Physics Guy

Nice article Parker. I enjoyed the read. I would be happy if the Twins signed any of the three pitchers since they would all be an upgrade. I'd prefer Nolasco at $52M/4yrs, maybe a team option for 5. Maybe Ryan could agree to an incentive-laden one year contract for Johnson and turn it into something similar to what we did with Pavano.

Here's a link to an article (Insider) by Buster Olney regarding potential FA SP bargains: 10 potential bargain starting arms - ESPN For those without Insider privileges, here's the 10 he lists: Arroyo, Hudson, Burnett, Colon, Feldman, Kazmir, Haren, Hughes and J. Johnson. I think it's reasonable to think this is the sort of list Terry Ryan is shopping from. I don't see him going after the very top of the list (E.Santana, Jimenez, Garza and Tanaka). I could very well see him picking up a couple from this list. I'd prefer any of the last four and wouldn't mind Arroyo.

I think I would give the Cards any three guys that aren't Sano, Buxtton or Meyer for Miller. The problem is that they want a SS.

Thanks for the link.

I still don't get why the Rangers didn't trade Andrus last year before giving him that contract. He had a .659 OPS last year. After this year (when he makes $6.475M) he will be making $15M a year for the next eight and they have what everybody believes is an excellent replacement for him in Profar.

Miller for Profar is the trade both teams might consider. My guess is Texas might want a little more and because of that the trade wouldn't happen. St. Louis probably wants nothing to do with Andrus' salary. Just because we want Miller doesn't mean we have a snowball's chance in hell of being involved in this trade. I don't see how we can get involved unless Sano or Buxton are part of it.

Thanks for putting yourself out there, Shane. Overall, I think you have some good ideas. I know you have been a big proponent for dumping most of our veterans. I like your ideas, but just don't think most of your trade proposals would be taken by the other teams. Relievers are pretty fungible and Doumit and Willingham's stock are way down. I think you have the right idea regarding free-agent pitchers, although 5 years of Santana scares me a bit. Every couple of years he throws out a clunker. Unfortunately, the Twins will have to go 4 or 5 years to get somebody who is an upgrade. I agree that Plouffe and Parmelee should be given another opportunity. While Plouffe didn't take the next step last year, I am still intrigued by his power. We need to find out if Parmelee is capable of being a player. I'm starting to get the feeling that both he and Colabello are AAAA players.

I would be more than fine with replacing one of the FA signings with Bailey, contingent on him signing an extension. I doubt Boston lets Lester go. He is their #1 pitcher and they can afford to keep him. Anderson is a good pitcher, but his injury history is not good. If you can get him on the cheap, fine.

You are right in that Tanaka will not personally get $20M per season, but the Twins would most likely have to pay that out. ($50M posting to team + $50M/5yr contract as an estimate). Rangers paid just over $50M posting fee and $60M/6 yr contract. The fact that only the player contract goes against the cap does not diminish the fact that the Twins will most likely view the entire amount in their budget.

I don't dispute that the Twins can afford Tanaka. I just think Ryan will have difficulties finding the nerve to throw $100M at anyone. I think he may struggle to give a pitcher $10M+ per year, much less $20M (and yes I do realize not all of it goes to the pitcher).

I agree completely with the Twins being proactive. I agree that 3/$42M may be a bit high for Haren, but I think that's what the Twins need to do in order to ensure they get him. Two people have argued for 2/22 or 2/20, but I doubt that will get it done. I think the Twins would stand a good chance of getting him if they add a third year. Once you're looking at $10M+ per year, what is a couple million more. The Twins need to overpay to show people (FA and the fans) that they are serious about righting the ship. I originally wrote a blog that was the basis for starting this thread. My guidelines were to propose a rotation that was feasible, yet more aggressive than the Twins have been in the past. I was making an assumption that the Twins might spend $25-30M in free agency. I've seen many posts that are pushing for Tanaka and a few for Santana. I just don't see the Twins going big enough for Tanaka. Both the posting fee and the eventual contract will most likely be each be more than double what is the most of any FA contract the Twins have given out ($21M for Willingham). As for Ervin Santana, I can't see Ryan giving up a 2nd rounder to sign him if indeed the Royals do give him the qualifying offer. I sincerely hope I am wrong about both, as I would be happy for the Twins to have either player. I just don't feel either is likely.

Does anybody have evidence of this so-called connection to Minnesota that Josh Johnson has? I realize that he was born here, but spent most of his life in Texas I believe. I've heard several people reference this, but have a feeling it's just because they see he was born here. I'm curious if anybody has seen anything written by the national media.

I picked Haren because I think he might be a bargain due to perceptions like yours. He finished strong this year, hopefully is over some of the health issues he was having. First Half - 5.61 ERA, 1.419 WHIP, .852 OPS against, 7.8 K/9 Second Half - 3.52 ERA, 1.017 WHIP, .636 OPS against , 8.2 K/9 Haren will be only 33 next year and I could live with a three year contract for him. Since he doesn't rely on great velocity, I would think he would age well. I blogged in more detail about the rotation: Twins 2014 Rotation - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum

I believe Jimenez has the option if he is traded, which he was by the Rockies.

The Twins need to fill the top two spots in their rotation for 2014. What are your thoughts about this possible rotation: #1) Dan Haren - 3 yrs, $42M #2) Ricky Nolasco - 4 yrs, $48M #3) Samuel Deduno #4) Kyle Gibson #5) Kevin Correia If Deduno isn't healthy we can bump Gibson and Correia up and put in Diamond, Worley, Albers, Meyer or May. Could the Twins be .500 with this rotation if they make no other changes to the team?

I would hope they would find a spot for Meyer if he proves he is ready.

It seems a bit early for this, but I think the Twins need to be aggressive early in free agency this year. Jim Pohlad has made it clear that the bank is open if Terry Ryan decides to spend money in free agency this offseason. As John Bonnes recently wrote, the Twins could easily have $25-$30M to spend on payroll this season. Twins Daily - TwinsDaily Video: How Much Pitching Can The Twins Afford I would like to expand upon this and propose what I would like the Twins to do this offseason. I am working under the assumption that Terry Ryan will actually spend money in free agency this offseason. While this is clearly debatable, I will attempt to work within the parameters of spending less than $30M. First off, lets discuss what the Twins have currently signed for the rotation. Samuel Deduno, while finishing the season on the DL, looks to be a solid back-of-the-rotation starter. Kevin Correia was certainly not a world-beater this season, but I would argue he was worth the contract he signed. I have no problem with him being our #4 or #5 starter. Kyle Gibson struggled in his first stint with the Twins but still holds promise of being a #3 or maybe even a #2. Other pitchers who started this season who could pitch in the rotation, in order of likelihood, are Scott Diamond, Vance Worley and Andrew Albers. The Twins should open the 2014 season with the following rotation: #1) FA pitcher TBNL #2) FA pitcher TBNL #3) Deduno #4) Gibson #5) Correia If Deduno is not healthy, Gibson and Correia slide up and Diamond takes the #5 slot. Meyer and May could also be in the discussion, but I would rather see them start in AAA this season. As for the TBNL (to be named later) FA acquisitions, lets start by weeding out the pitchers who Terry Ryan won't sign. Matt Garza - He will most likely bring in the highest per year salary this offseason. Let's get serious here. Do we really think after last season that Ryan is going after the top of the market guy. Masahiro Tananka - While his average yearly salary might be lower than Garza's, there is this little issue of a $40-$60M posting fee. Despite what he has said publicly, I'm not sure Pohlad could stomach that. Ervin Santana - He likely gets a qualifying offer, so I doubt the Twins will want to sacrifice their 2nd rounder in a supposed deep draft. Hiroki Kuroda - At his age, I doubt he would want to sign with a rebuilding team. AJ Burnett - It sounds like he is considering retirement if he can't pitch in Pittsburgh. Tim Lincecum - He continues to regress and I can't see his body holding out much longer for a pitcher who has so much effort in his delivery. He just scares me. So, who should the Twins sign? For the #1 spot in the rotation, I have two options. My top choice would be Dan Haren and the second would be Ubaldo Jimenez. Both should be available for $10-$15M per season. At first glance, Haren had a poor season. He finished 10-14 with a 4.67 ERA. However, his FIP and xFIP were 4.09 and 3.67 and he finished with his highest K% in three years. His numbers were horrible in June, but he had an ERA of 3.52 and WHIP of 1.017 after the All-Star break. I would like to see them sign him for three years at $39-45M. While Jimenez continues to walk batters at a scary rate, he clearly figured something out this season. Like Haren, Jimenez would give us a pitcher who can actually strike batters out. Signing Jimenez would have the added impact of taking a top pitcher from AL Central rival, the Cleveland Indians. Since he is younger, I would consider giving him a four year deal maybe in the $52-$56M range. For the #2 spot in the rotation, I would go after the following pitchers in this order: Nolasco, Kazmir, Arroyo, Josh Johnson, Phil Hughes, Scott Feldman, and Jason Vargas. Nolasco and Kazmir appear at the top of this list due to production and K rate. Nolasco is likely to receive the largest payday of this group and might approach Haren and Jimenez. I think he is likely to resign with the Dodgers. I have Arroyo ahead of Johnson due to his higher floor. I like the upside of Johson, but his injury history scares me. I would be more willing to gamble on Johnson if I knew Deduno was healthy or Meyer was nearly ready for the bigs. Phil Hughes' numbers away from Yankee Stadium give me reason to believe he needs a change in scenery. Feldman and Vargas would be acceptable fall back positions, but seem a bit similar to Correia. So idealy, the Twin start 2014 season with a rotation of: Haren, Nolasco, Deduno, Gibson and Correia. If they were to sign both Haren and Nolasco, I doubt they would have much money left to spend elsewhere on the roster. I would be fine with that. Cleary the rotation is problems 1,2 and possibly 3 for the Twins. If they don't figure it out, nothing else much matters. Hopefully Ryan learns from last years inactivity and doesn't get caught without a chair when the music stops

1 - I agree, just can't see Ryan forking over that kind of dough. 2 - Agree, I think Pinto catches 80 -100 games and think a vet to fill in the rest would be a good idea. Mauer becomes 1B. 3 - This has to happen, no discussion. 4 - Don't see this happening unless Plouffe implodes in ST. Twins need to wait until June. 5 - Can see why this could happen, but I doubt it.

I guess that depends on what you consider a building block. Is he a top player on a playoff team? No, he is not. Can he be a valuable starter for more than a couple of years? I think he is capable of that. He's clearly not at Knoblauch's level, but he appears to be a significant improvement over Lombardozzi and Rivas, two of the longer-serving second basemen during some of the better years for the Twins. Both Lombo and Rivas appear to have been regulars for at least three years. I give Dozier a good chance of doing better than that.

Looking at the way things have worked the past couple of years, I think you are looking at two open spots. It seems to me that the Twins kept 13 pitchers on the roster last year. That is unless you are thinking of a 6 man rotation. I would prefer they only have 12 pitchers, but we'd actually need some starters to make it into the 7th inning on a regular basis.

I think trading for Bailey would be a good move and is more in line with what I expect Ryan to do. Trade for him and then spend some of the money they are hoarding to sign him to a 4-5 year deal. Despite all of the talk, I have my doubts that Ryan spends big on a FA. I truly hope I am wrong, but think the best Ryan will end up with in FA is a Vargas/Feldman type.

Not a pretty start for the Twins. Buxton and Kepler both 1/6, Meyer gives up 3 in 3 IP and Zach Jones gives up 5 in 2/3 IP.

I could see that as a possible reason, but also highly likely caused by a bunch of young players getting their feet wet and AAAA players getting too many AB.

Why shouldn't Anderson get some credit for the success of the bullpen? Aren't those players in the bullpen considered pitchers? Cuellar should get some recognition also. Anderson should also receive some criticism for the rotation. I would suggest that a greater amount of praise for the bullpen and criticism for the rotation should be directed at Terry Ryan. He continually finds "diamonds in the rough" for the BP, but has had minimal success with the rotation. I would probably fit in the "FO apologists" category, but after this offseason I will have a tough time supporting TR if he sits on his hands.

No, this isn't a primer for the upcoming series between the Twins and A's. Y! SPORTS Let's hope the "sewage" is contained to the A's dugout over the next three days.