NoCryingInBaseball

With the announcement that Nelson Cruz suffered a wrist injury yesterday, my immediate thought was who would replace him in the lineup and on the roster if he had to go on the injured list. It would appear to me that the answer is the much-discussed Miguel Sanó, who is on his third and last stop in his rehab program.
 
Much has been written about Sanó. I wish to confine this discussion to the ballplayer between the lines. The other stuff has been beaten to death IMHO. What will the Twins get when a healthy Sanó is on the active roster?
 
Sanó came up to the big leagues with much hype in 2015. He was going to be the power hitter the Twins hadn't had since Harmon Killebrew. Another comparison, because of size, was Frank Thomas. Sanó's rookie year was excellent. Despite being called up only at midseason, he was a contender for Rookie-of-the-Year. His traditional state line--.269 BA, 18 homers, 52 RBI was very good. Double the homers and RBIs for a full season, and there is a perennial All-Star, future Hall of Famer. Plus, he was only 22 years of age. A deeper look at his rookie stats was probably even more encouraging, while Miguel struck out over 100 times (in a half season), he also walked more than 50 times, giving him a solid OBP of .385. His OPS was a stellar .916 which yielded an OPS+ of 149. After a minor injury, Miguel only played 11 games in the field, so we couldn't be sure about his defense. For his superior half-season of work, Miguel Sanó was voted the Twins' Player of the Year.
 
2016 started with Sanó installed as the new right fielder. He was never competent or comfortable there and it seemed to affect his hitting. After a month and a half of futility in right field, Miguel moved back to third to demonstrate a rocket arm, but less-than-soft hands. His metrics at third came in below average, but at least he could hit. Well, the hitting didn't go as well either. Sanó ended up playing in 116 game, having an OPS of .781 with 19 homers and 51 RBI as the Twins flailed and failed and lost over 100 games. Sanó missed over 30 games due to injuries. Again, a deeper look into Sanó's numbers is a mixed bag. In 160 additional plate appearances, Sanó only hit one more homer than 2015, his walk rate plummeted while his strikeout rate stayed basically steady. The batting average ended at .236 and his OBP fell to.319.
 
Sanó was a deserved All-Star in 2017. He came to camp as the third baseman, healthy and came out of the gate on fire. His first-half stats were outstanding--.276, 21 homers, 62 RBI and his defense at third was satisfactory. The strikeout rate remained about the same (35%), but he also walked 44 times, a big improvement over 2016 and the OBP was .368 at the break.
 
Since the 2017 All-Star break, Miguel Sanó hasn't been very good. The combined numbers from the second half of '17 and 2018 are .211 BA, 20 homers, 56 RBI. OBP at .292, slugging .408, with an OPS of .700. The walk rate is below 10% and the strikeout rate is 38%. These are not future Hall-of-Fame numbers. They aren't even starter numbers. In addition, according to metrics (and my eyes) Sanó remains a below-average third baseman, despite a plus-plus arm.
 
To summarize this rather elongated prologue, Sanó's on-field performance has been a roller coaster. He started looking like one of the brightest stars, faded, came back to that level again and faded again. Does this up-and-down have to do with injuries? Certainly. The point here is to suggest that the Twins shouldn't be counting on Sanófor too much. Expectations of another Frank Thomas or Miguel Cabrera should be tempered by now. I think they should expect more than they gotten since the All-Star break of 2017. They should get more than Mark Reynolds-like production. If the strikeouts keep coming and the homers are too infrequent, he can still be optioned. This club looks like at least a contender for postseason. If that is the case, they shouldn't be playing guys based on potential or upside.
 
Miguel Sanó is at a crossroads in his career (in my opinion). He soon will have a chance to step on stage with a good team and help them make postseason, and maybe have success there. He's now 26 and shouldn't be judged on what he might do, he should be judged by how he is actually performing on the field.As a Twins fan and a baseball fan, I hope he can find his earlier success. As someone who has seen a lot of hyped players come and go, I am a bit skeptical.

Miguel Sano enters the 2019 Major League Baseball season as one half of the Minnesota Twins largest question mark. The front office has tied the upcoming schedule to the production of both Sano and Byron Buxton. Needing to rebound from his worst year as a professional, it seems that an important development has taken place for the former top prospect. Commitment and accountability appear evident in a new report, and that’s always been the biggest question for the Dominican Native.
 
Recently the Star Tribune’s LaVelle E. Neal penned a piece on possible extension candidates for the Twins. Within the writing he noted that the Minnesota third basemen has lost 25 pounds, which would comfortably put him in the 265-275 range. At 6’4” he’s still a very large human being, but there’s no denying that it’s a more doable number and a development that should only relieve pressure on the titanium rod inserted into his leg. For this writer though, it’s never been about the weight.
 
Despite being signed as a shortstop, Sano bulked up and moved off the position quickly. He only continued to grow and add size as he progressed through the minors, and while much of that was muscle mass, the weight became an issue in recent years. Instructed by the Twins to take conditioning more seriously, in hopes of seeing a bump in production and renewed focus from the player, Sano failed to take the direction as anything more than advice. Despite being looked at as a key cornerstone, and knowing the investment made in him, the 25-year-old simply ignored his employer’s demands. With a trip back to Single-A and a .679 OPS in his rear-view mirror, the former All Star appears he’s finally had enough.
 
Obviously, there are physical limitations to what is realistically acceptable for a high-performing athlete to adhere to, but from purely a weight standpoint I could care less. What has always seemed most important from Sano is that he buy into the vision the organization has for him and believe in their process to get the most out of himself. After posting a .916 OPS in his rookie season, the .859 OPS during his All-Star campaign left room for improvement. Strikeouts are always going to be a part of a power hitters’ profile, but a consistent command of the strike zone and the ability to punish misses needs to be a key focus. Turning 26 in 2019, staving off a shift across the diamond or to a designated hitter role is also an integral piece of the puzzle.
 
So where does this all leave us in the year ahead? If process drives results, the fact that Miguel has committed to a conditioning program (and more importantly his employer’s wishes), suggests he’s on board with believing there’s more in the tank. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections have him slated for just a .752 OPS. Obviously that number doesn’t account for his injury or the ramifications of his 2018 output. Using that as a baseline however, I’d like to bet on the over.
 
At his best, Sano is a monster in the batter’s box. He punished baseballs with a hard-hit rate north of 44%. Fly balls leave the yard over a quarter of the time, and he chases out of the zone less than 25% while also missing under 15% of the time. That profile doesn’t work for everyone, but a player having the strength and slugging ability that this one does, it’s a perfect storm of relevancy.
 
On top of his own decisions this winter, Miguel may find accountability in the form of a clubhouse confidant for 2019. 38-year-old countryman Nelson Cruz joins the Twins fold for the year ahead. He was never a top prospect and didn’t truly debut until he was 28 years old. With more than enough wisdom to his credit, imparting learned principles on Sano could be a valuable development that holds weight well beyond whatever time they spend competing together.
 
As a new manager, Rocco Baldelli’s greatest accomplishment in the year ahead is going to be how well he can connect with and what he can generate out of his expected stars. Right now, it seems like the one playing the infield is catching up to the one in the outfield as far as desire is concerned, and that’s more than half of the battle.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The Twins have ridden the roller coaster during the Paul Molitor era. Up in 2015, way down in 2016, a peek at the playoffs in 2017 and now way down in 2018. The roller coaster claimed a front-office victim in longtime GM Terry Ryan two years ago and now there has to be some heat on field manager Molitor after this season's extreme disappointment.
 
The complaints about the old regime included being too "old school", including pitch-to-contact staffs, not using advanced metrics, cookie cutter approaches to hitting, and of course, not spending enough to bring in and keep talent. Fair complaints all, I think. However, in the Levine/Falvey era, we see little real progress and a real lack of talent in the upper minors. This year's crop of September call-ups is among the most uninspiring in recent memory.
 
I believe there are two keys to being competitive and sustaining that competitiveness for a number of years. The first is pitching. Levine and Falvey are supposed to be pitching guys. They have acquired pitching, but with mixed results at best. Their best talent at the top levels of the farm system doesn't have many, if any, outstanding talents. Addison Reed, Zach Duke, Lance Lynn, Jake Odorizzi didn't move the needle much for the big club this year. Perhaps they have suffered from some bad luck and just need to add quality until it sticks and stays. All I can say is this, the Twins rank in the bottom third of almost every meaningful pitching stat. You don't win year after year with far below average pitching.
 
The other component which is missing in my opinion is defense. For the last two years, the Twins have gone with a primary shortstop who is well below average defensively, couple that with a revolving door in center field this year, the trading of the regular second baseman and the season-ending injury to primary catcher Jason Castro, and you have a toxic mess turning outs into outs. Further, and if there is one complaint about Molitor that sticks, it is this. The team has been woeful at executing fundamental baseball. I'm talking about throwing to the proper base, making needless throws, failing to hit cutoff men and the like. Add in that opposing baserunners are taking extra bases like free gifts and this is tough to watch.
 
I think the front office needs to commit to pitching and defense in a big way this offseason. That would include making every effort to keep their most gifted defender (Byron Buxton) in Minnesota and on the field as much as possible. Secondly, I think the Twins need a defensive-minded shortstop, with the idea that Jorge Polanco can move to what I think is his natural position, second base. On the pitching front, more and better arms to augment the so-so rotation (I think Gibson/Berrios/Odorizzi is fine for #2-4) and a questionable bullpen. I like May/Hildenberger/Rogers, but more is needed included a closer.
 
The Twins have been in the baseball wilderness long enough. They need to have a solid plan for improvement, stick with it and stay relevant not for an occasional year, but consistently. I think the long suffering fan base deserves it.

A Closer Look


 
 
At this point, with the Twins busy Presidents Day weekend now officially come to a close, it can be said that most people (and those who frequent Twins Daily, especially) are aware that the hometown club completed a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi. The trade, first reported on Saturday night, had the Twins receiving Jake Odorizzi from the Rays in exchange for mid-level shortstop prospect Jermaine Palacios. Many were waiting for the other shoe to drop, certainly the Twins were not going to get Odorizzi - straight up - for a single prospect, and certainly not if that prospect was outside of their top 10 or 15 rankings.
 
After all, Jermaine Palacios, while a nice prospect and grades well - especially defensively - is 21 years old and playing at High A ball. Keith Law ranked Palacios at 24th best and MLB.com listed him as their 27th best prospect, and well behind other more highly touted shortstops in the system - namely, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon and Wander Javier.
 
So how is it that the Twins achieved this kind of trade? What does that say about Odorizzi?
 
The answer is probably much more complicated, Perhaps the Rays were, indeed, very smitten with Palacios. His tools do grade out to stick at shortstop, albeit his upside looks to be more of a utility man than a regular. It seems unlikely the Twins were bidding against themselves, to be able to get a straight 1 for 1 on Odorizzi, and he has been rumored to several other teams this offseason including the Angels, Nationals, Yankees and Orioles. How is it that among several teams vying for a competent major league pitcher, the Rays weren't able to add more than a single mid-level prospect in return?
 
Lets not forget, either, the Rays top prospect in their system - Willy Adames - is a shortstop and a potential star at the MLB level. Palacios figures to be, at minimum, blocked at the MLB level for several years by Adames who has already progressed to Double-A and was a Southern League All-Star.
 
The Rays not only traded Odorizzi for a single prospect, but the prospect they received is likely system depth? So perhaps the better question is, what does the trade say about the other clubs perceived value of Jake Odorizzi?
 
Who is Jake Odorizzi?
 
Depending on who you ask and under what context, you'll get a different answer to this question. Around Twins social media, I've seen such differing opinions - from "Should he be the Opening Day starter? He may be our best pitcher" to "He's, at best, a number 4 starter". I would contend that he is likely the middle ground between these two, very different statements.
 
As background, Odorizzi was a first round draft pick (2008 32nd Overall, Brewers), reaching Class A in the Brewers system. He was traded in the offseason following the 2009 season to the Kansas City Royals where he, by the 2011 season, was ranked as the Brewers number 1 prospect. While he wasn't the primary piece in the trade that sent him from Kansas City to Tampa Bay (Wil Myers headlined that blockbuster trade, sending James Shields and Wade Davis to Kansas City in exchange for Myers, Odorizzi, and two others.) he was a key element, ranking as the Royals 4th best prospect in their system at the time.
 
After receiving a cup of coffee in the majors in both 2012 and 2013, accruing only 37 innings pitched through those two seasons, he has 4 full seasons in the majors.
 
By standard metrics he's been a valuable mid-rotation arm - putting up ERA's of 4.13, 3.35 and 3.69 in 2014-'16, with park adjusted xFIP of 3.90, 3.96 and 4.44, respectively. His K/9 average during the first three seasons was a respectable 8.42, while maintaining an average HR/FB rate of 9.9%, or just slightly below the MLB average.
 
 
Wait. What about 2017?
 
Notice that I omitted 2017 from his stat lines? I thought you might. Odorizzi had, by most accounts, an abysmal 2017 season. Limited to 143.1 innings in 2017 after two trips to the Disabled List (hamstring, back injury), he saw regression in multiple areas. His ERA, at 4.14, the worst mark he's had since his rookie season - in conjunction with a horrid 5.43 FIP.
 
His 3.83 BB/9 mark fell well below league average and his HR/FB was an awful (almost impressively awful if I hadn't seen Kyle Gibsons 18%HR/FB mark) of 15% - all while seeing his GB% fall to 30.6%.
 
Unsurprisingly, Odorizzi gave up 30 home runs in 2017 and the long ball indeed was a crux, paired with a 7.52 ERA during the third trip though the order.
 
Fatigue, injury, and you can't even chalk it (all) up to bad luck, with a very low .227 BABIP.
 
 
So, what's the forecast for 2018?
 
Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs has a very compelling article that suggests Odorizzi may be an adjustment away from rectifying some of his issues from last season. His elevated four-seam fastball approach, which reached was tied for the highest 4S fastball height in the major leagues. Sawchik suggest that pairing the increased height with with increased height of his split-change, he may be losing "tunneling", or the vertical separation between the four-seamer and his split-change up, which generally produced his highest whiff rate (22%) in his arsenal of pitches.
 
Twins pitching coach, the newly hired Garvin Alston, has stressed that locating the fastball with his staff is a top priority and it would seem that as Odorizzi's fastball goes, so goes the season for Odorizzi.
 
As Brooks Baseball's player card for Odorizzi reads "(Odorizzi's) four-seam fastball generates an extremely high number of swings and misses compared to other pitchers fourseamers".
 
In a nutshell, if he can effectively locate his fastball and mix in his split-change up with better tunneling, his chances of returning to a pre-2017 Jake Odorizzi are fairly good.
 
 
How Good Is He?
 
Twins Pitching Analyst, Josh Kalk, hired this past December and formerly a Senior Analyst for the Tampa Bay Rays likely has as much information on Odorizzi as anyone, and it would follow that recommendations he may have had on Odorizzi held some weight in regards to the Twins trading for him. That said, what can we expect from him in the upcoming 2018 season?
 
Odorizzi, at 4 full years in the league, has shown the consistency (apart from 2017, which may or may not be an anomaly) of a number 3 or 4 starter, depending on the rotation he's placed in.
 
Baseball Reference has similar pitchers as Danny Salazar and Jeremy Hellickson - and if he pitches like pre-2017 Odorizzi is a fair comparision, though I would argue he would be a perfect bridge between those two pitchers. He won't miss as many bats as Salazar and will miss more bats than Hellickson, when on.
 
Salazar, when healthy (and maybe not pitching in the same rotation as Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco), is likely a number 2/3 (his peripherals are great, with 12.8 K/9 and a FIP of 3.48 - but he walks too many hitters) and Hellickson is likely a number 5 (if you wanted to look at worst case scenario of progression for Odorizzi, I would look at the staggering decline of Hellickson post-2016.)
 
Conclusion
 
So, no. I don't believe Odorizzi is the Twins best pitcher. Jose Berrios will likely hold that mantle this season, barring a trade for an established ace or a surprise signing of Jake Arrieta. Even Santana, if healthy and capable or repeating (or coming close to repeating) his 2017 season would provide superior results.
 
That said, the Odorizzi trade gave the Twins something they need - an arm capable of holding down a middle of the rotation spot, keep them in games and get some K's when needed. He slots nicely in between Berrios, Santana when he returns, with Gibson occupying the 4 spot.
 
Temper your expectations, Twins fans. We didn't sneak one by the Rays and snag a front of the rotation starter, but we did get a young, controllable, arbitration eligible middle of the rotation-type arm - for essentially a High A projected utility infielder. That's pretty impressive.
 
 
 
Twitter: @four_six_three

If you're a Minnesota Twins fan, you're probably already well aware of the allegations that independent photographer Betsy Bissen went public via Twitter a couple days ago with her #MeToo experience involving Twins star Miguel Sano. I won't go into all the details but you can easily find them with a quick browser search.
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/metoo-300x169.jpg
 
In a nutshell, Betsy's account is that, following an autograph session at a memorabilia store in 2015, Sano forcibly attempted to pull her into a restroom. The struggle, from which she ultimately extricated herself, lasted several terrifying minutes.
 
Over the past few weeks and months, we've seen victim after victim of male abuse of power/position come to light, most predominantly in the Hollywood, political and corporate environments. However, to my limited knowledge, this is perhaps the first allegation against a major league professional athlete, at least since the #MeToo movement came to prominence.
 
Given the historically misogynistic world of professional sports, the only surprising thing is that it took this long for experiences such as Betsy's to become public. Her allegation may or may not have been the first involving a MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL player, but I think we can be pretty certain it won't be the last.
 
MLB is beginning an investigation into the allegations regarding Sano, as is their responsibility and duty, apparently, under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement with the MLB Players Association. It is proper, I know, for those who know neither Sano nor Bissen personally, to decide they want to hold off on judgement until MLB does it's investigation thing.
 
Most of us who know Betsy at all (I consider myself her friend, though we are not what either of us, I'm sure, would consider to be close friends) are not generally feeling compelled to wait out an investigation before expressing our unequivocal support for her.
 
In fact, since she went public, she has received what would at least be considered public corroborative support from various parties who have, in the past, been at least somewhat familiar with Mr. Sano's treatment of women in manners not inconsistent with what Betsy described.
 
One person, Mike Holmdahl, recounted via Twitter that he had observed Sano making a female usher in Chattanooga uncomfortable during Sano's playing days with the Lookouts earlier in the same season that the event involving Bissen took place. That person was told by a senior usher there that they were so aware of Sano's activities with regard to female ushers that they had made an effort to avoid posting females near the home dugout. (You can find Holmdahl's full recounting as part of Brandon Warne's excellent piece at Zone Coverage.)
 
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports wrote that he had been told by, "five people, including teammates, ex-teammates and confidants, with whom he has spent time," that they characterized Sano as someone who, "saw the pursuit of women as sport," One of them called Sano "a ticking time bomb."
 
Jeff Goldklang, a member of the ownership group that currently owns the St. Paul Saints (for whom Bissen does some photography work) and previously owned the Twins' class high-A Ft. Myers Miracle related via Twitter that, "I've seen enough of both people to have absolutely no doubts in this story's veracity. I've personally seen Sano act inappropriately towards a woman- while in uniform, no less."
 
In fact, given these statements of at least partial corroboration, it does lead one to wonder what the Twins' front office knew about Sano's issues with women and when they knew it. But that's a question for another day and, if the MLB and the media do their jobs, we'll possibly get some answers some day.
 
All of this is just by way of saying that it would appear that Betsy Bissen is worthy of the support that her friends and many others are giving her.
 
But I'm not writing this to say I support her. She deserves more than that.
 
I'm writing to say, "Thank you," to Betsy for having the courage to speak out, knowing that the result would not be 100% supportive - that there would be a significant - and very vocal - segment of the population of Twins Territory who would demonize her for speaking out (conveniently hiding behind anonymous social media pseudonyms in most cases, of course}.
 
I will admit that Betsy's public allegations made me uncomfortable, just as the whole #MeToo movement has made me uncomfortable. But you know what? It's SUPPOSED to make me uncomfortable.
 
It's supposed to make me take stock of my own views and treatment of women - past, present and, in particular, future. And it has done just that.
 
I'm a 61 year old man. And while I certainly have never behaved toward any woman the way that Betsy related that Sano behaved toward her, I'm absolutely certain my words and actions toward women at various points in my life would not stand up to the spotlight that #MeToo is shining on us today.
 
I'm not naive enough to think #MeToo and people like Betsy Bissen are going to quickly and dramatically change the way we view and treat women in our society, especially, perhaps, in an era where our country has elected an openly misogynist President, sending a signal to a considerable segment of our population that it's OK to behave similarly toward our wives, girlfriends, sisters, daughters and granddaughters.
 
In fact, I doubt we'll see the kind of change that is needed take hold fully during my lifetime.
 
But, thanks to people like Betsy and others possessing similar courage, I have hope that my two grandsons (ages 2 and 4) will grow up in a world where they don't even question whether it's appropriate to treat girls and women with respect and, frankly, just common decency.
 
More importantly yet, I have hope that my not-quite-yet born granddaughter will grow up in such a world.
 
I have hope that she will grow up knowing that, if she aspires to be a sports photographer (or an actress or a political aide or a corporate executive), she shouldn't have to accept that being subject to what Betsy Bissen went through (or much worse) is considered just the price of admission into her chosen profession or avocation.
 
So, on behalf of my granddaughter and myself, let me just say it.
 
Thank you, Betsy.

It’s not often that I allow someone in my mentions to get me so wound up that I devote an entire, stand-alone article to a single person, but here we are.
 
The tweet in question — feel free to click and read the mind-bending thread in all its glory — appears as follows:
http://zonecoverage.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Capture-1.jpg
 
NOTE: This person has since blocked me for reasons that don’t entirely make sense. He has also deleted the tweets, so I have saved this screenshot to remember his weird rant, which also included alluding to the Twins not going after Shohei Otani because of how poorly ByungHo Park and Tsuyoshi Nishioka panned out. Bad takes all around!
 
It’s not often that baseball provides irrefutable evidence in a discussion. Nobody can rationally debate that the Houston Astros won the World Series or who won the Gold Glove awards which were handed out on Tuesday night. Those are set in stone.
 
But in debates, there can always be varying levels of certainty, different angles being pursued by those involved and a number of other situations at play. In this case, the general debate is that the Twins front office messed up at the trade deadline.
 
And quite frankly, there is no evidence to back that up.
 
None.
 
The back story to the debate centers around the Twins having the second-most available in their July 2 pool to sign international free agents. This looms especially large this offseason with Japanese phenom Shohei Otani petitioning to come over.
 
Part of the reason the Twins have that much money is that they received some back from the Washington Nationals in the Brandon Kintzler trade.
 
This is where that debate begins, as the party in question says the Twins “had no business trading legitimate major-league pitching at the deadline last year.”
 
The simplest — and possibly laziest — form of logical fallacy is revisionism. In other words, looking at a situation and how it plays out, then saying “Well I wouldn’t have done THAT” without offering anything in the way of a solution.
 
Even that isn’t in Mr. Papas’ favor. Why?
 
Please click through to Zone Coverage here to read this story in its entirety.

Hey everyone,
After doing some research, I have come up with what I think is not only a perfect off-season plan for our Minnesota Twins but also a really possible one too. Feel free to comment below I love to hear new ideas and feedback.
 
2018 Plan:
 
Free Agency:
I think because of our success shown last year at the plate and in the field we should be making a big push through free agency to push ourselves to be real contenders for the first time in a while. So here's some needs followed by my wishlist that I would send to Falvine.
 
Needs:
1. Starting Pitchers (Obviously) but good/great ones not lottery tickets
2. DH!!! (Robbie Grossman is a great guy but really should be a 4th OF at best on a contending team.)
3. Relief Pitching (We need upgrades in the RHP and LHP categories)
4. Reliable Utility Guy in the infield (Would like to see Escobar at 3B more than occasionally and Sano preparing to move to 1B and DH more often)
 
In House Options To Fill Needs...
Starting Pitcher:
1. Stephen Gonsalves (It's about time we give him a shot to take that 5th man spot in the rotation)
2. Trevor May (I still believe in him enough to give him one more shot at a rotation spot due to giving up Revere for him)
3. Fernando Romero/Kohl Stewart/Felix Jorge (Not my first choices by any means but wouldn't be a bad idea to give them a real look to see what we have before moving on. MLB is trending towards trusting younger players and this would follow suit)
 
DH:
1. Kennys Vargas (I love the guy as a person but it's time to move on...)
2. Robbie Grossman (See above)
3. Miguel Sano (Leaves a hole at Utility if Escobar moves to 3B until our younger prospects are ready)
4. Brent Rooker (Eventually...Lots of promise in this kid. Can't Wait!)
 
RH Relief Pitcher:
1. Ryan Pressly (I pray every night before bed that he turns into a poor mans Andrew Miller)
2. Tyler Duffey (Decent pitcher with some hiccups, makes my bullpen in 2018 for sure.)
3. Alan Busenitz (Solid Rookie Campaign. Worth more looks in 2018)
4. Trevor Hildenberger (Same as Busenitz)
5. John Curtiss (So much potential but watching his film makes me think he's a AAAA kind of pitcher. Hope he proves me wrong)
6. Chargois/Reed/Eades/Littel/Melotakis/Burdi?? (All have makeup of good options but are not proven and most have injury history
 
LH Relief Pitcher:
1. Taylor Rogers (He can be that sub 3.00 ERA reliever just has to place his fastball better)
2. Buddy Boshers (Nope.)
3. Gabriel Moya (lots of flash but unproven...I believe in him because of the delivery though)
4. Dietrich Enns (would like to see him in AAA working as a starter for possible spot starts in the show)
5. Adalberto Mejia (could make some long relief appearances but I hope he gets a rotation spot)
6. Tyler Jay (Future Closer candidate and gem to watch...you don't use the 6th pick on a guy you don't envision on your ball club.)
 
Utility/Bench
1. Eduardo Escobar (Deserves a starting spot to start the 2018 season)
2. Ehire Adrianza (Good story but the bat doesn't do it for me)
3. Granite (Yes Yes and Yes, very good 4th OF.)
4. Grossman (Trade or DFA we just got his career year)
5. Mitch Garver (Groom him big time this year in the show)
 
Wishlist in Free Agency:
DH:
1. Carlos Santana*** (Pay the money, he fits two needs...DH and Utility, and is a great teammate to have around our young core)
2. Mike Napoli (Only if the price is right otherwise he blocks a spot for one of our prospects to develop)
3. Yonder Alonso ( If he's okay with not playing 1B regularly he would be a definite upgrade over Vargas's bat
 
Starting Pitcher:
(Don't overspend on Arrieta or Darvish...Stretch your dollar)
1. Alex Cobb*** (Again, PAY THE MONEY. His style fits in Target Field exceptionally well and would be happy to be a 2nd/3rd starter. Also, the Q.O. he received may make his market shrink which means cheaper for us.)
2. Lance Lynn (Ehh...good numbers but I'm not convinced he can put those up consistently with the money he will demand.)
3. Anibal Sanchez (1 year prove it deal with a second year option full of incentives. I think he has more in the tank)
4. Clay Buchholz (Same as Sanchez)
 
RH Relief Pitcher:
1. Addison Reed*** (has history closing, will come cheaper than what he should. locks down our setup or closer spot)
2. Trevor Rosenthal (Give him a shot. Might find a 27 year old who flourishes with new scenery.)
3. Drew Storen (Have wanted to see him in a Twins uniform for a while. Has a good arsenal for the $$$ he'll cost)
4. Steve Cishek (Funky delivery. Good Middle Relief guy)
5. Luke Gregorson (Good 7th/8th inning piece)
6. Glen Perkins (Minor League Deal for the heck of it)
7. Pat Neshek (Funky Delivery again but older than Cishek so he worries me)
 
LH Relief Pitcher:
1. Mike Minor*** (I love him! Opted out of his deal so make the Royals hurt because of it. Nasty stuff. Could see him as our closer...ERA could be definitely lower than 3.00)
2. Brian Duensing/ Fernando Abad (Minor League deals or cheap MLB ones. Could regain some magic back in Minnesota)
(No one else because I believe Rogers and Moya can hold down the fort if we get one of these guys...especially Minor
 
Utility:
These Guys have to come cheaper than what they'll originally ask...
1. Darwin Barney (Plays multiple positions and has been in the Cubs locker room...knows how to work with young players)
2. Adam Rosales (Solid Dozier fill in to keep him fresh. Also plays shortstop with decent glove and bat numbers)
3. Erick Aybar (Veteran Leadership...good relationship with Torii Hunter)
 
That's all I have for now please comment below with what you think. This will give us an Elite Lineup and tolerable pitching to hopefully run away with the central (I think the Indians are going to regress and the other teams are irrelevant, now's the time to play our cards and strike!!!) Coming out with trade ideas for the off season soon so stay tuned.

Hello all,
 
It is a great time of the year to be a baseball rumor junkie and (finally) a Twins fan. In last years blueprint forum I advocated a complete teardown in trading both Dozier and Santana. This year I am advocating for just the opposite. I think the Twins are entering year 1 of a 5-year window to truly contend. I say 5 years because that is one year longer than the Twins have team control over key players such as Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Rosario, and Buddy Boshers (Kidding). I extend this by 1 year because I think there are relatively easy ways the Twins can extend this window via extensions and just having a more competent front office and development process. Ideally, Falvey and Levine will be able to build a sustainable pipeline of talent so that the Twins can pick and choose key guys they wish to extend and supplement them with young talent like Royce Lewis, Blayne Enlow, etc.. However, we know the reality of a non-big market team often means rebuilding becomes necessary to generating a potential championship level team. So the Twins need to start operating as if they have a 5 year window that starts now. Admittedly, I am more aggressive in this blueprint compared to what I believe Falvey and Levine actually will be, but I don’t think any of it is too far outside of the box.
 
Moves that already happened
 
Sign Paul Molitor to a 3-year extension: I expected this to happen and am glad that he will return. I know there was some controversy over his bunting habits and maybe even his bullpen usage but I thought those are minor discrepancies that don’t rub me in the wrong way. Overall he is very receptive of new information, appears to have the respect of the clubhouse, and has an excellent working relationship with Falvey and Levine. All are very important aspects in a modern baseball manager. Worst comes to worst, the Twins would have no problem eating a couple of million dollars if they want to go another direction before the contract expires.
 
Not Retain Neil Allen: I would assume that at least part of the holdup on the Molitor announcement was some back and forth on the future of Neil Allen. Sounded like Molitor wanted Neil Allen back, but it is hard to justify him deserving to come back based on the pitching accomplishments over the past 3 seasons. It is impossible to quantify the effect a pitching coach has on a staff but it think it is safe to say it was time for a new voice in this area for the Twins.
 
Declining LHP Glen Perkins Team Option and Paying his $700,000 Buyout: This was seen as a given and was an obvious move for the Twins. Perk made excellent progress to even pitch this season. I don’t know if this is the end of his baseball career, but based on his emotions after his last game this season, it certainly is a possibility. I hope he has a future in some capacity with the organization as he seems to be very smart and likeable. Maybe they can even bring him back on a minor league deal. Thanks for everything Perk!
 
Releasing/Outrighting C Anthony Recker: I’m a bit confused on this one. I remember I looked a couple of weeks ago and so him on the 40 man roster and thought “what the hell?”. I now see that he refused assignment to the minors and is a free agent as of October 10th. However, I also see that he was outrighted in late July so not sure if he was even on the 40 man anymore. Either way, he no longer is on the 40 man and that is a good thing.
 
Hiring Garvin Alston as Pitching Coach: I had never heard his name before the hire. I was someone that was all in on the Maddux or Hickey train. I don’t know if either of them even had interest or if Alston was the guy all along. Either way, I give the benefit of the doubt to Falvey and Levine because I think they have earned it based on the hires of Rowson and Pickler last season. They’ve also brought in John Manuel from Baseball America, Daniel Adler from the NFL, and Jeremy Zoll from the Dodgers. All of these hires are very impressive and show that the rest of the baseball community is buying into the future of the Twins. Honestly, if Terry Ryan had made the hire of Garvin Alston I would not have given him the benefit of the doubt, but Falvine have earned our patience and trust thus far.
 
Lost Bench Coach Joe Vavra to the Detroit Tigers: Gardy is getting the old band back together in Detroit!! Best of luck to Joe, but I have a feeling the Twins will be fine with out him.
 
Outrighting Niko Goodrum: I’m not sure he is a big leaguer. One of those guys that didn’t progress through the system as hoped. He was a given to be removed from the 40 man.
 
Lost Randy Rosario & Daniel Palka on Waivers: Both of these guys were borderline 40 man roster candidates and that in and of itself diminishes any trade value they might have had. It would have been nice to sneak them through waivers, but I didn’t expect that to happen. If it did, both would have been strong candidates to be lost in the Rule 5 draft anyways.
 
Lost Nik Turley on Waivers: Never has had a long term future with the club
 
Outrighting Chris Gimenez: In my initial blueprint, I had the Twins tendering him and starting the season with him on the 25 man roster. But I do get the move. Gimenez appears to be a great guy and was an above average backup catcher last season. Wish him nothing but the best and I’m sure most Twins fans feel the same.
 
Outrighting Ryan O’Rourke: O’Rourke is another player that I initially kept on my 40 man roster, although not the opening day 25 man roster. I thought that he would be kept around and given another chance as a loogie. But again, I get the move and am not all that upset, especially if the Twins feel they can add and better utilize his 40 man spot and maybe keep him on a minor league deal.
 
Hire Bench Coach Derek Shelton: I don’t know anything about him besides his background, but Falvey and Levine again will get my trust on this.
 
Future Predictions
 
(Where the Fun Starts)
 
40 Man Removals:
The Twins had 45 guys that would fall on the 40 man roster at the end of the season. This includes the guys they have on the 60 DL that will need to either be added to the 40 man, passed through waivers, or removed from the Organization all together.
 
Glen Perkins & Bartolo Colon Retire: I addressed Perkins already, but I do believe that both him and Bartolo will retire. Bartolo has said he would like to pitch, and if he does that is great, just not with the Twins. I thought it was very fun having Bartolo around and he was deserving of being in the 2017 Twins rotation. 45 year old Bartolo Colon should not sniff the field for the Twins in 2018.
 
Dillon Gee & Hector Santiago Depart Via Free Agency: Santiago is all but gone at this point. After a great April, he was awful and then was hurt. Seems like a nice enough guy, but him signing with a different teams would be best for both parties. I thought Gee pitched well for the Twins, but the Twins should look to upgrade there bullpen and hopefully fill it out with the young talent we’ve heard about for 3 years that they have coming. If they swing and miss in Free Agency, I could see them circling back on Gee, but that means a couple of things went wrong.
 
Waive / DFA / Outright the Following Players (I can’t remember what means what):
 
Buddy Boshers: Been used as a lefty because of a lack of options elsewhere in the organization. That should change with likely one free agent lefty coming in, and Tyler Jay ascending.
Michael Tonkin: It has already happened to him once this year, seems inevitable.
Phil Hughes: He is a sunk cost and I would have no problem cutting bait. No team will claim him and his contract, so why waste a 40 man spot on him? You could always keep him, put him on the DL to start the season, then add him back to the 40 man when ready. This front office is keen on roster manipulation and DFA’ing Phil Hughes would allow for the Twins to protect one extra player from the Rule 5 Draft.
 
Arbitration:
Salaries are from MLB Trade Rumors Projections**
 
3B/SS/2B Eduardo Escobar – Tender @ $4.9 M. Escobar is the easiest decision in arbitration. He has proven two separate times that he is more than capable of stepping in as an everyday player if needed. Plus, we’ve learned that he is much better defensively at third base than he was at shortstop. Sano is headed towards surgery, and Eduardo Escobar provides excellent insurance at that position and can also play shortstop and second base if needed. He is another great clubhouse guy that gives a team excellent production as a utility infielder.
 
SP Kyle Gibson – Tender @ $5.3 M. In July it looked like there was 0 chance Gibson would be back in 2018. Now, at the very least the Twins have to tender him as he has become an asset with some value. I’m perfectly fine with the team going in with him as the 5th starter or even trying him out in a bullpen role. However, my number 1 choice would be to shop Kyle Gibson and see if you can sell somewhat high on him. He has two years of arbitration left. In the second half Gibson had an ERA of 3.76, an xFIP of 3.63, and 8.22 K/9. His strong numbers were actually backed up by strong peripherals, which could mean that he has turned a corner and is just a late bloomer. I think it is more likely that he pitched a little over his head in the second half and the Twins would be wise to see what value he has.
 
SS/2B/LF – Ehire Adrianza – Tender @ $1.0 M. Adrianza was an excellent find by Falvey and Levine. Only 5 years removed from being a top 5 prospect in a strong Giants system, Adrianza is a plus defender with a lot of versatility. He also proved he can hit last season. He is a no brainer for the Twins at $1 Million and they are fortunate to have him under control for the next 3 seasons.
 
RP Ryan Pressly – Tender @ $1.6 M. Like Gibson, Pressly is another guy that saved his 2018 spot by a strong second half in 2017. Looking at the direction of the bullpen, there likely will only be room for 1 of him and Duffey, and while Duffey was unusable down the stretch, Pressly looked like he was back in peak form. I think you have to bring him back at $1.6 Million and hope his second half carries over into 2018. If it doesn’t, the Twins can always cut bait midseason at that low of a number.
 
OF/DH Robbie Grossman – Tender @ $2.4 M & Trade. Grossman might not have a spot on the 2018 Twins, but I still think they have to tender him because he is enough of an asset that they shouldn’t just let him walk away. If the Twins can find a trade match, I think that they will definitely do it, or else he should be back as a bench bat.
 
SP Trevor May – Tender @ $0.6 M. There is a lot of unknown here with May coming off of Tommy John Surgery. But all signs point to him competing for a rotation spot again and I know that Twins fans are very curious to see him get a chance in the rotation again. If he can regain his 2015 form, he should be a solid #3 or #4 starter. May isn’t really all that interesting for a tender vs. non-tender perspective as he is a lock at this low of a number, but he is very interesting from the standpoint of potential role and production come 2018.
Trades:
Trade Kennys Vargas Rights to Korea: I’ve heard rumors about this and more likely than not Vargas is not back with the Twins next season. I’m not sure exactly how this type of thing works, but Korea could be a logical path for Vargas. If he has any value on the trade market, I’d like to see the Twins explore that path as well.
 
Trade SS/2B Nick Gordon, RHP Felix Jorge, RHP Kohl Stewart, and OF LaMonte Wade to the Pirates for SP Gerrit Cole: Honestly I have no clue if this would be enough to get Gerrit Cole from Pittsburgh. I guess there is truly no way of knowing because we don’t know what the market will dictate. Sometimes I feel as if this is a lot to give up for two years of Cole, and other times I feel like it wouldn’t be enough. So I go back and forth. What I do know is that the Twins should seriously consider acquiring Gerrit Cole or Chris Archer. I would think that Nick Gordon would be an appropriate headliner for either deal, and there is enough potential in Wade, Jorge, and Stewart that I think that alone is an enticing package. The Twins will not (and should not) be offering 7 years and $150 million for Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta. So the only ways they are going to truly bolster the rotation is via development and trades. This would still leave Romero and Gonsalves knocking on the doors, and give the Twins a legitimate looking rotation that could contend.
Would this be enough to get Cole? Would you do it or does it shorten the Twins window too much? Interested to hear your thoughts
 
Trade OF/DH Robbie Grossman & RHP Tyler Duffey to the Rays for LHP Resly Linares: I don’t know how much value Grossman and Duffey have on the market. I would likely tender Grossman, but shop him to see if we could get something for him. When it comes to Duffey, there is no way that both him and Pressly are back for the Twins. They would just be taking up spots that could be better occupied by guys like Reed, Jay, Burdi, etc. I think Pressly played his way into one more shot while Duffey played his way out of one. On the flip side, both Duffey and Grossman have had success as big leaguers for the Twins. Duffey was the Twins best starter during the playoff push of 2015 and Grossman has been a competent player that gets on base at a very high clip. I would guess if either is traded, it would be for young lottery type pitching. Linares is an intriguing lefty prospect in the Rays system who is not super highly regarded, but could be a lottery ticket type of guy. And hey, Robbie hit a homer in Tampa this year so maybe they like him. Yes I am grasping at straws as people rarely report on Robbie Grossman steam. Long story short, I don’t see Duffey and Grossman back, but I wouldn’t just give both of them away.
Free Agency Signings:
Resign RP Matt Belisle to a 1 year, $4 million contract: I would be fine with Matt Belisle coming back as the teams 4th or 5th reliever next season. He was very good down the stretch and apparently had a good impact behind the scenes. That being said, if someone offers him 2 years and $10 million, I tell him thank you for everything he did and good luck. But if the Twins can get him on a 1 year, $3 to 5 million deal, I think he is worth bringing back, but not a top priority.
 
Sign RP Wade Davis to a 5 year, $77 million contract: I know this would be very Un-Twins like. But I think they at least need to look into make a run at Wade Davis. They could probably get him right at $15 a year if you are willing to throw in a 5th year (Age 36 Season). I do it if it stays under 5 and $80. If the market inflates over that, I back away. Making a large investment in an elite reliever is a much better use of $15 million than continually signing the Ricky Nolasco’s and Phil Hughes of the world. Davis would not block anyone in the bullpen, and he automatically gives the Twins a lockdown anchor that they would need for the foreseeable future. If the last couple of postseasons have taught us anything, it is that a lockdown relief pitcher is a necessity now (See Chapman, Miller, Davis circa 2015, Jansen, etc.) to compete in the postseason. The Twins have a few darts like Jay, Burdi, and Reed that could hit the big leagues soon, but they are all far from a sure thing and why not add one guy who is exactly that for the next 5 years that the Twins plan to compete?
 
Sign RP Jake McGee to a 3 Year, $18 million contract: This move, or a move like this, will almost certainly happen for the Twins this offseason. They will likely find someone in the Addison Reed, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw category of 7th to 8th inning guys and give them 3 years at $5 to $8 million a year. I like McGee in part because he is a lefty, and the Twins have been extra thin there. McGee also has had a consistent track record and tends to fly under the national spotlight. This is another spot where the market could dictate who the Twins turn too, but expect a move of this ilk this no matter what else they do.
 
Sign OF/DH Jose Bautista to a 1 Year, $6 million contract: Let’s finally get Joey Bats to Target Field in a home uniform. While there is evidence that he might in fact be cooked, to me he would be worth a flier to see if he could stick at DH. Bautista solves a couple of problems for the Twins in a potential low risk, high reward deal. The Twins could stand to add a right handed bat and a DH who mashes. The worst that could happen is Bautista hits .190 in April in May and the Twins DFA him and cut their losses. However, if Bautista somehow finds his groove again, the Twins lineup could look extra deadly. Plus, Bautista won’t need to hit cleanup and he’d likely be the 6 or 7 hitter. If Bautista somehow can land a deal for $12 to $15 million, then the Twins can shut down my long-time dream. There are a lot of guys that could come in with a similar role as this like Napoli, Mark Reynolds, Lucas Duda, etc.
 
40 Man Roster Additions:
1B Lewin Diaz
LHP Stephen Gonsalves
RHP Zack Littell
LHP Lewis Thorpe
RHP Nick Burdi
RHP Jake Reed
RHP Luke Bard
LHP Mason Melotakis
 
Gonsalves, Diaz, Littell, and Thorpe are all legitimate prospects with a lot of value that are virtual locks to be added. I think Bard, Reed, and Burdi would all get selected in the rule 5 draft. All 3 could contribute to the Twins in 2018. I’m admittedly higher on Burdi than most still are, because I think the ceiling could be ridiculous. But it would be extremely easy for a team to hide him this year as he returns from Tommy John surgery. They could just stash him on the DL, and not have to return him to the Twins. I am not giving up on Burdi until after we see him pitch in a Twins uniform. Unfortunately, that might be late 2018 at the earliest. I am a bit surprised we didn’t see both Reed and Bard in 2017 with all the relievers the Twins went through. Like Burdi, I would like to see them as major league options for 2018. Reed and Bard throw mid 90’s, while Burdi throws in the upper 90’s. All have a strong track record of missing bats (Although Reed doesn’t have the powerful K numbers of the other two). These are the types of guys the Twins will want to keep around and build a future bullpen off of. I would also add Melotakis to round out the 40 man. He should get a shot at some point, and I’m giving him the nod over Buddy Boshers for now.
 
Opening Day 25 Man Roster
Rotation
RHP Gerrit Cole - $7.5 M
RHP Jose Berrios - $0.55 M
RHP Ervin Santana - $13.5 M
RHP Kyle Gibson - $5.3M
RHP Trevor May - $0.6 M
Total: $27.45 M
 
Bullpen
RHP Wade Davis - $15.4 M
LHP Jake McGee - $6.0 M
RHP Trevor Hildenberger - $0.55 M
LHP Taylor Rogers - $0.55 M
RHP Matt Belisle - $4.0 M
RHP Ryan Pressly - $1.6 M
RHP Alan Busenitz - $0.55 M
Total: $28.65 M
 
Lineup
1 CF Byron Buxton - $0.56 M
2 1B Joe Mauer - $23.0 M
3 2B Brian Dozier - $9.0 M
4 3B Miguel Sano - $0.6 M
5 LF Eddie Rosario - $0.58 M
6 SS Jorge Polanco - $0.55 M
7 DH Jose Bautista - $6.0 M
8 RF Max Kepler - $0.55 M
9 C Jason Castro - $8.5 M
Total: $49.34 M
 
Bench
C/1B/LF Mitch Garver - $0.55 M
SS/2B/LF Ehire Adrianza - $1.0 M
3B/2B/SS Eduardo Escobar - $4.9 M
OF Zack Granite - $0.55 M
Total: $7.00 M
 
Other
SP Phil Hughes - $13.2 M
1B Byung Ho Park - $3.0 M
Total: $16.2 M
 
Total Salary for Opening Day 25 Man Roster: $128.72 M
 
I really don’t think that $129 M in payroll is some absurd unreachable number for the Twins, especially with potentially $50 M coming off next offseason. $129 M is under the average salary in baseball and would have ranked 17th in major league baseball last season. Not ridiculous or out of the question for a mid market team like the Twins, and they are not committed to big money long-term deals to anyone besides Wade Davis
 
Remaining 40 Man Roster
LHP Adalberto Mejia
LHP Stephen Gonsalves
LHP Dietrich Enns
RHP Aaron Slegers
LHP Gabriel Moya
LHP Lewis Thorpe
RHP Fernando Romero
RHP John Curtiss
RHP Nick Burdi
RHP Luke Bard
RHP Zack Littell
LHP Mason Melotakis
RHP Jake Reed
RHP J.T. Chargois
1B Lewin Diaz
 
A lot of pitchers, I know. I don’t see a ton of position players in the system that the Twins need to add to the 40 man and protect. I think at some point there will be another move to add a couple of position players early in the season.
 
Top Prospects Going into the season / 2018 Starting Level / ETA
1. SS Royce Lewis – A – 2020
2. LHP Stephen Gonsalves – AAA – 2018
3. RHP Fernando Romero – AAA – 2018
4. 1B/OF Brent Rooker – A+ – 2019
5. SS Wander Javier – Rk – 2021
6. OF Alex Kirilloff – Rk – 2020
7. RHP Blayne Enlow – Rk – 2021
8. 1B Lewin Diaz – A+ – 2019
9. LHP Tyler Jay – AAA – 2018
10. RHP Brusdar Graterol – Rk – 2021
 
 
2018 Next guys called up Pecking order / ETA
 
1. LHP Adalberto Mejia: Mejia has almost a full year of MLB experience under his belt now. At times it was clear that he was not ready for it yet, but all and all had a lot of positives in his rookie season. Under my projected roster, they wouldn’t have a roster spot for Mejia, and that is okay. There is nothing wrong with Mejia getting more seasoning in Rochester and then coming back to the big leagues at some point during the season. They second the Twins need a spot start, an injury to a pitcher occurs, or the bullpen gets overused, Mejia will be the first call up.
ETA: April
 
2. RHP John Curtiss: Saw limited action last season, but if he continues to pitch well as the closer in Rochester, he will inevitably bang on the door of the bullpen at Target Field.
ETA: April
 
3. RHP J.T. Chargois: He would be higher up if I knew what was going on with this injury he has. I hope for his sake he is able to get healthy because he certainly has the stuff to be part of the future of the Twins bullpen.
ETA: May
 
4. LHP Stephen Gonsalves: This will depend on two things:
1. How well Gonsalves pitches in AAA to begin the season. He pitched alright there to finish 2017, but one horrendous outing has skewed his end numbers.
2. What ends up happening with the Twins rotation. This will determine when an opportunity is available. There are many unknowns in the rotation, and my guess is that the front office has a process mapped out of when they want Gonsalves to be in the MLB.
I see Gonsalves pitching in the rotation by the midway point of the season.
ETA: June
 
5. RHP Jake Reed: Reed has had an excellent minor league track record outside of 2015 in Chattanooga where he struggled in his promotion. He doesn’t necessarily have as high of a ceiling as Jay and Burdi, but he might be the safer bet and deserves a chance.
ETA: June
 
6. RHP Nick Burdi: I feel like this is the third year in a row that I’ve predicted Nick Burdi will be a Twin by July. I should probably stop doing that. Admittedly, I’m not too sure on the timeline of his Tommy John Surgery. Of course he will need to throw well in the minors, and also come back from the surgery well to be in a position to be with the team this season. I could be overly optimistic on Burdi, as I’ve been known to be in the past. I could also be completely wrong about a realistic timeline in the return from Tommy John Surgery. I am very optimistic about his ceiling and potential, and just hope he can stay healthy for a couple of years to continue to develop.
ETA: July
 
7. LHP Dietrich Enns: Enns had a cup of coffee with the Twins last season in Milwaukee. It was a short start, but didn’t go horribly, just a high pitch count. He’ll be 27 in May, so it would be logical to think that this will be the year that the Twins want to see what they have with him over an extended period, and if he is worth a 40 man spot next season. I don’t have deep knowledge of his stuff, but I would think his ceiling is a #5 starter or a good 6th to 7th inning guy.
ETA: July
 
8. RHP Luke Bard: I’m very curious about Bard. I know he was a comp round A pick in 2012 and was set back by injuries. What is so impressive about him is his massive jump in strikeouts with 99 in 65.1 innings between AA and AAA this last season. Could this be that he has figured something out? I think it is worth finding out. He certainly was drafted in a high position with potential.
ETA: August
 
9. LHP Tyler Jay: He was the number 5 pick just two and a half years ago, and his stock has dipped because of his move to the bullpen. But he has a chance to be a very good reliever one day and it would be a lot of fun to see him come on strong again this year and play his way into the Twins bullpen down the stretch. He was promising in the fall league at times, but his numbers are skewed by two very bad outings. Like I have been with Burdi, I might be too optimistic by saying he has a chance to be a part of the bullpen for the stretch run in 2018, but he will be 24 in April and provided he stays healthy, should progress nicely in the minor leagues.
ETA: September
 
10. RHP Fernando Romero: Romero will be 23 and looks to have conquered AA. It will be interesting to see how he fairs in AAA this season. If he performs well, we could see him by mid summer. Out of all the Twins pitchers in the system, he probably has the most ace type stuff. I think we see him at some point in 2018, but to be safe I am saying he is a September call-up.
ETA: September
 
We will also likely see the following players at some point in 2018:
LHP Mason Melotakis, RHP Aaron Slegers, LHP Gabriel Moya, RHP Phil Hughes, and DH/1B Byung Ho Park
Moves I didn’t make but would explore:
Trade for Kelvin Herrera: In my very first blueprint, I have the Twins trading for Kelvin Herrera. However, I ended up taking it off because there is so much uncertainty there. How is his forearm? He seemed to struggle down the stretch (especially against the Twins). What would it take to get Herrera? On one hand, I would think he would require a pretty good return based on his track record over the years. But he is also a one year rental due $8 million and an injury concern. Would the Royals take a Brandon Kintzler return type prospect plus a Kennys Vargas for him? Or would they aim higher? Could they want to hold onto him to reestablish some of his value and then shop him at the deadline? It is also tough with the Royals being in the division. Overall, I am just way too uncertain about the return he would command, and it would take away $8 million of spending money for the Twins. But hey, they paid Hector Santiago $8 million last season and nobody seemed to care. Bottom line: I would like to see the Twins explore the reliever trade market this offseason, and Herrera could be a candidate if the demand isn’t too high and the Royals are fully ready to rebuild and cut money.
 
Extensions, Extensions, Extensions: I also am pretty unsure on what fair value is on these extensions, but I would explore them on many guys. I found it really interesting the extensions that Seth posted in his offseason blueprint. I remember thinking that I would do every one of those. I don’t think it is realistic that they are able to get them all done. But a doing a couple of them would be nice, specifically because they could extend there window beyond the 4 years they have of team control with there most crucial pieces. Buxton, Sano, and Berrios would be at the top of the list for me in this process. I think Buxton being the top priority would be pretty commonly agreed upon by Twins fans. Berrios is unique because he does have 5 years of team control left, so the deal would likely be for 7 or 8 years, which would be a lot of term for a young pitcher. I would still approach his representatives about it. The next tier would be Kepler, Rosario, and Polanco. Polanco also has 5 years, and I think there is a lot of uncertainty still surrounding him. I don’t think after the next 3 years he is the shortstop anymore, and he may end of being a trade chip somewhere down the road. Rosario has proven to be unreliable at times but an MVP caliber player at other times. We still aren’t sure if Kepler will be more than a platoon type player. So there is certainly risk involved, but I would consider all three of those guys because in order for the Twins to be a championship contender someday, the secondary guys will have to be solid contributors as well. In a separate category I put both Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer. The Twins would be smart to explore both trading Dozier and extending him. If the Twins can get him slightly below market value for 4 more years ($60 million or so), they should. But I also feel comfortable going into the season with him, and extending him the qualifying offer next season knowing that Polanco, Javier, Lewis, (and Gordon if my trade doesn’t work out) are all going to factor into the infield equation someday. In terms of Joe Mauer, maybe they offer him a 2 year team friendly extension, but I might be more inclined to wait on that with Brent Rooker waiting in the wings and Sano’s potentially switch to first base at some point.
 
Trade Questions - Explore the Trade Value on Anyone Not Named Buxton, Sano, or Berrios
- Is there a team that will give up a ton for one year of Brian Dozier?
- Can Nick Gordon be the center of a deal to land an ace? (See above trade)
- Could either Polanco or Rosario be used to upgrade pitching, and then be replaced via free agency?
- Do you sell high on Eduardo Escobar or Kyle Gibson for bullpen help or young pitching?
- Can Robbie Grossman or Kennys Vargas net a lottery ticket pitcher? (See above trade)
- Does Ervin Santana garner a younger, higher ceiling pitcher that is major league ready?
- Are there any prospects that another team values much more than the Twins do?
 
Thank you to anyone who has gotten this far in reading. I’ve been casually working on this blueprint ever since the Twins season ended and have amended it as the early off-season moves have come in. Overall, I think the Twins have a lot of opportunities this offseason and feel more confident than ever that the front office will be active. That doesn’t necessarily mean that they will make a ton of aggressive moves, but I think they will be in the conversation for some guys that the Twins might not have sniffed around in the Terry Ryan regime. It should be a great future, and has been a heck of a turnaround from 12 months ago when I posted a blueprint essentially telling the Twins to tear the whole damn thing down.

With camp officially starting in just a couple of days, more and more players are arriving (Milone, Rosario, Benson just to name a few) thus more and more is going on in the backfields. Infielders/Pitchers could be seen fielding grounders on the half field while pitchers were throwing under Hammond Stadium, this day however I was not pulling myself away from the Sano and Arcia outfield drills and workouts on Field Four. It was a definitely a sight to see, defensive outfield drills followed by batting practice, a little over three hours condensed into less than 20 minutes of videos.
The two slugging outfielders, Arcia and Sano, took to the field around 9am and started off with just some simple long tossing. From 120 feet out Miggy shows off a strong accurate arm but as Arcia keeps backing up and increasing their distance, Sano starts to break out the crow hop early to get the ball to Arcia.
Afterwards, Coach Lepel started rolling balls to the outfielders and having them throw it back to the cutoff man at second. It’s one of the more basic fundamentals that all outfielders know how to do to prevent a hitter from taking an extrabase. From the get go Sano was having obvious difficulties especially when compared to Arcia. Miggy was repeatedly charging and throwing as if he was a third baseman. It got to the point where Coach Lepel called the outfielders in to talk to Sano about his technique and even Arcia gave some advice. They returned to the field, where it was solely Sano working over and over again on the technique until he started showing improvement.
The next drill up was a little more challenging in a roller to the glove side then spin and throw to hit the cutoff man. In this task Miguel performed better which I take as he has done it before as an infielder. Next up flyball over the shoulder, spin and throw.
Then Lepel started throwing flyballs straight on with the two throwing to the cutoff man. Once again a basic fundamental that outfielders know how to do: position yourself with forward motion on a catch. Again Sano had issues often catching the ball behind him. Lastly, Sano, Arcia, and Jorge Fernandez took flyballs from a jugs machine in rightfield with the wind blowing in and gusts of 30 mph. In Leftfield, Eddie Rosario, Adam Brett Walker, and Travis Harrison. In Centerfield, Joe Benson, Tyree Davis, Darin Mastroianni.
 

Other Sano notes: there were numerous times Sano could be see massaging and stretching his throwing arm and was asked a few times by Lepel if he was okay. Sano likes to hit, I counted three times in the hour plus of defensive drills where he asked Lepel when are we hitting. Smartly, Lepel used it as a carrot with Baki (sp?) telling him after this drill, nope after this drill. As anyone can see Sano has ALOT to still LEARN to be ready for the outfield on Opening Day. So this puts to rest that Miguel has been practicing his outfield drills this offseason.
 

Finally, it was Sano’s favorite time, hitting in the cage where he did not disappoint. Lifting a few balls but never clearing the fences with the strong wind. Sano likes to hit so much, he jumped Rosario in the batting order. Talk about a murder’s row of a batting practice lineup: Arcia, Sano, Park, Rosario followed by AB Walker, Harrsion, Buck Britton, Mastroianni. Even with all those power bats, Byung Ho Park was the only one to lift a ball through the 30mph gusts blowing in from RF to take it out of the park.
Notes on Arcia, he looked good in the field and if I hadn’t seen him prior I’d think it was more due to fielding with the extremely raw Sano but Oswaldo has worked hard on his defensive game. Namely that first step and working on his reads. On of my favorite things to watch is while he shags in BP, he’s actually putting forth effort runnings routes. In one instance, a flyball off Britton’s bat, Arcia blazed past Sano and caught the would be gapper.
 

 

 

So I posted this 3 years ago almost to the day. It’s funny to look at some of these theses names and see how wrong I was. But also how some remain true. Still waiting on Buck and Sano to figure it out. Man was I wrong about the bullpen as None of the arms I listed made it except for Rogers. I think we may have a few of the secondary stars in Rosario, Polanco and Kepler. I think Berrios is a 2 and Gibson is a solid 3. Still need another # 2 caliber pitcher ( please be Graterol or Romero) or Berrios to develop into a true ace.
 
The things that needs to happen for the Twins to win a title in the next few years. I break it down into 4 points.
 
1). Sano and Buxton need to emulate the Army and be all they can be.
Both these guys have been at the top of prospect rankings for years. If the Twins are going to win a championship or 2 they have to become the studs they have the talent to be. For Sano this means becoming a prodigious power hitter. Sano needs to become a guy that regularly hits 35 homers and 35 doubles a year. I'm not saying he needs to be like Miggy and bat .330 also. We know he is going to strike out a lot but we will take that as long as we get the power and the patience. Buxton needs to become one of the best CFers in baseball. We know Buck has the tools to be the best defensive center fielder from day one. The bat needs to develop also. He needs to be a .300 hitter with some power and patience. A .300/.350/.475 with 15 homers, 50 steals and 100 plus runs every year. They need to be our Mauer and Morneau, potential MVP candidates year in and year out.
 
2) They need 7 points or less out of top 3 starters in rotation.
I assign points to a starter according to their status as a number 1, 2 or 3 starter. Lower the point the better. The traditional way is for this to have a 1, a 2 and a 3. A true ace or number 1 starter, a very good number 2 and a solid number 3. I think teams like the Royals have shown that you can get by without an ace if you have several 2's and 3's. So out of the group of Gibson, Duffy, Berrios, Gonsalves, Stewart and Thorpe we need to get a true number 1 or at least a couple of 2's. I am a big fan of Kyle Gibson and believe he is already a 3 with a chance to go to a 2 if the SO ratio from the end of last season continues in 2016. I also believe Berrios will be a at least a 3 with a very good chance of being a 2 and at certain times to look like a 1. We need 1 more guy to hit the level of a number 2 starter. I still like Stewart's chances and I'm intrigued by Gonsalves, I really am hoping for Thorpe. If he can recover from TJ surgery and continue on the path he started on he may be able to still reach that level.
 
3). 3 bullpen pieces need to become lights out.
In my post from last week I talked about not wanting to sign overpriced veteran arms. This is the reason why. We need these guys to have room to pitch in the majors. There is a large talented group of bullpen arms who are close to being ready for the big leagues. Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Tonkin, Meyer, Perterson, and a few others from the right side and Melotakis, Rogers, Booser from the left. 3 of these guys need to become lights out shut down relievers. My hope would be that the 3 ends up being Burdi, Melotakis and Chargois. 2 righties and a lefty that all throw 97 plus. A top 5 out of the pen with closer Perkins, May the set up man and then these 3 to pitch the 6th, 7th and eighth looks outstanding.
 
4). 2 additional secondary stars need to develop out of remaining cast
You can't win with 2 stars and then nothing else in your lineup. You have to have depth so they don't just pitch around Buck and Sano. There is a plenty of potential names. Rosario, Kepler, Walker III, Park, Gordon, Polanco and others. We have Plouffe and Dozier already in place. I don't think they're stars but are very solid players but will they still be here in 3 years? Can Rosario build on his rookie year and keep his power stats while developing better patience? If he can truly become an annual 5 by 15 player (homers, triples, doubles, steals and assists) then he doesn't need to get on base at a .330 clip but at least an OBP of .300 is needed. Can Kepler become a big leaguer with stats that approach what he did last year for Chatanooga? Can Gordon become a SS that can hit .300/.350/.400 while playing good defense? Can Park's power translate to MLB and annually hit 25+ homers? We need at least 2 of these guys to develop into borderline all stars.
 
SO that is a lot of good things that need to happen to win a World Series. The nice thing is there are lot of options. In the BP there are 8 or 9 guys that have potential and you just need 3. There are numerous good starting pitchers in the system and we only need 1 or 2 to hit the high end of their potential spectrum. There are quite a few position players who have performed at a very high level in the minors and we just need a coupe to continue that production. I know there is a very high failure rate with prospects, that is why you need to have so many options. I believe there is enough pieces currently in our system for a few of them to become these type of players. If we can roll out in 2018 with 2 potential MVP candidates in Sano and Buxton, a top 3 in the rotation of Number 1 Berrios, Number 2 Thorpe, Number 3 Gibson, borderline all stars in Rosario, Kepler and Gibson and lights out bullpen the Twins will win a World Series in the near future.

Tis the season... well it's not baseball season but fans can still be in the baseball mood. Back in 2010, I wrote a version of this poem that had become a little outdated after half a decade. The Twins had a different manager and GM at the time and the team's biggest offseason move was bringing in Tsuyoshi Nishioka.
 
So here is an update version to help us survive this holiday season. May your holiday be filled with plenty of blessings (and maybe a free agent signing by the Twins).
 

Twas the night before Christmas, when all through Target Field



Not a worker was stirring, for every door had been sealed;


 

The stockings were hung by the dugout with care,



In hopes that a free agent soon would be there;


 

Every fan was nestled all snug in their beds,



While visions of championships danced in their heads;


 

And Terry Ryan in his 'kerchief, and Molitor in a cap,



Seem to be spending the offseason on a long winter's nap;


 

David Price had signed and still no deals had been made,



On many fans minds this problem heavily weighed;


 

When out on the field there arose such a clatter,



Ryan sprang from the bed to see what was the matter;


 

A star from Korea with a bat that could bash,



Left fans hoping that his contract wouldn't be too brash;


 

Target Field lay under the new fallen snow,



While the rest of the offseason moves seemed to come slow;


 

When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,



Thoughts of new pitcher would let the fans cheer;


 

Molitor wants a new team with power in their swings,



With hopes that it will result in multiple rings.


 

Hunter retired after much fortune and fame,



A title in the Central will be hard to reclaim;


 

The team is young and expectations are high,



2015 was great but now it's time to say goodbye ;


 

There are roster quandaries as youth starts to take hold,



For Twins Territory, the losing was getting old;


 

With the new year, changes will come,



It is still hard not to feel glum;


 

A star pitcher would make the fans clamor,



Or a bullpen pitcher who can drop the hammer;


 

The wish list is long for fans this holiday season,



Trying to overcome the Royals is definitely the reason;


 

Fans want a plan so they can be merry,



Because making no moves seems all too scary;


 

A Christmas signing wrapped in a bow,



Could make up for this excess of snow.


 

Back to sleep I will go with the hope of a good dream,



For the Twins will continue to be our baseball team;


 

There is still plenty of offseason to make things right,



Until then "Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night."

I spent Thanksgiving in New York City, visiting my son and his fiancée and seeing some sites. No, I didn't find Dave W, I guess I didn't look. Anyway, I did attend my first, and probably only, Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. We arrived early and found a place to stand across from Fox News. We saw the parades, floats, minor celebrities and Santa.
 
A women standing next to me asked me if I was from Minnesota, since I was wearing a coat that said "Mayo Clinic" on it. She said that she had grown up in Hinckley and then moved to Scottsdale. We chatted for awhile and finally starting talking about children. She said that her son played for the Twins. I said "oh really" and shared with her that i was a Twins fan for life and that I often contributed to Twins Daily. She said her son was Aaron Slegers and that he was the tallest player in the Twins system--6'10". I remembered Slegers, but couldn't recall which Big Ten school he attended. She said he went to Indiana and that his catcher was Kyle Schwarber, who has made a name for himself.
 
Aaron made it to AA in 2015, after having a nice season at High A Fort Myers. I really don't know if how highly regarded he is, but it does highlight the many players in the minors--how hard they work and the odds against any but the premium prospects to make it to the majors. After a 160 inning regular season, Aaron Slegers works out every day, but hasn't done any throwing and won't for a while.
 
There were more events and a great turkey dinner put on by my son and his fiancée, but it is cool to have met someone with a connection to the Twins a long way from home.

Today the posts have mostly been negative with three young players optioned to AAA. Many have pointed out that the rebuilding Twins won't have a single rookie from their system on the 25-man roster going north. The average age of the team won't be considerably different.
 
Despite all of this, I'm optimistic that the Twins will improve. The next wave is very close and they could provide a real boost. I have predicted/advocated for Hicks to be demoted since the end of the regular season and while Schafer/Robinson isn't optimum, the better of Hicks or Rosario should be ready before mid-season.
 
The pitching rotation will be better. Any regression from Hughes should be matched by regression for Nolasco. I think Gibson will be really good and Santana will be the best #4 starter the Twins have had since the 90s. I hope the leash isn't long for the bullpen.
 
I have predicted 85 wins, really against all odds. I think there is enough talent there to improve even though the division will be tough. It will take filling of inside straights and rolling sevens, but I'm sticking with 85 wins, with or without Meyer, May, Rosario or Hicks and a bunch of relievers.

Heading out this morning. Yesterday, there was minor league action plus BP for position players who didn't make the trip to Clearwater. Ervin Santana pitched the first four innings of the Triple A game and was unspectacular, one run in four innings-probably a half dozen strikeouts. It was home run derby on the AA side with Twins' farmhands connecting for five long balls.
 
I finally met TD's own Halsey Hall and a couple of lurkers, whose names will be withheld to protect them. Nice people all around. I truly enjoyed my time in Florida. Needless to say, it has gone fast. I will write a longer summary tomorrow unless I spend too much time shoveling snow!

I meant to write up these notes last night and forgot. No deep insights here, just my jottings from a day under the sun at Hammond Field.
 
I arrived at 9:10, too late to get free parking on a game day. Cheapskate fans of minor league spring ball, take note!
 
I was approached by a reporter from a Naples newspaper, who was looking to interview average fans. I had initially mentioned my tenuous "affiliation" with TD (thinking he might be Nick Nelson), and apparently that made me way too official sounding for him, so he moved on. LOL.
 
The players were only just starting their warmups, and I saw maybe one other "civilian" like myself checking things out, to begin with. More started showing up soon, of course.
 
This just in: Aaron Slegers is tall. He looks like a weed that the lawn mower missed, when standing amongst his fellow pitchers listening to a coach.
 
Met up with fellow TDer Stringer Bell, and his brother. Great guys. We hung out together, off and on, most of the rest of the day.
 
I watched the first hour of the two minor league games versus the Rays, back and forth between the adjacent fields. In the nominal AAA game, "A Rodriguez" (I didn't know A-Rod had joined the Twins organization!) scored a hit to right, and the players who had the game off behind the screen near me were hooting that this was his first time to hit to the opposite field, ever.
 
One of these players was eating some berries, and another piped up with a crack about Hingle McCringleberry. A Key and Peele fan, apparently. No "Berrios" joke, considering he was sitting right there with us, so I guess it's too far from his actual pronunciation which I haven't completely mastered yet. "Bay-REE-ose"? Either that or for some reason they don't want to kid him that way, or Jose had duties charting pitches and maybe shouldn't have been disturbed.
 
I already mentioned in a forum thread last night that AA pitching coach R. C. Lichtenstein asked the Rays kid who was holding the radar gun behind the plate, "was that a changeup?", while prospect Dylan Floro was on the mound. "No, fastball," was the reply. Hope Floro didn't overhear. Ouch. Very ouch.
 
In the other game, Sano hit a very long homer on the first pitch he saw. It drew appropriate oohs and aahs from the spectating players. His ability is certainly respected. The players know who's who - see my above comment about A-Rod, and when Max Murphy hit a homer the previous day I watched, one of the guys confirmed his identity for me and added "he can hit".
 
Stuart Turner threw out a would-be base stealer by about two miles. I know there's a lot more to catching than that, things I can't begin to judge on my own, but it confirms for me the good things I've read about his D.
 
I finally walked over to the big leaguers' game and made use of my cheap seat ticket. Watched the middle part of the game with Stringer and his brother, and got to witness an error by Dozier and later a bobble by Nunez that he still converted to an out. Guess which infielder I gave a pass on that to, and which one I griped about. It wasn't a very compelling game in the late stages, so after my companions left I watched an inning more, then left with the score 3-2 going into the bottom of the ninth. Apparently I didn't miss much.
 
That's it for now. Off to the park now for another go-round.

Spring training is meaningful. Jobs are won and lost as a result. They should be.
 
Statistics from spring training exhibition games have no meaning. They should not be kept, reported or used in support of roster making decisions. I hope the Twins don't keep them or use them. Not only is the data in a sample too small to be meaningful but the level of competition varies.
 
It is critical the Twins get the roster right though. They need to rely on the skill of the coaching staff and other staff in spring training to get the best 25. They need to be able to assess whether Milone, Pelfrey and Nolasco are healthy and throwing the ball like they did when they were more successful. Suzuki can help assess Milone also. They have to make the correct assessment on these three and have plenty of time and plenty of eyes to get it right. They need to assess whether Hicks has fundamentally changed his approach and possibly swing. They need to assess whether Schafer's numbers the last two months were result of a fundamental change or simply variation due to sample.
 
Last year's staff should have seen a fundamental change in Kubel's bat speed. They should have seen Bartlett's inability to play outfield. They should have seen the need for Pinto to catch every day in the minors. They should have seen enough from Worley to retain him in AAA once he cleared waivers and was off the 40.
 
The Twins can't afford to miss again this year. They need the skill to correctly assess the pitching and bring the best 12 north. They need to be right on Hicks and Pinto and put them in a role where they will best help the team win games.
 
Spring training is critical to the Twins this year. Let's just hope they ignore the numbers and rely on their eyes. Let's hope the new Twins staff is more skilled than last year's staff.
 
Spring training is meaningful. Spring training stats are not. Let's not use them.

I will be at spring training for the fourth straight year. I have watched three straight non-contending teams gear up for a disappointing regular season. I have seen impressive individual performances that didn't stand up to regular season pressures. I have seen guys showing obvious potential take a step from prospect to established player and others not be able to establish themselves. I have seen comments that seem to espouse an open competition for almost every spot on the roster and also have seen arguments that spring training means either very little or nothing at all.
 
I think spring training means different things to different players. Established players are there to get in shape for the grind of a 162 game season and perhaps work on a new skill or weakness. Some guys are just trying to make a good impression, so that if a vacancy occurs or there is a chance for a role player with a specific skill, they have the confidence of the field staff. Finally, some are competing for roster spots or places in the rotation. Here's my take on each member of the 40-man roster:
 
Established veterans: All of these guys have a place guaranteed on the Opening Day roster and are all but certain in their role going into the season. Spring Training is a time for them to get ready for the season ahead, with no stress about making the club or getting opportunities to contribute. Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, Ervin Santana, Glen Perkins, Brian Duensing, Casey Fien, Kurt Suzuki, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, Oswaldo Arcia, and Torii Hunter. That is almost half of the spots on the Opening Day Roster.
 
Young players looking to establish themselves: Players that may have been with the team for most of 2014, but haven't performed well enough long enough to be sure things. Caleb Thielbar, Kyle Gibson, Kennys Vargas, Danny Santana.
 
Players looking to expand or enlarge their role: Guys penciled in for utility roles or perhaps a pitcher looking for a bigger role in games. Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nuñez, Jordan Schafer, Tim Stauffer and perhaps Josmil Pinto.
 
Role players making a case: LOOGy and 3rd catchers hoping that their particular skill will get them a recall at some point. Aaron Thompson, Logan Darnell, and Chris Herrmann.
 
Competitors for bullpen, rotation and center field: These guys could win a spot on the team going north or be sent out to the minors. It largely depends on how they, and the guys they are competing with, perform during spring training. JR Graham, Trevor May, Alex Meyer, Mike Pelfrey, Tommy Milone, Lester Oliveros, Michael Tonkin, Aaron Hicks, and perhaps Eddie Rosario.
 
No chance to make the roster, plenty of chance to impress: AJ Achter, Stephen Pryor, Jason Wheeler, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, and perhaps Eddie Rosario.

I have followed the Twins since they moved to Minnesota from DC. In the early days, the Twins excelled in hitting home runs. They had plenty of power at many positions led by perennial home run king Harmon Killebrew, who led the league in homers six times. However, since Mr. Nixon said "I am not a crook" (and Harmon declined), the Twins have had a severe power shortage. In the forty-plus years since 1973, the Twins have outhomered their opponents in only three seasons and by narrow margins.
 
The 2014 Twins scored a lot of runs, but would have been an elite offensive club if they had hit more long balls. What is exciting is the promise that in the future they will have the players to turn around games with one swing. Oswaldo Arcia hit 20 homers in just 400 plate appearances last season. If his homer rate stays unchanged, he would hit 30 in a full season with 600+ PAs. Kennys Vargas hit nine homers in an extended trial late in the season. Again, with full-time plate appearances, that total should be in the mid-twenties for a full season. Add top prospect Miguel Sano, who homered 35 times in less than 500 PAs in his last minor league season (in pitcher-friendly and homer-averse leagues), and the Twins have a prospective middle of the order cluster that could easily hit 90 or more homers. Sano, Arcia and Vargas are all young and would figure to increase their power numbers.
 
I haven't mentioned yet the Twins leader in home runs the last two years--Brian Dozier. He brings significantly above average power to a position that the Twins traditionally have filled with slap hitters (his last two seasons both set records for home runs by a Twins second baseman). Beyond that, current Twins backup catcher Josmil Pinto would also profile to hit a lot of homers with full-time plate appearances.
 
Whenever Sano arrives, the Twins would figure to have above-average home run production. I expect that the Twins will close the gap in long balls next year and perhaps out-homer their oppontents for the first time in more than a decade. An increase in power might cover regression in other areas.