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Seth Stohs

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Blog Entries posted by Seth Stohs

  10. The Minnesota Twins just announced that they have optioned Kyle Gibson and Caleb Thielbar and also reassigned Anthony Slama, James Beresford and Kyle Knudson to minor league camp.
     
    Gibson has really struggled in big league games this spring after a flashy start. Of course, this is no surprise in his return from Tommy John surgery although many thought that he would have a chance at making the Twins starting rotation. More important than where he starts the season, Gibson's arm is feeling good. His velocity is back. He is throwing a very sharp slider. His control is not as impeccable as it typically has been, but that isn't completely unexpected. Gibson is going to have his innings monitored, but that is not the reason for starting the season in Rochester. He needs to get work. He needs to be more consistent. There is little question that he will be fine. He will be up with the Twins in the not-so-distant future.
     
    Thielbar was one of the surprise adds to the 40 man roster. Plucked from the St. Paul Saints late in the 2011 season, Thielbar pitched in Ft. Myers, New Britain, Rochester and the Arizona Fall League in 2012. He struggled this spring, but he does have a strong arm, and if needed, he could come up in 2013.
     
    Anthony Slama struggled this spring as well. In each of his outings, he threw a lot of pitches, struggled with control and command and was hittable. He'll go back to Rochester, probably be the closer, hopefully put up Slama-like numbers and get one more shot with the Twins during the season. He does become a minor league free agent following the season.
     
    James Beresford impressed with his glove, as always, this spring with the Twins. His first big league camp was interrupted by his appearance with Australia in the WBC. He has played three infield positions very well. Last night, he launched a solo home run for the Twins. He had just one home run in his professional career coming into the game, a home run in 2010 in Beloit. But, he has been able to add weight this offseason, a goal of his, and he has made some adjustments, so 2013 should be an interesting year for him.
     
    Kyle Knudson went to high school in Minnesota and played for the Minnesota Gophers in college. He was invited to spring training to help catch bullpens, but also to gain exposure with the big league coaching staff. He handled himself well behind the plate, and finally healthy, he should put up decent offensive numbers in 2013. He'll likely start the season in Ft. Myers.
     
    According to the press release, the Twins now have 51 players in camp (24 pitchers, six catchers, 11 infielders, and 10 outfielders.
  12. Last week, we began to look at the Minnesota Twins organizational depth by looking at all of the outfielders and then all of the infielders in the in the system. Yesterday, we reviewed all of the catchers. Today, we will be taking a look at the starting pitchers throughout the Twins system. Consider there are five starters on the big league team plus four full-season affiliates and several remaining in Extended Spring Training. There are lots of pitchers to get through.
     
    As pitchers move up the organizational ladder, they typically get put into either the starting pitcher or relief pitcher category. In the lower levels, the line is a little more blurry. Because all pitchers are a little different (age, mechanics, stuff, maturity), they are treated a little differently. A high school draft pick in his first full season will likely throw less innings than a 25-year-old in AAA. In the lower levels, it’s quite possible that one pitcher will start in the first half and pitch out of the bullpen in the second half, or once they hit a certain innings limit. Other pitchers may be stretched out in the bullpen and move into the rotation when scheduled. This also occurs when a pitcher is rehabbing an injury. In other words, it is important to remember that if a pitcher is not starting in April, it doesn’t mean that he’ll be in the bullpen the whole year.
     
     
     
    Here are (most of) the Starting Pitchers in the Minnesota Twins organization:
    Minnesota Twins
     
    Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey, Vance Worley, Scott Diamond (DL), Liam Hendriks, Cole De Vries,
     
    Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano are gone. Last year’s best pitcher, Scott Diamond is likely to start the season on the Disabled List after having bone chips removed from his elbow in December. The Twins starting rotation in 2012 was a hodge-podge, thrown together with hope and prayers, and for the most part, things went horribly wrong. The front office did make a couple of offseason trades to make the future of the starting rotation look brighter, but they did little to instill confidence that the rotation will be much better in 2013.
     
    That said, there can be some reason for some minimal optimism, should you choose to think that way. In the Ben Revere trade, the Twins acquired Vance Worley who was clearly the #54 starter for the Phillies rotation the last couple of years (behind the likes of Halladay, Lee, Oswalt and Hamels), but he would have been the Twins top guy the last couple of seasons. He would be the odds-on favorite to be the team’s top starter in 2013. He also had bone chips removed, but his procedure was done last August. Kevin Correia is going to give up a ton of hits. We know that. But if he can find a way to give up four runs or less in his 5-6 innings most starts, the offense may have a chance to keep up. He got $10 million. He’ll be making starts. Mike Pelfrey was an innings-eater at least for the Mets for several years. That is, until 2012 when he had Tommy John surgery in May. His comeback has been nothing short of remarkable, though it will be interesting to see how his aggressive return plays out. If healthy, he can be an average starter. Liam Hendriks would likely be in the lead for the 5th starter job if it was decided today. (Yes, he also had bone chips removed, in October) He’s looking to take his immense minor league success and show it in the big leagues in 2013. Assuming Diamond starts on the DL, the Twins will need another starter, and I would say that would be Cole de Vries at this point. The Minnesota native has performed quite well this spring, and although expectations were low for him in his rookie season, he actually pitched well.
    Rochester Red Wings
     
    Kyle Gibson, Samuel Deduno, PJ Walters, Pedro Hernandez, Virgil Vasquez, Scott Elarton (Nick Blackburn – DL)
     
    There is a chance that Kyle Gibson still makes the Twins Opening Day roster, but I sense that he is going to begin the season with the Red Wings where they will be able to limit his innings early in the season. That way, when he comes up to the Twins, there will be no limitations. Samuel Deduno will certainly be an interesting pitcher to watch in 2013. He pitched much better than expected in 2012, even showing good control at times. He was terrific in the Dominican Winter League, and his one start in the WBC was very impressive, and no walks. PJ Walters is having a very good spring again, and may be trying to earn a spot as a long reliever. Assuming he doesn’t, he’ll again be part of the Red Wings starting staff. Pedro Hernandez came to the Twins in the Francisco Liriano deal, made a couple of starts for Rochester, and then his season ended with injury. He is yet to give up a run this spring and may be competing with Tyler Robertson for a third lefty reliever. Virgil Vasquez hasn’t played in the big leagues for a couple of years. The Twins signed him while he was pitching in the Australian Baseball League this past winter. Elarton is another veteran who has been around for many years. He’s looking to the Twins for another opportunity. As you know, Nick Blackburn will begin the season on the Disabled List. When healthy, he’ll get another chance to start.
    New Britain Rock Cats
     
    BJ Hermsen, Alex Meyer, Trevor May, Logan Darnell, Pat Dean, Blake Martin, Tom Stuifbergen, Kyle Davies, (Alex Wimmers – DL)
     
    Hermsen was the Twins minor league pitcher of the year last year. He spent April in Ft. Myers, but he moved up to New Britain and was an Eastern League All-Star. He earned his spot on the Twins 40 man roster. Trevor May came to the Twins with Vance Worley from the Phillies in the Ben Revere trade. The hard-throwing right hander pitched for Reading (AA) last year and will return to the league for 2013 because he struggled with control. If he can throw strikes, he has the pitches and the mid-90s fastball to become a top of the rotation type of starter. Alex Meyer came to the Twins in the Denard Span trade. As the Twins said, to get a top of the rotation pitcher, you have to give something significant up, and before he gets to the upper levels. The sky is the limit for Meyer as he has a fastball that reaches into the upper-90s and a devastating slider. Darnell is a lefty who has pitched for the Rock Cats each of the past two seasons. He pitched in the Arizona Fall League last year. Blake Martin is another lefty who sees time in the rotation and in the bullpen. He has generally pitched better as a starter. Kyle Davies was once a prospect with the Braves. He was traded to the Royals where he was even worse. He did not pitch at all in 2012 and hopes to stick in the Twins organization. Stuifbergen has pitched for Ft. Myers each of the last two seasons. He has the stuff to be a solid starter, but he has to stay healthy. He is pitching for The Netherlands in the WBC. Alex Wimmers had Tommy John surgery in July, and he will likely be rehabbing much of the season.
    Ft. Myers Miracle
     
    Adrian Salcedo, Jason Wheeler, Matt Summers, Madison Boer, David Hurlbut, Matt Tomshaw, Luke Bard
     
    Adrian Salcedo was one of the Twins Top 10 prospects a year ago at this time, but in 2012, he missed most of the season with shoulder and elbow injuries. When healthy, he is long and lanky and can throw 95. He’s very athletic and could move quickly when confident in his arm. Jason Wheeler led the Twins minor leagues in Wins in 2012 with the Beloit Snappers. The tall left-hander doesn’t throw hard but does have good control and three pitches. Matt Summers started last year with the Snappers, but he was promoted to Ft. Myers where he was solid but unspectacular. Eden Prairie’s Madison Boer moved up to Ft. Myers very early and really struggled. I think that he could move up the system really quickly if he moved to the bullpen, but he has the velocity and the pitches that make him intriguing still as a starter. Hurlbut and Tomshaw were both terrific in the Beloit rotation all season. The lefties don’t throw hard, but they know how to pitch. Tomshaw pitched well right for the Miracle right after he was drafted in 2011, and he will return again in 2013. Luke Bard was the Twins third, first-round pick in 2012 out of Georgia Tech. He pitched so little last year due to injury. He will begin the season as a bullpen guy, but he will get a chance to start at some point.
    Cedar Rapids Kernels
     
    JO Berrios, DJ Baxendale, Tyler Duffey, Mason Melotakis, Taylor Rogers, Christian Powell, Brett Lee
     
    The Twins’ draft strategy last year included taking top available talent. For the team, the meant a lot of hard-throwing college arms who could move up quickly in the bullpen, but the Twins want several of them to become starters. When JO Berrios was available with the first pick of the supplemental first round, the Twins were thrilled to select him. The youngster impressed the Twins brass in spring training before heading to the WBC to pitch for Puerto Rico. Taylor Rogers moved up to Beloit and made a few starts in 2012 after being drafted out of Kentucky. DJ Baxendale pitched for Arkansas in the College World Series last year. Upon signing, the Twins kept him pitching out of the bullpen to limit his innings. He was dominant for the Snappers in 2012. Melotakis was the Twins 2nd round pick. The hard-throwing lefty dominated out of the bullpen, but he will also be able to find out if he can be a starter. Tyler Duffey put up astonishing numbers in Elizabethton as a reliever. He pitched for the Snappers in the playoffs. He too will be getting an opportunity to start. Christian Powell worked just a handful of innings before being hurt, but the hard-thrower will get a chance to start. Brett Lee is a lefty who pitched well for Elizabethton last year. He was drafted three times, so I’d expect him to take a big step forward in 2013.
    Extended Spring Training/Short-Season
     
    Hudson Boyd, Austin Malinowski, Josue Montanez, Hein Robb, Sam Gibbons, Felix Jorge, Yorman Landa, Kuo-Hua Lo.
     
    Hudson Boyd’s first pro season was full of ups and downs, and his numbers show it. The 20-year-old pitched in Elizabethton last year and posted a solid 2.95 ERA. However, he was just 2-5 and had a WHIP of 1.48 while striking out just 36 in 58 innings. He throws hard. He lost a lot of weight this offseason. Expect much improvement in his second season. Austin Malinowski is from Minnesota and gave up a ride to the University of Arizona to sign with the Twins. He went 3-2 with a 2.27 ERA in 11 games in the GCL. His WHIP was 1.45, but the southpaw struckout 32 batters in 31.2 innings. Josue Montanez fought some injuries last year, but when he pitched, he was terrific. In the GCL, the lefty went 2-0 with a 0.36 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. He struckout 30 and walked just eight in 25 innings. Seems like lefty Hein Robb has been around for a long time. He has been. The Twins signed him as a 16-year-old from South Africa. He played for their national team in the 2009 WBC, before he even pitched in the States. Last year at E-Town (after two years in the GCL), the lefty went 2-4 with a 3.73 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. In 41 innings, he walked 14 and struckout 38. Sam Gibbons is a 19-year-old from Australia who debuted in the States with the GCL Twins in 2012. He went 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 35.1 innings. He walked just eight but struckout just 22. Felix Jorge was signed as a highly-touted right-hander from the Dominican. He went 0-3 but posted a 2.34 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in the GCL. In 34.2 innings, he walked 12 and struckout 37. Jorge just recently turned 19. Yorman Landa is also highly-touted. He comes from Venezuela. He too pitched in the GCL in 2012, and he went 1-3 with a 2.43 ERA. In 33.1 innings, he walked too many (21) but struckout 27. He will turn 19 about the time the Elizabethton season starts. Kuo-Hua Lo signed from Taiwan near in 2011 and debuted in the GCL as a 19-year-old in 2012. He went 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP in 11 games. In 39.2 innings, he walked seven and struckout 33.
    TOP PROSPECTS
     
    1.) Alex Meyer, 2.) Kyle Gibson, 3.) JO Berrios, 4.) Trevor May, 5.) Mason Melotakis, 6.) Luke Bard, 7.) BJ Hermsen, 8.) Felix Jorge.
     
    The Twins finally have a few pitchers in their system with some significant upside. Alex Meyer has true ace potential. Kyle Gibson is very close, and he can be a solid #2. The sky may be the limit for JO Berrios, and although he’s young, he could move quickly. May came to the organization, and he has #2 upside, and if he does wind up in the bullpen, he could be dominant.
    SUMMARY
     
    2012 was a frustrating year for the Twins. Often, the team would find itself down by three or four runs before the third inning. It will be interesting to see how the new pitchers fit in and pitch in the American League. It will be interesting to see Hendriks and De Vries get their next shot in the big leagues. Some of those guys that were forced into action last year for the Twins are still around, hoping for another shot. In Sam Deduno and PJ Walters, they have good options.
     
    And, what is really exciting is the influx of talent that the Twins have had since the end of last year. A couple of guys came via trade The Twins drafted the talented Berrios, and then a bunch of strong-armed college pitchers. Some will get a chance to start. Others could move up quickly in the bullpen. And, there are some more high-ceiling, high potential pitchers who threw in the GCL a year ago. It will be interesting to watch their slow climb up the organizational ladder.
     
    The Twins minor league pitching depth hasn’t been this strong in a long time. Will they use that #4 pick in the 2013 draft to obtain more high-ceiling pitching talent? We shall see.
     
    If you have any further questions, please feel free to leave your thoughts in the Comments Section!
  23. Tonight (Tuesday) at 7:00 central time, Seth Stohs will be taking your Minnesota Twins-related questions. He will answer questions for as much as two hours tonight. The Twins are in spring training camp. We can finally move past the offseason and start talking about actual baseball news.
     
    This is a good opportunity for you to ask your individual questions regarding Seth's projections from today, ask about minor leaguers and much, much more. It's a good opportunity for the Twins Daily writers to learn what our valued readers are wanting to read about as well.
     
    So, if it works out for you, please join the chat tonight at 7. If it doesn't work, worry not! The transcription of the chat will be available following the chat.
     
     
    Twins Daily Live Twins Chat
  25. On Tuesday, Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers had to report to Ft. Myers for spring training. Although many infielders and outfielders have already been working out at the Lee County Complex, they officially have to report on Friday and the team will have the first official full squad workout on Saturday. On Tuesday, I posted my first roster projections for the pitchers and catchers, and today, I’ll post my roster projections for the infielders and outfielders
     
    Each Friday through spring training, I’ll be taking a weekly look at the Twins roster and project who will make the Opening Day roster. After looking at 43 pitchers and catchers who reported Tuesday, today I’ll post a percent likelihood that each infielder and outfielder will be on the Twins Opening Day roster. As we learned on Thursday when the Twins signed Rafael Perez to a minor league contract with a spring training invite, the roster is still subject to change, and I will account for those each week.
     
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]3263[/ATTACH]
    INFIELDERS
    40 MAN ROSTER
    Jamey Carroll (100%), Justin Morneau (100%), Trevor Plouffe (100%), Pedro Florimon (66%), Brian Dozier (62%), Eduardo Escobar (51%), Danny Santana (0.6%)
     
    Justin Morneau will be at first base, and Trevor Plouffe will be at third base. After that, there are still plenty of question marks remaining. Question marks that may not be answered until the final week of the spring. Jamey Carroll will be on the roster. He could start at shortstop or second base, and he could be a three-position utility player. Pedro Florimon appears to be the favorite to start the season at shortstop. Brian Dozier could be given a very good opportunity to start at second base and told us not to give up on him as a shortstop. Remember that the Twins traditionally have two utility infielders on the roster. Eduardo Escobar can play all three positions very well, and was a utility infielder for the Chicago White Sox in 2012 until he was traded to the Twins for Francisco Liriano. Danny Santana will likely head to New Britain to start the season.
    NON-ROSTER INVITES
    Ray Olmedo (8.0%), Chris Colabello (1.0%), Jeff Clement (0.9%), Deibinson Romero (0.8%), Mark Sobolewski (0.7%), James Beresford (0.4%)
     
    In 2003, Ray Olmedo got 250 plate appearances as a 22-year-old for the Cincinnati Reds. Over the next three seasons, he had another 138 total plate appearances. He played in 27 games for the 2007 Toronto Blue Jays. He then was in the minor leagues until the White Sox called him up as a 31-year-old for 20 games in August and September (after Escobar was traded). Colabello was one of the best stories in the Twins farm system in 2012, his first year in affiliated ball. He also crushed the ball in Mexico this winter. He likely will go to Rochester, but with left-handed hitting 1B options (Morneau, Parmelee, Mauer), he could find a role as a right-handed part-time player for the Twins. The Twins drafted Clement out of high school, but he went to college and was the #3 overall pick of the Mariners in 2005. He has played in 152 games in the big leagues, for the Mariners and Pirates), including going 3-22 for the Pirates in 2012. Romero returns to Twins big league camp for the first time since he was a 40-man-roster member in 2009 spring training. A year later, he was off the 40 man roster, but he has remained with the only organization he has played for since signing with the team in 2006. Last year in New Britain, he hit .267/.356/.441 with 23 doubles and 19 home runs. Sobolewski was a minor league Rule 5 selection of the Twins in December. The third baseman was a 4th round pick of the Blue Jays in 2008. He hit 20 home runs in 2012 (18 in AA, 2 in AAA) and is known to be very good defensively at the hot corner. James Beresford became a free agent following the 2012 season, but he decided to remain with the only organization he’s known since signing with the Twins from Australia. He will again be on the Australian team in the WBC this spring. The middle infielder is a terrific leader and has a great glove.
    THE OUTFIELDERS
    40 Man Roster
    Josh Willingham (100%), Darin Mastroianni (100%), Chris Parmelee (99%) Aaron Hicks (48%), Joe Benson (42%), Oswaldo Arcia (1.2%)
     
    Josh Willingham had the best season of his career and earned his Silver Slugger Award with career-high 35 home runs and 110 RBI. Right Field has been opened up for Chris Parmelee to take after he dominated AAA and has earned the opportunity. He will have to take the job and make it his as Twins minor league hitter of the year, Oswaldo Arcia, is quickly moving up the system behind him and should make his major league debut sometime in 2013. The biggest question mark of spring training is who will take the centerfield position. Darin Mastroianni will make the team. He will be given a shot to win the starting job after doing a nice job in the 4th outfielder role. Aaron Hicks is the name that most people are talking about. The 23-year-old had a breakout season in 2012 in AA New Britain, showing the immense talent that made him the 14th overall pick in 2008. He will have to take the job in spring, but there is little doubt that he will debut in 2013 with the Twins. The name that is too often forgotten is Joe Benson. One year ago at this time, he came to spring training after making his major league debut the September before. He was as highly-regarded last year as Hicks is this year. He was hurt the entire 2012 season and tried to play through the pain as long as he could. He is blessed with amazing athleticism and talent, and if healthy, he can still be an impact player. One important question is whether Benson would be considered an option as the 4th outfielder, or would they still want the ultra-competitive 25-year-old to continue to play every day.
    Non-Roster Invites
    Brandon Boggs (17%), Clete Thomas (14%), Wilkin Ramirez (7.0%), Brian Dinkelman (1.9%)
     
    If Mastroianni starts the season as a starter, and the Twins decide that they want Hicks and Benson to play every day in Rochester, Brandon Boggs and Clete Thomas will compete for the 4th outfield spot on the roster. We saw Thomas last year when he had one impressive game before becoming unable to make contact. Once he went down to Rochester, he was OK, and he certainly could be a 4th outfielder because he’s good defensively and we know he’s better than he showed with the Twins in 2012. Boggs was the 4th round pick of the Rangers in 2004 out of Georgia Tech. As a 25-year-old in 2008, he played in 101 games for the Rangers. He played in just 13 games for the Rangers over the next two seasons and 16 games for the Brewers in 2011. Last year in AAA Indianapolis, he hit .259/.359/.408 with 24 doubles, five triples and nine home runs. In 481 plate appearances, he walked 62 times, but he also struckout 120 times. But again, we’re just talking about a 4th outfield spot for a month or two. Ramirez came to Twins camp a year ago, but unfortunately, he was hurt in camp. After rehabbing, he hit .276/.316/.451 with 18 doubles and 15 home runs in 98 games in Rochester. He played 15 games (13 PAs) for Detroit as a 23-year-old in 2009 and 20 games (30 PAs) for the Atlanta Braves in 2011. What hurts his chances of making the Twins roster as a fourth outfielder is that he is really a corner outfielder with limited centerfield time in his career. Brian Dinkelman was the Twins 8th round pick in 2006 out of NAIA McKendree University. He debuted and played in 23 games as a 27-year-old in 2011. He hit .301 in his 73 big league at bats. In 2012, he missed a lot of time with injury.
    ROSTER PROJECTION #1 (2/15/13):
    Infielders (6): Justin Morneau, Trevor Plouffe, Jamey Carroll, Pedro Florimon, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar
    Outfielders (4): Josh Willingham, Chris Parmelee, Darin Mastroianni, Joe Benson
    Catchers (3): Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit, Drew Butera
    Starting Pitchers (5): Scott Diamond, Kevin Correia, Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey, Liam Hendriks, Kyle Gibson (Diamond and/or Pelfrey likely starting season on DL)
    Relief Pitchers (7): Glen Perkins, Jared Burton, Brian Duensing, Alex Burnett, Casey Fien, Josh Roenicke, Tim Wood (Anthony Swarzak possibly on the DL?)
     
    What are your thoughts or projections on the Twins Opening Day roster as Pitchers and Catchers report? Make your 25-man-roster projections and we'll check back on Opening Day to see who got the most right.

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