BuxtonBonanza

The excitement is palpable, enjoy that Florida weather!

If the Twins think Lewis can be back this season, they are probably willing to roll the dice and wait for him to get 100% and not have Urshela as a backup to Miradana or Polanco. Once Lewis is up, I suspect he will take over Polanco's spot which would also lessen the possibility of his 500 AB option vesting. With Lee on the way and SS on lockdown for 6 years, the Twins need to see what they have with Miranda (signed until 2026) and Ushela taking away ABs and innings in the field don't help with that assessment. While it would be great to have Urshela as a backup, having him play doesn't serve the medium to longterm future of the Twins and if the FO could get a prospect for him, I can see why they did it and don't have an issue with the team depth in 2023 or beyond.

One of my favorite cards so far this calendar year is the Joe Ryan throwback RC card. Such a classic design from the 1987 Topps All Star set. Hopefully Topps keeps mixing up the cool historic designs with the contemporary players.

I will be there for the Oakland series! Looking forward to it, I have heard so many things about the Coliseum both good (fans) and bad (possums) that I can't wait to see it for myself.

I think on Gleeman and the Geek there was a mention that Correa was advocating for more starting pitching help and I wonder if this was some result of that campaigning?

I think most players in the modern era will have issues some more problematic than others so it is all a calculated risk. Correa is but so is DeGrom for the Rangers (pitched 38 games in the last 3 seasons) or Judge for the Yankees (who had a partially collapsed lung at one point!). I think the Twins have had particularly bad luck with Mahle and Paddock which does influence some of our perceptions but if a player has a few years of service time, they are probably dinged up one way or another before a trade or FA.

Agree with many on the thread, bring on the roboumps but not the challenges. Once we accepted replay potentially overturning human decisions on the field, then the strike zone became the logical next step and a necessary one. This coupled with the pitch clock and the game is much more mechanistic than it was in 1901 upon the founding of the American League but its still the same basic game which we all have fun watching, just changing in subtle ways for the better, Still though, screw the challenges.

Truly crazy but it seems like it is a win for both sides. High AAV for a high value player and if everything goes well with the leg, the ability to extend for a reasonable amount of money (especially considering the value of money with inflation in the years to come). Yet another creative deal by this FO after the deal last year as well as Buxton's. You don't necessarily need to throw a ton of money for a ton of years to get it done in today's FA market and they are showing it. Interesting!

Even if they don't end up with Correa after the second bite at the apple, at least they are willing to play in the deeper end of the free agent waters. Sure there are no free agent medals for second place but the FO is willing to spend $200M+ which is what is going to take for upper tier free agents moving forward. Of course, some free agents like Ohtani and perhaps Soto will have their number start with a 5 but given how much past FOs have played in the shallow end, they have to start somewhere so why not Correa?

I think the FO does have a philosophy but like any other FO in sports, it doesn't share that readily with the public. The recent contractual trends seem to be either very long term to bring down the AAV OR 1 / 1+1 deals so this FO seems to be making similar decisions with a long term deal for Buxton, a long term offer for Correa and a bunch of short term deals and trades. What I am curious about is what is their plan for the starting pitchers, as there a lot of them (Mahle, Maeda and Gray) have deals up after next season. It is tough to intuit what they are looking to do past 2023 but whatever the plan is, I doubt it is a "road to nowhere".

There is something really off/weird about him being the odd man out for two off seasons in a row. It could be the pricetag the years, the timing of deals being struck or all three. By all accounts the Twins really liked what he brought to the table as a player so if he is truly back on the market and the Twins are interested it might be worthwhile to roll the dice for a high AAV but shorter commitment (say 5 years?).

The dark blue really pops with the creme coloring and the flags are pretty killer. Had to get Buxton, natch, and am stoked to rock it this season. Is anyone else pulling the trigger on the '23 jerseys?

A healthy Buxton has to be an automatic MVP finalist. Using past bWAR as a predictor, in 2021 he had 4.5 bWAR in 61 games which comes out to 11.8 bWAR for 162 game season and in 2022 he had 4 bWAR in 92 games which comes out to about 7 bWAR for 162 (I was terrible at math so take all of this with a grain of salt). The top two MVP finishers last year were Ohtani with 9.6 bWAR and Judge with 10.6 bWAR. If he can just keep it together, he will definitely be in the conversation but that is always a big if.

Awesome year long report! I live in California and am hoping to travel to MN to see a home stand this season. Really looking forward to it and this report helps fuel my mania (and the hope for some inexpensive but great seats)!

Agreed, I really dug Pache's game on the Braves (the A's, not so much) so we if we are dumpster diving go for the upside. Zips projects slightly above replacement level so ¯\_ (ツ)_/¯ 2023 FGDC PROJ 71 308 8 .227 .280 .373 .286 90 0.7

Agreed, the analytics may be similar but the WAR results certainly aren't and even if you were inclined to trade for Kepler for the potential upside suggested by analytics, Varsho has 4 years of club control where Kepler has one more year then a club option. Varsho's analytics project him to be good, his history has proven he is good and taking into account that he is under significant team control and you can see how the D-backs could receive a major league player in Gurriel and a fantastic prospect in Moreno. Conversely, Kepler has less control, less results and decent analytics so there is no way he is getting a Varsho-like return in the trade, especially if the sentiment is that he is likely lose his roster spot to the current version of Gallo. Sure some team may take a flier on him to get the current level of production and maybe more but I think at most we would get a mid-tier prospect here.

Much has been made recently about how broken the MLB is compared to the NFL with respect to revenue sharing. National deals (ESPN, BamTech etc.) are split equally while RSNs are a cash printing machine for many but not all. The luxury tax acts as a soft cap but the lower revenue teams who receive it don't use it to spend up to any type of soft floor. Despite this inequality leading to multiple 100 loss teams and long suffering fandoms, the optimist in me sees the possibility of a lot of creative ways to skin the cat. The Dodgers/Yankees blow the doors out on payroll almost yearly but you also have the Rays who operate on the edge of talent assessment and payroll. Yes Cohen/Seidler go all in on FA and trades but you also have the Braves who lock up talent at a young age to team-friendly (but not wholly inequitable) contracts. You also have a few teams a year (like the Orioles and the Guardians last year) who go full out young and hope to catch lighting in the bottle. If it were up to me, I would institute a floor and completely reconfigure revenue sharing but since the likelihood of that is remote to say the least, the current model at least gives a team several ways to navigate toward a championship. For the Twins who sit in the middle of payroll, there seems to be no clear direction they are charting although we all wish that they would be more like Cohen than Fisher. Offering $285M to Correa is an encouraging sign of spending more but who knows whether the game has truly changed for the FO/owners or not.

If Rocco/FO continue to manage the pitching staff as they have in the past then the relief corps will have to improve (other than Duran) for the Twins to have a chance. 2022 saw 27 blown saves, 10th out of 15 teams in ERA, 468 walks issued, the list goes on. Pagan tops this need-to-step-up list carrying an impressive -0.1 fWAR across 59 innings in 2022 and firmly in the spotlight/ire of the fanbase. The biggest area for improvement is the gopher ball, being the only reliever on the staff to give up double digit home runs. He has to cut down on the long ball. Lopez's improvement as a closer is crucial as well. The O's and Twins clearly thinks he could be a lockdown closer and seeing him in person against the Angels, he has the stuff (although not the Stuff+ apparently) to be a closer but will he? Winder, historically thought of as a starter, if the Twins are thinking about continuing him on that trajectory or moving him to the pen, either way he needs to be part of the next wave of pitchers making a substantial contribution. 3 starters and Pagan will be free agents in 2024 so there will be holes aplenty. If Winder does move to the pen they need to start rebuilding how he approaches the game now but he needs to step up now to try and make the future more certain.

I don't think they missed anything as I think the Twins and a bunch of other teams would sign Correa with his current health but it all comes down to length, insurability and risk taking. If no one can insure a long term contract and aren't willing to take the risk otherwise, then would the Twins be back in the game if they up'ed the AAV and offer a shorter term contract? The pendulum has swung to long deals with lower AAV but the Twins showed that 3/105 could work so upping the AAV could be another way to skin the cat (say 5/175-200?). That being said, I think the odds of the Mets' deal going south is very low, Cohen will want to save face as will Boras so they are motivated to restructure the deal rather than scuttling a second deal in a row. Still, I think the Correa 3/105 deal could serve as a template to try and bring in other free agents if this FO want to mitigate health risks.

Agreed, the HoF voters seem to be really strict when it comes to first ballot inductees although they are more than happy to vote for them starting year 2. So I think he is more than good enough to get elected within the first 5 years. Crossing fingers!