Parker Hageman

Kyle Cody
Cody Tyler
Jay Kyle
Cody Kyle
Jay Cody
Tyler Cody
Tyler Kyle
Cody Jay
Tyler Jay
Kyle Tyler
Kyle Jay
Jay Tyler

First, the results. Then, how in the heck I got them. We’ll use Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to assess how well the Twins have drafted in the first round from 2003 to 2011 compared to the rest of the league.
 
From 2003-2011, the Twins’ first-round picks were:
23rd in expected WAR per pick. This is an indication of their consistently low draft position due to successful teams and supplemental round picks.
15th in total expected WAR. The Twins make up ground here due to the additional picks they gained in the supplemental round as compensation for losing free agents.
19th in actual WAR generated. The Twins draft picks from 2003-2011 have produced WAR at a lower rate than the league average.
19th in pick efficiency. This most directly ties to “how well they drafted” after accounting for both draft position and total number of picks. I’m defining pick efficiency as the ratio of actual WAR to expected WAR.
 
This has certainly had an impact on the poor results we’ve seen out of the team from 2011-2014. Many other avenues of talent acquisition exist, but for teams like the Twins and many others, the acquisition of amateurs plays a large role. The draft goes much deeper than the first round, but failing to get significant production there can be quite the challenge to overcome.
 
It’s amazing how a Mike Trout or a Clayton Kershaw can make your team look good at first round draft picks, as seen by the Angels and Dodgers. The Red Sox did poorly from 2006 going forward as shown in Parker’s recent analysis, but they get credit for Jacoby Ellsbury and a few others here. The Diamondbacks did well, but traded away Scherzer, J. Upton and Stephen Drew – their top 3 performing picks. You might also notice a pretty strong correlation between the teams at the bottom of the list and the teams that have stunk in recent years. Sure would hate to be a Phillies fan – that organization has managed to get negative WAR out of their first rounds picks – yow-ouuch.
 
The Twins didn’t hit any homers with their first round picks in this timeframe. However, expectations needed to be tempered in the first place. They’ve underperformed even to that lowered standard, but this analysis doesn’t show them to be among the very worst either.
 
Smack-dab middle of the pack in total expected WAR + below average pick efficiency + trading away the draft pick that represented over a third of the actual WAR generated (Garza) for a terrible left fielder = very little visible MLB production for the Twins out of the 2003-2011 first round picks.
 


 
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Now, for those so inclined, the approach.
 
Over the last decade, a number of extremely smart statistical researchers have explored the value of draft picks. I am not one of them. For simplicity, I decided to use the figures created by Andrew Ball (which are quite similar to others out there):
Tier 1 – Pick #1 Expected WAR = 11.83
Tier 2 – Pick #2 Expected WAR = 10.09
Tier 3 – Pick #3-7 Expected WAR = 5.37
Tier 4 – Pick #8-15 Expected WAR = 5.21
Tier 5 – Pick #16-30 Expected WAR = 2.65
Tier 6 – Pick #31-60 Expected WAR = 1.41
 
It is important to note that the expected WAR figures represent only the first 6 years of a player’s career. This is done with the expectation that teams are paying market rates for players that have reached free agency and their draft value has been expended. Data on first round draft picks and the WAR they have generated was collected from Baseball Reference.
 
I wanted the results here to reflect on the struggles from 2011-2014, so I intentionally didn’t go any further back than 2003 because those players had largely used up their first six years early in that period or before it. An argument could be made to include the 2002 class since most of the big names wouldn't have reached free agency until the 2013 season (Greinke, Hamels, Cain, BJ Upton), but I’ve excluded them. Note that this leaves out Denard Span from 2002 and Joe Mauer from 2001, both resounding successes of first-round picks.
 
With our time frame selected and the expected values defined, I tried to account for the fact that the more recent draft years are unlikely to have utilized all of their pre-free agency years by discounting the expected WAR for those more recent draft classes. The expected WAR in the first 6 years for the 2007-2011 draft classes were reduced by the following factors:
2011 = 1/6
2010 = 2/6
2009 = 3/6
2008 = 4/6
2007 = 5/6
This factoring isn’t perfect, as players come up at different rates, but the ratios of actual to expected WAR within the draft class stay reasonably steady at these rates. This discounting is actually a benefit for teams that have already gotten MLB production from these recent draft classes, which seems fine to me with our goal of assessing impact on the 2011-2014 seasons. We also might get some WAR from the older draft classes beyond their first 6 years. To adjust for this, I looked at the individual players in the 2003-2005 classes with more than 5 career WAR, looked up their stats on BRef and reduced their WAR by any amounts earned beyond 6 years (this sounds like a lot of work, but it was really only like 20 guys).
 
In looking through the data, I’m satisfied that we’re at least close enough to get a good gauge of team drafting performance. If you’ve made it this far, I’d be happy to share the Excel file with anyone interested (send me a PM with your email). I’ve also done some analysis specific to the Twins’ picks and whether or not they made it to MLB in relation to league averages, so I might follow up with that.
 
I hope the info here provides some help in assessing the Twins’ recent first round draft performance. Thanks in advance for your comments, insights and feedback.
 
Photo credit to Mizzou Media Relations

Forbes.com reported today that Major League baseball league-wide revenues jumped from $8 billion in 2013 to $9 billion in 2014, mostly due to the league's new national TV contracts and to revenue from MLB Advanced Media, the league's online streaming arm.
 
A look back: In 2001, revenue was $3.6 billion; adjusted for inflation, $4.66 billion in today's dollars, according to Forbes. That year, three MLB teams had payrolls over $100 million; the Yankees led the way with just over $112 million. 16 more had more than $50 million in payroll that season. Since then, revenue has doubled, more or less. The Dodgers had a $235 million payroll last year, and the Yankees nearly cleared the bar to $200 million as well. 14 other teams had payrolls of at least $100 million.
 
$200 million is the new $100 million, when it comes to payroll. $100 million is the new $50 million.
 
Since Target Field opened in 2010, the median MLB payroll has gone from $85 million to $107 million - right in line with revenue, which just like the median payroll, has jumped 25% in that five-year span. During that same period, the Twins' payroll has declined, from $98 million to $85million. Don't let the Twins fool you; they will try to tell you that they're spending plenty of money. They aren't.
 
Remember this the next time Terry Ryan or Dave St. Peter talks about being "fiscally responsible." Remember this the next time your neighbor complains about Joe Mauer's contract being the problem with the Twins. Remember that MLB's revenue explosion, and the great gobs of taxpayer money that funded Target Field, mean that the Twins are making more money now than they ever have before - indeed more money than they could ever have dreamed of.
 
They're just pocketing it, instead of spending it on improving the team.

In a wild MLB Trade Deadline Day that saw David Price to Detroit, Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes to Oakland for Yoenis Cespedes, John Lackey to St. Louis for Joe Kelly, and even Stephen Drew from Boston to the Yankees, Terry Ryan and the Minnesota Twins' front office can hold their heads relatively high. They locked up All-Star catcher Kurt Suzuki for two more years at $12 million with a slick vesting option for a third year based on plate appearances, as Mike Berardino tweets.
 
The Twins played it smart and basically have full control of that vesting year. However, with Kennys Vargas being called up to fill the designated hitter spot in light of Kendrys Morales being traded back to Seattle and the "triumphant" return of Joe Mauer to first base and not catcher, it doesn't look good for Josmil Pinto, who now has plenty of time to progress defensively in Rochester. It certainly wouldn't be a surprise if Suzuki gets 485 plate appearances in 2016, but it would mean Pinto still can't catch and Mauer still won't catch. With his improved approach at the plate that Parker Hageman recognized in video reconnaissance, maybe three years of Kurt Suzuki won't be so bad.
 
Let's just hope Pinto learns to frame pitches at least as well as Suzuki in a hurry so Ryan can move Suzuki sooner rather than later.
 
He did make another slick move in giving waiver claim Sam Fuld back to Oakland for starting pitcher Tommy Milone. I like Milone, whose given name is Tomaso Anthony Milone. Milone has put up impressive numbers in nearly 500 MLB innings pitched, but his strikeout numbers have steadily fallen. If he gives up even fewer homers and walks, which would be expected given Target Field and Rick Anderson, Milone will be an effective starter until 2018 when he becomes a free agent. And he will be better and cheaper in the role Kevin Correia has been failing to fill. Correia will be waived, and I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up the fifth starter or long reliever of a National League Wild Card contender...say, the Pirates. Any return on Correia is good return. Hell, maybe if we throw in a reliever they'll give Vance Worley back.
 
Of course, we must also consider Ryan's move to send Morales back to Seattle, which brought relief pitcher Stephen Pryor in what looks to me like a salary dump of sorts. Pryor's only 22, but I don't see Ryan's interest except that Pryor's biggest problem is walks, and if there's anything the Twins organization preaches it's, "Don't give free passes." I didn't understand the move with so many young pitchers to throw out there as relievers: Thielbar, Fien, Pressly, Tonkin, even AJ Achter; and I still don't understand it after none of our relievers were traded: Burton, Duensing, Deduno, or even Perkins (although that would have been heartbreaking).
 
So the Sam Fuld trade was outstanding, the Kenndrys Morales trade was pretty terrible, and perhaps the best move Terry Ryan made was to extend Kurt Suzuki at reasonable dollars and years. The Twins will most certainly be active at the waiver deadline, with Correia, Willingham, Burton, and maybe even Deduno to be considered. It's the most wonderful time of the year.
 
For original story visit http://gogonzojournal.com/sports