Tiantwindup
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Everything posted by Tiantwindup
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Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #11-15
Tiantwindup replied to Theo Tollefson's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
FESTA = Future Elite STarter Asset fits his name better (as well as my hopes)!- 29 replies
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- matt wallner
- yasser mercedes
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I think another way to describe some of this behavior is to say the organization acted with integrity. In addition to Nick’s thoughts there is another benefit of this recent activity that could positively impact future signings—the Boras relationship. It was not too many years ago that when the discussion of trading for or drafting of Boras’ clients arose many on this board were fearful because once they got close to free agency we expected them to bolt. We did not want to draft or trade for such players. They would become unaffordable. They would not stay. Five or ten years ago were any Twins players represented by Boras? Now, shortly after signing C4 we sign Paddock (to what I think most would agree is a pretty team-friendly deal). . Boras is his agent (I haven’t checked for the full list but there are other Boras clients in the Twins’ organization). I do think the relationship with Boras helps with future negotiations with his clients. And possibly more importantly, when major leaguers see that the highest profile agent has many clients employed by the Twins it can only help their perception of the organization. And by extension, their willingness to consider signing here.
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Thanks for the details on the big names and the ‘low-dollar’ signees beyond the first 3. Although it’s fun to read about the potential of the high-end guys, I think it’s the low end guys that dictate success level in international signees (Arraez vs Sano, for example), simply because, as mentioned, it’s hard to predict the future of a 16 YO. Are the most successful teams those that sign the the big names or those that sign, say, the most in the $50-200K range (Altuve, anyone?)? Should the Padres have signed 30 guys for $100-200K rather than one for essentially their total pool of money? Anyone got any insight over the question of ‘quantity vs quality’?
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- ariel castro
- hendry chivilli
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Simply to flesh out more information. Did the info from the Giants answer every single question you have about his opinion or do you want to clarify something or go a little deeper? You are about to commit $315M. Look, I’m not saying the Mets aren’t using this as an excuse to rescind a hastily proposed contract or whatnot, I’m just of the opinion that if you want to sign a guy for 12 years and you know of an eminent physician who thinks it’s not a good idea then I think it would be proper due diligence to speak with him directly versus just relying on a report or whatever it is they had. I think NOT talking to him would be weird.
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Totally agree on Gordon. What’s not to love? how about a package of gray and polanco for a starting pitcher?
- 59 replies
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- max kepler
- sonny gray
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The Latest on the Minnesota Twins and Carlos Correa
Tiantwindup replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yes it does: the Yankees, also mentioned, are at -10%! -
It’s seems that the Twins drafting philosophy is that there is less risk drafting a bat vs an arm when the pick is at the top of the draft. In the ten drafts from 2008-2017, the twins drafted 9 pitchers in the first round and only two—Berrios and Gibson—have had success as staring pitchers. And the two highest picks, Stewart and Jay, were big busts. On the hitting side, there were 8 first rounders and 3 of them, Buxton, Hicks, and Gordon, have been solid contributors. In addition, both Lewis and Kiriloff still have a good chance to be solid and arguably would already be if not for injury. This may be a small sample size but I think it is instructive.
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- chase dollander
- noble meyer
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Brooks Lee's Stock is Already Rising
Tiantwindup replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Its seems that there is one specific instance where all might agree that a bunt is a worthwhile out. Extra innings, tie game in bottom of inning. Only one run is needed. Bunt the ghost runner to third … -
Spot on. It is beyond me as to why there aren’t relievers pitching multiple innings to help manage workload. That could take the form of Bundy/Archer piggybacking or relievers pitching 2 (or more) innings rather than 1 on each outing. For example, rather than having Jax and Fulmer pitch 1 inning each for 4 consecutive days (not gonna happen), have one pitch 2 innings on day 1 and 3 and the other do same on days 2 and 4.
- 25 replies
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- alex colome
- emilio pagan
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Minor League Recap (8/5): Offensive Explosion
Tiantwindup replied to Lucas Seehafer PT's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Yes, surprisingly nice for us that they made it through waivers.- 11 replies
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- simeon woods richardson
- matt wallner
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Could Carlos Correa Opt Back in for 2023?
Tiantwindup replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Intriguing thoughts. Anyone know the deadline for him to opt out for next year if he chooses to do so?- 90 replies
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- carlos correa
- byron buxton
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Many of the comments reflect a view that from a performance standpoint Duffey had to go and then follow up with some combination of statements on good performance in past/wish him well/he was a good guy. Too often we blame underperformance on laziness, stubbornness, etc. rather than recognizing this is a really difficult game to play and it is hard to sustain at a high level of play. I appreciate those of you that recognize and acknowledge that in your comments on Duffey.
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Will Alex Kirilloff Ever Truly Recover?
Tiantwindup replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
To say that someone has to be at fault is overly simplistic. Some medical problems cannot be easily diagnosed or solved. Too many arm chair doctors here trying to come up with a way to assign blame. Unless someone is a physician with Kiriloff’s detailed medical records and orthopedic or related experience it’s just blowing smoke. -
The Prospect Price for Top Tier Pitching
Tiantwindup replied to John Bonnes's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
The higher price paid for Castillo vs. Berrios makes sense based on supply and demand: with more playoff teams this year there there are more buyers and fewer sellers compared to last year. We should expect higher prices to be paid by the buyers the next few days… -
Ok, I’ll bite: both Archer and Bundy have options for next year so they can still be here (the tone of your comment suggests you want them back). Palacios plays short until Lewis is ready. He is competent defensively and that should be sufficient for the first couple of months until Lewis arrives. Losing Correa frees up $35M that can be spent in a variety of ways. Some youngsters may regress but as a whole it is reasonable to expect them to be better overall next year (Kiriloff, Winder, Miranda, Celestino, Larnach…). Maeda is back. And there could be some additional help from the farm…
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Nick, totally agree with the philosophy: make some improvements to help with the chances this year but don’t sell the farm. A few tweaks; 1. I think Povich is too high a price to pay for Bard so I would try to get him for someone lesser (and maybe needing to be added to the 40-man this Fall) or pass on the trade. 2. I would hold onto Smeltzer and use in bullpen. Not sure who my substitute is for him in the proposed trade…but I do like the Noah idea.
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Twins Draft Class 2022 Update
Tiantwindup replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
As with Dman I also offer thanks to Jeremy and others that provided superb draft coverage all along the way. Maybe I didn’t pay as much attention to prior drafts or just can’t remember very well, but I think this year’s effort sets a new standard for the draft. Kudos to all from TD who contributed!- 26 replies
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- brooks lee
- connor prielipp
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Usually college arms don't pitch much during draft year to protect their arms after pitching a full college season (of course same applies to high schoolers). Will Prielipp be an exception since he hasn't pitched any 'live' innings this year? Will he get, say, 30-40 innings of work in the Twins system? If so, could get an early indication on how he looks (and would be fun to see)...
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There are two pitching issues to be concerned about over the course of the season. The first is that many of the starting pitchers are on innings counts and if we plan on being in the playoffs what happens to those that exceed their limit come playoff time? A 6-(or even 7-)man rotation can help manage that limit but obviously at the expense of an undermanned bullpen. However, a 7-man rotation with 1 or 2 pitchers rotated through the 10-day IL with minor ailments (assuming there is no need for longer ‘legitimate’ IL stints) can help with starter workload without reducing bullpen size. The second pitching issue is of course the bullpen. If we add one decent arm to the pen at the trade deadline the playoff bullpen is also supplemented by, for example, Smeltzer, Archer, and Ober (pick your own 3 starters to ‘demote’ to the ‘pen) and could conceivably include Maeda and Alcala as well. That’s a pretty good bullpen Granted, that assumes all are healthy but the point is that our excess starters can give the ‘pen a significant boost come playoff time when we move to a 4-man rotation
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- josh winder
- luis arraez
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Pitching Coach Wes Johnson to Abruptly Leave Twins
Tiantwindup replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Twins have the right to fire him from the job so he should have the right to quit. It’s a two-way street. -
Jose Miranda Deserves a Shot
Tiantwindup replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Agree he needs a shot. In my optimistic moments I think they are showcasing Gio so they can trade him for pitching and move Miranda to third full time. As I say, in my optimistic moments… -
This. And to add to it: Most of the comments suggest the FO won’t and/or should not go to 7-10 years at $35M-ish per year. So why not offer raising his near term salary by buying out both his options for $20-30M? This gives CC an average salary of 45-50 over the next 2 years and then he is a 30 YO free agent and can go for the 7-10 year contract. If he opts out now and signs a 10 year contract at $35/ he makes $385M over 11 years. If he signs for $50M for next two years and then signs a 7 year contract with another team (@ age 30) for $35M he makes $380M over 10 years…several variations are of course possible on this…thoughts?
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- carlos correa
- byron buxton
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