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Download attachment: afl_rsardpq5_oyouytpm.jpg Last week, the Twins announced the seven players that will represent the organization in the Arizona Fall League this year. It’s been a busy month for this guy (hence the first blog post in three weeks), but with the end of the minor league seasons upon us, I thought it would be as good a time as any to weigh in on those seven selections. Notably, this group of Twins prospects is as talented as any team could have sent. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]As noted by Baseball America’s John Manuel, teams send players to the AFL for a variety of reasons – as a finishing school for their top prospects, to get extra innings or plate appearances for players that have missed time due to injury, or as a way to evaluate players for 40-man roster consideration prior to the Rule 5 draft in December. As highlighted below, each of these justifications is reflected in this year’s Twins selections to some extent. So without further adieu, I present my highly anticipated 2013 Twins AFL roster rundown. Players are listed in reverse order of prospect status (as determined by industry consensus), with their rank within the organization heading into this season in parentheses. A.J. Achter (NR): Drafted by the Twins in the 46th round of the 2010 draft out of Michigan State, Achter is a 25-year-old right-handed reliever who split this season between AA New Britain and AAA Rochester. Though he posted solid ERAs at both stops (2.21 in 36.2 IP at New Britain, 3.04 in 23.2 IP at Rochester), his peripherals leave much to be desired. Steadily declining strikeout rates combined with relatively high walk rates suggest that he has been outperforming his true talent, as reflected in his FIPs at each level (3.94 and 5.48, respectively). Achter will be entering his fourth full season with the organization, and thus he is likely pitching for a place on the 40-man roster. With a number of good relievers in the majors and several promising power arms in the system, Achter will have another month or so to show that he is worthy of a spot next season. Zach Jones (NR): Like Achter, Jones is a right-handed reliever drafted by the Twins out of college, taken in the 4th round of the 2012 draft out of San Jose State University. Jones spent the entire 2013 season with High-A Fort Myers, registering 14 saves while serving as the team’s dominant shutdown closer. In 48.2 IP, he posted a miniscule 1.85 ERA (2.71 FIP) and racked up an impressive 70 strikeouts compared to just 28 walks. Jones is an interesting choice by the Twins, given that he’s at least a year away from having to be added to the 40-man. Obviously the team has liked what it has seen from Jones this season, enough to want to see how he performs against the more talented bats of the AFL. He will likely open next season at AA New Britain, but before then will have one more chance to impress the organization. Trevor May (#10): May probably has more to prove in Arizona than any other player on this list. Acquired along with Vance Worley from the Phillies last year in the trade for Ben Revere, May’s 2013 has to be considered somewhat of a disappointment. In his second consecutive full season at the AA level, he put up very similar numbers to his 2012 campaign, posting impressive strikeout totals while again struggling with his control. Still, there were some positive signs. May’s strikeout rate actually increased slightly from the previous year (9.08 to 9.44), and though still way too high, he did manage to lower his walk rate (4.69 to 3.98). The 4.51 ERA is less than impressive, but it was likely due in large part to a .329 BABIP, as his 3.79 FIP is solid (especially considering the number of free passes issued). The right-handed May was promoted to AAA Rochester at the end of the season, and he is currently pitching out of the Red Wings bullpen during the playoffs. As a power pitcher, his arm likely profiles well as a late-inning reliever, but in an organization bereft of starting pitching he will be given every opportunity to start. May is already on the 40-man roster, and he will likely open next season as a starter with Rochester. A solid showing in the AFL would be a nice confidence builder heading into next year, and would be a positive end to an otherwise ho-hum season. More importantly, it would be a welcome sign for the pitching-starved Twins, who are counting on May to be part of the rotation solution. Max Kepler (#9): A native of Germany who signed with the Twins as a 17-year-old in 2010, Kepler heads to the AFL needing at bats. After missing the entire first half of the 2013 season due to an elbow injury, Kepler finally debuted at the end of June and spent the entire season at Low-A Cedar Rapids. Not surprisingly, he looked like a player trying to shake off the rust, slashing just .237/.308/.424 over the second half. He did flash impressive power though, hitting nine home runs and 11 doubles while driving in 40 runs in just 61 games. Heading into his fifth professional season, Kepler is a virtual lock to be added to the 40-man roster. Primarily an outfielder throughout most of his career, he is listed as a first baseman on the AFL roster. Given the depth of impressive outfield prospects within the organization and the lack of a clear-cut first baseman of the future, it is worth watching how Kepler handles himself at the corner. His bat profiles well at the position, and he is young and athletic enough that he should be able to make such a transition. If he remains in the outfield, Kepler could also represent a valuable trade chip in the team’s quest to acquire starting pitching. Regardless of which position he plays, how his bat fares against AFL pitching will likely go a long ways in determining where he opens up next season. Eddie Rosario (#7): Rosario has generally been overshadowed by uber-prospect Miguel Sano throughout much of his young career, and this year was no different. Still, the 21-year-old has emerged as a top-three second base prospect in all of the minor leagues – primarily thanks to his bat, which continues to hit at every level. After starting the season at High-A Fort Myers, Rosario earned a mid-season promotion by slashing .329/.379/.527 in 52 games. He was not quite as good at AA New Britain, but he still managed to post a solid .284/.330/.412 line over 70 games there (numbers that would have been even better if not for a tough August at the plate). With the surprising emergence of Brian Dozier this season, Rosario’s immediate future is somewhat unclear. If Dozier is able to duplicate his breakout 2013 performance next year, there may not be an immediate opening for Rosario at second base with the Twins. He is a converted outfielder, so there is always the option of moving him back to a corner spot. He has worked hard to become an adequate defender at the keystone, however, and his bat is obviously much more valuable as a second baseman. Assuming he continues to hit, either he or Dozier could be expendable as another asset to be used to acquire pitching. Regardless, it is a problem the organization would surely be glad to have. With a strong AFL, Rosario could be ticketed for AAA Rochester to start next season. Alex Meyer (#6): Meyer is the closest thing the Twins have had to a hard-throwing, top shelf starting pitcher since Johan Santana (apologies to Francisco Liriano). Acquired from the Nationals last year in the trade for Denard Span, the 6-foot-9 right-hander was generally as advertised this season, racking up plenty of strikeouts thanks to one of the best fastballs in the minor leagues. After opening the season in the Gulf Coast League, Meyer was quickly promoted to AA New Britain, where he posted a 3.21 ERA (2.73 FIP) with 84 strikeouts in just 70 IP. Sadly, he missed almost two months of the season with a bout of shoulder soreness (!!!), a quick reminder of the fragility of pitching prospects. Fortunately, Meyer was able to return for two short starts at the end of the season, and he looked every bit his dominant self. Meyer heads to the AFL in search of innings. If he can manage to finish the season healthy, he will likely open next year at AAA Rochester. Given the club’s complete lack of quality rotation pieces, Meyer is likely to get a long look by the coaching staff in spring training, and he is almost certain to debut sometime in 2014. Along with Kyle Gibson, he will be expected to lead a rebuilt starting staff on the next competitive Twins team, one that will hopefully make fans forget about the past three seasons. Byron Buxton (#2): What is there to say? He went .341/.431/.559 with Low-A Cedar Rapids, winning Midwest League MVP despite playing in just 68 games. Following a promotion to High-A Fort Myers, he struggled to the tune of .326/.415/.472 over 57 games. He combined to hit 19 doubles, 18 triples, and 12 homeruns. He drew 76 walks, drove in 77 runs, and scored 109 times. He added 55 stolen bases and gold-glove caliber defense at a premium position. He is just 19-years-old and is already the consensus number one prospect in baseball. All hail Lord Byron.The Glendale Desert Dogs play their AFL opener in just over a month. There are only 23 games left in this awesome Twins season. And 2014 is right around the corner. #p2c Originally published at pitching2contact Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Andrew-Albers-2.jpg On Saturday night, the Twins faced off against White Sox ace Chris Sale, widely regarded as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball in just his second season as a full-time starter. They countered with an “ace” of their own in Canadian lefty Andrew Albers, a 27-year-old journeyman who was pitching in the independent Can-Am league as recently as 2010. I refer to Albers as an ace not because I believe that he is one (far from it), but because just two starts into his career he was being hailed as one by fans and the media alike. Fortunately, the matchup served as a great reminder of what a real ace looks like, and he most certainly does not reside in the home team’s dugout. Albers’ story is truly unique, yet his is an all-too-familiar one for this particular Twins fan. While some take joy in watching him pitch, I am simply reminded of how many times I have seen this narrative play out before. His incredible debut aside, Albers is a fringe major league starter with almost no pedigree and below-average stuff. There is a reason he was not called up before P.J. Walters…or Samuel Deduno…or Kyle Gibson. There is a reason he was still pitching in the minor leagues at the age of 27. There is a reason he is not pitching for a contender. This is not to take anything away from Albers himself. His journey to the big leagues is an incredible one, and the perseverance he showed throughout that journey is commendable. His story and others like it are what separate baseball from every other sport, and what make it so uniquely special. He is a feel good story, and for his sake I hope he pitches like Cy Young for the rest of this season and beyond. But I am tired of feel good stories. It is fine to appreciate what Albers is doing, but let us not forget why he is in the position to do so in the first place. He is exactly the type of pitcher that turned the Twins into a perennial 90-loss team, and he is exactly the type of pitcher that they need to let go of in order to get out of their current mess and get back to respectability. As Aaron Gleeman tweeted last week, Andrew Albers is really nothing more than Scott Diamond, the man he replaced in the rotation. And Scott Diamond was really nothing more than Nick Blackburn, the back-end starter that came before him. And on and on it goes. I hope that people paid attention Saturday night, because after three years of batting practice, it is easy to forget what a good starting pitcher looks like. Chris Sale is an ace. Andrew Albers is not. How about we stop pretending otherwise. #p2c Originally published at pitching2contact Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Nunez21.jpg On Tuesday, Jason Parks and the Baseball Prospectus prospect staff wrote an article assessing the industry’s views on baseball’s four shortstop uber-prospects: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, and Addison Russell. That quartet, along with Red Sox rookie Xander Bogarts, comprise the strongest crop of shortstop prospects since the trio of Alex Rodriquez, Derek Jeter, and Nomar Garciaparra debuted in the mid-90s. If you’re one of the five teams lucky enough to boast one of these up-and-comers, your future at the position is in good hands. Alas, the Twins are not one of those teams. More than any other position on the diamond in recent years, the Twins have consistently struggled to get adequate production from the six-hole. Over the past decade, they have managed to field an above replacement shortstop in just four seasons, with Jason Bartlett’s 2007 representing the only truly good season of the bunch. In that time, just three teams have gotten worse offensive production from the position. The team’s incumbent, Pedro Florimon, sports a career line of .215/.275/.315 and is off to another blistering start this season (2-for-20), making it clear the solution does not reside on the current roster. It should come as no surprise, then, that on Monday the Twins acquired shortstop Eduardo Nunez from the Yankees in exchange for minor league pitcher Miguel Sulbaran. The 20-year-old Sulbaran, acquired last year from the Dodgers in exchange for catcher Drew Butera, had posted solid numbers over three minor league seasons, but had yet to advance past low-A ball. Though a decent get for the no-hit Butera, he failed to make the Twins top-30 prospects list according to Baseball America and was thus deemed disposable. So what do the Twins get in Nunez? Simply put, he is the anti-Florimon. [TABLE=width: 370] [/TD][TD]G AVG OBP SLG BB% K% wRC+ E DRS UZR UZR/150 Florimon 188 .215 .275 .315 7.3% 25.1% 62 26 19 0.7 0.6 Nunez 270 .267 .313 .379 6.2% 12.3% 86 30 -39 -30.6 -33.9 [/TABLE] Though his career numbers are anything but elite, Nunez clearly rates as an above-average offensive player at the shortstop position. He strikes out half as much as Florimon, gets on base more often, and hits for more power. On the other hand, whereas Florimon has been an above average defender, Nunez has cost the Yankees at least three wins in his brief time at short (though he’s been less awful at third base). Both players have committed an inordinate number of errors, but Florimon’s range has allowed him to compensate for those mistakes in a way that Nunez simply cannot. Essentially, the Twins now possess two flawed alternatives, and the question becomes which skill set the organization values more. Given that they made no real effort to acquire a replacement for Florimon this offseason, at least that we are aware of, the Twins clearly liked the glove enough to overlook his black-hole offense. On the other hand, this is the same team that is actively trying to convert a 34-year-old Bartlett into a backup outfielder and recently started Jason Kubel and Chris Colabello at the corners (in the same game!), so defense is clearly not the organization’s end-all, be-all. With Nunez ticketed for Triple-A, Florimon does not appear to be in imminent danger of losing his hold on the starting gig. However, if the defense slips at all and his average continues to hover around the Mendoza Line, the club would be wise to see what it has in Nunez in what figures to be another lost season. Lastly, it remains to be seen what effect the acquisition of Nunez will have on Danny Santana, the team’s ninth-rated prospect (via BA) and someone viewed as a possible replacement for Florimon down the road. Santana has proven incapable of drawing a walk and commits an obscene amount of errors, but he has hit at every level and had been starting for Triple-A Rochester to begin the season. If Nunez becomes the team’s new starting shortstop, a demotion to Double-A New Britain is not out of the question for Santana, who at this point in his development needs as many reps in the field as he can get. The trade for Nunez will likely have little impact on the future of the Twins, but if nothing else it serves as another story to follow in what will likely be another long season in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. #p2c Originally published at pitching2contact Click here to view the article

Download attachment: 165769904_8.jpg By virtually every measure, the Minnesota Twins are a very bad baseball team. Entering Friday night’s game against the Astros, the Twins offense ranked 21st in both runs scored and wRC+. The starting pitching has been horrific even by recent Twins standards, ranking last in ERA (5.18), last in xFIP (4.56) and last in strikeouts (302) by an embarrassing margin. Lastly, the defense has been mediocre (12th in DRS) to bad (27th in UZR), depending on your metric of choice. The team’s lone bright spot has been the bullpen, which has been great despite a lack of name recognition and chronic overuse from the outset (367.2 innings pitched, 5th most in MLB). So yes, the Twins have been bad this year.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Fortunately (or unfortunately, as I will argue), a few other teams have been worse. One of those teams is the Houston Astros, who are in town this weekend for a three game series at Target Field. The Astros know they are bad, and they are proud of it. From the moment GM Jeff Luhnow assumed control of the team, that has been the plan. Why? Because Luhnow is one of the smartest men in baseball, and he knows the best way to rebuild under the current CBA is to bottom out and embrace the suck. At 45-60 and virtually assured of a third straight 90-loss season, the Twins would be wise to do the same. That’s because in today’s MLB landscape, if you’re going to be bad anyway, you might as well strive to be the worst. With more and more teams locking up their best players to long-term contracts before they are able to hit the market, adding impact talent through free agency has never been tougher. Further, as evidenced by this week’s trade deadline (emphasis on dead), teams are valuing their controllable assets more than ever, making improvement via trade just as difficult. That leaves the international market and the draft as the only remaining avenues through which a team can dramatically improve its roster. The team that finishes lowest in the standings stands to benefit the most from both – in the form of the largest international spending pool and the number one pick in the amateur draft. Simply put, it pays to suck. Twins fans need look no further than Miguel Sano to understand the value that can be had on the international market. It’s an area they have taken some advantage of in recent years, but one where they could surely do more. As for the draft, the 2014 class figures to be much stronger than this year’s crop, with the top prize being NC State lefty Carlos Rodon – who likely would have gone number one to Houston over top selection Mark Appel had he been eligible as a junior. Of Rodon, Keith Law has stated: “[He] checks every box you might want to see in a potential first overall pick and projected No. 1 starter.” In other words, he’s just what the Twins roster doctor ordered. Heading into this weekend, the Twins trail the Astros by ten games for the worst record in baseball. They also have the White Sox, Marlins, and Brewers to contend with, among others. With 57 games remaining, the race for Rodon is still wide-open. So maybe you try to deal Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham to contenders, even if it means eating some salary to do so. Maybe you give Liam Hendriks one more shot to prove he can be a major league starter, and Chris Parmelee one more chance to show he can hit major league pitching. And maybe you give Joe Mauer a few more days off in the second half, to save those knees and extend his career behind the dish. I’m not advocating intentionally trying to lose, but it’s past time to worry about 2013. It’s time to embrace the suck. #p2c Originally published at pitching2contact Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Morales_Kendrys_Face_US_720.jpg On Sunday, the Twins announced the signing of free agent DH/1B Kendrys Morales to a prorated $12M deal that will pay him roughly $7.5M over the rest of this season. With Morales no longer tied to draft pick compensation following last week’s first-year player draft, the timing of the deal was not a surprise. The fact that he signed with the Twins, however, certainly qualifies as one. For one thing, it was widely assumed that Morales would sign with a contender, with the Yankees, Brewers, and Mariners all thought to be bidding for his services. Then there’s the fact that the Twins have seldom been one to make the flashy in-season move, with low-profile trades for Shannon Stewart and Matt Capps the rare recent exceptions. On the field, the addition of Morales represents a considerable upgrade at the DH position. Per Dan Szymborski, ZiPS projects Morales to hit .274/.327/.446 with 13 home runs and 50 RBIs the rest of the season, for an OPS+ of 113 and 1.2 WAR. His arrival means the end of the road for OF Jason Kubel, who was DFA’d to make room for Morales on the 40-man roster. Kubel had struggled mightily this season in his return to Minnesota, slashing .224/.313/.295 with just a single homerun in 176 plate appearances. Morales will likely garner the majority of at-bats at DH once he is ready, and his bat is a welcome addition for a team that ranks in the bottom third in baseball in Isolated Power. Regardless of Morales’ on-field impact, though, his signing is perhaps more significant in terms of the message it sends fans via the front office – namely, that the team has every intention of competing in 2014. While that is certainly admirable, is it realistic? After losing two of three at home to the Astros this weekend, the Twins (29-32) find themselves three games under .500 and in last place in the Central Division. That said, they are just five games behind the struggling first-place Tigers, and just 3.5 games back in the wild card race. As good as that sounds coming off three consecutive 90-loss seasons, it’s still just one win better than last year’s dumpster fire through as many games. Entering Sunday, their PECOTA for the remainder of the season record was 48-54, with just a 9.3% chance of making the playoffs – both numbers factoring in the addition of Morales. This year’s squad is certainly improved, but even with Morales the prospect of competing into September seems unlikely. Does this make signing Morales a bad move? Certainly not. The Twins took advantage of a chance to improve the team, and as noted by Szymborski, did so without hindering their rebuilding process. Ideally Josmil Pinto would have gotten some of those DH at-bats moving forward, but that seems unlikely given manager Ron Gardenhire’s insane proclivity against starting both Pinto and Kurt Suzuki together without a third catcher on the roster. Further, if the team falters over the next two months, they should be able to flip Morales to a contender at the deadline. As for the notion of contending in 2014? If that is really management’s belief, then it needs to be pursued with an unwavering eye on the organization’s future. That means promoting Alex Meyer and/or Trevor May in mid-June, cutting bait with the awful Kevin Correia in the process. It means recalling Sam Fuld as soon as he’s deemed healthy and sending Aaron Hicks to Rochester, where he can actually play every day and start adjusting to life as a full-time right-handed hitter. It means platooning Danny Santana at shortstop, since he has zero future in center and at least a chance at solidifying the former position until the anticipated arrival of Nick Gordon in 2017. And it means giving Pinto a majority of starts at catcher over the season’s second half, as Kurt Suzuki steadily falls back to earth. There is more than one way to execute a rebuild. The team in the visitor’s dugout this past weekend went with the burn-it-to-the-ground approach, but there’s nothing wrong with trying to contend in the midst of an overhaul. That said, there are certain players on this year’s Twins' teams who will likely be key contributors on the next legitimate contender, and their development must remain paramount as the season progresses. #p2c [/hr] Originally published at pitching2contact Click here to view the article

Download attachment: 680654_t607.JPG All hail Lord Byron. It took him awhile to adjust to his new Fort Myers digs, but Byron Buxton is once again doing man things. On Monday, Buxton was named Florida State League Offensive Player of the Week for the week ending July 28th, further cementing his status as the top prospect in baseball. To celebrate his latest achievement, he went 2-for-5 with a stolen base and a run scored Monday night, pacing the Miracle to a 5-0 win over Scott Baker (!!!) and the Daytona Cubs. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] After disrespecting Midwest League pitching to the tune of .341/.431/.559 as a member of the Cedar Rapids Kernels, including 32 steals, 33 extra-base hits and 56 RBI out of the leadoff spot, Buxton was finally promoted to Fort Myers on June 25th. After a slow start with the Miracle, he apparently remembered that he’s good at baseball, and now sports a strong .282/.338/.476 line over his first 29 games in the pitcher-friendly FSL. Monday night marked the sixth time in seven games that Buxton has tallied two hits, part of a 12-for-30 stretch. As noted by Baseball America’s Ben Badler in his Monday Prospect Notebook, Buxton is mounting a strong case for BA Minor League Player of the Year honors in his first full pro season. Badler further speculates that a promotion to Double-A by season’s end is a possibility for the 19-year-old, with a 2014 major league debut not out of the question. Not that the Twins could use the help or anything. #p2c Originally published at pitching2contact Click here to view the article

Download attachment: 4d8c123e3c1ad.image.jpg The Twins have announced that starting pitcher Nick Blackburn will have surgery on Friday to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee, likely ending both his season and his career in Minnesota. This will be Blackburn’s third procedure in the past calendar year, and he has been limited to just six minor league starts this season as a result. With the Twins holding an $8M club option for 2014, this will surely mark the end of his time with the organization. Blackburn debuted with the Twins in 2007, appearing in six games out of the bullpen as a September call-up that season. He cracked the starting rotation out of spring training the following year, and put together remarkably similar back-to-back solid campaigns in 2008-09. [TABLE=width: 520] [/TD][TD]W-L GS IP K% BB% HR/FB ERA FIP fWAR rWAR 2008 11-11 33 193.1 11.7 4.7 10.0 4.05 4.40 2.4 2.3 2009 11-11 33 205.2 11.1 4.7 9.4 4.03 4.37 2.9 3.2 [/TABLE] Blackburn parlayed those two years into a four-year contract worth $14M dollars, a deal that bought out all of his arbitration-eligible seasons with the Twins. Unfortunately for both parties, he was never the same pitcher after 2009 – put another way, he was awful. Over the next three years, Blackburn’s miniscule walk rates regressed, his already terrible strikeout rates got even worse, and his HR/FB rates skyrocketed. Factor in a lost 2013 season, and he has been worth a total of 0.1 WAR over the life of the deal via FanGraphs, and an even sadder -1.7 WAR according to Baseball Reference (!!!). For the Twins, the Blackburn contract represents one of the worst in a series of bad moves made by then general manager Bill Smith in his four stellar years at the helm. (Hat tip to Tsuyoshi Nishioka.) Though it seemed defensible at the time given his numbers over the previous two seasons, the deal was essentially a premature long-term investment in a starter incapable of striking batters out. (Blackburn’s 11.4% strikeout rate was 5th worst in MLB in that span, among a top 25 that also included future Twins fireballers Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia. … Just wow). It came at a time when smart front offices were increasingly valuing strikeout pitchers, and was a bad harbinger of things to come regarding the team’s approach to targeting and developing starting pitching. Indeed, perhaps no other pitcher epitomizes the “pitching to contact” philosophy that has so haunted the organization in recent years more than Nick Blackburn. For all of the hate that I have (perhaps wrongfully) directed at Blackburn over the past four seasons, part of me wanted to see him pitch at Target Field one last time this season. I hope that he bounces back from his most recent surgery and gets a chance to start for another organization next year – preferably in the AL Central, for obvious reasons. Regardless, his legend will live on in this blog and elsewhere throughout Twins territory as a symbol of the dark times, and his exit as a sign of better days ahead. Deuces Blackie. #p2c Originally published at pitching2contact Click here to view the article

Download attachment: 795015.jpg Seven starts into his major league career, things have not gone as planned for Twins rookie Kyle Gibson. Gibson entered this season as one of the organization’s most hyped pitching prospects in recent memory. That probably says more about the sad state of Twins starting pitching in recent years than it does about Gibson himself, given his likely ceiling as a number three starter and the fact he is less than two years removed from Tommy John surgery. Regardless, a lot was expected of him when he finally debuted at the end of June, and the early returns leave much to be desired. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Following his most recent outing, which saw him give up four runs on nine hits in just three innings against the lowly Astros, Gibson’s ERA sits at a robust 6.69 over 36.1 innings pitched (his 4.97 FIP and 4.51 xFIP are not quite as bad, but that’s just polishing the turd). Simply put, he has not been good. Gibson spent the first three months of the season at Triple-A Rochester, where he compiled a 3.01 ERA (2.96 FIP) with 79 strikeouts over 92.2 innings as one of the International League’s best pitchers. Despite a struggling major league rotation and earlier calls for his promotion, the Twins opted to keep Gibson in the minors until the end of June to work on his “consistency” (whatever that means). Thus, though he has made only seven major league starts, he has already thrown a combined 129 innings between Minnesota and Rochester this. Given this is his first full season following Tommy John, that number is not insignificant. This last point has led some to speculate that Gibson’s problems may be the result of fatigue, suggesting that it might simply be time to shut him down for the season. To be sure, only once in his career has he thrown more innings than this year – his 2010 rookie season in which he logged 152. But looking at his game-by-game PITCH/x numbers, his fastball velocity has largely remained consistent over each of his seven starts, and the same is true of his power sinker. A review of Gibson’s PITCHf/x usage data does reveal an over-reliance on his hard stuff of late. More than 75 percent of the pitches he’s thrown over his past four starts have been either the four-seam or sinking fastball. In that time, his use of the changeup has been cut by almost two-thirds, and he has stopped throwing his curveball entirely. Gibson’s recent dependence on the fastball may stem from his inability to consistently get ahead of hitters (a 50 percent first strike percentage, compared to the 60 percent MLB average). Collectively, the failure to change speeds and work ahead in the count likely go a long way toward explaining his struggles. Fortunately for both Gibson and the Twins, the numbers suggest that his poor performance to date might have just as much to do with bad luck as anything he is (or isn’t) doing. His high BABIP (.344), high HR/FB rate (14.3%), and low LOB rate (63.2%) all suggest he is considerably underperforming right now, and once those numbers regress to more typical levels, his results should see a corresponding improvement. Gibson’s reduced strikeout rate (11.9%) is of some concern, but his walk rate (7.1%) is solid and he is getting a lot of ground balls (51.9%), which is what you would hope for given his affection for the sinker. With an innings pitched limit rumored to be in the 130-150 range, Gibson may have only three or four more starts to improve his debut season. He is probably a lock to crack the 2014 roster no matter how well he finishes, but you can bet there will still be a lot of eyes watching in Twins territory. A couple strong starts to end the season would be welcomed by both Gibson and the Twins front office, which faces a third straight offseason full of questions about the starting rotation. #p2c Originally published at pitching2contact Click here to view the article

Download attachment: pedro.jpg On Opening Day 2013, Pedro Florimon became the eighth* different player in the past nine years to open the season as the Twins' starting shortstop. Since the departure of Christian Guzman in 2005, it’s been a perennial struggle to find the next fixture at what is generally, outside of catcher, the most important defensive position in baseball. Fortunately, in yet another season where little has gone right, the Twins appear to have filled their vacancy at shortstop for the foreseeable future. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Florimon has never been much touted for his offense and, true to form, his .236/.292/.351 line this year leaves much to be desired. However, that line looks much better in the context of .254/.307/.365 league averages, with shortstop traditionally being the weakest offensive position on the diamond. In fact, among his 26 contemporaries with at least 250 plate appearances this season, Florimon sits a respectable 16th in TAv** and 17th in wRC+***, ahead of players like Elvis Andrus and Starlin Castro, among others. Further, given his age (just 26), minor league numbers (slightly better across the board), and relative inexperience (just 131 games at the major league level), it’s not crazy to expect some modest improvement as he enters what should be his prime next season. But what really sets Florimon apart – and what will surely prove incredibly valuable in the years to come, as explained below – is his defense. Florimon committed his ninth error of the season Friday night in Seattle (tied for ninth most among shortstops), so he clearly has room to improve in terms of fundamentals. Having said that, advanced defensive metrics indicate he is already among the elite at his position. In terms of both UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) and DRS (Defensive Runs Saved), commonly cited as the two most accurate measures of defensive performance, Florimon rates as the second best shortstop in baseball – second only to Atlanta’s Andrelton Simmons, widely considered to be the best defensive shortstop in the game. He also ranks fourth in Baseball Prospectus’ FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average), behind Milwaukee’s Jean Segura, the aforementioned Simmons, and St. Louis’ Pete Kozma. Largely as a result of his defense, Florimon has already been worth 1.7 WAR per FanGraphs (and 2.2 WAR per Baseball Reference), making him the Twins' second-most valuable position player behind Joe Mauer this season. With Florimon earning just $495,000 this season and not eligible for arbitration until 2016, he is and will likely remain among the better values in all baseball over the next few seasons. Looking ahead to 2014 and beyond, the value of that defense cannot be overstated. The Twins likely second and third basemen of the future, Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano, both currently reside at Double-A New Britain. Both rank among the best offensive talents in the minor leagues at their respective positions, and it’s not out of the question that both could be playing at Target Field as early as 2014. What neither is known for, however, is excellence on defense, making the fielding range of whoever is playing between them at short that much more important. Assuming Rosario and Sano continue to develop as expected, Florimon projects as their ideal complement in the field, making him a key component of the rebuilding effort. With the fifth worst record in baseball through 100 games, the Twins' front office is surely in all-out evaluation mode, trying to determine which members of the current roster will be around to help stem the losing tide next season. Based on his performance thus far, Florimon is one player who seems virtually assured of a spot in the 2014 opening day lineup. After almost a decade of trying to plug the six-hole, it seems the Twins finally have found their guy. #p2c *The others: Jason Bartlett (2005, 2007), Juan Castro (2006), Adam Everett (2008), Nick Punto (2009), JJ Hardy (2010), Alexi Casilla (2011), and Jamey Carroll (2012)…yuck. **Per Baseball Prospectus, TAv is a measure of total offensive value scaled to batting average. ***Per FanGraphs, wRC+ is a park- and league-adjusted measure of a player’s total offensive value compared with league average. Originally published on pitching.2.contact Click here to view the article

Download attachment: sam.jpg On Sunday, the Twins claimed 32-year-old OF Sam Fuld off waivers from the Oakland A’s, designating OF Darin Mastroianni for assignment (again) to clear a spot on the team’s 40-man roster. Fuld can play all three outfield positions, with his light offensive game built on above-average speed and making contact. Aside from an extended stint with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2011, Fuld is a career backup who at this point is a fourth outfielder on a quality major league roster. The acquisition of Fuld was precipitated by the abrupt retirement of Jason Bartlett this past weekend. The decision to open the season with Bartlett as a backup outfielder was questionable at the outset, and his seven innings of action in left field proved as much. Bartlett’s retirement, along with the release of Alex Presley late in camp, left Mastroianni as the organization’s only true backup option in center field, and Mastroianni’s performance over the past week (0-for-12 with five strikeouts) was enough to convince the front office to pick up Fuld’s contract. Adding Fuld less than one month after Presley’s surprising release initially makes that move look even more curious, but in looking at their respective numbers it is clear the Twins simply valued Fuld’s skillset over Presley’s. Fuld is the superior defensive player, draws more walks and is a more accomplished baserunner, which apparently were enough to offset his lack of pop compared to Presley. That the Twins preferred the former should come as no surprise to anyone familiar with the organization’s core philosophies. [TABLE=width: 327] [/TD][TD]G AVG OBP SLG BB% K% wRC+ SB/CS UZR/150 Sam Fuld 373 .233 .312 .334 9.9% 13.7% 82 38/51 10.8 Alex Presley 243 .258 .297 .405 4.9% 19.6% 93 20/35 -3.7 [/TABLE] Of much more importance than Fuld versus Presley is the impact of Fuld’s addition on starting CF Aaron Hicks. Based on comments from Twins Assistant GM Rob Antony, the early struggles of Hicks apparently played a role in claiming Fuld. “I don’t think he’s inked in as our starting center fielder over the rest of the season,” Antony said of Hicks, noting that he needs to show continued improvement and become more consistent. Antony’s remarks notwithstanding, any notion of Fuld as a starting CF seems misguided at best, as evidenced by his .233/.312/.334 career line. Antony’s suggestion of a possible Hicks/Fuld platoon (with Fuld getting the majority of at-bats against right-handers) also makes little sense, as Fuld’s splits against RHP are actually worse over his career. Numbers aside, any decision to give Fuld considerable playing time over Hicks would demonstrate a serious lack of understanding on the part of the organization of where this team is and what its goals should be in 2014. Sitting at .500 through 18 games, the Twins are off to as good a start as anyone realistically could have hoped and few could argue that the on-field product hasn’t looked markedly improved over last year’s squad. However, thoughts of this team contending over 162 games are unrealistic, and the focus of this year must remain the continued development of players like Hicks. It is incumbent on the coaches and front office to determine which players on the current roster are going to be a part of the next contender, and with a certain center field prospect waiting in the wings this is probably more true of Hicks than anyone. Prior to last year, Hicks had shown the ability to adapt and succeed at every level of competition, and the Twins owe him every opportunity to do so at the major league level this season. Fuld can be a quality contributor on this Twins roster, and his addition fills an important hole left by the release of Presley. However, any true timeshare with Hicks in center flies in the face of baseball logic. Hopefully a decent start does not distract the organization from what is truly important this season – building towards the future. Originally published at pitching2contact Click here to view the article