CarpetGuy

The Twins have slowly sunk from their spot in first place and are months removed from looking like a quality baseball team. As crunch time nears it’s justifiably the first thought that we want Buxton on the field no matter what to provide whatever spark he has left. It’s becoming more and more apparent for several reasons however that the Twins should just play it safe and shut their star down.
This Could Become a Bigger Injury
Buxton has dealt with a nagging knee and hip injury all season which almost certainly will take some sort of clean-up procedure this offseason. That being said, we can hope at this point that the issue can be fixed and healed to kick off 2023. We saw on Monday night however just how hobbled he is, catching balls on one leg and taking awkward follow-throughs after swings. With how physically compromised he is, there’s no doubt he’s putting himself at risk of much more serious injury as he’s forced to modify his mechanics in everything he does on the field.
An injury such as an ACL at this point would knock Buxton out for all of 2023, a season that should be prioritized at this point as the Twins are returning a better pitching staff on paper than they’ve had in several years. What Buxton has done this season is commendable, but it may have all come to a head on Monday night when he was pulled early and appeared to be completely incapable of continuing to play baseball any longer. He’s still a long-term asset for the Twins and we may have reached the point where that has to be valued above all else.
Buxton May Not Matter
Is there a case that the Twins best player not being in the lineup for the stretch run may not matter? I’d say yes given the context of the rest of the lineup. Buxton could go on an MVP level tear from now until the end of the season, and the Twins could still miss the playoffs because of what the rest of the lineup is doing. While Buxton has been struggling recently, the lineup’s inadequacies were front and center in a four-game series against the very bad Texas Rangers in which the Twins managed to score six runs total.
Injuries play a part with several potential spark plugs missing such as Larnach, Kirilloff and Lewis, but it’s hard to argue that regulars such as Correa, Polanco and Kepler haven’t pulled their weight in months. After a trade deadline in which the team patched up the pitching issues that plagued them all season, the offense has become embarrassingly bad, oftentimes being unable to overcome nights where the pitchers allow more than one run. In short, regardless of how Buxton does if the Twins rush him back, he’ll be surrounded in the lineup by some of the most anemic and situationally poor hitters in baseball for the last few months. One player can’t win all of these games. Is that worth the risk?
It would be a huge bummer to see yet another Byron Buxton season shut down by injury, but this is what we have to expect at this point. In many ways, it’s becoming more and more apparent that it’s time to set sights on 2023 with this very flawed team, and this is particularly true in the case of Byron Buxton. 
It’s a fact that a fundamentally sound roster would have opened up an insurmountable lead in the poor AL Central, and Buxton’s workload could have been managed more conservatively down the stretch as a result. Instead, the Twins are stuck in no man's land with a roster that’s difficult to take too seriously despite ample opportunity to control their own destiny. Their star was pushed beyond what should have been asked as a result. At this point, the overly aggressive push in regards to Byron Buxton should be done. The priority should be the long term. It’s time to shut him down and let the AL Central cards fall where they may. 
 

When a top prospect reaches the majors, it can be exciting for fans to watch a player start to unlock his full potential. The Twins have seen Jose Miranda emerge on the big-league scene with a 127 OPS+ in his first 78 games. According to FanGraphs, he has been worth $9.3 million in 2022. He also ranks fourth among Twins hitters in Win Probability Added as he trails only Luis Arraez, Byron Buxton, and Jorge Polanco. It has been a tremendous start to his career, but have the Twins seen enough to sign him long-term
On Tuesday, the Atlanta Braves agreed to a long-term extension with their own power-hitting rookie. Outfielder Michael Harris agreed to an eight-year, $72 million extension that will keep him in Atlanta through the 2030 season. The deal also includes team options for 2031 ($15 million) and 2032 ($20 million). The Braves are buying out his pre-arbitration and arbitration seasons so they can control his first two free agent seasons. Since Harris is 21 years old, he will still be able to reach free agency in his early 30s. 

Even though Miranda and Harris are both rookies, they aren’t exactly the same type of player. Harris is a dynamic centerfielder that provides value on both sides of the ball, while most of Miranda’s value is tied to his bat. Harris is also three years younger than Miranda and was a consensus top-100 prospect entering the season. In 2022, Miranda has played seven more games than Harris, but Harris has compiled 1.8 more WAR than Miranda. 
Three years ago, the Twins signed Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler to team-friendly extensions that bought out some of their free agent seasons. Polanco signed a five-year, $25.75 million deal with team options for 2024-25. Kepler’s deal was for five years, $32.12 million, with a team option for 2024. Since signing their extensions, Polanco has provided $76.8 million of value, while Kepler has been worth $68.1 million. Both players were roughly the same age as Miranda at the time of their extension. 

Minnesota doesn’t need to rush into a contract extension with Miranda since the team will have control of him throughout his 20s. It likely wouldn’t take a Harris-level deal to sign Miranda long-term and buy out some of his free agent seasons. The Twins have gotten tremendous value from the Polanco and Kepler extensions, so the team may want to find a middle ground to keep Miranda in Minnesota long-term. It will likely take a seven or eight year deal for $50 million or more to make an extension work for both sides. Miranda has the potential to be a middle-of-the-order bat for a long time, and that has tremendous value. 

Do you think the Twins should look to sign Miranda to a long-term extension? How much would you be willing to pay him? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
 

First, to put things into context, it’s worth noting that Correa has seen significant highs this season. He also still owns a 124 OPS+ which puts him well above league average offensively. As a shortstop, his arm remains among the best in the game and he’s been an anchor on the dirt while Minnesota has largely been terrible there defensively.
What once trended so positively has taken such a negative turn, however.
It’s been a weird progression for the former Houston Astro. Correa owned just a .633 OPS through the first month of the season, and then was hit by a pitch that had a significant amount of time being missed looking likely. That was particularly troublesome due to how he was trending at the time. In eight games before his finger injury, Correa was 14-for-34 with three doubles and a dinger.
He wound up missing 12 games and then pushed himself to near All-Star status. From May 18 through the end of June, a stretch of 32 games, Correa slashed .336/.400/.560 with seven doubles and seven homers. Largely unsustainable, that’s every bit the player Minnesota thought they were getting when signing him to such a mega deal. During that period, it looked increasingly likely that Correa would opt out of his three-year deal and angle towards a longer-term extension.
Since that point, it’s been nothing but the opposite. In 28 games from July 1 through August 8, Correa has slashed a paltry .186/.294/.333. He has just three doubles and four home runs in that span while still being relied upon near the top of the Twins lineup. It’s certainly not feasible for this slide to continue if Minnesota wants to remain atop the AL Central division, and this production progressing for a few more months certainly hurts and ability to corner the market in looking for a new deal.
By fWAR, Correa has yet to surpass 2.0 on the season which would mark only the first time it’s happened during the course of his career. Playing at a career-worst clip while trying to generate another payday is probably not a great strategy. In return on investment terms, Fangraphs values Correa’s production has been worth $13.3 million thus far in 2022, or less than half of what Minnesota has already committed to him.
Taking a look at the two rolling windows of differing production, there’s some obvious difference. During the May through June stretch, Correa had a 36.5% hard-hit rate with a 14.6% barrel percentage. He was chasing just over 30% of the time, but whiffing only 9.6% of the time. Fast forward to where we are now and the hard hit rate has dropped 4% with the barrel rate down 5%. He’s actually chasing and missing less, which suggests an issue regarding the quality of contact.
While he’s been going poorly, Correa has put the ball on the ground 45.8% of the time. He’s pulled it a bit less and utilized the middle more, but his line drive rate sits at a sad 13.3%. This all comes on an average launch angle of 11.8 degrees. The difference here is minute, but could be creating the issue. When Correa was going well he owned a 12.2-degree launch angle and was hitting line drives over 20% of the time. Nearly 50% of his contact was to the pull side.
This is something Twins teammate Max Kepler has seen at times as well. The idea of lifting the baseball and hitting for power doesn’t necessarily have to translate into homers. Correa is the prototypical power guy that doesn’t have to sacrifice misses. He bludgeons doubles and routinely sends the ball out. Pulling it down the left field line at Target Field is the easiest path for him to walk the bases. A slight amount of additional lift for Correa changes things from being a hard grounder to a hard line drive. One of those two outcomes has a substantially better success rate.
We’ve now seen Correa go through a period of poor hitting largely equivalent to the time he spent insanely hot. The hope would be that the final stretch is another window of production. It would definitely increase the Twins outlook towards the postseason, and ultimately for the Scott Boras client, is the only way he’ll be able to position himself handsomely back on the open market.

There is nothing more exciting to me than newcomers to baseball. Having new fans in a sport when many people are starting to turn away shows that baseball truly is America's favorite pastime. Her introduction to baseball was not from growing up in Minnesota; she had never really watched it, period. Her boyfriend is from Canada and is a life-long Blue Jays fan. He would have the game on every time they played and even traveled to watch them in the playoffs in Kansas City in 2016. He did not miss a game, and consequently, neither did Rena. 
At the beginning of our interview, she makes an accurate, bold statement, "As a new fan, the game is boring. You don't know what's going on, and you don't know the teams." 
She is not wrong. So what made her change her mind? Like me, she started by watching the pitcher when I started watching. The pitcher is one of the unique players on the team. The game is centered around the pitcher and how they perform, so watching them can put many pieces together.  
Over time, from watching the game with her boyfriend, she started to see little things that pitchers did, their delivery and mechanics. This led to her watching the other players, why each player is essential, how they play their position and how they interact. 
Rena was so intrigued by what she was watching that she eventually her fandom moved from watching with her boyfriend, to having it on in the background, to watching games when she was by herself. The first time she turned on the TV to watch by herself and immerse herself in her new hobby, the catalyst to her love of baseball was the 2017 World Series with the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Houston Astros. 
She loved the excitement of the game, but her excitement came because she had no dog in the fight and could see the rigors of competition. Rena watched intently and learned who the players were and the strategies that they were using in the games to get an advantage over the other team. She figured out quickly by watching that they use certain players in the lineup based on their ability to hit singles, doubles, clean up, or even strikeout. There was a strategy to the game, and she loved that. 

As frustrating as that was to hear that the 2017 Astros are what got her interested in the game, at least Minnesota and Twins baseball got something good out of that series, a new baseball fan. She went in full throttle with her newfound hobby and listened to the "Baseball Tonight" podcast. She would listen to the podcast and then watch a clip or game to soak in what they explained in the episode she had just heard. 
As Rena began to understand what they were talking about, she took to Twitter, where she (and many of us) began to voice her thoughts and feelings about baseball in a segment called "Bleacher Tweets" through Baseball Tonight at the end of their show. 
"Since it was a new hobby, I had many questions," Rena explains, "I wanted to know their perspective, and eventually, I befriended the host." 
Because she was a new fan and stats were huge in the baseball community, the host appreciated the banter and questions she was bringing to the table. Even though she liked the stats and understood them, she was more a fan of the game and brought a fresh perspective to the host. They appreciated her perspective so much they brought her onto the podcast to talk about her insights on baseball. She stayed there for a year, and that's when Twins Daily noticed and came knocking on her twitter door. They noticed that she was from Minnesota and savvy in baseball; she also now was tweeting about the Twins. 
Even though she loved baseball initially because of Bally Sports North (formerly FSN), she watched more Twins games, and her love and allegiance were solid with the Twins. 
Because she is passionate about the game, she cares about the players. She wanted something and someone to root for. She is quick to defend her favorite players and loves to cheer for those who have moved on, like Eddie Rosario and Nelson Cruz. She is an Eddie Rosario stan and his biggest fan no matter where he goes. 
Rena enjoyed the growth being on the podcast brought her. She also really loved the idea that the podcast host had a lot of diversity in his program; he had a lot of different perspectives, demographics, and women on the show. We discussed the tremendous growth of women in baseball. Rena wanted to bring a new face to content instead of the day-to-day stats and numbers. She likes to stray away from the norm, writing about what she would want to read or see. That stuck with me. As a baseball fan and writer, I struggle with the "norm" and write what I want to see, whether that is an op-ed or being Jake Cave's biggest fan. There is room for all fans, and plenty of talented writers have unique perspectives and voices. 
Rena and I both write for Twins Daily. She is one of the reasons I was excited to contact Nick Nelson in a brave DM and ask him for an opportunity to write for them. I watched her tweets and articles over the past two seasons. She has a great tone in her writing and an insatiable knowledge of the game. She loves to write about the fun stuff, or as she calls it, the "fluff," and she does indeed write about the fun stuff. 

During the lockout, Rena had a series called "Things Twins Players Did This Week," It was full of fun, cute tweets and pictures of the players and their families during the holidays or doing charitable work. We both love to get people to think outside the box and challenge people to see different angles of baseball when it comes to the game, players' lives, and the Twins organization. 
I was shocked to find out that Rena does not work for Twins Daily all the time. Her knowledge of the game, the players, and the numbers would lead me to believe otherwise. She helps promote the website on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. She loves getting behind the promotion part of the job and bringing attention to Twins Daily. 
One of the goals of Twins Daily social media is growing. Rena, along with the rest of the team, wants Twins Daily to be the go-to website for Minnesota Twins news. So how do they do that? By giving the collective a voice, promoting articles in a fun, exciting manner.
The social media team has indeed done that. Twins Daily has been successful with traffic and followers, a considerable concern we had during the lockout. It's hard to write about baseball when there is none, so brainstorming what to write is just as important on how to promote the writing. Rena loves to create a voice for Twitter because that's where the most activity is for Twins Daily followers and Twins fans. Creating content and discussion is one of the things that Rena is good at. 
We discussed the journey through journalism as women and having a voice as baseball fans and writers. I told her that my biggest fear is being professional, and I am known for my loud voice and perspective on not always loving players and having to behave and respond with information and no profanity (!!). Being a fan opens you up for ridicule, but being a female baseball fan on social media carries its responsibility because ridicule can be far worse as women's knowledge of sports is held to a standard of knowing stats from 1983 and "name five players." She admits there are times when she is ready to send out a tweet and goes back and double-checks it because she knows that the scrutiny is more vigorous for females than it is for males in the industry. 
As an Asian-American female, she is also very aware of representation. She and I had a heart-to-heart about her desire to hopefully bring more awareness to Asian-American women in sports and the players. One of her favorite players is Shohei Ohtani. She loves seeing the Asian representation in baseball and hopes it continues to grow. I loved her honesty with me about her strength in being a minority writer and fan in our favorite sport. While she knows sometimes she has to check her tweets twice, she also is confident in her understanding and knowledge of the intricacies of baseball. 
She combines her love of baseball and her heritage in this astounding article where she interviewed Tzu-Wei Lin, who was an MVP at the age of 16 from Taiwan. She got a chance to speak in her native language of Mandarin, to one of her favorite ball players about their favorite game. The article is inspiring and she is proud of the opportunity she had to get to know Lin. 
Rena makes me want to be a better writer, fan, and person. To know that there are women out there that love the game as much as I do is motivating. We can carry on a conversation about the game, and having a desire for the game to grow in representation (as well as fandom around the world) gives me hope that this game will never indeed die. 
Rena is one of the strongest baseball minds I know. She is intelligent, funny, intuitive, and full of insight and ideas that bring Twins Daily new followers and readers. Rena is also one of my closest friends and will do anything for me at the drop of a hat. She is a force to be reckoned with if you go up against her in baseball knowledge, but she is compassionate and loving and genuinely wants everyone to love the sport that brings her happiness. She brings so much fun to Twins Daily, its followers, and Twitter; if you don't follow her, you are truly missing out. 

Make sure to check out Rena's Twins Daily Page below! 
@renabanena
Find her on social media:
Twitter: @renabanena