Kavan

Bluechipper, my guess was almost exactly what yours was before I looked at the comments. I'm thinking 260/310/410 seems about right. He managed a .260 BA with a .301 BABIP last year, I wouldn't be surprised if BABIP jumps a little.

Having 'too many' SP options is indeed a good problem. The solution to which is maximizing the aggregate value you can extract from your options. I think the point is that May is perhaps the best starting pitcher on the 25 man roster. You could take any of the starting 5 and turn them into a quality RP. Swapping one of Nolasco or Milone for May means more innings for the better pitcher, meanwhile Nolasco or Milone could tack on another 2 or so MPH and be an effective RP.

I'll take the under, someone has to lose games this year right? O's seem as likely as any other team to shoulder that burden.

I'm not sure I agree with the notion that Eduardo Escobar has transformed from a free swinger to a more patient hitter. The percent of pitches he swings at has not changed from his career averages, in fact in 2014 he swung at more pitches than at any time in his career. He's not swinging and missing at different rates (that actually peaked in 2014 as well). It looks like he just developed some power and started pulling the ball more often. Pulling the ball might have been a change in approach, but the additional power could just be him approaching his mid/late 20s when power tends to develop.

He's striking out fewer than 4 per 9 innings and his ground ball rate is a pedestrian 44%. He's had great results but I'm not optimistic about the sustainability.

This is a guy with 436 MLB games and a career .229/.311/.310..... I just don't see it. I predict: .235/.315/.325

The average ISO for these projections is .233. That would put Arcia in a category with Paul Goldschmidt, Nelson Cruz, and Ryan Braun in terms of power over the past few years. That seems a little optimistic to me. Maybe Arcia will be putting up those numbers at the peak of his career, but I don't see him doing that at age 23/24. I think my projection would be something like: .245/.310/.455