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Cody Christie

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Blog Entries posted by Cody Christie

  1. Cody Christie
    Earlier this week, the Dominican Republic took home their first championship in the World Baseball Classic. Japan won the title in the first two years of the tournament but this year it was all about the Dominicans. They went undefeated through all of the rounds and ended up celebrating on the field in San Francisco.
     
    One of the breakout stars for the Dominican was a current member of the Twins organization. Sam Deduno made three starts for his country and his numbers look great. He had a 2-0 record with a 0.69 ERA and 17 strikeouts over 13 innings. He pitched five shutout innings in the championship game to help lead his team to the top.
     
    Deduno started 15 games for the Twins at the end of last year and there were some ups and downs along the way. Does his breakout performance in the WBC give him a better chance to make the team's starting rotation? Is this a new and improved Deduno?
     
    His overall numbers from the WBC look great on paper but there were plenty of rough points for the Dominican right-hander. He had five walks in the tournament and a 1.23 WHIP. There were plenty of times where he would fall behind batters 3-0 before finding some way to wriggle out of the jam.
     
    The first inning of his match-up with the United States was a perfect example. With one out in the inning, Brandon Phillips would single to start the action. Ryan Braun would strikeout to be the second out of the frame. Joe Mauer singled to add to the threat. Now there were runners at first and second with two outs.
     
    After Deduno fell behind 2-0, Giancarlo Stanton would single to load the bases. Five pitches later, Eric Hosmer had drawn a walk and the first run of the game was scored by the US. The bases were still loaded. The next batter was Adam Jones and he quickly found himself ahead in the count 3-0. Deduno found a way out of the sticky situation as he struck out Jones on the next three pitches.
     
    This is the Deduno that Twins fans saw a lot of in 2012. There were flashes of brilliance but there were also plenty of head shaking. Deduno pitched six innings or more in half of his starts. His ERA got as low as 2.48 and it stayed under 4.00 until his last two starts. When he kept the ball in the park, he had found success even while averaging over 3.5 walks per outing.
     
    Unfortunately, there were multiple bad performances mixed in with the good. In nine of his 15 starts, he gave up a home run. He also had two multi-home run games and two games where he gave up seven earned runs. With how many hits and walks he gave up, it didn't make sense for him to find as much success as he did in his early appearances.
     
    Minnesota is going to have a couple of spots at the back end of their rotation to start the season. Scott Diamond will begin the year on the disabled list and that frees up a spot for someone like Deduno. One of the biggest obstacles for him might be the fact that he isn't on the team's 40-man roster. Pitchers like Liam Hendriks and Cole DeVries might have the upper hand to win a rotation spot.
     
    There are plenty of injury concerns with the core of pitchers the Twins have compiled for the coming year. This means that Deduno will most likely get another shot at the big leagues with the Twins. This could be a good thing or a bad thing so only time will tell if he can build off of his WBC performance.
     
    The Deduno that showed up in the WBC might have seemed like he was new and improved but it was more of the same player if a person looks beyond the numbers. In small doses, he can look dominant. There is also the Deduno that gets into trouble with walks and shaky control.
     
    The Twins would love a new and improved Deduno but don't count on him being the savior of the starting rotation. No matter what he looked like in the World Baseball Classic...
  2. Cody Christie
    One of the biggest bonuses of having back-to-back horrible seasons is the fact the Twins will get some high draft picks to restock their farm system. With the second pick in last year's draft, the organization selected Byron Buxton, a toolsy high school outfielder from Georgia. He was widely considered the best player available and the Twins were happy to get him.
     
    It is less than three months away from the 2013 MLB Draft and there are plenty of players for the Twins to discuss. The team has the fourth pick in the first round and there could be a variety of players to choose from at that point. It is considered a weak draft so the Twins will have to be careful with their picks.
     
    Here is a look at some of the top names that could be available when the Twins are on the clock with the fourth pick.
     
    The Early Draft Board Leader: Mark Appel, Stanford
    Pos: RHP, HT: 6-5, WT: 215
    For the second year in a row, Appel will be talked about as the top available player in the draft. The Pirates selected him with the eighth pick in 2012 but he didn't sign. He is back at Stanford for his senior year and he has done nothing to decrease his draft stock. His slider has improved and he should be one of the first few names called on draft day. His agent is Scott Boras and that could scare away teams for the second year in a row.
     
    The College Lefty: Sean Manaea, Indiana State
    Pos: LHP, HT: 6-5, WT: 235
    His time in the Cape Cod League last summer helped his draft stock. He can showcase a nasty slider and his speed can reach into the upper 90s. He tossed a jewel of a game on Friday night at the Metrodome against the Gophers. Over nine innings, he allowed one unearned run on six hits and nine strikeouts.
     
    The College Righty: Ryne Stanek, Arkansas
    Pos: RHP, HT: 6-4, WT: 190
    His fastball sits in the high 90's and this helps him to rack up some strikeout numbers. He uses his slider a lot and that could be a concern for teams looking to draft him. His 6-foot-4 frame could still add some weight and that might make him more intriguing. If his change up improves, he could become more dominant.
     
    The High School Outfielder: Austin Meadows, High School
    Pos: OF, B/T: L/L, HT: 6-3, WT: 200
    The Twins love toolsy high school outfielders. Last year they took, Buxton from Georgia and the team might look to Georgia again. Meadows could be the best available high school player and he has the potential to be a five-tool player. There are questions about his ability to hit on a consistent basis but that is the case with younger players that have multiple tools.
     
    The College Position Player: Kris Bryant, San Diego
    Pos: 3B/OF, B/T: R/R, HT: 6-5, WT: 215
    His powerful swing has drawn some attention so far this spring. He has 12 home runs in his team's first 20 games and he has another six doubles. His slugging percentage of .986 is off the charts and he will need to continue to hit for the Twins to take him fourth. There are questions about his defense at third and that could make teams shy away from him.
     
    High School Local Connection: Ryan Boldt, Red Wing (Minn.) HS
    Pos: OF, B/T: L/R, HT: 6-1, WT: 190
    The frigid Minnesota winter means that his spring season won't start until the beginning of next month. His tools are very solid but he doesn't have anything that would make the Twins reach for him at this point. He will likely be taken in the first round but a lot will depend on how he looks in his senior year.
     
    College Local Connection: Tom Windle, Minnesota
    Pos: LHP, HT: 6-4, WT: 215
    The star pitcher for the Gophers already has a no-hitter under his belt this spring. He went pitch for pitch with Manaea on Friday at the Metrodome but he came out on the losing end. His stuff is mostly average but he knows how to be effective on the mound. He would need to fall to the Twins second round pick for the club to have a chance to snag him.
  3. Cody Christie
    The addition of free agent Ryan Doumit during last offseason raised an interesting question for the Twins. Should the club carry a third catcher? Joe Mauer was coming off an injury-plagued year and it seemed like the club might need a little insurance with the big league squad.
     
    If Mauer and Doumit were in the line-up on the same day, the team could run into some problems without an extra catcher. There is a chance the team could lose the designated hitter spot or the club could be in a bind with an inexperienced player behind the dish.
     
    This brings the story back to Drew Butera. In the last three seasons, Twins fans have watched Butera put together one of the worst statistical lines for any player getting regular playing time at the big league level. He has hit .183/.232/.265 over 487 at-bats and 184 games.
     
    Last year, the Twins tried to start the year without a third catcher on the bench. Sean Burroughs impressed the front office during spring training and he earned a roster spot for the beginning of the year. Joe Mauer took a foul ball of his knee three weeks into the season and that meant the return of Butera and the end of Burroughs.
     
    Butera was arbitration eligible for the first time this year and the Twins had to fork over a new deal worth $700,000. There was a chance for him to be non-tendered but the club is in love with his defense. This means that he will be making more money this year than last year's runner-up for the MVP Mike Trout.
     
    Mauer has made it clear that he wants to spend more time behind the plate in 2013. The Twins will also use Doumit behind the plate even if his ability to frame pitches isn't the greatest. That leaves Butera to absorb any other playing time that is left over.
     
    There is always a chance that Butera won't make the roster for the start of the year. The club did this last year before they got a scare from Mauer getting banged up. Twins manager Ron Gardenhire has said that he wants more pop on his bench and Butera certainly doesn't fit this offensive mold.
     
    Eduardo Escobar has said that he would serve as the emergency catcher for the club. The White Sox trusted him with this role in 2012 even though he never made it into a game behind the plate. He doesn't add a whole lot of offensive value but his ability to play multiple infield positions could help. Even Jeff Clement has offered to catch if the Twins find themselves in a pinch.
     
    During the coming year, Butera will turn 30-years old so it's not like he is a prospect in waiting. He might be forced to spend at least part of the season at the Triple-A level. That can't be too exciting for a player with over 500 plate appearances at the big league level.
     
    When it comes to the future, it's hard to know what it will hold for Butera. He will be arbitration eligible again at the end of this season but he might be getting to the point where he will be getting paid more than he is actually worth. Some might argue that he has already past that point but he will get one more run through the Twins system.
     
    Chris Herrmann will start the year in Rochester and there is a good chance he will play a more important role on next year's club. The 25-year old catcher/outfielder has slowly worked his way through the system since being drafted in 2009. His emergence could mean the end of Butera with the Twins.
     
    The Twins aren't yet sure if they will carry a third catcher for 2013 so it's hard to know what Butera's place will be with the club. Gardenhire and the front office used a roster spot on a third catcher for most of last year but it might be time for a change.
     
    The cost of carrying a third catcher might be too much...
  4. Cody Christie
    "Luck is the great stabilizer in baseball"--- Tris Speaker, Hall of Fame Centerfielder


     
    Baseball is a game of numbers. The statistical side of the game continues to grow as the Sabermetric world adds new information. There are stats for what seems like everything that a person can think of in relation to baseball.
     
    One area of baseball is hard to quantify and it can be the area that makes the game so exciting to follow. There is an element of luck involved and it can be the stabilizing effect on the game. Luck can be involved in everything from the location of a pitch, the way a ball squeaks through the infield, or even how a team aligns their defense.
     
    All of these small elements of luck can add up to wins and losses at the end of the year. Every run scored and every run allowed has an impact on the outcome of games. The luck factor adds something to baseball that allows fans for every team to have something to cheer about.
     
    In the book Baseball Between the Numbers, the Baseball Prospectus Team has an entire chapter devoted to managers and the moves they make during the course of a game and a season. Luck can play a factor in some of those moves. The manager has some control over the outcome of the game but how much luck is involved?
     
    One of the ways to look at how lucky a team was during a season is to compare their actual record to their Pythagorean record. For those not familiar with Pythagorean winning percentage, here is the definition from Baseball Reference.
    "Pythagorean winning percentage is an estimate of a team's winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed. Developed by Bill James, it can tell you when teams were a bit lucky or unlucky. It is calculated by:
     
    (Runs Scored)^1.83
    ---------------------------------------------------------
    (Runs Scored)^1.83 + (Runs Allowed)^1.83
     
    The traditional formula uses an exponent of two, but this has proven to be a little more accurate."


     
    To give an extreme example, look at last year's Baltimore Orioles. They used an excellent bullpen and a little luck in one run games to win 93 games and take home a wild card spot. Since the team only scored seven more runs than it allowed, their Pythagorean winning percentage had them winning 82 games.
     
    Ron Gardenhire has been at the helm for the Twins since the 2002 season. There have been some high and low points during his 11 years as manager. But the questions remains, how lucky have the Twins been during his tenure?
     
    Click here to see a comparison between the Twins actual win-loss record and their estimated Pythagorean win-loss record since Gardenhire took over as manager.
     
    As you can see in recent years, the Twins haven't strayed very far from their expected total. During the last eight seasons, the team has been within a couple games of their estimated mark. This shows that the formula is usually close to predicting the actual record of a club.
     
    The most recent outlier came in 2006. In that season, the Twins had to hunt down the Tigers in the last weekend of the season to win the Central. Minnesota needed those extra three wins or the team would have finished out of the playoffs. It would seem that luck favored the Twins in 2006.
     
    In the early years of Gardenhire's managerial career, there seemed to be even more luck on the side of his teams. The 2004 squad won 92 games and finished five games higher than their expected mark. Minnesota won the division by nine games so those five extra wins made little difference in their title.
     
    The 2003 squad has a little bit different story on their side. Much like the 2004 team, they finished five games higher than their Pythagorean W-L mark. The AL Central was much closer and the Twins only won the division by four contests. Chicago finished second and they were two wins under their estimated mark. A couple of bounces the other way and the White Sox might have been in the playoffs.
     
    Gardenhire's first year as manager saw the team exceed it's Pythagorean winning percentage mark by the most amount of games. Those eight extra wins were great and it helped the team to 94 wins, the most the team had won since the 1991 season. The team won the division by 13.5 games so all of those extra wins might not have been the difference in the race.
     
    It would seem that luck has been on the side of the Twins in more than one season of the course of the last decade. The 2003, 2006, and 2009 teams all needed their extra wins to raise another division championship banner. Take those titles away and Gardenhire's resume doesn't look nearly as good.
     
    Luck has been on the side of the Twins in more than one season and fans can only hope that the team's luck will return in the coming years.
  5. Cody Christie
    The grounds crew is getting the snow off of Target Field and the beginning of the regular season continues to inch closer. Twins players continue to represent the organization in the World Baseball Classic while others are training in Florida for the start of the year.
     
    It seems like Opening Day can't get here soon enough and it helps that Team USA keeps winning in the World Baseball Classic. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau could help the Stars and Stripes upend the two-time defending champion Team Japan. There are other games before that but it would still be a cool story.
     
    For now, here are some of the best baseball stories from the last week. Enjoy the latest edition of "Friday Links-N-Thinks" and have a great weekend!
     

    A shot story featuring the Twins own Trevor Plouffe has been released by Tommy Smith.
    If you want to win a sweet Diamond Centric shirt, make sure to enter the 2013 Twins Lineup Challenge.
    Is it time to lose patience with Joe Benson and his mullet?
    Here's a look at the Twins organizational depth at relief pitcher and a look at starting pitcher depth.
    John Sickles released his top 150 prospects and the Twins have plenty on the list.
    FanGraphs also released their top 100 prospects and there are two Twins in the top 20.
    Minnesota has the fourth pick in the draft and there are some intriguing names to pick from.
    Anthony Slama seemed like he deserved a shot at the end of last year but now his future might not be so bright...
    Alex Meyer sure left the Twins wanting more.
    In the World Baseball Classic, Sam Deduno showed some progress.
    Is Ron Gardenhire's message getting through to the team?
    Byron Buxton is in his first spring training and his strong work ethic is showing.
    The Pirates mascots were making fun of the Twins and their training staff.

     

    Former Twins pitcher Jim Kaat wants to throw sabermetrics "in the trash can."
    MLB Prediction Machine gives the Twins a 0% chance of winning the AL.
    Here is a PitchF/X look at Vance Worley.
    These pictures of Joe Mauer and Glen Perkins are great.
    Delmon Young needs to keep his weight down to earn some incentive and he is doing his best to meet those goals.
    Carlos Gomez is turning a hot hitting streak last year into a big money contract extension.
    If you want to play baseball like it's 1886, there's a league for you in San Francisco.
    The Astrodome continues to rot.
    Giancarlo Stanton has all kinds of power and he destroyed a windshield last weekend.

     
    My Weekly Rundown:

    Monday: Morneau, Plouffe set to surprise
    Tuesday: The Evolution of Aaron Hicks
    Wednesday: What's the Alex Meyer timeline?
    Training Days: Episode 3
    Thursday: Chris Colabello continues his fairy tale

     
    Video of the Week: Team Italy made a surprise run to the second round of the WBC. Twins players Drew Butera and Chris Colabello were on the roster and played a part in the team's success. Here is Colabello with one of his two home runs in the classic
  6. Cody Christie
    One of the best stories in the Twins organization in 2013 was the tale of a 28-year old man that got his first taste of baseball with an affiliated club. Chris Colabello had molded himself into one of the best hitters in the Canadian-American Association before the Twins signed him to deal. He spent all of last season being the elder statesman of the Eastern League while showing off his skills at the plate.
     
    The story of Colabello could get even better this year if he was able to make his MLB debut. He would be a 29-year old rookie and the thought of him being in the Twins line-up isn't too hard to imagine. Let's look back at what got him to this point and look ahead to what could bring him to the Twin Cities.
     
    After growing up and attending college in Massachusetts, Colabello wanted to continue his professional baseball career. No major league organization drafted him out of college so he found a team in the independent leagues. For six seasons, he played in the Canadian-American Association and he developed himself into one of the best hitters in this league.
     
    From 2005-2011, Colabello hit over .300 in every season. Those seven seasons saw him hit .317/.390/.514 with an average of 14 home runs a year. He showed the ability to play both corner infield positions and even a little outfield. The skills were there but no MLB teams came calling.
     
    Before the 2006 season, Colabello got to try out for the Italian World Baseball Classic team. He didn't make the squad but the Tigers took notice and invited him to spring training. His spring was good but he didn't make the club and he went back to the CAA. His persistence would finally pay off but not for another half of a decade.
     
    The 2011 season would be an eye-opening year for Colabello because he would put together the best season of his career. He hit .348/.410/.600 with 20 home runs and 32 doubles. He finished second in the league in home runs, batting average, RBI, and hits. He led the league in doubles and slugging percentage. At the end of the season, he would be named the Independent Leagues Player of the Year by Baseball America.
     
    Minnesota would offer him a chance for the start of the 2012 season. There weren't any promises made by the Twins and he didn't get a signing bonus but he was getting an opportunity. If he made a minor league team, he would be making less money then he had in the CAA but sometimes it's not about the money.
     
    Colabello would be sent to New Britain for the entirety of the 2012 season. He would hit .284/.358/.478 over 134 games. His numbers would be good enough to lead the Eastern League in doubles and he finished second in RBI, fourth in runs, and fourth in home runs. Darin Ruf would walk-away with the Eastern League MVP but Colabello would have strong runner up finish.
     
    He was finally living his dream and that dream has only gotten better so far this spring.
     
    The Twins wanted Colabello back in the organization and his performance last year was good enough for Team Italy to add him to their roster for the 2013 WBC. Italy would make a surprise trip to the second round of the WBC and Colabello was a key figure for their team. He hit .333/.368/.667 and he lead the team in home runs (2) and RBI (7).
     
    His strong showing this spring combined with his performance in the WBC could leave him knocking on the door to the big leagues. Ron Gardenhire has said he wants more pop on his bench this season. Colabello could have an opportunity to provide that pop while he lives out his dream of being a MLB player.
     
    The fairy tale ending for Colabello will be when he steps onto the field for his first big league game. It has been quite the journey but he has earned this opportunity. He might not be a prospect to build around but his story is one of the best.
     
    Spring training is full of hope and Colabello embodies the true definition of hope.
  7. Cody Christie
    In his first spring training with the Minnesota Twins, Alex Meyer did his best to impress those that were paying attention. The 23-year old right-hander was brought to the organization through the Denard Span trade with the Washington Nationals. Many consider him the top-pitching prospect in the organization and he did nothing to sway those opinions since joining the club.
     
    When the Twins made their first round of cuts on Sunday, he was one of the names heading to minor league camp. This was expected since he hasn't pitched above the Single-A level. He should start the year at the Double-A level with New Britain.
     
    Last season, he went 10-6 across both A levels in the Nationals farm system. He had a very good 2.86 ERA across 25 starts. He threw 129 innings with 139 strikeouts and 45 walks. Only 39 of his innings came at the High-A level but his number improved at the higher level. His ERA was 2.31 and his WHIP dropped from 1.13 to 1.02.
     
    The well publicized trade to bring him to the organization and his performance so far leaves speculation about when he could be making his Target Field debut.
     
    If Meyer looked dominant in the first months of the season, the young pitcher could move quickly through the system. The Double-A level might prove to too easy and he could find himself moving into the Rochester rotation. If his domination continued at Triple-A, the Twins might have no choice but to call him up at mid-season. This would be the earliest that Meyer would make his debut.
     
    There is always the chance that the Twins will want to take it easy with Meyer. A couple of bad starts in the early part of the season and the team might want to leave him at Double-A until the middle part of the year. This might mean a trip to Rochester won't come until later in the year. This would mean a September call-up might be the best that Meyer could hope for.
     
    Things don't always go as planned in the minor leagues. Twins fans are familiar with this trend when it comes to the top pitching prospects in their farm system. Meyer might have a rough year at Double-A and this could mean that he won't advance beyond that level. There are things that the Twins want him to work on and it might take some time and experience to reach that level.
     
    Next spring training, the Twins could be in a similar position with Meyer. He will be in big league camp but there will probably still be questions about where he should start the year. Will the Twins want him in the rotation at the big league level? Should he be sent to Rochester for more experience?
     
    There are going to be plenty of eyes on Meyer this season and it will be interesting to see how he handles the pressure. In the Nationals organization, there were other pitchers like Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez at the big league level to take the focus off of him. In the Twins system, he is the top of the list and there will be plenty of hype surrounding his call-up.
     
    The fastest that Meyer would make his debut is the middle of 2013. If he doesn't get off to a fast start, he might have to wait for a September call-up. The Twins might bide their time with Meyer. This would mean that he might not make an appearance until the beginning of 2014 when the club has a better shot at getting back to the top.
     
    Meyer might be the Twins future ace but fans are going to have to be patient. No matter what his timeline is...
     
    When do you think Meyer will make his debut? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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