AlwaysinModeration

It is a bummer those rumors were just that. We thought we knew the source, but when pressed, Garlick denied having started them.

Berrios is getting more than Buxton via arbitration, and has been more consistently available. ZIPs has him at 3.5WAR this year (STEAMER lower at 2.8WAR). I’d say he could be an extra 0.5WAR per season, or an extra $8mm for years three and four, plus an extra couple for the higher arb numbers. So if Buxton could garner 4 years for 50-55, a Berrios extension might be 4 years for 60-65?

I agree, I don’t think the Twins should give him the full 4/59 value—injury discounts would need to be factored in. Spycake just noted that ZIPs peg him at 2.7WAR over 397 ABs. I think that 397ABs is in part reflecting the risk he won’t be in the field 100% due to injuries. Steamer has him at 3WAR (but 530 ABs). So maybe my estimate of 3.5WAR for his 27/28 year season is a bit high. If he is at 3WAR for 27/28, and 2.5 WAR at 29 and 2 WAR at 30, those last two seasons are worth $36mm, making the extension 5/9/20/16=4/50. Anyway, four years, somewhere between 50 and 55mm seems like a good guess.

Tom Tango had an open source thread for years (before getting hired by an MLB team) spelling out in pretty clear terms how free agent contracts are derived. It starts by figuring out what the baseline WAR a player produces per year at their maximum, prime year production (27-28 years old, mostly). For most free agents, they are starting decline phase, and so you need to discount that max value by 0.5 WAR per year. Then you figure out the going rate in free agency per WAR, and you can figure out how much a player contract might be. The real key is figuring out the baseline WAR. Buxton maxed out at 3.6 WAR on Fangraphs at age 23, and was listed at 5.0 WAR on BBref for the same year. But he’s totaled between 8-10 WAR over the past 4 years on those sites (granted last year was a short year); 2-2.5 WAR per year. I think the most you could reasonably peg him at is 3.5 WAR for his age 27 and 28 seasons. That would drop to 3 WAR for his age 29 season. So to answer your precise question, at $8mm/WAR, he could expect a $24mm salary for his age 29 season when he hits free agency. Of course, his age 30 season would be less; discount to 2.5WAR, or 8x2.5=$20mm. 31 would be 2WAR/16, and age 32 would be 1.5WAR/12. So a four year free agent contract for Buck (for his age 29-32 seasons) would be 4/72, or $18 per year. Full value for Buck, using these calculations, including his last two arb years and two years of free agency, would be 5/10/24/20=59.

So to revise a bit, he’d probably want an increase for this year (from 5.1 to 6): 6 / 10 / 13 / 16 = 4 / 45 Add in a fifth-year option for 20, with, let’s say, a $5mm buyout. The guarantee would be a nice round $50mm, with the Twins getting up to three FA years, and Buck making more than Polanco, Kepler or Sano. A nice commitment to Buxton from the team, mitigating some of his injury downside, but still plenty of possibility that he outperforms the value of the contract.

Would be a no-brainer to try to extend Buxton. In answer to the question of what would make sense: 5 / 9 / 12 / 14 = 4/40 That would be buying out two years of free agency. If he is a 2.5 WAR player, he would be worth 2.5/2/1.5/1 over the next four years = 7 WAR, at $8mm per WAR, he would get $56mm if he were a free agent. Given that they kind of screwed him out of a year of service time, they should give him slightly more than 4/40, especially given his high upside (if healthy, he definitely can post north of 2.5 WAR.) I’d say 4/44 might work. Added benefit: shows Kiriloff that after he loses a FA year by staying in St.Paul for April, he doesn’t have to worry that much about it.

Ahem. Joe Niekro

Well I think I’d go with: 7. Phil Niekro 6. Nelson Cruz 5. Bartolo Colon 4. Dave Winfield 3. Jim Thome 2. Paul Molitor 1. Steve Carlton

Ding ding

Trevor Bauer 2021: 40mm Also, 2021: 38.5mm Nelson Cruz Andrelton Simmons Alex Colome JA Happ Hansel Robles

That’s one way to stick it to the White Sox. Also, Hayes reporting that Nelson Cruz’ cousin helping to seal this deal.

I’m looking forward to the playoff series that includes Donaldson, Simmons and Buxton.

According to Fangraphs, Cruz produced 6.3 WAR over the past two years, for a value of $49.6mm, while earning $26mm. He needs to produce 1.7 WAR to make this contract worth the money, which he has done for eight consecutive years (actually averaging 3.7WAR these last eight years, despite last year being 60 games.)

I don’t think it’s realistic to expect him to win more than one World Series MVP over the next two years. Buxton will likely win the other one.

Great to have Cruz back for another season, even though expectations for his output need to be tempered a bit. That should leave just enough money in the budget for the Bauer signing.

I think it is obvious that Cruz will be back. He will probably be worse than he has been the past two years, but still one of the best bats on the team, and one of the best DHs in the league. One year, $10mm, with a $2mm option on an $8mm second year. Hopefully he gets 100 starts for the Twins this year, and is healthy in October when they make an extended run in the postseason.

Why do you view Musgrove as so critical?

And the TD summary heading into 2019 didn’t have Arraez in the top 20: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/32301-article-td-2019-top-minnesota-twins-prospects-recap/?fromsearch=1 Meanwhile MLB didn’t list Arraez in their top 30 top Twins prospects for 2019.

Just doing a quick search, in April of 2019, Seth had Arraez as the #12 ranked position player: #12 - Luis Arraez 2B (Pensacola Blue Wahoos) Arraez returned last year after missing most of 2017 due to knee surgery. After a slow start, he started hitting again and then hit some more. Then about July 4th, he was promoted to Chattanooga where he hit some more. The Twins added him to the 40-man roster. Arraez is impressive to watch in person. He battles out at-bats and puts the ball in play. He’s also gained size and strength and I do think that he has become more athletic. In big league camp, he got time around the infield. In minor league camp, he primarily played second base.

Awesome signing. He’s got 36 career WAR, including 14 in 2017-2018. If he is healthy all year, he will give Donaldson a run for his money for team MVP. Also improves Polanco by letting him move to 2B.

JJ Hardy?

Anyone?

Unfortunately I had Bob Gibson on my list. And also artist Aldo Moroni: https://m.startribune.com/aldo-moroni-beloved-minneapolis-artist-who-created-tiny-civilizations-dies-at-67/572568322/

And there it is—Kintzler saves the second win for Miami. Presley Hendriks Graterol Kintzler Has the makings of a pretty good bullpen.

The possibilities are endless! With the Twins winning the division and getting the top seed, they get to play with Royals-Tigers winner. Will they be vanquished by battle-tested Alex Gordon catching Luiz Arraez line drives down the left field line? Or, more probably, will Gardy come out of retirement to lead the Tigers over the Twins, making shrewd move after shrewd move during the series? And will the losses count in their streak?