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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    In this case, though, the shorthand felt so obvious. It seemed pretty clear that the poster was NOT hiding/ignoring earlier WAR totals, just using the 2014 ones because they were pretty representative of earlier ones (if you have any familiarity with Dunn, and Twins fans should, he's been responsible for great gusts of wind across our state the past few years ).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Feel free to expand the sample, it will not tell you that Dunn is any better. The poster was quite obviously using shorthand, not "fundamentally misusing the stat."
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Radke was almost a league-average starter out of the gate at age 22, and then was 8th in the league in IP and 13th in ERA+ his second year. Viola is the better example. Looking it up, Johan Santana actually wasn't that awful out of the pen in his Rule 5 season either. Bad peripherals, but his run prevention was pretty much on par with Swarzak's bullpen work last year, and close to Pressly's from 2 years ago. Santana's spot starts really dragged his numbers down, however.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    How so? It was short, I suppose, but everyone and his dog knows the Dunn has been a pretty poor player lately. If you want to be more verbose, the original poster's Dunn vs LaRoche comparison wasn't really accurate either -- LaRoche will likely be replacing Abreu at first base, with Abreu replacing Dunn at DH.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Hunter's Plan B was Jacque Jones (and vice versa). Similar to Gomez/Span -- two young guys for one spot (or one could shift to a corner). Puckett was Plan B to Darrell Brown.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Because large chunks of the rest of their roster sucked? Despite similar records, I think the 2014 White Sox were definitely more top-heavy in terms of talent than the 2014 Twins (especially on the offensive side). Could be a good thing (stars already in place) or a bad thing (more likely to be devastated by a small number of injuries) going into 2015, depending on how you look at it. But in any case, the 2015 White Sox didn't really have the option of hoping for steady improvements from the 2014 club -- for the most part, the good players were already great, the bad players were already bad. Nor could they expect much immediate help from the minors. Nor could they expect to add one key superstar to lift them up. They needed a large quantity of decent talent to shore up various parts of their roster if they wanted a chance at serious contention in 2015, and their prime currency to acquire that talent was available payroll over the next 1-4 seasons (plus their protected 1st round pick in 2015).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, generally. Actually a few of those guys WERE backup plans for someone else, or played alongside their backup plans. Clearing the deck in the offseason for a guy coming out of AA is pretty rare -- I think only Mauer has achieved that in addition to Hicks in recent Twins memory.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    The White Sox basically have 4 studs at their peak right now, and all controlled relatively cheaply for the next 4-6 seasons. Prior to their recent signings, they also had less guaranteed money committed in the future (mostly not having Mauer, but also Nolasco's deal is longer than Danks', no contract correlating to Perkins/Suzuki, etc.). They should be more aggressive trying to win immediately.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Semien is almost universally considered not a MLB caliber SS, perhaps not even a 2B. On their list of offseason moves, the trade is definitely closer to murky territory than the FA signings -- hinges a lot on their judgement of Semien, obviously, so the verdict is far from in. Still, getting Samardzija for something less than Addison Russell is not on its face a bad deal or a bad risk for this team. Also, while they get the rental benefits right now at minimum, there is still further value they could get from Samardzija: extension discount in money or years, deadline trade or 2016 comp pick, long-term deal that starts 1 year earlier than if they waited for him in FA, long-term deal for pitcher with less mileage on his arm, etc. Again, good move/risk for the White Sox does not necessarily mean good move/risk for the Twins.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I've reconsidered. Mods, go ahead and move the thread if you so desire. Or just lock this one and link here: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/16089-white-sox-add-laroche-duke-and-now-maybe-the-shark/ Dang you all for making me visit another forum!
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    First of all, reports that the are interested in extending Samardzija are pretty generic and premature right now. Who says they aren't just doing their due diligence, looking for a possible discount, etc.? Not saying it won't happen, but let's just wait to judge it when it happens. Right now, they gave up a package of not really impressive prospects for him -- not sure how that's a "buy high" compared to the A's who gave up a top 10 MLB prospect for him just a few months ago. Lastly, I agree that I don't think Samardzija would necessarily have been a good play for the 2015 Twins. But that's not to say it wasn't a good move for the 2015 White Sox.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    That $52.5 mil to next year's payroll added 5 players. The $130 mil total commitment added 13 player seasons. Neither seems particularly unreasonable, especially considering their expirations (as well as those of Ramirez and Danks already under contract) are staggered over the next 4 seasons. As to your specific objections: 1) Bullpen and 1B may be the easiest positions to develop outside free agency, but what do you if you don't have internal bullpen or platoon pieces? Claim Chris Parmelee? Do nothing? Both of these spots are also highly dependent on handedness, making them harder to address on short notice (as opposed to the Twins just needing serviceable starters). 2) Cabrera just turned 30 years old, Robertson has yet to turn 30, and each has a solid 4 season run under his belt. I am not sure what kind of Grecian ideal of track record you are holding for them. Also, their "buy high" of Cabrera was for about 60% of the years/money that MLBTR forecasted for him. Duke I will grant has a short track record, but he also has a pretty trivial contract (3/15) by modern MLB standards. 3) Feels like you are adding years here, or implying the deals are longer than they really are? Cabrera is signed for his age 30-32 seasons, Robertson 30-33. Duke will be 32-34 but he's a lefty reliever. LaRoche is older but only signed for 2 years (35-36). Samardzija is not quite 30 yet. Again, if you feel they could have spent this money better, saying each player/contract isn't perfect is hardly valid evidence of that claim. It seems like your approach of waiting to drive harder bargains would have left a lot more uncertainty at these spots in the next few seasons, in return for lower short-term payroll obligations. That does not appear to be an obviously good trade-off, especially with 4 star level peak performers cheaply under contract right now (Abreu, Eaton, Sale, Quintana).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    A site admin started the thread here, so I don't really know that moving it is necessary. Also, it's the offseason. We've had a lot of non-Twins discussions going, especially the past week (winter meetings). I say let the thread die a natural death here, rather than sentence it to death in the "MLB Baseball" forum.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Back to the original article.... Obviously cheap prospects panning out is ideal, but it is pretty unlikely to create a whole starting staff like that. Even the 2001-2006 Twins relied a lot on Radke, who was no longer inexpensive at that point; likewise, the 2009-2011 Twins relied on Pavano. Did those signings really represent a deviation from the "blueprint" or just reality? I think paying market rates for a quality veteran starter is a lot more common and necessary than TR thinks it is.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Plouffe and Dozier just posted career-high OPS+/wRC+ figures at age 28 and 27, respectively, which were already marked improvements over their previous 1-2 seasons. I don't see how further improvement is likely for either of them -- possible, certainly, but not probable. They should probably be in your "push" category. The shape of their production might change, as you noted with your Dozier parenthetical, but
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think anyone here is making that argument, at least not recently in the discussion. The claim being debated is tobi's "I think they [the White Sox] could have spent that money in a smarter fashion." I and others frankly admitted these moves wouldn't make sense for the Twins. But that doesn't mean that in total they are bad moves, or notably sub-optimal moves, for the White Sox.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I am only going to say this once more: B-Ref dWAR includes the positional adjustment. Look at Rfield instead. LaRoche was exactly a league average defensive 1B last year -- the negative part of his dWAR is simply the WAR penalty applied to all first basemen.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    First of all, you keep assuming a Samardzija extension where none has been made so far. Second, please tell me how they get multiple "stars" at similar cost (years/dollars/players) that will make their team notably better.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    If your biggest issues with their moves are "They could have had Butler instead of LaRoche", "Zach Duke used to be a mediocre starter", "They might give a bad contract to Samardzija later", and "Shane Victorino got injured at age 33" (one year beyond Cabrera's contract), I think you're picking nits. Nobody says they got perfect players, or even made perfect moves, but they've spent ~$40 mil for 2015 about as well as they could have so far, if you ask me. Obviously could change if they give a bad contract to Samardzija, or if they don't adequately address their remaining positions of need.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Would be curious to hear how you think the White Sox could have better spent ~$40 mil for 2015.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry, didn't mean it to sound like I was comparing Cabrera and Hunter. Just a point of reference for the defensive stats, and the effects of early career struggles on career stats of 29 year olds.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, dWAR includes a positional adjustment, not sure if that is really appropriate. He's actually just 6 runs below average defensively for his position each of the last two years (about -0.6 WAR per year). By comparison, Hunter is 14 runs below average each year, and of course turning 40 midseason... Also quoting career OPS+ doesn't seem quite right for a late bloomer who debuted at age 20. Cabrera has a 124 OPS+ over the last 4 years. At the same age, Hunter had a career OPS+ of 100 weighted down by early career struggles too -- it jumps to 108 just considering age 26-29 like Cabrera. Which figure was more instructive going forward?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    White Sox are in a very different position than the Twins. Similar records the last two years, but the White Sox have a stud startig pitcher and hitter in their prime, plus a couple borderline stars, all controlled relatively inexpensively for 4-6 years. I would not expect them to make similar moves as the Twins.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    The Dodgers basically got Nolasco for nothing, and made no effort to re-sign him. The next year they picked up Correia for the stretch run too...
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    It should be noted that McCarthy has somewhat better peripherals, thus a better FIP/xFIP than Santana. Still surprised by McCarthy's deal (MLBTR predicted 3/36).
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