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mikelink45

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Blog Entries posted by mikelink45

  1. mikelink45

    Wow, we did that?

    By mikelink45,

    Here we are December 6, 2018. We are almost a week after my birthday and what a week. I waited 73 years for all this to happen.
     
    We fired Molitor - he mishandled the bullpen which had all of three good relievers and we needed 4 per game. We let go the pitching coach even though Gibson and others out performed the past. We kept the hitting coaches even though our superstar, can't miss projects continued to flail at the plate. We fired Pickler the guy the front office said would provide new age stat information to the manager. We kept the bench coach who obviously shoulders no blame for the season that got Molitor fired.
     
    Then we lost Johnny Field to the cubs and Oliver Drake to the Rays even though they were good enough to prevent minor leaguers from auditioning in September. Great move. We showed other teams how good the players we did not want were. Then to show that we cared about pitching we signed Erasmo Moreno and Preston Guilmet to be our new right hander pitchers. Some real action to get November warming up.
     
    Randy Cesar was signed to give 3B depth, Zack Weiss signed to give even more right handed depth, and LaMonte Wade was put on the 40 man even though he was not good enough to come up in September. And Nick Gordon was added to the same 40 man even though he too was not good enough for September - glad we kept Field and Oliver on that roster.
     
    We traded Nick Anderson to the Rays and got another 3B Brian Schales, to push Sano. He must be worried that is two 3B players in one month.
     
    Having a strong BP we released Alan Busenitz. Then we added Luis Arreaz to the 40 man because we did not know Schoop would be there for the next season and we signed C J Cron and released Robbie Grossman making a completing unremarkable change in our batting talent.
     
    Then December came and we though that Ronald Torreyes should challenge Ehire - thereby pushing our talent level on more notch towards the championships we dream of.
     
    Is anyone else excited?
  2. mikelink45
    Bear with me now - I am about to go off the baseball rails here. I read all the speculation, all the projections of player salaries and all the moaning from our team and fans and the rest of the teams and their fans so I am going to say something no one wants to hear. We do not need an Ace, we do not need a superstar! There it has been said. The follow up to that is - and I want us to win the series!
     
    Okay, now for my reasons. Lets start with the easiest - the Ace. The Ace in the 1800s pitched much more than any current pitcher. Old Hoss Radbourne won more games - 59 than any pitcher starts in a season. He was the triple crown of pitching leader - 1.38 earned run average, 59 wins and 441 strikeouts. I know we are all about strikeouts now - look at that total. And he pitched 12 years! Okay that was an Ace that made a real difference.
     
    Then we got to the 30 win era where this was the standard that really set out the ACE - Denny McClain in 1968 was the last to win 30. There were 21 thirty game win seasons with most in the early 1900s. And they still had arms on their bodies the next year. These thirteen pitchers were also Aces of course Denny took to Aces in the gambling dens and ruined his career.
     
    Then came the twenty game winners - with Warren Spahn winning 20 - 13 different years during his career - despite losing years to serving in the war. His last 20 game year came in my high school graduation year - 1963. He and the other 20 game regulars were Aces. On this list of twenty game winners is Nolan Ryan - yes he also lost a lot, but he was the real leader into the strikeout era and he also was a complete game pitcher.
     
    Then we went to five man rotations and now to openers (the shame) and the argument that wins don't matter. The above pitchers also completed games - Cy Young completed 749 games - yes he won and lost games. And he earned his wins just like the other Aces above.
     
    Now, the Ace not only pitches one of five games, but only 6 - 7 innings in most outings. I see Kershaw get $35m a year and think - why? He cannot even move them forward in the off season and his speed is diminishing.
     
    Sign two number twos and three number threes and we will be better off than signing a one, running out of money and ending up with most games being toss ups or worse. Of course you can also make that a different combinations of 2s,3s,and 4s, but don't break the bank on the ACE.
     
    Then there is the Bryce Harper/Manny Machado madness. Who in the world is worth the kind of money they are talking about. Living in MN I have heard for years about how the Mauer contract impacted the team ability to sign other players (I know it was an excuse, a joke, not real), but 300 - 400m is not a joke. Look at Mike Trout - the greatest player of our current era. By himself he cannot lead them to a championship season. Nor has Machado or Harper shown that they can either.
     
    Each player is up to bat 3 - 5 times a game - that is all and if no one is on base they cannot drive them in. If they swing for the fences and have a crap average like Harper or Sano or Morrison did last year you get 30 HRs - which if they are spread out give you 30 games of production and 132 of small or no production. In the field only the catcher and first baseman are involved in the majority of fielding plays, so even in the field there is limited production most of the time.
     
    Since WAR is such a popular figure think about the numbers the best players puts up. No one is worth 80 or 90 WAR, the great ones are 10 and there are few is any each season.
    This individual game is still a team game and if the team does not pitch, field, hit, the team does not win and wins are what we want. Look at the Angels other player - HOF to be - Pujols. Tell me his worth to the team, tell me how that contract impacts the team.
     
    No - sign a lot of good players, good fielders, good on base average, good production people, steal some bases, be fast and be involved. It is the team with production 1 - 9, rotation 1 - 5, even slightly above average at all positions that wins. Not the team with the biggest star.
  3. mikelink45

    Rebuilding? Really?

    By mikelink45,

    This is not rebuilding - it is prolonged agony. A rebuild from what - an accidental year that got us blown out of the play offs, Since 2010 we have lost 90 or more 5 times. We have been above 500 twice. We have averaged being 22 games behind for the last 8 years. We have seen attendance go down 7 out of 8 years.
     
    We have been 4 or 5th place 5 times and second 3 times - does second in the Central count?
     
    We have been in limbo or purgatory. Some teams get better when they get worse because of their draft place, but we always have to wait two years - now it is for Lewis and Kiriloff.
     
    We rank number 16 in OBP, 19th in Slugging, 18 in OPS - we are 94 in OPS+ and 23rd in HRs, but only 16 in Ks! If you have lots of Ks I thought that the theory was you would have lots of HRs. What did I miss? Of course if you do not hit the long ball - there is always speed - we ranked 28 in SB.
     
    So pitching! Here the BP gives us position number 23 in saves. But good news we are up to 16 in Ks! And we rank #20 in ERA+. But maybe we can just keep them off base with ground balls and great fielding - nope. We are #24 in WHIP. Our starters gave us a +2 WAR ranking us 15 - middle of the pack - at least it is better than the rank of #25 in RP WAR (-4.5)
     
    In wins above average by position we rank #20 overall at - 6.3 WAR. #18 in total pitching WAR (-2.8) which is brought down by our Bullpem ranking #25 at (-4.7). NOTE THAT ALL THESE RANKINGS ARE FOR MLB, NOT JUST THE AL.
     
    In non-pitching we rank number 19. So go around the diamond:
    Catcher 16 (-0.6)
    1st Base 24 (-1.6) who wanted to bring Mauer back?
    2nd Base 21 (-0.7)
    SS 24 (0.0) Despite the fact that Eduardo Escobar played there half the year and had 2.2 WAR while he did. What does that say about Polanco?
    3B 23 (-0.7)
    LF 7 (1.3) There is no minus! Way to go Rosario.
    CF 17 (-0.3)
    RF 10 (0.3) Not great, but no minus.
    DH 27 (-0.8) My god, we can't even get a plus from DH?
     
    All of those from Baseball Reference - https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2018.shtml
     
    So what are we rebuilding? We have 40% of a rotation, one decent reliever, two OFs who hold their own and a catcher that is improving.
     
    Yes I am a skeptic. All our deals, our drafts, our promise has amounted to an 8 year purgatory. Tell the FO to call me when we have at least half of a really good team. In all of MLB we were in 19th place last year, 30 games behind the Red Sox, In AL only we were number 9 and five of the six teams behind us were tanking. Even in just our division we were 13 GB! And Cleveland ranked number 5 in the AL and you know how well they did in the playoffs.
  4. mikelink45

    Oh man, those stats!

    By mikelink45,

    So the computer guys told us this would be smart, we see the trend and we jump on it. Use relievers every day! Let's look at a couple simple stats that are within my grasp. 162 games - average reliever use per game now 3 - put in an opener and it might be 4, but lets not worry about those games where Giminez came in or other extended innings. Just 162 games times three - 486 relief appearances. So we carry 13 pitchers, 5 are starters. 8 relief pitchers divided into 486 means 60 relief appearances per pitcher - forget those who are so valuable that they are out more often.
     
    Check out historical use on Baseball Reference - https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Pitcher#Historical_Usage and you can see the various trends in pitching from the every other game starters of the 1800s to the four man rotation and lots of complete games to five man rotation and a growing requirement for relief pitchers. The more pitchers the less they are used and the more relief we need. Tommy John surgery increases, pitchers are using pitch counts but no one knows whether it is the pitch count or the frequency of pitching that matters. How did Warren Spahn and Juan Marichal and all those great pitchers survive? Must be some stat there that can answer.
     
    Trends have always made us smarter. Remember when Coca Cola came out with New Coke and soon the non-stat drinkers rejected it as well as Crystal Pepsi and its clear cola. Or maybe your family had an Edsel - talk about a car of the future! Or more recently we had Netflix divide into Netflix and Quikster - don't remember - understandable. The streaming only branch was flushed down the stream.
     
    There was the Apple Newton that was an instant success followed by an instant failure, it just did not deliver, kind of like the sixth man in your bullpen rotation. Then there is that weight reducing fat - Olestra - that Lays used to produce Wow chips! In one year the FDA called a halt, of course the customers did too when they learned that the way that they lost weight was because it induced diarrhea. Kind of like changing pitchers 3 times in an inning induces a coma.
     
    Two giants sat down with their marketing stat heads and combined to produce a soda bottle product called Mazagran - coffee tasting soda - within the year the stats called sales numbers forced this Starbuck/Pepsi product off the market. And it would have been an excellent opener to start your day. I will not even comment on the attempt by Colgate - the toothpaste company - to put out a line of frozen foods. Did they clean your teeth when you were done? We will never know.
     
    But more recent and perhaps more important to this audience - Playboy decided to drop nudity - where are those geniuses. Did they really believe people bought it for the articles? Well they don't now - those geniuses are back in the minor leagues and nudity is on the rise again.
     
    So now we have a trend that created a trend - fifth starters were not much better - if at all - than the bullpen guys so suddenly we evolved to bullpenning. The term does not mean anything, but it is a trend, just like launch angle and increased strikeouts. Does that mean anything to the game? Well strikeout require more pitches which means the pitch count is reached earlier so we must pull the starter and bring in the reliever. More pitches, more game delays, more time before the game ends, longer games and the commissioner wants to figure out how to change this. Good luck.
     
    Check out various trends with this excellent set of graphs - https://michaelbein.com/baseball.html then look at the graph on this site for length of games and runs scored - https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/1/29/7921283/baseball-game-length-visual-analysis and then we ask the question - do people want longer games with less runs scored? Do people want to see more pitchers and less runners on base?
     
    As an old guy I love Mike Trout - “The two biggest stats to me are runs scored and RBI,’’ says two-time MVP Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels, the game’s greatest player in the midst of his finest season. “I mean, that’s how you win games right, scoring the most runs?’’
     
    Bob Nightengale has an interesting article - https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2018/06/20/mlb-bad-baseball-attendance-strikeouts/718162002/ - that looks at trends and solutions.
     
    So, if the trends are hurting baseball, baseball might want to buck the trends, limit relief pitcher use, reduce the innings, move back the fences, reduce the innings. I do not know the answer, but as a former tax accountant I can tell you that numbers can prove many things, but they cannot make the game more enjoyable, unless you are just into APBA, Rotisserie, Fantasy, X-box, etc; nor can they change the human body. Use stats, but don't go too far I really want to see a baseball game - not relays from the bullpen.
  5. mikelink45
    The Dodgers may win. The Red Sox could see their magic disappear - this is baseball after all, but there are some story lines that I have really liked and wanted to point out. One of which is that talent - not analytics wins games. Sorry Aaron Gleeman, but when we retire APBA and other games and get to the teams and games that count there is much more than probability. So what are my take-aways so far?
     

    Relief pitchers can't match great starters. Milwaukee was a fun experiment in defying the tradition of starters and relievers, but in fact their relievers wore out. This over emphasis on Bullpen arms has a draw back because no one can pitch 162 games - sorry Mike Marshall I know you tried. And by the end of the year the accumulated games wear the pitchers down. Did anyone see the same Jeffress in the play-offs that succeeded in the regular season? The key games for the Brewers were when Chacin and Miley started and took care of some innings to take pressure off the pen. The Red Sox Bullpen has been lights out - but Price and Sales took some innings off the board first. The Dodgers got too smart with all its match ups and not only called on Madsen one too many times but shut down Baez when he had the momentum to stop the Sox.
    Strikeouts do matter. Look at the Red Sox. Down two strikes they do not give in, they do not go for the big whiff, they put the ball in play and then something happens. Of course it does not work every time, but a strike out is an out - every time. Red Sox players are not without power, but they are also not without speed and excitement. This is a team exuding what the great Rickey Henderson once had. They upset the other team, the pitchers, the catchers, the managers.
    The Dodgers have shown in the first two games that you should throw out the book sometimes. They put their good hitters on the bench for match ups that have lesser results. Their formula looks old, although home cooking could fix that.
    I really do think that the best teams from each league are playing each other and that is great. While I rooted for the A's and the Brewers, their styles were fun and unconventional, I am still pleased to see the teams with the best stars and the best organizations playing for the championship.

     
     
    My last note for the Twins - forget the Kershaw sweepstakes. He is aging and will still want a long term contract that in the end will look like the Pujols deal.
  6. mikelink45
    In an era when bullpen has higher profile that starters it is surprising to see a team that prides itself on analytic decisions trade away the pitcher with the most potential and raw stuff to the American League's best team. Yes we got two prospects, but they are still raw and a gamble while Pressly is 29 and in his prime.
     
     
    Of course all our pitching gurus must answer for the disparity between his 3.40 Twins ERA (not bad) and his 0.77 Astro ERA (amazing). Or his whip - 1.364 Twins and 0.60 Astros.
     
     
    To quote the NYT - "Pressly rarely betrays any signs of emotional turmoil, whether it emanates from a poignant moment or from the stakes of a game heating up. He is a major component in a revamped Astros bullpen for the defending world champions, who had so many fraught moments last October that they had to turn to starting pitchers to close games." https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/15/sports/baseball/astros-red-sox-alcs-ryan-pressly.html?emc=edit_th_181016&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=275511921016
     
     
    He generated twice as much WAR in 1/2 as many games with the Astros. "Only three pitchers who threw at least 60 innings this season have had a swing-and-miss rate higher than Pressly: Craig Kimbrel of the Red Sox, Edwin Diaz of Seattle and Josh Hader of Milwaukee, three of baseball’s elite relievers."
     
     
    "Pressly is the latest pitcher to experience a renaissance in Houston, which has been at the forefront of baseball’s analytics revolution. Charlie Morton has posted the two best years of his career, Gerrit Cole allowed fewer hits and struck out more than he ever has — leading baseball with 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings — and Justin Verlander has rediscovered his Cy Young form at 35. All three were All-Stars this season."
     
     
    Yes our FO is gaining an unearned reputation as analytics leaders, but the proof is in the way the roster is constructed and the players develop. So far not so good Now we will seek to build a weak bullpen by hitting the FA market and hoping we find a guy who can make the pen better - a guy like Ryan Pressly.
  7. mikelink45

    Bullpen BS

    By mikelink45,

    What do we make of the Twins bullpen in this era where bullpens have supplanted starters? Closers, Openers, Lefty and righty specialists, relievers for innings 5,6,7,8,9. Lots of warm ups, lots of wasted time. In my world we would not have openers and we would limit the teams to 4 pitchers per nine innings which would really make the manager think about who to bring in and when - if they are on their third pitcher in the sixth inning. We might have to teach starters to learn what starters in the past learned – how to conserve themselves, who to put max effort into, and to think about quick outs instead of 6 – 9 pitch outs. But my dream does not count so what should the Twins do about their 2019 – 2020 Bullpens?
     
    We have the following players in our current Bullpen:
    Belisle – overused – even if it is once a week or once a month
    Hildenberger – overused and should not be in the ninth
    Reed – Can he be what he once was?
    May – just to make everyone angry, I will tell you I think he is overrated.
    Drake – Not on a good team, but are we a good team?
    Magill – Nice surprise can he keep it up?
    Busenitz – running out of chances
    Rogers – finishing the best of all
    Mejia – Not sure what to think of him in BP
    Goya- Our opener specialist
    Duffey – Hope your next team can get you effective again
    Curtiss – okay, but
    Vasquez – Nice to see the advance, but do they really expect him in MLB next year?
    Gimenez – I know he is a ringer
    Which ones do you want to keep? They are all on the 40 man roster. Who would you DFA – I would choose Gimenez, Belisle, Busenitz, Duffey as my for sure DFA group, but would not mind if we could move up from Curtiss, Magill, and Drake.
     
    Then in the minor leagues we have:
    A different Reed
    Anderson
    Moran
    Stashak
    Molina
    Harper
     
    All were included in Seth Stoths minor league reliever of the year. Only Vasquez, Moya, Curtiss, and Busenitz were called up from the entire list. Why not all of them in September? I know service time, etc. Anyone you want to predict will be on the roster in the next two seasons? Go ahead and move starters in if you want, I have not seen enough of the young pitchers to want Gonsalves, Stewart, Little, DeJong in my pen.
     
    Here is the Relief pitcher Free Agent Class for your shopping pleasure – but remember that very few relief pitchers can sustain their effectiveness and seldom to they come in and shine for their new club:
    Adam Ottavino (33 years old, 2.2 WAR)
    Jeurys Familia (29, 1.8)
    David Robertson (34, 1.3)
    Craig Kimbrel (31, 1.2)
    Sergio Romo (36, 1.0)
    Jesse Chavez (35, 1.0)
    Oliver Perez (37, 0.8)
    Jake Diekman (32, 0.7)
    Tony Sipp (35, 0.7)
    Brad Brach (33, 0.7)
    Zach Duke (36, 0.7)
    Joe Kelly (31, 0.6)
    Justin Wilson (31, 0.6)
    Mark Melancon (34, 0.5) -- Can opt out of the two years and $28 million remaining on his contract.
    Tyler Clippard (34, 0.4)
    Andrew Miller (34, 0.4)
    Kelvin Herrera (29,0.4)
    Tony Barnette (35, 0.3)
    Aaron Loup (31, 0.3)
    Bud Norris (34, 0.3)
    Jonny Venters (34, 0.3)
    Adam Warren (31, 0.3)
    John Axford (36, 0.2)
    Greg Holland (33, 0.2)
    Shawn Kelley (35, 0.2)
    Jerry Blevins (35, 0.1)
    Santiago Casilla (38, 0.1)
    Fernando Salas (34, 0.0)
    Ryan Madson (38, 0.0)
    Zach McAllister (31, 0.0)
    Blake Wood (33, 0.0)
    Daniel Hudson (32, -0.1)
    Zach Britton (31, -0.1)
    Jorge De La Rosa (38, -0.1)
    Jeanmar Gomez (31, -0.1)
    AJ Ramos (32, -0.2)
    Jim Johnson (36, -0.2)
    Matt Belisle (39, -0.2)
    Randall Delgado (29, -0.2)
    Boone Logan (34, -0.3)
    Brad Ziegler (39, -0.3)
    Cody Allen (30, -0.3)
    Hector Santiago (31, -0.4)
    Peter Moylan (40, -0.4)
    Junichi Tazawa (33, -0.6)
    Blaine Boyer (37, -0.9)
    Josh Tomlin (34, -1.3)
    David Phelps (32, N/A) -- Hasn't appeared in the Majors in 2018.
    Joaquin Benoit (41, N/A) -- Hasn't appeared in the Majors in 2018.
    https://www.mlb.com/news/2019-mlb-free-agents/c-293292274
     
     
    Not easy because we are not blessed with great arms like some teams and we have not shown an ability to develop them. With the average now close to 4 pitchers per game per team and going up can we get by with 8 relief pitchers – five starters and that makes 13. Can relief pitchers come in every other game? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-bullpens-took-over-modern-baseball/
     
    Don Mattingly got steamed https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/mlb/miami-marlins/article218196470.html on September 15 when the two teams – Phillies and Marlins used a total of 15 relievers in one game! No pitcher recorded 6 outs in the game.
     
    So what happens next – that was a September open roster game, but will we start to see rosters with a second catcher, a utility man and the rest pitchers? Stay tuned.
     
    Give it a try – who will you depend upon?
  8. mikelink45

    Developing players

    By mikelink45,

    A lot of us were shocked by the Buxton treatment this year, from playing him with an injury to denying him his September call up. We were almost equally shocked to see Sano sent to A ball and when he returned people talked about him looking a little thinner, but then the season played on and before ending with another injury he resorted to the same 200 hitting occasional Home Run hitter.
     
     
    September call ups included Matt Belisle and a trade for Gimenez, more time for Johnny Field and not much excitement outside the young pitchers and that wonderful Opener experiment. Gonsalves, our top pitching prospect has stunk, Littell who has been called up a couple of times continues to stink (I know that they want to make that trade look good for the FO). Stewart has improved as we continue to pitch him against the mighty Tigers and Busenitz has demonstrated that AAAA is his best hope (when will they open that league?).
     
    Of course there is one rookie who looked really good early in the Season, but he could not even be called up to toss a couple BP sessions - Romero.
     
     
    Among hitters only Astudillo has appeared and that is because we have our original starter out for the season, our next starter out with a concussion, our first reserve traded for last years reserve and only Astudillo available for actually crouching behind the plate.
     
     
    No look at Rooker or Gordon or any other potential hitters. So how good is our player development? I just read the Athletics Matthew Kory in the season ending power ranking and his comments really jumped out at me.
     
     
    "One of the things that good teams do is draft talented players, develop them in the minors, and turn them into stars when they get to the big leagues. The Red Sox have done that with Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts. The Indians have done that with José Ramírez and Francisco Lindor. The Astros have done that with Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman (and George Springer) (and José Altuve). The Twins should have done that with Miguel Sanó and Byron Buxton… but they haven’t. Despite loads of talent, Sanó is barely playable and Buxton supposedly isn’t even ready for a September call-up. If you’re looking for the difference between Minnesota and every playoff team in baseball, that’s it in a nutshell."
  9. mikelink45

    Want to play Catch - er?

    By mikelink45,

    Okay what happens at catcher in the next two years? First we have the veteran – Castro – coming back from his injury. Not a great bat, but we got him for his framing. Is his framing still so important and more important is it still better than Garver?
     
    Garver started out with lots of question marks. So many doubted his defense, so much that the team was willing to sacrifice his bat for Bobby Wilson. But Wilson was traded – is Garver better? We added Gimenez who, like Wilson, has a very questionable bat, but supposedly is good at defense and in the clubhouse. BA 260, OBP 330.
     
    Then along comes Astudillo – chubby little guy that looks like a lifetime minor leaguer – and he becomes a Minnesota legend. Chubby, smiling, always hustling – kind of like a guy named Puckett. He hits, he does not strike out and he does not walk. The announcers question Molitor’s faith in him behind the plate. I cannot judge that. In 19 games his average is 327 and his OBP is 351.
     
    In the minors or best prospect is Rortvedt #24 for the Twins 262AB, 331 OBP. The projection for him is 2021.
     
    I cannot find any other prospects that get much of a conversation so I have to conclude that there is no one else ready for MLB. David Banuelos is in A ball and seems like the next on the list.
     
    Among FA catchers is Matt Wieters who has disappointed two teams so far and hopefully will not become a Twin. Yasmani Grandal, 30, is another FA. He has 95 hits and a 235 BA for the Dodgers. Jonathon LuCroy is now 33 and has bounced around a lot of teams in recent years. A good batter, but I am not sure he fits the Twins profile. And then there is the Braves – Kurt Suzuki, who had 77 hits and batted 271 for the braves this year – we have already had the Suzuki experience.
     
    So who is our catcher – and I know I am asking this with Garver suffering a concussion which could throw all these projections off.
    • Castro
    • Garver
    • Astudillo
    • Gimenez
    • Rordvedt
     
    Do we trade, do we go with what we have? Does Castro get his starting position back? Help me figure this out.
  10. mikelink45
    What a rotation
     
    I have gone through all but DH in my thought process on next year and I really do not care who is DH since it seems like the Twins like to move it around. But the rotation is the real issue. Bleacher reports had this reflection on Starting Pitching - https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1187854-is-starting-pitcher-the-most-important-position-for-building-a-successful-team . Very seldom do people attend the game because there will be a great match up of closers. We still look at Verlander, Kluber, Severino, Greinke as marquee names for any game. So who starts for the Twins in 2019 and 2020?
     
    I can easily write in Berrios. Is there anyone who compares?
     
    Gibson has turned the corner and we are still wondering if it is real, but yes, he is number two.
     
    Ervin Santana was a wonderful story, but the emphasis is on was! He is gone, I would almost guarantee it, but I guarantee nothing.
     
    Jake Odorizzi had a near no-hitter recently so we forget how mediocre he has been. 6 – 10 4.41 ERA 1,32 Whip, 30 games, 155 innings – an average of 5 innings per start. Yes, he will be in the rotation next year.
     
    Then there are the September debuts:
    Kohl Stewart – six games, 24 innings, ERA+ 81, 1.78 Whip, 5.47 ERA. Prospect #28.
     
    Aldalberto Mejia – 5 games, 2.01 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
     
    Aaron Slegers - 3 games, 5.68 ERA which is lower than his MLB career 6.11, 1.42 WHIP
     
    Michael Pineda who benefits from being injured all year and then injured again instead of making a Sep call up He is 40 – 41 with a 4.40 ERA, and a 1.19 WHIP. He will take one of the five spots, even if he has not earned it.
     
    Chase De Jong – the FO acquired him so he has a front of the line position and he gave up no runs in his first appearance. His MLB record has him with an ERA of 5.57 and a WHIP of 1.51. Smoke and mirrors so far for MN.
     
    Stephen Gonsalves who has dominated the minor league reports for the last four years has stunk in his debut – 9.39 ERA, within 1 of Belisle, and a 2.67 WHIP. Awful. Is it real? He is rated prospect #5.
     
    If not for Gonsalves and Belisle Littell would be on the stink listing with 8.44 ERA and 2.06 Whip. Zack was prospect number 20 which was a downgrade from his previous ranking at #11.
     
    If not them, who? Among the top 30 prospects – which include the above pitchers is Brusdar Gratol, our number 4 prospect. He is 20 and has proven himself at all the levels he has pitched at. MLB.com says he comes up in 2021.
    If the above pitchers continue there stink ratings he could be 2020.
     
    Blake Enlow is prospect number 9, he is 20, and projected for 2021. He could push 2020.
     
    Lewis Thorpe is prospect number 10 and why he did not get a September call up is a mystery to me. He could be in the mix for next year. He was 8 – 7 with an era of 3.54 and a WHIP of 1.24 in 2018.
     
    Jordan Balazovic is prospect number 30 and projected for 2021. We also have some pitchers that were acquired in trades this summer, but none seem MLB ready, yet.
     
    Then there are the FA. I will not project signing them, but Patrick Corbin of the AZ Diamondbacks hits the market at age 29. His stats look really good. He would be a good signing.
     
    Dallas Keuchel of the Astros is a dream, but one I think we should pass on. I am not as convinced as others that he has the ACE potential for the future.
     
    Clayton Kershaw – pardon me, I cannot type while I am laughing.
     
    With all this information and some experience with seeing how this FO works (or doesn’t) this is my guess.
    2019
    • Berrios
    • Gibson
    • Odorizzi
    • Pineda
    • Mejia
    • DeJong
     
    2020
    • Berrios
    • Gibson
    • DeJong
    • Thorpe
    • Gratol
    • Wells
  11. mikelink45

    Who plays in the OF?

    By mikelink45,

    I am back from guiding a hiking trip in Michigan where I got to watch the Detroit Tigers play a few games against the Cardinals - fun to see Gardenhire. As I watched their struggles to find the right Outfielders for the future I was interested in the various players that they put in and how each had different potentials and strengths. But it got me thinking about the Twins. For the last two years we have been led to think of the outfield as Rosario/Buxton/Kepler. But is it those three for the future?
     
    I know we have had LaMarre and Field out there during the year and they do not excite me. We have used Adrianza in the OF as well as Astudillo, and Taylor Motter. Logan Morrison was even in the OF for two games. And of course we have had Jake Cave and Robbie Grossman playing extensively in the OF.
     
    No minor leaguers were brought up this fall to get any MLB time in the OF but Wade seems like a candidate and eventually we will have more minor leaguers move up to challenge I hope. But what is the immediate future - the next two years? Who will be have out there when we turn the corner?
     
    Start with the Big Three
    Byron Buxton has had a lost year. He is 24 and has been with the team for parts of 4 years. His defense is out of this world, his slash line for the four years is 230/285/387 and we all know the drama that was 2018. 6.8 WAR
    Eddie Rosario seems to be the one who stepped up this year, leading the team in all the batting categories and playing a steady, if unspectacular OF. In his four years he has a slash line of 280/312/471. 8.6 WAR
    Max Kepler has not regressed, he has not progressed, he is not a star, is he a starter? His slash for the same four years is 235/314/421 and he has an accumulated WAR of 6.7.

    Before looking at other options - if I take the lazy route and just add and average these three players we would have an OF with a 248/303/408 slash and 1.8 WAR. Not good enough for a team that wants to be a champion.
     
    The two players on the team that look like our next OF candidates - Sorry Adrianza and Astudillo - are Grossman and Cave. Two players who elicit very different responses from TD fans.
    Robbie Grossman has been our number 4 OF for three years and has played in 331 games (DH and 1B included). His slash line for MN 262/365/397 which is actually a good line for a number 4 if we do not consider his OF range and defense.
    Jake Cave is our find of the year, after Motter and LaMarre and numerous other dumpster dives we were able to get Cave out of the Yankees and he has produced. 265/311/487 slash and 1.7 WAR for 76 games. He hustles and looks good but his fielding is not as good as some might claim. In the long run, when it comes to defense, Buxton has no worries.

    That is five players for starting and bench. Are they the right five and in the right order? The 40 man roster still has Zack Granite who had a lost year and Johnny Field.
    Granite earned 0.3 WAR in 93 ABs in 2017 and played better CF than all but Buxton. In 2018 he played in 68 games before ending his year with injury. He batted 211/282/245, He is 25 years old.
    Johnny Field has been in 13 games so far with a slash line of 071/100/171. If we look at his entire 2018 year he has 75 games and 193/231/330. I hope to not see him on the 40 next year.

    The next question is who is in the minors who might be up soon? MLB.com has a top 30 for each team - http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=min Our number two is Alex Kiriloff - how long before he comes up - will it be in the next two years? If he does Kepler better watch out because RF is his best position. Trever Larnach is in his first year, but already prospect #6. Too early to project him as a Twin. Akil Baddoo is #12 and so far has been a CF player. LaMonte Wade is #13 and seems the most ready for 2019.
    LaMonte Wade Age 24 has a minor league slash of 257/360/380 reminiscent of Grossman, but better in the field. He does not have power, but controls the plate.
    Alex Kiriloff is moving so fast he cannot be left out of the discussion for 2019 and definitely should be looked at for 2020. 348/392/578 is a slash line that cannot be ignored. Yes he is young, but you might notice that Atlanta and the Nationals both had players as young as him starting in their OFs this year.
    Akil Baddoo is 20, but could move fast and be a factor in 2020. 243/351/419.
    Trevor Larnach is 21, but is in his first year - 303/390/500 is an impressive start - 2020 is an outside possibility if the Twins are aggressive.
    Gilberto Celestino - just 19. He is our #14 prospect but should not be in this two year window.
    Gabriel Maciel is also just 19 and ranked #17. At least three years away.
    Luke Raley can play 1B or OF and is ranked #19. 275/350/471 He has the advantage of being someone the FO traded for - he is one of theirs and is considered a Grinder - Molitor will like that.
    Jacob Pearson is the last OF ranked in the top 30 Twins Prospects - He is age 20 with the Kernels this year and should be three years away.

    So that is the assortment we can work with in our system. Not counting more dumpster diving the following are Free Agent OFs for 2018.
    Bryce Harper - forget it
    Adam Jones - Not worth it
    Brett Gardner - he is already 35
    Nick Markakis - he too is 35
    Carlos Gonsalves - 33 coming from the light air of CO
    Michael Brantley - 32 - it would be nice to take him from Cleveland
    Steven Pearce - 36 - no thanks
    Lonnie Chisenhall - 30 - another Indian on the market
    Matt Joyce - 35. NO NO NO
    Curtis Granderson - 38, another old man, no thanks
    Carlos Gomez - 33, no we have already had him once
    Marwin Gonsalves - 30 - from Houston, interesting player.
    Cameron Maybin - 30 - nope
    Jon Jay - 34 - no interest
    Chris Young - 35, Angels, no
    Rajai Davis - 38 - another Cleveland OF - we could fill up with these guys, but no thanks
    Leonys Martin - 31, Guess which team - you Cleveland
    Gregor Blanco - 35 from SF. I say no to any over 32.
    Shane Robinson - 34 - Yankees
    Eric Young - 34 - Angels
    Brandon Barnes - 33- ANOTHER INDIAN!
    Jose Bautista - 38 - yes 38, no
    Austin Jackson 32 from the Mets
    Ben Revere - 31 - No retreads
    Some more with no resume, no interest on the list!

    Now comes the hard part - arrange them as you would like - this is the order I expect:
    2019
    Rosario
    Cave
    Kepler
    Buxton
    Grossman
    Raley

    2020
    Rosario
    Kiriloff
    Cave
    Buxton
    Raley
    Baddoo

    Where is Kepler, Wade...I expect trades. I would rather have Wade that Grossman in 2019, but I do not see the Twins making that move, I see him traded before being rostered. I am trying to guess at the Twins as much as looking at what I would like to see.
     
    Have at it.
  12. mikelink45

    Who will be on first

    By mikelink45,

    Okay, we know Joe is on first, but we do not know if Joe wants to stay there or go home and be a dad. Actually we do not know how Mrs Joe feels about this. Joe is the perfect compliment to our existing infield, not because he hits well, he and Robbie Grossman are the walk guys if you like that for your batters. But right now it is Joe's glove that is saving this rather mediocre group of fielders.
     
    First base is a nice place for Austin or Sano or Grossman, but we do not have the greatest fielders and they can use the security of a really good fielding first baseman. Ask the pitchers what they think.
     
    So Joe can play the I am not sure card and the FO can say we traded for Austin and Cave and have Sano and others ready for 1B and all can provide the tradition 1B power. Have fun with the negotiations - Joe is not coming back cheap.
     
    So who wins? Fielding and nostalgia or power and youth? I am not sure. This is the list of possible 1B for 2019 - how would you arrange them?
    Joe Mauer
    Tyler Austin
    Miguel Sano
    Robbie Grossman
    Jake Cave
    Brent Rooker

    Or do you sign a FA and set back all the young guys? The infield is not as strong as the outfield, the answers are much more complicated - defense versus batting.
  13. mikelink45
    Who's on second does not have the ring of who's on first, but it is a legitimate question. After my last two blogs puzzling over SS and 3B where we are below league average in fielding, we need some strength up the middle. I will not speculate on Dozier and his half year greatness routine because I do not see him coming back. I hesitate to speculate about Escobar which is a big fan favorite for every infield position, but he has now seen the bigger world and knows he can make some choices.
     
    So there is Logan Forsythe. He has had 2700 ABs and has a lifetime average of 249 and a total WAR of 12.9 so he is not a terrible choice. He will not have the HR power of Dozier, but he should not have the 1/2 year splits that Dozier did either. His defensive WAR accumulated over 8 seasons is 12.9 - not spectacular, more league average. In fact, if you look closer, he accumulated just under 1/2 of that WAR in one really good year - 2015. If SS and 3B were great we could tolerate league average, but with league average being the highest of the three positions I am not sure that we can look at this as a championship infield.
     
    Of course Polanco could slide to 2B or 3B and then we have to figure out SS, but I am not looking at signing or trading players in this essay. I want to see what is in the cupboard. Adrianza is our backup for all three positions. This year, according to Baseball Reference Adrianza has a -0.3 WAR for 2018. Good utility, but too much exposure is not good.
     
    Who is in the minors - Petit is our fall infield call up. Gregorio is 33 years old and has a 0.1 WAR over parts of six years. I do not nominate him for second base full time. For the Rochester Redwings we had Alex Perez play 14 games and bat 244 and Taylor Featherstone played 55 and batted 167. I do not believe either of them is going to make MLB this next year. As a matter of fact I do not remember reading about them in TD minor league stories.
     
    Travis Blankenhorn, who is listed as a prospect for reasons I do not know, is 2B in Fort Myers where he played 124 games and batted 231! And he was backed up by Alex Perez who hit 208. Not going here.
     
    If we go down to Cedar Rapids Michael Helman in 27 games hit 355, Jordan Gore in 63 games hit 305, and Jose Miranda in 104 games hit 277. I do not know their fielding prowess, but I suspect the answer for next year is not at this level.
     
    Those are the in-house answers.
     
    So I do have to look at FA options - Machado and Donaldson are the best infield options, but not at second. Elvis Andrus is a possibility for SS or 2B, Brian Dozier is the person we know best, but I do not think Brian liked how things went this year so do not expect him back. Daniel Murphy is not going to leave the Cubs! DJ LaMahieu is coming from the Rockies - do you trust their stats?
     
    My prediction - Logan Forsythe is the 2019 2B, but we better do something to increase the infield fielding! Maybe this will insure Mauer is back since we need a glove at 1B no matter how the person hits and Austin, Sano, Cave, or Rooker is not going to anchor the infield with their gloves.
  14. mikelink45

    SS - your best fielder

    By mikelink45,

    For years baseball played with shortstops that could cover a lot of ground and if they hit well it was a bonus - Marty Marion and Ozzie Smith made the hall like this. Mark Belanger was the glue of Earl Weaver's championship Orioles and Zoilo Versalles brought the Twins to their first World Series.
     
    Now we masquerade SS with all the shifts but still we look at Lindor and Correa and other great gloves with great arms as prototype shortstops. Notice how many professional athletes began as Shortstops - that includes Sano. Because the best athlete was the SS. On a site called Dick's Pro Tips the little league teams are given this advise - "Arguably, this should be one of your best defensive players. The shortstop should show great range and the ability to field sharply hit baseballs. Choose someone who has an above-average arm, as many of their throws will be a great distance."
     
    Some might argue catcher and they get a lot of points, but they do not have to move as fast and as many directions, catch hops, drives, popups, and bad hops. Nor do they turn DPs.
    Think about what happens when a shortstop blows a catch, misses on a DP, or drops a pop up. We can put big oafs that hit Homeruns at 1B and even 3B, but not at SS. We can put good gloves with limited range at 2B (hate to say that since I played 2B), but at SS we want quickness, range, and arm. It is a position that demands a lot and is involved in a lot.
     
    I bring that up because Polanco is really disappointing this year. I do not have a stat that tells me how much offense is needed to offset bad defense. He has now reached 50 Errors at SS, not counting other positions, in 3 years. Too many. His fielding percentage, his errors, and his defensive WAR are all near the bottom. If the Twins are going to move up in the standings, we have to move up in the quality of each position and Jorge is not cutting it right now. Do we have hope that will change?
  15. mikelink45
    A few days okay I wrote about Polanco and SS and I found him wanting as a defensive and future SS for a championship team, but what about 3B? Are we set with Sano? In this article https://calltothepen.com/2013/02/07/bold-prospect-comparisons-miguel-sano/ written five years ago Sano was the third best prospect in the majors, "Sano potential has a 70-grade power tool and 70-grade arm strength. Meaning he will be expected to hit 35 or more bombs a year and have one of the stronger arms in the league. His hit tool should be about major league average, maybe slightly below average. That is a .250-.270 hitter. His fielding is below average and so is his speed.He may swipe double digits in his early years but it isn’t considered a part of his overall game."
     
    Well that might be overly optimistic. However, along with Byron Buxton, he was the cornerstone for the future. This year Sano has a -0.4 WAR, he is batting 202, has a long stint in the minors to make corrections and is back as a fixture at 3B. And his comps, according to Baseball Reference are pretty bleak in my assessment:
    Michael Conforto (960.5)
    Randal Grichuk (959.3)
    Adam Duvall (959.2)
    Chris Duncan (957.3)
    Eric Thames (947.2)
    Domingo Santana (944.1)
    Bud Souchock (943.5)
    Travis Shaw (942.4)
    Dusty Rhodes (939.5)
    Chuck Essegian (939.4)
     
    In 182 MLB games he is batting 245, but this year he is batting 202. Last year he had 3.1 offensive WAR and this year he is 0.1 Offensive WAR and -0.5 Defensive WAR.
    We knew that he would not be Brooks Robinson or Pie Traynor or any great 3B, but his hitting would make up for it. It has not. In Fantasy sports - CBS https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/rankings/h2h/3B/ he is not in the top 40. I am sure that must be wrong. On ESPN he currently ranks 49th at 3B. https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/rankings/h2h/3B/
     
    I went to many of the rankings and he does not rank except in the mind of the Twins fans. So what's up. Is he the future star or a bust? Is the another Mark Reynolds, or Kingman? Or is he someone we can build around. Combine Buxton and Sano and we have lousy BA, good HRs, Excellent fielding (last two categories apply to only one).
     
    When I looked at Polanco I asked if a team that looks at a future championship can put Polanco as there every day SS. I have to ask the same for Sano. But who can replace him? I know some will expect to resign Escobar - I don't. But among prospects who is it? Blankenship? Move Polanco to 3B?
     
    I have this desire to have a World Series again and that means I want better than average at every position. Right now 3B is my second question mark.
  16. mikelink45

    Who's at First

    By mikelink45,

    Wow - no Abbott and Costello needed for this joke - just Falvey and Levine. The Twins are playing right now against the Rangers - okay, just 60 games left, open roster, we could bring up Vargas, Wade, Petit, Wiel and have a nice surprise players at first base. Or we could stay with Mauer or Austin, or give Sano or Grossman the 1B glove for a day.
     
    But not this advanced metrics group of geniuses - nope we outsmarted everyone. We swung a secret trade of Wilson for Gimenez to boost our future and not behind the plate - nope, we needed to get Gimenez bat in the line up and Astudillo was set for catcher, so Gimenez at 1B.
     
    Wow, I wonder how Chris stacks up among all 1B in the majors this year? How about last? Only the Twins were smart enough to redefine what a 1B player should look like and ignore the eight who might be considered for the position to come up with New Baseball. Forget Moneyball; we are into Washed Up Ball. Of course he is in position to take the mound after Belisle does his mound magic.
     
    Update - I was so upset I could not wait for Texas to score 18 runs, but now it is over and Belisle gave up a run without a hit, out, error, but one big HBP and then thrown out. This allowed him to secure his 8.01 ERA and then as I had anticipated our pitcher in waiting Gimenez came it - let's hear the collective Hooray! And one inning, six hits, and five runs later the game was over.
    Falvey, Levine - congratulations on maneuvering our roster so we could accomplish this great feat!
  17. mikelink45
    I know that RP refers to relief pitching – for me it amounts to Really Poor baseball. KC won a series and did damage to the rest of baseball just like the jerk with the bomb that makes me take off my shoes at the airport. We have always had some relief pitchers, but now we have a stat head jamboree of pitchers. No longer is half the team pitchers and half batters, now we have 2 -3 on the bench and a bullpen that has to add folding chairs. Does this help the game? No.
     
    Do any of you enjoy the visits to the mound, the time it takes to run in, the 8 pitches from an already warmed up pitcher who might throw one pitch to one batter and then we repeat this exciting or should I say dramatic spectacle again.
     
    We are now in an era when wins do not count any more, starting pitchers are actually one inning relievers – how exciting is that. The starting pitcher is saved from facing the strongest part of the lineup! Why is he starting? Openers are used for beer and other necessary boredom relieving beverages.
     
    Pitchers per game is now 4.24 per team, in our World Series Years of 1991 (3.13), 1987 (2.89) and 1965 (2.69). Wins counted then because pitchers were in the game long enough to actually dominate the game – I love the Marichal and Spahn complete game 16 inning affair won by the giants (even though Spahn was my pitching hero and the Braves (Milwaukee – not Atlanta) were my favorite team). By the way Spahn started 665 games and completed 382.
     
    How about Robin Roberts throwing 28 straight complete games for the Phillies? Or Nolan Ryan throws 235 pitches, strikes out 19, during an 13 inning effort. Right now Berrios is tied for the lead in complete games with 2. Going back to our Series years – McDowell (WS) – 15 in 1991, Roger Clemens (Bos) 18 in 1987, and Sandy Koufax (Dodgers) 27 in 1965.
     
    It should be noted that neither Spahn nor Ryan had their arms fall off after those feats.
     
    A Koufax/Marichal game was must see. Great pitchers were the draw. Who goes to the park to watch the pitching match up now? Oh boy I wonder who the Opener is today? Yuck, I had to pause to let my stomach settle and to take another shot of whiskey. Oh wait I might miss Astudillo throwing melons to the plate.
     
    I do not even know these players – Boxberger from AZ is in 85% of fantasy leagues – who is he? Who is Matthew Strahm? Do I care? Fantasy Pros lists 301 relief pitchers. Who will pay to see them pitch? Yawn. I leave after 7 – I don’t care anymore – Jim Kaat was right, but the thing is I am moving that to 6 innings and if there is an Opener I come in the second inning.
     
    Give me back baseball. In fact give me starters who throw complete games, batters that bunt when the shift is on, players who steal bases and do hit and run. Limit the team to three pitchers per game. And please some team challenge this nonsense and open up the game with action, not just strikeouts and home runs.
  18. mikelink45

    Grading the year

    By mikelink45,

    Just read Bleacher reports grading for all the teams at this point in the year. Obviously after the trading period. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2789031-mlb-report-card-grades-for-all-30-teams-entering-august?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=mlb#slide4
     
    "Minnesota Twins (49-57)
    If we pretended 2017 never happened, this season might feel like a moral victory for the Minnesota Twins.
    In 2016, Minnesota lost 103 games. In light of that, a sub-.500 second-place standing wouldn't sting too badly. The Twins vaulted past expectations in 2017, however, and grabbed the AL's second wild-card spot.
    As such, it's tough to view their injury-marred, regression-filled 2018 showing as anything less than a crash-to-Earth splash of ice-cold water.
    Grade: D"
     
    I tried to think about this as I do with my graduate courses - although those students are much easier to grade. So how do I think about a grade for the team - which is the entire team - players, Front Office, Management. Of course a world series position would make it easy to give them an A. But they need not have gone that far - they could have matched or just increased on last years performance and we would have had at least an A-.
     
    But they didn't. So what is next? In the B range we could have forgiven them for some set backs that they could not have anticipated - injuries, suspensions and if they came close to last year, if they had gotten to 500 it could be a B. If they had filled holes, had the players showing advances and given us a sense that things were in place if the missing returned I could have gone B. But they did not. It is hard to see that we are not suffering more than other teams, but the fact is other teams, good teams overcome the loss of Yu Darvish, Justin Turner, Aaron Judge...and they keep playing and keep winning.
     
    If the Front Office gave us a really good player out of Odorizzi, Lynn, Morrison, Rodney, Reed, Duke, Motter, LaMarre who looked like a piece to give us a shot at a run next year we could say that would be a C despite the record. But they did not. Maybe Cave will rise to be a super star. Or if all the players hit their marks from last year - Kepler, Buxton, Sano, Dozier we could feel pretty good, but Polanco and Rosario and Escobar and Berrios were the shining stars and the others fell far short. If we had a third catcher with some talent and promise for when Castro went down I would feel better, or if the manager did not fall in love with a hitless 35 year old back up catcher and play him more than the young guy who can hit and has promise I would like it. Or if we were not bringing out a 38 year old relief pitcher who averages a run an inning pitcher it would give me more confidence. In fact, if I were not seeing the fact that he does not let inherited runners score (very much) it would be fine, but the fact that he likes to let his own batters score does not help the team win. If the manager did not fall in love with the hot bullpen pitcher the way the NHL falls in love with the hot goal tender I would like it too. A pitcher cannot throw every night - alternate their appearances Paul. So put all this together and I am afraid there is no C here.
     
    I am afraid that I agree with Bleacher Report. This is a D. A "D" means that we all made it through the motions. We put a team on the field every day. Occasionally a good play or a good hit or a well pitched game will give us great joy, but too often we drift away before the game is over, we start to read about the other sports, maybe check out for a few days. In fact the D is a reflection of the fact that the trade deadline was one of the most enjoyable aspects of the summer game and now that it is over I guess I need to shift to the September call ups, although I would enjoy them more if we DFA'd deadwood and starting calling them up now.
     
    Okay, what would be an F? If in this Central Division we did not finish second in the standings. That would be an F.
  19. mikelink45

    It's August

    By mikelink45,

    Okay it is August and the Twins have kept us around and speculating since Spring Training. Who will be cut, what FA will be brought in, will the minor leaguers get a chance, will Dozier's 1/2 year of brilliance begin soon? Are we buyers or sellers, who will be our all-star, will anyone take our deadwood at Trade Deadline. Now what?
     
    The Twins are 9 games back in the Central and perhaps even more telling they are 13.5 back in the wild card. At 49 - 57 the Twins now have 56 games left. Being just an 8 fame winning streak from 500 what are the chances of strong finish? Yawn - does it matter.
    The new acquisitions are ready to contribute to the big club in about 5 years, the best players in the minors in 2 years.
     
    The Twins still have Belisle taking innings. Why? They still have slugger Morrison and his 193 BA taking regular ABs - Why? I believe DFA was created for these two.
     
    Any reason that Romero and Gonsalves are not in the rotation for the rest of this waste year? Is there some logic that it is better to go with Belisle, Rodney, and Reed than some of our minor league arms? Is there any reason Rooker should not get a preview rather than Morrison?
     
    Is there no one in the minors who could benefit from removing Wilson at Catcher? Other than seeing new talent and getting a preview of better times what does the rest of the season mean? I know the Vikings are about to start playing exhibitions that are even more pathetic than our chances to catch Cleveland, but at least there are individual goals for the players on the Twins. Or we can watch Thibodeau in daily debates with his best player as we wait the highly anticipated (cough-cough) Timberwolves, or switch over to the 8th place United.
     
    Maybe a trip to the lake, a walk in the woods (my choices) are the best choices. Meditation about what it means to be a Twins fan. Our all-time record puts us 101 games below 500 - maybe that is our destiny. The state parks await. Or the state fair with everything on a stick can take away our baseball blues. A concert or two, or a trip to the minor leagues to see what the young Twins look like (and please do not repeat that we have built up our minors so we can use them for trades). Look for hope before the leaves turn, the wind shifts and the flakes fall.
     
    We know that there are a lot of fans with the same doldrums. Most of them entered the season without hope and that is the hardest part. Baseball is such a tease.
     
    And, of course, there are the teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, Yankees that should be put in one division so that they can beat each other up and give the rest of us a real chance.
     
    Enjoy the sunshine, harvest your garden, check Twins Daily for new stories and let the radio put the Twins in the background while you sit on the deck and remember what a gorgeous place we live in.
  20. mikelink45
    https://www.apnews.com/084ccc602de94182817778ef905228dc/MLB-strikeouts-top-hits-for-2nd-time-in-3-months
     
     
    "Strikeouts exceeded hits in the major leagues for the second time in three months, a deviation that had never occurred before this year.
     
    There were 6,776 strikeouts and 6,640 hits in June, the Elias Sports Bureau said Sunday. That leaves the season totals at 21,090 strikeouts and 20,671 hits about halfway through the season."
     
    What ails MLB? Here is a pretty good symptom. Major league teams are averaging 711 K to 273 BB at this point in the season. That is a team average not a league average. Our Minnesota Twins are 668 - 279. We are a little better than average (of course we have been without Buxton and Sano!
    The MLB average batting pct is 246 - which includes pitchers in the NL, and the Twins are 238.
     
    In 1927, a season known for a guy named Ruth and his 60 home runs, there was another forgotten record. The Philadelphia Athletics struck out only 327 times - that is the entire team - for the season! The Cincinnati Reds set the record for the fewest team strikeouts - 308 - in 1921. The Astros in 2013 struck out 1535 times. http://www.baseball-almanac.com/recbooks/rb_strike2.shtml Milwaukee Brewers batters struck out 1,571 times during the 2017 season, surpassing the previous mark of 1,543 by the Brewers in 2016. http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/most-strikeouts-in-a-season-team
     
    The Minnesota Twins record for fewest strikeouts in a season is 684 in 1978! We are within 16 of surpassing that record. Our most is 1121 in 1997. We are way more than half way to that record.
     
    When Nolan Ryan struck out 383 batters in 1973 the American League there 3.37 Ks per game, and in 2018 it is 8.53. "In 1973, when Ryan struck out 383 batters, only 10 American Leaguers struck out 100 times that season, none of them more than Bobby Darwin's 137. Last year in the AL, 73 hitters struck out 100 times, 24 of them more than Darwin's total." https://www.mlb.com/news/two-unbreakable-records-of-nolan-ryan/c-265897848
     
    The rise of 5 strikeouts per game average is not because the pitchers are better, it is the new game, and it makes Ks meaningless and boring.
     
    Thanks to a question by Sconnie I am adding this additional information. I think it is enlightening and important:
     
    Happily.The stat heads - call it money ball if you want - came in and said that a K is ok.They said it was just another out and did not cause a DP, but they did not say it would not move a runner or cause an error or get a base hit..They discounted the K as a negative and the K rate has soared.Thus a pitcher is more likely to get a K than at any time in the past when batters protected the zone or choked up on their bat.
     
    The old time slugger was embarrassed to strike out 100 times a season. Sano has 536 strike outs in 1288 at bats.Certainly a pitcher can be embarrassed when Sano connects, but if I think about 40 HRs, 40 solo HRs I have to ask if that really offsets all those strikeouts.We have 162 games, that means a HR every 4 games if he hits 40.What else happens?
     
    This led to more high strikeout pitching rates, butnothing to compare with Ryan, Koufax, Johnson, Feller, etc who had high rates of strikeouts when batters really worked to make contact.So I do not know how to rank Kershaw, Sale, etc.I can say they are better than their contemporaries, but not better than the historical pitchers.
     
    Where is the shame in striking out?Babe Ruth once said, "“Never let the fear of striking out get in your way.” Check out this article - Babe Ruth would be considered a contact hitter now -https://howtheyplay.com/team-sports/strikeouts-have-skyrocketed-since-Babe-Ruth "In 2012, Adam Dunn struck out 222 times. Babe Ruth struck out 234 times in a four-year period. Some have justified Dunn’s total with the fact that he hit 41 homers and walked 105 times. In Ruth’s four years when he had a combined total of just 12 more than Dunn had, he hit 182 home runs and walked 466 times (he also had 713 hits for a .355 batting average, compared to Dunn’s .204.)
     
    Five players this year had more than 176 strikeouts, which was Ruth’s worst two-year total (1927-28 when he hit 114 home runs.) Several weeks ago, Sports Illustrated raved that Buster Posey is a player who rarely strikes out. Don Mattingly praised Posey as someone who doesn’t have a high strike out rate. So how many times did Posey fan in 2012? 96 times, three more than the highest total of Ruth, the strikeout king."
     
    Look at this list of more home runs that strikeouts - https://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10091.html.
    I will give you one more reference - from the Denver Post - https://www.denverpost.com/2018/04/29/mlb-strikeout-era/
     
    And finally, here is an article that normalizes strikeout rates for the top 200 pitchers. htp://twww.highheats...rs-of-all-time/
     
    I hope this gives you a lot to think about as we recognize that high heat meeting wild swings guarantees lots of Ks, but not good baseball.
  21. mikelink45
    I know it is popular to say Molitor is a poor manager. Today there is even a comparison with Lovullo. But maybe the problem rises to higher levels. Yes Lovullo lost his Ace and still succeeds. The Twins pitching lost its Ace and continued too. I here that the Twins are not running the bases like others. The problem is, you have to get on base. We have a collective 234 batting average and a 307 OBP. The old cliche is - you can't steal first. This team is not built for much of anything.
     
    So what has the Front Office done for Molitor - they brought in LaMarre, Cave, Morrison, and Motter. We lost our catcher and they brought in Bobby Wilson. Tell me how Mauer compares to Goldschmidt? Who are the leaders for the team.
     
    On the pitching side the analytical geniuses bring in Lynn and Odorizzi - its been a roller coaster, but I am not upset by those moves. On the other hand our aging bullpen additions do nothing for me. We have a 41 year old Rodney and 38 year old Belisle. Then we tell Molitor not to over use the one or two arms that are actually delivering. Reed and Duke - two more old vets are okay, but Reed failed as the eighth inning arm.
     
    The FO brought in more coaches, consultants, good old twins guys than I can count or remember, but we watched our two premier players for the future - Sano and Buxton fail and flounder. How many consultants can we assign to them. Fernando Romero looks like the real thing, but as he reached that point where some adjustments are needed we send him down - sorry calling all our consultants.
     
    We have had Adrianza and Petit at SS when we have Gordon in the minors. Gordon might be needing some more development, but can't he match these two or perhaps spell a struggling Dozier.
     
    Of course Molitor does not want a 224 lead-off hitter like Grossman, but we started with Dozier who is batting 218 and Mauer who is batting 254 and looks lost since his occurrence of concussion symptoms. So who else can bat first? We need the two Eddies to be in the top of the lineup, but do you move them to one and two and put powerless Mauer at number 3 with 191 batting Morrison and 218 batting Dozier in position to drive them in?
     
    Who does Molitor bring in from the pen - Hildenberger is doing great, Magill does not seem to have anyones confidence, Reed lost his position, Duke scares us, Rogers and Pressly have eras over 4 - terrible for a reliever. So FO guys, where is the help? How do you give your manager a roster he can actually work with?
  22. mikelink45
    Where are they now is not about old and retired, but the players on current rosters who at one time were on the Twins Roster. Just curious how they are succeeding and if we wish we had any of them back. Here are the hitters with their stats after the Solstice:
     
    I chose BA, OPS, and WAR for the comparative stats:
     
    Aaron Hicks, Yankees, 251 BA, 811OPS, 1.7 WAR
    Danny Valencia, Orioles 290, 822, 1.2
    Wilson Ramos, Tampa Bay, 296, 796, 1.5
    Carlos Gomez, Tampa Bay, 197, 609, -0.5
    John Hicks, Detroit, 279, 759, 0.4
    Niko Goodrum, Detroit, 244, 786, 1.1
    Denard Span, Mariners, 292, 784, 0.3
    Kendrys Morales, Blue Jays, 245, 714, -0.2
    Danny Santana, Braves, 667, 1.750, 0.1 (yes sss)
    Kurt Suzuki, Braves, 279, 821, 1.4
    Pedro Florimon, Phillies, 263, 814, 0.5
    Chris Giminez, Cubs, 130, 353, -0.1
    John Ryan Murphy, Diamondbacks, 239, 769, 0.7
     
    Do you want any of them back? Collective WAR - 8.1
     
    Teams that chose to have an ex-Twin pitching did not do as well. I have made my list simple, W - L, ERA.
     
    Jaimie Garcia, Blue Jays, 2 – 6, 8.16 ERA
    Blaine Boyer, Royals 2 – 9, 11.76
    Liam Hendricks, A’s 0 – 0, 4.50
    Bartolo Colon, Texas, 4 – 4, 4.91
    Annibel Sanchez, Reds, 3 – 3 2.55
    Brian Kintzler, Nationals, 1 -2, 13 holds, 4.45
    Randy Rosario, Cubs, 3 – 0, 1.76
    Brian Duensing, Cubs, 1 – 3, 4.50
    Anthony Swarkzak, Mets, 0 – 1, 3.48
    Phil Hughes, Padres, 0 – 0, 6.23
     
    The only surprise is how well Rosario is doing. The Twins gave him a too young, too short try, and then DFA's him. The Cubs saw something they liked. Would you trade Belisle to get him?
     
    Who would you have back? And if you can trade one for one, who would he replace?
  23. mikelink45
    I like Baseball Reference’s similarity scores so I thought we should look at our lineup and see it in an alternative universe – with the most similar players according to the reference (with Sano still in the lineup):
     
     
    Brian Dozier - Earl Williams
    Eddie Rosario - Yasmany Tomas
    Eddie Escobar - Jose Castillo
    Miguel Sano - Michael Conforto
    Max Kepler - Elijah Dukes
    Logan Morrison - Garrett Jones
    Robbie Grossman - Bud Metheny
    Juan Castro - John McDonald
    Jorge Polanco - Tim Anderson
     
     
    Since Mitch Garver and Ehire Adrianza have no similarity listed. I went to Juan Castro and Jorge Polanco.
    Mauer has a similarity score that matches Dustin Pedroia. Byron Buxton has his similarity score match Byron Browne.
     
    Look at the similarities and substitute them in your lineup. Would that lineup be one you want to go to the season with? Put in Byron Browne and Dustin Pedroia for Mauer and Buxton and you still have a lineup that has no punch. Most of the equivalents are not names any of us know. Going down the similarity scores you will eventually find current or known entities, but I just wanted to move from our home team bias and see where our players rank within baseball history.
     
    We have a ways to go. I think Rosario and Escobar will bring up even better names if they continue like this, but really, somethings need to be done.
     
     
    On the pitching side:
    Jose Berrios - David Nied
    Fernando Romero - None
    Jake Odorizzi - Danny Salazar
    Lance Lynn - Mat Latos
    Kyle Gibson - Steve Parris
    Addison Reed - Chris Perez
    Fernando Rodney - Jason Isringhausen
     
    We do much better, as expected with pitching. Berrios will move up as he continues his development and so will Romero, but I still hope for more from Gonsalves.
     
    So this is your Minnesota Twins team by equivalency. How do they look when their masks are off?
  24. mikelink45
    After two weeks of guiding hiking and birding trips my mind automatically finds feathered beauty and details so, of course, as I move back to the details of baseball my bird attention shifts with it. I see Blue Jays, Orioles, and Cardinals so the transition is easy.
     
    Baseball is filled with bird incidents like the pigeon that landed on the field and then wandered over to Greg Bird on first base. There was the Kestrel that entertained Twins fans during a cold and rainy night when it was on the jumbotron catching insects (2010). The Toronto Star reported on an incident with former Twin and Twin City hero – Dave Winfield, “On August 4, 1983, more than 36,000 watched the Toronto Blue Jays play the New York Yankees at Exhibition Stadium. When Yankee star Dave Winfield threw a baseball at the end of the fifth inning warm-up, it came into disastrous convergence with a bird that had been watching in right-centrefield. The bird slumped lifelessly on the Astroturf.
     
    “A police officer sitting on the edge of right field thought it was an intentional hit. Winfield said it was an accident. He was taken to 14 Division and charged with causing “unnecessary suffering to an animal.” The charge was later dropped, but the moment never really went away.”
     
    The Minneapolis Tribune wrote an article about Gene Glynn, our Minnesota Coach, who watches birds at his home in Waseca. “I find birds in every city in every park near the baseball stadium,” Glynn says. “In Florida the shorebirds are all over the place, on the West Coast it’s all about gulls, terns and herons and in Central Park in New York you can see just about anything. Birds get me outdoors and keep me occupied.”
     
    Besides the team baseball has Robins. Like Robin Ventura from the White Sox and Robin Yount from the Brewers and Robin Roberts from the Phillies – a pretty good threesome! Aaron Crow brings another of our common birds to the diamond and Dean and Don Crow had the proverbial cup of coffee. Mike Parrott played from 1977 – 1981.
    Hawk Harrelson represents our raptors. Andre Dawson was known as the Hawk too. Turkey Gross in 1925 and Turkey Tyson in 1944 represent the bird that Ben Franklin wanted to replace the eagle as our national symbol. The Eagle was represented by Bill Eagle in 1898 and the Grey Eagle – Tris Speaker, hall of famer.
     
    The German word for birds – Vogel – can be found in Otto Vogel from the early 1920’s and Ryan Vogelsong added the lyrics of our avian world too.
     
    The Bird is well represented from the diminutive Birdie (actually he was not) Tebbetts, catcher, to Doug Bird, the pitcher who lasted 11 years in the majors. There was also George Bird in 1871, Frank Bird in 1872, and Greg Bird – current. But of course THE BIRD was Mark Fidrych who took the baseball world over during his too brief career.
    THE BIRD would go 19 – 9 in his rookie yearwith a 2.34 era in 250 innings and the Tigers were 74 – 88 even with him. His 9.6 WAR and his 1.079 WHIP would satisfy any stathead, but his story goes downhill fast. He lasted five innings and won only 10 more games total and he would only live to be 54. There are numerous bios on Youtube but this one really captures the excitement of his year:
    and in books The Bird, by Doug Wilson, but seeing him in a Tigers Uniform that magic summer of his rookie year is something no one could forget. On the ground shaping the mound with his hands, and with his general demeanor Mark connected with the fans. 
    Willie Horton, his teammate said at his funeral, “Everyone playing in the major leagues today owes a debt of gratitude to Mark Fidrych. He brought baseball back to the people. He made it popular again. He helped save the game.”
     
    Bird came in as the game was at a 1976 low point – owners had a lock out, free agency was just beginning and fans were disgusted. But Bird had such enthusiasm and charisma. People loved it when he talked to the ball, when he ran off the mound to congratulate teammates or when he shook hands with the umpire after the game.
    He played for the $16,000 minimum wage and still loved everything about the experience. The unwritten rule (yup, one of those) in those days was not to take curtain calls. The Bird changed that. Described as “gawky, noisy and energetic with a huge mop of curly yellow hair…” he did not look like a typical ball player. In fact, he looked like Big Bird from Sesame Street and that gave him his nickname – a perfect fit.
     
    His career ended because of a severely torn rotator cuff, maybe from his 24 complete games, but that was before the TJ surgery and the advances that now save pitchers careers. He was what baseball needs right now, a personality. Burn all the unwritten rules, we need authentic heroes on the diamond, we need real people we can relate to. THE BIRD was a savior and we need more of them. We may have a big fish – Mike Trout – right now, but it is the Bird, Reggie Jackson and others who jump out of the game and into the hearts of the fans that really make baseball.
  25. mikelink45

    Not Belisle

    By mikelink45,

    I am flabbergasted. I wants something to happen. I wanted a change, but Matt Belisle? For gods sake Cleveland sent him to the minors and the AAA team released him. This is our big move? This is how we fix the BP? Look at this quote from Twinkie Town - "Certainly the presence of Belisle is to lessen the workloads on fellow righthanders Addison Reed, Trevor Hildenberger, and Ryan Pressley. However, it’s a little quizzical that the front office was so quick to bring him in when Alan Busenitz (31% strikeout rate, 0.38 ERA, 1.76 FIP) and John Curtiss (33.7% strikeout rate, 1.61 ERA, 2.63 FIP) are dominating Triple-A. This is likely a case of Falvey/Levine wanting Belisle’s veteran presence (veteran presents?) while Busenitz and Curtiss are still rather green."
     
    Is this Ground Hog Day? Is this what all those great stats whizzes came up with? Once upon a time we had a Twins FO that brought back anyone who wore a Twins Uniform, even if it was a costume part. I thought those days were over.
     
    I think the answer to our current bullpen questions was in the minors, but of course the FO did not sign them, like they did not sign Wade and they have already proved that they want their fingerprints on every move.
     
    Falvey if you want to bring a new culture to the Twins this is not the way to do it. https://www.twinkietown.com/2018/6/12/17453818/minnesota-twins-sign-matt-belisle-dfa-gregorio-petit-cleveland-indians-bullpen-relief-alan-busenitz
     
    Would I rather have Petit - yes. Belisle's 5.06 ERA in 8 games is not a stat I take pleasure in. I gave our FO a C- in an early posting. Today I make that a D.
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