Hunter48

Coming into the weekend, Byron Buxton has put up a tremendous season so far. He’s 36% above league average offensively according to wRC+ and has topped his career-high in home runs, well on his way to over 40 despite regular rest days. That being said, it's been a puzzling season for the Twins' star center fielder. While we can’t complain about his performance to date, it is worth wondering about Buxton moving forward.
The goal has always been to keep Byron Buxton healthy. Since 2019, he has been a well above league-average hitter whenever he’s been on the field. The Twins have accomplished that to an extent this season, as he’s avoided any IL trips thus far despite a few small injuries here and there leading to short absences. It’s widely understood that Buxton has been and will likely continue working through a chronic knee injury suffered in Boston back in April. Just something to keep in mind when looking at Buxton’s season.
As you can see, Buxton’s season consists of incredibly high highs and incredibly low lows. It’s possible that these brutal streaks coincide with flare-ups of his ailing knee, an issue that unfortunately doesn’t appear to be going away anytime soon. One thing is for certain, however, after a shortened 2021 season in which he would have paced out as one of the best in baseball, he’s completely changed his approach.
After an unbelievably well-rounded line of .306/.358/.647 in 2021, Buxton has essentially failed to provide anything at all at the plate aside from power. His .218 batting average is his worst mark since 2018 and his .293 OBP is his worst since 2020, a season in which he walked only 1.5% of the time. While he’s having a career year in terms of walk rate (7.9%), his strikeout rate of 28.2% is his highest since 2018 as well. His batting average on balls in play of .210 is also a career-worst by a long shot. Why might that be?
After a shortened 2021 season in which Buxton was one of the best hitters in baseball, his flyball rate has absolutely exploded from 38.4 to 50.3%. To put it simply, in more than half of his batted ball events he’s hitting the ball in the air. 26.5% of those fly balls have found the seats, but the other 73.5% are easy outs. This increase in fly balls has come at the expense of his line drives, a batted ball type that typically rewards hitters league-wide with a near .700 batting average. It’s worth noting that Buxton’s quality of contact remains intact and has afforded him a .262 xBA and .358 xWOBA to this point, but it seems flyball-oriented hitters league wide have underperformed so far in 2022.
Regarding the short term, it’s worth considering how such a flawed plate approach could affect him moving forward. Since May 11, Buxton is slashing .192/.273/.479, still a 110 wRC+, but nowhere near the superstar levels we’ve seen him achieve in the past. The entirety of that measure comes strictly from slugging percentage, as the batting average and on-base ability are quite frankly terrible. Masking those numbers are several high-profile home runs in the clutch, a trait that many believe isn’t a predictive or repeatable skill. His overall batting line wouldn’t change if just a few of his homers hadn’t come in such clutch spots, but would the perception around him change at all?
In the long term, you have to desperately hope this change in approach isn’t an active choice that he intends to continue. We’ve seen that Buxton is still a valuable player while he’s selling out for fly balls, but becoming so one-dimension offensively cuts off any chance of being the MVP level player he’s capable of being. Furthermore, he’s able to take the mistakes he’s given and drive them over the fence regularly enough to mask his other deficiencies in 2022. What happens a few years down the road when that ability decreases with age?
There’s no action to take with Byron Buxton at this time, and it’s incredibly hard to be dissatisfied with his season thus far. Still, it’s worth pointing out that there has been a major change in his approach this season that has made him a decidedly worse offensive player. This “sell out for fly balls” approach has resulted in just three more big flies than he had in a near-identical amount of plate appearances in 2021, and every other offensive stat of his has suffered greatly as a result. Hitting home runs is fun, but he’s going to have to continue to do so in high-leverage spots to make any meaningful contributions on offense.
Perhaps it’s his knee injury, or perhaps it was an active choice to get the ball in the air as much as possible coming into the season. Either way, after several brutal stretches already this season followed by glimpses of what Byron Buxton can be, hopefully another change in approach is on the horizon. 
Perhaps it’s not fair to judge the way somebody achieves success. In Buxton’s case, however, it’s so hard to imagine why we’re seeing such a dramatic shift in approach coming off an MVP-caliber performance. Does this change in approach concern you? Are you happy to enjoy the big flies while they last and worry about the future when we get there? Let us know below!
 

Last week I wrote a Trade Manifesto presenting 49 names that could be a potential fit to the Twins rosters. It’s on the mound that most of the focus should be pointed, but there’s little reason to turn away from a competent hitter if a fit is deemed strong and valuable.
The 5 Best Starting Pitching Trade Targets The 5 Best Relief Pitching Trade Targets Rocco Baldelli’s club is less pressed in the lineup, even though they’ve gone silent at times. Jose Miranda and Alex Kirilloff have solidified first base for the most part, and Jorge Polanco has returned healthy at second base. Minnesota has flexibility at third, and Luis Arraez has been great about filling in wherever. The outfield is also largely set and knowing Trevor Larnach will be back helps.
If the Twins were to acquire a bat, it probably comes as a utility type or behind the plate.
Here are the five best names from the Trade Manifesto that they could acquire:
Brandon Drury - Cincinnati Reds - 29 yrs old 1.9 fWAR 16 HR 124 OPS+
The Reds have plenty to piece out, and while they aren’t as bad as they started, this isn’t an organization that wants to win either. Drury is a stereotypical utility man that can play all over the diamond. He’s played every infield position aside from appearing behind the plate this season, and he was previously an outfielder at times for both the Mets and Blue Jays. This is easily a career year for the veteran, and the Reds will look to extract value out of a guy making just $900k. He did put up a solid 2021 season as well, but both of these sample sizes are relatively small. Drury is posting a career best 11% barrel rate, but his expected stats are below actual production. He’s seen success by lowering whiff and chase rates which is a solid procedural change. A free agent following the season, there shouldn’t be much in the way of acquisition cost here.
Christian Walker - Arizona Diamondbacks - 31 yrs old 1.9 fWAR 21 HR 123 OPS+
You could call Walker a slugger at first base but that would be selling his impact short. Yes, he blasts the ball into the seats and isn’t a high average guy by any means, but he’s also a very good defender. With 12 defensive runs saved and eight outs above average, he brings plenty of value to the lineup. Walker’s expected batting average is also nearly 70 points higher than it currently rests, and his expected slugging percentage checks in at a whopping .598. He’s barrelling baseballs at a ridiculous 15% of the time, and his .183 BABIP suggests even more offense could be had here. Walker is playing on a $2.6 million deal this season and remains under team control for each of the next two seasons. Minnesota making a move at first base would largely be reflective of how they want to use Miranda, Kirilloff, and Gio Urshela.
Ian Happ - Chicago Cubs - 27 yrs old 2.3 fWAR 8 HR 136 OPS+
A former 9th overall pick, Happ’s value isn’t solely rooted in the longball. He’s at home in the outfield and would be able to play a strong centerfield, but he can also play on the dirt. Happ has previously earned MVP votes and he’s posted better than a league-average OPS+ each of his six pro seasons. Happ’s barrel rate is down some, but his expected slugging percentage suggests there’s a bit of room to grow. He’s never previously experienced this muted level of home run production, and coming off of 25 last year, a second half surge may happen for an acquiring club. Happ is making $6.85 million this year and is arbitration eligible again in 2023 before becoming a free agent.
Josh Bell - Washington Nationals - 29 yrs old 2.5 fWAR 12 HR 164 OPS+ 
On a one-year deal with the Nationals, it always seemed like Bell may wind up as trade fodder at the deadline. He hasn’t produced the same home run numbers we’ve seen from him before, but this is a career year by every other measure. Bell’s hard hit rate dropping below 30% for the first time in his career is likely part of the lost power, but his 8.8% whiff rate is lower than anything he’s shown since 2016 with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Traditionally somewhat of a lackluster defensive option, he’s produced positive numbers by both DRS and OAA this season. Bell should be one of the most coveted bats on the market this year, and at $10 million, for the season, his remaining money won’t be substantial.
Willson Contreras - Chicago Cubs - 30 yrs old 22.9 fWAR 13 HR 152 OPS+
The Cubs have some very intriguing options all over the diamond, but there’s no denying the best talent is their catcher, Contreras. Offensively he’s pulverizing the baseball and experiencing a career year. The expected stats suggest this is substantiated, and if anything, may trend even further upwards. The 44.8% hard hit rate is a career high, and not at all a surprise with how well he’s seeing the ball at the plate. A knock is probably the defense, which has not previously been the case. After 8 DRS last season, Contreras is at -6 thus far in 2022. He’s not a good framer either, but is throwing out a league average amount of would be base stealers. Minnesota may benefit from a catching upgrade, but it’d be quite a luxury for them to go get the best bat available at the position. Cabrera is making $9.625 million this season in his final year of arbitration, and he’ll be a free agent following the season.
If Minnesota targets a bat, who would you like them to grab and why?
 

The current iteration of the Minnesota Twins has numerous ties to the Tampa Bay Rays, including their manager and multiple members of the front office ranks. As such, maybe it should come as no surprise that they've targeted a handful of former Rays closers – Alex Colomé, Sergio Romo, Emilio Pagán – through various means, installing them in similar roles here. 
The Colomé signing, as we know, was a disaster. The Pagán trade is shaping up similarly. But here's the thing: Pagán may still be salvageable, and Colomé's example is a guiding light we can follow to this conclusion.
It's easy to focus on the nightmare that was Colomé's April of 2021 – just as it's easy to focus on the nightmare that was Pagán's past couple weeks. But the reality is, even for a below-average reliever, once you remove the ugliest parts of a season, the rest tends to look okay. 
From May 1st until the end of last year, Colomé was completely fine: 56.1 IP, 3.51 ERA, 15-fo-19 on saves. Pagán had the reverse experience in San Diego – he had a 3.31 ERA on August 31st before completely falling apart in September. 
This year, Colomé is back to his old self, more or less, with a 2.45 ERA and no home runs allowed through 30 appearances for the Rockies. Pagán's "true self" might not be anything great but it's not nearly as bad as his latest stretch. And unless you think he's cooked, we probably just witnessed the worst of Pagán's 2022 season, meaning the best (or at least better) is yet to come. 
Here are a few reasons I find this plausible:
He's throwing as hard as ever. In terms of raw stuff, there's no reason to think Pagán has lost his edge. He's averaging 95.2 MPH with his fastball (second only to his career-high 95.5 in 2019) and his spin rate on that pitch ranks in the 94th percentile.  He has legitimately good pitches. The aforementioned fastball is holding opponents to a .190 average, even while he's struggled to locate it. His splitter has been truly dominant, with a .192 xwOBA and 39% whiff rate. He's throwing it less often than his cutter, which has been obliterated. I'm not going to act like that's some groundbreaking insight because obviously Twins coaches are aware of this data, but there's a real chance that pitch-mix adjustments make a big difference here. He's got the best credentials of anyone in this bullpen. That might change once Jhoan Duran's rookie season is over, but for now, no one in this relief corps can boast superior bona fides to Pagán and his sensational 2019 season in Tampa. He was a lights-out bullpen weapon for a 96-win team, posting a 2.31 ERA and 96-to-13 K/BB ratio over 70 innings.  By the time Colomé came around last year, the campaign was already effectively sunk. His solid work in the second half was basically irrelevant. But Pagán still has a chance to make good. His struggles against Cleveland definitely stung, but the Twins still find themselves in first place by a decent margin.
To hold on the rest of the way, they'll need all the help they can get from the bullpen, Pagán included. If he can harness the aforementioned strengths and get on a bit of a run – even the kind of luck-aided run that propelled him to a 2.45 ERA through mid-June – he could turn himself from part of the problem to part of the solution.
From there? Who knows. While Colomé gave the Twins no real reason to consider exercising his 2022 option, Pagán has one more remaining year of control, and it's part of the reason they were drawn to him. A good second-half run could potentially punch his 2023 ticket. Keep in mind, Minnesota's bullpen has no veteran stability going forward – Taylor Rogers is gone, and Tyler Duffey and Joe Smith are expected to move on after this season.
Pagán has been through the wringer, and it'll take a long time to earn back the trust of fans, but the path to redemption is right in front of him. He has what it takes to follow it.
"I truly believe that with the way I'm throwing it, when you look up at the end of the year," Pagan said a few days ago, "I'm going to be one of the best relievers in baseball numbers-wise."
Alright, then. Let's see it.
 

In recent years, Nelson Cruz seemed to be defying Father Time. From age 38 to 40 seasons, he posted a 151 OPS+ while averaging 30 home runs per season. At an age when many players are significantly declining, he was accomplishing things few players had done in their careers. Cruz had many memorable moments with the Twins, and his lasting legacy may be the players the Twins received when trading him to Tampa Bay. 

The Twins had an opportunity to bring Cruz back for the 2022 season, but the National League adding the designated hitter created other opportunities for his services. He signed a one-year $12 million deal with the Nationals and got off to a slow start. Cruz ended the month of April with a .479 OPS and more strikeouts (17) than hits (13). It looked like Father Time had caught up to the slugger, but then something clicked. From May 6 through July 3, Cruz hit .289/.367/.449 (.816) with 12 doubles and six home runs in 51 games. He might not produce like the old Boomstick, but he is undoubtedly an above-average hitter in a declining offensive environment.
Other Statcast numbers also point to Cruz being closer to his former self. He ranks in the 70th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, hard-hit %, xwOBA, xSLG, and BB%. His Barrel percentage is among the league’s best as he nearly ranks in the 90th percentile. There is a lot of season left, and Cruz has something contending teams may be interested in adding to their roster. 

Some contending teams looking for a bench bat may be scared away by Cruz’s age, and his performance declined in the second half of 2021. After the Twins traded Cruz, he hit .226/.283/.442 (.725) with eight doubles and 13 home runs in 55 games. Both Tampa Bay and Cruz struggled in the playoffs as he went 3-for-17 (.176 BA) and the Red Sox eliminated the Rays. The 162-game schedule can be grueling for players, especially for those over the age of 40. 

For the 2022 Twins, Cruz may be a superfluous addition to the roster. Adding him would allow Ryan Jeffers and Gary Sanchez to get more regular rest on the days they aren’t catching. Miguel Sano is on track to return to the roster in the second half and doesn’t have a clear path to playing time. Cruz was a vocal leader in the clubhouse, but the Twins players and coaches have been adamant about the difference in clubhouse culture this season. Other players have taken on the leadership role, which seems to work for the club. 

This year’s trade deadline is also different from previous years due to the expansion of teams in the playoffs and the National League having the DH. More teams are in contention, and more teams will be interested in adding a big bat for the stretch run. It remains to be seen if Cruz can continue his hot-hitting ways or will this finally be the season where Father Time comes calling. 

Do you think the Twins should try and acquire Cruz? How do you predict he will do in the season’s second half? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
 

The above graph shows each hitter's June OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) compared to their OPS from April & May. A few notes:
Team OPS in April & May: 0.684 ... team OPS in June: 0.720 The biggest boost is Alex Kirilloff, whose newfound comfort in his wrist will change the Twins lineup for the better. The biggest June bust is Trevor Larnach, whose core injury surely played a part. The Twins have also gotten big improvements in June from Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Jorge Polanco. It's clear that the top half of the Twins lineup will be a force to be reckoned with going forward. Is it time to start giving José Miranda a more regular role? With an 0.862 OPS, he outperformed both Gio Urshela and Gary Sánchez in June, two players whose positions (3B and DH respectively) Miranda could adequately fill. If the Twins bullpen can find its feet, they should get back on track in July, because almost every part of this lineup is heating up.
 
 

Defense wins championships is a common mantra in professional sports. In baseball, defensive metrics have taken time and technology to assist in evaluating the actual value provided by players. When the Twins signed Carlos Correa, Minnesota projected to have one of baseball’s best up-the-middle defensive groups. However, the team has struggled defensively this season, and most of the issues are tied to a few key players.

According to Outs Above Average (OAA), the Twins rank 22nd in baseball, with only two American League clubs lower in the rankings. Four players have contributed -19 OAA to the team’s overall total, including Luis Arraez (-7), Gio Urshela (-5), Carlos Correa (-4), and Jose Miranda (-3). Correa’s inclusion on this list might be the most surprising as he was arguably baseball’s best defender in 2021 on his way to winning the AL’s Platinum Glove. Outs Above Average isn’t the only metric that paints the Twins negatively. 

Minnesota currently ranks 19th in runs prevented, slightly better than their OAA ranking. However, the Twins’ defenders have posted a -4 runs prevented with only three AL team’s currently ranking below them. One of the areas the Twins struggle with the most is coming in on the ball. Only one team, the Yankees (-9), has a lower ranking than the Twins (-8) when coming in on the ball. 

Behind the plate, Ryan Jeffers and Gary Sanchez have both made improvements. Sanchez came to the Twins as one of baseball’s worst defenders. His framing skills have jumped from the 17th percentile in 2021 to the 51st percentile in 2022. Jeffers has seen his framing move from the 74th percentile to the 78th percentile but is below average as he struggles to control the running game. Catching defense could have been an issue this year, but it’s hardly been the team’s biggest problem. 

FanGraphs utilizes multiple defensive metrics that also show Minnesota’s defensive flaws. According to FanGraphs DEF rankings, the Twins are currently the 22nd best team with a -5/2 DEF total. Out of AL squads, only the White Sox and the Rangers rank worse than the Twins. Minnesota ranks similarly bad in other more traditional defensive metrics like defensive runs saved (20th) and UZR (15th). Overall, not every Twins player is having a terrible defensive season. 

Five Twins players have a positive OAA total, including Max Kepler and Byron Buxton, who lead the team with five OAA each. Gilberto Celestino currently ranks third with three OAA; Royce Lewis and Trevor Larnach are tied with one OAA each. Buxton has been getting scheduled days off and time at DH, so his total likely would be higher with increased playing time. Kepler has been an above-average defender in the past, and the metrics prove that he is still doing well. Celestino was considered a good defender as a prospect, and that tool has transitioned to the big-league level.

Minnesota’s biggest issue is the negative defensive totals compiled by Correa and Urshela. Arraez has been bad, but he’s also been playing significant time at first base, a new position for him. Correa’s bat continues to provide value, but he needs to produce at a high level on both sides of the ball. When the Twins acquired Urshela, he wasn’t considered an above-average defender, but he’s been one of the AL’s worst defenders at third. 

If the Twins want to improve defensively, it’s hard to pinpoint the best solution. Replacing Urshela at third isn’t an easy fix because the replacement options (Arraez and Miranda) aren’t considered strong defenders. Correa can improve his defensive numbers, which would alter the entire team’s defensive profile. Neither of these solutions is guaranteed to work, and none of these names will be voluntarily removed from the line-up. 

Bad defensive plays can lead to bad innings and a snowball effect for all players involved. How do you think the Twins can improve their defense? Have you noticed the team’s defensive struggles this year? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

When Minnesota was pondering whether they should offer Byron Buxton a contract or not, it was likely always a discussion of how much and not should we or should we not. On the open market, if he’d been a pillar of health, someone with Buxton’s talent would’ve seen a payday well over $300 million. The caveat is that he is not often healthy, and that’s where opportunity swung towards the Twins.
For a franchise that’s been synonymous with small spending at times, or criticized for allowing their stars to walk, Buxton was only within the realm of possibility because of his injuries. Negotiating solely with the team he knows rather than testing the open market was, in part, because of the worry that injury may play a factor before the discussions got started.
There was no point in which an incentive-laden contract would hurt Minnesota’s future spending capabilities, and something as paltry as $14 million annually was bound to be surpassed in short order. Well, welcome to short order.
Minnesota is just 67 games into their 2022 season, of which Buxton has played just 49 games. He has an .897 OPS and has already equaled his career-high in homers. He remains a defensive superstar, even while moonlighting as a designated hitter, and is already valued having been worth 2.3 fWAR for the Twins. Fangraphs puts a valuation on WAR and has Buxton at $18.5 million. He’s twice been worth more than $33 million in a season, and even with the decreased workload, it’s conceivable he’ll surpass that value this season.
As Buxton's playing time continues to be managed by the Twins, the expectation is that he’ll wind up playing something near 110 games. Although you’d certainly like to see him in the lineup more often than that, a significant contribution is still felt and he could be fresher for the games that matter in the postseason.
The incentives Buxton has included in his contract will always push him to get more from himself. They are largely award-based, and votes for an MVP award will likely be hard to come by if he’s not on the field a more significant amount of time. That said, it’s clear that there’s no letdown from the days off, and each time he’s out there he’s making the most of it.
In a way, this season is largely reflective of the contract Minnesota gave their superstar. Buxton didn’t land the exorbitant payday because of availability, but he was still rewarded handsomely, and in turn, does so for the Twins each time he’s on the field. There was very little way for the deal to go pear-shaped, and we could be talking about a guy that’s nearly doubling up the value of his paycheck with a few years left on it.
 

Carlos Correa’s current contract is a three-year deal for $105.3 million. The deal is noteworthy for a couple of reasons. First, the opt-out comes after year one, in which Correa could look for another payday on the open market with a different group of shortstop competition. The other level of intrigue comes from the $35.1 annual amount, which checks in $100,000 more than Anthony Rendon’s deal. That $100,000 put him above the other Scott Boras client and made Correa the highest-paid infielder in Major League history.
Of course, the expectation has always been that Correa would opt out with Minnesota and look for a bigger payday. He did indicate there was interest in a long-term deal with the Twins though, and the second ACL tear for Royce Lewis could clear the way for a stable need at shortstop. Assuming both sides are interested in finding a workable future, the one-up of this contract may also come into play.
Rendon’s deal was signed with the third basemen at the age of 30. He was paid $245 million for seven years. It’s been a colossal disaster in that he’s played just 155 games over his first three seasons with the Angels. Correa will be just 28 years old next season, a notably younger age than that of Rendon. It would hardly be shocking if the desire was for any extension to be something in the neighborhood of 10 years.
Minnesota has not previously gone long term with pitchers under this regime, but they have shown an inclination to spend. Getting the Twins to hand out a ten-year deal to Correa seems unlikely from both a term and financial perspective. Knowing that a deal of that size would be something like $350 million probably takes it off the table. If Correa was open to a seven-year pact, however, this front office may find value in paying a superstar at an integral position something like $250 million.
If Correa was open to a $35.5 million annual number, he’d be at $248.5 million over the life of the deal. Maybe that’s not enough of a step up from what Rendon got given the two years of age to his credit, but that’s probably a ballpark worth hypothesizing about.
No matter what the eventual number winds up being, it’s hard to wrap your mind around the Twins being the team to dole out that cash. On the flip side, this is a player they will have gotten to know for a full season, and has been lauded for his leadership and ability throughout the organization. With no surefire answer at the shortstop position for 2023, the alternative is likely a much lesser stopgap option.
This core of Twins talent is exciting and seems to mesh well together. Putting Lewis and Correa on the same side of the infield for the next handful of years is something everyone in Twins Territory could get behind. Like Buxton before him, Correa would be in a place providing Minnesota sole negotiating opportunity. They aren’t going to get the discount afforded them by their other superstar, but this one stays on the field and should be worth every penny as well.
Some deadline additions and a postseason run could continue to help Minnesota make its case as a compelling suitor for Correa. So far they've put the right feet forward. The next one will be to present the bag.
 

My colleague Nick Nelson recently wrote an article about Ryan Jeffers, outwardly wondering if the team mistakenly bestowed principal catching duties onto the former UNC Wilmington standout. While he never explicitly says it, and I would never want to speak for someone else, I walked away from the piece believing that he thinks that the Twins should not assume Jeffers to be a consistent, everyday starter for them unless he undergoes a serious evolution.
Without a doubt, Jeffers’ initial hitting numbers are dreadful, mimicking Tim Laudnerian batting prowess instead of the league-average flirtation we expected from him. His career .202/.280/.378 slash line is dragged down by an even poorer .181/.271/.312 2022 season so far. The Manfred Mushball can’t explain that away. Jeffers’s initial 2020 offensive promise seems to be a mirage; he has failed to sniff even league-average production since that year. 
However, there are under-the-hood stats that tell a different story. Dan Syzmborski’s recent Fangraphs article detailing under and over-performers based on his secret “z” stats caught my eye. Scrolling down a little to his “zSLUG Underachievers” list will procure a list of names, including our subject for today: Ryan Jeffers. ZIPS believes that Jeffers should be slugging .441—a number in the ballpark of Matt Olson's (.440) and Freddie Freeman's (.441) production levels, not the Adam Frazier (.309) plateau he currently sits at. Syzmborski’s projection system is his creation, so how it reaches that conclusion is hidden from us regulars, but it’s a good sign nonetheless. 
There are other numbers as well. His Baseball Savant page doesn’t reflect un-impeachable elite performance like one sees from an Aaron Judge or a Mike Trout, but it does tell a tale of an unlucky slugger. Jeffers’ xwOBA is .339—right above league average for all hitters. Digging deeper, his barrel rate of 9.0%—a stat that indicates specific instances of a player hitting the crap out of the ball—puts him in elite territory; 26th amongst all qualified batters in MLB. Barrels aren’t an end-all stat—a player like Luis Arraez can be great because of other characteristics—but it is indicative of extra-base damage, and Jeffers’ current production does not reflect how much impact his bat has.
There are other, more subtle numbers as well. Jeffers has tightened his command of the strike zone; his O-Swing % is down to 28.5, while his overall swinging strike rate has plummeted to 9.6%. Believe it or not, he swings at pitches outside the zone at the same rate as Luis Arraez (28.5%), and he whiffs at about the same rate as Paul Goldschmidt (9.5%). His total contact has also vastly improved (72.0% career vs. 78.5% in 2022, around Francisco Lindor territory (78.7%)). Those discipline numbers aren’t elite by any means, but they are average if not above-average in some cases, and average production would be a tremendous improvement for Jeffers.
Jeffers’ walk rate reflects these changes (10.9%, up from 8.6%), while his strikeouts have dipped slightly, but probably less than one would expect (30.1%, down from 34.1%). I believe those punchouts will drop even further, given his improved plate control.
Ryan Jeffers hits the ball hard at an elite level, has improved his plate discipline numbers across the board, and has worse surface-level hitting stats than before. That should change soon. The often-maligned 25-year-old has a good process in place; he has not found the final crucial step in unlocking his potential: luck. Once fortune turns in his direction, Jeffers will find himself as one of the better catchers in the game.
 

The Twins’ bullpen has been better than average this year. As a collective unit, they rank seventh in MLB in bullpen WPA with 1.55 wins added. However, Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Joe Smith have combined for 3.06 wins added. The rest of the Twins’ bullpen has been worth -1.51 wins. This is primarily due to Tyler Duffey, who has a WPA of -1.32, which is fifth-worst among all major league relievers in 2022. In the major leagues, you can’t just throw the same three bullpen arms every night, so the Twins need to find another bullpen arm that they could use in high leverage situations. Enter Trevor Megill.
Megill, who the Twins signed on a minor league deal right before the lockout, has been good in limited innings this year in the bullpen. In ten and ⅔ innings, Megill has only allowed three earned runs on eight hits and four walks. He has struck out 13 hitters, seven with the fastball and six with the curveball. Megill has some of the best stuff on the Twins, and there is data to back that up.
Megill’s fastball averages 97.1 miles per hour, which places him in the 95th percentile of all major league pitchers. His fastball also has incredible spin, as his fastball spin rate is 2424 revolutions per minute, which places him in the 91st percentile of all pitchers. Using Pitch Profiler, a tool created by Jeremy Maschino, you can view any major league pitcher and various statistics about their pitch mix.
One important metric that many people are starting to use to evaluate a pitcher’s repertoire is Stuff+. Stuff+ gives a pitcher a rating of how good a pitcher’s repertoire is compared to the rest of the league. This rating is based on a variety of things such as pitch velocity, vertical break, horizontal break, arm angle, and release extension. Megill has a Stuff+ rating of 108, putting him in the 78th percentile of all major league pitchers. The average Stuff+ rating is 100, which means Megill’s stuff is eight percent better than the league average. Using Maschino’s tool, Megill’s stuff+ rating on his fastball is 108, meaning he has an above league average fastball in terms of velocity and movement.

Megill’s curveball is also an outstanding pitch. According to Baseball Savant, Megill’s curveball has seven more inches of vertical movement than the league average curveball does, good for tenth among all major league pitchers who have thrown at least 50 curveballs. According to Pitch Profiler, Megill’s curveball has a 107 stuff+ rating, which means he has two pitches above league average.
A pitcher’s stuff can only take him so far. A pitcher can have good stuff and fail to get outs. Take former Twin Brusdar Graterol, who has a stuff+ rating of 116, in the 95th percentile of all pitchers. His sinker is 99.9 miles per hour, second among all pitchers. However, this doesn’t lead to success, as Graterol has a 4.81 ERA and 3.84 FIP.
In Megill’s limited opportunities, he has allowed only three runs in ten and ⅔ innings for an ERA of 2.53, as I noted earlier. Sometimes a pitcher’s success in small samples can be due to luck, but not with Megill. This year, his expected ERA is 2.04, which is the fourteenth-best in the league among pitchers who have allowed at least 25 balls in play. On his fastball, Megill has allowed an expected opponent batting average of .153, which is the best on the Twins. On the curveball, he has allowed a minuscule expected batting average of .196. 
Between having well above league-average stuff and producing very well in the opportunities he has been given, Trevor Megill should be given more opportunities in high leverage situations here soon, especially as the Twins start to play a more challenging schedule.
What other relievers should be given big innings down the stretch? How do you feel about Trevor Megill? Leave a comment or any other questions you may have below, and feel free to start a discussion.
Thank you for reading, and Go Twins!
 

The Twins are currently 4.5 games up on the Cleveland Guardians; the White Sox are stinky, and the Tigers and Royals remembered that they are, in fact, the Tigers and Royals. Every other team in the Twins' division is dreadfully below .500 and has little recourse for their sins. Given the AL Comedy Central context, what could the Twins possibly worry about?
A few things! Actually. Let’s talk about the bullpen, that terrible bullpen. Twins relievers moonlighted as an adequate group for a handful of games, perhaps fooling some into believing that Jhoan Duran, Joe Smith, and their Merry Group of Men could hold their own at least until the trade deadline. That came down in a crashing, painful fashion. Cody Stashak is injured, Smith is now mortal, Tyler Duffey forgot that he’s supposed to be good, Caleb Thielbar is walking a small village, and Emilio Pagán… let’s just leave that name undescribed. If not for Duran and his magical right arm, the bullpen would require an NC-17 rating every time Rocco Baldelli called for “support.” Stretching back to when Houston systematically crushed the Twins starting on May 10th, the unit has put up the 6th worst FIP in MLB (4.45).
There is little in the form of inspirational reinforcements as well. Yennier Cano has excellent stuff but wrestles with bouts of lost command; Trevor Megill also has great stuff, but, and you’ll be shocked to read this, he too struggles with command at times. Maybe Ian Hamilton or Austin Schulfer could provide a jolt, but it would be foolish to bet on that happening. One could snarkily mention Taylor Rogers, but the Brewers jumped all over him on Thursday, so that punchline is no longer as funny.
How about the starting rotation, now. Outside of the one time a week Joe Ryan descends from above to bless us with a great start (or at least when that used to happen before he got COVID), the rotation is more inconsistent than Florida in an election year. Sonny Gray is great but has now suffered multiple injuries; Chris Archer finally hit the five-inning threshold in a start the other day (it’s June), Dylan Bundy is Dylan Bundy-ing, and, honestly, who knows after that. Chris Paddack was a joy to watch until he tore his UCL again, and Josh Winder flashed potential… until he aggravated his right shoulder… again. The rotation is now Bailey Ober and whatever magic Devin Smeltzer has left in his stirrups. Chi Chi González is now starting. The case rests.
“But the team is severely injured,” you might say. The Twins these days are indeed the baseball equivalent of the Ship of Theseus, but there’s no promise that the injuries will let up, and what matters is what the team does on the field, not what the team could be doing on the field. There are no awards for potential. 
To combat an article full of negativity, Ryan and Carlos Correa will return from COVID soon, as will Gilberto Celestino. This very well could be just one of those streaks in a baseball season, the kind that scares everyone into claiming the sky is falling before laughing off the notion after a month of great play; the team did win 18 games in May.
Perhaps none of this matters—the Al Central is currently a handful of teams that look more like fronts for tax fraud than actual baseball franchises—but this team is not in great shape. The two-month slog until the trade deadline will be crucial; key pieces need to get healthy and stay healthy for this team to have hope against the better squads in the AL. The house of cards was wobbly to begin with, and they may be slipping with each day.
 

1. Reinforcements are on the way

A big reason why the Minnesota Twins have struggled over the last couple weeks have been because of the sheer number of players that they have been missing in these games. Just to list the name of players that have hit the injured list over the past two weeks illustrates how dire it has been: Carlos Correa (COVID-19), Joe Ryan (COVID-19), Gilberto Celestino (COVID-19), Josh Winder (Shoulder), Sonny Gray (Pectoral), Royce Lewis (Knee), Danny Coulombe (Hip). 
The good news for the Twins, though, is that many of these players figure to be back shortly. It’s been just about one week since Ryan, Celestino and Correa hit the COVID-19 list and they figure to be back in the fold in just a few short days. Additionally, Jorge Alcala has already begun his rehab assignment as he reaches the end of his time on the 60-day injured list, and all reports point to his arm looking strong.
The return timelines of Josh Winder, Sonny Gray and Royce Lewis are less clear, but all three of these vital players appear to have avoided major injuries and figure to be healthy in turn for the late summer home stretch of the season.
Finally, the Twins are close to getting Alex Kirilloff added back onto the squad as well. Kirilloff struggled mightily during his time with the Twins, but since getting sent back down to AAA, Kirilloff has found his groove to the tune of a .863 OPS. Getting Kirilloff back to his expected form would be a big time addition.
2. White Sox Look Terrible

For as bad as the Minnesota Twins have looked lately, the Chicago White Sox have looked even worse. The team that everyone expected to run away with the American League Central has not at all looked the part all season. After falling prey to a sweep from the Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday afternoon, the White Sox now find themselves at 23-26 with a negative-55 run differential, the second-worst run differential in the American League.
While true that the schedule is about to get tough for the Twins, the White Sox face an equally tough slate with their next six games coming against the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers.
It’s hard to envision the Guardians, Tigers, or Royals making any sort of run at the American League Central, and with the White Sox looking as bad as they have looked, there’s still plenty of reason to feel optimistic about the Twins’ chances of making the playoffs.
3. Third Wild Card Spot

If the White Sox do figure things out and start playing much better than they have over the first third of the season, the Twins still have a great shot at making the playoffs via the Wildcard. As a part of the new CBA agreement, there are now three Wildcard teams that make the American League playoffs. In an American League where nine teams currently have a record under .500, it shouldn’t take any more than 85 wins to make the playoffs. To put that in perspective, the Twins would just need to play .500 baseball over the balance of the season to lock down a playoff spot. Additionally, all Wildcard teams are now guaranteed an extended playoff series, rather than a one-game playoff.
There is certainly reason to be frustrated with how the Minnesota Twins have been playing lately. However, with the reinforcements on the way, along with the way the White Sox have been playing and the fact that three Wild Card teams from the American League will make the playoffs, the Minnesota Twins still find themselves in a good spot to reach the postseason, where anything can happen (even if you’re the Minnesota Twins).
Are you worried about the Minnesota Twins? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

Monday's game against the Tigers offered ominous signs of potential things to come. Joe Smith, who allowed zero runs in his first 16 appearances of the season, has now allowed four runs in his past four. He couldn't dance his way out of a leadoff triple in the seventh at Detroit, letting two runs in on three hits and taking the loss. 
The regression he's experiencing may be a harbinger for the relief corps as a whole.
According to Win Probability Added, which quantifies the percent change in a team's chances of winning from one event to the next, Minnesota's bullpen entered play Monday as the fourth-best in baseball, adding more than two victories to the ledger through clutch performances in tight situations. With the Twins possessing a 9-5 record in one-run games, that sounds about right.
However, according to Wins Above Replacement, which seeks to paint a more process-driven picture of value, Twins relievers have been the second-WORST in all of baseball – dead last in the American League. FanGraphs pegs this group as sub-replacement level on whole.
That is the case despite breakout star Jhoan Duran pitching incredibly well at the back end. In fact, his status as a crux point in this Twins bullpen might be the scariest thing of all. Without him around, the unit would look dramatically worse and less imposing. 
In order to avoid turning too often to guys like Tyler Duffey and Emilio Pagán, who are hard to trust, the Twins will need to lean hard on Duran. But we're talking about a guy who threw 16 total innings the past two years, and who dealt with a serious elbow strain for almost all of 2021. There's a huge risk in overusing him. From a big-picture perspective, they should probably err toward underusing him.
Reinforcements will be needed as we get into the heart of the summer. Yennier Canó unfortunately did not make a strong impression during his first turn with the big-league club. Danny Coulombe will be out for a while after aggravating his hip injury. Jorge Alcala's return is not imminent.
Right now, there's a lot of pressure on the likes of Juan Minaya, Jovani Moran, and Trevor Megill to establish themselves as viable options in leverage, which is not a great place for the Twins to be.
(This is where I must obligatorily point out that – as Chris Paddack embarks on the long road back from Tommy John surgery – Taylor Rogers has a 1.17 ERA for the Padres and leads the world in saves, although he did cough up a game to Pittsburgh the other night by allowing three runs.)
Minnesota's bullpen has outperformed expectations and underlying metrics like no other in the game. As the season progresses, that balancing act becomes trickier and trickier. So far Rocco Baldelli has mostly been putting relievers in a position to succeed and relievers have mostly been getting it done. 
How much longer will that sustain? Unless a few guys other than Duran can step up, I fear Monday's slip-up was only the beginning.
 

Baldelli had the makings of a slam-dunk hire in 2019, when he became the youngest recipient of Manager of the Year in history, leading the Twins to a historic 101-win season. He followed with another division title in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. 
One would think such an impressive start to his managerial career would earn the guy a bit of leeway in the eyes of fans. Turns out, not so much. 
While experiencing his first rocky year at the helm, Rocco was routinely derided by a large portion of the fanbase and columnist hive in 2021's last-place debacle. Never mind he was supplied by the front office with Alex Colomé as his closer and the Happ-maker combo as his rotation reinforcements. Never mind dealing with a rotten hand injury-wise. 
Baldelli took major heat nonetheless. It's the name of the game.
As this 2022 season got off to similarly ugly start, with a 4-8 record two weeks in, fans on Twitter were calling for Rocco's head and a certain desperate-for-attention local media outlet was hilariously attempting to manufacture a manager controversy. 
Since that 4-8 start, Baldelli's Twins are 17-7. They're winning tight games. They're playing far cleaner, crisper ball than opponents. And they're bouncing back from adversity.
Tactically, Baldelli has been pressing the right buttons and his decision have paid off time and time again. Here are three examples from Monday's 3-1 victory:
1: Chris Archer pulled after four innings.
It wasn't an obvious call by any means. Archer had allowed only one run on two hits over four innings. He was at just 62 pitches when Baldelli made the decision to pull him. The Twins were in the midst of a stretch with nine games in nine days. They could've tried to squeeze another inning or two.
The skipper did not want to see Archer face Oakland's lineup for a third time and that was absolutely the right call. Yennier Canó came in and mowed down the next two frames, giving hitters a very different look from the starter.
Griffin Jax followed with two scoreless frames, and then Tyler Duffey closed things out in a clean ninth. Another shutout showing from the relief corps.
Minnesota's bullpen, despite losing one of the best relievers in baseball on the eve of Opening Day, has been phenomenal. Elite by any measure. Elite! Who would've expected this based on the personnel we saw forming this unit?
Twins relief pitchers – from Canó to Jax to Joe Smith to Jhoan Duran to Emilio Pagán and beyond – are getting it done. Rocco is putting them in spots to succeed, as has been his trademark. His bullpen ranked third in the majors in WAR in 2019, and second in 2020.
Baldelli quietly has an argument as the best bullpen manager in baseball.
2: Small ball pays off in the 5th inning.
I'm not a big fan of small-ball tactics generally, and based on his tendencies I think it's safe to say Baldelli feels the same. (I mean, that 2019 team was basically a giant middle-finger to small ball as a concept.)
But both of us could agree that it made sense to take such an approach in the fifth inning of a 1-1 game after Royce Lewis drew a leadoff walk. Nick Gordon, the #9 hitter who entered with a paltry .596 OPS, stepped in and got the bunt call. He executed, bringing up the team's best hitter with one out and a man in scoring position.
Byron Buxton? Oh, you know he executed. 
Even if it hadn't worked out, bunting with Gordon there is a move that simply made sense. Baldelli has shown he'll go that route when it's warranted. You wonder if the dead-ball trend might compel this calculating manager to keep adjusting in that direction.
3: Buxton was on the field.
There's been a whole bunch of grumbling lately about the team's "kid-gloves treatment" of Buxton. (Much of it, you'll be shocked to learn, coming from the aforementioned desperate-for-attention outlet.) Apparently it is now controversial to take a cautious approach in a 162-game season with your vitally important superstar who also happens to be banged up, and maybe the most injury-prone player in the league. 
Yes, Baldelli and the Twins have opened up about their intentions to manage Buxton's workload this year in hopes of keeping him off the injured list. Their plan has been successful so far, in every way. Buxton has avoided the IL – despite a few scares that continue to affect him – and the Twins are six games above .500, leading the division, even with him playing only two-thirds of the time.
Winning the division and having Buxton healthy for the playoffs should be this team's utmost aspiration. It's a combination they haven't yet been able to achieve yet. Right now, Baldelli has the Twins on track to do both. And people are still complaining. SMH.
Some of us appreciate you, Rocco, and see the things you're doing to help this team exceed expectations. Many won't. But that's the name of the game.

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Josh Winder, 3.1 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 3BB, 2 K (77 pitches, 45 strikes, 58%)
Home Runs: none
Bottom Three WPA: Josh Winder (-.209), Byron Buxton (-.105), Jose Miranda (-.097), 
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

After a rocky finish to last night's weather-delayed game, the Twins finished up a 'less than pretty' series against the Astros with a 5-0 shutout loss on Thursday afternoon. Despite garnering seven hits (to Houston's eight), the Twins were unable to convert any rallies and left 16 runners on base throughout the game. 
First Foe for Winder
After two incredible starts to kick off his MLB campaign Josh Winder had his first sub-par start on Tuesday afternoon. The highly-touted prospect lasted just 3 1/3 innings, giving up six hits while walking three batters. Twins trainer Abe Masa accompanied skipper Rocco Baldelli to the mound to check on Winder towards the end of his outing. Winder continued to pitch and appeared fine. Hopefully, the young talent is healthy and will rebound for another great start next week!
Bullpen
After a rough outing in the first game of the day, the Twins' bullpen was adequate through 5 2/3 innings. Caleb Thielbar followed Josh Winder in relief and was scoreless through 1 2/3 innings. Tyler Duffey followed suit with two innings of scoreless ball. The highlight of the bullpen experience came from Cole Sands in the top of the eighth inning. Called up to the 40-man roster after last night's delay, Sands struck out the side, providing the only 1-2-3 inning on the day for the Twins' pitching staff. Sands wasn't as lucky in the ninth, giving up a homer to Yordan Alvarez. 
Arraez and Rocco Return
Despite the gloom of the box score, Luiz Arraez and Rocco Baldelli returned from the COVID protocol on Thursday. Baldelli managed both games today and Arraez made his debut in the second game of the pseudo-double-header, going 2-for-3 with a double and a walk. 
Nick Gordon is a Renaissance Man
The Twins may have lost, but Nick Gordon won over the hearts of Twins fans between the two games on Thursday. After pitching a scoreless ninth inning of a blowout loss, Gordon made one of the most spectacular catches across the league in the second inning of the second game. 
Gordon had an impressive day at the plate as well, going 2-for-3 with a pair of singles in the fifth and seventh innings. The former first-round pick has been a joy to watch for the Twins this season both in the field and at the plate. The Avon Park, Florida native has hit .294 in his last seven games, and Thursday afternoon's game was his first multi-hit game since April 21 against Kansas City.  
Bullpen Usage Chart

What’s Next?
After a disappointing sweep, the Twins will look to regain momentum tomorrow night with a home series against the Cleveland Guardians. RHP Sonny Gray (0-1, 3.48 ERA) will face off against Aaron Civale (1-2, 9.45 ERA) in a battle of two of the AL Central's top teams. First pitch at Target Field is scheduled for 7:10 pm CST. 
 

Shortly after the lockout ended, the Twins engaged in a frenzied activity to reshape their roster and prepare for the 2022 season. One of the first moves they made, was trading fan favorite Mitch Garver to the Texas Rangers for Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who eventually was flipped to the Yankees to shed Josh Donaldson’s contract. Trading an aging catcher, with a lengthy injury history, made a lot of sense, even if Twins fans didn’t like the move. How the trade would be reflected upon, depended largely on the development of Ryan Jeffers and what he could offer offensively in 2022. Early in the 2022 season, the returns are promising.
Jeffers’ development since being taken in the second round of the 2018 draft out of UNC Wilmington has been remarkable. At the time, the pick was immediately labeled a reach from Minnesota. The Twins, however, saw a solid power bat and a cerebral player they felt they could develop defensively, despite not having had a college catching coach. Jeffers was essentially self-taught defensively. Let’s dig into his offensive and defensive production in 2022 to see what’s under the hood.
Offense

When Jeffers was first called up in 2020, hitting .273/.355/.436 and managed a 120 wRC+ in a small, 26-game sample. 2021 was, by comparison, a disaster. Jeffers lost his strike zone control, walking less and striking out more, and struggled to get bat to ball, managing 0.6 fWAR in 86 games. In 18 games in 2022, Jeffers has already matched his season-long fWAR from 2021, hitting .228/.302/.456 to go along with a 125 wRC+.
Looking at Jeffers’ Statcast profile tells its own interesting and encouraging tale. Jeffers ranks in the 96th percentile for Barrel % and 89th percentile for xSLG, those are elite numbers. You may not like the profile of hitter, but Jeffers is settling in on being a slugger that will strike out a lot but make a ton of hard, effective contact. That’s valuable in and of itself, for a catcher, even more so.

There are a number of factors that hurt the perception of Jeffers’ offensive profile and production. Firstly, Mitch Garver’s 2019 season. It was a unicorn season, both for Garver and in the history of the position. Combine it with Garver’s approach at the plate, which combined elite power and strike-zone control, and it’s easy to wave away Jeffers’ low OBP as uninteresting and lacking value. Let’s put his numbers early in 2022 in some positional context. 
Jeffers ranks fifth in fWAR among all MLB catchers, seventh in SLG, seventh in wRC+, and ninth in wOBA. He just doesn't get on base a lot, and that’s OK. If Jeffers maintains his offensive production and a wRC+ of slightly above 100, he’s going to have an incredibly valuable 2022 season for the Twins.
Defense

Let’s start with the obvious, Ryan Jeffers is not good at throwing out runners. He ranks fifth last in this category among catchers in 2022. Also, who cares? Jeffers has had four bases stolen on his watch in 2022, and has thrown out one runner, for a CS% of 20%. Yadier Molina is at 29%. Base stealing has become such an irrelevant part of the game that this area of weakness is inconsequential. 
Measuring defense is difficult, for catchers, it’s almost impossible. There are no effective metrics to help understand the effectiveness with which a catcher ‘calls’ a game. Here’s what we do know about Jeffers. Per Statcast, he’s in the 84th percentile for framing among MLB catchers. Per Baseball Prospectus, he’s seventh-best in baseball. Rdrs/yr measures the number of runs above or below average a fielder would save over 1,200 innings (approximately 135 games). Jeffers sits at 36, that’s good for second-best among catchers in baseball. This is reflected in the eye test for Jeffers. How many run-saving blocks has he already made this year? While the defensive numbers can’t paint the full picture, the outline is clear. Jeffers is a defensive standout.
All of this, of course, is a relatively meaningless sample of around 20 games. There’s plenty of season left to go right or go wrong. The early indicators point to Ryan Jeffers as an extremely valuable long-term commodity for the Minnesota Twins.
 

Miguel Sanó has had an April to forget in 2022 for the Minnesota Twins. Through 15 games, Sanó has just five hits and an abysmal OPS of .380. Sanó has just one extra-base hit and has statistically been the least valuable player in baseball in this early season with an fWAR of -.07.
Miguel Sanó having yet another poor start has left Minnesota Twins fans extremely frustrated with the first baseman and questioning whether it is time to cut bait. Sanó is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, and with Alex Kirilloff nearing his way back from injury and Jose Miranda on the doorstep of the Majors, it might make sense to move on from him in favor of youth.
I certainly have voiced my own frustrations with Miguel Sanó.
Miguel Sanó’s advanced numbers, though, paint a different picture and portend that Sanó’s early struggles are largely fluky and that better days are ahead. Let’s dig deeper into the numbers.
First, let’s look at his contact numbers. Through the first handful of weeks, Miguel Sanó ranks 11th in all of baseball with an average exit velocity of 93.2 MPH, right on par with his career average exit velocity of 93.1 MPH. Further, Sanó’s hard-hit percentage is at 50%, tied for 24th in baseball. Finally, his barrel numbers are at his typically high rate, with a barrel percentage of 15.6%, just a tick below his career average. 
So, if his contact numbers are at their typically high level, then it must be his poor plate discipline that explains his terrible numbers, right? Wrong. Sanó is actually showing better discipline at the plate in 2022 than he ever has in his career. Thus far in 2022, Sanó owns a career-low K% of 29.3 with a BB% of 13.8, the second-highest mark of his career. Additionally, Sanó has a career-low chase rate and whiff rate of just 16.9% and 33.3%, respectively.
Just look at Sanó’s statcast percentile numbers. Does this look like someone who should be hitting .083 and worthy of being cut?

If Sanó’s contact rates are at his typically-elite levels, and his plate discipline numbers are at career-best levels, why is Miguel Sanó having such a terrible start to the season? 
Simply put, it’s been bad luck for the Dominican. 
A simple, yet admittedly not perfect, way to gauge luck in baseball is by looking at batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Over a large enough sample size, the BABIP for most MLB players will settle at around .300. Heading into the 2022 season, Miguel Sanó had a career BABIP of .329. This season, though, Miguel Sanó is sitting at a BABIP of .097, the second-lowest mark in baseball behind Kansas City’s Carlos Santana.
Another way to look at bad luck is to compare a player’s actual numbers to his expected numbers and look at the difference. The best numbers to look for this is weighted on-base average (wOBA) versus expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). wOBA is a catch-all offensive statistic that best encapsulates offensive performance. xwOBA then looks at a player's process statistics such as exit velocity to determine what a player’s numbers should be, as we all know that luck is a big part of the game of baseball. Miguel Sanó currently has a wOBA of .192, compared to a xwOBA of .334. The -0.142 difference between those two numbers is the sixth-largest discrepancy in all of baseball, showing that Sanó has been one of the most snake-bitten players in 2022.
On Tuesday night, Miguel Sanó teased what could be the start of some converted luck as he smoked a 108 MPH single over right fielder, Robbie Grossman's, head which (in the wildest way possible) wound up being a walk-off hit for the Twins.
 
It has been extremely frustrating to watch Miguel Sanó bat in 2022, but all of the advanced numbers show that better days are ahead for the right-hander. It can be tempting to want to give up on Sanó and want to move onto other options, but the upside that Sanó brings is sky-high. Let’s cut Sanó some slack as a big summer is coming for the powerful first baseman.

There’s no way that it happened again. Most fans had to be thinking after watching Buxton slide into second base at Fenway Park. He slapped the ground in frustration and walked off the field under his own power, but it would mean more missed time for Buxton with an offense that has struggled to start 2022. So, what can the Twins do with their star center fielder? 
Injuries have been part of Byron Buxton’s story throughout his professional career. Minnesota has already tried various techniques to keep Buxton healthy, including altering his jumping technique at the wall and positioning him deeper in the outfield. Those strategies may have helped him avoid some injuries, but every game he misses is value he isn’t providing to the Twins. Shifting Buxton to a more regular designated hitter role is a unique idea that deserves some exploration. 

Alex Fast is a VP at Pitcher List and he creates content for ESPN and MLB Network. He has over 26.1 K follows on Twitter, so he is certainly a voice that many listen to in the baseball world. However, many Twins fans may have been a little stunned by his suggestion over the weekend.
Buxton doesn’t have any structural damage to his knee, and the team hopes he can avoid an IL trip. One way to get him back into the line-up is to have him serve as DH. Minnesota utilized this strategy in recent years with Josh Donaldson and his aging legs. Nick Gordon is undoubtedly a defensive downgrade, but Buxton in the line-up is more valuable than having him on the bench. 

On the surface, this might seem like a logical solution, but many of Buxton’s recent injuries have occurred while on offense. His knee injury resulted from him stretching a single into a double. Last season, he broke his hand on a hit by pitch and suffered through some hamstring issues. While his hamstrings may benefit from less time in the outfield, these other injuries are still likely to occur when he serves in a DH role. 

Buxton has never played a game at the DH position in his career. It may seem easy to slide a player into that spot, but it can be a difficult transition for some hitters. Not playing on the defensive side can take focus off the game and make it harder for a hitter to lock in when it is time to step into the batter’s box. Buxton may be able to handle the transition, but he’s passionate about his defensive ability and the value he provides the team in center field. 

While Buxton’s bat is elite, he provides so much value on the defensive side of the ball. This season, even in limited action, he ranks in the 95th percentile for Outs Above Average (OAA). Since 2016, he has compiled 60 OAA even with his time missed due to injury. He is arguably baseball’s best defensive center fielder. Gordon has showcased some defensive versatility during his big-league career, but he is a significant downgrade in centerfield, especially since he just started playing the position in 2021. 

Playing centerfield is one of baseball’s most taxing defensive positions, so allowing Buxton a respite from the outfield may get him back into the line-up. However, this seems like a short-term solution while the Twins are looking for a long-term answer for Buxton’s injury woes. When on the field, Buxton plays with an all-out effort that separates him from many other big-league players. Unfortunately, this has resulted in a myriad of injuries, and it might be time for the team to take a new approach. 

Do you think shifting Buxton to a more regular DH role would keep him in the line-up? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
 

Stop losing sleep over pitching

Out of the 16 pitchers on the roster, only three appeared on last season’s Opening Day roster (Caleb Thielbar, Tyler Duffey, Jorge Alcala). This reformation came quietly, with the Twins choosing to promote from within and to sign smaller names in larger quantities. The biggest changes came from trades, which have already reaped some benefits (@ Twins legend, Gio Urshela). This is the most pitchers that Minnesota has carried on their roster in the past five years, with the Twins opting to add exclusively pitching to their expanded roster. The Twins learned the hard way last season that quantity can override quality. This new approach prevents a single point of failure, such as when the Twins were forced to consistently use Alex Colomé after the mass exodus in the bullpen. 
It doesn’t hurt that the Twins supplemented quantity without compromising quality. Jhoan Duran’s performance made fans forget about Brusdar Graterol and Taylor Rogers. Jorge Alcala is coming into his own, putting away the Mariners in 13 pitches. Going into tomorrow, the Twins have eight completely fresh bullpen arms, which is equal to the total number of pitchers in the bullpen last season. The pitching may not be the best in the AL Central, but the Twins have taken the necessary steps to prevent a nuclear meltdown. 
Alex Kirilloff will lead the team in strikeouts 

This is not necessarily a bad thing, with Shohei Ohtani, Randy Arozarena, and Salvador Perez appearing collectively in the top 10 strikeout leaderboard last season. The Twins’ strikeout leader in Miguel Sanó struck out a career-high 185 times but also walked a career-high 59 times last season. He continues to trend in this direction. Gary Sánchez lived a very similar narrative in New York. However, the young rookie has the most to prove in this group. He was on a hot streak before a season-ending injury last year, with some doubting his impact on the team post-injury. Alex Kirilloff wants to be in the elite class of the Buxtons and Correas of the world, and he has the talent to back it up. There is no doubt that Kirilloff will swing for the fences if given the opportunity.
Joe Ryan is the real deal 

The bats were quiet, but Joe Ryan had a good outing in his first Opening Day start and sixth start overall against a much improved, playoff-hungry Seattle Mariners team. Even though his one mistake to Mitch Haniger cost the game, he worked himself out of every other jam. 
 
Outside of pitch count, Ryan’s stats today don’t fall too far behind Robbie Ray’s, with Ray collecting one more strikeout. However, Ryan’s composure falls in the footsteps of the Cy Young winner. One of Ray’s biggest assets is his ability to regain control after a mistake on the mound. On paper, Ryan had the worst start of his career, but his ability to minimize damage and regain control are all signs of a future ace like Ray. Today, Ryan showed maturity in his experience beyond his years.
The Front Office (probably) knew what they were doing

Although it would’ve been nice to have Mitch Garver or Josh Donaldson’s bat in the lineup today, things have shaken out decently thus far. Gio Urshela was the hero of the game, and Carlos Correa was in mid-season form. Promoting Jhoan Duran has given fans someone exciting to root for. As mentioned above, the brand new pitching staff looks to be an improvement from last season. Even though the season is long and many things can still go wrong, the Front Office had done a passable job of addressing some of the biggest concerns from last year. As Penny Lane once said, “it’s all happening.”
…and Jose Berríos getting pulled in the first inning didn’t hurt this argument. Fan-favorite Frankie Montas didn’t fare too well either…

The availability heuristic is humanities’ tendency to use information that comes to mind quickly when making decisions, inferences, or predictions. Also known as recency bias, the concept is pervasive in sports. Try, for example, convincing yourself that the Vikings could do anything except sign a defensive tackle the minute free agency opens, it’s almost impossible.
Baseball is no different than other sports in this regard. Consider the Twins' win-loss record over the last decade and it's easy to see why fans take a ‘what have you done for me lately’ approach to the team.
This applies in numerous ways to Minnesota. It’s easy to assume that the White Sox will run away with a poor AL Central in 2022 after the Twins collapse in 2021, and they might. Take a peek under the hood, however, and the Twins are poised to compete. Let’s dig in.
Baseball Prospectus dropped its initial PECOTA standings on Tuesday. If you’re not familiar, PECOTA is Baseball Prospectus’ projection system, that is used to simulate end-of-season records for all 30 teams. As of March 15th, PECOTA has the Twins finishing second in the Central at 84-78, not so terribly far behind the 91-71 White Sox.
First of all, wow. I am deep in the weeds on Twins Twitter. It’s been understandably sour this offseason. Let’s ground ourselves in the fact that this team, as currently constructed, is a .500 team. Even though a large part of this stems from the Twins getting to play a lot of games against pretty bad teams, it still feels pretty hard to accept, given the Twins have just traded their best two right-handed hitters in Josh Donaldson and Mitch Garver. Garver was a fan favorite and will be sorely missed. Donaldson was divisive and is probably undergoing mediation with Gerritt Cole in the parking lot of the Yankees spring training complex in Tampa. Jokes aside, we know the Twins still have plenty of work to do this offseason. I wrote this winter about the Twins' pursuit of a 40-WAR team in 2022, so let’s look at some possible remaining paths and what outcomes they might result in.
The Twins currently sit in 16th with a cumulative fWAR of 36.3 (although this is changing by minute).
Let’s examine some possible next steps for the Twins and how they might us towards that magical 40 fWAR mark. For the purposes of these pathways, I’m ignoring the bullpen for a couple of reasons; relief pitching doesn’t lend itself well to fWAR, and I ain’t got time for that. So, here goes.
Pathway 1: Acquire an Elite Shortstop and an Elite Starting Pitcher

Twins sign SS Trevor Story: 4.5 fWAR
Twins trade for SP Frankie Montas: 3.2 fWAR
This would net the Twins around 7 additional fWAR and bring them to around a 43 fWAR projection. That’s well within playoff range, but also still a distance from the White Sox mark of 47 fWAR. This is a team ready to challenge for the division and certainly compete for a wild card spot.
Pathway 2: Acquire an Elite Starting Pitcher and Mediocre Shortstop

Twins trade for SP Frankie Montas: 3.2 fWAR
Twins trade for SS Elvis Andrus: 0.9 fWAR
In this package trade, the Twins acquire Montas and Andrus together, Andrus as a salary dump for Oakland. This would bring the Twins to a 40.5 fWAR and they likely compete for a wild card spot.
Pathway 3: Acquire a Mediocre Starting Pitcher and Elite Shortstop

The Twins sign SP Michael Pineda: 1.8 fWAR
The Twins sign SS Trevor Story: 4.5 fWAR
This is where we see the value of potentially adding Story for the Twins. This path would bring the Twins to a projection of 42.6 fWAR before any additional outfield, right-handed bat, and bullpen enhancements. In short, Trevor Story is by far the highest leverage player the Twins have a realistic chance of adding.
Pathway 4: Mediocre Everything

The Twins sign SP Michael Pineda: 1.8 fWAR
The Twins trade for SS Elvis Andrus: 0.9 fWAR
I’m not suggesting the Twins would or should do this, I’m merely using it as an example as Andrus offers very little for 2022. In the ‘bare minimum’ pathway, the Twins get to 39.0 fWAR. After the tumult of trading Garver, flipping Kiner-Falefa to the Yankees, and trading away Donaldson, combined with the acquisition of Gray, this would be a brutal disappointment. Again, it’s just an example to underscore the divergence of the paths ahead for the Twins.
The Twins are in a much better spot for 2022 than we are conditioned to think. How much they are willing to risk moving forwards will determine if this years’ team is likely to be average, or has a chance to be great.
 

Tyler Clippard 
Twins’ Tenure: 2020

Tyler Clippard celebrated his fifteenth season in the majors with the Arizona Diamondbacks last year, where he quietly had one of his best seasons yet. In the most competitive division in baseball, Clippard held a 3.20 ERA, 1.303 WHIP, and 1.9 K/W ratio. At age 37, Clippard is one of the oldest relievers on the market and unlikely to get a long-term contract with any team. This makes him a cost-efficient and effective addition to the team as an alternative to Taylor Rogers or Caleb Thielbar in short relief scenarios.
Blake Parker
Twins’ Tenure: half of 2019

Blake Parker was designated for assignment during the height of the Bomba Squad era and was quickly picked up by the Philadelphia Phillies. Last season, we briefly saw him in Cleveland’s bullpen, where he was, dare we say, pretty good! It’s as close to a 180 as we’ve seen since his last days in Minnesota. His 3.09 ERA, 142 ERA+, and 2.64 SO/W in 43 innings last season are fairly comparable to Tyler Duffey’s statistics. Similar to Clippard, his age is a disadvantage on paper, but his price tag is unlikely to break the bank. 
Kohl Stewart
Twins’ Tenure: 2018 - 2019

The Twins selected Kohl Stewart fourth overall in the 2013 MLB Draft, over the likes of Tim Anderson, Aaron Judge, and Twins’ legend Isiah Kiner-Falefa. He demolished the Minor Leagues until he was called up to the Majors in 2018, where he fizzled out almost immediately. Things have been challenging for Stewart since his release in 2019. He opted out of the 2020 season due to having Type 1 Diabetes, pitched for two months last year with the Cubs until he was placed on the 60-day IL, and was offered only a minor league assignment with the Cubs.  
With that said, Kohl Stewart is only 26 years old, making him over a decade younger than the others on this list. With the addition of a Cutter last season, Stewart has a six-pitch repertoire with varying degrees of success. He currently relies heavily on his Sinker, which is by far his least effective pitch. If the Twins can focus Stewart on perfecting his virtually unhittable Slider and newly-added Cutter, Stewart can become a Sergio Romo-esque reliever with a Thielbar-esque story. Due to his recent misfortunes, Stewart is likely also the cheapest addition on this list, Signing Stewart to another Minor League assignment is low-cost with a high upside. 

Sergio Romo
Twins’ Tenure: 2019 - 2020 

Speaking of Sergio Romo, this fan-favorite has spent time with almost every team in the league with no signs of stopping. Last season, opponents had a paltry .219 batting average against his infamous Slider. Romo also pitched 61 2/3 innings last year, one inning more than his All-Star season in 2013. Romo is a workhorse who seems to defy time and gravity. His return to Minnesota will be a welcome relief (pun intended) for fans who have lost so many other favorites this past week.  
Who else would you like to see the Twins reunite with? Leave a comment below!
 

When the Minnesota Twins acquired Sanchez in exchange for Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, much was immediately made about the former top prospects’ struggles. He’s certainly been bad behind the dish, and he hasn’t been much good in the box of late either. However, not long ago, there was a time that he was a force to be reckoned with. Finding that again will be the key for the Twins.
Not unlike Sanchez, Sonny Gray was also recently acquired by the Twins. Also, similar to Sanchez, a change of scenery was a great prescription for his career as well. New York initially dealt for Gray because he owned a 3.45 ERA across his five years in the Majors. With Oakland, Gray had established himself as a frontline starter while picking up an All-Star nod and nearly winning a Cy Young.
Then he got to New York.
 
The first 11 starts resulted in a workable 3.72 ERA, but the walks hit a career-worst rate, and so did the home runs. The Yankees went just 4-7 in his 11 starts, and it was clear the Cracker Jack box that is Yankee Stadium was doing Gray no favors. The following season, 2018, things got even worse. Gray posted a 4.90 ERA, and there was plenty of media pressure. It was more than clear things weren’t working out.
 
Fast forward to 2019 after signing with the Cincinnati Reds, Gray was once again back to his dominant self. A 2.87 ERA was nearly a career-best, and his 10.5 K/9 represented the first time he’d averaged double-digits during his career. Despite Great American Ballpark being a hitter’s paradise, Gray dropped the HR/9 back below 1.0 to 0.9 before suppressing it further to 0.6 in 2020. Gray’s 2021 wasn’t as great. He was above the 4.00 ERA mark again and did give up too many homers, but it’s still a smashing success to see the 3.49 ERA across 68 starts with Cincinnati.
 
I’d imagine a few tweaks were made along the way by a new staff, but it’s hard not to note that a guy who was once good with Oakland was good again when escaping New York.
 
Sanchez has experienced a similar career path. After being a highly-touted prospect, he came out to the tune of a .923 OPS and 53 homers across his first 175 games. He struggled in 2018 but then rebounded with a. .841 OPS in 2019. Since 2020 however, Sanchez has played in 166 games for the Yankees and posted just a .698 OPS. He was benched regularly for Kyle Higashioka, and the media had a field day with his defensive woes. While no longer a kid at 29-years-old, I can’t imagine that didn’t weigh on him.
 
Coming to Minnesota, Sanchez gets to settle in with a group he knows well. Latin players are prevalent all over the Twins roster, and there are long-established friendships with Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco. Rocco Baldelli and his staff will look to make inroads with their new backstop, but it could be the relationships Sanchez has established from earlier in life that help acclimate him most quickly to his new home.
 
I don’t know that we’ll ever see Sanchez receive MVP votes again or capture a Silver Slugger, but I think there’s a better case than not to bank on him performing better than he did the last few years in New York. What are your thoughts? Does a change of scenery help a person? Is the New York media that damaging?
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Catcher is a difficult position both physically and mentally. Manning the backstop is what cost one of the all-time great Twins in Joe Mauer so dearly in his prime. Even if Mauer had avoided the concussion that resulted in his move to first base, it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where he would have prematurely declined due to the demands of his position. The Twins may want to try to avoid a similar scenario when it comes to Mitch Garver.
Garver is far from the typical catcher in today’s baseball environment. Regulars at the position are typically expected to provide strong defense and adequately call a game for a pitching staff. If they can hold their own offensively that’s just a bonus.
Garver on the other hand is a bat-first catcher. He’s far from terrible defensively and has made great strides in things like framing where he ranked in the 93rd percentile in 2021. He may not win any gold gloves but he doesn’t have to given his ability in the batter’s box. Not only has he been an above-average hitter in three of the last four seasons, but he’s also been flat-out incredible in two of them.
Garver uses a mastery of the strike zone to lay off borderline pitches and force pitchers into making mistakes. His 2019 was argued as the best offensive season by a catcher since Mike Piazza when he was 55% above league average offensively and nearly put up 4 fWAR in under 400 plate appearances. It’s possible his disastrous 2020 where he posted a .167/.247/.264 line was injury-related, as in 2021 he returned to form hitting .256/.358/.517, good for 37% above the league average hitter.
It’s become clear that Garver shouldn’t be valued just for his offensive skills as a catcher, but for his offensive skills in general. With other candidates for the position debuting such as Ryan Jeffers and Ben Rortvedt, perhaps it’s time to better set Garver up for success moving forward.
Garver has played first base to some extent in every season of his career, although his career-high in innings at the position is 24 in 2017. Still, it may benefit the Twins to make a more concerted effort to get Garver time at a less physically demanding position. Not only is his concussion history worrisome, but it’s fair to wonder at 31 how soon the wear and tear throughout the season could begin to impact his ability to perform at the plate.
Besides injury risk, moving Garver even part-time off of catcher could make him available in the lineup more often while allowing Rortvedt and Jeffers to get more exposure. Jeffers in particular was held down in 2021 by getting the bulk of at-bats against right-handers in order to allow Garver to crush lefties whenever possible. It was a tough ask of a rookie and Jeffers understandably struggled at the plate seeing almost exclusively same-handed pitching.
Alex Kirilloff will be back in 2022 hopefully as the everyday first baseman with Miguel Sano rotating in. Still, Kirilloff will likely see some outfield innings and Sano and Garver can share first base and DH duties. In the last two seasons, Sano has inexplicably been well below league average against left-handed pitching, an area you can always expect Garver to excel in. If those trends continue, Garver could just overtake Sano’s at-bats altogether.
Much like the eternal question “How will we find enough at-bats for Player X?” The question of how to fit Garver into DH or first base on occasion would work itself out if the Twins choose to go that route. The question is whether they decide it’s time to do so. I’d argue that it can only help.
Garver’s bat will be all the more important without Nelson
Cruz in 2022 and the skills that make him such a force on offense should be able to age gracefully if he can avoid injury. Is it time to start easing him off of his natural position to try to keep him effective at the plate longer?
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What do they have so far?
The Twins ended the 2021 season with a depleted starting rotation, especially after the José Berríos trade and the Kenta Maeda season-ending injury. One can argue that it was depleted since the beginning of the season, with J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker being part of it. But from such a dark year on the mound, two seemingly good arms emerged from the minors.
Bailey Ober had his ups and downs but, overall, he had a very solid rookie campaign. His most impressive stretch of the season might have been the ten starts in July and August, in which he posted a 3.06 ERA, a 3.87 FIP, with 51 strikeouts and only 11 walks. With less than a hundred innings pitched on the major league level so far, you might argue that he isn’t a very reliable option just yet, but his first impression was not bad at all.
Joe Ryan joined the organization in mid-July as part of the Nelson Cruz trade. After a couple of solid starts for St. Paul in August, he got called up in September, making his big league debut, and he probably couldn’t have asked for a better one. In his second start, he carried a perfect game into the seventh inning, on his way to a seven-inning shutout on only 85 pitches.
Over his first four starts, Ryan maintained a very impressive 2.45 ERA and 2.49 FIP, keeping opposing batters to a .133 batting average. He struck out batters 25 times while walking them only three times. In his final start of the season, he gave up six earned runs against Detroit, spoiling his final numbers, but not the optimism around him going forward.
To quote the great Do-Hyoung Park, from MLB.com, if all had gone according to plan for the Twins this season, they probably wouldn’t have discovered these two exciting, young arms.
The third pitcher set to start the season on the Twins rotation is Dylan Bundy, whom Minnesota signed shortly before the league went into lockout. His career numbers aren’t impressive, and in 2021, he was moved to the Angels bullpen after struggling for the first half of the season. He did get back to the rotation in early August and closed out the season with a 3.31 ERA in the final four starts.
In the shortened season of 2020, his first year with the Angels, Bundy had his best season in the majors, finishing ninth in the AL Cy Young Award voting after posting 3.29 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 138 ERA+, with 9.9 strikeouts per nine and only 2.3 walks per nine. Did Wes Johnson see anything in Bundy that can be tweaked into a 2020 version of him?
How can they realistically fill the remaining gaps?
Suppose you consider the aforementioned trio good enough to fill the bottom part of the rotation. In that case, the Twins can very well build a competitive group of starters by making only two additions. Here’s how I would go about filling the two remaining rotation spots.

My favorite trade target is Frankie Montas. The A’s are believed to be on the verge of resetting, thus making their veteran starters available for trades. The Dominican righty is coming off a career year, having started 32 games for Oakland and accumulated 3.7 bWAR, both career-best marks for him. Over 187 innings of work in 2021, he was able to maintain a 3.37 ERA and 3.37 FIP, striking out 10.0 batters per nine and walking 2.7 per nine.
Such numbers earned him a sixth-place finish in the AL Cy Young Award last season, and he is under team control for two more seasons. He produced at least twice as much bWAR as any Twins pitcher in 2021. In a rebound year for Minnesota, I can see him being the difference-maker for a team that wants to avoid a rebuilding process. Twins Daily’s Nash Walker wrote an in-depth article discussing Montas as a trade target, but not only him. He also wrote about Chris Bassitt and Luis Castillo.

Since 2022 is likely not a year the Twins will be competing for a World Series, they should be looking for a proven veteran that can eat up innings and provide them with stability instead of an impact starter. In this scenario, two names come to mind, both of which are former Twins.
Jake Odorizzi’s time with Minnesota didn’t end up well. In the COVID-shortened 2020 season, he struggled with injuries and missed the first portion of the season. He made only four starts that year and had an awful 6.59 ERA. He signed with the Astros for the 2021 season, and his beginning with the Houston organization was also rough, but he would eventually pick up. After struggling in his first six starts, he posted a 3.74 ERA in the final 18 starts of the season.
Those numbers could indicate that he might be back on track and ready to be a reliable contributor once again. Trading for him makes sense, as you can potentially bring back a former All-Star who is still only 31 and is very likely to provide you with 150 innings, if healthy.
Michael Pineda is another option I like, but many Twins fans are quick to dismiss. His time with Minnesota was stained by so much time he missed due to injuries and the suspension, but that doesn’t change the fact that he delivered some very solid innings. In 21 starts in 2021, he pitched the second-most innings for the year (106 1/3 innings) and posted a very decent 3.72 ERA.
Odorizzi and Pineda aren’t aces you can rely on for years to come, but either of them (or both) could help the Twins not to suck in 2022. The most important aspect of this season is to take pressure off the development of top pitching prospects who have already reached the major league level, like Ober and Ryan. If prospects like Josh Winder and Jordan Balazovic make the leap to the majors this year, they could also benefit from that.
Plus, a rotation like this could be considered much better than the one they had last year, so they could have a much better outcome than the one they had in 2021.

What do you think? How would you fill those two rotation gaps differently? Share your thoughts in the comment section!
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When the offseason resumes, Minnesota's front office will be feeling pressure to address its extensive needs on the pitching staff. But as things stand, they won't be able to dedicate their full attention to this focus.
Because as things stand, the Twins don't have a starting shortstop. Nothing even resembling a feasible option or fallback plan. That is, unless they're willing to change their position on Jorge Polanco's ... position.
A ready-made starter at shortstop
Polanco was the starting shortstop on the American League All-Star team in 2019. Of his 596 games started in the majors, 470 have come at short. He played the position almost exclusively until last year, when he shifted across the diamond to second base.
No one would deny this was a successful pivot for Polanco and the Twins. He was never a defensive asset at short, but showed standout ability at second, where he looked increasingly comfortable and natural over time. Polanco was able to shake off his power-sapping ankle issues and recapture his excellent standard of offensive production. 
As a second baseman, Polanco got his career back on track and then some. He was the team's most valuable player.
In light of this development, you can see why the Twins would be reluctant to turn around and reverse course. As Dan Hayes of The Athletic mentioned when I posed the idea on Twitter, "It was not lost on [the Twins] that Polanco’s health was not an issue after early May and that he responded well physically to second base."
In Dan's well-informed estimation, moving Polanco back to shortstop is "somewhere around Plan M" for the Twins. And I believe it. But my question is ... should that be the case?
Clearly the Twins are not diametrically opposed to playing Polanco at short. He was their primary backup last year and started there 26 times. It's a question of how willing they are to shift him back into regular duties, as a temporary solution to a pressing problem. Maybe the M in "Plan M" stands for...
Making the best
This Twins front office prides itself on being flexible, adaptable, and opportunistic. Through this lens, when you look at all circumstances, sliding Polanco back to shortstop makes a great deal of sense.
Not only does his presence at second base leave a complete void on the shortstop depth chart – it also creates a logjam behind him at second. Luis Arraez is displaced to the point where he looks like a prime trade candidate. Behind him, young talents like Nick Gordon and Jose Miranda have nowhere to play regularly even if they're deserving. Top prospect Austin Martin also might be best suited at second.
Moving Polanco back to short for the time being would free up second base for one or several of these players to step in and receive valuable playing time. Meanwhile, it would prevent the front office from having to make a desperation-fueled move to address the shortstop vacancy.
What else is out there?
The high end of free agency at shortstop has mostly been picked over. The Twins aren't going to sign Carlos Correa and they're probably not going to sign Trevor Story. There are a handful of starting-caliber options remaining, in the Jose Iglesias and Andrelton Simmons mold, but they are not very inspiring. If just a few more names come off the board quickly when free agency fires back up, you're exclusively in backup territory. 
Trades are an option, of course. But that means giving up assets that you could be using to acquire pitching.
Finding a shortstop who's going to pair with Polanco, and give you a better keystone combo than Polanco and Arraez, will be very hard. I say that while being fully aware of the defensive shortcomings yielded by the latter arrangement.
If nothing else, moving Polanco back to short would be a temporary fix designed to buy time. Until Royce Lewis demonstrates that he is (or isn't) the franchise's future at shortstop. Until they've had a chance to sort through second basemen like Arraez, Gordon, Miranda, and Martin. 
Once a better shortstop option comes along, the Twins can move Polanco back to his preferred position across the bag. 
Is this kind of back-and-forth player shuffling ideal or optimal? No, but "optimal" has sorta gone out the window at this point. Polanco's a veteran with plenty of experience at both middle infield positions. He's answered the call whenever needed. If anyone can handle the disruption it's him, and he'd be doing the team a hell of a solid.
Sorting through solutions
Even with the limited remaining options to address shortstop, I'm not saying this is the best one. If the Twins can find a viable taker for Josh Donaldson, or get a really good offer for Arraez, that changes the equation by alleviating the infield logjam. Similarly, if they can swing a no-brainer deal for a shortstop like Paul DeJong, I could get behind that.
But if the "solution" to their problem is signing someone like Iglesias or Simmons as a stopgap, and then struggling to find at-bats for better players buried on the 2B depth chart behind Polanco ... is that really any better than pivoting back to the 2020 setup? 
The simplest solution to the front office's current problem at shortstop is right in front of their face. Are they willing to embrace Plan M?
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