Otto von Ballpark

I have not seen Merrifield say that he knew he was going to be out before sliding. How could he? He couldn’t see the throw — but he knew it could be close because it was a shallow fly. He also knew how Sánchez normally sets up on such plays, and saw him do it again early in this play — and he realized that sliding straight in would give him the option to appeal if he was out. (Of course, a straight line is also the shortest path on a tag play from third too, as opposed to other plays where the runner is rounding the bag.) Merrifield quotes are here: https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/use-of-controversial-slide-rule-inspires-heated-takes-from-blue-jays-twins/sn-amp/

Advance the video a few more frames, and you will see that the tag isn’t applied until Merrifield’s foot is pushing into Sánchez’s leg (which is on home plate). What’s the significance of the throw beating the runner if the tag doesn’t (without an assist from the leg)? I know the plate blocking rule has an exception for a throw “clearly” beating the runner, but I don’t think this is what they had in mind (where the throw beats him but the tag is very close, at best). I think that exception means the catcher can be set up in a blocking position as long as he receives the throw when the runner is only halfway home or whatever. This is too close for a “clearly” exception to be applied. For the record, I think it was a pretty good throw!

Basically, it seems to come down to, the catcher's body shouldn't prevent the runner from touching the plate before the tag on a close play. If the throw had come just a hair sooner, that might have been enough for the tag (not just the throw) to beat the runner without the aid of Sánchez's leg, and we'd get the benefit of the doubt from our replay overlords. Alternatively, if Sánchez hadn't initially set up to receive the throw in foul territory, Merrifield probably takes a different slide path, or at least his chosen slide path couldn't be blamed on Sánchez blocking before he had the ball?

If not for Sánchez's leg, Merrifield would have touched the plate safely before he could be tagged out. That's not really "beating the runner", is it? Or if it is, it seems akin to a high/wide throw to first "beating the runner" but requiring the first baseman to leave the bag to catch it, allowing the runner to reach safely.

The Pirates/Orioles yesterday had an out call overturned, just like the Twins call: Video: Greg Allen safe after challenge Unless you are referring to a different play?

You can always release a player on the IL. You just can’t option, waive, or outright such a player (during the season).

That's an interesting question! I don't have an easy source for %, so I pulled up LHH vs LHP in the Fangraphs Splits Leaderboard. Right now, Nick Gordon is 82nd in MLB in total number of such PA, listed right between Harold Castro and Raimel Tapia -- both of whom have more total PA than Gordon too, so their % against LHP is lower than Gordon's. Just eyeballing the list, I found Ji-Man Choi, David Peralta, Jesús Sánchez, and Seth Brown all with more total PA and lower percentages. I don't know who's the lowest, but Gavin Sheets has 259 total PA and only 9.7% against LHP.

It is much easier to do with the 3-batter minimum rule. It’s generally not worth it for teams to try to get a lefty pitcher in to face a guy like Gordon anymore (unless he is batting between other lefties).

“Almost automatic out” Luis Arraez went 3-for-5 in the very next game. So do you have any predictive power about these “moments”, or do you just learn about them after they’ve started or ended? And Tim Beckham’s “hot bat from St. Paul” was 2-for-13 with 5 Ks, and Cave’s hot bat actually struck out. Was that a triumph of “moment” or “reputation”? Look, the Jays were likely to lose just like every other team heading into the bottom of the 10th tied. There is no managerial malpractice in pitching to Cave or Beckham in that situation.

It is not taboo. There have been 80 intentional walks in MLB extra innings this year, at ten times the frequency of the next highest inning. It’s just not a strategy chosen in every game. I don’t think you are considering strikeouts enough here. Strikeouts are extremely common in the modern game, much more than double plays. And strikeouts rarely allow base runners to advance and virtually never allow the batter to reach. On average, Jake Cave strikes out in a third of his plate appearances, with Tim Beckham not far behind — and Jordan Romano strikes out more batters than an average pitcher. There is a huge cost to passing up those opportunities hoping for a much rarer double play. And the Jays strategy did not require perfect execution to work, as you claim. Batters fail to reach base on a strikeout, what, 99.9% of the time? That was a massive fluke. Judging the soundness of their strategy on that outcome is like judging the soundness of an intentional walk based on the pitcher committing a balk right after it. Once a fluke event like that happened, they were going to be between a rock and a hard place regardless of their strategy choice.

FanGraphs has it: FanGraphs Splits Leaderboard, Extra Innings Only

You want to talk margin of error? If you intentionally walk the 7 hitter, and you fail to turn a double play, then the top of the order will come to the plate in the inning, no matter what else you do. That means facing the league leader in batting average in Luis Arraez, rather than Jake Cave. Once Cave reaches, then you're potentially facing Carlos Correa instead of Tim Beckham. There's no easy way here. The Jays choice is entirely defensible.

I think the W-L stat for pitchers was already pretty outdated, even before the new extra inning rule.

Further illustrating that maybe the Jays took the right strategy by pitching to Cave and Beckham in the 10th, just slightly bungled the execution:

Their runs may not mean anything, but their outs surely do. The Jays still needed 3 outs before the runner crossed home, and they viewed Cave and Beckham as good chances for those outs — and they were very nearly right, as neither Cave nor Beckham got the ball out of the infield.

Michael Helman is hitting better than Palacios, is also stealing bases, and plays all over the field. Was Rule 5 eligible last winter, and will be again this winter.

You might be right! Although since Cotton is out of options, the bigger hurdle is generally the 26-man roster spot.

Jharel Cotton and Aaron Sanchez have both cleared waivers and accepted outright assignments to AAA St. Paul, so they'll remain in the Twins system (just off the 40-man roster).

Looks like the Rockies are 9th in waiver priority, so the 8 worst teams in the league all passed on Lamet. His $4.78 million salary probably didn't help, and the Rockies could be on the hook for a similar figure next year unless they non-tender him (at which point, he'd be available to anyone with no guaranteed salary attached).

Tyler Duffey was waived seven years to the day after his major league debut. His Twins career was bookended by losses to the Blue Jays. The 2015 Twins were surprise contenders, heading to Toronto in early August in possession of a wild-card spot. But the familiar refrain of "needs more pitching" was prevalent, especially as lefty starter Tommy Milone was placed on the disabled list. Most Twins fans expected the highly regarded José Berríos to get the call. After all, Berríos had been a first round draft pick, was a consensus top 50 prospect (and rising), and was now pitching effectively at the minors' top level. But the Twins surprised many observers when they selected the contract of fellow 2012 draftee and AAA starter Tyler Duffey instead. Duffey had been selected with less fanfare in the 5th round, as a college reliever. Converted to starting in professional baseball, he had steadily if unspectacularly moved up the minor league ladder himself, and was putting together his best pro season in 2015 when he got the call. With a devastating curveball, he was striking out 8 batters per 9 innings, back when that was still an impressive figure -- MLB average for starting pitchers was only 7.4 that year. Paired with only 1 home run allowed across 132 innings pitched, Duffey was an intriguing option for a major league start -- if he could get there. The Twins were heading to Toronto, and Duffey didn't have his passport with him in AAA Rochester. From the August 4, 2015 Star Tribune: The Twins were already fading, having dropped the first two games of the series. Duffey's debut on August 5th failed to reverse the trend: a pair of home runs by future Twin Josh Donaldson and José Bautista, more dingers than Duffey had allowed all season, led to 6 runs and a very early exit after just two innings, as the Twins lost again. From the next day's Star Tribune: Toronto would complete the four-game sweep the following day, Duffey was optioned back to AAA, and Twins fans resumed their Berríos watch. But ten days later, it was Duffey returning to the majors, not Berríos, and what a return it was -- from August 15 through the end of the 2015 season, Duffey made 9 starts, and the Twins won 8 of them to hang in the wild card race until the season's final week. With that curveball making Twins fans reminisce about Bert Blyleven, Duffey had a 2.25 ERA in that stretch, backed by an 8.4 K/9 and only 2 home runs allowed in 56 innings. Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan, USA Today Alas, Blyleven rode his curveball for 22 seasons; Duffey lasted just one more as a starter. He earned a place in the 2016 opening day rotation, but the results didn't transfer with a 6.43 ERA and 25 home runs allowed in 133 innings. Berríos was even worse in 2016, so it appears the Twins made the right call in August 2015. A conversion to relief followed for Duffey, including outstanding seasons in 2019-2020, but that track record wasn't enough to save his job today. Last night, the same Blue Jays franchise ended Duffey's Twins career with another defeat, and another home run -- this time to Vlad Guerrero Jr., a fresh 16-year-old amateur signee when Duffey debuted back in 2015. What's next for Tyler Duffey? He will likely join another bullpen, maybe a contender's, and may even rediscover some magic. But Twins fans will always have the memories of his magic 2015 pennant race curveball.

Wouldn't Lamet be a devil that we don't know too? In any case, Lamet can't be traded now, so the only way to get him would be to claim him while the 17 teams ahead of us in waiver priority pass. Judging by the numbers, Lamet also may be more of a longer-term project than a shorter-term boost -- how much do you want him to try working out his issues in a major league pennant race? Especially after SD and MIL both declined that opportunity. (Lamet just passed 5 years service time, so he can decline any minor league option now.)

Boston released JBJ, rather than DFA him. So he's a free agent right now.

FWIW, Kepler may be activated as soon as tomorrow (Saturday):

Yup. Contreras and Celestino (and Cave) can be freely optioned to AAA, while JBJ cannot. So yes, you could DFA Contreras and sign JBJ. But then when Kepler returns in a few days, you'd have no choice but to option Celestino or Cave, even though Cave is off to a good start and Celestino has performed better (at the plate and overall) than JBJ over 2021-2022. I'm open to DFA'ing Contreras to upgrade the roster, of course, but I don't see the point in doing it right now for JBJ.

The hecker's wish came true as deadline day brought three new arms to the first place Twins, and there was much rejoicing in the TD forums. Looking past the week's breaking news and transactions, the community provided some analysis and thought-provoking questions about what's next for our Twins. It took many centuries of human evolution for hecklers to perfect their rhymes; fortunately, the evolution of fan opinion is much faster. Witness My evolving opinion on where the Twins stand by @Mike Sixel, taking a measured approach to the trade deadline and reassessing in its aftermath. The new pitchers join an impressive group of batters (not broken ladders). @Rosterman ponders the optimal arrangement of our offensive riches in What Should Be The Twins Perfect Line-up? Just about any arrangement looks good when you have the third best offense in the American League. In addition to new pitchers, we also added a new catcher in Sandy Leon, although starter Gary Sánchez isn't a belly scratcher either: @Brock Beauchamp reports that the pending free agent is starting to grow roots in Minnesota by creating a scholarship for local minorities. While the trade deadline has passed, the Twins may not be done remaking their pitching staff. @strumdatjag wants an update on potential internal upgrades in What is Current Status of Maeda and Alcala? Kenta has playoff relief experience, and not long ago Jorge was our most promising bullpen arm, so they could still be significant contributors. Finally, @Hosken Bombo Disco honors Vin Scully, 1927-2022. The legendary announcer's influence reached far beyond the Dodgers, as Scully called Bob Allison's catch in the 1965 World Series, the national radio broadcast of Gene Larkin's hit to end the 1991 World Series, and many more iconic moments. What iconic moments are still in store for the 2022 Twins? Share your take or ask your question in the forums. View full article