Lou Hennessy

While the pandemic-shortened 2020 season consisted of just 60 games, it gave Twins fans a performance that they had been begging for. Finally, a pitcher was able to break through as a true frontline starter, even if it was an abbreviated campaign. 
Kenta Maeda assumed his throne that year as he twirled 67 innings of 2.70 ERA ball across 11 starts. He established new career-bests in strikeout rate (32.3%), walk rate (4.0%), swinging strike rate (17.2%) and WHIP (0.75). That led to a second-place finish in the Cy Young award competition, and vindicated the franchise’s years-long pursuit of a true ace-level pitcher. 
Or so we thought. 
Maeda took an expected step back in 2021. He was still serviceable through July (4.40 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate) but it became clear that his ailment was becoming increasingly more troublesome. He ultimately succumbed to Tommy John surgery in August 2021, and was banished from his kingdom while he recovered. 
Now, he’s returning to the rotation after roughly 17 months of recovery. But what should Twins fans expect from their former king?
Two of the most-popular projection models agree that his per-pitch numbers will closely resemble his pre-injury self from 2021. ZiPS and Steamer both predict he’ll finish the year with an ERA around 4.15, slightly lower strikeout rates at around 22% and a 1.27 WHIP. Their differences however, lie in Maeda’s ability to remain in the starting rotation. 
Steamer thinks he’ll start 24 games and they project him for 150 innings pitched. That raises his predicted wins above replacement to 1.4, which is totally respectable for a starter’s first season after returning from Tommy John surgery.  ZiPS, however, thinks that Maeda will only manage to start 15 games, and will be limited to just 83 innings pitched. This limits their predicted WAR figure for the veteran right-hander to just 0.9 in 2023. 
Upon first glance, it would be sensible that the ZiPS projection is factoring a mid-season role change for Maeda due to an inning limitation. However, they only predict that he’ll make three appearances out of the bullpen, even with the low games started prediction. That essentially means that they think Kenta Maeda will have trouble staying healthy in 2023.
That’s not unheard of for players coming back from an extended absence, and injury limitations are certainly not uncharted territory for this Twins roster. One model thinks Maeda bounces back as a starter, and stays relatively healthy. The other sees him breaking down and only pitching about half as many innings. Time will tell which projection will be more accurate.
Perhaps a look at another arm that recently bounced back from Tommy John surgery can help provide some more reasonable expectations for King Kenta in 2023. Noah Syndergaard had this procedure in March of 2020, just after spring training was halted due to the pandemic. He also had an extended recovery period, as he didn’t return to game action until late-September in 2021, roughly 18 months after his surgery. Even then, he only appeared in two games as a one-inning opener before having another five months of recovery in the off-season. 
Syndergaard returned to full-strength heading into the 2022 season, where he finished the year with a 3.94 ERA across 24 starts between the Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies. He tossed 135 innings last year, and though his strikeout rate slipped considerably (26.4% from 2015-2019, 16.8% in 2022), he still managed to accumulate a respectable 2.2 wins above replacement. Syndergaard was able to be this successful by limiting hitters to soft contact – which has also been a calling card of Maeda throughout his career. 
It should be noted that there are a handful of differences between Syndergaard and Maeda when comparing their respective recoveries. Notably, the former was one of the hardest throwers in the history of the game before his surgery, averaging 98.1 MPH on his heater in that time. Maeda, on the other hand, has never relied on fastball velocity, but rather the quality of his secondary offerings. In his first spring training appearance last week, his fastball did average about 90.3 MPH. That’s an encouraging sign, as it averaged about 91.6 MPH in his brilliant 2020 season. 
Of course, remaining healthy is going to be the defining factor for the 35-year-old this season, and for the rest of his career for that matter. But if he can have similar production to Syndergaard in his first year back in action, the Twins would gladly take that. 
He may not be returning to the throne that he held in 2020, but King Kenta is no longer banished from his kingdom. 
What are your expectations for Maeda in 2023 and beyond? Can he follow Syndergaard’s lead in having a relatively successful season? Let us know what you think in the comments below. 

While the pandemic-shortened 2020 season consisted of just 60 games, it gave Twins fans a performance that they had been begging for. Finally, a pitcher was able to break through as a true frontline starter, even if it was an abbreviated campaign. 
Kenta Maeda assumed his throne that year as he twirled 67 innings of 2.70 ERA ball across 11 starts. He established new career-bests in strikeout rate (32.3%), walk rate (4.0%), swinging strike rate (17.2%) and WHIP (0.75). That led to a second-place finish in the Cy Young award competition, and vindicated the franchise’s years-long pursuit of a true ace-level pitcher. 
Or so we thought. 
Maeda took an expected step back in 2021. He was still serviceable through July (4.40 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate) but it became clear that his ailment was becoming increasingly more troublesome. He ultimately succumbed to Tommy John surgery in August 2021, and was banished from his kingdom while he recovered. 
Now, he’s returning to the rotation after roughly 17 months of recovery. But what should Twins fans expect from their former king?
Two of the most-popular projection models agree that his per-pitch numbers will closely resemble his pre-injury self from 2021. ZiPS and Steamer both predict he’ll finish the year with an ERA around 4.15, slightly lower strikeout rates at around 22% and a 1.27 WHIP. Their differences however, lie in Maeda’s ability to remain in the starting rotation. 
Steamer thinks he’ll start 24 games and they project him for 150 innings pitched. That raises his predicted wins above replacement to 1.4, which is totally respectable for a starter’s first season after returning from Tommy John surgery.  ZiPS, however, thinks that Maeda will only manage to start 15 games, and will be limited to just 83 innings pitched. This limits their predicted WAR figure for the veteran right-hander to just 0.9 in 2023. 
Upon first glance, it would be sensible that the ZiPS projection is factoring a mid-season role change for Maeda due to an inning limitation. However, they only predict that he’ll make three appearances out of the bullpen, even with the low games started prediction. That essentially means that they think Kenta Maeda will have trouble staying healthy in 2023.
That’s not unheard of for players coming back from an extended absence, and injury limitations are certainly not uncharted territory for this Twins roster. One model thinks Maeda bounces back as a starter, and stays relatively healthy. The other sees him breaking down and only pitching about half as many innings. Time will tell which projection will be more accurate.
Perhaps a look at another arm that recently bounced back from Tommy John surgery can help provide some more reasonable expectations for King Kenta in 2023. Noah Syndergaard had this procedure in March of 2020, just after spring training was halted due to the pandemic. He also had an extended recovery period, as he didn’t return to game action until late-September in 2021, roughly 18 months after his surgery. Even then, he only appeared in two games as a one-inning opener before having another five months of recovery in the off-season. 
Syndergaard returned to full-strength heading into the 2022 season, where he finished the year with a 3.94 ERA across 24 starts between the Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies. He tossed 135 innings last year, and though his strikeout rate slipped considerably (26.4% from 2015-2019, 16.8% in 2022), he still managed to accumulate a respectable 2.2 wins above replacement. Syndergaard was able to be this successful by limiting hitters to soft contact – which has also been a calling card of Maeda throughout his career. 
It should be noted that there are a handful of differences between Syndergaard and Maeda when comparing their respective recoveries. Notably, the former was one of the hardest throwers in the history of the game before his surgery, averaging 98.1 MPH on his heater in that time. Maeda, on the other hand, has never relied on fastball velocity, but rather the quality of his secondary offerings. In his first spring training appearance last week, his fastball did average about 90.3 MPH. That’s an encouraging sign, as it averaged about 91.6 MPH in his brilliant 2020 season. 
Of course, remaining healthy is going to be the defining factor for the 35-year-old this season, and for the rest of his career for that matter. But if he can have similar production to Syndergaard in his first year back in action, the Twins would gladly take that. 
He may not be returning to the throne that he held in 2020, but King Kenta is no longer banished from his kingdom. 
What are your expectations for Maeda in 2023 and beyond? Can he follow Syndergaard’s lead in having a relatively successful season? Let us know what you think in the comments below. 

While the pandemic-shortened 2020 season consisted of just 60 games, it gave Twins fans a performance that they had been begging for. Finally, a pitcher was able to break through as a true frontline starter, even if it was an abbreviated campaign. 
Kenta Maeda assumed his throne that year as he twirled 67 innings of 2.70 ERA ball across 11 starts. He established new career-bests in strikeout rate (32.3%), walk rate (4.0%), swinging strike rate (17.2%) and WHIP (0.75). That led to a second-place finish in the Cy Young award competition, and vindicated the franchise’s years-long pursuit of a true ace-level pitcher. 
Or so we thought. 
Maeda took an expected step back in 2021. He was still serviceable through July (4.40 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate) but it became clear that his ailment was becoming increasingly more troublesome. He ultimately succumbed to Tommy John surgery in August 2021, and was banished from his kingdom while he recovered. 
Now, he’s returning to the rotation after roughly 17 months of recovery. But what should Twins fans expect from their former king?
Two of the most-popular projection models agree that his per-pitch numbers will closely resemble his pre-injury self from 2021. ZiPS and Steamer both predict he’ll finish the year with an ERA around 4.15, slightly lower strikeout rates at around 22% and a 1.27 WHIP. Their differences however, lie in Maeda’s ability to remain in the starting rotation. 
Steamer thinks he’ll start 24 games and they project him for 150 innings pitched. That raises his predicted wins above replacement to 1.4, which is totally respectable for a starter’s first season after returning from Tommy John surgery.  ZiPS, however, thinks that Maeda will only manage to start 15 games, and will be limited to just 83 innings pitched. This limits their predicted WAR figure for the veteran right-hander to just 0.9 in 2023. 
Upon first glance, it would be sensible that the ZiPS projection is factoring a mid-season role change for Maeda due to an inning limitation. However, they only predict that he’ll make three appearances out of the bullpen, even with the low games started prediction. That essentially means that they think Kenta Maeda will have trouble staying healthy in 2023.
That’s not unheard of for players coming back from an extended absence, and injury limitations are certainly not uncharted territory for this Twins roster. One model thinks Maeda bounces back as a starter, and stays relatively healthy. The other sees him breaking down and only pitching about half as many innings. Time will tell which projection will be more accurate.
Perhaps a look at another arm that recently bounced back from Tommy John surgery can help provide some more reasonable expectations for King Kenta in 2023. Noah Syndergaard had this procedure in March of 2020, just after spring training was halted due to the pandemic. He also had an extended recovery period, as he didn’t return to game action until late-September in 2021, roughly 18 months after his surgery. Even then, he only appeared in two games as a one-inning opener before having another five months of recovery in the off-season. 
Syndergaard returned to full-strength heading into the 2022 season, where he finished the year with a 3.94 ERA across 24 starts between the Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies. He tossed 135 innings last year, and though his strikeout rate slipped considerably (26.4% from 2015-2019, 16.8% in 2022), he still managed to accumulate a respectable 2.2 wins above replacement. Syndergaard was able to be this successful by limiting hitters to soft contact – which has also been a calling card of Maeda throughout his career. 
It should be noted that there are a handful of differences between Syndergaard and Maeda when comparing their respective recoveries. Notably, the former was one of the hardest throwers in the history of the game before his surgery, averaging 98.1 MPH on his heater in that time. Maeda, on the other hand, has never relied on fastball velocity, but rather the quality of his secondary offerings. In his first spring training appearance last week, his fastball did average about 90.3 MPH. That’s an encouraging sign, as it averaged about 91.6 MPH in his brilliant 2020 season. 
Of course, remaining healthy is going to be the defining factor for the 35-year-old this season, and for the rest of his career for that matter. But if he can have similar production to Syndergaard in his first year back in action, the Twins would gladly take that. 
He may not be returning to the throne that he held in 2020, but King Kenta is no longer banished from his kingdom. 
What are your expectations for Maeda in 2023 and beyond? Can he follow Syndergaard’s lead in having a relatively successful season? Let us know what you think in the comments below. 

While the pandemic-shortened 2020 season consisted of just 60 games, it gave Twins fans a performance that they had been begging for. Finally, a pitcher was able to break through as a true frontline starter, even if it was an abbreviated campaign. 
Kenta Maeda assumed his throne that year as he twirled 67 innings of 2.70 ERA ball across 11 starts. He established new career-bests in strikeout rate (32.3%), walk rate (4.0%), swinging strike rate (17.2%) and WHIP (0.75). That led to a second-place finish in the Cy Young award competition, and vindicated the franchise’s years-long pursuit of a true ace-level pitcher. 
Or so we thought. 
Maeda took an expected step back in 2021. He was still serviceable through July (4.40 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate) but it became clear that his ailment was becoming increasingly more troublesome. He ultimately succumbed to Tommy John surgery in August 2021, and was banished from his kingdom while he recovered. 
Now, he’s returning to the rotation after roughly 17 months of recovery. But what should Twins fans expect from their former king?
Two of the most-popular projection models agree that his per-pitch numbers will closely resemble his pre-injury self from 2021. ZiPS and Steamer both predict he’ll finish the year with an ERA around 4.15, slightly lower strikeout rates at around 22% and a 1.27 WHIP. Their differences however, lie in Maeda’s ability to remain in the starting rotation. 
Steamer thinks he’ll start 24 games and they project him for 150 innings pitched. That raises his predicted wins above replacement to 1.4, which is totally respectable for a starter’s first season after returning from Tommy John surgery.  ZiPS, however, thinks that Maeda will only manage to start 15 games, and will be limited to just 83 innings pitched. This limits their predicted WAR figure for the veteran right-hander to just 0.9 in 2023. 
Upon first glance, it would be sensible that the ZiPS projection is factoring a mid-season role change for Maeda due to an inning limitation. However, they only predict that he’ll make three appearances out of the bullpen, even with the low games started prediction. That essentially means that they think Kenta Maeda will have trouble staying healthy in 2023.
That’s not unheard of for players coming back from an extended absence, and injury limitations are certainly not uncharted territory for this Twins roster. One model thinks Maeda bounces back as a starter, and stays relatively healthy. The other sees him breaking down and only pitching about half as many innings. Time will tell which projection will be more accurate.
Perhaps a look at another arm that recently bounced back from Tommy John surgery can help provide some more reasonable expectations for King Kenta in 2023. Noah Syndergaard had this procedure in March of 2020, just after spring training was halted due to the pandemic. He also had an extended recovery period, as he didn’t return to game action until late-September in 2021, roughly 18 months after his surgery. Even then, he only appeared in two games as a one-inning opener before having another five months of recovery in the off-season. 
Syndergaard returned to full-strength heading into the 2022 season, where he finished the year with a 3.94 ERA across 24 starts between the Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies. He tossed 135 innings last year, and though his strikeout rate slipped considerably (26.4% from 2015-2019, 16.8% in 2022), he still managed to accumulate a respectable 2.2 wins above replacement. Syndergaard was able to be this successful by limiting hitters to soft contact – which has also been a calling card of Maeda throughout his career. 
It should be noted that there are a handful of differences between Syndergaard and Maeda when comparing their respective recoveries. Notably, the former was one of the hardest throwers in the history of the game before his surgery, averaging 98.1 MPH on his heater in that time. Maeda, on the other hand, has never relied on fastball velocity, but rather the quality of his secondary offerings. In his first spring training appearance last week, his fastball did average about 90.3 MPH. That’s an encouraging sign, as it averaged about 91.6 MPH in his brilliant 2020 season. 
Of course, remaining healthy is going to be the defining factor for the 35-year-old this season, and for the rest of his career for that matter. But if he can have similar production to Syndergaard in his first year back in action, the Twins would gladly take that. 
He may not be returning to the throne that he held in 2020, but King Kenta is no longer banished from his kingdom. 
What are your expectations for Maeda in 2023 and beyond? Can he follow Syndergaard’s lead in having a relatively successful season? Let us know what you think in the comments below. 

While the pandemic-shortened 2020 season consisted of just 60 games, it gave Twins fans a performance that they had been begging for. Finally, a pitcher was able to break through as a true frontline starter, even if it was an abbreviated campaign. 
Kenta Maeda assumed his throne that year as he twirled 67 innings of 2.70 ERA ball across 11 starts. He established new career-bests in strikeout rate (32.3%), walk rate (4.0%), swinging strike rate (17.2%) and WHIP (0.75). That led to a second-place finish in the Cy Young award competition, and vindicated the franchise’s years-long pursuit of a true ace-level pitcher. 
Or so we thought. 
Maeda took an expected step back in 2021. He was still serviceable through July (4.40 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate) but it became clear that his ailment was becoming increasingly more troublesome. He ultimately succumbed to Tommy John surgery in August 2021, and was banished from his kingdom while he recovered. 
Now, he’s returning to the rotation after roughly 17 months of recovery. But what should Twins fans expect from their former king?
Two of the most-popular projection models agree that his per-pitch numbers will closely resemble his pre-injury self from 2021. ZiPS and Steamer both predict he’ll finish the year with an ERA around 4.15, slightly lower strikeout rates at around 22% and a 1.27 WHIP. Their differences however, lie in Maeda’s ability to remain in the starting rotation. 
Steamer thinks he’ll start 24 games and they project him for 150 innings pitched. That raises his predicted wins above replacement to 1.4, which is totally respectable for a starter’s first season after returning from Tommy John surgery.  ZiPS, however, thinks that Maeda will only manage to start 15 games, and will be limited to just 83 innings pitched. This limits their predicted WAR figure for the veteran right-hander to just 0.9 in 2023. 
Upon first glance, it would be sensible that the ZiPS projection is factoring a mid-season role change for Maeda due to an inning limitation. However, they only predict that he’ll make three appearances out of the bullpen, even with the low games started prediction. That essentially means that they think Kenta Maeda will have trouble staying healthy in 2023.
That’s not unheard of for players coming back from an extended absence, and injury limitations are certainly not uncharted territory for this Twins roster. One model thinks Maeda bounces back as a starter, and stays relatively healthy. The other sees him breaking down and only pitching about half as many innings. Time will tell which projection will be more accurate.
Perhaps a look at another arm that recently bounced back from Tommy John surgery can help provide some more reasonable expectations for King Kenta in 2023. Noah Syndergaard had this procedure in March of 2020, just after spring training was halted due to the pandemic. He also had an extended recovery period, as he didn’t return to game action until late-September in 2021, roughly 18 months after his surgery. Even then, he only appeared in two games as a one-inning opener before having another five months of recovery in the off-season. 
Syndergaard returned to full-strength heading into the 2022 season, where he finished the year with a 3.94 ERA across 24 starts between the Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies. He tossed 135 innings last year, and though his strikeout rate slipped considerably (26.4% from 2015-2019, 16.8% in 2022), he still managed to accumulate a respectable 2.2 wins above replacement. Syndergaard was able to be this successful by limiting hitters to soft contact – which has also been a calling card of Maeda throughout his career. 
It should be noted that there are a handful of differences between Syndergaard and Maeda when comparing their respective recoveries. Notably, the former was one of the hardest throwers in the history of the game before his surgery, averaging 98.1 MPH on his heater in that time. Maeda, on the other hand, has never relied on fastball velocity, but rather the quality of his secondary offerings. In his first spring training appearance last week, his fastball did average about 90.3 MPH. That’s an encouraging sign, as it averaged about 91.6 MPH in his brilliant 2020 season. 
Of course, remaining healthy is going to be the defining factor for the 35-year-old this season, and for the rest of his career for that matter. But if he can have similar production to Syndergaard in his first year back in action, the Twins would gladly take that. 
He may not be returning to the throne that he held in 2020, but King Kenta is no longer banished from his kingdom. 
What are your expectations for Maeda in 2023 and beyond? Can he follow Syndergaard’s lead in having a relatively successful season? Let us know what you think in the comments below. 

While the pandemic-shortened 2020 season consisted of just 60 games, it gave Twins fans a performance that they had been begging for. Finally, a pitcher was able to break through as a true frontline starter, even if it was an abbreviated campaign. 
Kenta Maeda assumed his throne that year as he twirled 67 innings of 2.70 ERA ball across 11 starts. He established new career-bests in strikeout rate (32.3%), walk rate (4.0%), swinging strike rate (17.2%) and WHIP (0.75). That led to a second-place finish in the Cy Young award competition, and vindicated the franchise’s years-long pursuit of a true ace-level pitcher. 
Or so we thought. 
Maeda took an expected step back in 2021. He was still serviceable through July (4.40 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate) but it became clear that his ailment was becoming increasingly more troublesome. He ultimately succumbed to Tommy John surgery in August 2021, and was banished from his kingdom while he recovered. 
Now, he’s returning to the rotation after roughly 17 months of recovery. But what should Twins fans expect from their former king?
Two of the most-popular projection models agree that his per-pitch numbers will closely resemble his pre-injury self from 2021. ZiPS and Steamer both predict he’ll finish the year with an ERA around 4.15, slightly lower strikeout rates at around 22% and a 1.27 WHIP. Their differences however, lie in Maeda’s ability to remain in the starting rotation. 
Steamer thinks he’ll start 24 games and they project him for 150 innings pitched. That raises his predicted wins above replacement to 1.4, which is totally respectable for a starter’s first season after returning from Tommy John surgery.  ZiPS, however, thinks that Maeda will only manage to start 15 games, and will be limited to just 83 innings pitched. This limits their predicted WAR figure for the veteran right-hander to just 0.9 in 2023. 
Upon first glance, it would be sensible that the ZiPS projection is factoring a mid-season role change for Maeda due to an inning limitation. However, they only predict that he’ll make three appearances out of the bullpen, even with the low games started prediction. That essentially means that they think Kenta Maeda will have trouble staying healthy in 2023.
That’s not unheard of for players coming back from an extended absence, and injury limitations are certainly not uncharted territory for this Twins roster. One model thinks Maeda bounces back as a starter, and stays relatively healthy. The other sees him breaking down and only pitching about half as many innings. Time will tell which projection will be more accurate.
Perhaps a look at another arm that recently bounced back from Tommy John surgery can help provide some more reasonable expectations for King Kenta in 2023. Noah Syndergaard had this procedure in March of 2020, just after spring training was halted due to the pandemic. He also had an extended recovery period, as he didn’t return to game action until late-September in 2021, roughly 18 months after his surgery. Even then, he only appeared in two games as a one-inning opener before having another five months of recovery in the off-season. 
Syndergaard returned to full-strength heading into the 2022 season, where he finished the year with a 3.94 ERA across 24 starts between the Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies. He tossed 135 innings last year, and though his strikeout rate slipped considerably (26.4% from 2015-2019, 16.8% in 2022), he still managed to accumulate a respectable 2.2 wins above replacement. Syndergaard was able to be this successful by limiting hitters to soft contact – which has also been a calling card of Maeda throughout his career. 
It should be noted that there are a handful of differences between Syndergaard and Maeda when comparing their respective recoveries. Notably, the former was one of the hardest throwers in the history of the game before his surgery, averaging 98.1 MPH on his heater in that time. Maeda, on the other hand, has never relied on fastball velocity, but rather the quality of his secondary offerings. In his first spring training appearance last week, his fastball did average about 90.3 MPH. That’s an encouraging sign, as it averaged about 91.6 MPH in his brilliant 2020 season. 
Of course, remaining healthy is going to be the defining factor for the 35-year-old this season, and for the rest of his career for that matter. But if he can have similar production to Syndergaard in his first year back in action, the Twins would gladly take that. 
He may not be returning to the throne that he held in 2020, but King Kenta is no longer banished from his kingdom. 
What are your expectations for Maeda in 2023 and beyond? Can he follow Syndergaard’s lead in having a relatively successful season? Let us know what you think in the comments below. 

While the pandemic-shortened 2020 season consisted of just 60 games, it gave Twins fans a performance that they had been begging for. Finally, a pitcher was able to break through as a true frontline starter, even if it was an abbreviated campaign. 
Kenta Maeda assumed his throne that year as he twirled 67 innings of 2.70 ERA ball across 11 starts. He established new career-bests in strikeout rate (32.3%), walk rate (4.0%), swinging strike rate (17.2%) and WHIP (0.75). That led to a second-place finish in the Cy Young award competition, and vindicated the franchise’s years-long pursuit of a true ace-level pitcher. 
Or so we thought. 
Maeda took an expected step back in 2021. He was still serviceable through July (4.40 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate) but it became clear that his ailment was becoming increasingly more troublesome. He ultimately succumbed to Tommy John surgery in August 2021, and was banished from his kingdom while he recovered. 
Now, he’s returning to the rotation after roughly 17 months of recovery. But what should Twins fans expect from their former king?
Two of the most-popular projection models agree that his per-pitch numbers will closely resemble his pre-injury self from 2021. ZiPS and Steamer both predict he’ll finish the year with an ERA around 4.15, slightly lower strikeout rates at around 22% and a 1.27 WHIP. Their differences however, lie in Maeda’s ability to remain in the starting rotation. 
Steamer thinks he’ll start 24 games and they project him for 150 innings pitched. That raises his predicted wins above replacement to 1.4, which is totally respectable for a starter’s first season after returning from Tommy John surgery.  ZiPS, however, thinks that Maeda will only manage to start 15 games, and will be limited to just 83 innings pitched. This limits their predicted WAR figure for the veteran right-hander to just 0.9 in 2023. 
Upon first glance, it would be sensible that the ZiPS projection is factoring a mid-season role change for Maeda due to an inning limitation. However, they only predict that he’ll make three appearances out of the bullpen, even with the low games started prediction. That essentially means that they think Kenta Maeda will have trouble staying healthy in 2023.
That’s not unheard of for players coming back from an extended absence, and injury limitations are certainly not uncharted territory for this Twins roster. One model thinks Maeda bounces back as a starter, and stays relatively healthy. The other sees him breaking down and only pitching about half as many innings. Time will tell which projection will be more accurate.
Perhaps a look at another arm that recently bounced back from Tommy John surgery can help provide some more reasonable expectations for King Kenta in 2023. Noah Syndergaard had this procedure in March of 2020, just after spring training was halted due to the pandemic. He also had an extended recovery period, as he didn’t return to game action until late-September in 2021, roughly 18 months after his surgery. Even then, he only appeared in two games as a one-inning opener before having another five months of recovery in the off-season. 
Syndergaard returned to full-strength heading into the 2022 season, where he finished the year with a 3.94 ERA across 24 starts between the Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies. He tossed 135 innings last year, and though his strikeout rate slipped considerably (26.4% from 2015-2019, 16.8% in 2022), he still managed to accumulate a respectable 2.2 wins above replacement. Syndergaard was able to be this successful by limiting hitters to soft contact – which has also been a calling card of Maeda throughout his career. 
It should be noted that there are a handful of differences between Syndergaard and Maeda when comparing their respective recoveries. Notably, the former was one of the hardest throwers in the history of the game before his surgery, averaging 98.1 MPH on his heater in that time. Maeda, on the other hand, has never relied on fastball velocity, but rather the quality of his secondary offerings. In his first spring training appearance last week, his fastball did average about 90.3 MPH. That’s an encouraging sign, as it averaged about 91.6 MPH in his brilliant 2020 season. 
Of course, remaining healthy is going to be the defining factor for the 35-year-old this season, and for the rest of his career for that matter. But if he can have similar production to Syndergaard in his first year back in action, the Twins would gladly take that. 
He may not be returning to the throne that he held in 2020, but King Kenta is no longer banished from his kingdom. 
What are your expectations for Maeda in 2023 and beyond? Can he follow Syndergaard’s lead in having a relatively successful season? Let us know what you think in the comments below. 

While the pandemic-shortened 2020 season consisted of just 60 games, it gave Twins fans a performance that they had been begging for. Finally, a pitcher was able to break through as a true frontline starter, even if it was an abbreviated campaign. 
Kenta Maeda assumed his throne that year as he twirled 67 innings of 2.70 ERA ball across 11 starts. He established new career-bests in strikeout rate (32.3%), walk rate (4.0%), swinging strike rate (17.2%) and WHIP (0.75). That led to a second-place finish in the Cy Young award competition, and vindicated the franchise’s years-long pursuit of a true ace-level pitcher. 
Or so we thought. 
Maeda took an expected step back in 2021. He was still serviceable through July (4.40 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate) but it became clear that his ailment was becoming increasingly more troublesome. He ultimately succumbed to Tommy John surgery in August 2021, and was banished from his kingdom while he recovered. 
Now, he’s returning to the rotation after roughly 17 months of recovery. But what should Twins fans expect from their former king?
Two of the most-popular projection models agree that his per-pitch numbers will closely resemble his pre-injury self from 2021. ZiPS and Steamer both predict he’ll finish the year with an ERA around 4.15, slightly lower strikeout rates at around 22% and a 1.27 WHIP. Their differences however, lie in Maeda’s ability to remain in the starting rotation. 
Steamer thinks he’ll start 24 games and they project him for 150 innings pitched. That raises his predicted wins above replacement to 1.4, which is totally respectable for a starter’s first season after returning from Tommy John surgery.  ZiPS, however, thinks that Maeda will only manage to start 15 games, and will be limited to just 83 innings pitched. This limits their predicted WAR figure for the veteran right-hander to just 0.9 in 2023. 
Upon first glance, it would be sensible that the ZiPS projection is factoring a mid-season role change for Maeda due to an inning limitation. However, they only predict that he’ll make three appearances out of the bullpen, even with the low games started prediction. That essentially means that they think Kenta Maeda will have trouble staying healthy in 2023.
That’s not unheard of for players coming back from an extended absence, and injury limitations are certainly not uncharted territory for this Twins roster. One model thinks Maeda bounces back as a starter, and stays relatively healthy. The other sees him breaking down and only pitching about half as many innings. Time will tell which projection will be more accurate.
Perhaps a look at another arm that recently bounced back from Tommy John surgery can help provide some more reasonable expectations for King Kenta in 2023. Noah Syndergaard had this procedure in March of 2020, just after spring training was halted due to the pandemic. He also had an extended recovery period, as he didn’t return to game action until late-September in 2021, roughly 18 months after his surgery. Even then, he only appeared in two games as a one-inning opener before having another five months of recovery in the off-season. 
Syndergaard returned to full-strength heading into the 2022 season, where he finished the year with a 3.94 ERA across 24 starts between the Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies. He tossed 135 innings last year, and though his strikeout rate slipped considerably (26.4% from 2015-2019, 16.8% in 2022), he still managed to accumulate a respectable 2.2 wins above replacement. Syndergaard was able to be this successful by limiting hitters to soft contact – which has also been a calling card of Maeda throughout his career. 
It should be noted that there are a handful of differences between Syndergaard and Maeda when comparing their respective recoveries. Notably, the former was one of the hardest throwers in the history of the game before his surgery, averaging 98.1 MPH on his heater in that time. Maeda, on the other hand, has never relied on fastball velocity, but rather the quality of his secondary offerings. In his first spring training appearance last week, his fastball did average about 90.3 MPH. That’s an encouraging sign, as it averaged about 91.6 MPH in his brilliant 2020 season. 
Of course, remaining healthy is going to be the defining factor for the 35-year-old this season, and for the rest of his career for that matter. But if he can have similar production to Syndergaard in his first year back in action, the Twins would gladly take that. 
He may not be returning to the throne that he held in 2020, but King Kenta is no longer banished from his kingdom. 
What are your expectations for Maeda in 2023 and beyond? Can he follow Syndergaard’s lead in having a relatively successful season? Let us know what you think in the comments below. 

The Twins find themselves in a heated hand of five-card draw. They like most of the cards they’re holding in the bullpen, but they could take a chance on trading in their last piece for a fresh one in the hopes that it complements their hand better. 
There are plenty of face cards in this hand, including relief ace Jhoan Duran, veteran king Caleb Thielbar, and a young jack, or should I say Jax, rather. Other members in their relief corps such as Jorge Lopez or Jorge Alcala could find themselves in that high-value card class, but the jury is still out on if they can be counted on to be healthy and/or effective. 
Still, the club could be looking to add one last card in the hopes of landing a royal flush. But is it really worth it to go for a wild card, or should the Twins stick with the hand they were dealt?
Imperfect analogies aside, the club has been tied by Darren Wolfson to veteran southpaw Brad Hand, who is coming off of a relatively successful, if uninspiring, 2022 season. Right now, the last member of the Twins’ bullpen is projected to be righty Trevor Megill, who showcased a blazing fastball in the last few months of the season but left much to be desired overall. 
 
Adding Hand to the mix carries a possibility that he continues to outshine his peripherals, as has been the case since he transitioned to a full-time reliever in 2016. Even just last season, he had a fantastic 2.80 ERA despite having a 4.40 xERA. The expected figure is due in large part to his unspectacular 1.65 K/BB rate, an unexciting 7.3% swinging strike rate, and diminishing values on his fastball as the season wore on. But aside from the discouraging numbers under the hood, he managed to throw 45 innings of mostly unproblematic baseball in 2022. So would the Twins be wise to bring him on board with an inexpensive one-year deal? 
Let’s start with the upside of such a deal. As the last few years have shown us, you can never have too many options in a relief corps. Signing Hand likely moves Megill down to Triple-A for the time being, but the Twins wouldn’t be required to drop anyone from their 40-man roster. Both Chris Paddack and Royce Lewis are now eligible to be moved to the 60-day injured list, which would remove them from the 40-man roster until reinstatement. 
 
If Hand produces as expected, he’d be the third left-handed pitcher in the projected bullpen depth chart. Thielbar is a lock as a high-leverage option, and Jovani Moran is bound to get more time after impressing in 41 MLB innings last year. Sure, Moran has shown more success against right-handed batters thanks to his big changeup, but he’s had success against fellow lefties, as well (12 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 vs. LHH). So overall, it's not too much of a gamble just to have Hand aboard.
The downside of such a move isn’t that someone like Megill misses MLB opportunities. There are bound to be multiple injuries throughout the season and surely the big-league club will have to tap into the depth stashed in St. Paul. The downside comes from the Twins’ recent track record of giving established MLB veterans too long of a leash when their performance underwhelms. From J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker, to Tyler Duffey and Joe Smith, sometimes it feels as if the decision-makers are more concerned with hurting their reputation as a veteran-friendly organization rather than the results on the field. 
Granted, sometimes that patience pays off. In 2021, Alex Colome had a brutal 8.31 ERA in April before turning things around (3.51 ERA from May 1st through the end of the season). But in that first month, the club was unable to remove him from high-leverage situations, whether due to a lack of MLB-quality replacements or an excess of confidence in Colome’s projected regression to the mean. That lack of action regarding the veteran (among other things) essentially derailed their hopes of contention by May. 
After two consecutive losing seasons, the Twins can’t afford to have that same mindset with someone like Hand, especially given the fact that he would likely be their sole addition to the bullpen.
Their efforts might be better suited to give their current cards more playing time and reevaluate their needs down the line. Maybe Kenta Maeda eventually transitions to the bullpen as he approaches an inning limit in his first season post-Tommy John surgery. Perhaps someone like Megill or Ronny Henriquez emerges as a relief weapon. Maybe one of their back-end starters such as Josh Winder or Bailey Ober gets a boost from moving to a relief role. 
The team is bound to have a handful of options in 2023, and they need to put their chips behind those who will find the most success rather than trying to squeeze out as much value as they can from an aging veteran. 
But what do you think? Are the Twins better off sticking with the hand that they were dealt, or should they try for the Hand that's still available on the free agent market? Let us know what you think in the comments below. 

The Twins find themselves in a heated hand of five-card draw. They like most of the cards they’re holding in the bullpen, but they could take a chance on trading in their last piece for a fresh one in the hopes that it complements their hand better. 
There are plenty of face cards in this hand, including relief ace Jhoan Duran, veteran king Caleb Thielbar, and a young jack, or should I say Jax, rather. Other members in their relief corps such as Jorge Lopez or Jorge Alcala could find themselves in that high-value card class, but the jury is still out on if they can be counted on to be healthy and/or effective. 
Still, the club could be looking to add one last card in the hopes of landing a royal flush. But is it really worth it to go for a wild card, or should the Twins stick with the hand they were dealt?
Imperfect analogies aside, the club has been tied by Darren Wolfson to veteran southpaw Brad Hand, who is coming off of a relatively successful, if uninspiring, 2022 season. Right now, the last member of the Twins’ bullpen is projected to be righty Trevor Megill, who showcased a blazing fastball in the last few months of the season but left much to be desired overall. 
 
Adding Hand to the mix carries a possibility that he continues to outshine his peripherals, as has been the case since he transitioned to a full-time reliever in 2016. Even just last season, he had a fantastic 2.80 ERA despite having a 4.40 xERA. The expected figure is due in large part to his unspectacular 1.65 K/BB rate, an unexciting 7.3% swinging strike rate, and diminishing values on his fastball as the season wore on. But aside from the discouraging numbers under the hood, he managed to throw 45 innings of mostly unproblematic baseball in 2022. So would the Twins be wise to bring him on board with an inexpensive one-year deal? 
Let’s start with the upside of such a deal. As the last few years have shown us, you can never have too many options in a relief corps. Signing Hand likely moves Megill down to Triple-A for the time being, but the Twins wouldn’t be required to drop anyone from their 40-man roster. Both Chris Paddack and Royce Lewis are now eligible to be moved to the 60-day injured list, which would remove them from the 40-man roster until reinstatement. 
 
If Hand produces as expected, he’d be the third left-handed pitcher in the projected bullpen depth chart. Thielbar is a lock as a high-leverage option, and Jovani Moran is bound to get more time after impressing in 41 MLB innings last year. Sure, Moran has shown more success against right-handed batters thanks to his big changeup, but he’s had success against fellow lefties, as well (12 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 vs. LHH). So overall, it's not too much of a gamble just to have Hand aboard.
The downside of such a move isn’t that someone like Megill misses MLB opportunities. There are bound to be multiple injuries throughout the season and surely the big-league club will have to tap into the depth stashed in St. Paul. The downside comes from the Twins’ recent track record of giving established MLB veterans too long of a leash when their performance underwhelms. From J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker, to Tyler Duffey and Joe Smith, sometimes it feels as if the decision-makers are more concerned with hurting their reputation as a veteran-friendly organization rather than the results on the field. 
Granted, sometimes that patience pays off. In 2021, Alex Colome had a brutal 8.31 ERA in April before turning things around (3.51 ERA from May 1st through the end of the season). But in that first month, the club was unable to remove him from high-leverage situations, whether due to a lack of MLB-quality replacements or an excess of confidence in Colome’s projected regression to the mean. That lack of action regarding the veteran (among other things) essentially derailed their hopes of contention by May. 
After two consecutive losing seasons, the Twins can’t afford to have that same mindset with someone like Hand, especially given the fact that he would likely be their sole addition to the bullpen.
Their efforts might be better suited to give their current cards more playing time and reevaluate their needs down the line. Maybe Kenta Maeda eventually transitions to the bullpen as he approaches an inning limit in his first season post-Tommy John surgery. Perhaps someone like Megill or Ronny Henriquez emerges as a relief weapon. Maybe one of their back-end starters such as Josh Winder or Bailey Ober gets a boost from moving to a relief role. 
The team is bound to have a handful of options in 2023, and they need to put their chips behind those who will find the most success rather than trying to squeeze out as much value as they can from an aging veteran. 
But what do you think? Are the Twins better off sticking with the hand that they were dealt, or should they try for the Hand that's still available on the free agent market? Let us know what you think in the comments below. 

The Twins find themselves in a heated hand of five-card draw. They like most of the cards they’re holding in the bullpen, but they could take a chance on trading in their last piece for a fresh one in the hopes that it complements their hand better. 
There are plenty of face cards in this hand, including relief ace Jhoan Duran, veteran king Caleb Thielbar, and a young jack, or should I say Jax, rather. Other members in their relief corps such as Jorge Lopez or Jorge Alcala could find themselves in that high-value card class, but the jury is still out on if they can be counted on to be healthy and/or effective. 
Still, the club could be looking to add one last card in the hopes of landing a royal flush. But is it really worth it to go for a wild card, or should the Twins stick with the hand they were dealt?
Imperfect analogies aside, the club has been tied by Darren Wolfson to veteran southpaw Brad Hand, who is coming off of a relatively successful, if uninspiring, 2022 season. Right now, the last member of the Twins’ bullpen is projected to be righty Trevor Megill, who showcased a blazing fastball in the last few months of the season but left much to be desired overall. 
 
Adding Hand to the mix carries a possibility that he continues to outshine his peripherals, as has been the case since he transitioned to a full-time reliever in 2016. Even just last season, he had a fantastic 2.80 ERA despite having a 4.40 xERA. The expected figure is due in large part to his unspectacular 1.65 K/BB rate, an unexciting 7.3% swinging strike rate, and diminishing values on his fastball as the season wore on. But aside from the discouraging numbers under the hood, he managed to throw 45 innings of mostly unproblematic baseball in 2022. So would the Twins be wise to bring him on board with an inexpensive one-year deal? 
Let’s start with the upside of such a deal. As the last few years have shown us, you can never have too many options in a relief corps. Signing Hand likely moves Megill down to Triple-A for the time being, but the Twins wouldn’t be required to drop anyone from their 40-man roster. Both Chris Paddack and Royce Lewis are now eligible to be moved to the 60-day injured list, which would remove them from the 40-man roster until reinstatement. 
 
If Hand produces as expected, he’d be the third left-handed pitcher in the projected bullpen depth chart. Thielbar is a lock as a high-leverage option, and Jovani Moran is bound to get more time after impressing in 41 MLB innings last year. Sure, Moran has shown more success against right-handed batters thanks to his big changeup, but he’s had success against fellow lefties, as well (12 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 vs. LHH). So overall, it's not too much of a gamble just to have Hand aboard.
The downside of such a move isn’t that someone like Megill misses MLB opportunities. There are bound to be multiple injuries throughout the season and surely the big-league club will have to tap into the depth stashed in St. Paul. The downside comes from the Twins’ recent track record of giving established MLB veterans too long of a leash when their performance underwhelms. From J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker, to Tyler Duffey and Joe Smith, sometimes it feels as if the decision-makers are more concerned with hurting their reputation as a veteran-friendly organization rather than the results on the field. 
Granted, sometimes that patience pays off. In 2021, Alex Colome had a brutal 8.31 ERA in April before turning things around (3.51 ERA from May 1st through the end of the season). But in that first month, the club was unable to remove him from high-leverage situations, whether due to a lack of MLB-quality replacements or an excess of confidence in Colome’s projected regression to the mean. That lack of action regarding the veteran (among other things) essentially derailed their hopes of contention by May. 
After two consecutive losing seasons, the Twins can’t afford to have that same mindset with someone like Hand, especially given the fact that he would likely be their sole addition to the bullpen.
Their efforts might be better suited to give their current cards more playing time and reevaluate their needs down the line. Maybe Kenta Maeda eventually transitions to the bullpen as he approaches an inning limit in his first season post-Tommy John surgery. Perhaps someone like Megill or Ronny Henriquez emerges as a relief weapon. Maybe one of their back-end starters such as Josh Winder or Bailey Ober gets a boost from moving to a relief role. 
The team is bound to have a handful of options in 2023, and they need to put their chips behind those who will find the most success rather than trying to squeeze out as much value as they can from an aging veteran. 
But what do you think? Are the Twins better off sticking with the hand that they were dealt, or should they try for the Hand that's still available on the free agent market? Let us know what you think in the comments below. 

The Twins find themselves in a heated hand of five-card draw. They like most of the cards they’re holding in the bullpen, but they could take a chance on trading in their last piece for a fresh one in the hopes that it complements their hand better. 
There are plenty of face cards in this hand, including relief ace Jhoan Duran, veteran king Caleb Thielbar, and a young jack, or should I say Jax, rather. Other members in their relief corps such as Jorge Lopez or Jorge Alcala could find themselves in that high-value card class, but the jury is still out on if they can be counted on to be healthy and/or effective. 
Still, the club could be looking to add one last card in the hopes of landing a royal flush. But is it really worth it to go for a wild card, or should the Twins stick with the hand they were dealt?
Imperfect analogies aside, the club has been tied by Darren Wolfson to veteran southpaw Brad Hand, who is coming off of a relatively successful, if uninspiring, 2022 season. Right now, the last member of the Twins’ bullpen is projected to be righty Trevor Megill, who showcased a blazing fastball in the last few months of the season but left much to be desired overall. 
 
Adding Hand to the mix carries a possibility that he continues to outshine his peripherals, as has been the case since he transitioned to a full-time reliever in 2016. Even just last season, he had a fantastic 2.80 ERA despite having a 4.40 xERA. The expected figure is due in large part to his unspectacular 1.65 K/BB rate, an unexciting 7.3% swinging strike rate, and diminishing values on his fastball as the season wore on. But aside from the discouraging numbers under the hood, he managed to throw 45 innings of mostly unproblematic baseball in 2022. So would the Twins be wise to bring him on board with an inexpensive one-year deal? 
Let’s start with the upside of such a deal. As the last few years have shown us, you can never have too many options in a relief corps. Signing Hand likely moves Megill down to Triple-A for the time being, but the Twins wouldn’t be required to drop anyone from their 40-man roster. Both Chris Paddack and Royce Lewis are now eligible to be moved to the 60-day injured list, which would remove them from the 40-man roster until reinstatement. 
 
If Hand produces as expected, he’d be the third left-handed pitcher in the projected bullpen depth chart. Thielbar is a lock as a high-leverage option, and Jovani Moran is bound to get more time after impressing in 41 MLB innings last year. Sure, Moran has shown more success against right-handed batters thanks to his big changeup, but he’s had success against fellow lefties, as well (12 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 vs. LHH). So overall, it's not too much of a gamble just to have Hand aboard.
The downside of such a move isn’t that someone like Megill misses MLB opportunities. There are bound to be multiple injuries throughout the season and surely the big-league club will have to tap into the depth stashed in St. Paul. The downside comes from the Twins’ recent track record of giving established MLB veterans too long of a leash when their performance underwhelms. From J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker, to Tyler Duffey and Joe Smith, sometimes it feels as if the decision-makers are more concerned with hurting their reputation as a veteran-friendly organization rather than the results on the field. 
Granted, sometimes that patience pays off. In 2021, Alex Colome had a brutal 8.31 ERA in April before turning things around (3.51 ERA from May 1st through the end of the season). But in that first month, the club was unable to remove him from high-leverage situations, whether due to a lack of MLB-quality replacements or an excess of confidence in Colome’s projected regression to the mean. That lack of action regarding the veteran (among other things) essentially derailed their hopes of contention by May. 
After two consecutive losing seasons, the Twins can’t afford to have that same mindset with someone like Hand, especially given the fact that he would likely be their sole addition to the bullpen.
Their efforts might be better suited to give their current cards more playing time and reevaluate their needs down the line. Maybe Kenta Maeda eventually transitions to the bullpen as he approaches an inning limit in his first season post-Tommy John surgery. Perhaps someone like Megill or Ronny Henriquez emerges as a relief weapon. Maybe one of their back-end starters such as Josh Winder or Bailey Ober gets a boost from moving to a relief role. 
The team is bound to have a handful of options in 2023, and they need to put their chips behind those who will find the most success rather than trying to squeeze out as much value as they can from an aging veteran. 
But what do you think? Are the Twins better off sticking with the hand that they were dealt, or should they try for the Hand that's still available on the free agent market? Let us know what you think in the comments below. 

The Minnesota Twins have clearly emphasized building depth both on the Major League bench and in the minor leagues. However, there is potentially one position at which the Twins could be thin heading into the 2023 season. After trading Gio Urshela and Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda and Kyle Farmer are the only two players on the 40-man roster with significant Big League third-base experience. (Joey Gallo doesn't count.)
Miranda figures to play every day at third, but who will man the position on off days or if an IL stint is in his future? Kyle Farmer has the defensive capability to play the hot corner, but offensively the Twins would like him to see as few at-bats against right-handed pitching as possible. 
Fortunately, there might be one more option for the Twins. Nick Gordon is no stranger to being thrust into unfamiliar positions so far in his career. Coming up as a middle infielder, he was thrown in the outfield as a necessity in 2021 and 2022. The results have been mixed, but overall I think he's been passable. Could he be a left-handed hitting platoon option at third base for Minnesota, as Adam Friedman suggested? 
Using defensive metrics to evaluate Gordon's infield defense is tough because he hasn't played much infield in his big league career, but let's try anyways. He has played only 151 innings at shortstop and 368 innings at second base, compared to over 950 innings in the outfield. DRS (defensive runs saved) has been quite unfavorable for Gordon. For his career, he has netted -2 DRS at second base. At shortstop, he has totaled -3 DRS. OAA (outs above average) sees Gordon as an average defensive infielder registering 0 OAA at second base and shortstop. Given the small sample, these numbers will need to be taken with a grain of salt. 
As a prospect rising through the ranks, scouts were always doubtful about Gordon's ability to stick at shortstop due to his lack of arm strength; that might be seen as a potential problem at third base. Using Statcast's arm strength metrics, we can see how Gordon's arm compares to the rest of the league in the infield, particularly at third base. To measure arm strength, the velocity of the top 5% of throws is taken from a player to find their "average" arm strength. We will only be using Gordon's throws from second base, as throws from the outfield are entirely different than ones in the infield. At second base, Nick Gordon's arm strength is measured at 83.5 mph. 
At second base, 83.5 mph ranks 8th in all of baseball among players that made 100 throws at second base. At shortstop, 83.5 would have ranked 31st out of 60 players that made at least 100 throws. But to answer the question, would his arm play at third base? At third base, 83.5 mph would have been the 28th highest average velocity among 59 third baseman. He is right in the middle of the pack, but it should be noted that most players above Gordon are everyday third baseman, and most below him are utility men, like Gordon is. 
Statcast's arm strength measurements aren't perfect. Many variables go into the type of throws that are made at different positions along the infield that are hard to quantify in one statistic. However, it does give us an idea that if Nick Gordon needs to fill in at third base to give Jose Miranda a day off or even play in a platoon role for a short-term injury, this is a solution the Twins could pursue.
Given his athleticism and metrics at second base and shortstop, range should be good enough for Gordon at third. While the arm might not be ideal, it certainly looks passable enough for Nick Gordon to expand his versatility and help the Twins at third base this season and in the future. 
 

Pitchers and catchers officially report to spring training next week, and all eyes are going to be on a group of arms that make up the five-man starting rotation. Sure, a lot can happen throughout the course of the spring, but the club pretty much has five names penciled in for their starting corps. If healthy, veterans Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, and Pablo Lopez join a rotation that will feature last year’s Opening Day starter, Joe Ryan. 
But the man that rounds out that group is the one that most closely resembles a frontline starter.
Sonny Gray was limited to just 120 innings pitched last year, but he mostly showed the peripheral stats that offer ace-level upside when he was able to take the field. That resulted in strong surface-level marks, including a 3.08 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. His 2.7 BB/9 was the strongest mark in his last six seasons, and while his 8.8 K/9 was his lowest rate since 2018, he was able to get outs by allowing fewer barreled balls (78th percentile).
Unfortunately, a nagging hamstring issue put Gray on the shelf at various points during the 2022 campaign, including the final three weeks of the season. If these injury woes didn’t hold him back, how close would he be to a true ace?
Let’s say he remained healthy enough to keep going at the same pace in the final three weeks last year. That probably equates to about four additional appearances, not to mention his final start on September 19th when he had to leave in the third inning due to his hamstring issue. So let’s say about five additional starts. If he averaged around five innings in each of those games, he would have 25 additional innings under his belt. That puts him at just about 150 innings pitched.
That seems underwhelming at first, but it is definitely a full season in today’s major-league baseball. While it’s well below the American League leader (Framber Valdez, 201 IP), it puts him in the same conversation as other starting pitcher stars such as Luis Castillo (150 1/3 IP), Zack Wheeler (153 IP), Brandon Woodruff (153 1/3 IP) and Nestor Cortes (158 1/3 IP). All four of those pitchers have made All-Star game appearances in the last two years and are considered true frontline starters despite their lower innings totals. Gray’s ERA and WHIP marks in 2022 weren’t far off from these four either. 
Of course, this comparison is totally hypothetical. At the end of the day, Gray didn’t pitch those additional 25 innings, and who’s to say he would be just as effective if he had? But the point remains that his performance, when healthy, was commendable. So how can Gray and the Twins make sure that he’s in a position to remain mostly healthy in his contract year?
First, a regular offseason is bound to help. Due to the MLB lockout, players weren’t allowed to contact team officials from early December through February last year, and that hurt a lot of pitchers, Gray included. They couldn’t get that necessary communication with the training staff and were essentially on their own for nearly three months. Then, spring training was delayed and shortened, and Gray needed extra time to ramp up his activity. That’s not a winning combination for a veteran pitcher that has a very particular process. 
This year should be much more normal for Gray and the rest of the pitchers around the league. He has a normal off-season operation, a regular spring training, and not to mention, the further all pitchers get from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season the better. 
So with more normalcy in his pre-season routine, can his tools carry him to ace status as he enters his age-33 season? To do that, he’ll need to continue to evolve as a pitcher with diminished velocity. His fastball averaged just 92.1 MPH last season, but he was able to rely on heavy spin rates to still use it effectively. His heater averaged 2485 RPM last season, which was the fifth-highest among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched. Other names atop that leaderboard include Joe Musgrove, Julio Urias, and Dylan Cease. 
If he can pair that heavy fastball with his curveball that batters only hit at a .193 clip with just a .273 slugging percentage, then he should be able to maintain his effectiveness as he ages. He can’t rely on pumping his fastball past his opponents anymore, but he can use it in an effort to get weak contact or to set up his "yacker" later in the at-bat.    So yes, Gray falls short of ace status as things currently stand, but he’s not far off from being a comfortable Game 1 starter in a playoff series. At the very least, he has put himself in the same conversation as the frontline starters listed above, each of whom has a star-level reputation.    What are your thoughts on what constitutes an "Ace" in today's MLB? Do you agree that Sonny Gray is probably a touch below "Ace," but would you be comfortable with him as a Game 1 starter in a playoff series? Jump in the comments and let us know your thoughts.  

Pitchers and catchers officially report to spring training next week, and all eyes are going to be on a group of arms that make up the five-man starting rotation. Sure, a lot can happen throughout the course of the spring, but the club pretty much has five names penciled in for their starting corps. If healthy, veterans Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, and Pablo Lopez join a rotation that will feature last year’s Opening Day starter, Joe Ryan. 
But the man that rounds out that group is the one that most closely resembles a frontline starter.
Sonny Gray was limited to just 120 innings pitched last year, but he mostly showed the peripheral stats that offer ace-level upside when he was able to take the field. That resulted in strong surface-level marks, including a 3.08 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. His 2.7 BB/9 was the strongest mark in his last six seasons, and while his 8.8 K/9 was his lowest rate since 2018, he was able to get outs by allowing fewer barreled balls (78th percentile).
Unfortunately, a nagging hamstring issue put Gray on the shelf at various points during the 2022 campaign, including the final three weeks of the season. If these injury woes didn’t hold him back, how close would he be to a true ace?
Let’s say he remained healthy enough to keep going at the same pace in the final three weeks last year. That probably equates to about four additional appearances, not to mention his final start on September 19th when he had to leave in the third inning due to his hamstring issue. So let’s say about five additional starts. If he averaged around five innings in each of those games, he would have 25 additional innings under his belt. That puts him at just about 150 innings pitched.
That seems underwhelming at first, but it is definitely a full season in today’s major-league baseball. While it’s well below the American League leader (Framber Valdez, 201 IP), it puts him in the same conversation as other starting pitcher stars such as Luis Castillo (150 1/3 IP), Zack Wheeler (153 IP), Brandon Woodruff (153 1/3 IP) and Nestor Cortes (158 1/3 IP). All four of those pitchers have made All-Star game appearances in the last two years and are considered true frontline starters despite their lower innings totals. Gray’s ERA and WHIP marks in 2022 weren’t far off from these four either. 
Of course, this comparison is totally hypothetical. At the end of the day, Gray didn’t pitch those additional 25 innings, and who’s to say he would be just as effective if he had? But the point remains that his performance, when healthy, was commendable. So how can Gray and the Twins make sure that he’s in a position to remain mostly healthy in his contract year?
First, a regular offseason is bound to help. Due to the MLB lockout, players weren’t allowed to contact team officials from early December through February last year, and that hurt a lot of pitchers, Gray included. They couldn’t get that necessary communication with the training staff and were essentially on their own for nearly three months. Then, spring training was delayed and shortened, and Gray needed extra time to ramp up his activity. That’s not a winning combination for a veteran pitcher that has a very particular process. 
This year should be much more normal for Gray and the rest of the pitchers around the league. He has a normal off-season operation, a regular spring training, and not to mention, the further all pitchers get from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season the better. 
So with more normalcy in his pre-season routine, can his tools carry him to ace status as he enters his age-33 season? To do that, he’ll need to continue to evolve as a pitcher with diminished velocity. His fastball averaged just 92.1 MPH last season, but he was able to rely on heavy spin rates to still use it effectively. His heater averaged 2485 RPM last season, which was the fifth-highest among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched. Other names atop that leaderboard include Joe Musgrove, Julio Urias, and Dylan Cease. 
If he can pair that heavy fastball with his curveball that batters only hit at a .193 clip with just a .273 slugging percentage, then he should be able to maintain his effectiveness as he ages. He can’t rely on pumping his fastball past his opponents anymore, but he can use it in an effort to get weak contact or to set up his "yacker" later in the at-bat.    So yes, Gray falls short of ace status as things currently stand, but he’s not far off from being a comfortable Game 1 starter in a playoff series. At the very least, he has put himself in the same conversation as the frontline starters listed above, each of whom has a star-level reputation.    What are your thoughts on what constitutes an "Ace" in today's MLB? Do you agree that Sonny Gray is probably a touch below "Ace," but would you be comfortable with him as a Game 1 starter in a playoff series? Jump in the comments and let us know your thoughts.  

Pitchers and catchers officially report to spring training next week, and all eyes are going to be on a group of arms that make up the five-man starting rotation. Sure, a lot can happen throughout the course of the spring, but the club pretty much has five names penciled in for their starting corps. If healthy, veterans Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, and Pablo Lopez join a rotation that will feature last year’s Opening Day starter, Joe Ryan. 
But the man that rounds out that group is the one that most closely resembles a frontline starter.
Sonny Gray was limited to just 120 innings pitched last year, but he mostly showed the peripheral stats that offer ace-level upside when he was able to take the field. That resulted in strong surface-level marks, including a 3.08 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. His 2.7 BB/9 was the strongest mark in his last six seasons, and while his 8.8 K/9 was his lowest rate since 2018, he was able to get outs by allowing fewer barreled balls (78th percentile).
Unfortunately, a nagging hamstring issue put Gray on the shelf at various points during the 2022 campaign, including the final three weeks of the season. If these injury woes didn’t hold him back, how close would he be to a true ace?
Let’s say he remained healthy enough to keep going at the same pace in the final three weeks last year. That probably equates to about four additional appearances, not to mention his final start on September 19th when he had to leave in the third inning due to his hamstring issue. So let’s say about five additional starts. If he averaged around five innings in each of those games, he would have 25 additional innings under his belt. That puts him at just about 150 innings pitched.
That seems underwhelming at first, but it is definitely a full season in today’s major-league baseball. While it’s well below the American League leader (Framber Valdez, 201 IP), it puts him in the same conversation as other starting pitcher stars such as Luis Castillo (150 1/3 IP), Zack Wheeler (153 IP), Brandon Woodruff (153 1/3 IP) and Nestor Cortes (158 1/3 IP). All four of those pitchers have made All-Star game appearances in the last two years and are considered true frontline starters despite their lower innings totals. Gray’s ERA and WHIP marks in 2022 weren’t far off from these four either. 
Of course, this comparison is totally hypothetical. At the end of the day, Gray didn’t pitch those additional 25 innings, and who’s to say he would be just as effective if he had? But the point remains that his performance, when healthy, was commendable. So how can Gray and the Twins make sure that he’s in a position to remain mostly healthy in his contract year?
First, a regular offseason is bound to help. Due to the MLB lockout, players weren’t allowed to contact team officials from early December through February last year, and that hurt a lot of pitchers, Gray included. They couldn’t get that necessary communication with the training staff and were essentially on their own for nearly three months. Then, spring training was delayed and shortened, and Gray needed extra time to ramp up his activity. That’s not a winning combination for a veteran pitcher that has a very particular process. 
This year should be much more normal for Gray and the rest of the pitchers around the league. He has a normal off-season operation, a regular spring training, and not to mention, the further all pitchers get from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season the better. 
So with more normalcy in his pre-season routine, can his tools carry him to ace status as he enters his age-33 season? To do that, he’ll need to continue to evolve as a pitcher with diminished velocity. His fastball averaged just 92.1 MPH last season, but he was able to rely on heavy spin rates to still use it effectively. His heater averaged 2485 RPM last season, which was the fifth-highest among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched. Other names atop that leaderboard include Joe Musgrove, Julio Urias, and Dylan Cease. 
If he can pair that heavy fastball with his curveball that batters only hit at a .193 clip with just a .273 slugging percentage, then he should be able to maintain his effectiveness as he ages. He can’t rely on pumping his fastball past his opponents anymore, but he can use it in an effort to get weak contact or to set up his "yacker" later in the at-bat.    So yes, Gray falls short of ace status as things currently stand, but he’s not far off from being a comfortable Game 1 starter in a playoff series. At the very least, he has put himself in the same conversation as the frontline starters listed above, each of whom has a star-level reputation.    What are your thoughts on what constitutes an "Ace" in today's MLB? Do you agree that Sonny Gray is probably a touch below "Ace," but would you be comfortable with him as a Game 1 starter in a playoff series? Jump in the comments and let us know your thoughts.  

Pitchers and catchers officially report to spring training next week, and all eyes are going to be on a group of arms that make up the five-man starting rotation. Sure, a lot can happen throughout the course of the spring, but the club pretty much has five names penciled in for their starting corps. If healthy, veterans Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, and Pablo Lopez join a rotation that will feature last year’s Opening Day starter, Joe Ryan. 
But the man that rounds out that group is the one that most closely resembles a frontline starter.
Sonny Gray was limited to just 120 innings pitched last year, but he mostly showed the peripheral stats that offer ace-level upside when he was able to take the field. That resulted in strong surface-level marks, including a 3.08 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. His 2.7 BB/9 was the strongest mark in his last six seasons, and while his 8.8 K/9 was his lowest rate since 2018, he was able to get outs by allowing fewer barreled balls (78th percentile).
Unfortunately, a nagging hamstring issue put Gray on the shelf at various points during the 2022 campaign, including the final three weeks of the season. If these injury woes didn’t hold him back, how close would he be to a true ace?
Let’s say he remained healthy enough to keep going at the same pace in the final three weeks last year. That probably equates to about four additional appearances, not to mention his final start on September 19th when he had to leave in the third inning due to his hamstring issue. So let’s say about five additional starts. If he averaged around five innings in each of those games, he would have 25 additional innings under his belt. That puts him at just about 150 innings pitched.
That seems underwhelming at first, but it is definitely a full season in today’s major-league baseball. While it’s well below the American League leader (Framber Valdez, 201 IP), it puts him in the same conversation as other starting pitcher stars such as Luis Castillo (150 1/3 IP), Zack Wheeler (153 IP), Brandon Woodruff (153 1/3 IP) and Nestor Cortes (158 1/3 IP). All four of those pitchers have made All-Star game appearances in the last two years and are considered true frontline starters despite their lower innings totals. Gray’s ERA and WHIP marks in 2022 weren’t far off from these four either. 
Of course, this comparison is totally hypothetical. At the end of the day, Gray didn’t pitch those additional 25 innings, and who’s to say he would be just as effective if he had? But the point remains that his performance, when healthy, was commendable. So how can Gray and the Twins make sure that he’s in a position to remain mostly healthy in his contract year?
First, a regular offseason is bound to help. Due to the MLB lockout, players weren’t allowed to contact team officials from early December through February last year, and that hurt a lot of pitchers, Gray included. They couldn’t get that necessary communication with the training staff and were essentially on their own for nearly three months. Then, spring training was delayed and shortened, and Gray needed extra time to ramp up his activity. That’s not a winning combination for a veteran pitcher that has a very particular process. 
This year should be much more normal for Gray and the rest of the pitchers around the league. He has a normal off-season operation, a regular spring training, and not to mention, the further all pitchers get from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season the better. 
So with more normalcy in his pre-season routine, can his tools carry him to ace status as he enters his age-33 season? To do that, he’ll need to continue to evolve as a pitcher with diminished velocity. His fastball averaged just 92.1 MPH last season, but he was able to rely on heavy spin rates to still use it effectively. His heater averaged 2485 RPM last season, which was the fifth-highest among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched. Other names atop that leaderboard include Joe Musgrove, Julio Urias, and Dylan Cease. 
If he can pair that heavy fastball with his curveball that batters only hit at a .193 clip with just a .273 slugging percentage, then he should be able to maintain his effectiveness as he ages. He can’t rely on pumping his fastball past his opponents anymore, but he can use it in an effort to get weak contact or to set up his "yacker" later in the at-bat.    So yes, Gray falls short of ace status as things currently stand, but he’s not far off from being a comfortable Game 1 starter in a playoff series. At the very least, he has put himself in the same conversation as the frontline starters listed above, each of whom has a star-level reputation.    What are your thoughts on what constitutes an "Ace" in today's MLB? Do you agree that Sonny Gray is probably a touch below "Ace," but would you be comfortable with him as a Game 1 starter in a playoff series? Jump in the comments and let us know your thoughts.  

Pitchers and catchers officially report to spring training next week, and all eyes are going to be on a group of arms that make up the five-man starting rotation. Sure, a lot can happen throughout the course of the spring, but the club pretty much has five names penciled in for their starting corps. If healthy, veterans Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, and Pablo Lopez join a rotation that will feature last year’s Opening Day starter, Joe Ryan. 
But the man that rounds out that group is the one that most closely resembles a frontline starter.
Sonny Gray was limited to just 120 innings pitched last year, but he mostly showed the peripheral stats that offer ace-level upside when he was able to take the field. That resulted in strong surface-level marks, including a 3.08 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. His 2.7 BB/9 was the strongest mark in his last six seasons, and while his 8.8 K/9 was his lowest rate since 2018, he was able to get outs by allowing fewer barreled balls (78th percentile).
Unfortunately, a nagging hamstring issue put Gray on the shelf at various points during the 2022 campaign, including the final three weeks of the season. If these injury woes didn’t hold him back, how close would he be to a true ace?
Let’s say he remained healthy enough to keep going at the same pace in the final three weeks last year. That probably equates to about four additional appearances, not to mention his final start on September 19th when he had to leave in the third inning due to his hamstring issue. So let’s say about five additional starts. If he averaged around five innings in each of those games, he would have 25 additional innings under his belt. That puts him at just about 150 innings pitched.
That seems underwhelming at first, but it is definitely a full season in today’s major-league baseball. While it’s well below the American League leader (Framber Valdez, 201 IP), it puts him in the same conversation as other starting pitcher stars such as Luis Castillo (150 1/3 IP), Zack Wheeler (153 IP), Brandon Woodruff (153 1/3 IP) and Nestor Cortes (158 1/3 IP). All four of those pitchers have made All-Star game appearances in the last two years and are considered true frontline starters despite their lower innings totals. Gray’s ERA and WHIP marks in 2022 weren’t far off from these four either. 
Of course, this comparison is totally hypothetical. At the end of the day, Gray didn’t pitch those additional 25 innings, and who’s to say he would be just as effective if he had? But the point remains that his performance, when healthy, was commendable. So how can Gray and the Twins make sure that he’s in a position to remain mostly healthy in his contract year?
First, a regular offseason is bound to help. Due to the MLB lockout, players weren’t allowed to contact team officials from early December through February last year, and that hurt a lot of pitchers, Gray included. They couldn’t get that necessary communication with the training staff and were essentially on their own for nearly three months. Then, spring training was delayed and shortened, and Gray needed extra time to ramp up his activity. That’s not a winning combination for a veteran pitcher that has a very particular process. 
This year should be much more normal for Gray and the rest of the pitchers around the league. He has a normal off-season operation, a regular spring training, and not to mention, the further all pitchers get from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season the better. 
So with more normalcy in his pre-season routine, can his tools carry him to ace status as he enters his age-33 season? To do that, he’ll need to continue to evolve as a pitcher with diminished velocity. His fastball averaged just 92.1 MPH last season, but he was able to rely on heavy spin rates to still use it effectively. His heater averaged 2485 RPM last season, which was the fifth-highest among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched. Other names atop that leaderboard include Joe Musgrove, Julio Urias, and Dylan Cease. 
If he can pair that heavy fastball with his curveball that batters only hit at a .193 clip with just a .273 slugging percentage, then he should be able to maintain his effectiveness as he ages. He can’t rely on pumping his fastball past his opponents anymore, but he can use it in an effort to get weak contact or to set up his "yacker" later in the at-bat.    So yes, Gray falls short of ace status as things currently stand, but he’s not far off from being a comfortable Game 1 starter in a playoff series. At the very least, he has put himself in the same conversation as the frontline starters listed above, each of whom has a star-level reputation.    What are your thoughts on what constitutes an "Ace" in today's MLB? Do you agree that Sonny Gray is probably a touch below "Ace," but would you be comfortable with him as a Game 1 starter in a playoff series? Jump in the comments and let us know your thoughts.  

Pitchers and catchers officially report to spring training next week, and all eyes are going to be on a group of arms that make up the five-man starting rotation. Sure, a lot can happen throughout the course of the spring, but the club pretty much has five names penciled in for their starting corps. If healthy, veterans Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, and Pablo Lopez join a rotation that will feature last year’s Opening Day starter, Joe Ryan. 
But the man that rounds out that group is the one that most closely resembles a frontline starter.
Sonny Gray was limited to just 120 innings pitched last year, but he mostly showed the peripheral stats that offer ace-level upside when he was able to take the field. That resulted in strong surface-level marks, including a 3.08 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. His 2.7 BB/9 was the strongest mark in his last six seasons, and while his 8.8 K/9 was his lowest rate since 2018, he was able to get outs by allowing fewer barreled balls (78th percentile).
Unfortunately, a nagging hamstring issue put Gray on the shelf at various points during the 2022 campaign, including the final three weeks of the season. If these injury woes didn’t hold him back, how close would he be to a true ace?
Let’s say he remained healthy enough to keep going at the same pace in the final three weeks last year. That probably equates to about four additional appearances, not to mention his final start on September 19th when he had to leave in the third inning due to his hamstring issue. So let’s say about five additional starts. If he averaged around five innings in each of those games, he would have 25 additional innings under his belt. That puts him at just about 150 innings pitched.
That seems underwhelming at first, but it is definitely a full season in today’s major-league baseball. While it’s well below the American League leader (Framber Valdez, 201 IP), it puts him in the same conversation as other starting pitcher stars such as Luis Castillo (150 1/3 IP), Zack Wheeler (153 IP), Brandon Woodruff (153 1/3 IP) and Nestor Cortes (158 1/3 IP). All four of those pitchers have made All-Star game appearances in the last two years and are considered true frontline starters despite their lower innings totals. Gray’s ERA and WHIP marks in 2022 weren’t far off from these four either. 
Of course, this comparison is totally hypothetical. At the end of the day, Gray didn’t pitch those additional 25 innings, and who’s to say he would be just as effective if he had? But the point remains that his performance, when healthy, was commendable. So how can Gray and the Twins make sure that he’s in a position to remain mostly healthy in his contract year?
First, a regular offseason is bound to help. Due to the MLB lockout, players weren’t allowed to contact team officials from early December through February last year, and that hurt a lot of pitchers, Gray included. They couldn’t get that necessary communication with the training staff and were essentially on their own for nearly three months. Then, spring training was delayed and shortened, and Gray needed extra time to ramp up his activity. That’s not a winning combination for a veteran pitcher that has a very particular process. 
This year should be much more normal for Gray and the rest of the pitchers around the league. He has a normal off-season operation, a regular spring training, and not to mention, the further all pitchers get from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season the better. 
So with more normalcy in his pre-season routine, can his tools carry him to ace status as he enters his age-33 season? To do that, he’ll need to continue to evolve as a pitcher with diminished velocity. His fastball averaged just 92.1 MPH last season, but he was able to rely on heavy spin rates to still use it effectively. His heater averaged 2485 RPM last season, which was the fifth-highest among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched. Other names atop that leaderboard include Joe Musgrove, Julio Urias, and Dylan Cease. 
If he can pair that heavy fastball with his curveball that batters only hit at a .193 clip with just a .273 slugging percentage, then he should be able to maintain his effectiveness as he ages. He can’t rely on pumping his fastball past his opponents anymore, but he can use it in an effort to get weak contact or to set up his "yacker" later in the at-bat.    So yes, Gray falls short of ace status as things currently stand, but he’s not far off from being a comfortable Game 1 starter in a playoff series. At the very least, he has put himself in the same conversation as the frontline starters listed above, each of whom has a star-level reputation.    What are your thoughts on what constitutes an "Ace" in today's MLB? Do you agree that Sonny Gray is probably a touch below "Ace," but would you be comfortable with him as a Game 1 starter in a playoff series? Jump in the comments and let us know your thoughts.  

Pitchers and catchers officially report to spring training next week, and all eyes are going to be on a group of arms that make up the five-man starting rotation. Sure, a lot can happen throughout the course of the spring, but the club pretty much has five names penciled in for their starting corps. If healthy, veterans Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, and Pablo Lopez join a rotation that will feature last year’s Opening Day starter, Joe Ryan. 
But the man that rounds out that group is the one that most closely resembles a frontline starter.
Sonny Gray was limited to just 120 innings pitched last year, but he mostly showed the peripheral stats that offer ace-level upside when he was able to take the field. That resulted in strong surface-level marks, including a 3.08 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. His 2.7 BB/9 was the strongest mark in his last six seasons, and while his 8.8 K/9 was his lowest rate since 2018, he was able to get outs by allowing fewer barreled balls (78th percentile).
Unfortunately, a nagging hamstring issue put Gray on the shelf at various points during the 2022 campaign, including the final three weeks of the season. If these injury woes didn’t hold him back, how close would he be to a true ace?
Let’s say he remained healthy enough to keep going at the same pace in the final three weeks last year. That probably equates to about four additional appearances, not to mention his final start on September 19th when he had to leave in the third inning due to his hamstring issue. So let’s say about five additional starts. If he averaged around five innings in each of those games, he would have 25 additional innings under his belt. That puts him at just about 150 innings pitched.
That seems underwhelming at first, but it is definitely a full season in today’s major-league baseball. While it’s well below the American League leader (Framber Valdez, 201 IP), it puts him in the same conversation as other starting pitcher stars such as Luis Castillo (150 1/3 IP), Zack Wheeler (153 IP), Brandon Woodruff (153 1/3 IP) and Nestor Cortes (158 1/3 IP). All four of those pitchers have made All-Star game appearances in the last two years and are considered true frontline starters despite their lower innings totals. Gray’s ERA and WHIP marks in 2022 weren’t far off from these four either. 
Of course, this comparison is totally hypothetical. At the end of the day, Gray didn’t pitch those additional 25 innings, and who’s to say he would be just as effective if he had? But the point remains that his performance, when healthy, was commendable. So how can Gray and the Twins make sure that he’s in a position to remain mostly healthy in his contract year?
First, a regular offseason is bound to help. Due to the MLB lockout, players weren’t allowed to contact team officials from early December through February last year, and that hurt a lot of pitchers, Gray included. They couldn’t get that necessary communication with the training staff and were essentially on their own for nearly three months. Then, spring training was delayed and shortened, and Gray needed extra time to ramp up his activity. That’s not a winning combination for a veteran pitcher that has a very particular process. 
This year should be much more normal for Gray and the rest of the pitchers around the league. He has a normal off-season operation, a regular spring training, and not to mention, the further all pitchers get from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season the better. 
So with more normalcy in his pre-season routine, can his tools carry him to ace status as he enters his age-33 season? To do that, he’ll need to continue to evolve as a pitcher with diminished velocity. His fastball averaged just 92.1 MPH last season, but he was able to rely on heavy spin rates to still use it effectively. His heater averaged 2485 RPM last season, which was the fifth-highest among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched. Other names atop that leaderboard include Joe Musgrove, Julio Urias, and Dylan Cease. 
If he can pair that heavy fastball with his curveball that batters only hit at a .193 clip with just a .273 slugging percentage, then he should be able to maintain his effectiveness as he ages. He can’t rely on pumping his fastball past his opponents anymore, but he can use it in an effort to get weak contact or to set up his "yacker" later in the at-bat.    So yes, Gray falls short of ace status as things currently stand, but he’s not far off from being a comfortable Game 1 starter in a playoff series. At the very least, he has put himself in the same conversation as the frontline starters listed above, each of whom has a star-level reputation.    What are your thoughts on what constitutes an "Ace" in today's MLB? Do you agree that Sonny Gray is probably a touch below "Ace," but would you be comfortable with him as a Game 1 starter in a playoff series? Jump in the comments and let us know your thoughts.  

While many would argue that the starting rotation that breaks camp in late March is still lacking a true bonafide ace, there’s no arguing that the Twins have a much deeper class of pitchers than in recent years. 
Take the 2022 season as an example. As the campaign opened, the big-league starting corps consisted of Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober, Dylan Bundy, and Chris Archer. Even with a six-man rotation, the depth was tested early on. When the calendar flipped to May, Gray, and Ober both found themselves on the IL, with Josh Winder getting the call to fill in on the now five-man rotation. Just two weeks later, Paddack succumbed to an elbow injury and was replaced by Devin Smeltzer. Just weeks after that, the Twins trotted out Cole Sands and Chi Chi Gonzalez to fill out an even more depleted staff. 
As you can see, things can go south rather quickly when nagging injuries rise to the surface. 
That’s why depth is a critical aspect of building a competitive team. And this year, the group looks much deeper on paper. Beyond their projected major-league rotation consisting of Gray, Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda, they actually have a full staff of quality starter options stashed across the river in St. Paul. 
Rather than relying on the likes of Smeltzer, Gonzalez, or Sands when someone in the big-league rotation goes down, the Twins are on track to have a much stronger group of replacements. This includes top prospects Simeon Woods Richardson (No. 5 on Twins Daily’s prospect rankings), Louie Varland (No. 7) and hopefully a healthy Jordan Balazovic (No. 15). It would also presumably feature Ober and Winder, two exciting young arms that have shown flashes of belonging in the MLB despite notable injuries over the last two years. They could also look at Ronny Henriquez (No. 16) and Cole Sands in the Saints’ rotation, though both finished the 2022 campaign in the bullpen and may be best suited for that role going forward. 
After that collection, a group of non-roster invitees could theoretically stick around depending on what opportunities present themselves at the end of spring training. This class includes Jose De Leon, Randy Dobnak, and Dereck Rodriguez. None of these are expected to be big contributors to the big league roster, but then again, neither were Gonzalez, Sands and Aaron Sanchez in 2022. 
Nevertheless, this year’s crop of starting pitcher options at Triple-A looks better equipped to answer the call when the time comes. But how do they compare to the rest of the AL Central?
The Cleveland Guardians have the best MLB rotation in the division thanks to staff aces Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, as well as mid-rotation types such as Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac. But what if one or more go down with an injury? They’d be looking at the likes of Triple-A starters Xzavion Curry (their No. 23 ranked prospect according to Fangraphs), Hunter Gaddis (No. 37), and Konnor Pilkington. Each has already had a taste of MLB action, but none inspire much confidence. Other options include non-roster invitee Touki Toussaint, as well as Logan Allen (No. 4), but he would need to be added to their 40-man roster. 
On paper, the Chicago White Sox also have a strong MLB rotation to start the year. They’ll rely on stalwarts such as Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, and Dylan Cease, with Michael Kopech and Mike Clevinger (maybe?) rounding out their staff, albeit with less certainty due to an extensive injury history or off-the-field issues, respectively. Long story short, they have a likely chance of needing some reinforcements early on, and that’s where things get dicey on the south side. Next in line would be Davis Martin, Jonathan Stiever, and recent waiver-claim A.J. Alexy, who was just claimed from the Twins. All three have seen MLB action, but none have the prospect pedigree to suggest a breakout is imminent. Beyond that, the Sox are pretty short-handed thanks to a depleted farm system. 
The Detroit Tigers have many holes in their boat as they try to stay afloat after another front-office regime change. Starting pitching depth is among their biggest challenges. Their MLB rotation will most likely consist of Eduardo Rodriguez, Matthew Boyd, Michael Lorenzen, Matt Manning, and Spencer Turnbull. That staff would look a lot stronger if it included former top prospects Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal, but both are unlikely to be ready by opening day after having Tommy John and flexor tendon repair surgeries, respectively, in the second half of last year. Their Triple-A rotation will likely consist of Joey Wentz, Beau Brieske, Zach Logue, and Alex Faedo, who have each seen MLB action in the past year. After that, there really aren’t any top prospects or former big leaguers that project to be studying presences when the injury bug inevitably bites them.
The Kansas City Royals may still be a few years away from competing for the division crown, but their starting rotation options are plentiful for the time being. Their opening day staff will likely consist of Zack Greinke, Jordan Lyles, Brady Singer, Ryan Yarbrough, and Brad Keller, pushing their younger options to Triple-A. These young arms consist of mostly high draft picks, including four pitchers that were all taken in 2018 and have made their MLB debuts. This class includes Daniel Lynch, Jonathan Heasley, Kris Bubic, and Jackson Kowar. Between them, they have combined for 674 innings at the MLB level, so they should be set when the time comes. 
  As you can see from the rundown of the rest of the division, the Twins probably have the deepest starting pitcher corps even if it lacks the height seen in Cleveland or Chicago. The Royals have a similarly deep group at Triple-A, but their on-paper MLB rotation lacks the upside that can be seen in the Twins’ rotation. Does that mean the Twins are guaranteed to have the best pitching staff in the division? Absolutely not. But they are certainly better equipped to withstand a few injuries than they were last year. 
What do you think? Let us know in the comments whether you think the Twins’ pitching depth will be an asset or a liability this year.
 
 

While many would argue that the starting rotation that breaks camp in late March is still lacking a true bonafide ace, there’s no arguing that the Twins have a much deeper class of pitchers than in recent years. 
Take the 2022 season as an example. As the campaign opened, the big-league starting corps consisted of Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober, Dylan Bundy, and Chris Archer. Even with a six-man rotation, the depth was tested early on. When the calendar flipped to May, Gray, and Ober both found themselves on the IL, with Josh Winder getting the call to fill in on the now five-man rotation. Just two weeks later, Paddack succumbed to an elbow injury and was replaced by Devin Smeltzer. Just weeks after that, the Twins trotted out Cole Sands and Chi Chi Gonzalez to fill out an even more depleted staff. 
As you can see, things can go south rather quickly when nagging injuries rise to the surface. 
That’s why depth is a critical aspect of building a competitive team. And this year, the group looks much deeper on paper. Beyond their projected major-league rotation consisting of Gray, Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda, they actually have a full staff of quality starter options stashed across the river in St. Paul. 
Rather than relying on the likes of Smeltzer, Gonzalez, or Sands when someone in the big-league rotation goes down, the Twins are on track to have a much stronger group of replacements. This includes top prospects Simeon Woods Richardson (No. 5 on Twins Daily’s prospect rankings), Louie Varland (No. 7) and hopefully a healthy Jordan Balazovic (No. 15). It would also presumably feature Ober and Winder, two exciting young arms that have shown flashes of belonging in the MLB despite notable injuries over the last two years. They could also look at Ronny Henriquez (No. 16) and Cole Sands in the Saints’ rotation, though both finished the 2022 campaign in the bullpen and may be best suited for that role going forward. 
After that collection, a group of non-roster invitees could theoretically stick around depending on what opportunities present themselves at the end of spring training. This class includes Jose De Leon, Randy Dobnak, and Dereck Rodriguez. None of these are expected to be big contributors to the big league roster, but then again, neither were Gonzalez, Sands and Aaron Sanchez in 2022. 
Nevertheless, this year’s crop of starting pitcher options at Triple-A looks better equipped to answer the call when the time comes. But how do they compare to the rest of the AL Central?
The Cleveland Guardians have the best MLB rotation in the division thanks to staff aces Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, as well as mid-rotation types such as Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac. But what if one or more go down with an injury? They’d be looking at the likes of Triple-A starters Xzavion Curry (their No. 23 ranked prospect according to Fangraphs), Hunter Gaddis (No. 37), and Konnor Pilkington. Each has already had a taste of MLB action, but none inspire much confidence. Other options include non-roster invitee Touki Toussaint, as well as Logan Allen (No. 4), but he would need to be added to their 40-man roster. 
On paper, the Chicago White Sox also have a strong MLB rotation to start the year. They’ll rely on stalwarts such as Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, and Dylan Cease, with Michael Kopech and Mike Clevinger (maybe?) rounding out their staff, albeit with less certainty due to an extensive injury history or off-the-field issues, respectively. Long story short, they have a likely chance of needing some reinforcements early on, and that’s where things get dicey on the south side. Next in line would be Davis Martin, Jonathan Stiever, and recent waiver-claim A.J. Alexy, who was just claimed from the Twins. All three have seen MLB action, but none have the prospect pedigree to suggest a breakout is imminent. Beyond that, the Sox are pretty short-handed thanks to a depleted farm system. 
The Detroit Tigers have many holes in their boat as they try to stay afloat after another front-office regime change. Starting pitching depth is among their biggest challenges. Their MLB rotation will most likely consist of Eduardo Rodriguez, Matthew Boyd, Michael Lorenzen, Matt Manning, and Spencer Turnbull. That staff would look a lot stronger if it included former top prospects Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal, but both are unlikely to be ready by opening day after having Tommy John and flexor tendon repair surgeries, respectively, in the second half of last year. Their Triple-A rotation will likely consist of Joey Wentz, Beau Brieske, Zach Logue, and Alex Faedo, who have each seen MLB action in the past year. After that, there really aren’t any top prospects or former big leaguers that project to be studying presences when the injury bug inevitably bites them.
The Kansas City Royals may still be a few years away from competing for the division crown, but their starting rotation options are plentiful for the time being. Their opening day staff will likely consist of Zack Greinke, Jordan Lyles, Brady Singer, Ryan Yarbrough, and Brad Keller, pushing their younger options to Triple-A. These young arms consist of mostly high draft picks, including four pitchers that were all taken in 2018 and have made their MLB debuts. This class includes Daniel Lynch, Jonathan Heasley, Kris Bubic, and Jackson Kowar. Between them, they have combined for 674 innings at the MLB level, so they should be set when the time comes. 
  As you can see from the rundown of the rest of the division, the Twins probably have the deepest starting pitcher corps even if it lacks the height seen in Cleveland or Chicago. The Royals have a similarly deep group at Triple-A, but their on-paper MLB rotation lacks the upside that can be seen in the Twins’ rotation. Does that mean the Twins are guaranteed to have the best pitching staff in the division? Absolutely not. But they are certainly better equipped to withstand a few injuries than they were last year. 
What do you think? Let us know in the comments whether you think the Twins’ pitching depth will be an asset or a liability this year.
 
 

While many would argue that the starting rotation that breaks camp in late March is still lacking a true bonafide ace, there’s no arguing that the Twins have a much deeper class of pitchers than in recent years. 
Take the 2022 season as an example. As the campaign opened, the big-league starting corps consisted of Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober, Dylan Bundy, and Chris Archer. Even with a six-man rotation, the depth was tested early on. When the calendar flipped to May, Gray, and Ober both found themselves on the IL, with Josh Winder getting the call to fill in on the now five-man rotation. Just two weeks later, Paddack succumbed to an elbow injury and was replaced by Devin Smeltzer. Just weeks after that, the Twins trotted out Cole Sands and Chi Chi Gonzalez to fill out an even more depleted staff. 
As you can see, things can go south rather quickly when nagging injuries rise to the surface. 
That’s why depth is a critical aspect of building a competitive team. And this year, the group looks much deeper on paper. Beyond their projected major-league rotation consisting of Gray, Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda, they actually have a full staff of quality starter options stashed across the river in St. Paul. 
Rather than relying on the likes of Smeltzer, Gonzalez, or Sands when someone in the big-league rotation goes down, the Twins are on track to have a much stronger group of replacements. This includes top prospects Simeon Woods Richardson (No. 5 on Twins Daily’s prospect rankings), Louie Varland (No. 7) and hopefully a healthy Jordan Balazovic (No. 15). It would also presumably feature Ober and Winder, two exciting young arms that have shown flashes of belonging in the MLB despite notable injuries over the last two years. They could also look at Ronny Henriquez (No. 16) and Cole Sands in the Saints’ rotation, though both finished the 2022 campaign in the bullpen and may be best suited for that role going forward. 
After that collection, a group of non-roster invitees could theoretically stick around depending on what opportunities present themselves at the end of spring training. This class includes Jose De Leon, Randy Dobnak, and Dereck Rodriguez. None of these are expected to be big contributors to the big league roster, but then again, neither were Gonzalez, Sands and Aaron Sanchez in 2022. 
Nevertheless, this year’s crop of starting pitcher options at Triple-A looks better equipped to answer the call when the time comes. But how do they compare to the rest of the AL Central?
The Cleveland Guardians have the best MLB rotation in the division thanks to staff aces Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, as well as mid-rotation types such as Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac. But what if one or more go down with an injury? They’d be looking at the likes of Triple-A starters Xzavion Curry (their No. 23 ranked prospect according to Fangraphs), Hunter Gaddis (No. 37), and Konnor Pilkington. Each has already had a taste of MLB action, but none inspire much confidence. Other options include non-roster invitee Touki Toussaint, as well as Logan Allen (No. 4), but he would need to be added to their 40-man roster. 
On paper, the Chicago White Sox also have a strong MLB rotation to start the year. They’ll rely on stalwarts such as Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, and Dylan Cease, with Michael Kopech and Mike Clevinger (maybe?) rounding out their staff, albeit with less certainty due to an extensive injury history or off-the-field issues, respectively. Long story short, they have a likely chance of needing some reinforcements early on, and that’s where things get dicey on the south side. Next in line would be Davis Martin, Jonathan Stiever, and recent waiver-claim A.J. Alexy, who was just claimed from the Twins. All three have seen MLB action, but none have the prospect pedigree to suggest a breakout is imminent. Beyond that, the Sox are pretty short-handed thanks to a depleted farm system. 
The Detroit Tigers have many holes in their boat as they try to stay afloat after another front-office regime change. Starting pitching depth is among their biggest challenges. Their MLB rotation will most likely consist of Eduardo Rodriguez, Matthew Boyd, Michael Lorenzen, Matt Manning, and Spencer Turnbull. That staff would look a lot stronger if it included former top prospects Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal, but both are unlikely to be ready by opening day after having Tommy John and flexor tendon repair surgeries, respectively, in the second half of last year. Their Triple-A rotation will likely consist of Joey Wentz, Beau Brieske, Zach Logue, and Alex Faedo, who have each seen MLB action in the past year. After that, there really aren’t any top prospects or former big leaguers that project to be studying presences when the injury bug inevitably bites them.
The Kansas City Royals may still be a few years away from competing for the division crown, but their starting rotation options are plentiful for the time being. Their opening day staff will likely consist of Zack Greinke, Jordan Lyles, Brady Singer, Ryan Yarbrough, and Brad Keller, pushing their younger options to Triple-A. These young arms consist of mostly high draft picks, including four pitchers that were all taken in 2018 and have made their MLB debuts. This class includes Daniel Lynch, Jonathan Heasley, Kris Bubic, and Jackson Kowar. Between them, they have combined for 674 innings at the MLB level, so they should be set when the time comes. 
  As you can see from the rundown of the rest of the division, the Twins probably have the deepest starting pitcher corps even if it lacks the height seen in Cleveland or Chicago. The Royals have a similarly deep group at Triple-A, but their on-paper MLB rotation lacks the upside that can be seen in the Twins’ rotation. Does that mean the Twins are guaranteed to have the best pitching staff in the division? Absolutely not. But they are certainly better equipped to withstand a few injuries than they were last year. 
What do you think? Let us know in the comments whether you think the Twins’ pitching depth will be an asset or a liability this year.
 
 

While many would argue that the starting rotation that breaks camp in late March is still lacking a true bonafide ace, there’s no arguing that the Twins have a much deeper class of pitchers than in recent years. 
Take the 2022 season as an example. As the campaign opened, the big-league starting corps consisted of Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober, Dylan Bundy, and Chris Archer. Even with a six-man rotation, the depth was tested early on. When the calendar flipped to May, Gray, and Ober both found themselves on the IL, with Josh Winder getting the call to fill in on the now five-man rotation. Just two weeks later, Paddack succumbed to an elbow injury and was replaced by Devin Smeltzer. Just weeks after that, the Twins trotted out Cole Sands and Chi Chi Gonzalez to fill out an even more depleted staff. 
As you can see, things can go south rather quickly when nagging injuries rise to the surface. 
That’s why depth is a critical aspect of building a competitive team. And this year, the group looks much deeper on paper. Beyond their projected major-league rotation consisting of Gray, Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda, they actually have a full staff of quality starter options stashed across the river in St. Paul. 
Rather than relying on the likes of Smeltzer, Gonzalez, or Sands when someone in the big-league rotation goes down, the Twins are on track to have a much stronger group of replacements. This includes top prospects Simeon Woods Richardson (No. 5 on Twins Daily’s prospect rankings), Louie Varland (No. 7) and hopefully a healthy Jordan Balazovic (No. 15). It would also presumably feature Ober and Winder, two exciting young arms that have shown flashes of belonging in the MLB despite notable injuries over the last two years. They could also look at Ronny Henriquez (No. 16) and Cole Sands in the Saints’ rotation, though both finished the 2022 campaign in the bullpen and may be best suited for that role going forward. 
After that collection, a group of non-roster invitees could theoretically stick around depending on what opportunities present themselves at the end of spring training. This class includes Jose De Leon, Randy Dobnak, and Dereck Rodriguez. None of these are expected to be big contributors to the big league roster, but then again, neither were Gonzalez, Sands and Aaron Sanchez in 2022. 
Nevertheless, this year’s crop of starting pitcher options at Triple-A looks better equipped to answer the call when the time comes. But how do they compare to the rest of the AL Central?
The Cleveland Guardians have the best MLB rotation in the division thanks to staff aces Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, as well as mid-rotation types such as Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac. But what if one or more go down with an injury? They’d be looking at the likes of Triple-A starters Xzavion Curry (their No. 23 ranked prospect according to Fangraphs), Hunter Gaddis (No. 37), and Konnor Pilkington. Each has already had a taste of MLB action, but none inspire much confidence. Other options include non-roster invitee Touki Toussaint, as well as Logan Allen (No. 4), but he would need to be added to their 40-man roster. 
On paper, the Chicago White Sox also have a strong MLB rotation to start the year. They’ll rely on stalwarts such as Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, and Dylan Cease, with Michael Kopech and Mike Clevinger (maybe?) rounding out their staff, albeit with less certainty due to an extensive injury history or off-the-field issues, respectively. Long story short, they have a likely chance of needing some reinforcements early on, and that’s where things get dicey on the south side. Next in line would be Davis Martin, Jonathan Stiever, and recent waiver-claim A.J. Alexy, who was just claimed from the Twins. All three have seen MLB action, but none have the prospect pedigree to suggest a breakout is imminent. Beyond that, the Sox are pretty short-handed thanks to a depleted farm system. 
The Detroit Tigers have many holes in their boat as they try to stay afloat after another front-office regime change. Starting pitching depth is among their biggest challenges. Their MLB rotation will most likely consist of Eduardo Rodriguez, Matthew Boyd, Michael Lorenzen, Matt Manning, and Spencer Turnbull. That staff would look a lot stronger if it included former top prospects Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal, but both are unlikely to be ready by opening day after having Tommy John and flexor tendon repair surgeries, respectively, in the second half of last year. Their Triple-A rotation will likely consist of Joey Wentz, Beau Brieske, Zach Logue, and Alex Faedo, who have each seen MLB action in the past year. After that, there really aren’t any top prospects or former big leaguers that project to be studying presences when the injury bug inevitably bites them.
The Kansas City Royals may still be a few years away from competing for the division crown, but their starting rotation options are plentiful for the time being. Their opening day staff will likely consist of Zack Greinke, Jordan Lyles, Brady Singer, Ryan Yarbrough, and Brad Keller, pushing their younger options to Triple-A. These young arms consist of mostly high draft picks, including four pitchers that were all taken in 2018 and have made their MLB debuts. This class includes Daniel Lynch, Jonathan Heasley, Kris Bubic, and Jackson Kowar. Between them, they have combined for 674 innings at the MLB level, so they should be set when the time comes. 
  As you can see from the rundown of the rest of the division, the Twins probably have the deepest starting pitcher corps even if it lacks the height seen in Cleveland or Chicago. The Royals have a similarly deep group at Triple-A, but their on-paper MLB rotation lacks the upside that can be seen in the Twins’ rotation. Does that mean the Twins are guaranteed to have the best pitching staff in the division? Absolutely not. But they are certainly better equipped to withstand a few injuries than they were last year. 
What do you think? Let us know in the comments whether you think the Twins’ pitching depth will be an asset or a liability this year.
 
 

While many would argue that the starting rotation that breaks camp in late March is still lacking a true bonafide ace, there’s no arguing that the Twins have a much deeper class of pitchers than in recent years. 
Take the 2022 season as an example. As the campaign opened, the big-league starting corps consisted of Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober, Dylan Bundy, and Chris Archer. Even with a six-man rotation, the depth was tested early on. When the calendar flipped to May, Gray, and Ober both found themselves on the IL, with Josh Winder getting the call to fill in on the now five-man rotation. Just two weeks later, Paddack succumbed to an elbow injury and was replaced by Devin Smeltzer. Just weeks after that, the Twins trotted out Cole Sands and Chi Chi Gonzalez to fill out an even more depleted staff. 
As you can see, things can go south rather quickly when nagging injuries rise to the surface. 
That’s why depth is a critical aspect of building a competitive team. And this year, the group looks much deeper on paper. Beyond their projected major-league rotation consisting of Gray, Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda, they actually have a full staff of quality starter options stashed across the river in St. Paul. 
Rather than relying on the likes of Smeltzer, Gonzalez, or Sands when someone in the big-league rotation goes down, the Twins are on track to have a much stronger group of replacements. This includes top prospects Simeon Woods Richardson (No. 5 on Twins Daily’s prospect rankings), Louie Varland (No. 7) and hopefully a healthy Jordan Balazovic (No. 15). It would also presumably feature Ober and Winder, two exciting young arms that have shown flashes of belonging in the MLB despite notable injuries over the last two years. They could also look at Ronny Henriquez (No. 16) and Cole Sands in the Saints’ rotation, though both finished the 2022 campaign in the bullpen and may be best suited for that role going forward. 
After that collection, a group of non-roster invitees could theoretically stick around depending on what opportunities present themselves at the end of spring training. This class includes Jose De Leon, Randy Dobnak, and Dereck Rodriguez. None of these are expected to be big contributors to the big league roster, but then again, neither were Gonzalez, Sands and Aaron Sanchez in 2022. 
Nevertheless, this year’s crop of starting pitcher options at Triple-A looks better equipped to answer the call when the time comes. But how do they compare to the rest of the AL Central?
The Cleveland Guardians have the best MLB rotation in the division thanks to staff aces Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, as well as mid-rotation types such as Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac. But what if one or more go down with an injury? They’d be looking at the likes of Triple-A starters Xzavion Curry (their No. 23 ranked prospect according to Fangraphs), Hunter Gaddis (No. 37), and Konnor Pilkington. Each has already had a taste of MLB action, but none inspire much confidence. Other options include non-roster invitee Touki Toussaint, as well as Logan Allen (No. 4), but he would need to be added to their 40-man roster. 
On paper, the Chicago White Sox also have a strong MLB rotation to start the year. They’ll rely on stalwarts such as Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, and Dylan Cease, with Michael Kopech and Mike Clevinger (maybe?) rounding out their staff, albeit with less certainty due to an extensive injury history or off-the-field issues, respectively. Long story short, they have a likely chance of needing some reinforcements early on, and that’s where things get dicey on the south side. Next in line would be Davis Martin, Jonathan Stiever, and recent waiver-claim A.J. Alexy, who was just claimed from the Twins. All three have seen MLB action, but none have the prospect pedigree to suggest a breakout is imminent. Beyond that, the Sox are pretty short-handed thanks to a depleted farm system. 
The Detroit Tigers have many holes in their boat as they try to stay afloat after another front-office regime change. Starting pitching depth is among their biggest challenges. Their MLB rotation will most likely consist of Eduardo Rodriguez, Matthew Boyd, Michael Lorenzen, Matt Manning, and Spencer Turnbull. That staff would look a lot stronger if it included former top prospects Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal, but both are unlikely to be ready by opening day after having Tommy John and flexor tendon repair surgeries, respectively, in the second half of last year. Their Triple-A rotation will likely consist of Joey Wentz, Beau Brieske, Zach Logue, and Alex Faedo, who have each seen MLB action in the past year. After that, there really aren’t any top prospects or former big leaguers that project to be studying presences when the injury bug inevitably bites them.
The Kansas City Royals may still be a few years away from competing for the division crown, but their starting rotation options are plentiful for the time being. Their opening day staff will likely consist of Zack Greinke, Jordan Lyles, Brady Singer, Ryan Yarbrough, and Brad Keller, pushing their younger options to Triple-A. These young arms consist of mostly high draft picks, including four pitchers that were all taken in 2018 and have made their MLB debuts. This class includes Daniel Lynch, Jonathan Heasley, Kris Bubic, and Jackson Kowar. Between them, they have combined for 674 innings at the MLB level, so they should be set when the time comes. 
  As you can see from the rundown of the rest of the division, the Twins probably have the deepest starting pitcher corps even if it lacks the height seen in Cleveland or Chicago. The Royals have a similarly deep group at Triple-A, but their on-paper MLB rotation lacks the upside that can be seen in the Twins’ rotation. Does that mean the Twins are guaranteed to have the best pitching staff in the division? Absolutely not. But they are certainly better equipped to withstand a few injuries than they were last year. 
What do you think? Let us know in the comments whether you think the Twins’ pitching depth will be an asset or a liability this year.