DeepFriedTwinkie

Both guys played for the Senators. Anybody know the longest tenures since the team moved? I suppose Killebrew is probably still near the top of the list.

I really like this comment, and I think that it's a point that is often missed. The "price" that a GM pays for a free agent is already adjusted for the perceived risk of that player geting injured or underperforming. It is also adjusted for the perceived "risk" that the player outperforms. Unfortunately, I think that in many cases the team that ends up signing a free agent is often the team that most severely underestimates the risk associated with the contract.

I would agree with that. I also wonder about the likelihood of a bad throw to second trying to get hicks, which allows doumit to score from 3rd.

I used a 4.0 run scoring environment (3.0 to 6.5 scale). Here are the rates in the most extreme run scoring environments: 3.0 => 83% breakeven 6.5 => 79% breakeven That's backwards of what I would have thought originally, but now that I think about it the run scoring env applies to both teams. A higher RSE makes it more likely that the Brewers can rally from four down. I can see where that makes it slightly more tempting to go after insurance runs.

I've actually already done the calculations where there is just a runner on 1st for a few late-game scenarios. Could easily update it to look at the 1st and 3rd scenario, though.

We can account for the situation (bottom 6th, one out, up four) and calculate the breakeven rate by comparing win expectancies (The Win Probability Inquirer): WE before steal: 97.12% WE if successful steal: 97.38% WE if caught stealing: 95.86% Implied breakeven rate: 83% This shows two things: 1. You should believe that Hicks has an 83% chance of stealing 2nd in this situation before sending him. 2. Even in the unfavorable outcome (caught stealing), you still have a 95% chance of winning.

What surprised about Baker's signing as much as the money was the timing. It seems to me that if there were that many teams willing to pony up $5M+ for his services, he wouldn't have jumped on the Cubs offer at this early in the offseason.