Physics Guy

Without a doubt, health dragged them down last year. I have hopes that the moves this year have given them better depth at key positions and in the rotation. I do wonder if they would have made the Gallo move A) if they knew they were getting Correa and B) if they knew they wouldn't get appealing offers for Kepler.

I couldn't agree more. A baseball season can often wreck the best laid plans. The only two things I think the FO failed to address was adding another quality bullpen arm and adding a RH bat in the corners. Both of those were sort of addressed with Taylor and the return of Alcala, but they could definitely be addressed during the season.

Much of this off-season has been frustrating for Twins fans. Once again, the Twins failed to pick up a bona fide ace to front the rotation. They did however pull off a major coup by re-signing Carlos Correa for a contract valued will below what many predicted he would get going into the off-season. They also solidified the depth in the rotation by trading fan-favorite Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez. As we approach Spring Training, where do the Twins stand? Let us take a look at predicting the Twins' record based on WAR. Last year, the Twins totaled 36.1 WAR as a team, resulting in a 78-84 record. There is a strong correlation between team WAR and overall wins. https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-wins A team constructed of all 0 WAR players is said to be around a 50 win team. It could be argued that the Twins under-performed based on their season WAR total last year and probably should have been in the low to mid-80's for wins. A team war total of 45 or better should get the team to a win total in the 90's. So how do the changes made by the front office equate to 45+ WAR for the 2023 Twins? Below is a projection for individual WAR values for the upcoming season. Each player listed below is followed by a projected number of games and their associated WAR (based on b-WAR). Starting IF (12.8 Combined WAR) Vazquez (105, 1.2), Kirilloff (120, 1.5), Polanco (140, 3.0), Correa (140, 5.6) Miranda (130, 1.5). The question marks here are Kirlloff and Miranda. Neither is projected to add huge numbers to the team's total and players such as Kyle Farmer and Joey Gallo can mitigate those two. Both Kirlloff and Miranda have the potential to produce higher WAR values than projected. Starting OF/DH (12.6 Comined WAR) Gallo (120, 1.8), Buxton (60 CF, 60 DH, 5.0), Kepler (120, 1.8), Taylor (120, 2.5), Larnach (110, 1.5). There are several question marks here, starting with Gallo. The Twins obviously feel Gallo still has some of what he showed in Texas. Kepler, Gallo and Larnach are all projected to be similar and if one slips, Gordon gives some additional protection. Having Michaeal A. Taylor to play 100 games in CF allows the Twins to keep Buxton healthy and potentially play 120 games in 2023. This could be done by a rotation of something like this every eight games: CF, DH, Bench, CF, DH, CF, Bench, DH. Obviously projecting 120 G from Buxton is a gamble, but he did put up 4.0 WAR in 92 G in 2022. Bench (1.9 Combined WAR) Jeffers (55, 0.7), Farmer (100, 0.7), Gordon (60, 0.5). While this may not appear a strength, this may be where this year's Twins may be set up to improve on 2022. They appear to have more depth and players not listed (Wallner, Celestino, Garlick, Lewis, Julien and Lee) potentially able to come up and fill in as needed. Rotation (12.8 Combined WAR) Gray (3.0), P.Lopez (3.0), Ryan (2.4), Mahle/Maeda/Ober (4.4). Projecting games here was a bit of a challenge. Gray and Lopez's WAR values are in the range of their past two season and Ryan's projects a slight increase from last season (2.2). Mahle, Maeda and Ober all have health concerns, but the hope is that they can hold down the fort between the three of them. Having Varland, Winder and Woods-Richardson in AAA as players ready step in also mitigates a huge drop in WAR production. There is no "horse" raising this group's WAR, just a bunch of solid contributors. Bullpen (6.8 Combined WAR) Duran (2.5), J.Lopez (1.5), Jax (1.0), Thielbar (0.7) Moran (0.7), Alcala (0.4), Pagan (0), Megill (0). The biggest concerns here are Lopez producing closer to what he did in Baltimore as well as Pagan and Megill being used in situations that do not produce negative WAR. This is one area the front office could still help the 2023 Twins. A Michael Fullmer signing makes a ton of sense. Altogether, this projection gives the Twins 46.9 WAR as a group, enough to push them to 90+ wins for 2023. This should put them solidly into playoff consideration with the new playoff format. While some of the projections may seem optimistic, it could be argued that they are all well within historical performances and allowing for some development from younger players. This squad seems better situated to deal injuries than the past couple of years. The Twins have above average backups for the three toughest defensive positions (Jeffers, Farmer and Taylor). While there may have been moves that the front office could have made this year to make this team better, it seems as though the floor for this squad is as high as we've seen for a few years.

I appreciate you clarifying your position as I too was confused. I'm not sure the vitriol in the rest of the post is necessary. While I now better understand your position, I couldn't disagree more. Yes, a team like the Twins needs to maximize assets. Trading expiring contracts is certainly one way to do so, but doing that in the middle of a potential playoff push makes no sense to me. Regardless of how well one of the young pitchers is doing, it's unlikely they would be more valuable than a veteran that is pitching well. The clubhouse would be enraged if they traded a starter in that scenario. If the team is floundering, by all means they should trade. Actually, not trading them in that situation is negligence by the FO in my opinion.

C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) SS: Dansby Swanson ($25M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) Payroll is 19.64% under budget

Steep price, but if Twins are happy with Miranda (and they should be), those two are blocked at 3B. I'm a little surprised they would trade two 3B prospects, although Steer might be more likely a 2B. The Twins don't have a regular in the lineup over 30, so it was time to dump some prospects for SP. I'm still perturbed they didn't just spend in FA for a starter, but this is a good option after the fact. The additional year of control for Mahle helps.

While adding Rodriguez on a reasonable contract is fine, Story is the only one that makes sense to me. They have a clear need at the position and a cloudy future in the prospect area at the position. While Story seems to have declined some recently, he is a dramatic improvement over the last two years at the position. The FO has shown they won't spend big money on FA pitching, so why not use some of the surplus budget on Story? They would still be well under last year's payroll. The other necessary move is to trade for a Sonny Gray/Chris Bassitt type to front the rotation and fill the #5 slot with rotating prospects.

Not a fan of the opener, but it seems to me Jax's likely position will be as a multiple inning reliever. With our (likely) young staff and the propensity for 5 inning outings from starters, we need a guy that can throw a couple of innings once or twice a week. It's up to Rocco and Wes to figure out a way to maximize him in the bullpen. I just don't see him as an SP long-term. If you need to have a bullpen game, fine have Jax start. Otherwise, it's time to put him in the BP. Plenty of failed starters have become excellent relievers.

Carlos Correa and Trevor Story beg to differ.

It feels like #1 is most likely at this juncture. #2 is unlikely to me as I can't see Falvey & Levine trading away a significant amount of their prospect pool to acquire a front end SP. They could have spent money they have available to sign one of the FA pitchers such as Ray, Gaussman or Stroman. Any one of those would have been a satisfactory signing. I suspect Greinke, Pineda, J. Iglesias and a couple of RP sounds about right. Ugh...

This is where I am at. I sense a bunch of anger about the Twins not signing Berrios, but we really don't know what was offered to him. From my recollection Berrios has made it clear the past couple of years that he wanted to reach free agency, so it would have been crazy not to trade him if he was set on getting to FA. While I agree with much of the article, this part: "...and if an injury bug hadn’t hit him, the price tag would be well north of $250 million." seems a bit disingenuous. Buxton has played over 100 G once in 7 seasons. It's not just one little injury that has the Twins maybe a bit hesitant to offer big money. I'm not saying I'm opposed to offering over $100 million on a heavily incentive-laden contract , but let's not act like it's crazy to not want to commit big money to a player who has played less than 40% of the team's games the last four years. That being said I'd honestly be fine with something like a 7 year/$140 M contract, but I'd want the base to start at $70 M. Allow him to earn up to another $10 M per season based on games played, starting with incentives when he clears 100G. I'm not sure what is allowed as far as incentives, but I'm pretty sure they can't be performance-based. I think they have to be based on games or plate appearances.

While I can see the argument for Abreu and Santana being ahead of Sano, given the choice I would want Sano. Barring injury, I see minimal chance Sano is below 3rd in the division. Actually, I would say Santana is the likeliest to fall. Sano will be 28 this season, vs 35 for Santana and 34 for Abreu. Sano has a higher career OPS than Santana and Abreu's 2020 was a significant outlier from the previous two seasons. 2019 OPS: Sano 0.923, Santana, 0.911 and Abreu 0.834. If Sano plays 140-150 games this year, my money would be on Sano for sure for exactly the reason you stated. Sano's exit velocity is a strong indicator of success. He needs to reduce his K rate, but his EV leads to more hits on balls put in play. When the poll came out on Twitter, I voted for Abreu (for this year). Long term give me Sano all day.

I think this sounds about right. I have no feeling for Gibaut and Waddell, but I would think Hamilton has the inside track due to the fact he has been claimed three times now. If the Twins like him I doubt they want to try to get him through waivers. It also helps that he has at least a minimum of MLB experience. I like the additions of Colome and Robles. Colome takes some of the pressure off of Rogers and gives them a great top 3. While Robles could be a bust, he was a good value add with some upside. Alcala offers excellent insurance if Robles doesn't work. He could be the next guy to rise up the ladder. I do have one quibble. I really don't think Rogers has struggled against RH. In 2019 he had a better OPS against vs RH (.611) than LH (.677). In 2018 it was .643 vs RH and .428 vs LH. I think he will rebound and have a great 2021. He was definitely a bit unlucky last year and having Colome will help. It will allow Rocco to use him better in advantageous matchups.

Who will win the AL Central in 2021? Since the White Sox traded for Lance Lynn, added Adam Eaton to address a need in the OF and then spent big to add Liam Hendriks to their bullpen, the White Sox have been the favorite to win the division. ESPN recently posted their projected All-Stars for 2021. Let's just say it was much kinder to the White Sox: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30833382/let-predict-2021-mlb-all-star-rosters-al-nl They projected 6 White Sox and didn't include Abreu. The Twins had a few mentions (Garver, Donaldson and Buxton) but mostly because of injury questions. Cruz was the only Twin on the list. While it does appear that the Sox may have more star power, let's analyze how the teams stack up. Let's start with the rotations, where the top 5 for the Twins are likely Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Happ and Dobnak. The White Sox projected top 5 are Giolito, Keuchel, Lynn, Dylan Cease and Carlos Rodon/Reynaldo Lopez. The Twins had a team ERA of 3.58 and the White Sox were at 3.81. I would agree that adding Lynn (as much as it pains me) improves the Sox slightly more that Happ does the Twins. Keuchel is due for some significant regression, but Giolito should make up for some of that. Maeda isn't likely to repeat a #2 in the Cy young race season, but some continued improvement by Berrios and a full year of Pineda can make up for some of his regression. While the starters can be slotted in multiple orders, I feel confident in saying the Twins win two of the matchups and the White Sox 2 with the #5 spot being a push. Overall, I think these rotations are very comparable. The Hendriks signing for the White Sox clearly helps their bullpen, but the subtraction of Colome should not be dismissed. The White Sox rely on a younger group of relievers behind Hendriks that do have promise. Whether the Twins will have an improved bullpen this year is up for debate. Adding Colome, Robles and Anderson while removing May, Romo and Clippard would suggest a downgrade. The Twins front office and coaching staff have shown the ability to build a very solid bullpen with what sometimes looks like questionable parts. I do like the upside of Jorge Alcala and hope he can fill a role similar to Trevor May from last season. I like the top three of the Twins (Colome, Rogers and Duffey) over the Sox, but I think I would give the Sox a slight edge at this point. It does still feel like the Twins might have a Clippard-like signing to finish off their offseason. Thus far, I would give the White Sox an ever so slight advantage. Now let's analyze each position. At catcher, the White Sox may have the more complete player in Grandal, but if Garver can find some of his 2019 form I feel like the Twins have a slight edge due to their depth with Jeffers. At first it's Abreu vs Sano. It's hard to argue against last year's AL MVP, but the White Sox edge at 1B may not be as great as it appears. The 34 year old definitely benefited from the short season as he put up an OPS 150 pts higher than either of the previous two seasons. It was encouraging to see Sano play 53/60 games for the Twins this past year and it's not unreasonable to think Sano could match Abreu's output this season, although I still give Abreu the edge. The Simmons signing for the Twins helps them in multiple ways. Moving Jorge Polanco to 2B gives the Twins the edge at 2B over Nick Madrigal, although Arraez may have already had that edge. Polanco provides much more pop than Madrigal. Moving Arraez to Util also give the Twins an edge over fielding-first Danny Mendick. The White Sox have the edge at SS with the back-to-back .300 seasons from Tim Anderson over Andrelton Simmons. To round out the infield, we have the interesting case of Josh Donaldson versus Yoan Moncada. We have a pretty good idea of what Donaldson brings when healthy, but of course that is the kicker. Can he play 140 games? Moncada had a breakout season in 2019 with a .915 OPS, but struggled mightily last season, possibly due to the lingering effects of contracting coronavirus prior to the season. I'd give the edge to Moncada, but this could easily go either way. The scorecard in the infield goes 3-2 for the Sox if you include Util, but this is a close race. The outfield has some intriguing comparisons as well. Eloy Jimenez gets the edge in LF over whoever the Twins put out there. He has an all-star level bat but by all accounts should probably be a DH. Max Kepler struggled a bit in 2020 but should be able to out-produce Adam Eaton. At CF we get to compare two former #1 overall prospects in baseball. Luis Robert was on a tear to start 2020 but struggled the second half. Byron Buxton has two years in a row with a .800+ OPS, but continues to have difficulty staying on the field. Robert probably gets the edge here until Buxton proves he can stay on the field, but Robert does need to show that he can make adjustments to what the league did to him in the second half. Jake Cave is better than anything the White Sox currently have for a fourth outfielder. Let's call the OF a push leaning the Twins' way. What else is left to discuss? Don't worry, I didn't forget the Twins' biggest advantage, which is at DH. The Twins do have a significant advantage with Nelson Cruz over whoever the Sox put at DH, at least until Father Time finally catches up to Cruz. The Twins have a solid backup who will need AB, in Brent Rooker, that they can use to spell Cruz and keep him fresh. The last debate comes with team defense. This is where the Simmons signing really makes a difference. In looking at several metrics on Baseball Reference and Fangraphs, the White Sox had the edge in 2019, although the Twins were closer than you think. As a composite, it appears as though both teams were in the top 10 in MLB with the Sox being a few spots ahead of the Twins. The Twins have definitely closed that gap and possible passed up the Sox. The fact that 6 players given All-Star nods for the White Sox in the ESPN article (Giolito, Hendriks, Grandal, Anderson, Jimenez and Robert), tends to make one feel they are way ahead of the Twins. One could argue that the Twins have a near comparable player to each one of those and greater team depth. I completely understand where the national pundits are coming from, but I think the race will be neck and neck all season. If the Twins get 140 games out of Donaldson, Sano and Buxton I feel like they win the AL Central, possibly quite comfortably. Clearly the issue will be if that is possible. We will all find out in October.

Ok, I'll give you the salary, but it's more like 1/3 of that since we didn't acquire him until the trade deadline.