Steve Lein

I definitely liked watching CES hit, but he was not a prospect I felt anything bad about losing in a trade for Tyler Mahle, even if the Twins only got a mixed bag of 16 innings out of that return. I honestly don't think there will be any reason to fret about losing CES in the future. I disliked Hajjar being a part of that package more than CES.

If he played a full season at that HR rate he would have led the FSL in home runs. Then there are the facts that the FSL leader hit 20 home runs in 444 plate appearances, and was 3 years older (and had a K-rate of almost 40%). Among players with 100 or more plate appearances, Rodriguez's OPS led the league by a .170 points! The batting average of the entire league was .233... This is a weird way to characterize his 2022 stats.

Are we including their history as the Washington Senators? Because if so, the omission of Walter Johnson is an egregious oversight 😉

Was just going to start a thread on this myself! Surprises for me are Martin at #4, Julien at #6, and Balazovic still at #7. These are guys I typically think Keith Law would be down on a lot more than this. That's encouraging, I think. I think I have a bias toward Salas, as I didn't really care he was added to the trade for Pablo Lopez. Lopez was the one pitcher from Miami I didn't want if Luis Arraez was the guy being traded. I still feel that way, but understand why the Twins would make the trade with Salas included.

The reason Prielipp is this high on the list without having thrown a pitch yet and only 28 innings in college, is because of the potential and ceiling he has (MLB.com has him #4 in the Twins system). It's a lot higher than every other pitcher in the organization, in my opinion, and he ranks higher than this on my own list for that very reason. Doesn't guarantee anything, but that's the fun with these rankings! As has been mentioned, without his injury he was going to be a top 5 pick because of a devastating slider and fastball that's better than being made out here (mid-90s peak velocity from a lefty is a lot less common than it is for righty's). The thing I'll be watching for with Prielipp this season is how his command and control have kept up after the surgery. If he's not walking many people and stays healthy, he's going to be a lot higher up this list and global lists hopefully as soon as midseason.

"Darby's Lot on 5th Avenue: Very similar in location to the above, and offers the added benefit of indoor ramp parking, although the cost is higher. We're going to continue to call it the Darby's Lot for now even though its namesake – the neighboring Darby's Pub and Grill – closed down after the 2022 season." I liked Darby's as a dive bar close to the stadium, but for all the beer-heads who like the area with Modist, Fulton, Inbound, & StormKing within a few blocks, Bricksworth Beer Company has moved into their space. I've had some good stuff from them, and the pizza is excellent!

Just as a point of clarification based on what you bolded. I was talking to the others responding to your comments with that line, not you 😉

As your Twins Daily AFL report writer, this is a very legitimate point. There seem to be several comments aimed at diminishing what Martin accomplished there when it should be quite the opposite, in my opinion. Just look at Royce Lewis. During the 2019 season with Fort Myers (then high-A) and Pensacola (double-A), Lewis hit a combined .236/.290/.371 with a well-below .700 OPS at both stops (.661 overall). Quite frankly, his bat never justified the bump to double-A, but I'm certain it happened because they wanted to get him out of the Florida State League environment and see what he'd do. Then he went and hit .353/.411/.565 (.976 OPS) in the AFL and took home the MVP award. There was some downtime in there (injury, Covid) afterward, but he didn't miss a beat from that when he got back on the field and made an immediate impact upon his major league debut. The parallel to Austin Martin is undeniable, here. Martin hit .241/.368/.317 (.685 OPS) in 2022 with Wichita (double-A), then went to the AFL and was undeniably one of the best players, hitting .374/.454/.482 (.936 OPS). The difference between them is Lewis displayed more power (9 2B's, 3 HR) and drove in runs (20 RBI) from the middle of the lineup, while Martin got on base, created more havoc while there, and scored runs from the top of the lineup. Different types of hitters for sure, but they accomplished basically the same things in their own ways. You were likely already wrong once about the AFL with Lewis, don't be that guy again with Martin. 😂

Remember, Duran will not be able to "unleash the nastiest repertoire [you] have ever seen" as a starting pitcher. Those 99-103's will have to be scaled back to 94-98's, etc... Don't bite the hand that's feeding you.

Hate it. I've been all over the boards stating that Pablo Lopez was the one supposedly available Miami starting pitcher I would NOT trade Luis Arraez for. I care very little that they also got an A-ball "top prospect" back at this point.

I'd consider your trade proposal for like, Jesus Luzardo or Edward Cabrera and something else (Sanchez/Meyer), or for Eury Perez (not happening). But not for Pablo Lopez. Lewis on his own is too much for a mid-to-back-end starter. I don't know why anyone has this idea that Lopez is better than a #3 pitcher. He's not. He'd be like the #4 starter on this Twins team, at best, in my opinion. I'm glad the Twins supposedly rejected a straight 1-for-1 deal around Arraez, because they should have.

I don't really share this concern. The Twins already demonstrated they have rotation depth they can tap this past season to cover any inevitable injuries. Josh Winder, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson; Maeda you mention will also be back. I'm not acquiring Lopez because insurance for this is the idea around what the team gains. In fact, I'm flat-out not targeting him because he might be no better a pitcher. I agree 100% that I don't want Lopez if Arraez is the cost. Have to aim higher with a perennial-batting-champ-contender type hitter, IMO.

I don't have a link or anything to share, but I'm fairly certain while covering the AFL this year, I saw mentions of the Twins/him kind of taking the Buxton approach: Okay we tried, just go out and do your thing now. But I also think the injuries played a big role in his "underperformance" this season. After taking a month off he came back and finished September with an .827 OPS. Then he rode that momentum into a .936 OPS in the AFL. I said this to summarize his performance there in the last of my AFL updates: "I’ve followed this league for a long time, and just like Royce Lewis’ MVP campaign of 2019 (where he had a .975 OPS after a .661 in the regular season), this performance absolutely should restore some prospect luster for Austin Martin. Now the Twins just need to find him a position, but I can see him functioning as a very athletic super-utility type when it comes to defense in the majors, much like how Luis Arraez got his start."

Personally, I highly prefer any of these options over Pablo Lopez, especially if Luis Arraez is the cost of doing business. While I don't think Lopez is a bad pitcher by any means, I don't think he is better, nor has the potential to be better, than Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Bailey Ober, or Kenta Maeda. He's more of the same. Mid-rotation at his best (he was not particularly good for most of the 2022 season). I'd rather have the potential of these other Marlin's guys to get more than that, and the difference between 2 years of control or 4+ also looms large.

I disagree... Lopez is the last of the supposedly available Miami pitchers I would want, especially for Luis Arraez. I started a whole thread on trading for Marlins pitching ->

What I see in the Kepler/Gallo situation as a comparison, is if Gallo hits .200, he'll have an OPS of about .800. Where if Kepler hits .200, he'll OPS around .700. I think Kepler is the better overall defender, but Gallo is no slouch either. Kepler gets graded top of the charts in Outs Above Average, while Gallo gets better marks on his OF reads and has elite arm strength (Kepler's arm gets rated okay, but I've never been impressed by it). I don't think we'll notice much as far as right-field defense is concerned if Kepler is sent off. But they could get a bigger bat with Gallo... (no, I'm not counting on it) The issue with Kepler and why I think they want to deal him, is he does have some value, but they also have several guys on pre-arbitration salaries that play his same position (corner outfield). Many of those guys also have the potential to be better hitters. So the question is do you want Kepler to stay around to take opportunities away from Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner, Royce Lewis, and Austin Martin (etc...)? Or do you want to go with your young guys with untapped potential and save some money in the process? (I say all this knowing the signing of Gallo kinda does the same thing as rostering Kepler, but you have to clear some space somehow, and it appears the Twins would rather bet on Gallo to start).

I would have no issue substituting a Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner type instead of Kepler. Though I'm going to ask for more from the Marlins in that case. In my opinion, Luis Arraez and a lottery ticket is enough for one of the pitchers, but I don't want that pitcher to be Lopez. Anything else gets a Dax Fulton or up to Max Meyer/Sixto Sanchez added into the conversation.

This is my feeling on Lopez as well. I want an opportunity/chance to improve the top of the rotation and Lopez doesn't do that for me. Then the 2 years of control vs 4+ thing basically takes him off the table in my mind.

Maybe. But the Marlins have Sandy Alcantara, Sixto Sanchez, Eury Perez, Jesus Luzardo, Max Meyer, Trevor Rogers, Braxton Garrett... And the Marlins I'm pretty certain have said they'd listen on Cabrera. I've said multiple times I don't understand the valuations on these guys when it comes to BTV. My proposal to kick this off, for example, comes off as a major OVERPAY, from the Twins. For your Eury Perez example, Arraez, Kepler, AND Larnach still isn't close from the Twins side. There's a bit of embarrassment of riches when it comes to young, controllable pitchers on their team. Similar to the Twins in a way when it comes to corner outfielders. There can be a match!

After Correa's signing, I have to believe there is a trade for a pitcher coming. While I don't like the idea of trading Luis Arraez, I think it makes too much sense now. Mine to start: Luis Arraez Max Kepler Jordan Balazovic/etc... for Edward Cabrera Dax Fulton I don't want the two years of Pablo Lopez, especially if Arraez is the cost, but you do you!

At a minimum, I think you're devaluing Luis Arraez here. I don't think BTV is gospel, but Arraez is the best player on their site in any trade involving Marlins pitchers Pablo Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera, or Max Meyer. Kepler/etc... is the tax. Edit: Actually Lopez is, I remember being confused by their valuation of him in comparison to all the others. Because Lopez is the one I'd want the least, and he has by far the least team control left.

This is all the Twins 40-man roster and injury issues during the 2022 season coming home to roost. Enlow, in my opinion, has the potential that you don't jettison for what they added. But, there's not a whole lot for them to jettison at this point, even if there are names there I would have DFA'd instead. I'd be extremely surprised if he isn't claimed.

"5. Target Field upped the fanfare this season. Late in the 2022 season, Target Field began dimming the lights during Jhoan Duran’s entrance song. To my knowledge, the Twins have never done that for a pitcher, especially one who is not a closer. Jorge Lopez also got the dimmed lights treatment with his horror movie-themed walkout. Walkout songs have always been a bit of a show (remember Fernando Rodney's electric entrance?), but they became their own spectacle this season due in part to the Mets’ Edwin Diaz’s viral walkout song "Narco." Pitcher entrances across the league became their show within the show this season, and the Twins kept pace. " While I loved this (re)development, it in fact is not the first time, or the best they have done with, something like this for their closer ?. Apologies, but that title belongs to Jon Rauch and his entrance to Metallica's "Wherever I May Roam" during the inaugural 2010 season. This video doesn't do it justice, but it was far more epic than Duran's also good one.

The type of deal I want to see is something along the lines of: Max Meyer Edward Cabrera (Total Value 35.9) for Luis Arraez Trevor Larnach Marco Raya Low minors lotto ticket (Total Value 46.30+) I don't buy it's an overpay by the Twins, but Arraez is the best player in the deal according to BTV's values. Heck, Dax Fulton is another name I'd be interested in from the Marlins, in place of either name above, for a deal like this, too.

It kind of baffles me the values given by BTV for these guys. Lopez is worth significantly more than Cabrera, Meyer, or Luzardo, for some reason. I would think the years of control difference would more than make up for any stock placed in an established track record. Don't get me wrong, it's not like I think Lopez is a bad pitcher, but having only those 2 years of control left is a big deal. If Arraez is the guy you're trading, I want someone like Cabrera far more than Lopez.