CoryMoen

Agreed! Injuries could be a huge factor. Hopefully the Twins improved depth helps if a player goes down.

In looking at the 2023 schedule a bit closer, the Twins schedule in April may be the most important month of the year. Not only, as it is every year, will it be important to get off to a good start, the schedule has some tough matchups, and, what should be, very winnable series as well. Here is a breakdown of the first month of the season: 3 @ Kansas City Royals 3 @ Miami Marlins 3 vs Houston Astros 3 vs Chicago White Sox 4 @ New York Yankees 3 @ Boston Red Sox 3 vs Washington Nationals 3 vs New York Yankees 4 vs Kansas City Royals I first wanted to look at the head to head record against these teams this past year. The Twins had a combined record of 28-30 against these opponents. They did not play against either Miami or Washington in the 2022 season. So against the other 6 teams, they had a losing record. While this might not be a great sign, if you take the Astros and Yankees out as well, the combined record is 26-19. So, as I mentioned, getting off to a strong start is important in wanting to win the division and make the playoffs. It appears the Twins are capable of finishing April above .500, but they will need to play well to do so. If they play as poorly against the Yankees and Astros as they did in 2022, they will have to be almost flawless against the other teams during the month, which is not a great recipe for success. Now let's break down what the Twins need to do to have a successful first month of the season this coming year: 3 @ Kansas City: The Twins record against the Royals in 2022 was 12-7. This is the type of record they will need to have this coming year if they want to win the division again. It's hard to sweep a 3 game series, so a good start to the season would be winning 2 out of 3 in Kansas City. Record: 2-1 3 @ Miami: The Miami Marlins went 69-93 this past season, but have improved in some areas as well (see Arraez, Luis). While the Marlins are an interesting team and have a pretty solid rotation going forward, they will likely be having their 4/5/1 starters going in this series. A 2-1 record feels realistic in this scenario. Record: 4-2 3 vs Houston: Man, did the Twins play horrible against the Astros in 2022. In the 6 matchups, the Twins were outscored 11-36. The later matchups were closer, but they still lost all of them. The Astros are one of the favorites to represent the American League in the World Series in 2023. I would like to believe the Twins will play better against the Astros this year, especially in their first series at home, but it's not a given. I will say it would be great if they went 2-1, but would expect a 1-2 record instead. Record: 5-4 3 vs Chicago: The Twins and White Sox were pretty evenly matched throughout the year, with the Twins winning the season series 10-9. Both teams are hoping (and probably expecting) improvement from last year, but if the Twins can continue to have success versus Chicago and win 2 out of 3 in this series, they will finish the first homestand 3-3. This isn't ideal, but not bad given the matchups of Houston and Chicago to start it. Record: 7-5 4 @ New York: If you have been mildly paying attention to baseball for the past 20 years or so, you have probably noticed the Twins record is abysmal when playing in New York, or heck, playing against the Yankees anywhere. Maybe they should try playing on the moon or something? Anyways, the Twins have had very little success in New York since I can even remember, but going 2-2 on the road in New York would be a pretty solid matchup. Because it appears the Twins may be cursed when it comes to the Yankees, I am tempering my expectations and say they can go 1-3 in New York and still have a successful first month. Record: 8-7 3 @ Boston: The Red Sox are an interesting team in the sense that they have let moved on from stars, such as Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts, but have retained Rafael Devers going forward. They also signed Mastaka Yoshida, who I am excited to see transition to MLB and I think could be a pretty solid addition going forward. While I don't think they should have traded a generational talent in Betts, they deemed it the right move. Because the Red Sox are in a weird flux position and I'm not convinced they have improved enough to stay competitive, I will say the Twins are capable and need to win 2 out of 3 games in Boston to start off successfully in 2023. Record: 10-8 3 vs Washington: While the Red Sox moved on from Betts, the Nationals moved on from Juan Soto, who has received comparisons to Ted Williams. Soto is now in San Diego, and the Nationals are in a free fall from their championship in 2019. The Nationals went 55-107 last year and while their young guys are improving, it's not clear they will be a competitive team this coming season. Winning 2 out of 3 versus Washington will be key to the first month of the year. Record: 12-9 3 vs New York: It feels realistic to think the Twins could be 12-9 at this point, and facing New York will be another tough test, about 10 days after they played them first. After winning 2 out of 3 against both Boston and Washington, I would hope the Twins come in with some confidence and play well. To have a successful first month, the Twins will need to either split the 4 games in New York and/or win 2 out of 3 in this series a week and a half later. I will say they have to win 2 out of 3 to not have people wondering too much if they are for real or not. Record: 14-10 4 vs Kansas City: The Twins finish the month off versus the lowly Royals, who happen to always give the Twins a tough matchup it seems. 4 games series are always a little weird and it seems like the Twins always go 2-2 in those matchups, I think the Twins are capable of winning 3 out of 4 against the Royals, but I will say they only need to win 2 out of 4 with where they are at to have the first month be deemed a success. Record: 16-12 While a 16-12 record doesn't mean it would be a resounding success, with a total of 10 of those games being against the Yankees and Astros, this record would not be the worst possible outcome. While I think they could win 2 out of 4 in New York, or even win the Astros series, I think it's hard to say they will definitively do either of those things. While it's possible to not play well against the Yankees and Astros and still finish the month off with a winning record, it's not something Twins fans would feel great about if they get dominated by those teams that are considered favorites in the American League. (Note: This has the Twins going 4-6 against these two teams). Now that I see that, going 5-5 in those matchups could be a decent outcome. I am pretty confident that if the Twins finish the first month 16-12, or even 15-13, or better, they will be set up to succeed going into the dog days of summer. One thing I think that will be interesting is that they will play every team in the league this year, which means less games against their AL Central foes. The Twins went 39-37 versus the division last year, which they will need to be better than that to win the division, without a doubt. I would like to believe they will be better against Cleveland than they were in 2022 (6-13). Let me know in the comments if you think this is realistic in your eyes, or if you think I am too high or too low on the level of success the Twins need to have in the first month of the season.

Thank you! Totally agree! I love more depth, and not having to rush guys, like you said, is really nice!

As you have likely seen at this point, the Twins signed Infielder Donovan Solano to a 1 year, $2 million dollar deal. When you first look at this deal, you may have thought that Solano is a similar role to Kyle Farmer and seems to be redundant. While there may be some overlap, I think there are a few reasons where both guys still get a good amount of at bats this year, especially against lefties. So let's compare Solano to a few other guys that I saw many people mention as targets for the Twins, Luke Voit and Yuli Gurriel. One reason the ladder two guys were brought up was their ability to hit lefties, so let's look at that first. Luke Voit versus lefties in 2022 had the following line: .174/.298/.271. I will concede that these stats are lower than his career .236/.329/.439 line against lefties. Yuli Gurriel versus lefties in 2022 had the following line: .265/.298/.441. These are slightly lower than his career .282/.333/.474 line against lefties as well. As for the Twins most recent acquisition, here are his stats versus lefties: Donovan Solano had a slash line of .301/.348/.422 line versus lefties in 2022. His career line is .282/.322/.389. The next thing I wanted to compare these players on was their Walk%, K% and their projected WAR going forward. Walk %: Voit: 10.2% Gurriel: 5.7% Solano: 5.7% K %: Voit: 28.5% Gurriel: 11.2% Solano: 18.0% Projected WAR (using ZiPS): Voit: 0.8 WAR Gurriel: 1.5 WAR Solano: 1.2 WAR Seeing these stats, you might try to say that Gurriel would be the best choice of the three for a fit. The reason I think this is not the case can be summed up in one word: versatility. Donovan Solano can not only play 1B, but can also play 2B, 3B, and will likely get some ABs as a DH as well, against lefties specifically. Gurriel at this point in his career is a 1B with the ability to DH of course as well. Voit is a 1B/DH as well. Not to overlook Solano's ability to hit against righties as well. He doesn't hit righties super well, but can at least give you a good AB if needed. He has a career slash line of .276/.329/.367 against RHP. One thing to remember is Solano is a depth piece who, similar to Kyle Farmer, will play mostly against LHP with occasional starts coming against RHP. Solano's versatility will also be helpful in case someone gets dinged up (which will happen at some point) and as a potential defensive replacement depending on who is in the game as well. Solano hits a lot of line drives, as evidence by his career .332 BABIP. I'd like to make this clear, I don't think Donovan Solano is an all star level player, but I think he's a solid depth piece that gives manager Rocco Baldelli another option this coming year. The Twins depth is much different than the past years, and hopefully this means they learned their lesson regarding not being too top heavy on the roster and not having as much depth. Let me know what you all think of the Solano signing. Who do you think this bumps off the roster? My gut reaction says Larnach, but maybe things change before opening day (perhaps a trade?).

If Mahle is healthy, I absolutely agree there! He can be a key piece if things work the right way. As for a RH bat, it would be a luxury, but I also don't think it's necessary. I like Profar as a player, but he is better against righties than lefties, so doesn't exactly fix this problem. I do love me some good positional flexibility though. As for a reliever, I think there are a couple guys out there but if they don't fall in love with any of them there are also a few internal options as well maybe? Who could be this year's Griffin Jax? Josh Winder, Jordan Balazovic, or even Matt Canterino are guys who pop out to me as potential moves to the bullpen because of performance or injuries. Not saying it's a perfect solution, but it's possible one of those guys end up putting together a productive year. I always find it fascinating to see what front offices do to metaphorically "put the cherry on top" of the offseason.

Good point. I like that they aren't expecting him to be a traditional 3 hitter or something. They know they signed a guy with low average and massive power and very good defense. If he can play good defense, as well as hit some HRs, he should be valuable. He doesn't need to be a .300/.400/.500 guy to be valuable, but boy would that be incredible if somehow that happened (it won't).

I would agree there. I think the big argument is that there would be some guys taking steps forward (Miranda, for example) as well as guys (hopefully) not being as injured (Buxton, Larnach, Kirilloff, Polanco to name a few). I think it's a combination of injuries as well as guys putting things together at the right time. I don't think the offense will be abysmal, but I also don't anticipate a 2019 level either. I think a solid offense that scores enough runs to give you a chance to win with a good/above average defense combined with a hopefully improved pitching staff will lead to more success. As you said, time will tell. I think Gallo fits into that as well. Could prove to be an incredible pick up, could be a decent but unspectaculr pick up, or could not be a great pick up and lose at bats toward the end of the year to young guys. I'm thankful they aren't depending on someone like him to be THE guy. They have plenty of depth and Gallo shouldn't be hitting near the top of the lineup, unless it's a really good matchup or something of that sort. I would suspect Gallo gets most of his ABs in the 5-8 hole in the lineup. But I could be totally wrong about that.

Love this concept! I think the goals are pretty realistic. I'm thinking Ryan even as a middle of the rotation guy is a very good spot for him. I think Mahle can clear that IP mark, as long as health is on his side. I'd love to collaborate further and do one for the whole pitching staff, or maybe even do one for hitters too!? Let me know!

I would bet most of you had a similar thought to me when you saw the Twins signed Joey Gallo to a 1 year, $11 million deal for 2023... That thought being "Max Kepler must be getting traded." While that hasn't materialized, a few other moves have that have led to the Twins holding onto Kepler as their starting Right Fielder, as of now. Max Kepler is still a productive player, and projects to have a solid enough year this year as well. ZiPs projects Kepler to have a slash line of .231/.320/.410, which is projected for a 2.3 fWAR. Not spectacular, but a solid regular nonetheless. As for Gallo, his skillset is different than Kepler's, which makes them both valuable, but in different ways. Gallo has significantly more power, but likely a much lower batting average. Sound familiar? Yes, similar to Miguel Sano. One key different in Gallo is that he is a gold-glove level player in the OF, which adds to his value much more than Sano ever had. Gallo's ZiPs projections are .194/.330/.426, which is good for a 2.9 fWAR. He is also projected for 25 HR and 60 RBI. Now let's compare Gallo and Sano, who many people are making comparisons to: In comparing Gallo to Sano, you may seem some similarities, such as a high strikeout rate. Gallo (37.3% K rate for his career), Sano (36.4% K rate for his career). Another similarity is the prodigious power both players have. Gallo has hit 38+ HR 3 times, which is what the Twins FO is hoping for going forward. As for Sano, he hit 30 HR one time, in 2021. The differences are the key to why Joey Gallo should be more valuable than Sano. Sano was not great defensively, accounting for -9 Defensive Runs saved at 1B over his career and -32 Defensive Runs Saved at 3B over his career. I'm going to ignore the horrible time he had in the OF in 2016 for the sake of this discussion. Meanwhile, Gallo has been worth a whopping 37 DRS in the outfield since 2019, which is good for 3rd in MLB, tied with Byron Buxton, and trailing Michael A. Taylor (Twins 4th OF) and Mookie Betts. Pretty darn good company, I would say. So let's look at a direct comparison to see if Gallo is similar to Sano, or if he is a different player using the 5-tools of a player. Skill Sano Gallo Contact I would say this is similar. Low batting average, high K% for both guys. Power X I’d give this to Gallo because of the more consistent power across multiple seasons. 3 seasons of 38+ HR and Sano only having one season at 30 HR. Speed X I’d give a slight edge to Gallo solely because he has 29 career SB versus Sano’s 5. Neither guy steals a ton of bases. Also – Joey Gallo’s average sprint speed is 27.1 and Sano’s is 26.7 so Gallo is slightly faster. Arm Sano had a very strong arm when he played at 3B, but at 1B, your arm isn’t shown off quite as much. Gallo has had some good years in OF assists, but it is hard to give the edge to one guy over the other when comparing this tool. Fielding X As discussed above, Gallo is a gold-glove winning fielder, and to put it simply, Sano is not. In using this to compare the two players, yes, there are absolutely similarities, but there are key differences that show Joey Gallo will be a much more valuable player to the Twins. This may be attributed to the position he plays, but I also think it will be contributed to his power and his glove more than anything. What do you all think? Is Joey Gallo another Miguel Sano, or will he prove to be a sneaky good pick-up for the Twins this year?

Upside, but lots of questions is why he went unclaimed. I hope he can get things to click this coming year, but I foresee a move to the bullpen being a real possibility at this point. Unfortunate injuries, no doubt.

What does signing Carlos Correa do to the Twins roster in 2023 and going forward? It's safe to say he improves the roster, as Carlos Correa is projected for 4.9 WAR according to his Steamer Projection for 2023. In comparison, Kyle Farmer is projected for 0.9 WAR by the same projection. This shows that Correa is a significant upgrade over not having him as the starting Shortstop in 2023. Now that we know that, what does the rest of the roster construction look like if Opening Day were tomorrow? Is there anyone that should make it that won't? Or that possibly, doesn't deserve it that will make it? Let us take a look... Catcher: Christian Vazquez Ryan Jeffers Vazquez will likely play 60-65% of the games behind the plate, and Jeffers will get most of his games versus lefties and the occasional righty. This catching duo should be a pretty solid group, as both catchers are good at framing, and Vazquez, in particular, is good at throwing out potential base stealers. Others on the 40 man roster: None - There are multiple catchers who will start the year at AAA who have major league experiences, including Chance Cisco and Tony Wolters. Infield: Alex Kirilloff - I am assuming Kirilloff will play first base due to the crowded corner OF mix. Jorge Polanco Carlos Correa Jose Miranda Luis Arraez Kyle Farmer I think this could end up being a very good infield. Correa is a proven commodity, as is Polanco at this point. The front office believes Miranda can play 3B every day, and there is no reason to believe that he cannot handle that right now. Kirilloff, when healthy, has shown that he has a world of potential. It's not just about putting it together. Arraez will play some 1B, as well as likely be the primary DH. Kyle Farmer has proven he can play multiple positions, and he may even possibly fill in versus left-handed pitchers in the corner outfield as well. Others on the 40 man roster: Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien Lewis is recovering from his second ACL surgery, but has shown flashes. He has potential to fill-in at 3B or in the outfield when he comes back. He will likely get at bats in AAA and if his recovery goes as planned, he will be on the roster come mid-summer. Julien is getting hype, much like Jose Miranda was a year ago. There are questions about his defensive home, but if he continues to hit, he will be in the lineup. Outfield: Joey Gallo Byron Buxton Max Kepler Nick Gordon Gilberto Celestino The starting OF as of right now from left to right, is likely Gallo, Buxton, and Kepler. Will Kepler get traded? Time will tell, but since he is still on the roster, he is the starting RF. The big question with this group is will Gallo and Kepler bounce back from disappointing years with the shift being banned, or will they continue to slide and turn into shells of their former selves. I have faith in both, but also understand that trading Kepler could be advantageous if it ends up improving the roster. Nick Gordon can also fill in at 2B and versatility is nice when injuries are inevitable over a 162 game season. I struggled with the last outfield spot, but it made more sense to add Celestino over the names below because he is a viable CF option if/when Buxton has to take a day or two off. Celestino showed struggles, but has also shown flashes of being productive. I'm on the fence on if I believe he can get past the proverbial "4th OF" tag, but even if he doesn't, he is a guy who can play all three OF positions, which is always helpful, and depth is important. Others on the 40 man roster: Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner Both have shown potential, but will likely start the year at AAA getting at bats. Larnach was injured last year so getting regular at bats will be a good thing for his development. I have more faith in Wallner as a long-term piece at this point between these two, but he will need to cut down on strikeouts if he wants to be anything more than an average corner OF. He has a cannon of an arm and he has shown that off, going back to his college days. (Note: I worked at Southern Miss when he was a student there and he was a ton of fun to watch in college). Starting Rotation: Sonny Gray Tyler Mahle Joe Ryan Bailey Ober Kenta Maeda I have decided to go with a six man rotation because multiple of these players have dealt with injuries, most prominently Kenta Maeda. I saw an idea recently of piggybacking Bailey Ober and Kenta Maeda to begin the season because they are both coming off injuries and will likely need a little extra time to get up to strength. I am very excited for Tyler Mahle to be healthy, because I believe he can be a front-line starter. Now don't come after me, I don't think he's a true ace (there are only a handful in the game, in my opinion) but I think he is a good enough SP to be in a playoff rotation, which is something that is important for a team with playoff aspirations. Sonny Gray dealt with some injuries but was pretty productive and will hopefully have another great year. Joe Ryan took a big step forward and looks to have cemented himself in the rotation for the next handful of years going forward as a mid-rotation option. Bullpen: Jhoan Duran Jorge Lopez Griffin Jax Caleb Thielbar Emilio Pagan Jovani Moran Jorge Alcala Trevor Megill I think this group has a ton of potential and the bullpen is in a much better place than they were one year ago. Duran proved he is a high-octane arm that can be a fireman, closer, or multi-inning weapon out of the bullpen. I think using him in the higher leverage situations is the smartest move, not necessarily in a traditional closer role. This bullpen has a decently high floor and with bounce backs from both Jorge Lopez and Emilio Pagan and Jorge Alcala being productive, this bullpen has the potential to be lethal and a strength of this roster. The possibility of adding one more bullpen arm is exciting because it makes the group potentially go from a good bullpen to a great one. Others on the 40 man roster: A.J. Alexy, Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, Brent Headrick, Ronny Henriquez, Cole Sands, Louie Varland, Josh Winder, and Simeon Woods-Richardson This group has some depth, which is not something you have been able to say in the past. Alexy, Henriquz, Sands, Varland, Winder, and Woods-Richardson all have major league experience, at varying levels. I think the key to this group is that the depth can turn into a strength. I would guess all of the names on this list will pitch at some point in the big leagues this next year, so having depth and guys with varying levels of potential is exciting as a Twins fan. How many wins do you think this roster can get? Let me know in the comments below! My prediction would be 85-90 wins, with the potential of more.

Agreed wholeheartedly! I think the 6 year deal with the vesting options/team options was a great move! I'm very excited about the deal!

Agreed that I think it's a good deal! The front-loaded aspect of it is great, imo! Here's to hoping he's a part of the next team that wins a playoff game!

Per Reports, the Twins have signed Carlos Correa to a 6 year, $200 million deal. The deal includes vesting options. 502 plate appearances in year 6 - $25 million dollars for year 7. Total value can increase to $245 million if an 8th year happens. This is per Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic and Jeff Passan of ESPN. Reminder - This is pending a physical. What do people think?

I've always liked Balazovic, but this is his year to either put up or shut up. Love the list though! One thing I think about Julien is where is his defensive home? 2B is kind of deep, so he could be a DH, but that limits how much a guy ends up being worth. As for Martin and Lee, both are exciting for different reasons. I hope Martin can continue what he did in the AFL. Lee, even if he doesn't stick at SS can be a valuable guy regardless. I think the September prediction is about right, barring staying healthy and such.