Rod Carews Birthday

Great article Seth. While it sounds like he obviously has plenty left to do, he's young and very projectable. You can't really fake a strikeout rate like that - especially as a lefty. He is definitely a player to watch.

Mmmmmm. Delicious. . . .

The Twins did him no favors when he was rushed to the majors (out of necessity), and that has slowed his development quite a lot. What they did was find a guy seemed promising but needed two more years of school, hoping he could just skip those classes and succeed anyway. Unfortunately, now it looks like he is being punished and sent back down (after he heals) when he is really just getting in the classes and hopefully finishing the degree before he comes back. I understand why it had to be done, but now they are paying the price. The Celestino situation is EXACTLY why I am NOT clambering for Julien or Lee to be called up to the majors anytime soon. They are both incredibly promising but they need to put in the work and learn in a low pressure situation so that they can be called up, be successful, and stay up in the majors once they get here. Give them time to develop on the farm. Don't waste service time while they try to figure it out on the fly.

Those would be amazing! I think Gallo and Lopez are most likely to actually happen with the Gallen trade the least likely. Buxton having a real season and finding a gem in Julien would be awesome but I'm not holding my breath. My fingers are crossed.

I think it is interesting how much the Twins roster has changed in just the past few years. RF, LF, and 1B are three "power hitter" positions and we only sort of have that covered with Gallo/Kepler. Kiriloff might become that, but he's not there yet. I don't think that relatively a "2 WAR" player is bad, but those are the positions that tend to be occupied by stronger hitters than we currently have in place. So, compared to the rest of the league, we don't look very good here.

I have by no means been to every major league ballpark (or city for that matter), but I have been to quite a few. My experience is that fanship at Target Field is definitely among the most "civilized" that I have seen. It's not perfect. . . I'm a realist. . . there are ding dongs all over, but it really is pretty good. I do feel like I have to defend the White Sox fans. I find them to be pretty normal and reasonable people. . . they could be Twins fans. Again, there are a few real ding dongs out there doing really, really dumb stuff so that's not good but that is the exception and not the rule. Unfortunately we all tend to gravitate toward the example of the worst imaginable behavior and assume that it happens all the time. On the other hand, and the other side of town, it is impossible to go to a Cubs game and not experience at least 7 out of 10 of the criteria and sometimes more than that. Insufferable does not even begin to describe the situation, and it is almost always present. Honestly, I have experienced most of these things with Cubs fans without even being at the ballpark. They are a different sort. . .

Julien needs to at least begin the year in the minors. It will be better for his long term development. Playing well in spring training is great and useful but let him go down and rake for at least a half year. That will force the issue and be a wonderful problem to have on our hands. THEN, we can figure out who to trade/release (or who is hurt!) to make that happen. I want him to come up and stay up, not be doing the St. Paul shuffle because he can't figure out how to handle major league pitching.

The beauty of this lineup is that no one in it is completely irreplaceable. If anyone is out, there is an actual (mostly) qualified major league player able to come in and take their place. In addition, there are going to be capable pieces down in St. Paul able to play before we ever get to some of the guys that we threw to the sharks last year at the end of the season. All of this is to say while I don't love injuries, the floor for this group of position players is pretty good. So. . . Polanco - consistency is key Buxton - get the man some AB's Correa - as Correa goes, so will this lineup Miranda - I think there could be big things in store here (Good) Kiriloff - if healthy. Otherwise Solano? maybe bats seventh Gallo - we're going to smile about this signing by the end of the season DH for the day - This will be a committee, so the lineup position will change all the time. Vasquez - it's a good catcher spot, even when Jeffers plays. (Bad) Kepler - If we get good Kepler, he can bat 5th. Nobody is traded. Nobody not on the 40 man roster. Not the 1927 Yankees, but no black holes either.

Ideally, you would like to have the trade work out for both sides, especially if it is in the other league as in this case. That way, when you want to trade again you have some takers, instead of people who run the other way when you are dangling a trade chip. None of these players (Mahle included) have done nearly enough to declare this trade (and a lot of other ones) a success or a failure. As to the Twins getting fleeced all the time, I'm not sure that's really the case. If it were there would be lots of guys around the league that we would say we desperately want back. Historically, the Twins have made some pretty good trades over the years. Trading Pierzynski for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser. . . now there was a fleecing! Let's do that again.

The problem with trading for a “#1/Ace” starter is that aside from a small number of names (probably less than ten - Johan Santana used to be one of those), you don’t really know what is going to happen and you wind up trading for the player that they were the year before . . . for another team. Pitchers are way too unpredictable and variable to bank on one name to do it all. In most cases, these #1 guys have a year or maybe two where they are that good (see Hughes, Phil and Mazda, Kenya) and are otherwise mortals. As I see it, the Twins have one guy in Gray who is going to be pretty good (but likely not an ace) and pretty predictable, one guy in Mazda who is recovering from injury and is a bit of a wildcard but could also be pretty good,, and three guys in Mahle, Lopez, and Ryan who are definite candidates to break out and be more productive than ever before. I prefer that to trading away half of the farm for a year or two of a guy who was previously really good for another team.

As a manager, this has got to be the most exciting time for Baldelli. He is comfortably in his role. The team arguably has more talent than he's ever had to work with before. The key leaders are locked up for a few years. Whether that translates into playoff success is a great unknown, but it has to feel good going into the year like this. I don't think he's remotely on the hot seat either, nor should he be, but this really could be a time to create a legacy as manager of the Twins. Best of luck to you Rocco!

Managing his workload will be the key. Obviously we'll be very happy if he gets to 120-150 innings with a reasonable ERA. For starter #5, that's pretty impressive and a lot better than anything that we have gotten from that spot the past few years (decades?). Somewhere along the way, he's going to need a break and a few skipped starts in order to limit his innings (assuming no setbacks/injuries). That will also be a great time to see what some of the starters down at AAA have to offer.

In the short term, it would appear that Cleveland is our rival for the division, but don't count out Chicago. They could easily surprise if their young talent stays healthy. I've always felt that Chicago is the more traditional rivalry even though it doesn't really inspire the kind of other team hatred that is prevalent in other rivalries. As someone who lives in the Chicago area, I go to Twins/Sox games every year wearing my Twins jerseys and usually wind up in a really positive discussion with a random Sox fan about the teams this year. They are largely just real baseball fans who even cheer for the other team when something good happens. I guess most of the nastiness gets tied up on the other side of town for the Cubs and Cardinals.

Thanks for an excellent breakdown. If he can maintain his late season numbers, Moran will indeed be extremely valuable and also be insurance in case there is any fall off from Theilbar from the left side. There are always plenty of innings to be taken care of by the bullpen so we’re going to need many good pitchers to step up and maintain consistency.

Oops! Oh yeah. Forgot about that!

Thanks for the update. My preference is generally for printed words but the little videos are a nice changeup from the usual fare. I would prefer some other background than walking around the outside of the stadium . . . maybe turn around and make a video with the game in the background? The Larnach injury could be concerning (or not, as they don't tell you the severity or nature of the injury). Hopefully it is nothing serious and he'll be back at it in a day or two.

It seems like Cavaco and Sabato are already toast -- no reports of injuries, but no good production either. They would both seem to be on thin ice. I think Larnach still has a great deal of hope. When he has been healthy for brief periods Larnach has hit well and been a solid defender. Labeling him a bust is certainly premature, and if he doesn't make it because of injuries, that's not on the draft evaluators.

First of all I think that Ohtani is an excellent pitcher. He was very good two years ago and excellent last year. I don't know if that makes him what people on the boards are calling a "true ace" or not -- 160 innings of 2.33 pitching in his very best year. $32M per year? Not sure. He's definitely not the workhorse that Justin Verlander is. As for a DH, again he is very good. $27M per year good for a pure DH? Also not so sure that's the going rate, and combining the two of those salaries puts it way too far over the top to be worthwhile. Someone may pay the man, but just because you can doesn't mean you should. Let someone else write that check.

I'm joining the optimistic homer crowd with 90-95 wins as well. Although I think the offense may struggle a bit from time to time, having five or six good to excellent starters is a dramatic uptick from having maybe two at the beginning of last year and combined with improved defense will make up for the difference. Go Twins!

This is indeed encouraging for both of these pitchers. I am especially excited by Ryan continuing to develop (on the fly, in the majors!) into a better and better pitcher. He kind of strikes (pun intended) me as being particularly cerebral about his pitching, so I agree, with more pitches to go with his crazy good/deceptive fastball, he becomes a stud!

I think that prospect lists are pretty nice to know who the younger level “up and comers” are, but I think that once they get close to (or in) the majors, a difference of a few ticks in prospect ranking doesn’t really mean much if anything. At that point, it can be all about fit on a team or opportunity in the right circumstances. Those reasons along with health are probably why this prospect list is higher on Steer than Lewis. I think the long term outlook probably favors Lewis, but in the short term, Steer may be a better bet for a good season this year.

Exactly. If the shift wasn’t taking away home runs, it would be foolish to think that not having the shift would restore Kepler’s home run power. That will require something more.

Wow! Nice digging for some unexpected information. A few more batting average points for Buxton would be awesome. Let’s hope that happens!

I believe I said that. I was cautioning those who may think that getting rid of the shift would magically return Kepler to 2019.

I think that just having less defenders in the way of the ball will give them a little better batting average. . . maybe 20 points or so, but I think Kepler's issues run deeper than that. The last couple of years when we all complained about Miguel Sano's excessive strikeouts, Kepler was essentially doing the same thing with weak contact and easy ground balls and the shift wasn't taking away any home runs. Joey Gallo we know less about, so I'm not as confident with the predictions. It would be amazing if we could get him back to vintage Gallo with lots of strikeouts but lots of run producing as well, but I would be exceedingly happy (as would the Twins) with a return to the "pretty good" Joey Gallo of a couple of years ago. That would be a fine addition to the lineup.