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Bradfoot

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Everything posted by Bradfoot

  1. Bradfoot
    The bottom half is good though. It means less injured players. 19th most injured players means 11th fewest. It was only 2022 that we ranked high with reds, pirates, cubs.
  2. Bradfoot
    Deep dive into number of players injured each of last 5 years. Seems like 2022 was an outlier. MLB 2022 Injured Reserve Tracker | Spotrac 2022 - Twins ranked 3rd with 32 players injured (team) (number of players) (number of days) (amount of money on injured list) Cincinnati Reds 37 2,638 $33,712,787 Pittsburgh Pirates 34 1,730 $10,499,570 Chicago Cubs 32 2,158 $45,160,984 Minnesota Twins 32 2,363 $32,712,075 San Francisco Giants 31 1,462 $39,365,278 2021 Twins ranked 16th most injured players with 28 2020 Twins ranked 19th most with 14 players 2019 Twins ranked 16th most with 19 players 2018 Twins ranked 19th with 18 players
  3. Bradfoot
    Should be interesting watching the Sano critics who obsess over batting average react to Gallo this year.
  4. Bradfoot
    The mega deal makes more sense to me for the Mets. The Giants don't seem to be ready to capitalize on the first few years of this deal like the Mets are. At the same time, I wonder what the Mets will look like in 5 years when all these expensive players are hitting their mid 30's. The Mets will probably be able to stomach all these deals even if/when the players have fallen off but it certainly seems like they are all-in now and will deal with the consequences later. Sounds like the Giants got cold feet and were looking for an out. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets, the “Giants flagged something in [Correa’s] physical and doctors disagreed.”
  5. Bradfoot
    The White Sox seem to be hitting their stride. This can still be a very scary lineup. I'm starting to see them as the favorite. Since August 1st Eloy Jiminez .366/.444/.565 190wRC+ Jose Abreu .329/.377/.401 124 wRC+ Elvis Andrus .303/.340/.528 147 wRC+ Lance Lynn 1.81 ERA 10.51 k/9 Dylan Cease 2.18 ERA Cueto 2.87 ERA
  6. Bradfoot
    I think pointing out that the odds are against them is a lot different than saying they should not try at all. I did say I hope they make the playoffs which should imply that I want them to try.
  7. Bradfoot
    So it's not important to look at our record against opponents outside the AL central when we (if we make it) would be the only AL central team in the playoffs? It's also not important to look at our record against teams over .500, or playoff caliber teams? I really don't expect an announcer to quote the under .500 records when comparing a playoff matchup.. "Houston has a much better record than the Twins but let's not discount how well the Twins did against Royals and Tigers."
  8. Bradfoot
    Where did I say give up? We are being propped up by a horrible division though.
  9. Bradfoot
    IKF hit one off of Verlander 7/28/18. (I spent way too much time looking that up.)
  10. Bradfoot
    Take away our AL Central games and the Twins are 37-43 on the year. We are 31-41 against teams at or above .500. But someone needs to represent the prestigious AL Central in the postseason, and it might as well be us. It would sell a few more tickets this year and season tickets next year. It would also make us slightly more attractive for free agents. There is also that small chance of an underdog run. If we forced a game 3 in round 1, could we declare a "went the distance" moment or would we need to make it further to start throwing around Rocky 1 references?
  11. Bradfoot
    The article says Lucas Gioloto has a 75.27 ERA. I expect some more offense today.
  12. Bradfoot
    It remains to be seen how the season will finish, a lot of games left against the Central division where we have a 30-20 record (13-11 since June 1st). But my overall point being that the Twins have largely outperformed the expectations up until now. Instead of placing blame, it might be better to just realize that this was always a roughly .500 caliber team.
  13. Bradfoot
    Comparing this season to what preseason expectation were, I would say this is pretty much what we should have been expecting. Fangraphs had a preseason prediction of 82 Wins for the Twins and a 40.4% chance of making the playoffs. Pretty much right on the nose with where we are now. That would still be a 9 game improvement from last season.
  14. Bradfoot
    yeah that was a sneaky signing by the Giants, 2 years $20M and a 10M option on the 3rd season.
  15. Bradfoot
    Isn't this going to be apparent for all pitchers? They are always going to be more likely to be forced out of the game by the top of the lineup. If the 2,3,4 hitters get on base you don't assume he will get the next 3 out just because they are 5,6,7 hitters. The top of the lineup is more likely to do damage and pitchers are more likely to be pulled when they run into trouble. If anything this supports pulling him sooner. He shouldn't be asked to get lit up by the top of the order to get to the bottom of the order a 3rd time. I admit the 8.25 this year is a small sample size and I try to use his 4.88 career as a better indicator.
  16. Bradfoot
    A huge part of the reason Sonny Gray has such a good ERA is because he has been consistantly pulled early. It's easy to assume that a good performance would have continued but the data suggests that odds are they wouldn't have. The same people that get upset that x pitcher was pulled during a good outing will wonder why he wasn't pulled when a 5-inning shutout turned into a 6th or 7th inning meltdown. When a starter's stat line for the 3rd time through the order is worse than replacement level then it really shouldn't matter who is coming in for him. I don't think there is any team that has carried the same 13 or 14 pitchers for the whole season. The 3 best bullpens according to fWAR are Baltimore, LA Dodgers, and Atlanta. They have used 32 pitchers, 28 pitchers, and 29 pitchers. So even the Twins using 33 pitchers with our bad bullpen has not been very different than the elite bullpens, usage wise.
  17. Bradfoot
    Sonny Gray 2022 1st time thru the batting order 1.56 ERA 2nd time thru the batting order 3.13 ERA 3rd time thru the batting order 8.25 ERA Career 1st time thru the batting order 2.65 ERA 2nd time thru the batting order 3.80 ERA 3rd time thru the batting order 4.88 ERA Sonny Gray's career ERA when facing a batting order for the 3rd time is 4.88. Emilio Pagan has a 4.87 ERA this season. Running Sonny Gray out for the 6th inning would be statistically worse than putting Pagan in.
  18. Bradfoot
    I have always believed the minimum innings for a win was a pointless barrier when relievers could get a win after facing one batter. I also think the mentality around what is expected from a starting pitcher will change, just like it did when the 100 pitch count started to become a standard. I believe more and more teams will see that pitchers are worse the more the lineup sees them so teams will be constructed in a way that they can pull the starters earlier. It's hard for the players to argue with what gives the team the best chance to win without sounding selfish (stats, salary, etc.). There are years of data to support pulling starters earlier than what is perceived as normal. Maybe we will eventually get away from 5-man rotations and a 4 or 3-man rotation will give starters more mileage but there is a clear shift happening in the mentality around starting pitching.
  19. Bradfoot
    If Sonny Gray is only going to look at teams that will give him an average of 6+ innings, the number of teams he can sign with would be small and getting smaller. More and more teams are adapting this mentality of limiting the number of times they go through the lineup instead of x number of pitches thrown, this is not a Twins specific philosophy. Is he really going to turn down a big contract from the Dodgers because he doesn't want them to pull him after 5 like they do with some of the best pitchers in the league? Sonny Gray's ERA when facing a lineup for the 3rd time is 8.25 this season (4.88 career). We are doing him and the team a favor by pulling him early.
  20. Bradfoot
    I think the Twins will continue to play like they have been and finish at or slightly above .500. The question is will that be enough. The division is awful and will likely be up for grabs until the end. The new playoff format might be interesting this season though. As things are right now, the lowest seed in the AL (Rays) would play the 3rd seed (Guardians/Twins) while having a better record than them. If they win that game, they would face the 2nd seed. On the other hand, the first wild card team or 4th seed (Blue Jays) would face the 5th seed (Mariners) that currently has 3 more wins than the 3rd seed then play the 1st seed if they move on. It seems like the 6th seed will have an easier path than the 4th seed because of the weak Central division.
  21. Bradfoot
    They exceeded the threshold last season so they aren't completely against going over. They will probably need to reset that soon though and will probably push to next season. They can opt out of the Wil Myers contract (20M) and the contracts are up for Sean Manea (9.7M), Mike Clevinger (8M), Stammen (4m), and Johnson (3M). If they fill out the rotation internally, which they probably can, they might be close. It will probably be another offseason of them trying to ditch the Hosmer deal. After this season it drops to 13.63M per year so it might be a little more manageable to get rid of if they can get him to agree to it.
  22. Bradfoot
    Hosmer is not included
  23. Bradfoot
    Padres would pay the Hosmer Contract for 23, 24, and 25. The Nationals would only pay the remainder of this years salary of the deal. Not a bad player to have playing for free.
  24. Bradfoot
    I don't think the trade calculators are capable of valuing a potential future trade properly. For instance, Miami does not need to trade Lopez. There is no urgency for that. Larnach and Steer may seem like an even trade to the calculators but does that trade value convince Miami to sell someone that they have no reason to sell? I don't think so. I think a seller trading a highly regarded player with 2.5 years of cheap control would be reasonable to expect to "win" the trade by a fairly wide margin. It would take more than Larnach/Steer to get Lopez.
  25. Bradfoot
    I don't really see Miami parting with a great starter that still has 2 full years left. They could find a corner outfielder of Larnach's caliber much easier than replacing Lopez. They want to be competitive next season and I believe Lopez would be a big part of that. I think odds are better of them finding an extension for Lopez in the next 2.5 years instead of trading him. I could see him getting a deal similar to what they gave Sandy Alcantara last offseason, buy out the arb years and get 2-3 additional years.
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