Hunter McCall

I like this idea, especially when rosters expand in September. Could also be possible if one of the guys you mentioned is dominant in AAA. I think we see some of those young guys out of the pen at some point this year with the intention on keeping them starters in the long run.

He can be a headache! Still, to keep him around with the experience he has to take on a lower leverage role, I think he’ll perform adequately.

This is how I see things as well! Thank you for your comment!

Yes, that's the point. By leaving him in that middle relief, low-leverage role, he can be a valuable asset to the team. He was effective there which is why I like that they kept him. I never suggested that I thought he would regain his closer role, just that he found a role he could be successful in last year.

I think the over utilization will be much less of a factor this year for that exact reason. Without Bundy and Archer in the rotation, the Twins have starters that should push to give six innings every day. Plus, I like the depth of the pen much more this year. You’re absolutely right!

I think since he’s been an effective starter and has plenty of team control they want to keep him there. He just doesn’t fit in the rotation to start 2023. That’s why St. Paul is the best place for him to start.

Nice post! Yes, I agree with most everything you said. The Twins did say yesterday they don’t plan to convert any starters to bullpen arms, and expect all of them to build up as starters. I think that’s a good thing as I don’t think any have shown a need to transition to the pen. Jordan Balazovic could be an option if he disappoints again this year, but that would be likely in 2024. There’s a lot more promise to this pen than last year when we had a battle between Alcala and Duffey for the closer job!

Except for the fact that the Twins have 5 guys better than him and he’s coming off a season in which he threw 56 innings and has never thrown more than 92 innings in a season in his life. I understand the want to have him in the majors right away, but it may be good to let him slowly work up. Maybe they can preserve him a little longer that way.

I agree that he’s the odd man out. I think he starts in AAA. Might be a good place for him anyhow. Let him get his legs under him. The rotation has injury issues (Ober not being exempt from that) so if the need arises, Ober would be among the best 6th rotational arm in the MLB. We’ll see how the Twins play this but they’ve already said he’s not going to the bullpen and they aren’t going with a 6 man rotation, so I really don’t see another option.

I agree! As far as Thielbar is concerned, I’m still a believer. His statcast page remains very solid, and even when he was seemingly struggling his underlying numbers indicated positive regression which eventually came. I do agree that the depth feels more promising and lessens the chance of overusing some guys!

Agreed! I think Jorge Lopez bounces back big time and gives the Twins a phenomenal 1-2 punch with Duran!

I personally think it’s a much better pen than the Twins have had. I think the top four is really solid and they have a litany of solid middle relief options behind them.

Also, for more information on how the bullpen position battle could play out, @Cody Christiewrote a great article yesterday!

Yes, this article has been queued up for about a week, so prior to Fulmer and Chafin signing.

Maybe it doesn't need any more help? Image courtesy of © Aaron Josefczyk-USA TODAY Sports Derek Falvey stated last week that, despite widespread speculation, the Twins weren't in the market for adding another relief pitcher in free agency. There are still a few quality names on the market, such as Andrew Chafin and the familiar Michael Fulmer, but for the time being, the Twins seem content rolling with the crew they have now out of the bullpen. Starting at the back end, what is the outlook for potential relievers for the Twins? Closer Jhoan Duran Like last year, I expect Rocco Baldelli to use Duran in a non-traditional closer role. This turned off many fans, but the logic is sound. Stick Duran on the opposing team's best hitters late in the game. The situation could be in the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning. Duran was as nasty as they came in 2022, mixing top-end velocity (103 mph) with filthy off-speed stuff. After only one season, Duran has proven himself to be one of the best in baseball. On the year, Duran had a 1.86 ERA, 89 punch-outs in 67.2 innings, and produced 2.8 WAR. Duran should continue to hold down the back of the bullpen and be among the most reliable guys to toe the rubber in high-leverage situations. Set-Up Guys Jorge Lopez Lopez came over from Baltimore at the deadline in 2022 and had a disappointing second half of the year in Minnesota. 2022 was Lopez's first year in the bullpen, as he was a failed starter asked to embrace a new role. In this new role, Baltimore had themselves a dominant closer who gave them 19 saves in the first half of the season, striking out 54 hitters in 48.1 innings to the tune of a 1.68 ERA. At the time of the trade, Lopez was considered one of the best closers in baseball. It was a small sample size, but what he did was legit. Lopez is another high-velocity guy who will hit triple digits and overwhelm hitters with his filthy stuff. His problem in Minnesota was; he just walked too many batters. In just 22.2 innings with the Twins, Lopez walked 14 batters. The good news here is that the walks weren't a problem in the first half of the season, so if the Twins can make the proper adjustments to limit the walks, Lopez should be fine. With his talent, he has all the makings of being one of the best set-up men in baseball and form a nightmare 1-2 punch with Duran. Caleb Thielbar Old-reliable himself. Overcoming some early season jitters, Thielbar went on to provide another excellent season for the Twins. The 35-year-old lefty produced a 2.42 FIP on the year, showing his ability to limit walks and home runs. Thielbar will continue to be a staple in the Twins pen, often being asked to take the ball in a spot late in games where the opposing team has a couple of left-handed hitters due up. The years may come and go, but Thielbar's ability to be productive in his role will stay the same. Thielbar will continue to be a solid and reliable arm for Rocco to call on late in games. Griffin Jax Joining Duran and Lopez as starters finding a new role in the bullpen, Jax had an excellent 2022 campaign. Jax was one of the heavier-used pitchers out of the Twins bullpen, throwing 72.1 innings and sometimes asked to eat up multiple innings. Armed with a filthy slider that produced a 36.8% whiff rate, Jax finished the season with a 3.17 FIP and struck out more than a batter per inning. The success of Jax in his new role was one of the highlights of the 2022 season, and he will look to continue his growth there in 2023. Middle Relievers Jovani Moran Jovani Moran was an excellent left-handed bullpen arm in 2022. Moran was so good, and it's possible by the end of 2023, he could be asked to take on more high-leverage situations. In 2022, Moran had a 1.78 FIP and struck out 54 in 40.2 innings. At the moment, Moran is a solid left-handed middle-relief option with a ton of upside. Trevor Megill On the surface, Megill's numbers could have been more inspiring in 2022. However, there was a sizeable discrepancy between Megill's ERA (4.80) and his FIP (3.29), meaning he was a little unlucky in 2022 and is a good candidate for some positive regression in 2023. The massive Megill won't be the Twins' most reliable reliever, but he has a chance to be a solid option to eat innings in the middle of games. Emilio Pagan Sit down, take deep breaths, and relax. What I suggest next may trigger you. The Twins were absolutely right to give Pagan another shot. At the start of 2022, Pagan was the Twins' closer, which is crazy when you think about it. In those high-leverage situations, Pagan imploded. As the year progressed, Pagan slid further down the pecking order. Eventually, he found his footing and put on an excellent second half of the season. Most of his late-season work went unnoticed, as his reputation was already tarnished. In a middle relief role, Pagan has the potential to be a valuable asset to the Minnesota Twins. Pagan was, at one time, one of the best closers in the game. At 32 years old, if he can continue to fine-tune his splitter and limit the long ball, there's no reason he can't be worth the second chance. Jorge Alcala Alcala is a true wildcard. Thought to be the favorite to take over the closer job after the Twins dealt Taylor Rogers for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan last spring, Alcala suffered a season-ending elbow injury after appearing in just two games. Alcala is young and very talented. If he can return to pre-injury form, he may see more high-leverage situations. There's also the chance that Alcala losses a step and struggles. When he returns, Twins fans will have to wait to see where Alcala is. This bullpen has loads of talent and plenty of reliable arms. If guys like Jorge Lopez and Emilio Pagan can sure a couple of things up, which I think they will, and Jorge Alcala returns to be the fireballer he was before his surgery, this bullpen has some real potential to be a top 10 bullpen in the MLB. What are your thoughts? Should the Twins add another arm, or is the bullpen ready to roll? Let me know! View full article

Good point. It was clear he couldn't even stand by the time September rolled around! Amazing he didn't decide to retire!

It will be interesting to see how teams adjust! Will there be teams that bend the rules as far as they can to still get some semblance of a shift? You're right, we won't know until they roll the ball out there! Thank you for your comment!

Spot on assessment! I agree with everything you stated! Thanks for sharing your thoughts!

Thank you! Great question as well! It was mostly because of the injuries honestly. You’re right though, I probably should’ve included a little blip. In 2021 he was actually above average at 1B. 2 OAA and 2 RAA.

Thank you for your input! I agree with your take as well. The numbers say it was mediocre, but I think positive regression comes!

I agree! There was a lot that went into the mediocre numbers last year. I think average is a good word to describe the unit. With the outfield defense as good as it is, this should be a top 10 defense.

I spent a lot of time researching this exact thing for this article and I came to one conclusion; if they are out there, they aren’t easy to find😂 I think positive regression is coming, but even if not, I don’t think the mediocre infield defense will be this teams downfall. I’m an optimist, but I think this team will be really good, and I think when the dust settles this will be a top 10 defense.

Great analysis! You’re right, there’s a lot more to the numbers than just the numbers! Thanks a bunch for this contribution!