TwinsRealist

One-year deals are an admission of fault. Either the market lacked quality, all trade routes fell through, or the internal options were so hideous that the team felt it necessary to promise a player pay for just a single year of their time. 
For the athlete, a one-year-deal represents one of two things: an opportunity to bounce back from a dreadful season, perhaps re-inflating one’s value before hitting the free market with a prettier sheen, or an acceptance of age, an understanding that father time’s inevitable march will render your talents useless. No team wants to lose out in a nebulous contract musical chairs, so the player Nelson Cruz’s it and agrees to one-year pacts before slithering away into retirement. Or he’ll sign with Pittsburgh.
Teams love diving into these waters. If the contract busts, they don’t have to be the poor souls legally stuck to an albatross, and their job security only takes the slightest hit. It was a good bet, after all. If the deal works, they look like genius, clairvoyant decision-makers who can reap the benefits of a productive player while raking in compliments. In a land where Xander Bogaerts signs for 11 years, that’s a reasonable pool to visit. 
There’s an emptiness to these deals, though. While professional sports is a business, we like to create connections with players, perhaps fooling ourselves into ignoring the massive amounts of money that exchange hands to allow their athletic ability to shine. When Max Kepler mans right field for the millionth time in a Twins uniform, our shared experience builds a connection, one that draws people closer to their romantic idea of a hometown sports team. What relationship will we have with Joey Gallo? How can we fully love a player destined to leave?
The player’s intentions become evident in this scenario. While Carlos Correa may become hands-on—which may not reflect well on him given the 2022 Twins’ record—other athletes may embody their hitman spirit, poisoning the clubhouse spirit with a selfish demeanor. 
The Twins, oddly, acknowledged this issue. Following the disappointing 2018 season, Derek Falvey admitted that their clubhouse grew a funky stink stemming from grouchy veterans on short-term deals. Logan Morrison and Lance Lynn were whiny and bad—that was what he wanted to say. 
In response to their problem, the Twins turned around and acted like they didn’t hear their own words. Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop, and Martín Pérez signed up for a ride on the 2019 Twins bus—a booming home run tour of the United States—but that season appears fluky. A hyper-juiced ball? Two full seasons of below .500 play afterward? The only thing right about that year was the Yankees immediately spanking them the second October entered the equation.
Once COVID neutered the 2020 season, the Twins hopped back onto the ball, signing a litany of average talent to one-year deals, setting themselves up for a disastrous season the team is still reeling from. J.A. Happ almost threw 100 innings for the team. He made Dylan Bundy sound like a good idea.
The ultimate question is this: what’s the end goal? One-year contracts are supposed to plug holes, not dominate the team's structure; imagine a dam constructed out of duct tape. The guess is that the team is saving for some future move, but few long-term deals of that nature have come to fruition, and the only significant splash players—Josh Donaldson and Carlos Correa—are no longer Twins. Ehire Adrianza entered the batter’s box donning a Minnesota jersey more times than either of those players. 
They were able to nail down a Byron Buxton contract, although they seemed disappointed that they couldn’t trade him to Philadelphia for scraps beforehand. The Twins deserve credit for that signing, but his deal pays him $15 million a season—far less than the market rate for superstar talent. If anything, the agreement should fuel a spending spree: they have their star locked down for relatively little, add as many great players as you can.
Even with little tied down in their books, the Twins remained hesitant to drop enough money to coax Correa back home. There’s no purpose to their choices. They’re saving money for a future in which they save more money. Maybe they’re looking even further forward, but there’s no guarantee that free agents down the road—enjoy all that money, Rafael Devers—actually become available. 
Until that big, non-opt-outable deal occurs, they’ll remain in this loop, always saving for a someday that never comes.
 

Last year, the Twins were 20.7 runs worse than an average team on the bases, according to FanGraphs. That was the second-worst mark in MLB. They stole (or even attempted to steal) fewer bases than any other team. They took the extra base on hits at a below-average rate, and they made outs on the bases at an above-average rate. 
That has been a pattern throughout the Rocco Baldelli era, too. The team will point out that the whole league is moving away from steals and aggressive baserunning, and that may be true, but the Twins still stand out like a sore hamstring. Since 2019, the Twins have stolen just 134 bases. The Red Sox have stolen the second-fewest in MLB, at 191. The gap between Minnesota and Boston is larger than the gap between Boston and the Yankees, who have stolen the 14th-fewest over that span. 
Baserunning is a nuanced art, and when a team does it poorly, the field staff always gets the heat. In this case, though, it’s pretty clear that the front office is driving the systemic failure. It can be seen in the types of players the organization prizes. It can be seen in their pursuit of Carlos Correa, and their agreement with Joe Gallo. 
But maybe worse of all, it can be seen in the injuries that have hamstringed the organization repeatedly over the last few years. The Twins terrible baserunning is part of a broader strategy, and it isn’t just based in Moneyball thinking. It’s based on the type of athleticism the organization values. 
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It’s not always wise to judge fan morale from social media. If we did, though, it’d be easy to see that Twins Territory is unhappy with the current product. Why wouldn’t they be? The Twins haven’t won a playoff game since I was four years old. They haven’t won a playoff series since I was two. 
After a long and grueling rebuild post-2010, it looked as though the Twins were emerging from the pits. The 2019 team won 101 games behind – yes, Nelson Cruz – but also the core Twins fans had heard about for so long. Miguel Sanó was a monster in the second half, Max Kepler was Twins Daily’s team MVP, and Jorge Polanco was an All-Star. Byron Buxton and José Berrios also shined, furthering excitement for the future. 
 
To call the next page a letdown would be an understatement. The Twins won the Central again in the shortened 2020 season but once again bowed out early in a playoff sweep to the Astros. They haven’t recovered. In back-to-back seasons, the Twins have missed the playoffs and won less than 80 games. 
The picture of a treacherous 2021 is the faces of Alexander Colomé, J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker and Andrelton Simmons, all half measure additions who flopped beyond belief. It was similar in 2022, with Emilio Pagán, Joe Smith, Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy failing to make a positive impact. The short-term, marginal moves have exploded violently. 
It’s true that the Twins lost quite a few players to long-term injuries in both of those seasons. It’s also undeniable that the team’s rotation is the deepest it has been on paper under the Derek Falvey regime. The club does have some exciting young talent, including Jhoan Durán, José Miranda, Joe Ryan, Royce Lewis and a 25-year-old Luis Arraez. Brooks Lee is on his way and Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson showed they are ready to help the cause. 
 
For all of those reasons, it’s imperative the Twins add impact talent this offseason. It’s time to find an identity and preferably one built around the star-studded pair of Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. The Twins need winning ballplayers to lead the hopeful Buxton-Lewis-Lee-Miranda era. No more half measures. 
It’s difficult to feel much optimism about the oft-injured 2023 roster. It’s not hard to see it going well, though, if the team has a productive offseason and better health. The 2022 Twins, with Bundy and Archer stapled in the rotation, were tied for first place in the Central on September 4th. They led the division for much of the summer. This division is quite the opposite of intimidating, even with Cleveland’s special season and the addition of Josh Bell. 
The longer the Twins fail to win in the playoffs, the more fans doubt they ever will. It has to happen now. With Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda all entering free agency after the season, the Twins’ urgency to add long-term, impact solutions should be busting at the seams. 
 
The type of winter the Twins need requires them to get out of their comfort zone, both in ownership and in the front office. This is not a “desperate times call for desperate measures” situation but more of an opportunity to grow in the face of extreme uncertainty and doubt. 
The Twins need to fully commit to winning in 2023. No more half measures.

If I had to sum up the Twins’ offensive philosophy in a single sentence, it would go like this: Hit the ball in the air, to your pull field. No viable approach could ever be quite that simple, of course, but theirs comes close. And Kyle Farmer fits into that mold. 
No other team in MLB emphasizes this quite as clearly. Knowing that this is what they’re always doing explains almost every individual offensive move they make. This can be seen using a statistic I’ve dubbed “Bomba Rate” which reflects that philosophy. Here’s the list of all 2022 Twins who came to the plate at least 200 times, with their Bomba Rate:
Bomba Rates, Minnesota Twins, 2022
Player
%
Rank (of 357)
Byron Buxton
11.0
7
Jorge Polanco
9.7
30
Jose Miranda
9.7
33
Nick Gordon
9.5
36
Luis Arraez
9.2
42
Gary Sanchez
7.9
103
Carlos Correa
7.3
134
Ryan Jeffers
7.2
139
Max Kepler
6.7
179
Gio Urshela
6.2
205
Gilberto Celestino
2.9
347
I won’t further inundate you with numbers, but name a homegrown Twins hitter from the last several seasons–Mitch Garver, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario–and they rank highly in Bomba Rate. Guys like Carlos Correa come through and see their Bomba Rates rise. The few free-agent hitters in whom the team invests (Marwin Gonzalez, Josh Donaldson) run high Bomba Rates. 
There’s more. Jake Cave had a Celestinish 4.0-percent Bomba Rate in 2022, and was waived immediately after the season. Kyle Garlick had a Buxtonian 10.5-percent rate, and the team re-signed him. The Twins kept both of their hitting coaches and promoted a third to their big-league team from within the organization this fall. Why did they do so, even after a frustrating finish to the season? Because those coaches got their guys to keep on Bomba-ing.
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Over the years we’ve heard Derek Falvey and Thad Levine use plenty of buzzwords when describing their process as heads of the Twins' front office. One comment that has been made was a willingness to “get creative” in signing new contracts. Creativity leaves plenty to the imagination, but we certainly saw a new way of negotiating when Carlos Correa was signed last spring.
Prolific agent Scott Boras negotiated a $105.3 million deal that was tied to a three-year term. Except, as we knew from the moment Correa agreed to put on a Twins uniform, he was only going to be with Minnesota on this deal for a single year. The Twins allowed Correa to have opt-outs after each of the first two seasons in this deal. He was always going to exercise that following a successful year one, and would’ve had a safety blanket in year two had he needed to opt back in.
So, do opt-outs allow Minnesota a way to put contracts a bit more in favor of the player?
Maybe someone will offer Correa a $350 million contract over the course of ten years. It’s hard to see Minnesota coming close to that, in terms of duration or money. What they could do, however, is to put a shorter deal together with a bit less money, but allow Correa to opt out in year two or three. The ability to again rip up a deal and continue working towards more money is certainly an advantage for a player. Revenues continue to increase in baseball, and year over year, it’s understandable that yearly valuations would also rise.
We haven’t seen an extensive track record for contracts with opt-outs included in them; they are somewhat of a new negotiating tactic. That means it’s hard to pin just how much players or agents value them, and while they aren’t specifically a monetary gain, there’s a value they theoretically should carry as well.
This isn’t just a Correa discussion either. Six other prolific free agents opted out of their contracts to enter free agency this offseason. Regardless if it was Xander Bogaerts or Jacob deGrom, each of those decisions was made based on the ability to secure a larger payday on the next contract. Some of those players did so at a similar age to Correa, while others are much older and looking for a short-term deal that will pay substantially more than their previous guarantee.
As the Twins try to angle their way toward acquiring talent, they’ll need to find opportunities to differentiate their offers. It really doesn’t matter what level of financial security the Pohlad family has, as dollars are going to be handsome across organizations as a whole. If the Twins can make lucrative financial deals a bit more player-friendly in terms of an opt-out or full no-trade clause, they should certainly be willing to do so.
It’s hard to see a talent like Correa walk after just a season because he had the ability to opt-out, but it was that opportunity that provided a way for him to sign here in the first place. Is utilizing opt-outs something you’d like to see the Twins do more of even if it relates to a lesser commitment from a given player?

Miguel Sanó is one of the biggest young stars to ever come through the Minnesota Twins franchise – figuratively and literally. Both these qualities would ultimately come to play against him, in terms of expectation and perception.
A Rising Prodigy
His emergence as a youth in the Dominican Republic drew the attention of filmmakers, who produced a documentary detailing Sanó's courtship from major-league teams. Amid controversy swirling around his actual age, Minnesota was able to swoop in and sign him for a franchise-record $3.15 million bonus. 
From there, Sanó began a rapid pro ascent. The third baseman flashed his immense slugging prowess in the low minors and quickly established himself as a premier prospect, ranking #4 overall on MLB.com's rankings after 2013. 
Then, in spring of 2014, he tore the UCL in his right elbow, requiring Tommy John surgery and wiping out his age-21 season. It was sadly the beginning of a nonstop cycle of physical setbacks that would keep Sanó from ever settling into any sustained healthy groove in his career.
He came back in 2015 and quickly reached the majors. He was as advertised, slashing .269/.385/.531 as a 22-year-old against major-league pitching. Sanó consistently worked counts and capitalized, looking every bit the part of a premier cleanup man for years to come. He finished third in AL Rookie of the Year voting behind Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor.
From Odd Fit to All-Star
The following year, Terry Ryan's effort to shoehorn both Sanó and Trevor Plouffe onto the roster led to the ill-advised experiment of shifting Sanó to right field. As a fast-growing hulk who seemed clearly destined to move down the defensive spectrum rather than up it, this assignment did not suit Sanó. 
He struggled in 2016, at the plate and in the field, contributing to an all-around total system failure that prompted Ryan's dismissal. In 2017, the Twins rebounded, and Sanó was a driving force. Posting a .902 OPS with 21 homers and 62 RBIs in the first half, he made the All-Star team and finished runner-up to Aaron Judge in the Home Run Derby. 
At age 24, Sanó was without question one of the true rising stars in Major League Baseball, his presence registering on the national scale. In all the talk of what a disappointment and bust he's been, people seem to forget this. For a while, it really was all coming together for him. And then... 
The Leg Injury
About a month after his All-Star experience, Sanó suffered an injury that would permanently alter the course of his meteoric career. On August 18th, he fouled a ball hard into his left shin that did serious damage. Diagnosed as a stress reaction, it never really healed, and Sanó had a titanium rod inserted during the offseason, which prevented him from being able to condition and prepare as normal for the following year.
This cascading series of events contributed to a completely disastrous 2018 campaign, during which Minnesota took the drastic step of demoting a broken Sanó from the majors to Single-A, merely so he could go to the team's facility in Fort Myers and try to physically get right. He finished the season with a .199 average and .679 OPS in 71 MLB games. 
Bomba Squad Revival
In 2019, we got one last burst of brilliance from Sanó, but it was a worthy final glimpse, offering everything we hoped he could be. Following a late start due to an offseason incident, he stepped in as a spiritual leader of the Bomba Squad, launching 34 homers in 105 games en route to a .934 OPS.
Reigniting his dominant offensive game, Sanó provided many of the season's most memorable highlights, including the grand slam in Cleveland that effectively sealed a division title.
By this point, Sanó was a 26-year-old with 118 career home runs and a 122 OPS+, coming off a monster campaign and seemingly ready to enter into a prodigious slugging prime. The sky was the limit, and Minnesota's front office attempted to capitalize with a three-year extension. 
But from there, the sky started falling and it didn't stop.  
Miguel's Mighty Collapse
It's easy to forget, but for most of the shortened 2020 season, Sanó actually looked the part. Through 42 games he was slashing .236/.321/.549 with 11 homers and 22 RBIs. Then he cratered in the final two weeks, going 4-for-42 with 22 strikeouts, and carried it over to the playoffs where he was 1-for-8. 
Sanó's offensive production was solid but unspectacular in 2021, where he slashed .223/.312/.466 with poor defensive ratings at first base to produce a modest 0.9 fWAR. Nearly his entire 2022 season was wiped out by a knee injury, and now, here we are. 
A Mixed, But Largely Misunderstood, Legacy
No one can deny that by the end of his tenure in Minnesota, Sanó was of little use. Framing his legacy within that narrow scope, however, tells a very incomplete and misleading story. Yet many people are oddly obsessed with doing so and always have been.
All the way back in 2017 I wrote about the implicit negativity bias that threatened to forever tarnish Sanó's perception in the eyes of fans. For whatever reason, there's always been a compulsion to myopically focus on the negatives of his game, even in the face of overwhelming positives and legitimately exhilarating moments on the field. 
Ax-grinding columnists and pandering media snobs have been relentless in hurling lopsided critiques at the slugger even during his best moments, playing off the most base tropes: that because he's big and strikes out a lot, he must therefore be lazy and bad. 
During his All-Star 2017, Jim Souhan penned a column for the Star Tribune titled "Pounds sneak up on injured Miguel Sano as Twins get back in race," directing blame for the stress reaction in his leg to his ... diet? At the beginning of Sanó's amazing 2019 season, a local outlet blasted out headlines about how Sanó was not "good at baseball," amidst an endless volley of derision, because – you guessed it – he was big and struck out a lot. 
As I wrote in 2017, "Sano's historic power is enabled by his size and strength, his ferocious cuts – the very same things criticized by anyone who's looking for a grievance to air." Would it have been nice if he remained a bit more svelte and made more contact? Sure, but Sanó is who he is and was always destined to be: a massive human being who swings obscenely hard and generates ridiculous power. 
By singling out the negative aspects of his size and swing, you miss out on the historically rare things they enabled him to do. Sanó ranks fifth among all Twins, ever, in slugging percentage. He has hit 162 career home runs before the age of 30. 
Over the course of his career, he has consistently hit the ball harder than almost anyone in the world. Just look at all the red in those max/average exit velocity columns, indicating he was at or near the top percentile of all MLB hitters: 

His tremendous raw power produced some of the most memorable moonshots of the Target Field era.
He hit the longest measured home run in the ballpark's history, a 496-foot tank off the White Sox in September of 2019. He nearly matched that distance at Fenway in 2021, where his 495-foot nuke off Nick Pivetta became the longest home run hit by anyone all season. The man put forth some of the most dazzling power-hitting highlights Major League Baseball has ever seen, which makes the pervasive compulsion to diminish him especially weird to me.
To be clear, Sanó also had some notable off-the-field issues, and was subject of multiple investigations. I don't begrudge anyone for disliking him based on these factors. In fact I can't say I care much for the person, based on all I know. But from a purely baseball vantage, the general conversation on Sanó has been extremely skewed, as any honest look at the facts and statistics will show. 
Was he a disappointment? Certainly fair to say, especially in light of the expectations set by his own talent and his excellent early MLB output. But to say he was a bust, or bad at baseball, or "never lived up to expectations," is out of touch with reality. 
Sanó was well on his way to fulfilling his promise, but in a twist uniquely on-brand for Minnesota sports, his ascent was halted and forever reversed just as he was rising to his peak. It's something to be lamented, not celebrated. 
Especially if the ending of this story follows script and he goes elsewhere to recapture his peak slugging form.

Let’s preface this with an adjustment of expectations. Are the Minnesota Twins legitimate World Series contenders? No, absolutely not. Unless something significant changes, this club will be lucky to win the division. However, if you’re hoping for an end to the nearly two-decade-long drought for a Postseason victory, that could set up well.
Rocco Baldelli’s club has next to no healthy bodies left. Jorge Polanco was left on the active roster for nearly a week without another player being added because there was not an obvious choice. Tyler Mahle is on the injured list again and won’t be eligible to return until roughly the final two weeks of the season. Sonny Gray has been held back at times, and the return of Byron Buxton does not appear close. All of that said, fighting through one game at a time makes sense for a battered squad.
Should the Twins find a way to outlast the Guardians and White Sox while they match up plenty over the final month, they can be as good as anyone during a short series. Should Gray find a clean bill of health by the end of the month, Mahle return, or Joe Ryan step up, the top three for the Twins can keep them competitive against any lineup.
On the offensive side of things, it’d seem likely that Buxton could return for a short term boost. Trevor Larnach will be back, and Polanco is ideally healthy by then. A lineup of mostly Minnesota’s best bats should be a fearsome foe to virtually any opposing pitcher.
Then there’s the reality that a Twins opponent likely wouldn’t be the New York Yankees. With a 12-team Postseason format, and Minnesota being the third seed in the American League, they’d face the six seed in a three-game Wild Card series. Right now the Seattle Mariners hold that spot, although it could also be the Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, or Baltimore Orioles. None of those teams are bottom-feeders as you’d expect, but they should present a good opportunity to win given Minnesota would get three straight home games.
It’d be great to see Minnesota make a run through the month of September, health or otherwise, to establish a stranglehold on the division. Without their depth, it just doesn’t seem like a thought based in reality. If they can hold serve and squeak out a division win while their competition also looks weak, then circumstances could turn in their favor.
A team lacking health and depth will get exposed in a seven-game series, and probably in a five-game series as well. In a three-game series though, the talent this Twins team has should be enough for a win in October, and even an opportunity to advance.
Threading the needle between health and positioning will be a tough task for Minnesota’s staff the next few weeks, but this should be seen as an opportunity where getting in could be just enough.
 

The above graph plots the results for every major league team against the five opponents currently on pace for more than 95 wins: Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, Braves, and Mets. The x-axis is win percentage in those games and the y-axis is run difference per game. A few notes:
The Twins were far and away the worst team in the league against this set of teams with a 0.11 win percentage, going 2-16. Those losses were well-earned, with an average run difference of -3.67. In-division foes Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City, and the White Sox will have played an almost identical schedule to the Twins, so comparisons between them are particularly appropriate. Even the lowly Tigers and gutted Royals have outperformed the Twins against the class of the league. The Twins' current deficit in the division can be attributed to their performance in these games. By contrast to the Twins' 2-16, the Guardians are a respectable 6-10 and the White Sox are 7-10. A similar performance from the hometown nine would have the Twins comfortably in first place in the AL Central. Luckily, none of the power five are divisional foes, so the Twins will still have a chance to squeak into the playoffs. We are all hoping for another shot at the Yankees or Astros in October. Right?

At the Major League Baseball level, most things are about the process working to dictate ideal results. Whether you view the concept of analytics as annoying or not, the reality is that they represent an application of information. When it comes to pitching, hitting, or virtually anything else on a baseball diamond, results are calculated by statistics derived from outcomes.
Every time that Minnesota Twins manager Rocco Baldelli steps onto the field and travels to the pitching mound hand-wringing ensues. Of course this is often because the removal of a starting pitcher is happening in the 5th inning or earlier. It’s not something done on gut feeling or through a knee-jerk reaction, but instead a reflection of what makes sense based on actual results.
Four pitchers have made the vast majority of starts for the Twins this season. Among them, Sonny Gray is the only one you would even consider for a top spot or two in a good rotation. Joe Ryan, while flashing signs of solid stuff, more closely resembles a number three or four pitcher. He’s been pulverized by teams above .500 all season long, and while that’s to be expected given his age and exposure, it doesn’t excuse the reality.
I have been vocal in that Dylan Bundy seems to be found value for Minnesota considering his output in spite of the predictive metrics. He is going to regress. Everything about his outcomes suggests regression will hit him hard. What the Twins have done is dance around having that reality smack them in the face to this point, and pitching him any more than he has would be playing with fire. Chris Archer is that fire that routinely burns both his manager and the bullpen beyond three or four innings. His stuff has been good, but the wheels fall off and things go awry.
Asking pitchers to face a lineup more than two times is not a bad idea, in fact it’s one that should be welcomed. In operating that way however, you need to have a stable of pitchers capable of completing that feat. There’s absolutely no argument to be made that the Twins had those arms when the season started, and now 36 pitchers into the year, they couldn’t be further from that being a possibility.
If there’s criticism to be had, it’s towards Derek Falvey and Thad Levine in failing to adequately supplement their starting staff. Major League Baseball as a whole has trended towards shorter starts for quite some time. Through the first handful of months this season, the average start was lower than five innings for the first time in history. With that reality, you’re effectively asking managers to massage a bullpen for something like four innings on any given night. That requires both high-end arms, as well as solid depth.
Minnesota had no arms capable of going deep into games when the season started, and their answer to a bullpen needing supplemental capabilities was a 38-year-old sidearmer in the form of Joe Smith. It’s great that rookie Jhoan Duran has been amazing, but it’s also been absolutely necessary for the Twins to stay afloat. His win probability added leads the league because of the weight being carried on his shoulders, and Baldelli wasn’t provided any additional answers until August. Jorge Lopez has regressed, and Michael Fulmer has been mediocre. Yes, Griffin Jax is a nice development, and it’s great Caleb Thielbar returned from coaching Division 2 baseball, but what are we doing here?
At the end of the day, the question as to why the Twins don’t allow starters to go deeper into ballgames really becomes why doesn’t Minnesota have better starting pitchers. It’s a process to develop arms, and very few will ever be a true ace. It’s also incredibly difficult to spend dollars on arms with 29 other teams vying for their services, and even less talent finding you desirable.
 

Predictions can be fickle when it comes to baseball, but things become more apparent as the season progresses. Players and teams have performed to a certain level at this point in the season, and those trends may or may not hold true over the final weeks. How many of the predictions below will come true?

Luis Arraez Wins His First Batting Title
August was Arraez’s worst offensive month of the 2022 season as he hit under .270. Luckily, many other AL hitters also struggled in recent weeks. Arraez ended August leading the AL’s batting race by nine points over Jose Abreau, with Xander Bogaerts sitting one point behind in third. To help Minnesota’s offense, the Twins need Arraez to get back to the players he was in the season’s first half. 

Jhoan Duran Leads the AL in WPA
Duran has been dominant in his rookie campaign as he quite literally helped save the Twins bullpen. Following the trade deadline, Rocco Baldelli has used Duran in the game’s most pivotal moments, which has helped increase his Win Probability Added. Duran currently leads all AL pitchers according to WPA, as he currently sits ahead of Justin Verlander and Emmanuel Clase. Minnesota will have close games down the stretch, and Duran’s WPA total will continue to rise. 

Max Kepler Wins the Gold Glove
Minnesota’s defense has significantly improved in the season’s second half, with multiple players putting themselves in the Gold Glove conversation. Kepler has been near the top of the AL’s SDI rankings for right fielders throughout the season and has a chance to finish atop the leaderboard. He should easily be a Gold Glove finalist and has a chance to become the team’s first Gold Glove winner since 2017. 

Chicago Will Be a Thorn in Minnesota’s Side
The White Sox were supposed to run away with the AL Central, but not much has gone right on Chicago’s Southside. Minnesota has three September series against Chicago, and the White Sox have a chance to play spoiler. One thing to keep an eye on is how the White Sox respond without their manager Tony Larussa, who stepped away from the team due to a medical issue. If they want to win the division, the Twins have to win a majority of their games against the AL Central in the season’s final month. 

The Twins Will Win the AL Central
Cleveland has taken over the division lead in recent weeks, but Minnesota has eight games left against the Guardians. From September 16-19, the Twins play five games in four days in Cleveland which will likely decide the division winner. There is an outside shot that the Twins can win a Wild Card spot if they fail to overtake Cleveland, but that is significantly less likely than winning the division. The AL Central will have one playoff team, which will be the team that walks away with the division title. 

What predictions do you have for the season’s final weeks? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

This offseason Derek Falvey made former Los Angeles Angels pitcher Dylan Bundy his first pitching acquisition when he was signed to a one-year deal worth $6 million. An $11 million team option was tied to 2023, and the hope for the Twins was that they could recapture the 3.29 ERA (and 2.95 FIP) that had Bundy finish 9th in the American League Cy Young voting during the 2020 season.
That would be a difficult task considering how bad he was last season for Los Angeles. Bundy owned a 6.06 ERA along with a 5.51 FIP. He was allowing two homers every nine innings, and he pitched in just 90 2/3 innings. The velocity actually ticked up to 90.8 mph last year, but the whiff rate dropped below 10% for the first time in his career.
Still, Minnesota’s plan was a value play. Bundy, alongside the eventual signing of Chris Archer, represented an opportunity to squeeze something out of nothing at the back end of the pen. To date, Bundy has thrown slower, struck out fewer batters, and his Statcast page makes Minnesota look warm in January. 

The notable reality here is what’s happened. Sure, Bundy doesn’t put the ball by anyone, and his start is hardly worth making note of. He does generate a strong chase rate and limits walks, but based on expected outcomes, regression should hit him hard. Yet, it hasn’t. He owns a FIP in line with his ERA, and an expected ERA of 3.98. No matter how you cut it, the stuff doesn’t match the results, but the job has gotten done. I wouldn’t guess Minnesota is itching to hand out the $11 million in 2023, but they’ve got to be happy with the surplus value this season.
On the flip side, there’s Emilio Pagan. Acquired from the San Diego Padres for Taylor Rogers just before Opening Day, Pagan was picked as a closer type with hopes of regaining his 2019 stuff with Tampa Bay. It began with a poor first outing against the Seattle Mariners, and the reliever has never recovered.
Pagan is under team control through 2023, certainly part of the allure in acquiring him. He can be tendered a deal through arbitration and won’t break Minnesota’s bank. The problem is that the results have culminated to the tune of 5.04 ERA, 2.0 HR/9, six losses, and seven blown saves. In short, he’s largely been the difference between winning or losing the American League Central division.
The reason Pagan continues to be given a leash is that everything except the results says he should be good. Velocity is up, his xFIP is just 3.30, he owns nearly a 36% chase rate and gets whiffs 14% of the time. In an age where velocity is king and misses matter, Pagan checks those boxes. His Statcast page shows a nearly inverse result of Bundy’s. Pagan has everything going for him until wood meets leather, and then it’s an absolute nightmare.

It’s been a very interesting situation for the Twins to manage this year. Rocco Baldelli has constantly been hamstrung with a bullpen including an unusable pitcher in Pagan. He’s been kept around on the hopes that tweaks will lead to expected or desired results becoming reality. Bundy isn’t the piece you build around, but he’s not the reason you lose now. Pagan is the type you hope to have become an asset, but you’ll take your lumps along the way.
This season Minnesota may have tied themselves to the wrong horse for long enough that it bites them. An analytical approach is how you seek to gain value and create sustainability, but there’s more than enough room for hiccups along the way. For a team threading the needle so tightly, we’ll have to see whether whatever happens in 2023 was worth whatever took place in 2022.

"It's evolve or die, really,  you have to evolve, you have to move on otherwise it just becomes stagnant" ~ Craig Charles.
In 2020, the world stopped. It simply stopped. A global virus was spreading like wildfire, stopping jobs, schools, and sports. Stuck inside for months and a shortened baseball season brought on the phenomenon of a social media app called "TikTok." TikTok was full of funny dances, lip syncs, and good feelings to keep the world "together." Videos spread quicker than the virus, and eventually, we saw people's lives in 60 seconds.
Baseball fans were no different. Sharing funny stories about their teams and making skits, all while awaiting the decision on when baseball would start again. In a shortened season, there was not much content to be made, but that didn't slow down any creators. Baseball fans found new and inventive ways to share their passion for the game without being let into the stadiums. 
In 2021, baseball let fans back into the stadiums, and along with the fans went their phones, and more content was being made daily by thousands of fans. 
TikTok was a way to show people the other side of baseball that some fans have forgotten about, and that's what keeps the game going—reaching out to the masses and creating a new generation of fans and people interested in the game. Those who can't go to games have a fun way to interact with their teams and see highlights and inside information.
In late summer 2021, they created the "Content Creator Class." MLB paid these creators to make content specific to baseball. MLB's Marketing Department was looking to add innovative content creators to the ballparks around the league. Candidates needed a strong understanding of baseball and how to best show off the experience at a game from behind a lens for display on league and club social media channels.
One of those fans was Caitlin Hendricks, a Chicago native, and raging Cubs fan. Her hilarious content and trolling of other teams made her a great creator to be followed on TikTok. She is one of the original content creators for MLB. 
The only girl with four brothers, Caitlin's family lived and breathed Cubs baseball. Initially, when the pandemic started, she was making "relatable content" before making baseball content. Some of her funniest stuff was dating advice and what it was like living in a Covid dating world. 
"I was making content about dating and relatable stuff to what we were going through in the pandemic." Caitlin stated, "I wanted to change my niche.' I have always loved baseball and started by just making funny little videos, and it blew up." 
 
Her personality radiates through her 30-second stints. Pretty soon, she was making content about MLB dating advice for dating people from other fan bases and where MLB teams would take you on your first date based on their brand personality. One of the best things about Caitlin as a content creator is her quirkiness and relatability. She isn't afraid to be herself and invites followers into her frustration, humor, and sadness as a baseball fan. 
Caitlin has always dreamed of working in sports and often jokes with her brothers about being the one who works in sports. She has goals, and being a content creator for MLB has opened those for her. But what it's done for her more than anything is sharing her passion for baseball and the Cubs. She is still humbled when people get excited to get a response from her, she doesn't feel famous, but she loves that people relate her to baseball and that she engages with them. 
I asked Caitlin how one becomes a content creator for MLB. "The process was straightforward," says Caitlin, "I submitted a video, they messaged me, and then I had a legit interview."
From there, her entire world got bigger. She was invited to Wrigley to hang out with other content creators to make videos, where she met some players, ate some excellent food, and hung out with Clark. She also has made tons of brand deals and has met Zach Brown from the Zach Brown band. 
Her newest venture, a personal favorite of mine, is her baseball filters. Caitlin continues to grow in her content. She is terrific at making filters and has created filters for mascots, Which MLB Team are you?, and a fan favorite Backyard baseball character from the computer game created in 1997. She has made a filter for every team, and people will scroll through the teams by tapping on their screen during recording and try and guess the teams. The best ones are the ones who are not baseball fans guessing the teams, and in social media terms, they "blow up," and MLB teams around the league will comment on their videos.
 Many people who aren't baseball fans are engaging with baseball more frequently and becoming more interested in the games, the outcomes, the drama, the comedy, and the beauty of what baseball is. MLB has been trying for years to engage fans but hasn't been successful at retaining them. Many of the older fans have gotten frustrated with the rules, time, and base size changes, but to continue baseball and grow the fan base, MLB needed to get creative. 
Since 2020, the MLB TikTok account following (5.3 million) is now comparable to NBA and NFL, all major-league teams are using it, and even minor league and independent teams are using the video platform to engage with their fans. Now when fans go to games, they feel connected to the game, the players, and the culture because of creators like Caitlin. Caitlin went to the Field of Dreams game in Iowa with fellow creator Trevor Fahnstrom to watch the Cubs play the Reds, all because of TikTok.
TikTok is for everyone, for all fans, and even those who aren't MLB content creators have a vast presence in team loyalty and are showing that hard work, networking, and manifestation can make dreams come true.
Stay tuned to hear about Jule's journey with social media and how it helped her accomplish her biggest dream with the Cincinnati Reds. 
 
Go follow Caitlin:
Twitter: CaitlinHendrix 
TikTok and Instagram: Caitlin_Hendricks
 

On May 24th, the Twins defeated the Tigers 2-0 in a seven-inning masterpiece from Sonny Gray. The Twins won their sixth straight game and nine of their last 11. They opened up a 5.5 game lead in the division and had 10 straight games against the Royals and Tigers to boot. 
Things started to unravel the next day. Trevor Megill gave up a game-winning two-run homer to Jeimer Candelario in the 10th and the Twins lost 4-2. Unfortunately, that was more of a foreshadow than an anomaly. Since that day, the Twins have given up 93 homers, tied for the third-most in baseball. 
The Twins are 30-37 since Gray’s 10-strikeout, shutout gem. They have a team ERA of 4.59 in that span, the fifth-highest in baseball. Their team Win Probability Added of negative-5.44 is the second-lowest in the majors. The pitching staff has been a borderline disaster, evidenced by Joe Ryan’s 5.33 ERA in his last 10 starts. 
Recognizing these major holes, the Twins’ braintrust went out and got three good pitchers in Jorge López, Tyler Mahle, and Michael Fulmer. A shaky staff now looks more stable, at least on paper. Of course, the guys need to perform on the field. 
López has already blown a save, Mahle gave up three homers in his Twins’ debut, and Fulmer gave up a critical homer to Chris Taylor in Wednesday’s loss. Beyond them, Griffin Jax has been anything but his solid self from the first half. Jax now has a 4.03 ERA in 42 appearances, thanks to three blowups in his last 10 outings. 
Add in the inconsistent playing time of Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa’s struggles, and myriad injuries, and it’s not difficult to see why the Twins have scuffled. The good news? The season doesn’t end today. If it did, the Twins wouldn’t make the playoffs. 
Max Kepler isn't hitting, Correa hasn't hit since May, and Alex Kirilloff's wrist injury evaporated some much-needed left-handed upside in the lineup. Even then, the Twins are tied with Houston for the 8th-highest team wOBA (.326) since May 25th. They're tied with the Cardinals for the seventh-highest Weighted Runs Created Plus (113) in that span. While sometimes inconsistent, the offense has mostly done its part. 
The worst of the six division winners in 2022 will certainly come out of the American League Central. It's unlikely the Twins, White Sox, or Guardians would make a run in October. Even then, it's absolutely worth the excitement of ending the treacherous 18-game Postseason losing streak. Playoff games at Target Field is the goal. 
So What’s Next?
If this is truly the low point for the 2022 Twins, that’s good news. They have 52 games remaining, including 17 against the Guardians and White Sox (33%). 16 of the Twins’ next 19 games are against teams currently below .500, with 13 of those at Target Field. The Twins have 28 games, or roughly 54% of their schedule, against teams currently below .500. 
Of the Twins’ final 26 games, 14 are against the White Sox or Guardians. There’s plenty of opportunites to make up ground. For as rough as the Twins have looked, no one remembers what the standings were on August 11th. 
Of the 16 games in September/October that aren’t against their two divisional threats, 12 are against the Royals, Tigers, and Angels. The other four are at Yankee Stadium. The Twins have the 10th-easiest remaining schedule entering play Thursday. They need to perform. 
The Twins have the most head-to-head games remaining among the three contenders in the Central, which ultimately gives them an advantage. They control their own destiny here. Will they seize the moment?
Comment your thoughts below!
 

It was an afternoon contest with Joe Ryan starting against the Detroit Tigers and Tyler Alexander. A gorgeous 84-degree day at the yard, Kickily was waiting for me in the bleachers near the bullpens. It was here that I had first met the artist, early on in the season, and he was quick to remind me that this was as good of a perspective as any to start.
Melissa Berman on Kickliy
We began discussion surrounding the YouTube Game of the Week, in which Minnesota was recently featured and Kickliy found himself on the broadcast. From discussing his art to doing live painting alongside the crew, it’s become more than apparent to the artist that Major League Baseball has taken note of his work. Taking note of the action around us, the Twins were donning their alternate reds, a uniform combination Kickliy notes as being fun to paint. Unfortunately, the Detroit Tigers had their boring grays on, something that leaves little eye appeal available.
1st Inning
Kickliy brandishes his tools and pulls out the first sheet of paper. Still sitting in the left field bleachers, the view is of the whole field, with a focus on home plate and the stands behind. Green dots of paint are placed on the page, dried and ready for manipulation. This was a neat starting position I had not considered. Given the amount of similar color in his view, Kickliy allowed for a starting position to help with the speed in which he’s able to clock out his masterpieces. Ryan worked a quick top half, and Kickliy took in a phone call from home. Still painting the entire time, a scene begins to take place.

2nd Inning
Working through what will eventually become his scene, Kickliy notes that the perspective from certain locations are set realities. What he’s capturing is action, and that’s why he puts in so much advanced work to understand movements of players and knowing their mannerisms. At this point in the season, he’s a creature of habit, and the vision becomes a routine process. While adults have taken notice of his work, there’s no age limit to the intrigue. A small baby boy is now looking on. Shortly thereafter we move up a few rows as someone came for the seats we were in. The entire paint studio moves on the fly, and within minutes the art is back underway. Background remains the focal point here as people stop and comment while finding their seats. Then Sandy Leon rips a two-run double, his first hit with the Twins, Kickliy smiles and kicks into action.
3rd Inning
Less than ten minutes later the first painting is done. Leon’s initial highlight with Minnesota is in the books. Kickliy adds some words in his traditional font, and a fan from the row behind comments, “that’s awesome.” More comments from those around roll in, “That’s a really good painting,” says one. Another walks up and offers a “that is beautiful” sentiment. The artwork has now taken on a life of its own and questions as to whether they’re for sale of a gallery exists become a talking point. Kickliy then leans back for a selfie with his perspective in the background, uploading to Twitter and Instagram, and now all of Twins Territory has access to the art.

4th Inning
With one piece already completed, it’s now time for a fresh perspective. From the left field bleachers, we walk down the concourse along the third base line. An usher inside one of the elevator areas recognizes Kickliy from previously being painted. He knocks on the window to get the artist’s attention and smiles while offering a thumbs up. We make our way past Hrbek’s, but not before being stopped by another usher, this one knowing Kickliy well. She sparks up a quick conversation before shaking his hand and offering “Have a great game” before we’re again on our way. Pulling up to a section along the first base line, a fan recognizes Kickliy before heading into the section. A quick conversation ensues, but after previously only following on Instagram, Kickliy has a new follower on Twitter.

5th Inning
Sitting in one of the diamond boxes just beyond first base, we now get a closer look at Joe Ryan. Minnesota’s starter has cruised much of this day, and his long pitching motion catches the eye of Kickliy. With a new perspective visible, but action taking place, the art again gets underway. Ryan puts himself front and center when he finishes off the inning on a strikeout.
6th Inning
Manager Rocco Baldelli goes to the bullpen for Michael Fulmer’s Twins debut. Kickliy already having started a piece featuring Ryan’s motion, he’s now forced to quickly finish from memory. As Carlos Correa’s walk-up song, 25/8 by Bad Bunny, comes on Kickliy begins to hum. He’s taken in so much action that he has the words down, and it fuels him as he again notes how much planning and repetition help him to stay sharp. 
7th Inning
While not all fans appreciate the monotony of the 7th inning stretch, you can count Kickliy a supporter. Standing, stretching, and beginning to sway along with the music, Kickliy emphatically throws up hand gestures for 1-2-3 strikes as the song concludes. A fan approaches him, this time from multiple rows back, and asks whether the art is for sale. He wants to know more after having seen him on a recent broadcast. Kickliy notes how to follow his work and then wraps up the second painting with another selfie being posted to his social media channels.
8th Inning
While the perspective of games around Target Field largely remains constant, the action does not. This game had little in terms of constant action, and Kickliy is then forced to think on the fly. Finding a few subjects in the crowd near us, he opts for a group of older women sitting behind us off to his left. As they are taking in the game, none of them had noticed he’d begun to work with them as subjects. Despite this contest being largely wrapped up, there was still a story to tell during this late juncture. As other fans begin to notice Kickliy’s subjects, they eagerly look on at the paint and then back at the women to both judge the work and take in the expressions of the unknowing fans. As he wipes a bit of paint off on his pullover, a stadium giveaway from Opening Day, he remains clued in on the subject even with a small amount of action on the field.

9th Inning
Jorge Lopez is on for his first save with the Twins, a game they’ve had in hand from the jump. Kickliy continues adding details to this image and is perfecting the final few strokes. Just before the Tigers limp off on the final out, he turns the painting around and the women immediately offer smiles and dropped jaws. Fans around the area clap and the women find themselves incredibly impressed with a moment presented to them simply by taking in a baseball game. Rather than a selfie this time, Kickliy has me take a picture with him and the subjects. They shake hands and are on their way. We relax in the seats for a few moments as the crowd clears out. It’s somewhat decompressing following the day’s game. Our final conversation ends, and we begin to go our separate ways. After all, there’s more action to be painted tomorrow.
 
 

Starting pitching depth is vital for any contending team, and the Twins have used a lot of their depth during the current season. In 2022, twelve different pitchers have made starts for the Twins, including eight pitchers who made five or more. 

Top of the Rotation: Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle
None of these three pitchers were in the Twins system 14 months ago, which speaks to the front office's ability to acquire talent. Minnesota has used Ryan and Gray at the top of the rotation for all of 2022, with each posting an ERA+ of 104 or higher. Mahle's transition from Great American Ball Park to Target Field should help his numbers improve. Gray and Mahle can be under team control next season, while Ryan won't be arbitration eligible until 2025. Barring a significant injury, the Twins will look for these three arms to be at the top of the rotation throughout 2023. 

Returning from Injury: Kenta Maeda, Josh Winder, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, Randy Dobnak
Winder and Ober are scheduled to throw bullpen sessions this week with a chance to impact the roster down the stretch. Winder has shown the flexibility to pitch as a starter and reliever, while Ober's appearances have all been as a starter. When healthy, both players have pitched well, so they should be in the mix for a rotation spot next season. 

More prominent question marks surround the other injured pitchers listed above. Maeda is also expected to be ready in September, but he will likely serve in a relief role if he makes it back in 2022. During the 2020 season, Maeda finished runner-up for the AL Cy Young, but there are no guarantees he will return to that form. Paddack likely won't be ready at the onset of the 2023 campaign since he had Tommy John surgery in May. Still, he was terrific during his brief Twins tenure and is under team control through 2024. Dobnak has been dealing with a finger injury for the last two seasons, so there are no guarantees he will be back to 100%. 

Down on the Farm: Jordan Balazovic, Blayne Enlow, Cole Sands, Devin Smeltzer, Simeon Woods Richardson, Matt Canterino, Louie Varland
Minnesota's 40-man roster will be squeezed this winter when the team has to remove players from the 60-day IL. Balazovic, Enlow, Sands, and Smeltzer are all on the 40-man roster, but the team might have some tough decisions to make with some of the names. Balazovic has struggled at Triple-A this year, but he is still considered one of the team's top pitching prospects. Enlow returned from Tommy John surgery this year and has a 3.73 ERA with 46 strikeouts in 41 Double-A innings. Smeltzer saved the starting rotation during the middle portion of the season, while Sands has been limited to fewer than ten big-league appearances in his rookie campaign. 

Woods Richardson, Canterino, and Varland are among a group of prospects that will need to be added to the 40-man roster before the Rule 5 Draft. During his second Double-A stint, Woods Richardson is having a breakout season with a sub-3.00 ERA while holding batters to a .583 OPS. Canterino has dealt with various elbow issues over the last two seasons, but he is dominant when he can pitch. Varland recently was promoted to Triple-A after posting a 3.34 ERA and 119 strikeouts in 105 innings at Double-A. All three pitchers should be added to the 40-man roster this winter, which makes them one step closer to the big leagues. 

The old adage states, "a team can never have too much pitching." It's clear the Twins will have options for the 2023 season, and there is no way to predict how injuries will impact the organization. Another option is to have some of these arms switch to permanent bullpen roles, but that is a decision for this winter. 

Which pitchers will make the most starts for the 2023 Twins? Will any of the younger pitchers be contributors to the rotation? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/25 through Sun, 7/31
***
Record Last Week: 1-4 (Overall: 53-48)
Run Differential Last Week: -14 (Overall: +26)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (1.0 GA)
Last Week's Game Results:
Game 97 | MIL 7, MIN 6: Bundy, Bullpen Let Down Bats in Loss
Game 98 | MIL 10, MIN 4: Tellez Sinks Twins with Pair of 3-Run Homers
Game 99 | SD 10, MIN 1: Ryan Gives up 5 Home Runs in Laugher
Game 100 | MIN 7, SD 4: Sonny Plays Stopper, Correa Steps Up
Game 101 | SD 3, MIN 2: Offense Goes Quietly, Twins Drop Series
NEWS & NOTES
Miguel Sanó was back ... then he wasn't. Following a three-month rehab from knee surgery, the slugger was activated ahead of Tuesday's game. Appearing in three games, he went 0-for-6 with four strikeouts, then went back on the injured list with knee inflammation. Evidently the injury flared up during a slide in the final game of his rehab.
For Sanó, whose career was basically on the line this year, it's another terrible break. He was in need of a good season to resuscitate his sagging stock ahead of his date with free agency. Instead, his body is letting him down and he may find himself settling for a minor-league deal in the offseason. It seems likely (to me, anyway) we've seen him for the last time in a Twins uniform.
Sanó was far from the biggest loss for the lineup. Max Kepler went on the injured list alongside him, with his fractured pinky toe proving too much to play through. Most perturbingly, Alex Kirilloff came out of Saturday's game with wrist soreness. More on that later.
Filling in these key roster spots are names like Tim Beckham and Mark Contreras. They're deserving of chances, and both great stories in their own right, but it's tough to be leaning on unproven Triple-A players at a time like this. The Twins are in the grinder right now. 
Alas, the pitching staff also keeps getting blindsided by crushing blows. Danny Coulombe, who's been unable to fight his way back from a hip injury, is now out with season-ending surgery. Meanwhile, Josh Winder landed on the injured list again due to his recurring shoulder impingement. He's been shut down and sent to Fort Myers as the team tries to figure out what's going on. They aren't calling this a season-ending move for him, but it very well could be.
HIGHLIGHTS
For me personally, the biggest highlight of the week was traveling to San Diego and taking in a couple of games at Petco Park. The stadium lived up to the hype, and the downtown gameday experience far exceeded all expectations. Admittedly, it felt a lot easier to ride out a rotten week for the Twins while enjoying an incredible city and soaking in the vibes of sold-out summer games in perfect weather.
I realize this does little for any of you. I'm sorry. 
My own experiences aside, there were some legitimately good moments on the field, even as the Twins bumbled through a sloppy 1-4 week. José Miranda stood out as the biggest bright spot, starting every game and going 8-for-19 with two homers and five RBIs. 
He has suddenly become the pivotal force in the middle of the order, with an aggressive free-swinging approach that yields powerful drive after powerful drive. Opposing pitchers just can't find a way to stop the kid. He even made a few nifty plays defensively at third base.
Byron Buxton was the other explosive performer in a generally underwhelming week from the offense. He homered three times and stole a base (notable after the previous week's PRP injection in his knee). 
On the pitching side, Sonny Gray was good. 
LOWLIGHTS
Gray's solid outing on Saturday – 5 IP, 1 ER – was much needed in the wake of three straight duds from the rapidly unraveling Twins rotation. Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer were bad against Milwaukee, but Joe Ryan's clunker to open the Padres series took the cake. 
In 4 ⅔ innings, the right-hander was knocked around for 10 earned runs on FIVE homers. It was a very odd game for Ryan, who also struck out seven and set a career high with 15 swings and misses. His stuff was either really working or really not working, and that's a scarily unpredictable proposition for a guy who'd likely be starting in the postseason.
One could argue that Rocco Baldelli hung Ryan out to dry on Saturday night, but who can really blame him with a bullpen that continues to inspire zero confidence. Tyler Duffey has fallen back into the pits after a modest run of effectiveness – he took the loss with a brutal ninth-inning appearance in Milwaukee on Tuesday, and then endangered a six-run lead in the ninth on Saturday by coughing up a three-run HR.
Caleb Thielbar is gearing up for a return, which will be helpful, but this bullpen continues to look direly undermanned, with a void of trustworthy options beyond Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax. 
The pitching staff needs impact reinforcements, and they'll likely get some within the next couple days. Even then, the Twins are clearly gonna need the offense to carry the load if they're going to hang on for a playoff berth and hope to make any noise. That's where the past week proved most unsettling.  
The team pitched well enough to win on Sunday for a change, but the offense could not answer the call in a 3-2 loss, coming up empty outside of solo homers from Miranda and Luis Arraez. Carlos Correa had a big two-run homer on Saturday night, but otherwise went 1-for-20 on the week. Gary Sanchez went 1-for-10 with seven strikeouts, wrapping up a month of July in which the now-starting catcher slashed .149/.245/.234.
The lineup is lagging and will now be without Kepler for however long it takes his toe to get right. Meanwhile any small hope of Sanó coming in and lighting any sort of spark is gone. But the Kirilloff news is easily the most gutting on the lineup front.
I don't want to make a mountain out of a molehill, but the revelation from Baldelli that "Kirilloff's wrist got to the point where he couldn't swing" strikes me with possible season-sinking implications. I had remarked a few days earlier about how Kirilloff was noticeably reverting to the habit of topping every pitch – that tendency was a clear indicator of how his wrist issues were impeding his swing before he went to the minors, received a cortisone shot, and got back on track. Following his initial power surge, he had one of the highest grounder rates in the league in July.
Kirilloff was such a huge factor in the offense's midsummer success, slashing .307/.328/.548 with 17 RBIs in his first 18 games back after being recalled from Triple-A. But his gradual regression back into an unimposing ground-ball machine was painfully evident, and the numbers back it up. Sadly, news of his wrist re-emerging as a debilitating factor comes as no surprise.
Several of the key young players that the Twins were hoping to rely on this year – Coulombe, Royce Lewis, Chris Paddack – are already gone for the season. Several others – Kirilloff, Winder, Jorge Alcala, Matt Canterino, Randy Dobnak – are persistently plagued and repeatedly sidelined by mysterious injuries and conditions that the players and medical staff can't seem to solve. 
It makes you wonder, at this critical moment ... is the structural core of this team good enough to be fixed up for a successful stretch run? Or are we flailing against inevitability?
TRENDING STORYLINE
That question weighs heavily with the trade deadline looming at 5:00 PM CT on Tuesday. The philosophical dilemma I pondered over the All-Star break – how much does it make sense to sacrifice key future capital in a leveraged market to aid a deeply flawed current roster? – has only grown murkier in two weeks since. The Twins have gone 3-4, watched their division lead shrink to one, and absorbed bad break after bad break on the health front, as outlined above.
The Twins, Guardians and White Sox are bunched in the standings, each separated by a game apiece. They are all looking to add ahead of Tuesday's deadline, and are pretty much in direct competition to address semi-similar weaknesses in a finite seller's market. It's going to be fascinating to see how things play out between these three competing clubs as they set themselves up for the final stretch in a division that's very much there for the taking.
LOOKING AHEAD
The Twins have seven home games in the week ahead, setting the tone for a month in which 20 of their 28 games will be played at Target Field. 
MONDAY, 8/1: TIGERS @ TWINS – LHP Tarik Skubal v. TBD
TUESDAY, 8/2: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Matt Manning v. RHP Chris Archer
WEDNESDAY, 8/3: TIGERS @ TWINS – LHP Tyler Alexander v. RHP Joe Ryan
THURSDAY, 8/4: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Alek Manoah v. RHP Sonny Gray
FRIDAY, 8/5: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Ross Stripling v. RHP Dylan Bundy
SATURDAY, 8/6: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Jose Berrios v. TBD
SUNDAY, 8/7: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Kevin Gausman v. RHP Chris Archer