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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    It is disingenuous to suggest those are their only two options on the free agent market. Non-closers have never before gotten a $20 million guarantee in free agency (searching back to the 2010-2011 offseason using MLBTR's FA Tracker), with the possible two exceptions of League and Broxton who got $22.5 and $21 million respectively a few years ago, although both had recent closer experience and were deployed (albeit briefly) as closers by their signing clubs, and maybe Miller last winter although he was crazy dominant and signed to replace Robertson as the Yankees closer. $20+ million is nowhere near the standard for multi-year FA set up men. MLBTR predicts only O'Day will get that much in this year's market. Plenty of guys like Mark Lowe and Shawn Kelley, to name a few, will almost certainly fall well short of that mark. MLBTR actually predicts Ryan Madson to land with the Twins for 3/15. That was the argument last year too, and arguably none of the big upside options are any closer to being viable MLB relievers a year later. "The volatility of relievers is such that anything more than a one-year contract is quite risky" has yet to be borne out by any data. When the market is primarily based on deals around 3/15, it's almost impossible for them to be "quite risky."
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Looks like the DL could be the new Rule 5 strategy, especially with TJ surgery pitchers like Melotakis -- spend half the year on DL (easy for for surgery recovery), then active for 2 months and you can effectively shut him down with expanded rosters for September and he's met the 90 days active requirement. If he's not physically ready by July, or you don't think you can spare the 25-man spot at that moment, you can leave him on the DL longer and make up for it with a little extra time on the 25-man to begin the following season.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    That Cub Reporter site seems to have everything, I don't usually look too far beyond that.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Isn't that what was said last year? And how did our bullpen work out? None of these guys even have a relief appearance in AAA yet, much less MLB. (Arguably none of them have yet to dominate AA either.) Even assuming one of these guys changes course into a fast riser who forces their way up in 2016 and doesn't experience much initial MLB growing pains, by that time our season could have already suffered irreparable harm via the bullpen. A mere 3/15 or thereabouts FA deal might easily get you another Perkins or Jepsen who you call "cornerstones". How is that not a good chance to take for the 2016 Twins pen, especially after the way our 2015 pen (and supposed minor league reinforcements) unfolded? Most of us thought a second addition to Jepsen was necessary at the trade deadline anyway (and we were probably right). And Jepsen himself is a full free agent after 2016, so you could think of the signing as Jepsen's potential veteran replacement, just overlapping for one year when our internal options haven't quite arrived at the MLB doorstep yet. Even with a FA signing, I expect there will still be no shortage of chaff for a fast-rising internal option to force out with a good performance.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    He was saying "no way" to drafting that specific player (Balbino Fuenmayor, who I think deserves consideration based on his name alone ).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    The advance requirement is so teams actually know who is available in the Rule 5, which would be difficult if teams were protecting their players at the last minute. The "revision" I am suggesting doesn't actually add anyone for protection, just removes a player. Happens all the time as free agents are signed or waiver claims are made, doesn't seem like it would be functionally different to drop a guy and immediately make a Rule 5 selection. In any case, answering my own question, I think they can drop guys pretty late. I see Ortiz was officially released the exact same day we drafted Jose Morban back in the 2002 Rule 5 draft. EDIT TO ADD: I did find this, though: "A player cannot be sent outright to the minors on the two days prior to the Rule 5 Draft and on the day of the Rule 5 Draft up through the conclusion of the draft." http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3530 So if you wanted to keep the player you are removing (outright to minors if he clears waivers), you can't do it in the 2 days leading up to the Rule 5 draft. You could release him like we did with Ortiz though, but that makes him a full free agent.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Reynaldo Rodriguez just re-signed with us as a minor league free agent, those players are eligible to be picked in Rule 5 but it's pretty rare. R.A. Dickey is the notable example of that, although he was a knuckleballer who had extensive MLB experience at the time. No one is going to select the soon to be 30, zero MLB experience, 115 wRC+ at AAA 1B Reynaldo Rodriguez.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Since tomorrow (Friday Nov. 20) is the deadline to protect players, we should see a lot more comprehensive lists after that. Unfortunately, the Twins are 17th in line. It's usually very slim pickings by that point -- even the guys that "stick" at that point in the draft tend to be low-upside players, and they often don't really stick but the teams negotiation a trade (like Scott Diamond). We are probably better off just protecting an extra guy of our own. How late can we drop a player to make room for a Rule 5 selection, though? Could we DFA someone like Achter the very day of the draft if a name we like is still on the board as our pick comes up?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't believe there is any provision to protect more than 40 players for the MLB phase of the Rule 5 draft, even after one of your unprotected players has been selected. I don't think I've heard of such a provision for the minor league phase either (although the minor league phases are pretty all-encompassing, isn't Brian Buscher one of the great minor league phase success stories? ).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the clarification. Given you are describing his performance relative to expectations, I think that's much better described as pleasantly surprising/unexpected rather than ridiculous. Which is good, but probably well short of vaulting him to the top 15 or so among Rule 5 eligible players. Teams don't draft players in Rule 5 on the basis of how much they exceeded expectations at AAA. How many players entering their age 27 season have been selected in the Rule 5 draft, much less stuck with their new team? Outside the odd cases of RA Dickey and Andy Oliver (who both had previous MLB experience), I can't recall any. Protecting Dean due to "improvements of his breaking pitches" (which only manifested themselves in his results on contact in a AAA pitcher's league and not in K% or BB%), against draft history and Dean's own track record, would indeed be crazy. Glad to hear you wouldn't do it, but I hope your's and Jeremy's prediction about it doesn't come to fruition. Nothing against Dean, I absolutely hope he gets an MLB shot somewhere, heck I wouldn't even mind if he got some mop-up innings for the Twins in 2016. I just don't want us to lock him into a 40-man spot right now, not when we should looking to add talent ourselves via Rule 5, free agency, and waivers.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Ridiculous? Dean had a nice ERA, but it's considered a pitcher's league. Just among qualifiers, he was behind 38 year old Randy Wolf, Michael Bowden, and someone named Greg Smith. The top 15 is pretty much a who's who of non-prospects except Henry Owens and Erik Johnson -- you can even find former Twins property Scott Diamond and Kyle Davies in that group: http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=2&qual=y&type=0&season=2015&team=0&players=0&sort=5,a This is without even considering peripherals and FIP. Also, Rule 5 is generally a place where teams grab talented guys who have underwhelming recent minor league stats, not a place to target guys whose recent minor league stats likely outpaced their talent. I'd be shocked if Dean was selected, and will be disappointed if the Twins protect him. Not only could it also leave someone else unprotected, but it could prevent us from making our own Rule 5 selection, and perhaps most importantly, ties up a 40-man spot likely for the whole 2016 season that we could use on waiver claims.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Morneau somehow slashed his K% to a career low at age 33. For all the talk about needing to hit for power, I'd love to see what Mauer could do by reducing his K% back to his early career levels.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Good point. Even with our college reliever draft strategy not starting in earnest until 2012, that's not a good record. (And not many of them look like they will start 2016 relieving in AAA either.)
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    If you don't have room on your 40-man, and you choose not to make room, the player would have to pass through waivers and be outrighted anyway. Otherwise, I suspect you would be able to make room for a newly-acquired player and add them to your 40-man roster, thus giving them Rule 5 protection, at any time. (The player you drop from the 40-man would then have to pass through waivers and be exposed to Rule 5 if unclaimed.)
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the info on Dean, Seth. If they protect Dean, after leaving Gilmartin unprotected last winter, I think that will indeed be crazy. Nothing against him, but Dean is 2 years older than Gilmartin was last year (and still a year older than Gilmartin in absolute terms too), not to mention the obvious performance differences.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, if they are on a 40-man roster on draft day, they will be protected, regardless of which organization originally added them to their roster. I think the Nov. 20 add deadline is in place so teams can't do a ton of last-minute protections to cause confusion, that's all. Guys can still get dropped from the roster and made eligible for Rule 5 after that date, and I suspect you would have the opportunity to add/protect any newly acquired players after that date too.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth, the suggestion is that the player would spend the minimum of 90 days active in 2016. So no, they wouldn't be subject to Rule 5 restrictions beyond 2016. And it's happened before, just not to the Twins. Arizona had Oscar Hernandez, the #1 pick in last year's Rule 5 draft, on the DL until July 4th this year, activating him just in time to meet the 90 days requirement by season's end. EDIT TO ADD: Atlanta did it with Daniel Winkler in last year's Rule 5 draft too, although he was recovering from TJ surgery and didn't make the active roster until September. So he will need to spend ~60 days active in 2016 to remove the Rule 5 restrictions. I'd guess it's gaining momentum as a strategy, particularly as more pitchers get TJ surgery. Don't know if the Twins current guys would be particularly attractive candidates, though.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I assume he meant before the July 31st deadline. Cotts wasn't acquired until August 21st.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Hasn't Dean been Rule 5 eligible the previous two winters? Can't say I see him as a likely pick this year, much less as a guy who could stick, he will be 27 in May and has career K/9 rates of 5.0, 4.8, and 4.9 at A, AA, and AAA, respectively. Unclaimed, a team would stand a decent shot at getting him as a minor league free agent next winter.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    The writing was on the wall last year for Pinto to make this list. Not surprising at all to see him regress in AAA and have no place on the Twins team, and perhaps not even in the org anymore. Is he due in Venezuela soon? Would be nice to see him get back on track, for the sake of his future MLB job prospects: http://m.eluniversal.com/deportes/beisbol/151111/tigres-esperan-a-josmil-pinto-para-el-fin-de-semana
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I noted that Burton was good, as well as Fien. But those two, plus Boyer, are about the only successes of this strategy for the Twins over the past 4 years. The idea that we should employ that strategy only, to the exclusion of multi-year reliever deals, with an iffy pen entering an expected contention year, is a stretch.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    This is where I think a lot of the disagreement lies. I think you are vastly overrating the success of the Twins recent strategies in bullpen building -- perhaps not realizing the span of time that their few success stories have covered? Going back over rosters and spring training invites, here are the FA bullpen candidates the Twins brought in from outside the organization since TR took over again in 2011. 2012 Jason Bulger Jared Burton Casey Fien Jeff Gray (technically a waiver claim, but I will include him anyway because we love him ) Esmerling Vásquez Matt Maloney Luis Perdomo 2013 Rich Harden (not sure if he should count as a starter, since he never pitched) Rafael Perez Bryan Augenstein Shairon Martis (technically purchased the previous summer) Virgil Vasquez Tim Wood Mike O'Connor 2014 Aaron Thompson Matt Hoffman Yohan Pino Matt Guerrier Mark Hamburger 2015 Blaine Boyer Tim Stauffer Obviously the star of this group is Fien, who not only has been an acceptable arm, but was also controllable for a bunch of pre-arb seasons at the time of signing. Burton was solid too, but controllable for fewer years and not as cheaply (since he was already arb eligible and only 2 years from FA). Both of those signings were almost 4 years ago already. Outside of that, Gray and Boyer are the only ones who survived the MLB season, and of course Gray was terrible and Boyer is now a FA again. Over 4 years, that's not a record that suggests bullpen improvement is more likely by this method than a multi-year FA deal in 2016.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I went to the 2013 MLBTR Free Agent Tracker, and out of 74 non-Mariano relievers listed who didn't sign multi year deals that winter (basically everybody on the market other than the guys jorgenswest highlighted in this article), only 16 pitched even 1 relief inning at replacement level (0+ bWAR) in 2013 for an MLB club that signed them that offseason. By comparison, 17 of the 27 contract seasons for those multi-year relievers met that (admittedly low) criteria. The most non-multi-year relievers on that list signed by a single team that winter was 5. On average, only one of those would meet that low criteria, perhaps wasting multiple roster spots and evaluation opportunities in the process. Only 38 innings per season average for the multi-year relievers, over the life of their deals? Try 14 relief IP on average for the rest of the market. Based on this data, I see no reason why a team with a weak pen but realistic plans to contend should completely shun the multi-year FA relief market over $4-$5 mil annually, especially when successful examples of this team's single-year FA reliever strategy seemto be limited to 2 guys (Burton and Boyer) over a four-season span.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    That makes some sense, Kwak, but 2/12 or 3/15 FA deal is pretty low risk too, and might save us from scrambling to find another Jepsen available and give up talent for him at the trade deadline.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Compared to what? Again, neither Cameron nor jorgenswest offer any point of comparison. By definition, it's pretty hard to think of a single 3/15 or so contract as being risky, much less incredibly risky. How many teams regret signing the relievers referenced in this article? How many of them even remember signing those relievers? All of those guys were in the upper levels of our system in 2015 too, and took a step backward. Shouldn't that be a lesson to count on them less than we did entering 2015? Chargois has an excuse that he was coming back from injury, but he alone isn't that great at the moment, and the other guys don't have any such excuse. Oliveros is a minor league free agent now. I guess that's the type of guy you want to bring in? Maybe re-sign Boyer if he was willing to take the one-year Stauffer deal? Seems to me that will be more likely to repeat 2015 than improve upon it. How much better would the 2015 Twins pen have been if we had ponied up for Gregerson or Neshek? And it's not an either-or thing, the Astros signed those guys, found a waiver claim in Will Harris, called up a young guy like Velasquez, etc. Twins can do that do. I just think finding at least one guy in FA gives you better odds at filling out a competent pen. If it turns out that our young guys are demanding a promotion by performance, and Perkins and Jepsen are fully healthy and effective, and May isn't needed in the rotation, and the Harden/Madson injury flier actually makes good, and Mark Lowe or whomever is healthy on a 2/12 or 3/15 FA deal, that will be a good problem to have, and no, I don't see the 2/12 or 3/15 as notably hurting us or reducing our flexibility.
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