Ted Wiedmann

If Joey Gallo could remotely handle third base he’d still be there. As for Farmer he has a career 72 wRC+ in R/R matchups, the twins would be smart to avoid those at all costs. If Miranda has to miss significant time they probably call someone up but if it’s only a short timespan to fill it wouldn’t make sense to burn an option on a prospect. That’s where Gordon makes the most sense imo. In a small sample his offensive production will greatly outweigh any defensive liability at a non premium position.

He lasted about half a season there in Texas and it wasn’t pretty

Nick Gordon has played all over the infield and outfield, but somehow only has a total of six innings at third base in his MLB career. If he's pressed into duty there, can the Twins trust him? Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports The Minnesota Twins have clearly emphasized building depth both on the Major League bench and in the minor leagues. However, there is potentially one position at which the Twins could be thin heading into the 2023 season. After trading Gio Urshela and Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda and Kyle Farmer are the only two players on the 40-man roster with significant Big League third-base experience. (Joey Gallo doesn't count.) Miranda figures to play every day at third, but who will man the position on off days or if an IL stint is in his future? Kyle Farmer has the defensive capability to play the hot corner, but offensively the Twins would like him to see as few at-bats against right-handed pitching as possible. Fortunately, there might be one more option for the Twins. Nick Gordon is no stranger to being thrust into unfamiliar positions so far in his career. Coming up as a middle infielder, he was thrown in the outfield as a necessity in 2021 and 2022. The results have been mixed, but overall I think he's been passable. Could he be a left-handed hitting platoon option at third base for Minnesota, as Adam Friedman suggested? Using defensive metrics to evaluate Gordon's infield defense is tough because he hasn't played much infield in his big league career, but let's try anyways. He has played only 151 innings at shortstop and 368 innings at second base, compared to over 950 innings in the outfield. DRS (defensive runs saved) has been quite unfavorable for Gordon. For his career, he has netted -2 DRS at second base. At shortstop, he has totaled -3 DRS. OAA (outs above average) sees Gordon as an average defensive infielder registering 0 OAA at second base and shortstop. Given the small sample, these numbers will need to be taken with a grain of salt. As a prospect rising through the ranks, scouts were always doubtful about Gordon's ability to stick at shortstop due to his lack of arm strength; that might be seen as a potential problem at third base. Using Statcast's arm strength metrics, we can see how Gordon's arm compares to the rest of the league in the infield, particularly at third base. To measure arm strength, the velocity of the top 5% of throws is taken from a player to find their "average" arm strength. We will only be using Gordon's throws from second base, as throws from the outfield are entirely different than ones in the infield. At second base, Nick Gordon's arm strength is measured at 83.5 mph. At second base, 83.5 mph ranks 8th in all of baseball among players that made 100 throws at second base. At shortstop, 83.5 would have ranked 31st out of 60 players that made at least 100 throws. But to answer the question, would his arm play at third base? At third base, 83.5 mph would have been the 28th highest average velocity among 59 third baseman. He is right in the middle of the pack, but it should be noted that most players above Gordon are everyday third baseman, and most below him are utility men, like Gordon is. Statcast's arm strength measurements aren't perfect. Many variables go into the type of throws that are made at different positions along the infield that are hard to quantify in one statistic. However, it does give us an idea that if Nick Gordon needs to fill in at third base to give Jose Miranda a day off or even play in a platoon role for a short-term injury, this is a solution the Twins could pursue. Given his athleticism and metrics at second base and shortstop, range should be good enough for Gordon at third. While the arm might not be ideal, it certainly looks passable enough for Nick Gordon to expand his versatility and help the Twins at third base this season and in the future. View full article

57 wRC+ R/R last season and 72 wRC+ for his career, either way not great. Very Mike Zunino-ish...

This winter, the Twins picked up some sneaky good bats versus southpaws. Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Adding a right-handed bat has been a talking point for the Minnesota Twins all off-season. They somewhat addressed it by trading for Michael A Taylor, who hits right-handed but doesn't hit left-handed pitching exceptionally. With five left-handed hitters currently on the 26-man and switch hitter Jorge Polanco being better from the left side, this might be an issue for the Twins. Fortunately, I think this weakness might be overstated. Of the five left-handed hitters projected to get significant playing time, only two have a clear need for a platoon partner - Nick Gordon (career 54 wRC+ vs. LHP) and Max Kepler (career 73 wRC+ vs. LHP). Of the remaining hitters, Joey Gallo was abysmal against left-handers last season (23 wRC+ in 2022) but has handled them well throughout his career (104 wRC+ vs. LHP). Both Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff have even splits between lefties and righties, albeit small samples. The Twins should see if either former top prospect can hit southpaws at the Major League level before condemning them to platoon roles. Given some big-time moves this off-season, it would be easy to forget the Twins' first acquisition, Kyle Farmer. Perhaps it was undersold as a skill, but Farmer is one of the best hitters in baseball against left-handed pitchers. In 2022, per FanGraphs, among hitters with 150 plate appearances versus left-handers, Farmer ranked 13th with a 157 wRC+ (ahead of Trea Turner, whom Tony La Russa intentionally walked in a 1-2 count vs. a lefty), 7th with a .948 OPS, 7th in wOBA at .404, and 9th in batting average at .309. There is a very strong case that Kyle Farmer is one of the ten best hitters in all of baseball versus left-handed pitching. So what would a potential lefty-killing lineup look like for the Twins? I mentioned that Kyle Farmer might be a top 10 hitter against lefties, but they also have two other hitters on that list in Byron Buxton (159 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2022) and Carlos Correa (168 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2022). If he had enough plate appearances, Ryan Jeffers would also be on there (161wRC+ vs. LHP in 2022). Against a left-handed starter, a potential lineup could be: Byron Buxton CF 159 wRC+ vs. LHP Carlos Correa SS 168 wRC+ vs. LHP Kyle Farmer 2B 157 wRC+ vs. LHP Jose Miranda 3B 132 wRC+ vs. LHP Alex Kirilloff 1B 99 wRC+ vs. LHP (career) Ryan Jeffers DH 161 wRC+ vs. LHP Joey Gallo RF 104 wRC+ vs. LHP Christian Vazquez C 130 wRC+ vs. LHP Trevor Larnach LF 108 wRC+ vs. LHP (career) The Twins' front office has also stated Farmer could see some time in the outfield. You could sub out either corner outfielder for Jorge Polanco (career 93 wRC+ vs. LHP), move Farmer to the outfield, and move Polanco to 2B. Michael A Taylor was also left off this lineup but figures to see most of his plate appearances against lefties. If the Twins wanted to DH Buxton or not have two catchers in the lineup, Taylor slides into CF. Taylor could also play in either corner outfield spot and spell any left-handed bats in the lineup. He would be a one-for-one swap in either LF or RF, but if Kirilloff needs a rest day, Gallo can cover 1B for that day. If things start to fall apart, the Twins also have Kyle Garlick stashed in AAA, who's made a name for himself mashing lefties. The front office certainly thought that a right-handed bat would be useful, being mentioned with names like Yuli Gurriel, A.J. Pollock, and Andrew McCutchen . Still, I feel good about the current roster construction's ability to hit left-handed pitching and don't see this as something that needs to be addressed. View full article

They’re projected the 4th highest bullpen war on Fangraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=RP

He was the only player the Twins acquired at the trade deadline that was effective. He's also still a free agent, but he is not without red flags. Image courtesy of © Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports The Minnesota Twins bullpen is filling out nicely, projected as a top-five unit by some systems. They have arguably the best relief pitcher in all of baseball in Jhoan Duran and a strong supporting cast behind him, but there is plenty of noise that the Twins add one more right-handed reliever to fill out the bullpen. A popular candidate to re-sign for that last spot is one of their 2022 trade acquisitions, Michael Fulmer. Fulmer was solid for the Twins in the back half of the season, claiming a 3.70 ERA, 4.14 FIP, with a 20.6% K% and 7.5% BB% for Minnesota post-deadline. There has been little noteworthy reporting on a potential landing spot for Fulmer this offseason. Would a reunion in MN make sense for the right-hander? Fulmer sits in the mid-90s with his fastball, but his calling card is his slider. Throwing it more than 60% of the time and averaging over 90 MPH, the pitch laid waste to right-handed hitters, as Fulmer held them to a .188/.287/.257 slash line in 2022. However, as devastating as he is to right-handers, he was quite the opposite versus left-handed hitters. Allowing a .337/.404/.526 slash line, this extreme platoon split limits Fulmer’s value, as he is only useful against one side of the plate. Fulmer toes a very fine line of success. His strikeout rate is just under league average (45th percentile), and he does a good job of limiting hard contact (61st percentile HardHit%), but walks were a problem for Fulmer in 2022. His 10.1% BB% was the 20th percentile, and while you can be an excellent reliever with a high walk rate, it is difficult to do so while missing bats at a below-league-average level. I believe Fulmer allows too many free passes to consistently rely on the variance of balls in play to be a sustainably reliable relief pitcher in the future. In addition to his struggles commanding the strike zone, Fulmer is starting to see deterioration in his pitch arsenal. Fulmer saw his pitch velocities decline by more than a mile per hour for all four of his pitches. The thing that concerns me the most is what happened to his slider. In addition to losing velocity, it started to lose movement. According to Baseball Savant, from 2021 to 2022, his slider lost more than an inch of horizontal break and an inch of vertical break. Given how often he throws this pitch and how critical it is for his success, declining speed and movement on his slider is extremely concerning moving forward. For a pitcher that is going to rely on soft contact for outs while also not throwing a lot of strikes, seeing their best pitch starting to slip is a red flag. I’m not opposed to re-signing Fulmer, but it would be a risky bet, and it would have to be a low-cost signing. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Twins decided to fill that final bullpen spot with one of their relief prospects instead of Fulmer. Whether it’s Cole Sands, Ronny Henriquez, Trevor Megill, or another option, it’s not an unreasonable bet that the Twins can generate Fulmer’s value as a righty specialist elsewhere View full article

The St. Louis Cardinals non-tendered their once top prospect; since then, there has been little news regarding Alex Reyes. The former all-star has seen a lack of reported interest so far in free agency and could be a fit for any team looking for relief help, meaning every team. There are several reasons to and not to sign Alex Reyes. I want to examine his current outlook to see if he is a fit for the Minnesota Twins. Feature Image Via Jeff Curry - USA Today Sports The first thing you notice about Alex Reyes when you look at his career is injuries, injuries, injuries. And more injuries. Health has not been a blessing Reyes’ has received in his career and was likely the reason the Cardinals gave up on him. Reyes crossed the 20-inning threshold just twice in his career, in 2016 and 2021. Most recently, he missed all of 2022 due to a shoulder injury. His injuries prior to 2021 didn’t seem to impact his stuff much, but every injury is different. It is unknown whether or not he can be the same pitcher he was two years ago. Given his health track record, it is more likely he doesn’t pitch at all than he gives you innings, and it is very valid that teams are concerned about this. The other major concern with Alex Reyes is his control. His raw stuff can compare with the best in baseball but where it’s going is a different story. In his lone full season in 2021, he had the second-highest BB% and second-highest BB/9 in all of baseball. He also had 10 wild pitches in 2021, which would have ranked fifth among qualified starting pitchers. Alex Reyes, a reliever, pitched over 100 fewer innings than his counterparts in that category. His command issues track back to his early minor league days, so it’s likely this problem never goes away. So what about the good stuff? He walks everyone, and we have one season to base our entire case to bring him in; what’s the upside? As mentioned before, Reyes was an all-star in 2021, and for good reason. According to Baseball Savant, he was 95th percentile in xBA, 94th percentile in xSLG, 91st percentile in Barrel%, 95th percentile in whiff%, and 87th percentile in K%. Reyes is effective against both left-handed and right-handed hitters as well. Versus lefties, he had a .155 batting average against and a 26.9% K%; versus righties, he had a .195 batting average against and a 33.1 K%. He served as the Cardinals’ primary closer and recorded 29 saves for a team that won 90 games. His fastball routinely crests triple digits, but I want to focus on his best pitch, his slider. Reyes has maybe the best slider in all of baseball. In 2021, among pitchers with 100 PA against, his slider generated the lowest RV/100 (run value per 100 pitches*) in all of baseball at -3.8, just ahead of Jacob deGrom. It finished top ten in batting average against (3rd .089), SLG against (9th .222), wOBA against (7th .196), swing and miss% (2nd 55.8%), and K% (2nd 56.9%). This is one of the most devastating pitches in all of baseball. Alex Reyes is about as big of a risk as you can take on a player. With his persistent command issues and colossal injury history, this could blow up as much as any reliever signing could (shoutout Joel Zumaya). Fortunately, Reyes isn’t set to make much, his arbitration projection, according to MLB Trade Rumors, was just under three million, so a one-year deal for two to three million would make sense. If the Twins were to pull this off, they would likely have a second-year option attached to it. Reyes might have the best stuff out of any Twins reliever, including Jhoan Duran. If Alex Reyes can stay healthy, he could be one of the most dominant relievers in Major League Baseball. *Run Value: http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/article/run-values-by-pitch-count

With Kyle Garlick being dfa'd and Gilberto Celestino being far from reliable, who should the Minnesota Twins have as their bench outfielder? Free agent options such as A.J. Pollock and Andrew McCutchen have signed elsewhere; options are becoming thin for the Twins. Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham are available, but both are 34 years old and could be nearing the end of their time in the Big Leagues. I want to look at one option still in-house that could fill this role for 2023 that would be a practical choice for Minnesota; Max Kepler. Cover Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images Yes, I am aware that Kepler hits left-handed. However, Kepler held his own against lefties in 2022; he had a 98 wRC+ in left-on-left matchups. I don't think a right-handed bat is as big of a need as the presumption is; Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Ryan Jeffers, and Jose Miranda should all serve as plus bats against left-handed pitching. It seems inevitable that the Twins will trade Kepler this offseason, but if they don't, there is no reason he can't be a very serviceable outfielder off the bench. Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Byron Buxton have all missed significant time the last two seasons due to injuries, so the Twins should be cautious to pencil in any of those guys for 150+ games. Kepler provides elite defense in RF, amassing a very impressive 46 DRS (defensive runs saved) and 51 OAA (outs above average) throughout his career; he should be comparable in LF as well. Kepler has also held his own in CF throughout his career. In just over 1,100 innings in CF, he has recorded 2 DRS and 8 OAA in his time there. Certainly a few steps below Buxton, but nobody is at that level. The frustration with Kepler from Twins fans has not come from his defense. Many point to a low batting average as a sign that Kepler has been an underwhelming hitter, but I do not believe that is the case. While not reaching the heights his batted ball data would suggest he is capable of, Kepler gives value in other ways at the plate. He borders on having both elite plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. This shows with Kepler ranking in the 88th percentile in K% and 84th percentile in BB% in 2022. He was also tied with Yordan Alvarez for 17th in BB/K rate among hitters with 400 plate appearances. Kepler could make some batted-ball adjustments as well. According to Statcast, in 2022, Kepler's ground ball% was 46.6% (league average 44.9%), a massive 8.9% jump from 37.7% in 2021. His flyball% dropped to 24.5%, down from 28.1% in 2021 (league average 23.1%), his lowest flyball% since 2017. As I'm sure you are familiar, Kepler is a very pull heavy hitter, ranking in the 74th percentile in pull% among hitters with 250 plate appearances in 2022 despite this being his lowest pull% since 2017. Unfortunately pulling ground balls is one of the least effective ways to get hits. In 2019, Kepler had his second-lowest career ground ball% at 35.9% and his highest career flyball% at 29.8%; if Kepler starts hitting the ball in the air again instead of on the ground, there may be a lot more room for improvement. I don't think Kepler should be a middle-of-the-order hitter, but that's what he has been for the last few years on the Twins. In part because of a career year in 2019 and in part due to necessity because of injuries. Throughout his Major League career, Kepler has taken over two-thirds of his plate appearances in one of the top 5 spots in the lineup despite being only a 101 wRC+ hitter. If Kepler is hitting seventh or eighth in the lineup, he is a much better fit. Even last season, a down year by almost all metrics, Kepler finished with a 95 wRC+, five percent worse than the league average. It is important to mention injuries got to him as well, as he put up a 116 wRC+ in the first half of the season and a 33 wRC+ in the second half, where he was playing much of it through foot and wrist injuries. Kepler can consistently put together quality at-bats and is very capable of hard contact; this makes for an ideal fit for a bench player who can play every day if (when) someone gets injured. I want to touch on a very underrated part of Kepler's game; his base running. Only once in his career has Kepler had a negative BsR season by Fangraphs, and it was in 2019 when he had his best season at the plate. I do think there is more base-stealing upside for Kepler. Although he only has 33 career stolen bases, hitting more toward the bottom of the lineup could make him more willing to run. He will not have hitters like Nelson Cruz or Carlos Correa hitting behind him, making the risk of stealing less penalizing. He does have 64th percentile sprint speed and stole ten bases in 2021. Under the right conditions, I think he has 20 SB potential. In totality, it seems that it is only a matter of time until Max Kepler is no longer a Twin. Still, it is worth considering the possibility of reducing his role and hanging onto him. For one, he is already under contract for 7 million, the same amount as A.J. Pollock received and only two million more than Andrew McCutchen. Kepler is a much better player than either of those two at this point in their careers. He has a team option for 10 million in 2024 as well. Kepler has been a remarkably consistent player year to year for the Twins, never having a season below 2.0 fWAR and never having a season below 93 wRC+. For reference, Nick Gordon impressed many people last year but only put up 1.5 fWAR in 2022. While frustrations have grown watching him hit in the middle of a lineup undeservingly, it's not fair to fault Kepler for that. If he can serve as a fourth outfielder and hit more toward the bottom of the lineup, I think Kepler still has a place on the Minnesota Twins this year and next. If they can land a good return for him, the front office will not hesitate to pull the trigger, but they shouldn't treat him as a salary dump. He isn't making very much, and he still has a skillset to help a team win games.

Given the copious injuries the Minnesota Twins dealt with last season, one player that was given as ample an opportunity as anyone was center fielder Gilberto Celestino. Unfortunately, he did not exactly take advantage of it, however, it wasn’t a complete failure either. While the season for Celestino probably didn’t go as well as he or the Twins would have hoped, there were positives to take from it. What is the outlook for Celestino going forward? An everyday player? Maybe a platoon player? Strictly a fourth outfielder? Or maybe not even a Major Leaguer? Let’s look at where things currently stand and what could impact his role going forward. Let’s start with the most known positive attributes about Celestino. He is still very young and has room for growth, but these are things I feel confident about remaining consistent throughout his career. The first and most apparent quality about Gilberto Celestino is his defense. I believe Celestino is a plus defender in center field and an elite defender in the corners. In 2022 Celestino finished in the 79th percentile in OAA (Outs Above Average) among qualified center fielders and graded above average by DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) at 2 and slightly above average by UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) at 0.3. While Celestino has above-average range in the outfield (0.9 Range Runs Above Average), his primary defensive asset is his arm strength. Celestino has one of the strongest outfield arms in all of baseball; according to Statcast, he finished in the 93rd percentile among qualified outfielders in average arm strength and recorded the third-fastest throw of any player in 2022 at 102.3 MPH. The other thing I feel confident about Celestino going forward is his plate discipline. In 2022 Celestino ranked in the 86th percentile in chase% and 63rd percentile in BB%. Now, this may be a bit misleading as Celestino generally doesn’t swing very often. His swing% is under league average at 44.5% (league avg 47.1%), his first pitch swing % is 25.9% (league avg 29.5%), and his meatball swing% is only 69.1% (league average 76.1%). For some context, a meatball is a pitch that touches the middle box of the standard nine-box zone, meaning he takes almost one-third of pitches right down the middle. However, Celestino’s Z-swing% is almost right at league average at 65.7% (league average 66.9%), so while he may trend passive, I think the discipline numbers are real since he seems to swing at pitches in the zone as much as everyone else. We also saw his plate discipline in the minor leagues, as he consistently posted above-league-average walk rates throughout his MiLB career. I believe drawing walks will stick for Gilberto Celestino. Let’s look at some things Gilberto Celestino isn’t very good at. Last season Gilberto Celestino was allergic to hitting the ball hard. According to Statcast, he finished the year in the 18th percentile in average exit velocity, 4th percentile in xwOBA, 6th percentile in barrel% (EV of 98 MPH or higher), and 1st percentile in xSLG. If you are familiar with Baseball Savant, that is a lot of blue. If you are into more traditional numbers, this shows in his .238 batting average, .302 SLG, and 15 extra base hits in 347 PA, all functions of quality of contact. I also want to point out his average launch angle was -1.9 degrees, and his GB% as a hitter was 60.6%; the MLB average GB% is 44.9%. While in isolation, soft contact doesn’t inherently make you a bad hitter (see Luis Arraez). In isolation, hitting lots of ground balls doesn’t inherently make you a bad hitter (see DJ LeMahieu). Combining the two isn’t typically a good recipe for quality hitting. So while drawing lots of walks is good, Celestino will have to make some adjustments at the plate if he doesn’t want to be hitting soft ground balls all the time. This does not mean he is destined to be a bad hitter. Celestino has a max exit velocity of 111.4 MPH, good for the 80th percentile in 2021. He has shown the capability for power, and it’s just a matter of translating that more consistently throughout his at-bats. The last thing I want to touch on with Gilberto Celestino is his base running. On the surface, nothing stands out about Celestino’s base running abilities, four stolen bases in five attempts is fine, and he ranks in the 65th percentile in sprint speed on Statcast. The conclusion, without further research, is there isn’t a problem here. Unfortunately, that is not the case. Gilberto Celestino is one of the worst base runners in all of baseball. The Twins, as a whole, were 29th in baseball in BsR with -20.7 runs, just ahead of the Washington Nationals, who were at -25.1 runs. The league average is zero. Baserunning Runs (BsR) is a metric from Fangraphs that measures runs generated from stolen bases (wSB), double plays (wGDP), and taking extra bases (UBR). Celestino certainly was a part of the Twins’ malodorous performance in this category, with his BsR finishing at -4.6, third worst on the Twins despite having more than 100 fewer plate appearances than the four players closest to him. His stolen base runs were 0.0, and his wGDP runs were -1.3, but we already touched on his propensity to hit ground balls, so I think that can explain his negative value there. I want to focus on his UBR, ultimate base running. This statistic measures a player’s ability to take bases in practical situations like going first to third on a single, tag-ups, advancing as the trail runner, avoiding outs, and other situations. I will link a definition page at the bottom. Among players with 300 plate appearances in 2022, Gilberto Celestino was tied for the 19th-lowest UBR score. For some context, he finished tied with Joey Votto, a 39-year-old first baseman. Celestino’s inability to use his speed on the bases can be partially credited to his youth, and hopefully more game experience can help his problem, but some guys never figure it out. Still, if he wants to stay around in the Big Leagues, he will have to improve in this area of the game. Being a genuinely good center fielder is a great building block for Celestino, but you cannot be a one-trick pony in the Major Leagues. He will need to either find a way to hit the ball harder more consistently or take advantage of his high walk rate and become a plus base runner (or both ideally) if he wants to be an impact player. Celestino is only 23 years old, so he will have time before the Twins make any significant decisions on his future, but if Cele wants to hang around The Show, he has some work to do. What do you think of Gilberto Celestino? What do you see his role being in not only 2023 but beyond? OAA: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/outs-above-average DRS: https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/drs/ UZR: https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/uzr/ Z-Swing%: https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/plate-discipline/ xwOBA:https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-woba#:~:text=Definition,of%20batted%20balls%2C%20Sprint%20Speed. xSLG:https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-slugging-percentage#:~:text=Definition,of%20batted%20balls%2C%20Sprint%20Speed. BsR, wSB, wGDP, UBR: https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/bsr/ RngR (Per Fangraphs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity.

The Minnesota Twins recently signed Willi Castro to a minor league contract. He will not be the opening day shortstop, he likely won’t make the team, and in a perfect world, he probably never sees the Big Leagues in 2023. Having experienced a very not perfect 2022, Castro provides depth in several positions and has some intriguing skills worth noting. While digging, I found some interesting things about Castro that I would like to share and found him a more familiar player than I initially thought. Feature Image via Tom Hagerty So far in his career, Willi Castro has not been a very productive Major League Baseball player. Through just over 300 games and 1,000 plate appearances, he is slashing .245/.292/.381 (.673 OPS) with a 4.7% BB%, 24.1% K%, 86 wRC+, and -22 total DRS (defensive runs saved) at six different positions through 2,338 innings and 1.6 fWAR. Not to be redundant, but he has been relatively unimpressive so far, hence why he was DFA’d from the Detroit Tigers and could only land a minor league contract. So why would the Twins invest? For starters, minor league contracts carry almost zero risk, meaning if the Twins cut him halfway through the season, there are no negative consequences. Castro is a switch hitter who has been significantly better against left-handed pitching (career .711 OPS vs. LHP - .658 OPS vs. RHP). The Twins have been searching for more effective bats against left-handed pitchers, and he has Major League experience at six positions: 2B, SS, 3B, and all three outfield spots. In addition, Castro also has some eye-catching athleticism metrics. Per Statcast, his max exit velocity for his career is 115.4 MPH, which was the 95th percentile in 2021. Statcast registered his sprint speed in 2022 as the 78th percentile, and his arm strength scored in the 87th percentile, with his hardest throw hitting 97.0 MPH. Can you think of any Twins players that sound familiar to Willi Castro? The player that came to my mind is Danny Santana. Both players entered the Big Leagues with a bang, but their teams eventually moved on after both players failed to repeat their hot start. Santana bounced around in the Minor Leagues and resurfaced as a utility man with another breakout season in 2019 but was largely unproductive outside 2014 and 2019. Castro was exceptional in 2020 but has been relatively unproductive since and is following Santana’s footsteps by trying to survive in the Majors as a utility man. He logged about 800 more plate appearances than Castro, but their career numbers are similar in certain areas. Here are some statistics that are very close for Castro and Santana: (Castro) (Santana) OBP: .292 .296 BB%: 4.7% 4.8% K%: 24.1% 25.6% wRC+: 86 85 xwOBA (League avg .316): .296 .290 Z-Swing % (League avg 66.9%): 75.0% 74.5% O-Swing% % (League avg 28.4%): 39.8% 36.9% Swing % (League avg 47.1%): 56.7% 55.3% Whiff % (League avg 24.7%): 29.2% 29.7% DRS at SS: -13 (696 Innings) -15 (918 Innings) Sprint Speed: 78th percentile (2022) 74th percentile (2021) Arm Strength: 87th percentile (2022) 96th percentile (2021) What stands out about these numbers? The similarities between the two players are plate discipline and bat-to-ball ability. These players are free-swinging, low-walk, medium strikeout hitters with good raw power that hasn’t entirely translated into game power, likely due to plate discipline or approach reasons. They also compare similarly as athletes and defensively at shortstop. So how do they differ as players? Castro and Santana utilize their athleticism quite differently. Santana, throughout his career, has two different 20 stolen base seasons and has a 75/101 (74.3% success rate); Castro has only stolen 18 bases and is 18/28 (64.2% success rate) in his career. Santana also hit for a little more power than Castro has so far; Santana’s career SLG is .413, Castro at .381 with ISO (SLG minus BA, league avg .183) saying the same; Santana at .159 and Castro at .136. Castro has had his athletic abilities translate more to the defensive side of the ball. While neither player stuck at SS, Willi Castro has turned himself into a viable defensive option in the outfield, something Santana never quite got to. DRS (0), UZR (0.1), and OAA (-1) all agree that through 724 innings, Castro is about a league-average outfielder. They are less conclusive on Santana but overall are low, totaling 1945 innings, with DRS having him at -7, UZR at -1.1, and OAA at 1. This move by the Twins carries a negative undertone due to how the offseason has been going so far but try not to let their failure in one area (or player) affect your judgment of Castro. He has some very tantalizing physical tools as well as spurts of success in the Major Leagues, not to mention Detroit is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in all of baseball. A deal with this kind of upside on a minor league contract is good for the Twins. While praising this signing seems contradictory because ideally, he never leaves St. Paul, we will likely see Castro at some point due to his versatility and the inevitability of injuries. Whether or not you are a fan of this move, I hope this nugget was interesting to you in some manner and I look forward to reading your thoughts on Willi Castro. Links and Definitions for some lesser known statistics: xwOBA: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-woba wRC+:https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/weighted-runs-created-plus Z-Swing%, O-Swing%: https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/plate-discipline/ Whiff %: total swings and misses/total swings DRS: https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/drs/ UZR:https://library.fangraphs.com/defense/uzr/ OAA:https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/outs-above-average

It's tough to speculate on coaching adjustments since that information is rarely made public, I couldn't find batted ball numbers for him in college but he has been a pretty heavy pull hitter even in the low minors with the Twins. His batted ball distribution hasn't changed too much throughout his time in the organization. I would bet the increased strikeouts are more from facing better pitcher than anything, but I could be wrong. At least for right now he's still more of a doubles hitter than a home run hitter.

He definetley has a strong arm, probably the best or second best on the team, but Fangraphs has him as a 30 defender in RF. It's tough to evaluate defense in such a small sample but Wallner is also negative DRS, URZ and OAA in almost 140 innings in the OF. I think below average might be an optomisitc outcome for Wallner. It's still too early in his career to throw away his defense but everything we know so far isn't encouraging.

I thought about using Wallner, to me the thing that stops the comp is Wallner is expected to be a below average defender as a corner OF. Larnach for his career so far has been very good and that makes a better comparison to Gallo in my opinion.

In my previous piece I talked about how Alex Kirilloff may fit into the Minnesota Twins’ long term plans and what his outlook could be in the Major Leagues. For this article I want to look at the Twins other touted corner outfield prospect, one who has spent much of his professional career being compared to Kirilloff; Trevor Larnach. Trevor Larnach is another player the Twins likely view as a core piece as they build for 2023 and beyond. Making a name for himself for his refined approach and raw power, Larnach found himself a top 50 prospect in all of baseball and as high as no. 34 on Fangraphs; with some sites ranking him even higher than Alex Kirilloff. It took Larnach only 183 minor league games to get called up to the Majors in 2021 where he showed flashes of that power and developed approach before injury issues started to affect his production; he was ultimately sent down to AAA. 2022 was a similar story for Larnach as he once again had some very encouraging moments before an abdominal injury ended his season in late June. As stated in my previous piece, injuries have a high variance and almost no predictability so I won’t spend much time on them for a future outlook of a player. Although they have been present in Larnach’s career so far their unstable nature offers little help if you are trying to guess a player’s future. Between 2021 and 2022 Larnach has played almost a full season of games, 130 to be exact. It’s not a huge sample but more to work with than some other Twins prospects, so let’s see what we can find when we dig into it. Through 481 plate appearances Larnach is slashing .226/.316/.371 with 12 home runs, 46 RBI, 95 wRC+ and a 1.7 fWAR. Nothing to brag about but solid production to this point. I probably should’ve addressed the title of the article by now but I tend to tangent. In my opinion, Trevor Larnach has a career outlook very similar to Joey Gallo, who the Twins just recently signed. While not as extreme of a three true outcome player, I think there are undeniable parallels in their games that we cannot ignore. Let’s compare some numbers shall we? Larnach: .226/.316/.371, 10.2% BB%, 33.5% K%, 95 wRC+, 12 DRS/1,000 innings, 2.1 fWAR/162 Gallo: .199/.325/.469, 14.8% BB%, 37.3% K%, 110 wRC+, 10 DRS/ 1,000 innings 3.2 fWAR/162 It’s not a perfect match on the surface but when we dig a little deeper the numbers get even more similar. Batted ball data (per Statcast) Larnach: 116 MPH Max exit velocity, 90.0 avg EV, 42.2% hard hit%, 35.4 SwSp% (ball with a batted launch angle between 8 and 32 degrees) Gallo: 117.5 MPH Max exit velocity, 92.5 avg EV, 49.1% hard hit%, 33.3 SwSp% But wait there’s more! Let’s look at their plate discipline numbers: Larnach: 62.3% Z-Swing%, 73.1 Z-Contact%, 25.1 Chase%, 31.7% Chase Contact%, 43.0% Swing%, 39.4% Whiff% Gallo: 69.3% Z-Swing, 67.5% Z-Contact, 24.8% Chase%, 37.1% Chase Contact%, 45.0% Swing%, 41.2% Whiff% It’s important to remember that we are still comparing a very small sample of Trevor Larnach to a very large sample of Joey Gallo so in a year or two this could look ridiculous. However, that being said, when I see the career numbers of both Gallo and Larnach they look like very similar players. They both have tremendous raw power combined with good plate discipline and they both are extremely prone to swing and miss. While Larnach has yet to prove he is capable of batted balls turning into extra base hits (.371 career SLG), he has shown in his young career he consistently finds the barrel and hits the ball hard when he does make contact. Larnach is also a considerably worse athlete than Gallo and is unlikely to provide the defensive or base running upside that Gallo does. However, Larnach is, as traditionalists like to say, a more “pure hitter” than Gallo. His pull% 6.1% lower than Gallo’s and his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .331; Joey Gallo’s career BABIP is .257 making it likely that Larnach will hit for a much higher average. It may not be a perfect one for one comparison between two players, but I think there are enough similarities in Trevor Larnach’s game to Joey Gallo’s that it was noteworthy. I doubt Larnach will ever reach the extremes that Gallo has normalized in his career so if you are not a fan of Gallo I wouldn’t worry too much, I believe there are aspects of Larnach’s play that will prevent him from reaching those anomic heights. What do you think of Trevor Larnach? Is my comparison accurate or am I way off base on this one? Let me know what you think.

Kirilloff is expected to be ready for spring training, whether or not the wrist holds up is another issue but he will definitely play again. My next piece will be on Larnach and how I view him as a player moving forward. Brooks Lee is a college draft pick, not a HS one like Mauer. Spending fewer games in the minor leagues than him wouldn't be unreasonable. I would guess 2024 is more realistic for Lee but if he hits we'll see him sooner rather than later.

He did hit in AAA last season, he actually had his best stretch of MiLB at bats and most encouragingly he doubled his career MiLB BB%. Still needs to prove it in the Big Leagues but I think it's fair to say he's graduated from the minors.

After missing out on a number of big time free agents the Minnesota Twins may now have to rely on some talented, yet very unproven young players in their organization. While there is no doubt more moves are to come from the front office, they have entrusted the future of the franchise into some players they hope can be the core of the team moving forward. I’ve done some research on one specific player that will likely have a big impact on not only 2023 but in the next few years as well, Alex Kirilloff, the very first draft pick of the Thad Levine and Derek Falvey regime, let’s take a deeper dive into why he is viewed as a core piece for years to come for the Minnesota Twins. The sample size in the Major Leagues isn’t very big for Alex Kirilloff, having yet to cross the 400 plate appearance threshold in his career. Despite that, I still think by combining his minor league and Major League numbers we can put together a decent outlook on him. The number one question with Kirilloff is health. Kirilloff has now lost most of three seasons due to elbow surgery and two surgeries on his wrist. There has been a clear decline in his production when the wrist has been bothering him and if this continues to be an issue throughout his career it may be unlikely he ever maximizes his potential. Since injuries are largely unpredictable and unstable year to year I won't spend much time talking about them. Now onto Kirilloff’s on field play. The MLB numbers aren’t particularly impressive to this point but it is important to remember about half of his Major League at bats have come playing through an injury that eventually required surgical repair, twice. Through 387 plate appearances he is slashing .251/.295/.398 with 11 HRs, 55 RBI, 4.9% BB%, 22.7% K% and a 91 wRC+. It is important to remember Kirilloff has hit exceptionally at every level in the minor leagues. Since he graduated rookie ball the lowest wRC+ he posted in the minors was 121 in 2019 in AA. He had a .359/.465/.641 slash line and 192 wRC+ in AAA last season in 157 PA. Despite underwhelming MLB numbers so far Kirilloff has been a top 25 prospect by a number of sites, so many people have been optimistic on his ability to hit. Feature Image via CRAIG LASSIG, ASSOCIATED PRESS I won’t spend much time on his defense or baserunning, I think corner infield and outfield defense is pretty unimpactful, so whether you want to say he is a bad outfielder and a good first baseman or vice versa I don’t believe it will affect his overall value much. Alex Kirilloff will need to hit to be a quality MLB player. I want to focus on the two things that I think will determine his career outcome: his walk rate and his combination of bat to ball skills and raw power. Starting with the bad, Alex Kirilloff has never shown the ability to be a high walk rate player. Throughout his minor league career his BB% fluctuated between 4.7% and 8.5% with an outlier 14.0% in AAA last season. So far in the Majors Kirilloff has a career 4.9% BB% and a .295 OBP. For some context, 4.9% would have been the 8th lowest BB% in baseball among qualified hitters and a .295 OBP would have been 15th lowest, and believe me, the hitters around those marks were not very good. So why is this important? The number of major league hitters that can consistently produce quality hitting seasons despite a low on-base number is extremely small. There are examples of successes: Sal Perez, Javey Baez and we watched Eddie Rosario do it for years. The problem is the dozens of other players that don’t draw walks and simply don’t hit enough to compensate for it. Hitting is volatile by nature and walks can provide stability through slumps to endure cold spells and still be productive. However, we should have hope that Kirilloff can be one of those outliers that can outproduce a low on base. First off, Kirilloff will likely be a low strikeout hitter. His K% in the minors was consistently well below league average, hovering between 14-18%. Kirilloff, despite his low walk rates, has only a slightly above average chase rate. His zone contact rate is about average but in his young career his chase contact rate is more than 4% above league average. He has very good bat to ball skills which fit his prospect profile coming up through the minors. Low strikeout totals can boost your batting average and thus help counter low walk totals. Another way to beat a low walk rate is to consistently outproduce league average BABIP (batting average on balls in play). The two most common ways to do this are to be really fast and hit the ball all over the field like Tim Anderson or Dee Gordon (in his prime), or to hit the ball extremely hard all the time. I don’t think anyone will be mistaking Alex Kirilloff for Dee Gordon so let’s take a look at how hard he hits the ball. Per Statcast, for his career Kirilloff has an average exit velocity of 90.3 mph, well above league average at 88.4 mph. His career barrel% (a batted ball in excess of 98 MPH) sits at 10.2%, well above major league average at 6.7%. While not elite (15% and above) it is certainly a good starting point and it is probably safe to think hitting with an injured wrist probably deflates those numbers significantly. This also shows in his expected batting average (xBA) and expected slugging numbers (xSLG). I referenced his slashline earlier being .251/.295/.398 but if you look at his xBA and xSLG they are .270 and .474 respectively. Basically what this means is Kirilloff has been consistently hitting the ball hard even though it has not been resulting in good stats. From this data we can conclude Kirilloff has either been unlucky throughout his career, or been victimized by the lefty shift. Luck usually regresses to the mean and the shift is going away so we could be optimistic that Kirilloff can produce better than he has shown so far. Because this style of hitting is very erratic there are a wide variety of outcomes that are possible for Alex Kirilloff. The Twins seem to be betting that he can out hit his low walk totals and be more of a Sal Perez/Teoscar Hernandez type hitter rather than a Randall Grichuk/Alec Bohm type hitter. While Kirilloff is clearly talented and has a tremendous ceiling as a player, are Derek Falvey and Thad Levine wise to possibly bet their jobs on him panning out? The fun thing about prospects is that nobody knows what will happen despite all the data and scouting in the world. What do you think? Are you optimistic about Alex Kirilloff?

It's a weird situation, 10/285 doesn't get any of the top SS in this FA class, something they repeatedly said they were in the market for. Maybe the Twins aren't as high on these players as the rest of the league but it doesn't really add up. Maybe there's a longer play here but selling that they're spending big and their best offer doesn't cross 300 million that doesn't make sense to me.

If we miss the playoffs in 2023 for the third year in a row it is not unfair to clean house, but we have a .500 roster with money to spend and a consensus top 10 system, that's a spot a lot of teams would like to be in.

I think it's likely the Yankees tweaked his approach as well. His swing rates spiked as well as his chase rates; my guess is they tried to have him swing earlier in the count to cut down on whiffs and it backfired about as much as possible. If the Twins embrace what he's good at I don't think a bounceback season is that unlikely.