rukavina

Twins fans were rightfully excited about acquring slick fielding SS Andrelton Simmons last night.
 
If you want to spend a fun 10 mintues, check out his defensive highlight reel
. 
There's no doubt that grabbing the best defensive SS since Ozzie Smith will upgrade the Twins roster.
 
Combine Simmons with already strong defenders in Buxton, Donaldson, Jeffers, and Kepler, you can see how quickly the mind would shift to "well, what does this mean for their pitching?".
 
In my opinion, this means two things:
 
1) It upgrades the Twins existing staff (and should be helpful to one guy in particular)
2) It might tell us a bit about who the Twins could target next for a SP, given their newly upgraded defense
 
Simmons Impact on Existing Twins Pitchers:
 
Looking purely at GB% (calculated by the number of ground balls induced/number of balls put in play), we know that based on an improved defense, the more balls hit on the ground, the higher chance they have to be converted into outs than they did 24 hours ago (pre-Simmons signing).
 
It's even more fun to look at how much better the Twins defense is than in 2017 when Falvey and Levine took over. JD Cameron takes a look into that here.
 
From Fangraphs, a "ground ball pitcher" is any pitcher who has a GB% over 50%. League wide in 2019 - 2020, the average GB% was 42.8%.
 
Here is how the Twins current staff stacks up by GB% using combined stats from the 2019 and 2020 seasons.
For the most part, the majority of the staff has a below average GB% (would love to see what this chart looked like for the 2004 pitch-to-contact Twins).
 


 
Two names stand out here.
 
1. Randy Dobnak - GB% of 58.8%***
2. Taylor Rogers - GB% of 48.2%
 
***Since he came into the league, Randy Dobnak ranks 7th out of 284 pitchers in GB%.
 
Which SP could the Twins acquire that would benefit most from the Twins defense?
 
Given that any ball hit on the left side of the infield should be vaccumed up quicker than a Dyson, maybe this shifts how the front office approaches filling out the rotation. Ground ball pitchers stand to gain a lot if their infield can consistently convert more ground balls into outs.
 
It's the little things in baseball that make the major differences.
 
From 2019 - 2020, there were 284 pitchers that threw at least 75 IP.
 
Below are the ranks and GB% for the remaining free agents.
 
For this exercise, I only focused on FA that had a GB% at 44% or higher.
 
You can see the entire list from Fangraphs here.
 
Brett Anderson - 55.2% (17th)
Jake Arrieta - 51.4% (30th)
Adam Wainwright - 47.4% (71st)
Cole Hamels - 47.0% (79th)
Aaron Sanchez - 46.9% (81st)
Homer Bailey - 44% (128th)
 
Below are the ranks for potential trade candidates that have popped up in rumors. Again, I only focused on players with a GB% of 44% or higher.
 
Luis Castillo - 56.1% (13th)
Sonny Gray - 50.9% (35th)
German Marquez - 49.5% (52nd)
Jon Gray - 46.9% (81st)
 
BONUS. Here are a couple bullpen free agents that could benefit from a good defensive infield:
 
Jeremy Jeffress - 50.0%
Alex Colome - 47.7%
 
So there you have it. I will be interested to see how the Twins defense positively impacts the pitching staff all year long. Specifically, I am excited to see what this means for Randy Dobnak.
 
For now, I am most interested to see what the Simmons acquisition means in how the Twins front office addresses the rest of their pitching needs.
 
Do any names on this list jump out to you as being good targets for the Twins? Maybe now even moreso with a Simmons addition?

So much is being written and debated concerning MLB ownership’s unwillingness to spend on free agency, whether the big ticket guys like Machado and Harper, or more middle of the pack veterans.
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
 
The players’ union obviously got completely dominated in the last couple of rounds of negotiations over the Collective Bargaining Agreement. Limits on amatuer player signing bonuses, limits on international player bonuses and a completely ineffective policy on artificially restricting service time are all evidence of just how impotent the MLBPA has been.
 
Now, everyone talks about how baseball is broken, because clubs “tank” and justify it with fans as an effective way to “rebuild.”
 
But can anyone really expect things to change? Given the history of players failing to agree to act in a unified manner, can we really expect to see much change in the next round of CBA negotiations? In fact, it may already be too late for players to get their acts together by the time the current agreement expires following the 2021 season. Players can’t just wait until parties are sitting at the negotiating table. If they do, they’ve already lost.
 
There’s a terrific article by Michael Baumann over at The Ringer that describes just how difficult it will be for the players to make any progress in the next CBA and why a work stoppage might be their only recourse. He argues that players need to immediately start publicly calling out their ownerships for non-competititve practices. Putting their case in front of the fans, however, is just the start.
 
“But it’s not enough for players to win over the fans—they have to present a united front within the union as well. Whether deliberately or through extremely fortuitous coincidence, MLB teams have put financial solidarity above the desire to compete. But players are routinely encouraged to go above and beyond the strict call of duty in order to gain an edge over their competitors. Being the self-motivated, hypercompetitive folks that they are, athletes usually oblige, by accepting team-friendly contracts, putting in extra hours training, or agreeing to wear biometric monitors and trading privacy for a perceived competitive edge.”
 
Similarly, ESPN’s Buster Olney published a New Years Eve article (behind ESPN paywall) that disclosed content of a memo that Buster Posey’s agent, Jeff Berry, has been distributing that outlines some actions that players should consider taking to bring attention to the players’ issues and prepare themselves (and fans) for the upcoming labor battle.
 
Among the suggestions are what are known as “work to rule” actions, including:
Players refusing to report earlier for Spring Training than the contractually mandated day of February 23.
Players refusing to participate in non-contractually mandated team events such as fan fests.
Players and agents not attending MLB’s Winter Meetings.
Players boycotting MLB-owned media outlets, such as MLB.com and the MLB Network.

Berry’s memo also proposes that players take a page out of the front offices’ playbook, by funding, “a comprehensive study that analytically supports recommended guidelines for player usage for the stated purpose of maximizing health and performance, maintaining/improving tools and athleticism, and mitigating age- and usage-related decline. Basically, a reverse-engineering of the aging curves and usage rates that teams are currently weaponizing against the players.”
 
In other words, stop letting teams get all the benefit of statistical analysis, especially when the result includes practices detrimental to the players, such as the service time maninpulation that the Minnesota Twins did with Byron Buxton in September when they decided not to promote him, thereby assuring they would benefit from an extra year of his services before he becomes a free agent.
 
Berry argued that, “Front offices are praised as ‘smart’ when working within the rules to extract maximum performance value for minimal monetary cost. Shouldn’t players also be ‘smart’ and likewise make calculated decisions within the rules to maintain and extend their maximum performance levels at maximum monetary values?”
 
Obviously Berry and the authors of these articles are right. The only way the owners and front offices will discontinue the offending practices will be if they are forced to. And they won’t be forced to by the players politely asking for change at the negotiating table in 2021.
 
The question is, will players unify enough between now and then to take actions such as those being suggested?
 
Can you imagine your favorite Twins players staying away from Twins Fest? The established players already no longer participate in the Twins Caravan, but what happens to the caravans if NO players agree to participate?
 
Would minor league players also agree to stand with their MLB counterparts and not participate in Twins Fest and the Caravans… even though the union they’d be asked to support has done absolutely nothing to improve the plight of minor leaguers (in fact, often giving away concessions on minor league pay and bonuses in order to get more favorable terms for big league players)?
 
In the past, it has been almost impossible to get superstars making $20 million a year, veterans trying to get a couple extra million dollars and young players still under club control to agree on any unified strategy. They fight amonst themselves and, even when they can agree, they’ve failed miserably at getting the fans behind them. (Hard to imagine boycotting fan fests would help in that area unless, as Berry suggests, they get together to hold similar player-organized events.)
 
If players can’t – or won’t – do what’s necessary between now and 2021 to lay the groundwork for a more balanced negotiation with owners, it’s difficult to imagine the next CBA being anything significantly more competition-encouraging than the current version.
 
But if the players won’t do what’s obviously necessary to improve their situations, it will be hard to feel too sorry for them when they end up stuck with another half-decade or more of similarly one-sided business practices by owners.
 
The players have themselves to blame for the ownership practices they find offensive because they allowed their union to be steamrolled. If they allow it again, it will just reinforce how individually selfish and short-sighted they are and they’ll deserve exactly what they get.

Eddie Rosario has always been a polarizing player for me. In his first extended stint with the Twins in 2015, he showed flashes of a really exciting all round game. He was a good base runner (4.7 runs above average), a solid defender (2.2 runs above average), and clobbered 13 home runs in his age 23 season. Rosario had excelled throughout 5 minor league destinations, and was noted for having an exceptionally quick bat and hands. There were a few major problems. Rosario struck out a lot (25% in 2015, compared to a league average 21%) and he rarely walked. Like, ever. In 2015 Rosario walked just 15 times in 474 plate appearances, good for a BB% of just 3.2%, well below the league average of 8.1%. Taken together, Rosario’s strikeouts and inability to take a walk amounted to cripplingly poor plate discipline.
 
In 2016 some of the aspects of Rosario’s game which made him exciting disappeared. His base running regressed marginally in 2016, and majorly in 2017. His defense went from good in 2015, to acceptable in 2016, to pretty bad in 2017 (-6.2 runs above average), a dip not often discussed in the Twins heralded ‘nothing falls but raindrops’ outfield, which should be renamed to reflect the fact that anyone not named Byron Buxton is actually a poor to average defensive outfielder.
 
Rosario’s regression and streaky hitting were so infuriating that it led to discussion about whether he would be the odd man out in the Twins up and coming outfield moving forwards, with Buxton spectacular, Kepler solid, and Zack Granite pushing for playing time with an impressive season at Rochester. Throughout his first two seasons, Rosario had shown little progress in his plate discipline, leading folks to voice the possibility that he had hit his ceiling. Enter James Rowson.
 
If Pat Shurmur is the MVP of the Vikings this season, Rowson deserves the same plaudits for his work with Buxton, Polanco, and Rosario in 2017. In researching Rowson, two things seem to stand out about his approach with the young core of Twins hitters; firstly, he wants players to have a high comfort level in taking ownership of their own swings, secondly, he’s keenly aware of the strengths and weaknesses of hit hitters and publicly pushes those buttons. After a game against the White Sox, Rowson named Rosario the player of the game, despite going 0-4, crediting him for helping teammates see more pitches from Jose Quintana which eventually allowed them to force him from the game.
 
Rosario’s numbers from 2017 are a testament to Rowson’s work. He increased his BB% to just under 6%, taking 23 more walks than he did in 2016. Rosario’s OBP jumped almost 30 points, despite a 26 point decrease in his BaBIP from 2016 to 2017. The main cause for this increased ability to get on base? Rosario was significantly more selective with his swings in 2017. He dropped his O-Swing % (the percentage of time he swings at pitches outside the strike zone) from 42% to 37%. This decreased his overall SwStr% around 5% and led to a significantly increased Contact% (percentage of the time a hitter makes contact when swinging at all pitches). Overall, Rosario wasn’t swinging at significantly less pitches, he’s swinging at significantly more hittable ones, leading to a spike in home runs, walks, and isolated power.
 
Entering his final pre-arbitration year in 2018 Rosario will need to keep his improved offensive output going to offset other diminishing skill sets. If Rosario can continue to build upon his improved plate discipline in 2018, he could finish the season as one of the more offensively productive outfielders in the American league.

Well, the Winter Meetings have come and gone with Terry Ryan and the Twins going home empty handed. It wasn't unexpected, albeit a bit frustrating. Regardless, a lot of money was spent the past few days and it got me to thinking. I'm on record saying that Bryce Harper is going to get a $500 million contract. Then it got me to wondering, who's in line for the next Twins payday, and how big will it be?
 
Let's address the elephant in the room first. Yes, the Twins paid Joe Mauer $184 million for eight years of his talents. Yes they were absolutely right in doing so. No, Mauer is not the same player he was, and unfortunately, the value was sapped significantly when Mauer was forced to move from behind the plate. Yes, moving Mauer from catching was the correct and sensible move. No he will never and should never catch again. No, the Twins aren't hamstrung by that contract. No, payroll does not come from attendance or new stadiums, it comes from lucrative TV deals (something the Twins don't have). Yes, Minnesota can afford to spend in the future.
 
Ok, deep breath, I think we covered all of the points of contention there. So now who's next in line for a big cash dump? Let's think a ways ahead here. He's not a free agent until 2022, and he won't even hit arbitration until 2019, but Miguel Sano is going to get paid.
 
To make this exercise a bit more simple for ourselves, let's assume that the Twins don't extend Sano early (though they should look into doing so). By the time Sano hit's free agency in 2022, he will be 29 years old. He'll have played in the big leagues for seven seasons, and likely be established as one of the best power hitters in all of baseball.
 
In looking at what kind of player the Twins may be signing at the age of 29, we need to take into consideration what some of Sano's numbers may look like at that point. In his first 80 games at the major league level, Sano launched 18 homers and drove in 52 runs. On a 162 game basis, that's 36 long balls and 105 runs batted in. Six seasons of that type of production, plus his 2015 performance would have Sano somewhere around 230 homers and 680 runs batted in. Factor in the consideration Sano can be relied upon for 20 plus doubles a year, and an OPS north of .800 and you have a legitimate top five or ten power guy.
 
By means of providing a complete assessment of talent, Sano's fWAR should be considered. In just 80 games during 2015, Sano gave the Twins 2.0 fWAR (a 4.05 mark across 162 games). That number would have been 20th best in the AL in 2015. Also, considering Sano added no value by playing the field, it's an even more impressive mark.
 
Looking at some of the massive contracts given out to power hitters lately, we can try to pencil in a thought process for Sano. At the age of 25, Giancarlo Stanton signed a 13-year, $325 million deal with the Marlins. Averaging 4.15 fWAR thus far in his career, Stanton cashed in. Harper is a few years from free agency, but as mentioned, is likely to get $500 million. He'll be 26, and has averaged 4.85 fWAR thus far in his career. Both of those players are in a tier above Sano, especially considering their defensive value.
 
Trying to find something more comparable, we should probably look a bit higher up the age scale. In fact, we may not need to look any further than this year's free agent class. Enter Chris Davis. The Orioles slugger is on the market at the age of 29 (turning 30 in March). At the moment, Davis has launched 203 homers and driven in 549 runs. He's recorded 168 doubles and owns an .835 career OPS. Essentially, Davis is everything the Twins would hope Sano could be.
 
With that in mind, the talk is that Davis is being floated contracts in the $150 million range. His strikeouts are a problem, but he's shown some positional flexibility playing in the outfield as well as first and third base (sound familiar?).
 
It would seem possible, accounting for inflation, that the Twins offer Sano a seven-year, $170 million contract at the age of 29. The average annual value would check in at $24.3 million (just above Mauer's $23m AAV). Should he exceed his current production, or the market dictate it, I could see the price going up to somewhere around $190-200 million as well. Minnesota would have their superstar locked down until his age 36 season, and would spare itself from the scary cliff that is the years closing in on 40.
 
Right now, Miguel Sano is working on losing some weight and getting used to the outfield. Should things go smoothly for both him and the Twins over the next several seasons, this interesting little exercise could absolutely be the future that awaits the exciting Dominican slugger. Only time will tell.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
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The Twins announced that they have added LHP Taylor Rogers, RHP JT Chargois, OF Adam Brett Walker, LHP Randy Rosario, RHP Yorman Landa, LHP Pat Dean, and LHP Mason Melotakis to their 40-man roster. This leaves 41 players unprotected.
Here is a list of each of the unprotected players along with an risk analysis with the possibility that each player will get selected by another team:
 
RHP Jose Abreu
Age: 23
Height: 5' 11"
Weight: 170 lb
Highest Level: Rookie/Elizabethton
Acquired: Dominican Free Agent
2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 23th in 2014
Last season: 17 G, 26.2 IP, 6.8 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 3.71 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 1.39 WHIP, .272 BABIP
Summary: Very raw player with control and command issues, but extremely tantalizing fastball with a lot of movement. Secondary pitches are work in progress and has declined last season after missing 2014 with Tommy John surgery. Interesting to see how he will bounce back. Highly Unlikely to be taken in the draft
Risk %: 5%
 
 
RHP Jason Adam
Age: 24
Height: 6' 4"
Weight: 225 lb
Highest Level: AAA
Acquired: Traded from the Kansas for Josh Willingham in 2014
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season: Did not play/recovering from surgery 2014 AAA/AA: 29 G, 19 GS, 120.1 IP, 7.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 4.71 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, .345 BABIP
Summary: Was the Royals' 9th prospect according to Baseball America when traded. Mid 90s plus fastball complemented with an above average curve and works in progress slider and changeup. Starter potential. Unlikely to be taken in the draft because of the risk of the postsurgery unknown, but definitely has upside
Risk %: 30%
 
RHP Nick Anderson
Age: 25
Height: 6' 5"
Weight: 195 lb
Highest Level: A
Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent from Independent Leagues in 2015
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A): 9 G, 0 GS, 12 IP, 9 K/9, 0 BB/9, 0.75 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 0.83 WHIP, .1945 BABIP
Summary: Minnesotan. Recent Independent League signing. 97 mph Fastball, but 2 years too old for the league and not too great secondary stuff. Definitely a project. Was there for the taking by any team and was not. Unlikely that he would be taken in the draft, unless someone sees him as a MLB-level project
Risk %: 15%
 
RHP Luke Bard
Age: 25
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 195 lb
Highest Level: A+
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round (42 overall) in 2012
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A): 28 G, 0 GS, 52.1 IP, 8.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 2.41 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, .303 BABIP
Summary: Once (2012) the Twins' 10th best prospect according to Baseball America. One of the many relievers the Twins drafted in high rounds with the hope to turn into starters and ended up having Tommy John surgery. Bard was out all 2014 recoving. But has regressed in every level previously. Last season he was adequate at A ball, but 2 years older than the average player there. So far a dissapointment, and not sure that there will be any takers.
Risk %: 10%
 
 
RHP DJ Baxendale
Age: 24
Height: 6' 2"
Weight: 190 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 10th round in 2012
2015 Prospect Rank: NR; highest: 15th in 2014 offseason.
Last season (AA) : 23 G, 21 GS, 118.1 IP, 7 K/9, 3 BB/9, 3.80 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, .317 BABIP
Summary: Baxendale is all about Command and Control. If that works, he is great, if it does not, he is not. Repeated AA this season at an age a bit younger than average. His fastball has been hittable by more advanced hitters, and this has been his main problem. Cannot make it as a junk ball righty. Lots of potential there, and has some history as a reliever, but I don't think that it is enough for anyone to spend a 25 man roster spot on him.
Risk %: 30%
 
 
RHP Omar Bencomo
Age: 26
Height: 6' 1"
Weight: 170 lb
Highest Level: A+
Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent from Independent Leagues in 2015
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A+) : 3 G, 3 GS, 18 IP, 2.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.50 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 0.90 WHIP, .196 BABIP
Summary: Another one of the Twins' Independent League signings. Started 3 games at a 26 year old at Fort Myers. Organizational depth and more of a candidate for release than a risk to be drafted
Risk %: 5%
 
OF Edgar Corcino
Age: 23
Height: 6' 1"
Weight: 210 lb
Highest Level: A
Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent from Independent Leagues in 2014
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A) : .273/.340/.376; 373 PA, 4 HR, 9 SB, 34 BB, 91 K.
Summary: Yet another one of the Twins' Independent League signings. Started 63 games as a RF and 17 as a CF for Cedar Rapids. Not a prospect and not MLB-ready
Risk %: 15%
 
 
RHP Sam Gibbons
Age: 21
Height: 6' 4"
Weight: 190 lb
Highest Level: A
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Australia in 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A) : 15 G, 15 GS, 90.1 IP, 6.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 2.89 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 1.185 WHIP, .196 BABIP
Summary: Gibbons has been improving each season and jumping a level a season. High A ready, but not MLB-ready. Little risk of being taken in the MLB portion of the draft, might want to protect him in the minor league portion of the draft.
Risk %: 25%
 
RHP Miguel Gonzalez
Age: 21
Height: 6' 1"
Weight: 180 lb
Highest Level: Rookie (GCL)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Dominican Republic in 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (Rookie/GCL) : 15 G, 3 GS, 39.2 IP, 9.1 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 1.59 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 0.981 WHIP, .271 BABIP
Summary: Third time is the charm, since threepeating the GCL, Gonzalez have found himself, by improving his mechanics and control. Still very young. Little risk of being taken in the MLB portion of the draft, might want to protect him in the minor league portion of the draft.
Risk %: 15%
 
 
IF Niko Goodrum
Age: 23
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 167 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 2nd round of 2010
2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 27th in 2014
Last season (AA) : .244/.332/.392; 238 PA, 5 HR, 18 SB, 28 BB, 51 K.
Summary: Goodrum is still young, but the expectations for the former second round draft pick have been higher than his performance so far. Declining performance at 3B, where he switch from SS, but adding CF to his repertoir and seeing more (and better defensively) games at SS in 2015. Someone might pick him up as a utility player/PR, but he is not ready to perform with his bat.
Risk %: 35%
 
1B Bryan Haar
Age: 25
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 215 lb
Highest Level: A+
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 34th round of 2012
2015 Prospect Rank: NR.
Last season (A+) : .249/.317/.323; 284 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, 21 BB, 61 K.
Summary: Organizational depth at this point, and as a 25 year old in high A ball, he is more of a candidate to be cut than drafted.
Risk %: 5%
 
OF Travis Harrison
Age: 23
Height: 6' 1"
Weight: 215 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round (50th overall) of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: 14th
Last season (AA) : .240/.363/.356; 479 PA, 5 HR, 3 SB, 65 BB, 102 K.
Summary: Harrison has been taken a step up in level every year in his professional career, but also has been taking a step back in performance. Last season was his worst so far as a pro. Still more than 2 years young in AA, he is in the top prospect conversation and he might be a season or two away from a breakthrough; however, he is not major league ready at this point and I cannot see someone drafting him, but the potential is there.
Risk %: 40%
 
 
1B DJ Hicks
Age: 25
Height: 6' 5"
Weight: 245 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 17th round of 2012
2015 Prospect Rank:NR, 2014: 24th
Last season (AA) : .227/.320/.351; 259 PA, 6 HR, 1 SB, 32 BB, 66 K.
Summary: Hicks' strongest tool is his power, and he has seen a drastic decline as he has been climbing minor league levels, something that he did with regularity. Bothered with injuries this season. It is unlikely that he will be drafted, he needs another good year to be MLB-ready.
Risk %: 25%
 
LHP David Hurlbut
Age: 25
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 221 lb
Highest Level: AAA (one game)
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 28th round of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A+/AA/AAA) : 20 G, 19 GS, 119 IP, 5.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.78 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 1.333 WHIP, .311 BABIP
Summary: Hurlbut had a decent AA season, he is left-handed and a pitch to contact guy. Someone might think that converting him to a reliever might improve his numbers. As with any lefty, there are always some possibilities that someone will pull the trigger, but there are better options out there.
Risk %: 45%
 
RHP Cole Johnson
Age: 27
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 200 lb
Highest Level: AAA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 44th round of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A+/AA/AAA) : 35 G, 0 GS, 52 IP, 8.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 3.18 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.404 WHIP, .331 BABIP
Summary: Cole Johnson is MLB-ready. Heavy singer sitting at 89-92, good slider. Command of his fastball is crucial. Tale of 2 places season, better at AA than AAA. Might be due to the fact of game calling by catchers at AAA as well. Can be in a major league pen right now.
Risk %: 70%
 
RHP Zack Jones
Age: 24
Height: 6' 1"
Weight: 185 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 4th round of 2012
2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 2014: 19th
Last season (A+/AA) :45 G, 0 GS, 51.2 IP, 11.8 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, 4.53 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 1.277 WHIP, .288 BABIP
Summary: Zach Jones is a fireballer with a major league 99 mph fastball, but with iffy control due to his mechanics (which have been the source of nagging injuries,) and an average slider that sometimes is much better than average, but it is an inconsistent pitch. Much better performance at Fort Myers than at Chatanooga. Still can strike people out and non contenders with pitching coaches who would love a challenge might wink at that heater.
Risk %: 75%
 
RHP Felix Jorge
Age: 21
Height: 6' 2"
Weight: 170 lb
Highest Level: A
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Dominican Republic
2015 Prospect Rank: 29th
Last season (A) :23 G, 22 GS, 142 IP, 7.2 K/9, 2 BB/9, 2.79 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 1.056 WHIP, .267 BABIP
Summary: Jorge has 4 pitches that can be plus at different times. He just has not put it all together. Second time at Cedar Rapids (still at an age younger than league average) was better. Fastball used to live around 95 earlier in his career, but endurance had been an issue. This kid has a lot of potential. He is not major league ready by any means, but the Twins are betting nobody pulls a Santana on them. However someone might.
Risk %: 50%
 
OF Marcus Knecht
Age: 25
Height: 6' 1"
Weight: 200 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Signed as a Minor League free agent in 2015
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (A+/AA) : .221/.320/.310; 465 PA, 2 HR, 15 SB, 51 BB, 103 K.
Summary: The definition of organization depth. Not sure why the Twins re-signed him. Cannot see a team taking a chance for any reason
Risk %: 2%
 
LHP Brett Lee
Age: 25
Height: 6' 4"
Weight: 206 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 10th round of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (A+/A) :22 G, 22 GS, 134 IP, 4.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 3.16 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 1.239 WHIP, .277 BABIP
Summary: Even though Lee posted before average numbers, his stuff is pretty average, other than pitching to contact, which is his bread and butter. Very low strikeout and walk numbers, so his success (or lack of) would have to depend on his ability to induce ground balls. And he is not ready for the majors at this point. But he is a living and breathing lefty. On the other hand, there are better option for those as well...
Risk %: 30%
 
RHP Kuo-Hua Lo
Age: 22
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 195lb
Highest Level: Rookie (Elizabethton)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Taiwan
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (Rookie) :19 G, 0 GS, 31.1 IP, 12.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.44 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 0.734 WHIP, .213 BABIP
Summary: Lo repeated the Appalachian League in his fourth season with the Twins and had remarkable success closing games. However he is 2 years older than the league average player and has faced players who grabbed a wooden bad for the first time in their lives. Might get himself into prospect conversations, but he is not close to being Major League ready
Risk %: 10%
 
C Joe Maloney
Age: 25
Height: 6' 2"
Weight: 190 lb
Highest Level: A+ (in 2013)
Acquired: Signed as an Independent League free agent this off-season
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (IL) : .337/.432/.559; 433 PA, 14 HR, 18 SB, 57 BB, 106 K.
Summary: Intriguing IL numbers last season, so the Twins took a chance on him. More about him here. Not the kind of player you draft on Rule 5 draft.
Risk %: 5%
 
IF Aderlin Mejia
Age: 23
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 170lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent for the Dominican Republic
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (A+/AA) : .231/.313/.285; 305 PA, 1 HR, 7 SB, 34 BB, 37 K.
Summary: Had some flashes in the past, but last season was his fourth season that he spent at least some part at Fort Myers. He is a fan favorite there, but a utility player. More of a release than a draft candidate.
Risk %: 5%
 
SS Heiker Meneses
Age: 24
Height: 5'9"
Weight: 200lb
Highest Level: AAA (2014)
Acquired: Signed as a Minor League Free Agent in 2015
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (AA) : .259/.317/.300; 386 PA, 0 HR, 15 SB, 24 BB, 72 K.
Summary: Re-signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent again this off-season. More about him here. Definitely there is some intrigue and potential, but not enough to get drafted
Risk %: 25%
 
2B Levi Michael
Age: 24
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 180lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round (30th overall) of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: 22nd
Last season (AA) : .267/.369/.434; 264 PA, 5 HR, 18 SB, 31 BB, 53 K.
Summary: Never played below high A, was over-slotted and over-assigned when drafted. But he got better each and every season. Better than average defender after his move to second base, his challenge has been staying healthy. However second basement with .804 OPS in AA and excellent judgement of the strike zone do not grow on trees. The exact kind of player a team (especially in the National League) would not mind spending its last roster spot over.
Risk %: 75%
 
RHP Alex Muren
Age: 24
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 200 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 12th round of 2012
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (A+/AA) :44 G, 0 GS, 71.1 IP, 6.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 3.53 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 1.206 WHIP, .273 BABIP
Summary: Muren is organizational depth at this point. He does have his moments but are not enough for someone to draft him.
Risk %: 10%
 
C Carlos Paulino
Age: 26
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 175lb
Highest Level: AAA
Acquired: Singed as a Minor League Free Agent in 2015
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (AA/AAA) : .262/.328/.337; 193 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, 17 BB, 15 K.
Summary: Re-signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent again this off-season. Despite being the Twins' de facto number 3 in depth catcher as of today, he does not fit the profile of someone who will be taken in the Rule 5 draft.
Risk %: 25%
 
RHP Greg Peavey
Age: 27
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 185lb
Highest Level: AAA
Acquired: Selected from the Mets in the Minor League portion of the Rule 5 draft in 2014
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (AAA/AA) :27 G, 27 GS, 147 IP, 5.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 5.02 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 1.354 WHIP, .287 BABIP
Summary: Peavey is a pitch to contact control artist who can be really good on a good day and really bad on a bad day. And he had more bad days than good last season. Hard to see him drafted, but it is not impossible. Not unlike the starters that the Twins have drafted in the rule 5 draft this decade
Risk %: 40%
 
C Michael Quesada
Age: 25
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 205lb
Highest Level: A+
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 24th Round of 2010
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (A+) : .151/.239/.198; 240 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, 21 BB, 73 K.
Summary: Quesada had an abysmal season at Fort Myers at an age 2.5 years older than League average. Has been digressing every season; add a suspension because of drug use and it is a wonder he still is in the Twins' organization. Will not get drafted, unless something freezes over.
Risk %: 1%
 
RHP Dereck Rodriguez
Age: 24
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 180lb
Highest Level: A+
Acquired: Drafted in the 6th round of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (Rk/A/A+) :15 G, 14 GS, 75.1 IP, 7.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.35 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 1.235 WHIP, .306 BABIP
Summary: The son of Pudge was drafted as an outfielder and now is being converted into a pitcher. Played mostly Rookie ball at Elizabethton with 2 games with the Miracle and 1 with the Lookouts. He is a project; a project that looks good, but not MLB-ready by any means.
Risk %: 20%
 
C Jairo Rodriguez
Age: 27
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 180 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Signed by the Twins as an International Amateur Free Agent from Venezuela
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (AA) : .221/.284/.244; 96 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, 8 BB, 15 K.
Summary: Has been in the Twins' organization for 9 season and was re-signed again this off-season, for his 10th, after a pretty bad performance at Chattanooga. They like him for some reason, but his is a performance that only a parent team would like...
Risk %: 2%
 
1B Reynaldo Rodriguez
 
 
 
Age: 29
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 200 lb
Highest Level: AAA
Acquired: Signed by the Twins as a minor league Free Agent in 2013
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (AAA) : .255/.307/.446; 551 PA, 16 HR, 13 SB, 39 BB, 82 K.
Summary: Re-signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent again this off-season. A little older than the traditional rule 5 picks, his skills translate well in the majors and could be picked by a team in need of RH bats at the 1B/OF/PH/DH positions.
Risk %: 55%
 
LHP Dan Runzler
Age: 30
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 210lb
Highest Level: MLB (2012)
Acquired: Signed this off-season as a minor league free agent
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (AAA) :39 G, 0 GS, 37.2 IP, 9.6 K/9, 6.7 BB/9, 5.26 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 2.018 WHIP, .285 BABIP
Summary: You can read a lot about Runzler here. A very intriguing situation and the only thing that makes me think that he might not get selected is that if a team wanted to give him a 40-man position, they could have done it. However, things change in a month.
Risk %: 45%
 
 
RHP Tim Shibuya
Age: 26
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 190lb
Highest Level: AAA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 23rd round of the 2011 draft
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (A+/AA/AAA) :33 G, 4 GS, 63 IP, 5.3 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 3.57 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 1.222 WHIP, .295 BABIP
Summary: Shibuya, despite his impeccable control is organizational depth at this point. Hard to see any takers
Risk %: 25%
 
RHP Matt Summers
Age: 26
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 205lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 4th round of the 2011 draft
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (A+/AA) :26 G, 1 GS, 44.2 IP, 6.0 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 3.63 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 1.187 WHIP, .266 BABIP
Summary: Pretty much the same that was said about Shibuya. However, Summers was a higher round pick in the same draft and did not go that far.
Risk %: 25%
 
 
RHP Todd Van Steensel
Age: 24
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 190 lb
Highest Level: A+
Acquired: Signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent in 2014 (previously pitching for them for 2011)
2015 Prospect Rank: 34
Last season (A+/AA) :46 G, 0 GS, 66 IP, 11 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 2.32 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 1.288 WHIP, .310 BABIP
Summary: In his first full season as one of the Miracle closers, Van Steensel put good enough numbers to move up to the Chattanooga pen next season, but not good enough to be drafted. He in an interesting prospect who might be a couple seasons away if his fastball plays against better competition, but he is not there yet.
Risk %: 25%
 
UT Logan Wade
Age: 24
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 190 lb
Highest Level: A+
Acquired: Signed by the Twins as an International Free agent from Australia
2015 Prospect Rank:NR; 2014: 37
Last season (A+) : .258/.296/.374; 366 PA, 3 HR, 3 SB, 20 BB, 63 K.
Summary: Wade is an average utility player at Fort Myers who can play all over the field. Not sure that he is ready for AA, much yet for the majors.
Risk %: 5%
 
 
LHP Jason Wheeler
Age: 25
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 255 lb
Highest Level: AAA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 8th round of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (AA/AAA) :25 G, 25 GS, 137.2 IP, 5.9 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 5.43 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 1.467 WHIP, .323 BABIP
Summary: Typical Twins' minor league middle of the rotation starter. Pitch to contact pitcher with above average control, hoping to induce ground balls that the defense behind him will turn to outs. Much better success at AA than at AAA last season. He is a lefty. Maybe someone things that with a couple few pitches and a few ticks higher in his FB might turn into an acceptable reliever in the majors. Maybe.
Risk %: 55%
 
UT Stephen Wickens
Age: 26
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 170 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 33rd round of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (A+) : .254/.352/.333; 310 PA, 1 HR, 16 SB, 36 BB, 45 K.
Summary: Steady utility player who has played every position except CF and C. Has value on resting starters for a good minor league team and not hurt the team with the bat or the glove, but that's about it. I do not see him getting selected.
Risk %: 15%
 
LHP Corey Williams
Age: 25
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 205 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 3th round of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A+/AA) :29 G, 0 GS, 33.12 IP, 7 K/9, 4 BB/9, 2.43 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 1.110 WHIP, .247 BABIP
Summary: Williams is a lefty in the Twins' system with closer staff, but command issues. He was on a quick trajectory to the majors that got derailed with a Tommy John surgery and the loss of all 2014. He returned in 2015 and put good but not great numbers. The Twins know his medicals better than any team, but Williams is the type of guy you add to a 40-man roster because if healthy he can help a team down the stretch better than the likes of Aaron Thompson and Ryan O'Rourke. Also this is exactly the kind of guy who might get drafted for the same reason.
Risk %: 75%
 
RHP Alex Wimmers.
Age: 27
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 212 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round of 2010 (21st overall)
2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 2014: 40
Last season (AA) :30 G, 18 GS, 115.1 IP, 7.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 4.53 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 1.387 WHIP, .325 BABIP
Summary: Wimmers is the poster boy of the players who get drafted in the Rule 5 draft. Another season removed by Tommy John surgery he put respectable raw numbers in AA and pitched the most innings in his career. A control artist with ground ball tendencies and a strikeout breaking ball, might need a change of scenery. The potential is there and now that he has proven that he can handle the work load, he will find a taker. Surprised if the former 1st Round selection is with the Twins at the conclusion of the Winter Meetings.
Risk %: 85%

Once again, the Twins and Red Sox took to the diamonds for Instructional League ball. Yet there was a new giddiness in the air as the League is done as of Tuesday and a good deal of these players will head home for the winter. Everyone already has their plans set and everyone has something different in store. Still for now there was baseball to be played and talent to be evaluated. This weekend the Twins front office were visible in the stands with GM Terry Ryan, Special Assistant Bill Smith, Scouting Director Deron Johnson, and head of Player Personnel Mike Radcliffe. The Red Sox top brass was also in the stands with GM Dave Dombrowski being the most noticeable.
 
 

 
On the rubber for the Twins Friday was Williams Ramirez who was facing one of the Red Sox's top pitching prospects in Michael Kopech. The two matched each other pitch for pitch in the first two innings before Ramirez gave up a couple hits and a run. For the duration of Instructs, the Twins have either let their starter go two or four innings dependent upon their seasonal workload. Ramirez went 4 IP and was relieved by Logan Lombana (1 IP), John Curtiss (2 IP), and Yorman Landa (1 IP). Landa once again was 93-95 mph spotting his fastball on both corners while breaking off a couple decent sliders.
 

 
So I know this might sound like a broken record but Nick "Flash Jr" Gordon is really good not only in the field but at the plate. In the field, he showed slick fielding going far into the hole jumping and showing off a strong accurate throw to first. Later in the game, he charged a soft grounder barehanded and threw out the runner while never getting his feet under him. At the plate, he hit the ball hard and up the middle with a compact stroke that is designed to take advantage of his speed. Additionally, he worked on his bunting skills. This wasn't a sacrifice style bunt yet rather a run and tap ala Otis Nixon/Brett Butler style. After the game, I asked Gordon about his bunt earlier, he said that's part of his game that he really wants to improve and feels it adds another part to his game. He plans on working on it this offseason with his brother who's one of the better bunters in baseball today and has been coached by some of the best. Another hitter, I'm continually pleased to see is Lamonte Wade with his beautiful lefthanded swing and advanced approach at the plate. He really has some good at bats.
 
Apparently, Gonsalves last outing was Thursday where he went two innings and he said he felt good but was excited to shut it down for the rest of the year. As he said this was the most he's ever threw and by the end of the regular season he was tiring, throwing in Instructs just added even more fuel to the fire. Also throwing on Thursday was Fernando Romero who went two innings hitting 93-95 mph.
 
 

 
In side notes, 2015 draftee and reliever Rich Condeelis was sidelined with several stitches in his chin as he was hit by a ball thrown by fellow pitcher Zach Tillery. Unlike most of the pitchers in camp, Condeelis is going to continue to throw for another month or so to stretch out his arm. Unbeknowst to me, Rich has only been pitching for the last 6-7 months as he spent much of his career as a first baseman. The organization is supportive of his sidearm delivery and will let him continue to throw in that fashion. As it turns out, the player I've been sitting and talking Spanglish with over the entire summer was Fernando Romero (he would never give his name other than "Paul"), he saved me a front row seat next to Deron Johnson and Mike Radcliff so that was nice of him. He absolutely hates his picture taken and thought I was a scout for the beginning of the GCL season.
 
 

 
On Saturday, lefty Sam Clay started for the Twins going 4 innings, his fastball was continually 89-91 mph maxing out at 92 mph with a slider around 76-78 mph. I was sitting next to two AL East Scouts (one amateur, one pro), and they were comparing notes on Clay. Last year, Clay's fastball was continually 92-95 mph when he first joined the Twins. They jokingly said that's the Twin's for you, I asked them what they meant and they said happens alot with Twins pitchers. Clay was relieved by an inning of Wilfredy Liranzo and Brandon Poulson for an inning before the game was called due to rain. Poulson threw one slider, the rest were fastballs at 90-95 mph averaging 93.
 

 
In the box, Tyree Davis got some of his first game action of the 2015 season. Tyree has really bulked up, adding 20 lbs of muscle over the year as he's been regulated to much of the weight room due to his elbow injury. He luckily avoided surgery and is said that it feels 100%. He wants to continue his season in the Caribbean but is unsure if the team will give the okay. Also getting some at bats was former first rounder Levi Michael, who looked very rusty out on the field. Levi's a great guy and I'll always root for him but his baseball career is looking bleek.
 
 

Overall, it was a great summer of the GCL and Instructs, the Twins wrap up their season hosting the Orioles on Monday and visiting the Red Sox on Tuesday. Til February!! In the meantime, I'll be getting my baseball fix and a foothold on the 2016 draft with all the showcases in South Florida.

Introduction
 
I have spoken with John Bonnes about writing this article a few times and in one respect, I wish I had written it earlier, when public opinion towards Joe Mauer was more favorable than it is presently. Some of the hot takes regarding Mauer’s (perceived) lack of toughness have been poorly reasoned and while Mauer has not provided good value relative to his salary in recent seasons, given the way the collective bargaining agreement shapes Major League Baseball’s labor market, few veterans talented and skilled enough to command long-term deals upon reaching free agency in the modern game do. In other respects, hindsight may have strengthened some of the more speculative claims put forth below.
 
The argument I will advance is that the Twins would have been better off passing on Mauer to draft Mark Prior first overall in the 2001 amateur draft. This argument is built upon two main ideas: first, that winning the World Series should be the ultimate goal for a Major League franchise and second, that drafting Prior over Mauer would have maximized the Twins chances of winning a third World Series over the period of time from the 2001 amateur draft to the present day.
 
With regards to the first idea, it is said that flags fly forever and thus, it is in a club’s best interest to maximize its odds of winning a World Series over any given period of time by mortgaging either the present or future if needed, dependent upon how close a club is to championship caliber at any given time. As former Twins general manager Andy MacPhail—who presided over the club when it won its two championships in 1987 and 1991—has been credited with saying, there is no point in chasing third place. This is presented as a given for the purpose of this article.
 
What then follows is an attempt to support the second idea. To spell things out plainly before proceeding any further, the argument being made is not that Prior was, is or will be regarded as a better player than Mauer. Only that drafting Prior over Mauer would have improved Minnesota’s chances of winning a third World Series between the years of 2001 to 2014.
 
2002 and 2003
 
Perhaps the lone irrefutable point in favor of drafting Prior over Mauer improving the Twins’ chances of winning a third World Series is the impact it would have had on the 2002 and 2003 seasons. Prior entered the 2001 amateur draft during his junior season at the University of Southern California. He was considered the most Major League-ready prospect in his draft class and won the Golden Spikes Award—college baseball’s equivalent of the Heisman Trophy. Conversely, Mauer—the top-rated high school prospect in the country—took longer to reach the Major Leagues. As Prior debuted during the 2002 season and Mauer did not play in his first Major League game until 2004, it cannot be reasonably argued that drafting Prior would not have made the Twins a better team in 2002 and 2003.
 
Fairness requires mention that Prior cost the Cubs over twice as much to sign as Mauer did the Twins—$10.5 versus $5.15 million—but when placed in context with the total amount of money the Twins have committed to Mauer since the 2001 draft—$126.025 million with another $92 million owed over the next four seasons—that initial $5.35 million difference is rather negligible. Also, Prior would have occupied a roster spot, so that $5.35 can be weighed against the salary of any player Prior would have kept off the Twins’ payroll in the aforementioned two seasons.
 
In 2002 the Twins began the season with Rick Reed, Kyle Lohse, Eric Milton, Brad Radke and Joe Mays in their rotation with Santana joining from the bullpen later, so Prior would likely not have had a subtractive effect on the Twins payroll if debuting midseason. However, it is doubtful the Twins would have signed Kenny Rodgers for $2 million before the start of the 2003 campaign with Prior already on their Major League roster, which reduces Prior’s theoretical net cost a small amount.
 
What is particularly important about the 2002 and 2003 seasons is that Minnesota reached the playoffs in both without either Mauer or Prior on their roster, so the addition of Prior would have further strengthened the Twins’ chances those two years. Using ERA+ as a rough guide to place Prior’s performance in context as ERA+ attempts to control for league and ballpark, here is how Prior compared to the rest of the Twins’ rotation those two seasons.
 
 
 

http://i.imgur.com/WBLb56j.png

 
While each made only a half-season’s worth of starts, K/9, FIP and ERA+ make it clear that Santana and Prior were on a different level than the rest of the Twins’ rotation in 2002.
 

http://i.imgur.com/KCgpCgy.png


Note: Eric Milton’s injury-shortened season is presented at the bottom of the table due to a 17 inning sample size.


 
In 2003 Prior elevated himself above even Santana, achieving a lower ERA and FIP along with a higher K/9 and ERA+ despite pitching more innings without the benefit of bullpen work positively skewing his rate statistics. Consulting Fangraphs, Prior was second only to Pedro Martinez among Major League starters with 7.5 wins above replacement. Kenny Rodgers, who presumably would not have been signed had the Twins drafted Prior, was worth 3.1 wins above replacement.
 
Moving beyond regular season statistics, there is research that suggests adding a second pitcher who struck out more than a batter per inning would have improved the Twins’ chances of winning in the postseason, specifically. Baseball Prospectus found (and published in its 2006 book Baseball Between the Numbers) that closer performance, strike out rate and defensive efficiency were three key measures that correlated with success in the playoffs.
 
This is fairly intuitive with respect to starting pitchers; playoff teams in any given season typically have above average lineups as compared to the Major Leagues as a whole, so the ability to miss bats has value in that it prevents batters from above average lineups from putting the ball in play. In 2002 and 2003, both Prior and Santana had K/9 rates of 9.6 or higher while no other Twins starting pitcher managed better than a 6.4 in either season.
 
Buying a cautioned, qualified ticket to small sample-size theater, here is a quick look at how the aforementioned starters performed in the postseason for the relevant pair of years.
 

http://i.imgur.com/BIHqO6Q.png


Note: Santana was squandered by manager Ron Gardenhire during the 2002 postseason and pitched out of the bullpen, hence only two starts in eight appearances.


 
Once again Prior’s performance compares favorably with the Twins’ starters. Prior’s statistics above come only from the 2013 season. Had Alex Gonzalez been able to
— —Prior would have likely recorded a third win and gotten at least one additional start. 
The Twins posted a combined 5-9 postseason record in 2002 and 2003 and won their only postseason series of the Gardenhire era—the 2002 Divisional Series against Oakland. In the subsequent years since, with Mauer on its Major League roster, Minnesota has won just one of 13 games in the postseason. Thus, the strongest and least speculative point in favor of drafting Prior over Mauer is that it would have strengthened the Twins’ chances of winning a World Series over the two-year period in which they won more postseason games than in the following 11 years combined.
 
The Increasingly Speculative 2004 and Beyond
 
It is possible that had he been drafted by the Twins, Mark Prior may have avoided the injury woes that derailed his career, as the Twins were relatively conservative with pitch counts under Ron Gardenhire’s stewardship.
 
Conversely, Dusty Baker—Prior’s manager in Chicago—earned a reputation for working his starting pitchers quite heavily. In the 2003 season the Cubs led baseball with 29 instances where their starting pitcher threw 120 pitches or more, of which Prior accounted for seven in what was his first full year in the Major Leagues. It is impossible to accurately quantify the effect those high pitch counts had. However fairly or unfairly, Baker is commonly assigned some blame for the injuries sustained by charges like Jason Schmidt, Mark Prior and Kerry Wood among others. It bears mention that Baker eased the workload of his starting pitchers as his career went on and fell below the league average for the number of 120-plus pitch starts per season during his tenure with the Cincinnati Reds.
 
It is within the realm of possibility, had his workload been better managed by a more conservative brass in Minnesota, that Prior would have had a longer and more productive career, helping the Twins in an alternate reality in 2004 and beyond.
 
Another highly speculative argument in favor of drafting Prior would be that the Twins would have either cut bait with him after his injury woes, or been more open to trading a healthy Prior as opposed to paying market rate on a contract extension for a front line starting pitcher nearing free agency—as the club did when it sent Johan Santana to the Mets in his final season before hitting the open market.
 
The Twins were painted into a corner by the timing of the opening of Target Field and Joe Mauer’s impending free agency. The club wanted tax payers to pick up a majority of the tab for their new $545 million ballpark, and argued that the revenue that would be generated by such a facility was essential to remain competitive in baseball’s modern environment. Had they then turned around and dealt the face of their franchise, recent American League Most Valuable Player and—perhaps most important—native son Joe Mauer to avoid signing him to a large contract extension, the public relations hit would have been colossal. Perhaps it would have been easier to flip Prior for prospects—if he was still performing and on the roster—as was the case with Santana. Had that happened, the Twins would have been able to differently allocate $23 million worth of payroll per season from 2011-to-2018.
 
Where the Twins would have suffered in this alternate reality is in missing out on fleecing Giants general manager Brian Sabean. Had the Twins drafted Prior, they would not have needed to deal A.J. Pierzynski to make room for Mauer in the starting lineup. In turn, they would not have acquired Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano or Joe Nathan prior to the start of the 2004 season. Bonser was no great shakes and later begat minor leaguer Chirs Province who failed to reach the Major Leagues. Lirano pitched brilliantly at times and later begat Eduardo Escobar and Pedro Hernandez. Joe Nathan was the best closer in baseball in the aughts not named Mariano Rivera, became the Twins’ all-time saves leader and left as a free agent after eight years.
 
The above almost certainly represents more value than retaining Pierzynski would have provided. Thus—in addition to not having Mauer around for his spectacular peak years—the Twins would have almost surely been worse off from 2004 to 2009. Having conceded that, the Twins did not win a single playoff series during that time, so it would not have reduced the number of championships the club won.
 
Conclusion
 
Based on the benefit of hindsight unavailable to anyone during the Twins’ preparation for the 2001 amateur draft and large amounts of speculation, I hope I have at least swayed a few people into entertaining the idea that it would have been in the Twins’ best interests to draft Mark Prior first overall in 2001, despite the disappointing way his career stalled and ended. In essence—knowing everything we do now—it would have been better for the Twins to bet all their chips on 2002 and 2003. To roll the dice that nobody in baseball would have wanted to face the 2002 and 2003 versions of Johan Santana and Mark Prior a combined four times in a seven-game playoff series. That either the 2002 or 2003 Twins could have been the American League version of the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks.
 
Shameless Plug
 
If you enjoyed this article, you can check out more of my work over at MinnCentric’s new soccer site Northern Pitch as well as follow us on Twitter and Facebook. You can find a list of our impressive staff of writers here. We hope you will join us for coverage of what will be an exciting year for soccer in Minnesota as Minnesota United have made a number of notable signings in the offseason and look to be the preseason favorites to win the North American Soccer League, and Minneapolis has been named as one of the two finalists for the next Major League Soccer expansion franchise.

I originally wrote the following analysis of Terry Ryan as GM of the Minnesota Twins for The National Pastime, 2012: Short but Wondrous Summers: Baseball in the North Star State. I was the editor of the publication—one I heartily recommend by the way for those interested in the history of baseball in Minnesota--and pulled the essay just prior to publication when the publisher informed me that we had gone over our allotted page count. It is great to have this outlet to finally run the article. Due to its length and a natural break point about half way through, I am breaking it into two halves.
 
 
Given this disparity among the resources and opportunities available to the various front offices, is there a way to objectively evaluate some of the more important facets of their performance beyond wins and losses? In fact, there are some aspects of the general manager’s role that can be quantified. Using the Retrosheet transactions database I evaluated all the moves made by the Twins after Ryan's hiring in September 1994 through the end of the 2007 season. Obviously, using this type of analysis to assess Ryan assigns the ultimate responsibility for all transactions--rightly or wrongly--to the general manager.
 
In this short investigation I examine the value of players lost via free agency, outright release, the expansion draft, waivers and trades, and players acquired via amateur free agency (i.e. players not eligible for the draft), free agency, waivers and trades. Unfortunately this is not quite as straightforward as it might seem: for example, players who become free agents and are subsequently re-signed; in the database these players are shown as both lost via free agency and gained through free agency. The net effect is zero, but it increases the total volume of talent coming and going. Another example is players who come and go before they become established major leaguers. As an illustration of this issue, Casey Blake was claimed on waivers, lost on waivers, reclaimed on waivers, and subsequently released before he achieved any significant major league playing time. While it makes sense to account for them this way--each transaction needs to be evaluated on its own merits and the Twins free agents were certainly available to any team--these multiple moves can make the talent velocity appear greater than it might otherwise be.
 
For each player involved in a transaction, I calculated the WAR he would earn over the balance of his career. For players still active, WAR is calculated through the 2008 season, the last season for which I have been able to generate the data set (obviously many of these players will significantly increase their career totals). [i would like to update this in the future]
 
So, what does Ryan's scorecard look like? The table below summarizes the cumulative WAR surrendered and gained in all the Twins transactions from the fall of 1994 through his retirement in 2007.
 
WAR From Twins Transactions Under Ryan’s Tenure
[table]


Transaction Type


From Min


To Min




Players Becoming Free Agents


42






Players Released


54






Players Lost in Expansion Draft


9






Amateur Free Agent Signing




10




Free Agent Signing




80




Waivers




36




Trades


102


164




Total


218


290


[/table]
 
Despite working under relatively tight financial constraints for most of his tenure, Ryan lost surprisingly little talent to free agency. Only Kenny Rogers, already 38 years old when he left after one season with the Twins, produced more than five wins above replacement after leaving the Twins as a free agent.
 
Surprisingly, Ryan's two most significant personnel blunders came from releasing two players with significant major league ability, and both came after the 2002 season. In October he released Casey Blake, who would go on to become a valuable contributor with the Indians. More significantly, in December Ryan compounded his error by releasing David Ortiz, who became a perennial MVP contender. Both could have played important roles on the competitive Twins teams from 2003 through 2006. In addition, the loss of Damian Miller to the Diamondbacks in the expansion draft proved surprisingly costly. Miller went on to several seasons as a quality major league catcher.
 
Given his financial constraints, it is not surprising that Ryan never signed any high-priced free agents. But he often tried to augment his team with bargain priced players with some upside. As mentioned above, Ryan had some success in the mid-1990s. Later he received a quality season from Kenny Rogers before losing him. Ryan also landed several useful role players, such as Mike Redmond, at a reasonable price. Some of his most notable free agent moves involved re-signing his own veterans, such as Radke and Shannon Stewart, on a short-term basis.
 
For most of Ryan’s tenure, the Twins did not develop many players from Latin America. In the mid-1990s the Twins landed two players who would become useful major leaguers--Luis Rivas and Juan Rincon--but added none of consequence over the next decade. Ryan's staff did smartly pluck Bobby Kielty from the U.S. amateur ranks when he was available outside of the draft.
 
Ryan may have distinguished himself most clearly in his ability to make quality trades. His worst trade, in terms of value differential, was the swap of Todd Walker to Colorado for little in return. As an extenuating circumstance with this trade, however, the Twins also received cash. Ryan’s regime can be credited with several outstanding deals. Most have been mentioned above: the trades of A.J. Pierzynski and Chuck Knoblauch each added two valuable players. Trading Dave Hollins for David Ortiz was also a great move, unfortunately later vitiated by the latter's release.
 
To get a better sense of the Twins drafting success under Ryan, I calculated the total career WAR from all players picked in each year’s draft from 1987, when Ryan first joined the Twins as scouting director, through 2001, when the Twins selected Joe Mauer with the first overall pick. Draft classes more recent than 2001 have not had a chance to mature sufficiently through 2008 for a valid evaluation. One needs to be cautious, however, when evaluating drafts. How many early picks a team has, how high in the first round they pick and how much money the team is willing to spend on signing bonuses all affect a team’s draft success without reflecting on the acumen of the team’s front office.
 
Twins WAR from the Draft (1987 - 1994)
[table]



1987


1988


1989


1990


1991


1992


1993


1994




Twins


8.1


-2.3


94.6


37.5


62.9


-0.1


18.4


45.0




Lg Avg


29.5


27.0


30.8


22.8


23.8


16.5


17.7


12.5




Diff


-21.4


-29.3


63.8


14.7


39.1


-16.6


0.7


32.5


[/table]
 
Twins WAR from the Draft (1995-2001)
[table]



1995


1996


1997


1998


1999


2000


2001




Twins


15.3


8.2


12.7


2.5


12.2


-1.3


26.8




Lg Avg


17.7


14.9


11.8


15.0


14.5


9.6


8.2




Diff


-2.4


-6.7


0.9


-12.5


-2.3


-10.9


18.6


[/table]
 
Caveats aside, Ryan’s record with the draft was mixed. On the positive side, while scouting director Ryan oversaw two stellar draft classes: in 1989 he landed Chuck Knoblauch, Scott Erickson, and Denny Neagle; two years later Ryan brought in Brad Radke and Matt Lawton. During his time as general manager the Twins selected several players that went on to become stars. Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer, all drafted in the first three rounds between 1997 and 2001, anchored the Twin’s teams of the mid-2000s. Ryan and his staff also generally recognized their better players and studiously avoided including those who would have a solid major league future in trades. On the other hand, the Twins had a top-6 or higher overall pick in 1998, 1999 and 2000 and came away with little to show for it.
 
But if Terry Ryan and his staff had at least a couple of years of professional baseball with which to evaluate a player, they were formidable. In trades, particularly after his first year on the job, the prospects Ryan acquired developed into capable major leaguers more often than could be reasonably expected. His veteran free agent signings also generally turned out well, and he rarely lost key players to free agency. Two of his more significant misses had extenuating circumstances: the trade of Todd Walker netted the team cash, and David Ortiz was arbitration eligible, 27 years old and had yet to play a full major league season, mainly due to injuries.
 
A general manager's job, of course, entails more than talent acquisition, and sometimes a team is in a position where the key decisions involve sorting out the talent (including possibly surrendering more talent than one receives) to alleviate an abundance at one position and solve a dearth at another. But the luxury of rearranging one's talent first requires building a solid talent base. Ryan consistently surrendered less talent than he received as he built a well-balanced team that captured four division championships between 2002 and 2006.
 
After four seasons of retirement, Ryan returned as general manager, hired to once again retool the Twins after a 99-loss season in 2011. “I don’t know if it will be for one year or 10 years,” Ryan said. “I’m going to see how it goes and see exactly the direction of success and workload and all the things that about 4 1/2 years ago we talked about over at the Dome.” Ryan also identified some of the issues the organization needed to address, including a large number of missed games due to injuries, placing the onus to fix the problems squarely on his shoulders. “Players can only take advice. Players take the advice you give them,” Ryan said. “I would never put it on the players. It’s our responsibility to take control of that and we will.”
 
To read more about the history of baseball operations and the GM, please buy our new book In Pursuit of Pennants–Baseball Operations from Deadball to Moneyball via the publisher or at your favorite on-line store.

I hope you'll allow me this non-baseball topic on my blog today. We had our last "first-day-of-school" picture today with both kids, as The Chatty Chatty Princess™ starts her senior year and The Boy™ has his first day in high school. It brought to mind TCCP's first day of kindergarten, a day I missed, but documented twelve years ago on my new "TwinsGeek.com" blog with this story:
 
 

------------------------------


 
He didn't feel the gush that everyone said he would feel the first time he held her in his arms. He frowned. "I've never been especially good about feeling emotions."
 
There was excitement to be sure. And a feeling of amazement. But mostly the infant seemed like an infinite puzzle to be pieced together. They had a job to do. She needed to eat. Sleep. Learn she was a part of a family.
 
She would cry from the moment he came home from work, and he would walk around the house with her, showing her the curtains, the flowers, the Kirby Pucket face-on-a-stick; anything to distract her from her exhaustion or hunger for five minutes and then five minutes more. "She was happy before you came home, honest."
 
 

---------------------------------


 
Shortly after the colic passed, they watched her roll onto her back. Six eyes grew wide and looked at each other. She immediately began working on rolling the other way. And then crawling. And walking. And talking. Definitely talking.
 
And with each victory, came more self-assuredness.
 
Now they had a new job to do. Limits needed to be set and erased. Challenges needed to made and met. Illusions needed to be poked. Usually, the toughest part of the job was knowing when to hold a hand and when to turn away. When to watch out for her without watching her.
 
It was one of these times that he realized he felt the gush. He hadn't loved her at the hospital. He had fallen in love with her at home. And that was infinitely better.
 
 

---------------------------------


 
Yesterday, his wife held her hand until she delivered her to her first kindergarten class - and then she turned away, and walked home.
 
He hadn't gone. He had gone to work, like he did everyday. It was no big deal. It certainly wasn't for his daughter. Just new friends to play with. A new adult to charm. New toys, and art projects and songs to sing. Not so very different than another activity hour at the community rec center.
 
But as he drove to work, he realized he knew better.
 
It was not so long ago. He remembers his kindergarten and Mrs. Manfred. First grade and Miss Oeschlager. His hurry to clear the next hurdle, face the next challenge, race to adulthood.
 
He sees it in her. She can't grow up fast enough. The blessed quandary about when to hold a hand or turn away will be less frequent now. And he wasn't there this morning because it WAS a big deal.
 
So on I-94, he found himself struggling to wipe underneath his glasses, as too few memories triggered too many emotions for his eyes to hold. There was sadness. And pride. And the gush. But mostly there was life's intense taste when one is lucky enough to get a full dose.
 
And he sighed. "I've never been especially good about feeling emotions."