August J Gloop

I think that Ober might be a part of a trade that interests the Rays, but they want offense over there. Deffo gotta get them a couple OPS+ > 100 potential bats. (ETA affordable bats. It is the Rays we're talking about)

I guess I'm puzzled at your new metric here. Are you saying that each of our outfielders will generate nearly 1 run every game? That seems pretty sweet to me. Bat Gallo leadoff so he gets 5.5 PA per game and boom. I'm wondering if this run generated stat is double counting the RBI and run that a player creates when hitting a home run. Also it seems like it *might* not be the best way to measure actual productivity, since outside HRs, run generation requires outside participation.

Saw the rumor/news that Tampa is still on the hunt for offense. I could see 2 of Kep, Gordon, & Larnach + HQ prospect (Lee, Salas) heading out for McClanahan or Springs. Tampa hasn't locked McClanahan up so he's about to get arb $$. That's usually when TB moves someone. He so good, though, they might deviate in his case. Springs seems like a fine fallback. I think Springs shorter track record could reduce the quality of prospect that TB might ask for. Since Tampa is looking for offense - I'd guess it to be Larnach + Gordon. Trev is a hitter and Gordo seems right up their alley with the positional flexibility. Or they could forgo the prospect all together and send Glasnow. His injury risk would be the Twins Problem, but the main reason he is gettable for less.

Ho-hum, just out here collecting gold gloves. And not silly ones, but actual great defense ones.

Another strong trade. I was comfortably uncomfortable with letting Winder go for MAT, so this is groovy.

I think you missed a huge one. His career babip is .257. Which is low, so he's an actual shift victim. But his babip in 2022 was .219. Added terrible luck. The strikeouts are an issue, but Gallo is a guy who's played his whole career under extreme shift pressure. A game where getting 100+ EV barrels were worse than a strikeout, since it would end up as a DP. Perhaps a change in D can change his game. He doesn't have to reduce his approach to a slap hitter, just reduce strikeouts by say 10% over last year. That would only be a 6% improvement over his career average. I do predict that the shift ban will last maybe two seasons with scores getting into the 20s routinely. But I could be wrong. I just think hitting is so far ahead of pitching. So much easier to simulate and practice.

Seems likely, since he hit 19 last year in a career worst season. But they're more likely to see Gordon at first in that scenario, since Gallo is better in the outfield than Gordon. No sense playing two guys at less than optimal positions when you can get away with one. And this assumes AK's wrist is still junk. Otherwise, he'll be at first and Gordo on the bench.

The object of the game is not getting on base. It's advancing baserunners to home. The whole 'he gets on base' scene in Moneyball is a well directed scene and effective for the movie's distillation of the philosophy. But look at it this way - Gallo has 1.8 x more PAs in his career to Arraez. Yet he's got 1.9 times as many total bases. Doesn't sound like much until you put it to scale. if G and A both have the same number of ABs, 500, for example A: 205 TB. G: 234. That's 20 runners closer to home over a season, many of whom are auto scored since such a high percentage of his hits are HRs. Obviously, Gallo would be better if his slug was matched with better contact. And Arraez would be better if his contact was matched with better slug. But then again, that's why the twins might be getting a deal on Gallo. Minor increases in contact will yield much bigger payoffs than hoping for more slug from Arraez. And they're basically paying only for defense. That's also why Arraez was 'only' worth a #2 and two prospects rather than somebody's ace.

The offseason has played out pretty good all things considered. The Twins sit at a projected 2.3 WAR behind CLE and 9 behind the Yankees for the top spot on the projection list. Some of that is just pessimistic projecting. Buxton will likely be more than 3, Kiriloff more than 1.3. Kenta won't stay in the rotation if he's heading to just 1.5. But for argument's sake let's say that the 42.8 is basically correct. What can realistically still be done? While I'm sure it's tempting to rehash all the free agents not signed, that ship has sailed. Let's talk what still can be. (Also WAR has to be our tool cuz otherwise what standard measure could we use? All of our eye tests are different.) Ground rules. You can't just cut someone and make up a new WAR value for a prospect replacement (no matter how good their numbers are in MiLB). We will cap any prospect WAR value at the rookie rates from last year. Jose Miranda was tops on the team with one. Only 11 in MLB posted more than 2. So as much as I believe in Lewis, Julien, Martin. We can't just plug them in and say Boom! 3 win seasons! So we have to cap them in our exercise at 1,5 which is more or less where Jose would have been if he'd played 150. Also, no getting studs for junk. Make a trade, make it real. BTV is kinda bogus but it will help. We can't trade Emilio and Brian Duensing (and prospects) for Julio Rodriguez. Here are the areas I think have room for improvement: DH, Bully and Rotation. They have a payroll of around 140 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QXhMYkMxJE1VJvZiNMS1X7OHPFNaIVUjd-m1ZBCzHL4/edit#gid=1520401900) It's fair to assume they can still add, but the upper limit is likely lower than we might like. That being said, they've got to have at least 25 to play with still. Here are my ideas. 1- Sign Fulmer, Matt Moore and Zach Britton for around a total of 15. Britton is a bit of a wild card but if he's healthy it could work out. We've had some good luck with his agent recently in structuring a good health dependent contract. That trio could conservatively net around 2.5 wins between them, and all for just money. (I could hear arguments for other LHP, but my point is there are 2.5 wins in the pen still in free agency). We wouldn't be bumping anyone projected to provide +WAR with the signs, either. So just value. Also this is a low point. All three of those dudes have put up 2.5 on their own from the pen over their careers. [45.3] 2 - Crack open that prospect piggy bank and get something done with the Rockies. They appeared excited to trade Brendan Rogers to the fish earlier. I think that means with the right combination of pitching and player prospects the Twins could get German Marquez and Rogers. They could offer Bailey Ober (only if Rogers included) in this deal as Marquez is signed reasonably for this year and a club option for the next. Rogers would still require a better prospect push, but the Arraez injection gave us the ability to flip Salas or to use Martin if his stock is still high enough. Now what does this actually do? It puts another quality starter in the rotation and allows for a 6 man setup to keep all the recovering dudes in the game for an extra inning. That also releases some of the pressure on the bully to add much more WAR (even if there is talent in the system to do it.) It also pairs C4 with a top fielding DP partner who can hit a little bit. Rather than the pretty OK fielding good hitter in Polo. What about Polo? Oh yeah, he's the Primary DH, but he rotates in to 2nd and 3rd along with Farmer to keep all legs fresh. That keeps his primary skill (hitting) in the lineup a lot while combatting his primary deficit (sore legs). These two players are projected to be worth 5 wins between them in Coors. Playing at Target will flip that a little, but while Rogers will come down, Marquez will go up. Almost there. And we didn't even add much salary. About 11 Mil all told. Right at our budget. [49.6] 3 - The last move. We're close to Max budget. We still need 2.9 wins to catch the Yankees. We've burned through almost all the prospect capital we're comfortable with. All the spots on the field are currently taken by MLB contracts. That's right. We're going to trade Max Kepler. To get where we need to go, the net result has to be almost 4 wins, since Max was projected to be worth 1.9 on his own. Well, so much of Max's Value is in him playing Right Field so well. Lucky for the Twins they signed his replacement already. Gallo is actually more valuable in right than left since his major plus is in his arm and range is good enough. Gallo projects to be a better value in right by .5 more win. That allows us Nick Gordon in Left where he can provide +value on both sides of the ball. he put up 1.5 last year in part time play so we'll figure he can do that again over a full year. Max's value is full on replaced with current staff. So who are we trading him for? Who knows. But a good reliever. Maybe Jalen Beeks in Tampa or Dylan Floro in Miami. Add .75 more wins to the pen over such edge guys as Coulombe or Megill. But the real value would be in freeing the roster spot for the rookie batter who would spot start and get hot to the tune of 1.5 wins. My gut says it's Julien in a super utility role. [52.1] OK I lied. They probably can't catch the Yankees in projected WAR, but they can get right up there with reasonable moves. Although I will say that Winder for Taylor thing is a good one they should do, too. He would be miles better than Celly in that role.

With the addition of Lopez, they've got enough to grind it out. If not for their bad luck against CLE (1-9 in 1 run games VS CLE) last year they'd have won the division. I don't see CLE getting worse, but they aren't really 'better' than the Twins. Outside their head to head matchups, the Twins were 72-71. CLE was 79-64. That includes the garbage time period from Sep 20th where they went 5-9 against such good opposition as KCR, DET and CHW. The Twins were ahead until the very end when the injuries to the rotation finally beat them. Plus, I don't see them going 0-10 against Houston and the Dodgers again. How fluky is that? even 3-7 leaves them at .500. Obviously, I wouldn't change any of it now, since they were too depleted to participate in the post season anyway. They literally did in two weeks what a bunch of franchises built their season around (tanking for the draft lottery) and got a big pick jump. Carlos re-signed and they deepened their pitching. All in all pretty good. The team is definitely better on paper than the squad they put out there last year, so yeah, I think they should win the division. That being said, no reason to pick them on a poll.

Assuming his wrist works, Kiriloff is far and away the better hitter. He has the skills to win a batting title, but with actual meat in it. Think 320/390/450 kind of guy. Twice as many homes and more doubles than luis. And no need to make provisos about his D at first. That potential alone is worth the risk of trading Arraez for pitching.

On the right contract he'd be a good add. But I think the Jo Adell idea floated elsewhere is the better play. Has a chance to blow the doors off on value, but won't be an expensive misfire if he flounders. Profar is a great example though of misunderstanding the OPS+ and WRC+ 100 scale. 100 Doesn't mean 'acceptable'. It means exactly league average. League average for MLB is top 10% (at least) of all baseball players on the planet. So a player who can OPS+ at 90 is 10% less than league average. It doesn't mean 'bad'. Profar is a slightly below average hitter, with lots of positional flexibility. I do question his rostering when he cant play center, though. I'm more into that potential match with KC on Michael A Taylor.

It definitely says a lot about PR's actual baseball knowledge when he credits Terry Ryan with the 2-8 scale. The rest of it is equally lazy.

So if the key to getting Trout on the team is Lewis you say no? Alcantarra? Ohtani? Lewis is a potentially good bat corner outfielder now, at least for the Twins. I hope he solidifies Left Field and becomes a star out there, but if someone came knockin with a great offer I'd have to say let's talk...

I enjoyed watching Arraez and am glad he had his career year with the Twins. I hope he has a solid MLB career hitting 275-320 with 15 doubles and 6 homers. While I'd have preferred a second pitcher, creating more depth to the MilB system opens up a path to trade elsewhere for more. Maybe now they feel more comfortable sending Brooks Lee for a tip-top starter. Perhaps another deal can even be made with Miami. They still need league average hitting. Might they like to try a whole new outfield of Gordon, Larnach and Kepler?

It's wild that in 2023 MLB and the cable industry still prefer that piracy is the best option for customers. Not even with just price, but features and access. I've had both MLB.TV and Cable and yet I still need two apps on my apple TV to access them. So daft.

Because Joey Gallo has been worth 54 runs above average offensively for his career (including last year's -6). Last year was a total disaster for him, you bet. But his trend is generally very good. The projections have him listed as a 1.2-1.5 win player, but that's because they all seem to agree that he's suddenly not going to be able to field his position. If he puts in the D that's been the norm for his career, he creeps up to a 2.5 win player. If he hits like 2021 (ancient history) he's a 4 win player. That's the idea behind Gallo. You're free to disagree that any of it is actually possible, but now you know the idea behind it. Nick Gordon was worse in 2021 than Gallo was in 2022. Yet here we are in 2023 saying that Gordon is the guy we have to find room for. Never mind His projections for 2023 are worse than Gallo's. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gordon sent out to a team who has their own projections rating him higher. Maybe the Yankees would prefer Gordon to Kepler. Or he could be the ceremonial piece in the purchase of a prospect and high priced veteran like Sale and Marcello Mayer (hee hee).

Arraez went to first because it was the last hope of a position he wasn't a butcher at. Turns out he did pretty good at it and has upended the depth chart a little. The reason I'm in favor of trading him this offseason is because it was after an up year. His value is going to careen all over because he has limited extra base potential and isn't fast. MLB RN has Arraez as the 9th best 1B, which is pretty good, but also means he wouldn't be THAT hard to replace, since to be a top 1B you need power. https://www.mlb.com/stories/mlb-now-s-top-10-first-basemen-right-now Just Lopez seems like it's not worth the trouble, though. Now imagine some sort of 3 team deal that involves Arraez, Kep and 4 or 5 of your favorite prospects not named Royce Lewis (cuz he's hurt and Correa likes him) or Miranda (Correa adopted him) heading off to Pittsburgh and Miami, returning to the Twins: Cabrera, Luzardo and Bryan Reynolds. That would be a trade worth sending Arraez out for. Luis is good. He's just the most replaceable good player on the roster. But no sense in replacing him with someone only as good or even a little less so.

I feel like this whole 'trade starters off a 1st place ball club' discourse is a cousin to 'win a playoff game and we'll talk'. It's simply bananas to think that there is any scenario where a first place ball club trades any valuable pitcher. If a pitcher in that scenario gets traded it's from the DFA line. That seems likely to be Pagan's fate this year as some of these young fellas will be putting up good numbers at CHS. And in every offseason until Correa's 6 main years are up, the FO better be trading like they're a 1st place ball club. Prospects and vets who have been replaced out for quality vets who raise the floor and the ceiling. Right now, the projections have the twins at 84-86 wins. That might seem a little steep to the half empty crowd, but remember that the Pythag last year was 80-82. That was with negative contributions at catcher, corner OF and middle relief. Technically, two of those have been addressed with +WAR and the loss in WAR from losing Gio seems to be covered with full season Miranda and Farmer. Adding Lopez at the cost of Arraez is a wash or even negative, if you don't see Kiriloff or Wallner or whoever as able to cover that margin.

Polanco and it's not close.

I like it. Jo and Larnach can do a 50/50 until Lewis comes back.

And we've settled onto why it's best to trade him and let someone else deal with that instability. Unfortunately also why it will take more than him to get a big return.

I mean Arraez is only 25. But I understand my word choice has been confusing. We'll say that Arraez has potential to be a lot better.

1. Batting titles are dum. They don't really measure much other than you got to first base a lot. At a minimum the "batting title" should be OPS. Heck it's a much bigger number anyway! 2. Arraez is not Tony Gwynn by any measure other than both were/are charismatic, athletically challenged guys who could put the bat to the ball. Tony struck out half as much over his whole career and even though he was known as a 'singles hitter' has a bunch more ISO than Luis. Arraez is the perfect headliner in a trade because you're trading the hope he could maybe if things go right be almost someone you could mention in the same breath as Tony Gwynn. There's value in possibility. Maybe even 6+ years of controlable pitching (Luzardo and Cabrera, plz). Replace Lewis with Arraez and you might be on to something. Most likely, the Fish would like Arraez and some other prospects for even Lopez. Because projectable pitching is much more valuable than the kind of hitting Arraez does. Arrazed for Lopez 1-1 is slanted in favor of the Twins and Lopez really isn't that much better than who we already have. But he would be more of it, so still a good get.

Yep. You can't possibly think that people are clamoring to acquire Arraez based on the idea that 2022 was the end of the road up? Maybe we understand the concept of prospects a little differently. He's graduated off the MLB Pipeline list, sure, but he's still prospectively a great hitter. As in he's currently got one pretty good skill, and showed some potential for continued growth. What folx would be trading for is the projection that Arraez will keep adding OPS the way John Olerud or Mark Grace did. Otherwise, he's just not that valuable. His WAR outlook hinges on his ISO. Will it be .100+ or around .080? As you can see in his career, that's been the real difference maker. If he can make that .120-.130, he's a bonafide superstar hitter. Most guys need to get that closer to .3 to be nearly as good. But that's still in the realm of projection. Ergo, my statement that he's technically still a prospect.