Lou Hennessy

The Twins made a much-needed trade for an all-star reliever at last year’s deadline, but what they got fell short of expectations. Can Jorge López rediscover what made him so successful in the first half of last year? Image courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports In late-July of last year, the Twins were still grasping to a small division lead, with more holes seemingly appearing by the day. One of the biggest gaps in their roster at the time fell between superstar relief ace Jhoan Duran – and pretty much anyone else in their relief corps. Sure, Griffin Jax had built some trust equity from the skipper, as did Caleb Thielbar. They weren’t all-star caliber players, but they could be trusted to pass the baton in a relay that led to Duran. The team then went out and made a trade for the star-level arm that was desperately needed to help bridge the gap. Enter Jorge López. The former Baltimore Oriole was having a career-year when the Twins acquired him in exchange for pitching prospects Cade Povich and Yennier Cano. He had a fantastic 1.68 ERA with a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 60% ground ball rate, leading to his first all star nod. His fastballs ran hot, with an average of 97.4 MPH for his four-seamer and 98 MPH on his preferred sinker, and he paired them with a slew of secondary offerings that have carried over from his time as a starting pitcher. His curveball, in particular, was a real weapon, with his slider and changeup serving as additional tricks up his sleeve. So Lopez had big strikeout numbers, got plenty of ground ball outs, and had two and a half years of club control at the time of the trade. What’s not to like? While he wasn’t a train wreck with his new team, Lopez’s first two months as a Twin were disappointing based on the expectations that were set when the team acquired him. In that time, he had a 4.37 ERA across 23 innings pitched, due in large part to a walk rate (13.7%) that nearly eclipsed his strikeout percentage (17.6%). Lopez’s sinker was his bread and butter in the first few months of the season, but its success trailed off considerably once the calendar flipped to July. In the first three months of the 2022 campaign, he allowed just 11 hits on that offering, but in the second half that figure nearly doubled to 20 (six of which went for extra bases). This pitch wasn’t just his most used offering, but it was a notable choice when deciding what to use as a “put away” pitch – or what he used in an effort to get a strikeout once he got to two strikes in the count. That rate for his sinker went from about 16.5% in April and May, all the way up to 29.6% in June and July, but then it plummeted to just 4.5% by the time September rolled around. That’s a big kick to his confidence in his best pitch. That "put away" pitch selection is vital to Lopez’s end results because he’s one of the best at getting to that point when facing opposing hitters, especially those that are right-handed. Last year, he was able to get at least two strikes in the first three pitches against 73% of the right-handed hitters that he faced, according to Inside Edge. Obviously that can be a huge advantage in the grand scheme of things, and indeed it was for the first half of last season when he had a 28.7% strikeout rate. But for whatever reason -- whether it was trying a different pitch mix, or his sinker lost some zip, or he wasn’t locating his pitches as well, or hitters were merely catching up to him -- he was unable to tap into that put away stuff in the second half. That could come across as a grim outlook going forward. Baseball fans suffer from perpetual recency bias, and Lopez’s most recent month of work was uninspiring. However, the Twins don’t need him to be the monster that he was for Baltimore in the first few months of last season. They just need him to be in the same mix as Jax and Thielbar, which is probably somewhere between the two poles that Lopez set last season. The Twins need him to be in that group of guys that can be trusted in a relay that leads to Duran taking on the highest-leverage situations at or near the end of the game. But what do you think? Can Jorge Lopez regain some of his value that the team had in mind when they traded for him? Or did the club get duped into buying-high on an inconsistent arm? Let us know your thoughts and expectations in the comments below. View full article

In 2020, Kenta Maeda ran the game and had the whole world talkin'. After a brilliant stretch of 11 starts, he was crowned the king of the Twins rotation. But Tommy John surgery has kept him out of action for nearly 18 months. What are reasonable expectations for King Kenta as he makes his triumphant return to his kingdom? Image courtesy of William Parmeter While the pandemic-shortened 2020 season consisted of just 60 games, it gave Twins fans a performance that they had been begging for. Finally, a pitcher was able to break through as a true frontline starter, even if it was an abbreviated campaign. Kenta Maeda assumed his throne that year as he twirled 67 innings of 2.70 ERA ball across 11 starts. He established new career-bests in strikeout rate (32.3%), walk rate (4.0%), swinging strike rate (17.2%) and WHIP (0.75). That led to a second-place finish in the Cy Young award competition, and vindicated the franchise’s years-long pursuit of a true ace-level pitcher. Or so we thought. Maeda took an expected step back in 2021. He was still serviceable through July (4.40 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate) but it became clear that his ailment was becoming increasingly more troublesome. He ultimately succumbed to Tommy John surgery in August 2021, and was banished from his kingdom while he recovered. Now, he’s returning to the rotation after roughly 17 months of recovery. But what should Twins fans expect from their former king? Two of the most-popular projection models agree that his per-pitch numbers will closely resemble his pre-injury self from 2021. ZiPS and Steamer both predict he’ll finish the year with an ERA around 4.15, slightly lower strikeout rates at around 22% and a 1.27 WHIP. Their differences however, lie in Maeda’s ability to remain in the starting rotation. Steamer thinks he’ll start 24 games and they project him for 150 innings pitched. That raises his predicted wins above replacement to 1.4, which is totally respectable for a starter’s first season after returning from Tommy John surgery. ZiPS, however, thinks that Maeda will only manage to start 15 games, and will be limited to just 83 innings pitched. This limits their predicted WAR figure for the veteran right-hander to just 0.9 in 2023. Upon first glance, it would be sensible that the ZiPS projection is factoring a mid-season role change for Maeda due to an inning limitation. However, they only predict that he’ll make three appearances out of the bullpen, even with the low games started prediction. That essentially means that they think Kenta Maeda will have trouble staying healthy in 2023. That’s not unheard of for players coming back from an extended absence, and injury limitations are certainly not uncharted territory for this Twins roster. One model thinks Maeda bounces back as a starter, and stays relatively healthy. The other sees him breaking down and only pitching about half as many innings. Time will tell which projection will be more accurate. Perhaps a look at another arm that recently bounced back from Tommy John surgery can help provide some more reasonable expectations for King Kenta in 2023. Noah Syndergaard had this procedure in March of 2020, just after spring training was halted due to the pandemic. He also had an extended recovery period, as he didn’t return to game action until late-September in 2021, roughly 18 months after his surgery. Even then, he only appeared in two games as a one-inning opener before having another five months of recovery in the off-season. Syndergaard returned to full-strength heading into the 2022 season, where he finished the year with a 3.94 ERA across 24 starts between the Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies. He tossed 135 innings last year, and though his strikeout rate slipped considerably (26.4% from 2015-2019, 16.8% in 2022), he still managed to accumulate a respectable 2.2 wins above replacement. Syndergaard was able to be this successful by limiting hitters to soft contact – which has also been a calling card of Maeda throughout his career. It should be noted that there are a handful of differences between Syndergaard and Maeda when comparing their respective recoveries. Notably, the former was one of the hardest throwers in the history of the game before his surgery, averaging 98.1 MPH on his heater in that time. Maeda, on the other hand, has never relied on fastball velocity, but rather the quality of his secondary offerings. In his first spring training appearance last week, his fastball did average about 90.3 MPH. That’s an encouraging sign, as it averaged about 91.6 MPH in his brilliant 2020 season. Of course, remaining healthy is going to be the defining factor for the 35-year-old this season, and for the rest of his career for that matter. But if he can have similar production to Syndergaard in his first year back in action, the Twins would gladly take that. He may not be returning to the throne that he held in 2020, but King Kenta is no longer banished from his kingdom. What are your expectations for Maeda in 2023 and beyond? Can he follow Syndergaard’s lead in having a relatively successful season? Let us know what you think in the comments below. View full article

The Twins bullpen is mostly set for the start of the upcoming season. Should they roll with what they have, or make one last addition by bringing home a native Minnesotan for that last spot? Image courtesy of Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports The Twins find themselves in a heated hand of five-card draw. They like most of the cards they’re holding in the bullpen, but they could take a chance on trading in their last piece for a fresh one in the hopes that it complements their hand better. There are plenty of face cards in this hand, including relief ace Jhoan Duran, veteran king Caleb Thielbar, and a young jack, or should I say Jax, rather. Other members in their relief corps such as Jorge Lopez or Jorge Alcala could find themselves in that high-value card class, but the jury is still out on if they can be counted on to be healthy and/or effective. Still, the club could be looking to add one last card in the hopes of landing a royal flush. But is it really worth it to go for a wild card, or should the Twins stick with the hand they were dealt? Imperfect analogies aside, the club has been tied by Darren Wolfson to veteran southpaw Brad Hand, who is coming off of a relatively successful, if uninspiring, 2022 season. Right now, the last member of the Twins’ bullpen is projected to be righty Trevor Megill, who showcased a blazing fastball in the last few months of the season but left much to be desired overall. Adding Hand to the mix carries a possibility that he continues to outshine his peripherals, as has been the case since he transitioned to a full-time reliever in 2016. Even just last season, he had a fantastic 2.80 ERA despite having a 4.40 xERA. The expected figure is due in large part to his unspectacular 1.65 K/BB rate, an unexciting 7.3% swinging strike rate, and diminishing values on his fastball as the season wore on. But aside from the discouraging numbers under the hood, he managed to throw 45 innings of mostly unproblematic baseball in 2022. So would the Twins be wise to bring him on board with an inexpensive one-year deal? Let’s start with the upside of such a deal. As the last few years have shown us, you can never have too many options in a relief corps. Signing Hand likely moves Megill down to Triple-A for the time being, but the Twins wouldn’t be required to drop anyone from their 40-man roster. Both Chris Paddack and Royce Lewis are now eligible to be moved to the 60-day injured list, which would remove them from the 40-man roster until reinstatement. If Hand produces as expected, he’d be the third left-handed pitcher in the projected bullpen depth chart. Thielbar is a lock as a high-leverage option, and Jovani Moran is bound to get more time after impressing in 41 MLB innings last year. Sure, Moran has shown more success against right-handed batters thanks to his big changeup, but he’s had success against fellow lefties, as well (12 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 vs. LHH). So overall, it's not too much of a gamble just to have Hand aboard. The downside of such a move isn’t that someone like Megill misses MLB opportunities. There are bound to be multiple injuries throughout the season and surely the big-league club will have to tap into the depth stashed in St. Paul. The downside comes from the Twins’ recent track record of giving established MLB veterans too long of a leash when their performance underwhelms. From J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker, to Tyler Duffey and Joe Smith, sometimes it feels as if the decision-makers are more concerned with hurting their reputation as a veteran-friendly organization rather than the results on the field. Granted, sometimes that patience pays off. In 2021, Alex Colome had a brutal 8.31 ERA in April before turning things around (3.51 ERA from May 1st through the end of the season). But in that first month, the club was unable to remove him from high-leverage situations, whether due to a lack of MLB-quality replacements or an excess of confidence in Colome’s projected regression to the mean. That lack of action regarding the veteran (among other things) essentially derailed their hopes of contention by May. After two consecutive losing seasons, the Twins can’t afford to have that same mindset with someone like Hand, especially given the fact that he would likely be their sole addition to the bullpen. Their efforts might be better suited to give their current cards more playing time and reevaluate their needs down the line. Maybe Kenta Maeda eventually transitions to the bullpen as he approaches an inning limit in his first season post-Tommy John surgery. Perhaps someone like Megill or Ronny Henriquez emerges as a relief weapon. Maybe one of their back-end starters such as Josh Winder or Bailey Ober gets a boost from moving to a relief role. The team is bound to have a handful of options in 2023, and they need to put their chips behind those who will find the most success rather than trying to squeeze out as much value as they can from an aging veteran. But what do you think? Are the Twins better off sticking with the hand that they were dealt, or should they try for the Hand that's still available on the free agent market? Let us know what you think in the comments below. View full article

With high expectations they raised the floor Pitchers and catchers report Our minds were blown with a little C4 Pitchers and catchers report So come as my guest, there's no need to thank me It's time to dust off that old Homer Hanky At least we're not the answer to "where Frankie?" Pitchers and catchers report!

Killed it once again! These are gold 😂

I'm sorry but this take is just too logical, level-headed and reasonable. I'm going to have to ask you to bring some heat the next time you hop in these comments. All kidding aside -- I really like this response and it's just about where my head is at when it comes to this topic.

That's a really good point. The game has certainly changed. Maybe our definition of ace needs to change with it. Regardless, Gray certainly needs to level up if he's going to be in the same conversation as guys like Verlander, DeGrom, Kershaw, etc.

"Of course, this comparison is totally hypothetical. At the end of the day, Gray didn’t pitch those additional 25 innings, and who’s to say he would be just as effective if he had?" Definitely not trying to give him credit for games he didn't pitch. I was merely trying to show the quality of his work when he did pitch in 2022. FWIW I absolutely consider Woodruff, Cortes, Wheeler and Castillo to be far closer to ace-level than Gray.

Feels like quite the catch-22 here: Gray can't be seen as an ace if Rocco pulls him before he faces the order for a third time. Rocco can't reasonably keep Gray in if he gets nailed when facing the order for a third time.

Just curious -- How many aces do you think there are in baseball right now?

Interesting. I think I disagree on that definition of an Ace, but I agree that Gray isn't one at the moment. I'd take 2.4 WAR from him in 2023, but here's hoping it's even higher with a healthy season.

While the Twins’ 2023 rotation looks much deeper than last year’s group, many would say that they still lack a true ace on the staff. How close is Sonny Gray to being that guy? Image courtesy of Lindsey Wasson-USA TODAY Sports Pitchers and catchers officially report to spring training next week, and all eyes are going to be on a group of arms that make up the five-man starting rotation. Sure, a lot can happen throughout the course of the spring, but the club pretty much has five names penciled in for their starting corps. If healthy, veterans Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, and Pablo Lopez join a rotation that will feature last year’s Opening Day starter, Joe Ryan. But the man that rounds out that group is the one that most closely resembles a frontline starter. Sonny Gray was limited to just 120 innings pitched last year, but he mostly showed the peripheral stats that offer ace-level upside when he was able to take the field. That resulted in strong surface-level marks, including a 3.08 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. His 2.7 BB/9 was the strongest mark in his last six seasons, and while his 8.8 K/9 was his lowest rate since 2018, he was able to get outs by allowing fewer barreled balls (78th percentile). Unfortunately, a nagging hamstring issue put Gray on the shelf at various points during the 2022 campaign, including the final three weeks of the season. If these injury woes didn’t hold him back, how close would he be to a true ace? Let’s say he remained healthy enough to keep going at the same pace in the final three weeks last year. That probably equates to about four additional appearances, not to mention his final start on September 19th when he had to leave in the third inning due to his hamstring issue. So let’s say about five additional starts. If he averaged around five innings in each of those games, he would have 25 additional innings under his belt. That puts him at just about 150 innings pitched. That seems underwhelming at first, but it is definitely a full season in today’s major-league baseball. While it’s well below the American League leader (Framber Valdez, 201 IP), it puts him in the same conversation as other starting pitcher stars such as Luis Castillo (150 1/3 IP), Zack Wheeler (153 IP), Brandon Woodruff (153 1/3 IP) and Nestor Cortes (158 1/3 IP). All four of those pitchers have made All-Star game appearances in the last two years and are considered true frontline starters despite their lower innings totals. Gray’s ERA and WHIP marks in 2022 weren’t far off from these four either. Of course, this comparison is totally hypothetical. At the end of the day, Gray didn’t pitch those additional 25 innings, and who’s to say he would be just as effective if he had? But the point remains that his performance, when healthy, was commendable. So how can Gray and the Twins make sure that he’s in a position to remain mostly healthy in his contract year? First, a regular offseason is bound to help. Due to the MLB lockout, players weren’t allowed to contact team officials from early December through February last year, and that hurt a lot of pitchers, Gray included. They couldn’t get that necessary communication with the training staff and were essentially on their own for nearly three months. Then, spring training was delayed and shortened, and Gray needed extra time to ramp up his activity. That’s not a winning combination for a veteran pitcher that has a very particular process. This year should be much more normal for Gray and the rest of the pitchers around the league. He has a normal off-season operation, a regular spring training, and not to mention, the further all pitchers get from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season the better. So with more normalcy in his pre-season routine, can his tools carry him to ace status as he enters his age-33 season? To do that, he’ll need to continue to evolve as a pitcher with diminished velocity. His fastball averaged just 92.1 MPH last season, but he was able to rely on heavy spin rates to still use it effectively. His heater averaged 2485 RPM last season, which was the fifth-highest among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched. Other names atop that leaderboard include Joe Musgrove, Julio Urias, and Dylan Cease. If he can pair that heavy fastball with his curveball that batters only hit at a .193 clip with just a .273 slugging percentage, then he should be able to maintain his effectiveness as he ages. He can’t rely on pumping his fastball past his opponents anymore, but he can use it in an effort to get weak contact or to set up his "yacker" later in the at-bat. So yes, Gray falls short of ace status as things currently stand, but he’s not far off from being a comfortable Game 1 starter in a playoff series. At the very least, he has put himself in the same conversation as the frontline starters listed above, each of whom has a star-level reputation. What are your thoughts on what constitutes an "Ace" in today's MLB? Do you agree that Sonny Gray is probably a touch below "Ace," but would you be comfortable with him as a Game 1 starter in a playoff series? Jump in the comments and let us know your thoughts. View full article