ChineseGandalf

The trade deadline usually provides the maximum return for sellers, although the problem is that Kepler's value may only tank further by that point if they play him as a platoon player. However, it seems fairly likely that he may continue to be the every day right fielder, which should make him somewhat valuable I hope.

It seems like we have quite a few viable internal options and I think they are banking on healthy returns from some of the players that were out last year (Maeda, Alcala, maybe Paddack). Maeda particularly seems like he may make his way to the bullpen rather than back into the starting rotation. I think the Dodgers were doing that with him as well prior to that trade.

? Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Emilio Pagan ($3.00M) RP: Danny Coloumbe ($1.00M) RP: Louis ($0.00M) Payroll is 35.36% under budget

It would be a terrible decision to pay Correa 30+ million per year on a 8-10 year contract. Looking around the league - how many of these long term deals for stars are actually worth it? There are so many albatrosses around the league on bloated deals. It seems like people are quickly forgetting Joe Mauer's deal (which was hardly insane by any metric). There was a great deal of moaning when Mauer got hurt and did not play up to the end of his deal, even though he certainly did earlier in his contract. How long will Correa play at a 30 mil value? He is likely playing there now, but he is in his prime. When you pay for a contract like that, the question is not really whether the player is worth it today, it is whether they are worth it halfway through the contract. He almost certainly will not be, and with Royce Lewis likely back at some point next year, I really do not see this making sense for the Twins.

Gordon is very promising because of his athleticism and ability to be a utility (or super-utility) player. If he was stuck at a single position, he may not have seen the opportunities that he has. He is not an amazing defender, but he is capable and can fill in almost anywhere. This, combined with a bat that seems to be ever-improving may make him a mainstay for the Twins for at least a few years. I would be extremely happy if he ends up filling a Polanco-type role as a good-hitting infielder. He may never have the power that Polanco does, but I wouldn't rule that out either. Polanco did not come up with as much power as he has shown now, and I think Gordon still has a lot of potential improvement ahead. He has been a very nice surprise this year.

That is really good news... that must mean that the MRI came back clean. Hopefully there's nothing under the surface here though... the fact that this has been a recurring problem for him is very concerning.

I have been blown away by Miranda, especially considering how drastic his turnaround was. I have been expecting some regression since he has peaked this summer, but if anything he has continued to improve. He is easily the Twins best hitter right now, and probably has been for the last two months or so. I'm also onboard with signing him to a long term deal, because I foresee him being a very productive contributor for years to come. The combination of power and average are very promising and could see him be a MVP candidate within the next several years.

Well this is the most Twins thing to happen since... Chris Paddack. Mahle hurt already? Yikes... hope it isn't serious. Also, Pagan replacing him seems designed to drive us all crazy.

Ump missed a clear strike three on Stassi sadly.

This game should have been over. Missed a strike three call on a clear strike up in the zone (poor framing by Sanchez though). Classic frustrating situation... very Twins-like this year.

I think the point in parity is not so much that there are not dramatically good and bad teams, but rather that the bad teams and good teams can dramatically change from year to year. The MLB has the same few teams in the playoffs every year, and has the same buyers every single offseason. Success in the NFL is not limited to the same several big market teams, and rather has incredible turnover between the top and bottom. Also, I'm not sure that your other claims are correct. For instance: Longest playoff drought in sports - MLB (Mariners - 20 seasons). This is not even close to any other professional sports. The NFL's longest drought is 10 years, I believe (Jets). This is hardly comparable.

Despite how terrible the Twins have been, the White Sox and Guardians are pretty much equally bad. I see this division finishing fairly close, no matter what. It is depressing to watch us trot out Beckham/Cave/etc every game though. Also, our formerly hot bats are pretty quiet too... Correa has been disappointing and Buck is hurt. We are limping down the stretch, which is not a good formula for making the playoffs or winning a game. If I had to bet, I'd say the odds are on winning the division and adding two more games to our record playoff losing streak. I hope I'm wrong.

Gordon is going to be a very valuable piece to have over the next few years, as a very low cost asset who is playing better and better. It seems that his floor at this point is utility guy, in the vein of Ehire Adrianza or similar player we've had over the last few years. However, his ceiling is the most perplexing. I really don't know what it is, considering that he is starting to flash a lot more power than I thought he would ever have, as well as avg/obp. If he turns into a 15+ hr per season player, which is certainly possible at this point, he is going to be a hard bat to replace in the lineup. He was always well-regarded as a pretty decent contact hitter, and I think the major knock on him was his lack of power. That seems to be trending in the right direction, so I am really looking forward to him hopefully continuing to carve a spot for himself in a pretty good lineup.

This post is an absolutely terrible take. The "top 10" listed ignore not only the draft picks of this year, but the multitude of players graduated this year from prospect status. This is cherry picking at its very worst. How about the development and graduation of players in the Twins' farm system? Kiriloff, Larnach, Miranda, Duran, Jax, Ober, Winder, Sands, Celestino, Gordon, Ryan. I'm probably missing some as well. How about Gray and Mahle, high quality arms acquired through trades off of the top of the prospect pool. The major league team today is significantly more talented than the team was when Falvey took over, and our prospect pool is probably pretty comparable. We have a mid-tier farm system, and it was a very strong farm system until we graduated Kiriloff, Miranda, Larnach, etc. It is somewhat frustrating to read posts like this that complain about the farm system and the front office, and at the same time ignore the large number of high quality young players (rookie or sophmore) that are contributing significantly to the major league club.

This is a bummer in a lot of ways. It did have to be done, but it is sad to see how far he has slipped from a couple years ago where he was one of the best relievers in the league. The one-two punch of Rogers and Duffey was very nice for a bit, and it is sad to see him go. Hopefully he can recapture some of his electric stuff somewhere else (preferably somewhere in the National League).

I am relieved that we did not trade Kiriloff or Miranda (and we still got good arms). I was very concerned that the front office was considering mortgaging the future for a rental (even a 1.3 yr rental) for one of those players. I am happy with where we are at for 2023 as well, as we have quite a few good arms that will be around next year, barring injury. I think Povich was the only top arm we gave up, and of course Steer was a top prospect. However, Steer was logjammed considering Polanco/Arraez/Miranda and hopefully Lewis on the team next year, as well as perhaps Correa.

He was solid for us, I don't think this is a good take. 3.03 ERA in 38 innings - quite good if he hadn't been hurt. He is having another good season this year, although not quite as good as when he pitched for us. He doesn't justify giving up much, but I wouldn't mind having a semi-reliable arm for the stretch. I think it is hard to argue that he is worse than Bundy.

I agree with this take. Free agent pitching is always a crapshoot to an extent, but it would have been nice to pick up a few pieces then. Trading for pitching at the deadline is always the worst time to do it, because we are buying high rather than buying at a market rate in the offseason.

I agree with this, and I hope they stick by this strategy. Frankly, I don't see a #2ish starting pitcher moving the needle much anyway. The Twins have swung twice this year for starting pitching and made big time trades (Sonny Gray and Chris Paddack). Acquiring a top tier SP as a "final piece" is fine, but not when it comes at the expense of the next several years. This may be an unpopular opinion, but I am just fine with the Twins doing nothing at the trade deadline (and even missing the playoffs as a result) if it means that they have a longer sustained run of good play.

I hope that neither are traded. That would be extremely shortsighted, and it is frustrating to hear all of the calls to make a huge splash trade. If we did go for any of the top arms (Castillo/Montas), it would almost certainly require one of Miranda or Kiriloff to be traded. This Twins team, even though it is currently leading the division, is not that great right now. Coming into the season, I think most people saw this year as a minor rebuilding year (despite the Correa move), with the hopes of competing more strongly in 2023. I still think that should be the case, as if we trade either Miranda or Kiriloff we are mortgaging the next several years. Both are under team control for a long time, and both are clearly major league starters over the next 4-5 years. Why would we trade that for even a year of control over Montas or Castillo (plus we would be trading other top prospects as well as part of either trade). Does acquiring either Montas or Castillo really win us a playoff series this year? I just don't see how it would be worth it. All of that said, I would not be surprised if the front office made one of those moves.

Unfortunately, Urshela is probably the best defender we have at 3B. He is not a very good defender though (ranked 27/40 in DWAR this year at .03 DWAR, which is barely better than replacement. The problem is that the rest of our defenders are not very good either at 3B, although Fangraphs has Miranda at +1 Outs Above Average (in 128 innings) while it has Urshela at -6 (in 682 innings). While Miranda is not a plus defender, I don't really see Urshela as an upgrade at all over him. I don't think that Urshela's defensive value will be the reason a trade does not happen.

I'm sure the Twins are shopping Sano right now, but I agree that the return for him is probably slim. We would almost certainly have to eat salary and/or the buyout amount for next year's team option, potentially. However, I could see a few teams being interested in him as a former highly touted prospect who does flash monster power. I don't think he would return us any sort of top tier bullpen arm, but we may be able to flip him for middling bullpen help.

If we can get him on a five year deal, the current number, or even a touch higher would be a steal. The problem with most of these deals are that they are 7-10 years. Even if we get good value in years 1-5, it is almost certain that Correa's production will fall off by the ender of the 7-10 year deal (and possibly dramatically so). I am very concerned about any deal over the five year mark, and I highly doubt that Correa will sign anything less than 7.

Honestly I am not convinced that Miranda should be starting over Urshela at third or Arraez/Kiriloff at first. However, those are not the only roles for him. There is an obvious role - DH, that as far as I can recall, he has not played at all since being called up. Why are we DHing one of Sanchez/Jeffers? Miranda is a significant upgrade on either of those two as the DH. Jeffers is hitting decently well right now, and Sanchez can hit alright, but neither are what you really want in a DH. In fact, for most of the year Jeffers has been unplayable as a bat, and Sanchez has recently come back to earth a bit. We should at least give Miranda the DH over those two.

I appreciate this post a lot. Rocco may not be charismatic or super-likeable, but I don't think we can deny that the Twins have been for the most part very good over the years that he has managed them. Sure, not all of that is on him (most of it probably isn't), but neither are the downs. It is easy to nitpick his pitching decisions, but for the most part the analytics-based decision making, which almost certainly comes directly for the front office, has been working. I think the post hits the nail on the head - if we were a terrible team, no one would really care about these decisions. But since we have a very good team, he is an easy target for the critics to criticize.