Bob Sacamento

Well its official the Twins pull out https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/02/twins-pull-out-of-mookie-betts-trade.html

It's arguable between the two, Verdugo's hit tool and stroke are better while Larnach has the advantage in power while they both have plus advanced approaches at the plate. The dividing point between the two is Verdugo runs better routes in the outfield, can play center, and has a better arm. The comps that Verdugo gets frequently are Andrew Benintendi and Nick Markakis.

The Dodgers can easily walk this back and be fine, they already are the favorites in the NL West. They are eating half of Price's contract for three years all to rent Betts for a year because they're likely not resigning him. This is looking like chicken between the Twins and Red Sox at this point, Maeda immediately makes the Twins viable and gives them a veteran arm with playoff experience who can swing easily as a SP or high leverage RP. My bet is the Twins throw a 10-20# prospect to get this done. Baseball America did a breakdown of Graterol and guys like him (young pitchers with questions either of health, relief or provenness #55-65) in the #60 overall top 100 spot from 2010-2017 and it was a pretty impressive list: Sonny Gray Marcus Stroman Drew Pomeranz Eduardo Rodriguez Zach Wheeler Raisel Igeliesas Zach Britton But then you also had Taylor Guerreri Brody Colvin AJ Cole Aaron Blair Braden Shipley Zach Lee

Yep won't be shocked to see Balazovic or Duran subbed in instead if this is the hang up.

Here's zips projections on Maeda and Graterol in the future: ZiPS Projection – Kenta Maeda Year W L ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ WAR 2020 10 8 4.25 34 24 135.7 122 19 50 156 105 2.1 2021 9 7 4.29 31 22 121.7 110 18 45 140 104 1.8 2022 9 7 4.37 30 22 119.3 109 18 45 137 102 1.7 2023 8 7 4.38 28 20 111.0 101 17 42 127 102 1.6 [table] ZiPS Projection – Brusdar Graterol Year W L ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+ WAR 2020 3 2 3.77 51 0 45.3 41 4 20 46 121 0.5 2021 11 8 4.32 26 26 118.7 117 14 49 104 106 2.0 2022 10 8 4.28 26 26 115.7 113 13 47 103 107 2.0 2023 9 7 4.29 23 23 105.0 103 12 43 94 107 1.8 2024 9 7 4.24 22 22 102.0 99 12 41 93 108 1.8 2025 9 7 4.21 22 22 98.3 94 12 40 91 108 1.8 [/table] Basically Maeda for this year but Graterol for the future and those numbers are conservative

Twins paid a high price to get a mid rotation arm or possible swingman/multiinning reliever whom the Dodgers have limited his innings the last three seasons on purpose. The argument has been his effectiveness wains deeper in games or in season OR the other reason his contract is based off of appearances and usage: 16-23: $3M annually annual roster bonus: $150,000 for making Opening Day roster $6.5M annually in performance bonuses based on games started: $1M each 15, 20 GS. $1.5M each for 25, 30, 32 GS $3.5M annually in performance bonuses based on innings pitched: $250,000 each for 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 190 IP. $750,000 200 IP assignment bonus: $1M with each trade becomes a free agent at contract’s end perks: jersey No. 18. Four round-trip business-class airline tickets between Japan and LA annually. Interpreter. Travel expenses, accommodations, visa costs for a player support staff member Personally I worry more for Graterol as the Red Sox pitching development is less to be desired, and I think this more or less makes him a pen arm in the future. This is also what happens in Minnesota when you can't get a top free agent pitcher to sign with you.

Yeah I can't see the Twins getting Stroman without giving up the likes of Graterol AND a Rooker/Larnach type and then whatever it costs to get Giles. Stroman costs 6.3M this year and is arbitration eligible next year so he's still "cheap" in terms of his talent on the free agency market. Giles is now arguably the best relief option left.

Seemed appropriate for here, but MLB.com just posted "7 Trades that make perfect sense", here's what they say about the Twins Which seems about the right cost and return, although I'd prefer to keep Balazovic if I were the Twins

Not getting Kimbrel is understandable due to the length of the contract the Cubs gave him but to not get Keuchel now that has got to sting a little. But the Twins honestly don't need either of them to win the division, they're something like a 97-98% lock to win the AL Central at this point. So is it logical to spend so much money on player that's going to matter for one maybe two games in the playoffs? Apparently Falvey doesn't think so and I can't really fault him for it either as the playoffs are a crapshoot at best. At this point, in my opinion, if Falvey trades for any starter, I think he'll go after someone who has control or an option for the next year which will cost a couple of higher end prospects (think something like Graterol and Rooker for Stroman who's cheap next year in arbitration after earning 6.3M in 2019). I've got a hard time seeing him give up a Top 5-15ish prospect for a Will Smith/Tony Watson type player.

Baseball America on Casey Legumina

Well the Cubs are draft a pitcher philosophy of late (especially this draft so far), but very little to show for it in the system. So buying and trading for SP is vital, of course it doesn't help when you trade Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease for Quintana, and spend heavy on Chatwood and Darvish. If the Twins can keep drafting and finding those OF and SS it makes trading them so much easier.

As a Cubs fan, some offices are just better at finding and developing offensive players than pitchers. As far as drafting a college SS, it means little, often they'll transition to 2B/3B/CF

Baseball America on Anthony Prato

Baseball America on Sawyer Gipson:

Baseball America on Will Holland:

What Baseball America says about Seth Gray

Here's what Baseball America had to say about Steer:

What Baseball America has to say about Matt Canterino RHP:

If the Twins two top picks reach their power potential, you're talking 30 homers each

What Baseball America has to say about Matt Wallner:

I thought the same exact thing!! I'm a big fan of Carroll and Malone but I've seen them in person at the WWBA.

Personally, I would have gone with Carroll at this point but the power potential of Cavaco is very tempting and he's one of those guys with all the tools in the world...

What Baseball America had to say about Cavaco:

I've seen Witt the last three years down in WWBA in Jupiter, he's continually improved most of his facets. He has above average power but his contact skills are just average and his approach at the plate is suspect at times. His arm is strong, not Rece Hinds strong but it's a weapon. Defensively he needs alot of work at SS and refinement but gets good marks for his soft hands and nice tags. I'm not completely sold on him staying at SS but he's gonna stick in the infield at 2B or 3B. Carroll has one of the sweetest swings in the draft and one of the best contact bats as well as an advanced approach at the plate. His power is average right now but has the ability to grow to above average down the road. Defensively, he's athletic with a plus arm and runs good routes. His comp is Andrew Benintendi

Romero developed a changeup, which is what Brus has been working on the past year. But I'd honestly say two years ago, both would be destined for the backend of the pen; things look much more promising when you can have three average or plus pitches