Danchat

Continuing on from part 1:
 
#24 - Gabriel Maciel CF (International from Brazil, acquired in 2018 trade)
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The second best prospect acquired in the Escobar trade, Maciel is a speedy outfielder who loves to spray singles all around the field. He's a frequent base stealer who's capable of swiping 20+ a year, but gets caught more often than he should. He has a career .288 average in the minors and will rarely strike out, but the downside is that he has little power. Not just a lack of HRs, but also 2Bs and 3Bs. He profiles as a 4th OF who will be useful as a pinch hitter, defensive replacement, and pinch runner.
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#23 - Luis Rijo RHP (Acquired in 2018 trade)
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Rijo jumped onto the scene after a great 2019 season as he posted a 2.86 ERA over 19 starts at single A Cedar Rapids. Sporting a WHIP of nearly 1.0 and a healthy 8.3 K/9, Rijo's fastball touches 95 and his secondary pitches are rated well. Scouts have critisized the 'hitability' of his fastball and deemed his curveball to be too predictable, which probably factors into why he was passed up in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft. He's still got time to improve his pitches and build more innings in the minors to try and become a #4/5 starter. Unlike other pitching prospects, he doesn't strike me as a future reliever, unless he becomes a long reliever.
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#22 - Nick Gordon SS/2B (1st Round 2014, HS)
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Gordon has had a long and drawn out minor league career, but seemed to be heading towards the majors in 2019 once being added to the 40 man roster, but a leg injury prevented that (he was a near lock to at least be called up in September). He then had a long bout with COVID in 2020 and never even made it to the alternate site. He's now 25 and has just one option left, but remains on the roster. His minor league track record isn't bad, as he's been a decent pure hitter (.276 average), but he never developed any power and will likely end up like his older brother Dee - a sub .700 OPS hitter. To provide value he'll need to become a strong defensive player, but he's also got a shaky track record as a fielder and might end up as a second baseman. All in all, Gordon will likely settle into a utility role if he can crack the majors.
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#21 - Spencer Steer 2B (3rd Round 2019, Oregon)
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Steer had a quality debut in 2019, hitting .949 OPS at Elizabethton and went to single A Cedar Rapids and hit for .358 OPS (.745 OPS). He handled 3B and 2B primarily, and doesn't seem likely to play SS. The Twins will need to figure out how to develop his power, after hitting just 12 HRs in 3 years at Oregon (and 4 in the minors so far). The scouts seem to believe that there is potential for more pop in his bat, and that would elevate him into a top 15 spot if he could.
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#20 - Ben Rortvedt C (2nd Round 2016, HS)
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Ben seems destined to be a long-term backup catcher in the big leagues. Scouts rave about his defensive capabilities behind the plate, consistently blocking balls in the dirt, pitching frame, and throwing out runners. He's also go the potential to hit a few HRs and will take plenty of walks. The main problem is that he's a mediocre hitter, likely doomed to be a .210-.230 hitter in the majors. MLB teams will put up with that if he's as good defensively as the scouts say.
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#19 - Wander Javier SS (International from Dominican Republic, 2016)
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The Twins poured $4M into Javier in 2016, and the returns don't look good so far. After hitting well in Elizabethton in 2017, Javier missed 2018 with an injury, and turned in a very poor 2019 season at Cedar Rapids. Javier needed a rebound year in 2020 to get back on track, and now he's already Rule 5 eligible despite having just 552 professional PAs. Javier should be better than a .177 hitter, and has a skillset that should play at SS, but his time is running out. He needs several years in the minors just to get back on track, but if he could, he's got the potential to be a top 5 prospect. Everyone below him on the rankings doesn't have close to the ceiling Javier does.
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#18 - Travis Blankenhorn 2B/3B (3rd Round 2015, HS)
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Like many other prospects in this system, Blankenhorn's strength is hitting the ball hard, and is a bit on the chunky side. Splitting most of his time between 2B, 3B, and LF (he stopped playing 3B at AA, though), Travis took a step forward in 2019 at AA and crushed 19 HRs with a nice .278 average. He doesn't take a lot of walks, and his strikeout rate isn't a big concern. He's on the slower side, and would likely be a liability at 3B and LF. He's got the bat to play 2B, and he's probably ready to get his first big chance (he got into 1 game with the Twins in 2020). Expect to see him on the bench and play a bit in Marwin Gonzalez's old role when injuries inevitably hit.
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#17 - Jose Miranda 3B (2nd Round 2016, HS)
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Miranda is the last player on this list to have been passed over in the Rule 5 Draft. He boasts a solid set of tools but nothing splashy - he looks the part to handle 3B, but his bat has never quite developed. In almost 600 PAs at Fort Myers, he hit just .659 OPS. Scouts think there's potential for more power (just 8 HRs in 2019) and multiple sources lauded his bat speed and swing, but so far he's been unable to realize his potential. He needs to take a big step forward if he's going to want to become a starter in the big leagues.

I'm attempting my first batch of prospect rankings ever! Here's how it will go:
 
I'm calling this an Aggregated Prospect Ranking. That means that I'm outsourcing opinions from several sources to form my own rankings - I haven't watched most of these players, so there isn't a whole lot that I can add from a scouting standpoint. I would, however, like to weigh the rankings to factors measured by others; for example, boosting a player's ranking due to position scarcity, or quantifying how their minor league play boosts their odds at panning out in the majors. It'll make for a useful ranking to look back on in the future, but just remember that I'm not an expert!
 
I will reveal my formula for ranking the players where they are in the final article... and there will be some selections that some will find surprising. But I hope you will enjoy it!
 
Sources:
MLB.com Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/prospects/twins/
Fangraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/twins
Baseball Savant: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/dakota-chalmers-663793?stats=career-r-pitching-milb
Other Prospect Rankings on Twins Daily
 
 
Honorable Mentions
Outside the Top 30
 
RHP Griffin Jax - The former 3rd rounder has been available to be taken in the Rule 5 Draft in 2019 and 2020, but with no takers. He's stuffed the stat sheet in the minors with consistently low ERAs, but does not get strikeouts often and his stuff is likely not going to cut it in the MLB. He's already 26 and in AAA, which makes him a spot starter at best.
 
OF Kala'i Rosario - A 5th rounder in the very small Twins 2021 Draft Class, Rosario is a high schooler out of Hawaii. Scouts expect him to develop some power as he gets older. I could see him cracking prospect lists in 2022-23 if all goes well.
 
RHP Bailey Ober - Despite topping out around 87 MPH, Ober drew tons of strikeouts and clean innings in his first full season in 2019 between Rookie league, A+, and AA. The Twins saw enough promise in him to hand him a 40 man roster spot and could make his MLB debut this year. Ober will likely need to move to the bullpen to get a few more ticks on his fastball, but his breaking pitches and command are top notch.
 
RHP Dakota Chalmers - Acquired in the Fernando Rodney trade, Chalmers was added to the 40 man roster in late 2019, meaning he's already burned an option. He has a fastball that tops out at 96 and has the secondary pitches to consistently strike anyone out, but he's outside of the top 30 due to an inability to throw strikes and a spotty injury history. If he ever does crack the majors, it'll likely be as a reliever since he's never pitched more than 67 innings in a season.
 
OF Willie Joe Garry Jr. - He didn't hit so well in Elizabethton(rookie league) with a .228/.301/.365 line, but scouts are never-the-less still excited for him. The lefty has the tools to be a CFer with a strong arm, but his bat has a long way to go. He's not much more than a lottery ticket at this point.
 
3B Seth Gray - Gray had a decent debut at Elizabethton with a .225/.336/.445 (.781 OPS) line. He already has hit for power, as he swatted in 11 HRs in his first 257 PAs, and drew 30 walks in that span. His fielding ability is questionable, as it's fair to wonder if he'll stick at 3B.
 
 
The Top 30
 
#30 - Yunior Severino 2B (International from Dominican Republic, acquired in 2018 trade)
Severino had a quality rookie season in 2018, but fractured his thumb in 2019 and didn't play much. Still only 21, Severino has plenty of raw strength, but has yet to put it on display. He's going to be striking out a lot. He has a strong enough arm to play any spot on the diamond, but his bigger frame will likely put him at 2B.
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#29 - Emmanuel Rodriguez OF (International from Dominican Republic, 2019)
We haven't gotten to see our top international prospect from the 2019 class thanks to the virus. He'll turn 18 this year and has a long road ahead of him, but boasts a jack of all trades toolset. He's got a strong arm and enough speed to play center, and even some pop in his bat.
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#28 - Alreick Soularie OF (2nd round 2020, Tennessee)
Many questioned this pick at the time, and you can count me as one of them. Normally I'd be placing a 2nd rounder coming out of college higher on the list, but there are too many question marks surrounding Soularie to earn a high ranking. He appears to be a one tool prospect - he can hit. He managed a .336 batting average at Tennessee and reportedly shows great bat control. He was not good defensively and has a ways to go if he wants to be a corner outfielder.
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#27 - Josh Winder RHP (7th round 2018, Virginia Military Institute)
Winder put himself on the radar with a strong 2019 campaign, sporting a WHIP under 1.0 and a shiny 2.65 ERA. He even managed 5.96 innings a start. He was old for pitching at Low A (22), and may not have the type of pitches that makes him a true threat in the big leagues, but the results are there. He will be Rule 5 eligible in 2021.
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#26 - Will Holland 2B (5th round 2019, Auburn)
Holland had a rough outing at Elizabethton hitting .192, Holland profiles as an athlete who is still figuring out how to hit. Fangraphs rated him with the highest "run" tool, but thinks he'll end up at 2B, while MLB.com's report claims he can stick at short. If he can hold up defensively at short, he'll have a chance to develop into a quality utility infielder.
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#25 - Danny De Andrade SS (International from Venezuela, 2021)
The Twins just acquired De Andrade two weeks ago, spending $2.2M to land him as their top international free agent of the year. He ranked as a top 10 international prospect in this year's class. The 16-year-old has a solid frame to grow into, but none of his tools stands out. We don't have many pure shortstop prospects in our system, so it would be ideal if De Andrade could rise up to be one of the better ones.
 
Coming up next: #17-24

Yes, the number in the title is not an exaggeration. The true odds of the moment we find ourselves in at the close of the Twins 2020 postseason campaign, brief as it was, comes to one in 69 billion. Somewhere in the galaxy, Zaphod Beeblebrox fired up the Improbability drive and Minnesota got caught in the wake.
 
Let's do some math, shall we?
 
Setting a baseline
 
Now, there's a very good chance you've seen the number 262,144 floating around Twins Twitter in the last day or two, and that's because if you were to flip a coin 18 times, the odds of each flip resulting in the same outcome are 262,144:1 against, or 218. Already, this feels bad. This feels unfair. We want to fight against this statistic. BASEBALL GAMES AREN'T COIN FLIPS, I hear you cry out. So many of those games were as underdogs against the almighty Yankees, surely the odds weren't THAT bad?
 
And yeah, from that perspective, you'd be correct. @Awoodruff3 on Twitter looked at the problem from a gambling odds perspective:
 
https://twitter.com/awoodruff3/status/1311415416456085510
 
28,524:1 against! Already, this is 10 times as likely as the coin flip scenario, so the sting should only be a fraction of what we currently feel, right?
 
Sadly, no. Here's how it really breaks down.
 
The Methodology
 
I have gone into the Fangraphs archives for each of the 18 games in the losing streak and made note of the moment in time where the Twins had the highest expected win probability. In 17 of the 18 games, the Twins were favored to win - and in a few cases, extremely favored - before eventually taking the L. With that information, we can look at the odds of losing from these moments where the Twins had the greatest amount of leverage to create a future other than the ones we find ourselves in now.
 

 
October 6th, 2004: ALDS Game 2
 
[table]
 
Game State


Bottom 12th, 1 out, Twins ahead by 1 at New York
 
Twins Win Probability


87.3%
 
How'd things look?


With Joe Nathan on the mound for his third inning of work, John Olerud strikes out and the Twins are 2 outs away from taking a 2-0 lead in the series.
 
What happened?


Nathan gives consecutive walks before A-Rod hits a ground rule double, followed by an intentional walk and a Matsui sac fly to win.
 
Odds of a loss


7.87:1 against[/table] 

 
October 8th, 2004: ALDS Game 3
 
[table]
 
Game State


Top 2nd, 2 outs, Twins ahead by 1 vs. New York
 
Twins Win Probability


64.5%
 
How'd things look?


Carlos Silva gets a ground ball out from Bernie Williams. It's still early, but teams in the lead tend to stay in the lead.
 
What happened?


Silva immediately gave up 5 consecutive singles and 3 runs before the 2nd inning was over, and the Twins never saw daylight again.
 
Odds of a 2-game losing streak


22:1 against[/table] 

 
October 9th, 2004: ALDS Game 4
 
[table]
 
Game State


Bottom 7, 0 outs, Twins ahead by 4 vs. New York
 
Twins Win Probability


97.0%(!)
 
How'd things look?


A-Rod concludes a 1-2-3 inning in the top of the 7th by fouling out to first base. The Twins have retired 9 straight batters.
 
What happened?


Yankees tie the game in the top of the 8th on an RBI single and a 3-run homer, game goes to extra innings, Yankees take the lead in the 11th, Twins fans begin to wonder if this is the start of something dire. (Narrator: It is.)
 
Odds of a 3-game losing streak


739:1 against[/table] 

 
October 3rd, 2006: ALDS Game 1
 
[table]
 
Game State


Bottom 1, 0 outs, tie game vs. Oakland
 
Twins Win Probability


58.3%
 
How'd things look?


Luis Castillo leads off for the Twins with a walk. This would be as good as it got.
 
What happened?


Frank Thomas homers to take the lead in the 2nd, and despite the Twins making things interesting in the bottom of the 8th, they would never be favored again.
 
Odds of a 4-game losing streak


1,773:1 against[/table] 

 
October 4th, 2006: ALDS Game 2
 
[table]
 
Game State


Bottom 6, 0 outs, tie game vs. Oakland
 
Twins Win Probability


57.6%
 
How'd things look?


Down 2, the Twins start the bottom of the 6th with consecutive homers by Cuddy and Morneau to tie the game, and Oakland goes to the bullpen.
 
What happened?


Oakland responds in the 7th with 2 runs off an inside the park home run.
 
Odds of a 5-game losing streak


4,181:1 against[/table] 

 
October 6th, 2006: ALDS Game 3
 
[table]
 
Game State


Top 2, 0 outs, tie game at Oakland
 
Twins Win Probability


56.3%
 
How'd things look?


Morneau opens the 2nd with a double, with Torii Hunter on deck.
 
What happened?


Morneau doesn't score, Oakland opens up a 4-0 lead, and eventually win 8-3.
 
Odds of a 6-game losing streak


9,569:1 against[/table] 

 
October 7th, 2009: ALDS Game 1
 
[table]
 
Game State


Top 3, 2 outs, Twins ahead by 2 at New York
 
Twins Win Probability


68.7%
 
How'd things look?


Twins take a 2-0 lead when Joe Mauer scores on a Jorge Posada passed ball
 
What happened?


Yankees immediately tie the game on a Derek Jeter home run, and the Twins never score again. Yankees win 7-2.
 
Odds of a 7-game losing streak


30,571:1 against[/table] 

 
October 9th, 2009: ALDS Game 2
 
[table]
 
Game State


Top 9, 0 outs, Twins ahead by 2 at New York
 
Twins Win Probability


91.7%
 
How'd things look?


After the Twins take a 2 run lead in the top of the 8th, the Yankees go down 1-2-3, and Joe Mauer comes to the plate to open the 9th.
 
What happened?


Yankees tie it up in the bottom of the 9th, Joe Mauer hits a double in the 11th that Phil Cuzzi incorrectly rules foul, and settles for a single- only to be followed by 2 consecutive singles that would have scored him had the double stood. Instead, Mauer doesn't score, Yankees walk it off on a Mark Teixeira homer, and just typing out this sentence makes me want to die inside.
 
Odds of an 8-game losing streak


368,333:1 against[/table] 

 
October 11th, 2009: ALDS Game 3
 
[table]
 
Game State


Top 7, 1 out, Twins ahead by 1 vs. New York
 
Twins Win Probability


72.6%
 
How'd things look?


The Twins have struck first on an RBI single by Mauer, and the Yankees have responded with a Mark Teixeira groundout.
 
What happened?


Yankees immediately take the lead with home runs by A-Rod and Posada. Twins threaten to tie in the 8th with a leadoff Punto double, but fail to capitalize. Yankees win 4-1.
 
Odds of a 9-game losing streak


1,344,281:1 against[/table] 

 
October 6th, 2010: ALDS Game 1
 
[table]
 
Game State


Top 6, 1 out, Twins ahead by 3 vs. New York
 
Twins Win Probability


87.7%
 
How'd things look?


Francisco Liriano has only given up 2 hits to the Yankees, who are down three and open the 6th with a Nick Swisher strikeout.
 
What happened?


The wheels come off moments later as Lirano gives up a double, a wild pitch, 2 singles, and a triple to give the Yankees a 4-3 lead. The Twins would later tie it, only to lose 6-4.
 
Odds of a 10-game losing streak


10,929,120:1 against[/table] 

 
October 7th, 2010: ALDS Game 2
 
[table]
 
Game State


Bottom 3, 0 outs, Twins ahead by 1 vs. New York
 
Twins Win Probability


66.5%
 
How'd things look?


Twins opened the scoring in the 2nd on a Danny Valencia sac fly, and the Yankees go down 1-2-3 in response.
 
What happened?


Yankees would later take a 2-1 lead before Orlando Hudson ties the game with a solo shot, but that tie doesn't last long. Yankees win 5-2.
 
Odds of an 11-game losing streak


32,624,240:1 against[/table] 

 
October 9th, 2010: ALDS Game 3
 
[table]
 
Game State


Top 2, 0 outs, Twins tied at New York
 
Twins Win Probability


50%
 
How'd things look?


This is the only game in the 18-game streak where the Twins were never favored. It remained 50/50 after both teams failed to accomplish anything in the first inning.
 
What happened?


Twins fall behind in the 2nd, and never get close, losing 6-1.
 
Odds of a 12-game losing streak


65,248,481:1 against[/table] 

 
October 3th, 2017: AL Wild Card
 
[table]
 
Game State


Top 1, 1 out, Twins ahead by 3 at New York
 
Twins Win Probability


81.8%
 
How'd things look?


You remember this inning, right? Twins go into Yankee Stadium and immediately knock Luis Severino out of the game with homers by Brian Dozier and Eddie Rosario, followed by an Escobar single and a Kepler double. 3 run lead, 2 men on, only 1 out. We've got this. Yankees don't have a CHANCE.
 
What happened?


Buxton and Castro strike out to end the inning, Ervin Santana gives up the lead on a 3-run homer, Yankees win 8-4, and everyone in my generation starts to develop serious anxiety complexes revolving around who the hell we hurt to cause this.
 
Odds of a 13-game losing streak


358,508,138:1 against[/table] 

 
October 4th, 2019: ALDS Game 1
 
[table]
 
Game State


Top 3, 2 out, Twins ahead by 2 at New York
 
Twins Win Probability


67.1%
 
How'd things look?


Twins were already leading 1-0 when Nelson Cruz comes up big with a solo home run against James Paxton.
 
What happened?


As per usual, Twins lose the lead immediately. They tie things up in the 5th, but that also doesn't last. Twins lose 10-4.
 
Odds of a 14-game losing streak


1,089,690,390:1 against[/table] 

 
October 5th, 2019: ALDS Game 2
 
[table]
 
Game State


Top 1, 1 out, Twins tied at New York
 
Twins Win Probability


53.6%
 
How'd things look?


Inexplicably known as the Randy Dobnak game, the Twins were statistically favored for the briefest of moments when a HBP and a single put 2 men on in the first inning with only one out.
 
What happened?


Those baserunners are stranded on a double play, Yankees score first and never look back. Twins lose 8-2.
 
Odds of a 15-game losing streak


2,348,470,670:1 against[/table] 

 
October 7th, 2019: ALDS Game 3
 
[table]
 
Game State


Bottom 2, 0 outs, Twins losing by 1 vs. New York
 
Twins Win Probability


62.6%
 
How'd things look?


The only entry on this series where the Twins were favored while losing. Why? The Twins opened the 2nd inning by loading the bases with no outs. This is a scenario where you are highly likely to score multiple runs.
 
What happened?


They didn't.
 
Odds of a 16-game losing streak


6,279,333,342:1 against[/table] 

 
September 29th, 2020: AL Wild Card Round Game 1
 
[table]
 
Game State


Bottom 5th, 0 outs, Twins ahead by 1 vs. Houston
 
Twins Win Probability


78.4%
 
How'd things look?


Twins open the 5th with consecutive walks while already leading.
 
What happened?


Strikeout, pop fly, groundout. Twins twitter immediately fears the worst due to the failure to capitalize, and their fears are proven valid.
 
Odds of a 17-game losing streak


29,070,987,697:1 against[/table] 

 
September 30th, 2020: AL Wild Card Round Game 2
 
[table]
 
Game State


Bottom 6th, 0 outs, Twins tied vs. Houston
 
Twins Win Probability


57.9%
 
How'd things look?


After loading the bases in the first inning and still failing to score, the Twins have done very litte. Still, it's a tie game, and the Twins are coming up to bat as slight favorites.
 
What happened?


The bats continued to stay silent, and couldn't overcome a 2-run deficit in the 9th. I cried, and then began writing this article as a coping mechanism.
 
Odds of a 18-game losing streak


69,052,227,309:1 against[/table] 

 
Conclusions
 
https://twitter.com/GoTwinkiesGo/status/1311406223019790336

It’s really weird to be providing a midseason update on Minnesota Twins prospects when not only has a Major League game not been played, but the Minor League season is all but cancelled as well. There hasn’t been anything of substance to look at, although my thoughts on a few players have shifted.
 
I can’t say that I derived anything of considerable substance from the week I spent watching back fields action down in Fort Myers, but there’s also been a (very brief) Major League Baseball draft that put some fresh talent into the organization as well. 2020 has been anything but normal, so let’s embrace the goofiness and get underway with the rankings.
 
2016 Top 15 Prospects
2017 Top 15 Prospects
2018 Top 15 Prospects
2019 Top 15 Prospects
2020 Top 15 Prospects
2020 Twins Draft Picks
 
15. Wander Javier SS
 
Losing a full season of Minor League Baseball may hurt no one in the Twins system more than it does Wander Javier. An elite talent who has fallen completely off the map since Rookie Ball, Javier is coming off a dismal .601 OPS with Cedar Rapids in 2019. He’s still just 21, but a year of missed development and wanting to distance himself from a season ago isn’t ideal.
 
14. Matt Canterino RHP
 
I really like Canterino and think he can continue to push up these rankings as a relatively high floor prospect. He’ll be 23 next season, but he put in a very impressive showing to start his pro career. Working 25 innings after 99 in college is a nice taste, and clearly the Twins were impressed skipping him over the Appy League. He should start at High-A Fort Myers in 2021.
 
13. Gilberto Celestino OF
 
Part of the package returned for Ryan Pressly, Celestino was originally viewed through the lens of being a plus defender. While that remains true, he reached High-A Fort Myers last season and posted a .759 OPS. The 10 home runs were a nice bit of power, and if that comes along with his speed and defensive abilities, he’ll rocket up this board. There’s clearly a reason why Minnesota wanted him on the 40 man this winter.
12. Matt Wallner OF
 
I’m higher on Wallner than most I think, but he is a bit more than the traditional booming bat the Twins have. There’s athleticism here and he can play on the corners in the outfield. His arm is massive, so right field makes a lot of sense. He was already looking like an advanced hitter, so the wiping out of 2020 may not hurt him as much. There’s always fallback potential here that he could get on the mound.
 
11. Aaron Sabato 1B
Continuing the mold of targeting thunderous bats, Minnesota went with arguably the best power hitter in the draft during 2020. Sabato can launch the baseball, and he’ll absolutely have to with little to now defensive value. The expectation is a big leaguer at worst here, with some serious thump as a consistent and regular producer.
10. Brent Rooker 1B/OF
 
Rooker could see time on a taxi-squad for the Twins in 2020, and it’s not hard to wonder on as his bat is ready. There’s uncertainty as to where he’ll play given mixed reports on abilities in the outfield and at first base, but the bat should hold its own. He’s got a different build than Sabato, but all of the same power is there.
 
9. Keoni Cavaco SS
Keeping Cavaco back for me is just how lost he looked at the plate in his debut season. The K/BB ration was nightmarish, and that’s the bigger story than where his slash line was for me. I think he really needed to get back on the diamond and in the swing of things for some positive steps forward. Obviously, this is still a first round talent, but it’s a wait and see approach for me.
8. Ryan Jeffers C
 
One of the biggest movers nationally in the Twins system has been Jeffers. He went from a bat first player that may not be able to catch, and now is considered multi-faceted within the organization. The receiving and throwing skills have sharpened, and nothing has slowed down with the bat. Like Rooker, Jeffers could be on the taxi squad for the Twins, and probably is a better option behind Alex Avila in the hole than Willians Astudillo.
 
7. Blayne Enlow RHP
 
Minnesota saved money on some earlier picks to grab Enlow given the promise they saw in him. So far that’s been greatly rewarded. He’s been a consistent arm, and while not dominant, has gotten it done at every level. Would like to see a few more strikeouts, but there’s a mid-rotation upside here. Another guy that could factor in depending on how big minor league depth goes for 2020.
 
6. Lewis Thorpe LHP
 
2020 was going to be a big year for Thorpe and it’s taken on quite a different shape. He was away from Spring Training getting reset for a couple of weeks and then look ticketed for Triple-A Rochester. With the situation as it is now, he could be an extra long man out of the pen. His stuff was better than the numbers said in 2019, and I think there’s legit stuff to dream on from the Aussie lefty.
 
5. Jhoan Duran RHP
 
The way 2020 has gone, and the limited season may actually accelerate Duran’s pro debut. I assumed it would come this year, but that wasn’t a lock. Expanded taxi squads and roster could certainly make an arm this good worthy of a relief look. He’s going to start in a traditional year. The near triple-digit stuff plays from the get-go. Bring him in as a middle reliever might be a nice boost for Rocco Baldelli, however.
 
4. Trevor Larnach OF
 
I’d bet heavily on Larnach showing up at the Major League level in 2020. He’s an advanced hitter and works the zone well. He’s held his own during Spring Training action and watching him launch a ball on his first big league at bat was a lot of fun. He’s the most likely of the Twins power prospects to remain in the outfield. Good athleticism, although it will play better on the corners.
 
3. Jordan Balazovic RHP
 
This season will present somewhat of a weird spot for Balazovic. I think he’s best utilized as a starter and not sure how much his stuff plays up in the pen. He’s got a legitimate shot to be top half rotation arm and pairing him with Jose Berrios down the road could be lots of fun. The Canadian has received lots of praise in the past calendar year and the stuff absolutely warrants it.
 
2. Alex Kirilloff OF/1B
 
Plenty can still make the argument that Minnesota’s top two prospects are interchangeable. I have Kirilloff second because once he moves off an outfield spot (as he already has) first base provides less value. He’s a pure hitter, he’s going to hit for average, and the power will be there as well. He was going to be ready at some point in 2020, and no we’ll likely see it sooner rather than later.
 
1. Royce Lewis SS
 
Lots of ups and downs for Lewis on the farm last year, but he ended on fire as the Arizona Fall League MVP. There’s going to be concerns about the leg kick until he consistently puts it together, and plenty still wonder if he’s not better suited for centerfield. Regardless, he’s going to play a premium position and looks the part of a perennial All-Star.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

As analytics have crept into the game of baseball and taken a foothold as the chief form of evaluation, players from all different eras rail against the game in its current state. The game has definitely changed to cater towards the exceptional athletes that play it today, and the sport has taken notice as well. Unwritten rules have forever (and will always) be part of baseball, but there’s a certain aspect still waiting to be phased out.
 
The idea that baseball polices itself has long been one that has held weight. As the game has adapted to use slogans like “Let the kids play” and adopted rule changes at bases and the plate, it’s clear there’s an emphasis on keeping these elite athletes on the field of play. With that in mind, it’s beyond time to put an end to the retaliatory pitch.
 
In last night’s Twins and Rangers game, outfielder Jake Cave swung on a 3-0 pitch and lined a single into the outfield. It was a 13-6 game and in the top of the 9th inning. Cave immediately apologized to pitcher Shawn Kelley upon reaching first base, and he appeared to have lost track of the count. Kelley overlooked the acknowledgement and after going 3-0 to the Max Kepler, plunked him on the arm.
 
Discussion from the booth, from Roy Smalley and Dick Bremer, immediately turned to that act as retaliation for Cave’s transgression. In a game that Minnesota was blowing out Texas, he had the audacity to swing his bat. Kelley couldn’t find the zone for a second straight batter, and then quit competing to hurl a ball into the arm of the Twins centerfielder. A sport that now has rules in place to protect its players, watched as a pitcher hurled a pitch into a batter, simply because he was upset.
 
I have no problem with avoidance of the mound, looking presentable on the field, carrying yourself with a level of self-respect, or any number of lesser unwritten rules. I do have an issue with the idea that a pitcher gets to throw a projectile at a batter any time they feel scorned or upset. While wearing a pitch isn’t the end of the world, taking a 90-mph baseball to any part of your body doesn’t feel good, and can certainly open the door to a more substantial injury.
 
There’s a level of respect shown to an opponent taking one base at a time or giving away pitches in a blowout game. That’s not a necessity though and is something the winning team does to show mercy. Expecting that to be the practice, and then reacting negatively when it doesn’t take place is lunacy. Minnesota wouldn’t have been afforded the good graces of the Rangers simply striking out should they have mounted a 9th inning comeback. Deciding when the game no longer is worth playing in the middle of it is not for any one person to opine. On top of that, this instance stemmed from a guy who clearly stated his intentions and felt bad for what he considered a misstep.
 
At the end of the day it isn’t that Jake Cave got his teammate Max Kepler hit. That’s what happened, but it was the idiocy of Rangers pitcher Shawn Kelley that decided an attempt to injure an opponent was fair response to him failing at his job. The easiest way to avoid having your feelings hurt in defeat is to steer clear of situations where you cause self-embarrassment. Last night the Rangers were an abomination, and then they doubled down on that fact in how they carried out the 9th inning.
 
Hopefully the Twins find no need to keep the beanball war going tonight, but I certainly hope every dinger that leaves the park ends with a bat flip landing mere feet from the mound and the pitcher that offered it up.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The first place Twins and the first place Yankees clash in a Strat-O-Matic battle of epic proportions! Both teams carry high-powered offenses in, and the while the real life game was exciting, this one was too... for a while.
 
Game Summary
 
You would expect the Twins and Yankees to score a lot of runs. Well, you won't be disappointed by this result!
The first inning went off with a bang, as both teams loaded the bases with no outs, and both teams came up with 3 runs out of the 1st. The Yankees got a RBI single from Gary Sanchez, an RBI walk Luke Voit, and an RBI groundout from Gleyber Torres. Meanwhile, the Twins got an RBI single from Rosario, and LF Tauchman errored another run in, and then Gonzalez hit a sac fly.
--
The second inning didn't have a baserunner, oddly enough. Then the Yankees struck back in the 3rd inning - Sanchez singled, Sano errored a ball at 1st base, and Luke Voit crushed a 3 run HR to make it 6-3. But that's not all! Perez inexplicably allowed the bases to get loaded again, just for Judge to hit a 2 RBI double to make it 8-3. Ouch. And now I'll have to dive into the bullpen!
--
Sano nailed a solo HR in the 3rd, inching the Twins closer at 8-4. Then the Yankees piled on 3 more runs in the top of the 4th with Tyler Duffey pitching, with a 2 run HR from Voit and a solo shot from Tauchman. The Twins scratched one more run across in the 4th with a Schoop triple and a Polanco triple... very unlikely to happen in real life, but I'll take it.
--
I got Lewis Thorpe to pitch clean 5th and 6th innings, which was nice, for a change. The Twins hitters found some life in the bottom of the 6th against Luis Cessa, as Arraez led things off with single, followed by two more singles from Garver and Polanco, making it 11-6. Cruz struck out, but Rosario was able to hit a sac fly, making it 11-7.
And in the 7th, Cessa returned to give up a double to Gonzalez, an RBI single to Kepler, and a double to Schoop, making it 11-8 with runners on 2nd and 3rd one out. Unfortunately, Chad Green was able to come in and save the day, getting three outs in that RISP situation.
--
Cody Stashak took the 8th and 9th and did a great job in his first MLB appearance, giving up just a single hit and a walk. However, being up by just 2 runs caused the Yankees to get Ottavino and Aroldis Chapman pitching, and the Twins' batters were blown away by these two. We've lost again, dropping our Strat-O-Record to 1-4. Very disappointing, boys!
--
Box Score
--

I think Taylor Rogers may have been the greatest Twin to be snubbed from anything since Joe Mauer didn’t get the 2017 Gold Glove. After earning the longest save from any Twins pitcher since 2000 yesterday against the Rangers (he retired all seven batters he faced) and becoming the pitcher with the most saves of three or more outs for the club this century, he made it clear once again that he’s definitely one of the best relievers in the game.
 
If you look at the group of relievers that were invited to take part in the Midsummer Classic playing for the American League, it doesn’t seem so absurd that Rogers wasn’t there. Aroldis Chapman, Shane Greene, Brad Hand, Liam Hendriks and Ryan Pressly all have very similar stats, with most of them being better than Rogers’. The only one of them who has a worse ERA than the Twins star (now at 1.82) is Hand (with 2.17). Only Chapman (12.98) and Hand (13.26) are striking out more batters than him (11.57).
 
So, if you think about it, it’s not absurd that he didn’t make the team. But it wouldn’t be absurd if he did either. He’s being at least as effective as the five of them. But Rogers has one difference which could give him the upperhand in a closer comparison with those pitchers. And I don’t think this angle would ever (or even should) be used to decide who an All Star will be. But it’s nice to look at it and have fun with the realization that the Twins have one of the best arms in the game.
 
Going straight to the point: Rogers is used in more important situations than those guys and he is more responsible for his team’s wins than any reliever in the AL. Like we saw before, his overall numbers are very similar or even slightly worse than the All Star relievers. But when you look at high leverage situations, none of them are a match for Rogers.
 
 
Talking about quantity, none of them was used in those situations as much as him. He pitched a total of 14 2/3 innings of high leverage, which currently ranks third in the AL. The AL All Star reliever who comes closest is Hand, who pitched 11 2/3. But the Indians pitcher posts a 6.17, whereas Rogers has a 3.07 ERA. The only AL pitcher who has pitched as many innings (15 1/3) and has a better ERA (2.35) than him is Houston’s Roberto Osuna.
 
 
No other pitcher in the AL has been more responsible for his team’s wins than Rogers has. Currently, he leads all of them in Win Probability Added (WPA), with 2.56. The second AL pitcher in that rank is Chicago’s Álex Colomé, at 1.86, which is still better than the first of the 2019 All Star relievers, Hendriks, at 1.82. Superstar Yankee closer, Chapman doesn’t have even one third of Rogers’ WPA, standing at 0.62. So, it’s safe to say that it would have been absolutely fair if Rogers was chosen over any of the current AL All Star relievers.
 
 
But now, I have something else to put up for discussion. Taylor is only 28 and, if he continues to pitch like that, I think nobody would have any objection to making him a Twin for the remainder of his career. So I should ask your opinion. Where in Twins history do you think Rogers could end up ranking at the end of his career? Does he have a shot at one day becoming one of the best relievers in club history?
 
 
Well, to start, I did a quick research, using Fangraphs’ Splits Leaderboard tool. Currently, Taylor has a 1.82 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and is striking out 11.57 batters per nine. The season is only at its midpoint and these numbers could very well get worse. But, if the season ended today, this would be only the second time in Twins history that a reliever has up to 1.82 ERA, over 11 strikeouts per nine and a WHIP of 0.98 or lower. The only other time that happened was in 2006, when Joe Nathan posted 1.58 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and struck out 12.5 batters per nine. Let me repeat myself: that only happened one other time in club history.
 
 
Nathan is the consensual choice any time someone asks who is the best reliever in Twins history. But interestingly enough, when you compare Rogers’ current career numbers and Nathan’s when he was 28, it gets scary. By the end of the 2002 season, when Nathan was still with the Giants, he had only one career save and -0.52 WPA. Rogers earned against the Rangers this Saturday his 14th career save and holds a 6.69 career WPA, which already ranks fourth in club history. Nathan has the lead with 24.55, but he didn’t throw a single pitch in a Twins uniform before he was 29.
 
 
Another angle through which we can also speculate that Rogers can surpass Nathan in the competition for best reliever in Twins history are their Fangraphs’ Wins Above Replacement (fWAR). Rogers currently is currently worth 4.2 career fWAR, at age 28, in his fourth year as a Major League pitcher. At age 28, Nathan was worth -0.4 and after his fourth season in the Majors he was worth 0.8.
 
 
So everytime this Colorado kid comes up to the mound this year, Twins fans should be extra grateful for the opportunity. Chances are we might be witnessing one of the greatest pitchers to ever play for Minnesota. Too bad All Star game won’t have this opportunity this year.

6/18/19 - Red Sox at Twins - David Price vs Michael Pineda
Box Score:
 

 
Game Summary
The Twins struck first in the second inning with Sano notching a one-out double, followed by a Jake Cave two run homer. It was a no-doubter, as I had a 6-12 roll, which meant that unless the pitcher is very good at preventing HRs, this one was gone. Price is good at preventing homers, but not great, so the Twins jumped out to a 2-0 lead.
The Sox chipped away at the lead as Betts hit a RBI single in the 3rd inning, but the bats exploded in the 4th inning. What followed was an error to get Martinez on 1st, a Devers double, Chavis double, Bradley Jr. single, Betts single, and a Benintendi single. The Red Sox took a strong 5-2 lead that they later strengthened to a 6th run.
The Twins fired back in the bottom of the 5th, though, as Cave lead the inning off with a triple. Schoop singled him in, followed by Garver singling him to second. We then saw Rosario hit a double and Cron hit a single to make the game 6-5 by the end of the 5th.
 
And then in the 6th, the Twins struck again! Cave hit a double (this dude is on a tear!), followed by a Schoop single that moved him to 3rd. David Price was pulled for Mike Shawaryn, who immediately gave up a game-tying single to Polanco. Garver then hit a double that scored Schoop, which gave the Twins a 7-6 lead.
 
But then the bullpen struck - Littell gave up a single, and I pulled him and placed Morin in with one out already recorded. Then Michael Chavis, the young Boston 1st baseman, nailed a 2 run homer to give them a 8-7 lead. This one seems like a game of tug-of-rope.Trevor May then came out to pitch the 8th and gave up 3 singles and a 2 run homer to Mookie Betts, making it 10-7. This is getting real ugly!
 
However, in the 9th, Cruz lead off with a single and Cron walked to get the tying run up to the plate. But Gonzalez and Sano both struck out and Brasier got the save. We are now 1-2 in Strat-O-Land.
 
Another one went down the drain today... but at least this one didn't go 17 innings. I think my record for my longest Strat-O-Matic game went 13 innings. I'd like to see if I could ever break that number.
Here's hoping we can win one next time out!

It’s that time of year again, and with the 2019 Major League Baseball amateur draft in the books we can update the prospect rankings. After picking 13th in the draft this season the Twins took more of a developmental approach with their first-round pick. Going heavy on college players following that selection the system gets much deeper. With early season performances influencing those already into their pro careers this list has some movement to it.
 
My Top 15 Prospects were last updated in December prior to the season starting. You can see that list, as well as the others dating back to 2016 below. Also, in this offering, I’ve expanded the total names to go 30 deep. While those names past 15 don’t have any breakdown, know that they are certainly names worth monitoring.
 
2016 Top 15 Prospects
2017 Top 15 Prospects
2018 Top 15 Prospects
2019 Top 15 Prospects
2019 Twins Draft Picks
 
30. Gabriel Maciel 29. Travis Blankenhorn 28. Griffin Jax. 27. Zack Littell 26. Jose Miranda 25. Yunior Severino 24. Gilberto Celestino 23. LaMonte Wade 22. Ryan Jeffers 21. Misael Urbina 20. Stephen Gonsalves 19. Akil Baddoo 18. Matt Canterino 17. Ben Rortvedt 16. Luis Arraez
 
15. Luke Raley OF
 
Dropping a couple of spots from the first 2019 list, Raley’s positioning is indicative of a strengthened system. He has posted an .878 OPS for Triple-A Rochester and is right there with teammate Brent Rooker when it comes to a big power bat. Unfortunately, he just dislocated his ankle and is going to miss significant time due to surgery. He’ll return late this year and hopefully end on a high note.
 
14. Jorge Alcala RHP
 
His first full season in the Twins organization has been spent entirely at Double-A Pensacola. The 5.25 ERA isn’t good, but the FIP and xFIP numbers suggest that’s not indicative of true performance. His 9.6 K/9 is impressive, and the walks are below his career average. There’s lot of life on this fastball, and he could pop up to make a splash for the big-league club as early as this season.
 
13. Nick Gordon INF
 
Starting the season on the shelf Gordon has just 26 games to his credit thus far. He got out to a quick start and has continued to produce for Triple-A Rochester. The .784 OPS with an ok OBP is about what you should expect from the contact bat and speed profile Nick possesses. At this point he’s probably more 2B than shortstop, and while he may be a big league regular, it’s becoming less certain that happens here. Gordon could push for his debut later this season if he continues along this path.
 
12. Matt Wallner OF
 
Originating from Forest Lake, Minnesota Wallner was selected with the Twins first round compensatory pick. He’s a corner outfield bomber from Southern Mississippi that should have an advanced approach at the dish when getting to the next level. He’s played in the Cape with wood bats previously and could take a similar path to that of Trevor Larnach.
 
11. Keoni Cavaco 3B
 
After quickly jumping up draft boards the high schooler from California found himself going to the Twins in the top half of the first round. Announced as a SS but likely destined for the hot corner, Cavaco’s bat is going to be what carries him. He possesses an above average defensive profile at third but should continue to display pop as he further develops his frame.
 
10. Blayne Enlow RHP
 
Recently promoted to Fort Myers after making eight starts for Cedar Rapids this season, Enlow has turned in 18 strong innings with the Miracle. The strikeout numbers aren’t quite there yet, but he’s continued to work on both control and command. Just 20 years old, Enlow remains one of the most exciting developmental pitching prospects in the entire organization.
 
9. Lewis Thorpe LHP
 
Putting more distance behind his missed time, Thorpe has turned in 11 starts at Triple-A Rochester this season. While the 5.95 ERA isn’t good, he’s been much better of later. The 11.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 are beyond impressive, and if he can keep the ball in the park the numbers really pop. I’d expect a major league debut to come at some point in 2019, and he’ll have a real chance to be a difference maker being more than your traditional soft-tossing southpaw.
 
8. Jhoan Duran RHP
 
A model of consistency over the past two seasons, Duran has struck out 10+ per nine while walking roughly three over the course of his last 31 starts. He’s just 21 years old and can pump his fastball towards triple digits. Finishing at Low-A Cedar Rapids in 2018, he’s made 10 starts for the Miracle this season. There’s an outside chance he could progress to Double-A this year. Minnesota is stockpiling some fireballing arms to be sure.
 
7. Jordan Balazovic RHP
 
The Canadian has seen a rise like no one in the Twins system this season. After a strong 2018 for Cedar Rapids as a 19-year-old his 2019 has only taken him to new heights. Making four starts for the Kernels before a promotion to Fort Myers, Balazovic owns a ridiculous 13.1 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. His 2.09 ERA is beyond impressive and the body of work spans 51 innings. He’s still so young and is going to blow by his previous career innings totals, but if he keeps this up there’s no reason to think another challenge is out of the question.
 
6. Wander Javier SS
 
Having made it through plenty of setbacks over the course of his early career, Javier is finally healthy and on the field for the Kernels. He’s got as good of a chance as anyone to stick at SS defensively, and this is one of the best prospects in the system. He hasn’t leapt out to a fast start at Low-A Cedar Rapids, but we’re dealing with a sample size under 15 games thus far.
 
5. Trevor Larnach OF
 
The 2018 first round pick was drafted for his bat and since turning pro all he’s done is hit. Making it to Cedar Rapids in his debut season, he began 2019 with High-A Fort Myers. In his first 61 games he has an .863 OPS and has displayed a very strong approach at the plate. At 22 he could be pushed with a new test getting to Pensacola in the next couple of months.
 
4. Brent Rooker OF/1B
 
Taken in the first round of the 2017 draft Rooker has done nothing but crushed his way through the minors as well. Now 24 and at Triple-A Rochester, he owns a .908 OPS through 35 games with seven longballs. The exact positioning at the next level is still up in the air, but this is a power bat that doesn’t have a ton of swing and miss and is going to rake anywhere he goes. A Twins debut this season isn’t beyond comprehension.
 
3. Brusdar Graterol RHP
 
Pitching all season at Double-A despite being just 20 years old, Graterol has been dominant in his nine starts. A 1.89 ER and 8.7 K/9 are both plenty to marvel at. He needs to hone in the command some, but for a guy who can hit 100 mph on his fastball there’s just so much to like here. Unfortunately, he’s shut down with a shoulder impingement, but the hope is that there’s no long-term damaging effects.
 
2. Alex Kirilloff OF
 
It took some time for Kirilloff to get healthy and into action starting 2019, and then it took a bit more time for his bat to warm up. Across his last 11 games for Double-A Pensacola however, Kirilloff owns a 1.033 OPS and has six extra base hits (two homers). He’s a great athlete who has hit in each stop across the minor leagues and expecting the numbers to climb as the season goes on is a very good bet. He’s probably missed the window for 2019 time with the Twins, but 2020 should have him more than ready.
 
1. Royce Lewis SS
 
Entering the season as a top 10 prospect across all the big leagues Lewis has scuffled a bit in his second tour with High-A Fort Myers. A .726 OPS in 46 games last year has been followed up by a .606 OPS in 62 contests this season. The plate discipline has worn down a bit with walks not being as plentiful. He’s also tallied less extra base hits and seen the power production take a dive. Just recently turning 20, Royce is still so young and remains and elite prospect who should stick at shortstop as he rises the ranks. It’s time for him to adjust, but there’s no reason to believe he won’t.

For those who may be new to this game, I’ll give a detailed breakdown.
So when a pitcher faces a batter, three dice are rolled. The white die determines which card will be used; 1 to 3 summons the hitter card, and 4 to 6 summons the pitcher card. The two red dice will determine the outcome of the play. In a standard game, one would switch out the hitter cards for each batter and the pitcher cards during any pitching change. However, for my setup, I will be using the Master Hitting and Master Pitching cards. This prevents the need for a card for each player, which is also great because I’m cheap and hate spending money to buy more stuff!
Here’s part of my custom-made hitting card:

 
But how random and how varied can each player be if they’re all using the same card? The answer to that would be in the player’s skill level. At the current moment, here are the skills that are recorded:
Hitting 1 to 8 (higher number being the better value)
Power 1 to 8
Speed E to AA
Fielding 1 to 5
Drawing walks 1 to 5
Strikeout tendency 1 to 5
 
And for the pitchers:
Preventing hits 1 to 8
Preventing HRs 1 to 5
Allowing walks 1 to 5
Getting strikeouts 1 to 5
Here is an example; the current Twins squad:


 
This roster was created with stats from Baseball-Reference with specific cutoffs for each rank for each skill. Now here is a picture of some of the cuttoffs:

 
It can take a little while to come up with the teams since I have to research every single player, but this process helps me becoming more informed about other teams’ players
If you’re unfamiliar with Strat-O-Matic baseball, there are also a few supplemental charts. There’s the X-Chart, which either sees a groundball or flyball get hit at a certain position that will be difficult to play. Great defenders will almost always make the play, but the poorer the fielder, the higher chance of an error or a hit (lack of range, I guess). Here’s a screenshot of the X-Chart:

 
And there’s also the Strategy Chart. This determines how groundballs and flyouts will be fielded, and allows for managers to try bunting, hit-and-run, bringing the infield in, and more. Since I’m playing alone (is that weird to you guys?), I get to decide what strategy for each team might be the best. This also applies to pitching changes and offensive substitutions. Here’s part of the chart:

 
With all this put together, let’s test a plate appearance and see how things work:

 
In this scenario, Jorge Polanco faces Ryan Yarbrough. He rolls a 4-5, which goes to the pitching card, with the number 5. With this roll, the batter will groundout (though all runners on base will advance); however, if the pitcher is a #4 or 5 in strikeouts, the batter will strike out. Also, if the pitcher is a #1 or #2 hitting-wise, the batter will hit a single. Since Ryan Yarbrough is a #3 strikeout-wise and #5 hitting-wise, Polanco grounds out.
 
I hope you understand how the Strat-O-System works a little better now, and I’ll be bringing you another game this weekend. Post any questions or suggestions you may have!

For those who may be new to this game, I’ll give a detailed breakdown.
So when a pitcher faces a batter, three dice are rolled. The white die determines which card will be used; 1 to 3 summons the hitter card, and 4 to 6 summons the pitcher card. The two red dice will determine the outcome of the play. In a standard game, one would switch out the hitter cards for each batter and the pitcher cards during any pitching change. However, for my setup, I will be using the Master Hitting and Master Pitching cards. This prevents the need for a card for each player, which is also great because I’m cheap and hate spending money to buy more stuff!
Here’s part of my custom-made hitting card:

 
But how random and how varied can each player be if they’re all using the same card? The answer to that would be in the player’s skill level. At the current moment, here are the skills that are recorded:
Hitting 1 to 8 (higher number being the better value)
Power 1 to 8
Speed E to AA
Fielding 1 to 5
Drawing walks 1 to 5
Strikeout tendency 1 to 5
 
And for the pitchers:
Preventing hits 1 to 8
Preventing HRs 1 to 5
Allowing walks 1 to 5
Getting strikeouts 1 to 5
Here is an example; the current Twins squad:


 
This roster was created with stats from Baseball-Reference with specific cutoffs for each rank for each skill. Now here is a picture of some of the cuttoffs:

 
It can take a little while to come up with the teams since I have to research every single player, but this process helps me becoming more informed about other teams’ players
If you’re unfamiliar with Strat-O-Matic baseball, there are also a few supplemental charts. There’s the X-Chart, which either sees a groundball or flyball get hit at a certain position that will be difficult to play. Great defenders will almost always make the play, but the poorer the fielder, the higher chance of an error or a hit (lack of range, I guess). Here’s a screenshot of the X-Chart:

 
And there’s also the Strategy Chart. This determines how groundballs and flyouts will be fielded, and allows for managers to try bunting, hit-and-run, bringing the infield in, and more. Since I’m playing alone (is that weird to you guys?), I get to decide what strategy for each team might be the best. This also applies to pitching changes and offensive substitutions. Here’s part of the chart:

 
With all this put together, let’s test a plate appearance and see how things work:

 
In this scenario, Jorge Polanco faces Ryan Yarbrough. He rolls a 4-5, which goes to the pitching card, with the number 5. With this roll, the batter will groundout (though all runners on base will advance); however, if the pitcher is a #4 or 5 in strikeouts, the batter will strike out. Also, if the pitcher is a #1 or #2 hitting-wise, the batter will hit a single. Since Ryan Yarbrough is a #3 strikeout-wise and #5 hitting-wise, Polanco grounds out.
 
I hope you understand how the Strat-O-System works a little better now, and I’ll be bringing you another game this weekend. Post any questions or suggestions you may have!

Welcome, readers! In past years, I’ve taken control of a game thread once or twice a year and ran a Strat-O-Matic game in real time alongside the Twins game in real life. With the game threads headed in a different direction, I’ve thought about how I might deliver some Strat-O-Matic content to Twins Daily in a better-suited format. After some deliberation, I decided to start a blog here and see if this format will satisfy the masses. Just so you know, I work a 9 to 5 job Monday through Friday and I’m also a content creator at Purple Pain, a Vikings forum, so my time is limited, but I hope to bring a somewhat consistent source of simulations this season. And with that out of the way...
 
Today I will lead off with a box score from my simulation of Sunday’s (6/2/19) game against the Rays. In my next blog posts I’ll explain my system of simulation in detail - I don’t actually use the cards that came with the game, I’m using my own custom version that I’ve been working on for the past 8-9 years. Strat-O-Matic sets are expensive and I don’t want to wait a full year after the 2019 season ends to get my hands on the 2019 cards. While my simulation isn’t going to have the pinpoint accuracy and realism that the original game provides, I think it can work as a quick-and-dirty version that is far more flexible than the original game could ever be.
Now, onto the game itself:
 

 
Summary:
This game went very similarly to the actual one, with the Twins getting a 8-0 lead at one point, as compared to a 7-0 lead in real life. However, no bullpen collapse happened and it was a rather uneventful outing. Mitch Garver kicked some serious butt in his first game back, and Sano hit a 1B, 2B, and HR. We'll have to see if Garver can stay hot and if guys like Polanco can have better games next time out.
 
To-Do List: Too many errors. The X Chart, which determines whether a fielder will make a play or not, is rather harsh on fielders who aren’t elite. The chances of rolling an error are far too high for my liking.
Also, I’m not sure what happened with walks - we saw just 2 in the game and both happened in the 9th inning. There is a solid 8.5% chance of a walk happening on any normal plate appearance, though that varies with the batter’s and pitcher’s tendencies. I won’t tinker anything in this category... yet.
 
 
Next Time:
A intricate breakdown on my unique Strat-O-Matic setup, and possibly another game simulated. I'm not sure how many games I'll get to, but I'd like to do a whole bunch (10 to 20?) and be able to see which players are doing the best in this simulation.

This content originates at Zone Coverage here -- please click through to read it in its entirety.
 
In the mid-1980s, MLB teams colluded to keep player contracts — both in terms of length and dollars — from getting out of control. And while we’d stop short of using the c-word to describe the last two offseasons, there are some stunningly similar situations playing out before our very eyes.
 
Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel are both sitting at home twiddling their thumbs as teams now wait for the MLB draft — early next month — to pass so they can be signed without draft pick compensation being required. Future Hall of Famer Tim Raines was in the midst of his prime when he had to miss the first month of the season in 1987 because the deadline to re-sign with his original club had passed.
 
Fast-forward back to 2019, and the Minnesota Twins are the class of the American League Central and among the best teams in either league — just one year after a disappointing 78-84 finish led to a managerial firing and quite a bit of roster turnover.
 
For the second year in a row, the Twins moved slowly — or maybe deliberately is the better word — in the free-agent market, grabbing players at peak value to add to an existing roster of exciting, but unproven youngsters.
 
For the first year in a row, it’s actually working.
 
The Twins come into Wednesday’s series finale with the Los Angeles Angels with the potential for a sweep and with a record of 32-16. For those — such as myself — who aren’t mathematically inclined, that’s twice as many wins as losses. It’s the first time the Twins have been 16 games above .500 since the end of the 2010 season — the inaugural year of Target Field.
 
That feels like so long ago, doesn’t it?
 
There’s plenty of credit to go around and no shortage of worthwhile recipients for it. That includes guys like Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver from within, but also pretty much every player the Twins brought in from the outside.
 
C.J. Cron is mashing home runs you could hang laundry on. Jonathan Schoop has more than replaced Brian Dozier. Marwin Gonzalez has gotten red-hot in the month of May and looks like he’s willing to play just about anywhere to keep this thing going. Nelson Cruz was mashing until a wrist injury shelved him. On the pitching side, both Martin Perez and Blake Parker have been better than advertised.
 
That’s kind of a lot of players to add in one offseason, isn’t it? It’s almost like the Twins had a bunch of payroll room clear up and…nah. We won’t go there, but it isn’t only because Joe Mauer came off the books that the Twins were able to make these moves.
 
The Twins were able to add all these players because the free-agent market is broken — and they were one of the few teams willing to glue the pieces back together.
 
Let’s look at each player individually:
 
C.J. Cron
For the second year in a row, the Tampa Bay Rays made the baffling decision to move on from a productive player whose salary should not have been cost-prohibitive. After 2017, that player was Corey Dickerson, who went on to hit .300/.330/.474 for the Pittsburgh Pirates while making a tidy $5.95 million.
 
Even if the Rays want to cry poverty, that’s hardly a kingly sum for a player who still had two years of club control and was coming off one of the best seasons of his career. Also, it’s not like the Pirates are the gold standard for taking someone else’s overpaid veterans — they might even be the NL’s answer for the Rays in that respect.

Even a really great meal goes stale eventually.
 
I desperately wanted the Twins to do more to upgrade the bullpen this offseason, and was supportive of the idea of them pursuing Craig Kimbrel at one point, but I'm out now. I don't really want anything to do with him.
 
My frustration with the bullpen inactivity was never tied to any one particular reliever. Things have boiled own to that, since Kimbrel is the last man standing, but there were several attractive free agent bullpen pieces out there this winter. The Twins didn't sign any of them. I'm over it.
 
I'm not saying this bullpen is fine as it's currently constructed. While Ryne Harper has been a pleasant surprise and the backed trio of Blake Parker, Taylor Rogers and Trevor May has mostly looked good, there are some legit concerns about the depth.
 
But bringing in a project isn't the answer. Kimbrel is one of the greatest closers of all time. There's also a reason why he's still unemployed. Here are a few:
 
-He has to be rusty. This is item No. 1 with a bullet. There's no way he can possibly be sharp, I don't care what kind of simulated games he may be throwing.
 
-He had a 4.57 ERA in the second half and a 5.91 ERA in the postseason last year.
 
-His fastball velocity dropped from 98.72 mph in 2017 to 97.63 mph last year.
 
-It actually took him awhile to work up to that velocity last season, sitting below 97 mph through April. Yes, he's been working out, but I'd still be concerned it would take him some time to get up to full speed.
 
-His ground ball rate dropped from 37.0% to 28.2% last year.
 
-His line drive rate went up from 19.4% to 24.8% last year.
 
-He had a worse first-pitch strike rate (56.3%) than Fernando Rodney last year.
 
-He had the eighth-lowest rate of pitches in the zone (36.6%) of the 151 qualified relievers last year.
 
-He walked 12.6% of the batters he faced last year. That is horrible. It was the 20th-worst rate among 336 pitchers who logged more than 50 innings last year.
 
In nearly every single positive mention of the Twins I see, there is somebody in the comments who calls for Kimbrel. I get it, I just think the idea of Kimbrel doesn't even accurately reflect who he actually is at this point.
 
If the Twins seek to improve the bullpen, they should be looking for guys who are trending upward. Or at least, you know, active. Maybe Kimbrel will be great, I don't know, but I am comfortable with another team taking on that project. There are other ways to boost the bullpen.

Here we are on May 9th and the Twins have the best record in Major League Baseball. They have had some low moments, but mostly everything has gone as well as, or better than, expected. Chatter about the Twins has been positive, especially after dominating a bad Baltimore team and then winning a series (and the season series) against the Houston Astros. A 4-2 road trip, including a dominant sweep in Toronto have put the Twins a season-high 11 games over .500.
 
I doubt everything will continue to come up roses for the Twins, it never does. They will suffer injuries and players will slump or disappoint. Even in the best of years, these things happen. However, it appears that in most respects, the team assembled by the relatively new executive team of Falvey and Levine is set up well to handle struggles and snags when they occur.
 
Let's look at what has transpired in the mostly cold and wet months of April and early May. With the exception of Miguel Sanó, the offense has been healthy and rolling. The Twins are in the top tier in the league for run-scoring, home runs, slugging and OPS. They don't walk much (most of the lineup is comprised of aggressive hitters), but they don't strike out much, relative to the rest of the league. The Twins are averaging well over five runs a game, playing many games in poor weather conditions. They appear set to challenge team records in runs scored and home runs this year. The power is well-distributed, with most of the regular lineup already hitting six or more homers. They have endured slumps from regulars and a slow start from Marwin Gonzalez (who has essentially replaced Sanó) without suffering much on the scoreboard.
 
Pitching has been a surprise. The team is in the top half of many key pitching stats, including runs per game, quality starts, shutouts, innings pitched by starters, and opponent's batting average. Three of the five starters have been outstanding, with a fourth (Kyle Gibson) rounding into form in recent starts. The starters good work has taken pressure off of the bullpen. The bullpen hasn't been spotless, but they've gotten the job done. The late-inning quartet of May, Hildenberger, Rogers and Parker has been satisfactory, if not dominating.
 
Defensively, the team is also doing very well. New acquisitions Gonzalez, Schoop and Crom have all played well in the field and the team has mostly been able to keep it's regular outfielders on the field, all of whom are plus defenders.
 
Individual performances of note include José Berríos ascending to ace or near ace status. Jorge Polanco playing good defense and breaking out with the bat, Martín Pérez finding a few mph on his fastball and coming up with a cut fastball to (so far) become an outstanding rotation piece. The catching duo of Mitch Garver and Jason Castro (with a few appearances by Willians Astudillo) has been outstanding with the bat and has been given credit for helping the pitching improve. On the negative side, Marwin Gonzalez hasn't hit much, new rotation member Michael Pineda has struggled mightily in his last four starts and several relievers at the front end of the bullpen have had trouble getting people out. Many more players have stepped it up beyond those mentioned. Basically, the good play to this point has been a team effort.
 
Can this run continue? Well, I think the competition changes with many more games against familiar opponents in the Central Division--three of those teams (KC, Chicago and Detroit) are in one stage or the other of rebuilding--so the schedule figures to be somewhat more favorable. I doubt the Twins can keep hitting so many homers (they are on a pace to hit almost 300!) and I also doubt the pitching will continue to be dominant, but there is no doubt that they are improved.
 
I think the need going forward this year is adding pitching. A starter to perhaps supplant Pineda and a strong bullpen arm would be helpful and when injuries happen, such improvements might be vital. The Twins are now considered favorites to win the Central, but they need to keep doing what they're doing.
 
Credit for this improvement should be given to Falvey and Levine, who also hired rookie manager Rocco Baldelli. They've shown they pay attention to the metrics that are part of the game now and made good decisions in putting together a team for today without breaking the bank or mortgaging the future. There's a long way to go, but the ride this year promises to be fun and it might be magical.

Over the winter, the Minnesota Twins invested heavily on their infrastructure throughout the organization. Not only were a handful of new coaching and developmental staff brought in, but new technology was introduced to generate more production out of the same players. We’re just a couple weeks into the 2019 season, but there’s some very promising developments that have taken place on the 25-man roster.
 
Any number of storylines could be generated from the early performances a handful of Twins players have put up. Without a bit more substantiation to the numbers though, I think it’s just worth noting some of the eye-popping production that has taken place thus far.
 
Jorge Polanco began his 2019 with a bang, becoming the 11th player in Twins history to hit for the cycle. Just a couple days later, he missed the feat by falling a double short. Through nine games, his 0.8 fWAR is tied for 8th in baseball, and is already half of his career best season (2017). A 51.6% hard hit rate is almost double his career average, and the contract extension is looking like a massive bargain for the Twins.
 
Mitch Garver owns the second highest fWAR among Twins position players, and his 16.7% barrels/plate appearance ranks 6th in all of baseball. He became the third player ever to hit two home runs off Jacob deGrom in a single game, and his offensive prowess looks as evident as ever. Behind the dish his defensive adjustments have been evident and generating extra strikes by presenting a stronger zone has seemed to show up plenty.
 
Jose Berrios has been as advertised. A dark horse Cy Young candidate, his 0.7 fWAR is tied for third in baseball among pitchers. Command has been sharper than it’s ever been, and the addition of a devastating changeup has him looking like a whole new level of lethal. Across three starts, he’s absolutely dominated the two better teams (Cleveland and Philadelphia), en route to posting a 2.18 ERA. He’s looked the part of a staff ace for a while, but the emergence to a true ace is something that would be more than welcomed.
 
Byron Buxton is familiar with slow starts, but 2019 hasn’t been anything close to that. He’s batting .292 and owns an .846 OPS through his first 26 plate appearances. Looking more aggressive at the plate, Buxton has sat on pitches to generate a career best 33% hard hit rate. He’s laid off the breaking ball down and away, and he’s ripping off doubles at an impressive pace. Staying healthy will remain a key focus here, but it looks like the breakout we’ve been waiting for is finally upon us.
 
We’ll need to wait for things to play out in order to draw any concrete conclusions this season. With over 150 games still to go, we’re just getting started. If any of these early indications for the Twins turn out to hold significant weight as the schedule draws on though, we should be in for quite the ride.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Talking about the Indians. When I looked at the opening lineup card I actually thought it was a post from a spring training game. That lineup is putrid. The great thing is the only person they are really missing is Lindor. Lindor is fantastic but he can’t make up for the rest of the poopoo platter that the Indians are going to trot out there on a daily basis. The Indians are going to be great at 2 spots with Lindor and Ramires and average at another with Santana. There is a good chance they will be below average to bad at the rest of the spots in the order. Even with that rotation, it’s hard to win every game 2-1. I wrote about this earlier in the spring, what happens if Lindor or Ramirez miss time or just simply aren’t as great as they’ve been the last 3 years? Then this lineup becomes one of the worst in baseball which is what we saw yesterday. Seriously Tyler Naquin batting 3rd? He wouldn’t even make the Twins roster. Lindor now has to wait for his ankle to heal then basically start spring training over again. He may miss the entire month of April. This division is absolutely for the taking. This isn’t an over reaction to 1 game. And don’t tell me they were missing Jason Kipnis also. Kipnis has been below average for 2 years.

Ever since the Twins decided to stop playing in a stadium that had the aesthetic of a bowling alley, it has felt like the Twins have needed to improve their bullpen. Now, I’m not saying there is a correlation here, but maybe the threat of a screaming foul ball taking care of someone’s shin made the relievers pitch just a little better in the Metrodome. Personally, I don’t think I have trusted a Twins bullpen since 2010 when they had Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, and, *gulp*, Matt Capps sitting out there in left-center ready to contain the lead. And my oddly specific intuition is mostly correct, since that year, the Twins have been ranked the 29th, 25th, 4th, 23rd, 23rd, 21st, 19th, and 18th best bullpen respectively by fWAR each year from 2011 to now. That comes out to an average of ~20th each year that is propped up massively by the one year it was actually good. Meaning that the bullpen has been near the top of the to-do list during the offseason for quite some time now.
 
This offseason was no different, while the bullpen was technically the best it had been since 2013, it was obvious that they needed to upgrade with some reliever additions if they wanted a chance to build a stable pen. And so we waited and waited this offseason as cheap, reliable veteran relievers were signed and so far the bullpen addition has been… Blake Parker. I’m being a bit unfair here because Parker had an incredible 2017 with the Angels and was still pretty good last year and there appears to be internal help as Fernando Romero has also been moved to the pen along with possibly Martin Perez or Adalberto Mejia. Also internally, Trevor Hildenberger and Addison Reed present themselves as interesting bounce-back candidates but I really only trust the server of sliders to actually do so (imaginary sliders, not real ones, it does annoy me slightly that Hildy’s best pitch is actually the changeup but that’s neither here nor there).
 
One interesting thing from the numbers I presented earlier was that 2013 bullpen, going from 25th the year before to 4th is quite the drastic jump. While I won’t be looking at that bullpen specifically as the target of this article, I will be looking at another similar bullpen example in the Padres. San Diego’s bullpen in 2017 was ranked 24th in ERA, 29th in FIP, and 29th in fWAR. In 2018, their bullpen was ranked 6th in ERA, 2nd in FIP, and 2nd in fWAR. These are all major improvements from only a one year difference. How did they do it? Well hop on in and I’ll break down how their personnel changed and what the major factors for these drastic turnarounds were.
 
Let’s start with the Padres in 2017, here are the 8 relievers who logged the most innings for the Padres out of the bullpen in 2017 ranked by total innings:
 
 


 
These players made up the majority of the 2nd worst bullpen that year, and here’s how they lined up in 2018 with asterisks on the returning players:
 


 
A few things here, this is now the second straight article I have made that references Robbie Erlin, I don’t know how to feel about that. Also, the Padres really blurred the line between starter and reliever so many of these guys logged innings in both roles which forced me to check how they got their innings for this article to be accurate which was a pain in the butt. Also, Jordan Lyles has a negative career rWAR, stop giving him jobs. And finally, who was the leader in rWAR for the Padres last year? That’s right, Hunter Renfroe apparently was, what an odd team.
 
Anyways, let’s ignore my semi-coherent rambling thoughts and talk about the topic at hand, the 2018 Padres only saw 4 guys remain from the previous year along with 4 fresh faces who made major impacts on the 2018 team. Where did all of these guys come from? Well, let’s break that down also:
 
Free Agency-Craig Stammen, Jordan Lyles
Trade-Matt Strahm, Robbie Erlin
Developed-Adam Cimber, Phil Maton
Waiver claim-Brad Hand, Kirby Yates
 
An awfully balanced way to build a pen, almost suspiciously balanced. Why is it suspicious? I don’t know, it just is.
 
Even those free agent additions weren’t big name tickets, as mentioned before, Lyles holds a negative career rWAR and Stammen was consistent for years with the Nationals but had missed two whole years of major league time before latching on with the Padres in 2017. Strahm was a talented lefty with the Royals who came over when the Royals were actually buyers in 2017 (if you can believe that) while Erlin was in the Mike Adams trade many moons ago (y’all remember Mike Adams)? Maton and Cimber were never highly rated prospects in the consistently great Padres system but worked themselves up through the ranks before getting their major league chances in 2017 and 2018 respectively. Hand and Yates are interesting cases. Hand was a struggling starter for years with the Marlins before San Diego claimed him, made him a reliever, and turned him into Andrew Miller Lite. Yates bounced around a few teams and had decent peripherals in some small samples but when even the Rays don’t want an extra look at you, that’s usually a bad sign. But he added a splitter when he joined the Padres and then became death, the destroyer of worlds.
 
All in all, this is an awfully long-winded way of saying that a team doesn’t need to make a big splash to have an elite bullpen. The Padres used wood, glue, and duct tape and had one of the best bullpens in the game thanks to their pitching coach Darren Balsley and a front office that has an eye for talent and the patience to let that talent develop. The Twins will look to somewhat follow suit as they advance in 2019 hoping that players like Matt Magill, Fernando Romero, and possibly an NRI or two can improve under the eyes of Wes Johnson and stick in the Twins pen to give them a similar boost that the Padres saw in 2018. Talent takes many shapes, sometimes it's hard to see how a player can become great, but oftentimes they’re just a few adjustments away from letting their skill shine. Along with improving internally, the Padres were also forward thinking on how they could get the most from their pitching staff as they utilized them more as “out-getters” rather than designating them specifically as “starters” or “relievers”.
 
On the outside, it doesn't appear as if the Padres made any major moves to go from one of the worst bullpens in baseball to one of the best. And even after they traded Hand and Cimber to the Indians, they went on to have the highest bullpen fWAR in all of baseball in the 2nd half! All they did was improve everyone by just a little bit and the effects were enormous, having a system of internal improvement will yield results that ripple throughout the entire team more than any single signing can. So, if Wes and the boys prove to be the difference makers they all seem to be, the Twins could easily follow in the footsteps of the Padres and have a great bullpen in 2019.
 
Oh, and last year the Padres paid less for all of those 8 guys than what Addison Reed alone made.

Picture this, I’m sitting in my 1:00 Anthropology class again absolutely bored out of my mind as my professor drones on about, well actually I don’t remember, but I hope it wasn’t important. Anyways, an interesting thought came to me; how did Derek Falvey build the Indians starting pitching staff? This thought came the day after looking at the Fangraphs projections for both Minnesota and Cleveland and realizing that dear God, Cleveland’s starting staff projections are hilariously better than Minnesota’s, even David doesn’t want to take on that Goliath. We can finagle about how much attention the Twins should have given the starting rotation this offseason, but short of signing Dallas Keuchel, trading for Zack Greinke, and then telling Jake Odorizzi to take a hike, the Twins starting staff was always going to be vastly inferior to the Indians. So how did Falvey do it? The man was boasted as the brains behind arguably the strongest rotation in baseball, so let’s dig into how he built it.
 
 
Falvey first joined the Indians as an intern in 2007 and then transitioned to Assistant Director of Baseball Operations in 2009. Falvey was then promoted to co-director of Baseball Operations in 2011 where he stayed until becoming the assistant GM in 2016, the same year he joined the Twins as executive vice president and chief baseball officer. Admittedly, Falvey’s role in the Indians front office early on was a bit less important than the one he has now with the Twins, so assigning the reason for these moves directly on him is a bit of a stretch. But at the same time, I think it’s fair to assume that Falvey played a decent role in all of these moves. I also have to appreciate the absurdness of some of the job titles they hand out in teams front offices, I could have made up those positions and you would not have been any wiser.
 
 

Corey Kluber


 
 
Corey Kluber, Cy Young winner, perfect robot, and the destroyer of Twins hitters hopes and dreams himself. This inhuman wrecking machine was obtained in a 3 team trade in 2010 between the Padres, Indians, and Cardinals. The Indians received Kluber, the Cardinals received Nick Greenwood, and the Padres obtained Ryan Ludwick. Nick Greenwood was worth -0.2 rWAR in the 36 innings he threw for the Cardinals while Ryan Ludwick put up a .659 OPS over 2 years with the Padres before being dropped on the Pirates. Oh yeah, and that Corey Kluber guy has done OK for the Indians so far.
 
For the life of me, I cannot figure out how Kluber became what he is now. At the time of the trade, he was just a body in the Padres system and wasn’t even ranked in their top 30 prospect list. He had a career minor league record of 18-24 when traded and was somehow even worse in his first stint with Cleveland’s AAA team. Apparently, he learned how to throw a sinker in 2011 and then won a Cy Young just 3 years later. So take that as a lesson, kids at home, just add one of the best sinkers in MLB and you too can win a Cy Young.
 
It’s a bit of a disappointing conclusion to draw from Kluber, but basically, we can just say that sometimes it’s the guys who aren’t major prospects who can turn into stars. If I had to assign a player for the Twins that would be their “Kluber”, it would Kohl Stewart. Stewart was initially a better prospect than Kluber but fell so far recently that the Twins were perfectly OK with any team taking him for their own during the rule 5 draft. Since then, he worked his way up through the system until he made his MLB debut in 2018 and became a personal favorite Twin of mine. He even features a similar sinker/cutter combo that has made Kluber an unstoppable pitching machine but lacks the true dominating breaking ball that makes Kluber so ridiculous.
 
 

Trevor Bauer


 
 
The most scientific man in baseball was a solid innings eater early in his career until he broke out in 2018 and changed to really, we have to worry about another one of these bastards now? And now we don’t even have Oswaldo Arcia to stop him, such a shame. Bauer was originally the 3rd overall pick in the 2011 draft out of UCLA. But he was actually taken by the D-Backs, in case you forgot. He was acquired by the Indians in yet another 3 team trade, this time in 2012. Bauer went to the Indians along with Matt Albers, Bryan Shaw, and Drew Stubbs, while Didi Gregorius, Tony Sipp, and Lars Anderson went to the D-Backs, and the Reds received Shin Soo-Choo and Jason Donald. Now, that is way more players than I feel like analyzing, but Cleveland made out pretty well here if I do say so myself.
 
Bauer’s path to the majors is a bit more straightforward, he was a top pick from college and moved as quickly as you would expect a top college arm could move. His status as a prospect was always top and while he was just a good pitcher for a while instead of a great one, he became the true thinking man’s pitcher in 2018 thanks in part to a new slider he developed himself.
 
 
Seems simple enough for the Twins to follow here right? Just use an incredibly high pick on an elite starter that sees the game like few pitchers do and is as dedicated to his craft like I am dedicated to the bagel shop on my campus. The closest comparison I can think of is Jose Berrios, Berrios was also a first round pick who is ridiculously dedicated to improving and has more work ethic in his left pinky than I have in my entire body. While Bauer is the better hurler of a round object at high speeds, Berrios has the kind of talent that even Phil Cuzzi could see and could become even better if Wes Johnson and the boys crack his secret code.
 
 

Mike Clevinger


 
 
The man from Florida who looks like a man from California, Mike was originally taken by the Angels in 2011 before they traded him to Cleveland in 2014 for the guy who sounds more like an extra in “Goodfellas” than a baseball pitcher, Vinnie Pestano. Clevinger actually pitched for the Cedar Rapids Kernels who are now the affiliate for the Twins. I have nothing else to add to that, I just thought it was neat. This was just about the definition of a throwaway trade at the time it occurred, but oh man should we really hate the Angels for this one. Clevinger went from an ERA over 5 in class A to you have got to be joking me, they have another really good starter now?
 
Clevinger was kind of on people’s radars as he was ranked the 17th best prospect in the Angels organization at the start of 2014, but his numbers up to that point were incredibly whelming. Much like Kluber, he was a guy that the Indians saw and thought that maybe with a tweak here and there, he could become something in the future. And credit to Clevinger, he was apparently all ears about doing whatever he had to do to succeed.
 
This is another kind of tough one to draw a conclusion from because “just find a guy who is a few changes that no one else can see away from being elite” isn’t really a good blueprint for success or at least not a consistent one. Considering that I have already forced myself to find comparisons for each guy, I will go with Jhoan Duran as the Twins’ “Clevinger”. Duran is a much better prospect than what Clevinger was but also switched teams in a trade during the season. So far in his short time in Cedar Rapids (hint hint), Duran has dominated hitters and looks to move up to high A Fort Myers soon. I hope he doesn't mind that I now have him pegged as the next Clevinger, no pressure there kid.
 
 

Carlos Carrasco


 
 
The cookie monster was originally taken by the Phillies in 2003 out of Venezuela. In his first spring training, he ate Domino’s pizza every day for 90 straight days because he didn’t know what else to order in English. I don’t know how he did that considering that Domino’s pizza tastes like the cardboard box it comes in, but to each his own I guess. Carrasco was also acquired in 2009 in a trade (I’m noticing a pattern) along with some other forgettable dudes for Ben Francisco and Cliff Lee. Carrasco was the top prospect for the Phillies and was ranked as the 41st best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America that year.
 
Carrasco’s journey to be who he is now took a while as he struggled with injuries and not being effective early on in his MLB career. Despite starting his MLB career in 2009, it took Carrasco until 2015 to pitch more than 150 innings in a season. The Indians took a very conservative approach by using him out of the bullpen often in 2013 and 2014 after he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2012. After working his arm back up, they unleashed him as a starter and he’s been a pain in the Twins’ ass ever since.
 
Let’s see here, a top prospect, underwent Tommy John surgery, used out of the bullpen at first… Folks, we already have the next Carrasco here in Fernando Romero. Romero arguably has the nastiest stuff in the Twins system but still needs to learn how to refine his game and be the nightmare pitcher we all know he can be. While it seems that Romero is all but destined for the bullpen in 2019, it could be that the Twins still plan on using him as a starter long term and will be in the rotation in 2020 when more spots become available.
 
 

Shane Bieber


 
 
The Biebs was taken in the 2016 draft which was the very last one Derek Falvey participated in for Cleveland before leaving for the Twin Cities. He was taken in the 4th round out of college and moved pretty quickly due to being a college starter and having some ridiculous minor league numbers (.6 BB/9, 2.24 ERA).
 
The Biebs is a much more simple guy to track here, he was taken by Cleveland and moved up their ranks quickly as he continued to perform well at every level. He rose up prospect lists last year thanks to his incredible command and was a top 100 prospect by most publications by the time he made his debut for the Indians.
 
Who’s the Shane Bieber for the Twins? That’s an interesting one to think of because the front office under Falvey and Levine really haven’t taken many college arms with top picks. This is a bit of a reach, but I’ll pick Blayne Enlow as the Twins’ “Shane Bieber”. Enlow was taken out of high school but was a 3rd round pick partly because the Twins saved enough signing bonus money in the Royce Lewis pick to pay over the slot for Enlow and coax him out of going to the collegiate ranks. While Enlow is still just 19, his projections have received much praise from scouts and being able to handle low A ball as a 19-year-old is pretty impressive. While it will still be a few more years before Enlow probably makes the majors, he could be an important piece in a future Twins rotation.
 
There it is, the 5 pitchers that make up the current Indians’ starting staff and how they got there along with their Twins counterparts. 4 out of the 5 guys were not originally taken by the Indians and 2 out of the 5 guys were never really big prospects at all while the other 3 were. Probably the most interesting thing to note is that none of these guys were big free agent signings or acquired via trade as veterans and only Bauer had any experience pitching at the MLB level for another team. Is it any coincidence that Falvey has been a stickler for adding long term solutions to the starting rotation so far in his tenure? Pineda, Odorizzi, and Perez were all obtained with 2 years of team control, but the plan so far has been to shy away from major rotation upgrades in the long term.
 
Looking into 2020, the current rotation is Jose Berrios and possibly Martin Perez if they pick up his option. Odorizzi, Gibson, and Pineda are all set to be gone, leaving up to 4 holes to be filled. Looking ahead also, the starting pitchers available in free agency after the 2019 season are very tasty, to say the least. Go take a quick look, you won’t be disappointed. But now that we know what Falvey did to build his most impressive rotation, will the Twins even bother with free agency then? The Cubs built a successful rotation through free agency in their World Series winning team, but I don’t believe the Twins will follow that same route. Instead, they will run with Jose Berrios, Kohl Stewart, Fernando Romero, Jhoan Duran, and Blayne Enlow, to take them to the World Series and you can bet on that.

A team barely alive
 
Some are saying the Twins should abandon the effort to seriously compete in 2019 and aim to reload for 2020 and 2021, when prospects like Alex Kiriloff and Royce Lewis will be ready to contribute. That's a mistake to me--with a payroll commitment of only about $60 Million, they almost can't afford not to spend some serious cash. I'll lay out what we can learn from 2018 and what the Twins can do not only to compete but to put themselves in position to win the American League Central in 2019, ending this post with my offseason blueprint. First, let's look at the year now past--not quite a debacle, but quite disappointing:
2016 2017 2018 changeActual Wins 59 85 78 -7
They fell off by seven games, which isn't much considering a 26-game improvement came about the year before. Still, everyone was hoping for better. Their Pythagorean wins (the number of wins expected given their runs scored and allowed) were at 79, so there's not much bad luck involved in that number.
 
Where did the Twins' actual decline come from? Let's compare this year's decline to last year's improvement:
2016 2017 2018 changeLuck -7 +2 +1 -1Hitters WAR 17.0 28.7 15.2 -13.5Pitchers WAR 1.8 7.0 12.3 +5.3
So here's the bright side: Twins pitching in two years went from the worst around to now above average. This is an incredible achievement by Falvey and Levine, the coaches, and the players. The Twins have released pitching coach Garvin Alston after one year to enable new manager Rocco Baldelli to hire the person he wants, but judging from the results, one would have to give a hearty thanks to Alston for moving the needle significantly in the right direction for whatever degree of influence he had. Their challenge now is to keep up this level of quality and boost it on the margins.
 
To say that hitting was a disappointment is an understatement. While the lineup didn't totally fall apart, they certainly fell two big steps backwards. Getting just a little better from here isn't going to cut it in the minds of Twins fans or for the front office. More importantly, knowing the specific players who should take the blame leaves me both concerned and hopeful--quite literally, the Twins supposed five best hitters (Sano, Buxton, Morrison, Mauer, and Dozier) all dramatically underperformed. In no universe did fans, writers, pundits, projection systems, Paul Molitor, Thad Lavine, or Derek Falvey think there was any reasonable chance that the five of them would combine to post a cumulative WAR under 1. When you would have been just as well simply benching your five best hitters for all 162 games, there's literally no possible way to overcome that. And yet, the Twins still ended three wins under .500 for the year, a mark far more respectable than what could have happened.
 
So the bad news is that Twins's best players now all have big question marks surrounding them. The good news though: 2018 was certainly a black swan event, the likes of which the Twins offense has never seen nor imagined. No one could have predicted it, and the probability of it happening again is exceedingly small. These players are all better than this, and we should expect this year to be expunged from their memories after they achieve more success going forward.
 
I'll break down the hitters by WAR (technically fWAR, or FanGraph's WAR), focusing on the players that mattered most. I'll list last year's players who have been replaced for comparison's sake, as well.
WAR 2017 2018 change15 Hitters 24.9 14.6 -10.5LF Rosario 1.7 3.4 +1.7RF Kepler 2.4 2.6 +0.23B Escobar 1.3 2.4 +1.1SS Polanco 2.1 1.3 -0.82B Dozier 4.4 1.0 -3.41B Mauer 3.4 1.0 -2.4CF Buxton 5.1 -0.4 -5.5C Castro 2.5 -0.2 -2.7DH Vargas=>Morrison 0.3 -0.7 -1.0 3B Sano 2.5 0.0 -2.54O Granite=>Cave 0.3 1.3 +1.0BC Gimenez=>Garver 0.7 1.3 +0.55O Grossman 0.8 0.7 -0.1MI Adrianza 0.9 0.5 -0.4MI Santana=>Forsythe 0.1 0.4 -0.3
Moves that worked
 
Sticking with Rosario in 2017: Rosario had a successful year in 2017, but many were worried that it was more of a fluke--that Rosario would return to a below-league-average hitter, as he was in 2015-2016. Instead, Rosario kept hitting at a high level and simultaneously improved his baserunning and fielding into also above-average territory. If he can maintain these tools, expect an all-star team appearance for Rosario, perhaps even in 2019. Under team control through 2021, the case can also be made that Rosario's trade value will never be higher--what kind of pitching riches could the Twins acquire if they offer Rosario and move Jake Cave into left? Still, the most likely scenario is that the Twins keep playing Rosario every night for a few years, and perhaps they should keep offering him long-term contract extensions till he signs one.
 
Trading Luis Gil for Jake Cave: The Yankees were never going to play Cave in the outfield, so trading him for a low-level hard-throwing prospect was perhaps a good move for them, but it was a great move for the Twins, as Cave contributed more to the team winning than Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Joe Mauer combined in 2018. It seems that Cave can legitimately hit and field, and so the Twins plan on keeping him around. He is perfect as the fourth outfielder for years to come. Before the trade, Zach Granite was struggling and Ryan LaMarre jumped over him to begin the year in the big leagues, but Cave's success led the Twins to trade away LaMarre without fear.
 
Relying on Mitch Garver more than Bobby Wilson or Chris Gimenez: Last year, the Twins were reluctant to trust Garver behind the plate, trying him out as a pinch hitter, DH, and outfielder. That's a problem, because Garver isn't a good enough hitter to be highly valuable at any of those positions--but at catcher, he's a great hitter. This year, Garver caught in over 650 innings, and while his catching metrics are overall slight negative, his strong hitting makes up for it. Good-hitting catchers are hard to find, and the Twins should live with little shortcomings in Garver if he can be a above-average hitter--that is, above-average for a hitter, way above average for a catcher.
 
Moves that bombed
Playing through lower-body pain: How many times do the Twins have to get bitten by this to change their emphasis? Logan Morrison (hip), Brian Dozier (knee), Miguel Sano (leg, hamstring) and of course Byron Buxton (toe) all tried to play either through an injury or come back too soon from recovery. The evidence is abundant that hitting suffers immensely when any part of the legs can't be trusted. Playing hurt often means playing to hurt your team, and it should no longer be tolerated, let alone encouraged.
 
Managing Byron Buxton's injuries and swing: Buxton is too good for this to be the result. By the butterfly effect, migraine headaches led to a broken toe, the already-mentioned foolish attempt to return too early, and lots of confusion over his swing mechanics. The new trainers, new manager, and yet-to-be-named new hitting coach will have Buxton's success as perhaps their top individual priority.
 
Failing to trade Dozier before the beginning of the year: The rumor was that, for Dozier to escape to the the Dodgers before the season, the Twins were demanding Jose De Leon and Cody Bellinger in return. The Dodgers, even without the benefit of hindsight, were never going to do that trade. The Twins should have accepted DeLeon and another lesser player as the best deal they could have gotten. It looks especially bad now, as the Twins' "best hitter" was not at all their best hitter anymore--Dozier inexplicably (was it a lingering knee injury?) went from being 25% above average to 10% below average in one year. Needless to say, Dozier was hoping for a hundred-million-dollar or more contract in his first free-agent try, but might now have to settle for a one-year deal and try again next year.
 
On to the starting pitchers:
2017 2018 change6 Starters 7.2 9.7 +2.5Berrios 1.7 3.3 +1.6Gibson 0.2 2.8 +2.6Colon=>Odorizzi 0.1 2.6 +2.5Mejia=>Lynn 0.8 0.8 0.0Santiago=>Romero -0.2 0.7 +0.9Santana 4.6 -0.5 -5.1
Moves that worked
 
Sticking with Berrios and Gibson: It took Berrios a few additional years after his debut to find his footing, but the patience with him is paying off. When you have a pitching prospect like Berrios, it may take some years of struggle before becoming a reliable contributor--Berrios was such all year, without giving the coaches reason to worry or doubt. La Maquina is under team control through 2022, so the Twins will pencil him in as often as possible for the next four years.
 
Gibson's struggle was ongoing for years, but this was the year he put all that behind him and had confidence on the mound for the entire year. I was among those who were ready for the Twins to cut ties with him two years ago, but he has proved me wrong by being the rare pitcher whose age-30 season is better than any year prior. We shouldn't expect Gibson to exceed his 2018 success, but he has certainly earned a rotation spot next year.
 
Trading for Jake Odorizzi: The Twins spent the offseason trying to get Chris Archer. When they couldn't meet the Rays' asking price, they went down a notch and acquired Odorizzi from them in exchange for Jermaine Palacios, who went on to have a poor season in A and AA and seems a long way from ever contributing in the majors. Odorizzi wasn't the near-ace the Twins were hoping for, but at a notch below, he was a much better contributor than Bartolo Colon last year. The Twins should not hesitate to make such a routine move to plug a hole again, as adding two or three wins in exchange for a marginal prospect is a bargain no matter which way you look at it. By the way, Archer struggled on the year and was traded mid-season for a lesser return to the Pirates, so perhaps it all worked out well for the Twins.
 
Moves that bombed
 
Signing Lance Lynn and thus blocking Adalberto Mejia:
I hesitate to call this a big mistake--Lance Lynn's contract was limited and the Twins recognized early enough that he wasn't the pitcher they thought they were getting, skipping occasional starts and pulling him early. Still, the Twins would have been better off trusting Meijia, Romero, or Gonsalves to take Lynn's 20 starts. The results would likely have been no worse, and furthermore perhaps one of those three would be a clear asset for the major league team in 2018. Instead, the Twins and Twins fans alike still are unsure of these three not-so-young-anymore pitchers and their role going forward. We can't second-guess the Lynn signing too much, as it was cheap and easy, and this was likely just a down year for Lynn, who should be effective for the Yankees or some other team for years to come.
 
And the bullpen:
2017 2018 change11 Relievers 2.4 2.4 0.0Rogers 0.4 1.9 +0.8Pressly -0.2 0.8 +1.0 Gee=>Duke 0.6 0.8 +0.2Kintzler=>Rodney 1.1 0.5 -0.6Breslow=>Moya -0.1 0.1 +0.2Hildenberger 0.8 0.0 -0.8Belisle 0.0 -0.2 -0.2Duffey -0.4 -0.2 +0.2 Boshers=>Reed -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 Tonkin=>Magill -0.2 -0.3 -0.1Busenitz 0.1 -0.8 -0.9
Moves that worked
 
Making Taylor Rogers more than a LOOGY: Being left-handed is certainly a blessing for most pitchers, but sometimes they get trapped into a specialty role. Instead, Molitor used Rogers often against lefties and righties alike, and he shined in the process, boasting more than a strikeout per inning and nearly five for every walk, and giving up the bare minimum of home runs you could ever expect. I doubt Rogers will ever be this good again, but you can hope he'll come close. He's definitely the kind of pitcher the Twins are happy to have for at least four more years in his prime.
 
Signing Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney: Duke didn't make himself into a top-notch reliever, but his 52 innings pitched were solidly above-average for a team that struggled to find strength in their bullpen. Rodney contributed just as well, too. Again, signing players like these (and then trading them away if the season becomes lost) should be routine moves that happen every year alongside any bigger moves. These players are often available each year, and the Twins' scouts will prove themselves if this kind of signing usually works out as it did with Duke and Rodney.
 
Building up Pressly and trading him for value: Ryan Pressly got some press after the Twins traded him for Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino, saying that the Astros recognized that he needed to change his mix of pitches simply to throw his superior breaking ball more often. It should not be overlooked that the Twins helped Pressly develop very well, and any tweaks the Astros have done are because they stand on the proverbial shoulders of giants.
 
Not signing a top-quality reliever: The Twins could have convinced themselves that Wade Davis or Greg Holland were worth big contracts. If they had done so, we'd probably now be lamenting how much we are on the hook. This isn't to say that the Twins shouldn't sign a more expensive reliever now, but only that in 2018 the options were poor and they were wise to avoid making a high-risk, low-reward mistake.
 
Moves that bombed
 
Leaning on Trevor Hildenberger: One of the biggest disappointments of the year was the failure of Hildenberger to step up as the Twins' next elite reliever. Did Molitor call on him too often--having him pitch in nearly half of the Twins' games? Did he wear down early and never recover? Was he thrust into a high-leverage role too soon in his career? Or is he just an average pitcher, and the Twins should not have given so much credence to his late 2017 performance? Hildenberger might be an area of focus for the new pitching staff. They have a lot of plates to spin in order to improve this bullpen, and Hildenberger might be the biggest and wobbliest.
 
Bringing back Belisle: This one's a puzzler to me: Matt Belisle was not a good pitcher in 2017 and got worse in 2018; why did the Twins sign him mid-season? The only thing I can think of is that the Twins wanted his leadership and cameraderie in the bullpen--to have him more as a player-coach and a mop-up pitcher rather than a true bullpen building block. Still, they must have realized that in August, as the end of July featured two bad Belisle outings that led to one-run losses. Maybe his playing days aren't done, but I surely hope they are done in Minnesota, although I'm open to the idea of hiring him as a minor-league pitching coach.
 
Duffing around the course: Tyler Duffey is just hanging around, not bad enough to be cut but not good enough to help the team win. I suppose he's better than relievers behind him on the depth chart, but I'm hoping the Twins bullpen improves to the point where it will be more obvious that the Twins can move on from Duffey.
 
Mind your own Busenitz: Alan Busenitz has been disappointing to be sure, and part of the problem was in keeping him away from the majors for two months, but he failed to make the most of his 23 appearances in the majors, showing that perhaps he did deserve to be in AAA after all. He'll be in the doghouse again to start 2019, and I have no problem making him earn his way back to the majors again as he's done three times already.
 
Subtraction by Addison: Reed was thought to be one of the top relievers on the free-agent market, and the Twins were able to snag him for only a two-year deal. He turned in very inconsistent performances in the second half, but I don't think this is too big a disappointment, and I'm glad he'll be in Minneapolis next year to bounce back and earn his next big contract.
 
We have the capability...
 
Well, the label "big spenders" is something of an exaggeration, but the Twins have the opportunity to spend more than ever before in longer-term contracts and set themselves up for success in 2019 and in their future. The Twins major-league payroll sits at around $60 million, leaving them $60-80 million to add for 2019 alone to reach even league average, and there's nothing stopping them from spending even more. The same wide-open salary continues in the future. It will be up to Falvey and Levine to spend it wisely, but they can't revert to Terry Ryan-style frugality.
 
Rocco Baldelli will lead that team
 
Their first task is to build out Rocco Baldelli's coaching staff. He should choose a pitching coach that he can trust, but also someone who can usher Twins pitchers into modernity. It seems currently that pitching strategy is changing faster than ever before, and the new pitching coach will need to manage openers, starters, quick hooks, and firemen--and nuture pitchers to throw more breaking balls, keep their velocities up as they age, avoid tipping pitches, prevent injuries, and manage fatigue better than any Twins pitching coach in years past. I have no idea who Baldelli, Falvey, and Levine should choose, but the choice is perhaps more important than ever before.
 
Better than they were before
 
The Twins' hitters have a few holes, and the opportunities for improvement are more obvious than last year. Here's how they should approach this team renovation.
 
Trust the supposed three best hitters: It would be far too hasty and foolish to give up on Sano or Buxton. Eddie Rosario has surpassed them and inspires more confidence for sure, but Sano and Buxton's trade value will never be lower than right now. Don't forget that they are 25 and 24 years old, 3-4 years before their statistically-likely prime. They still have growing and developing to do, and they were too good in the minors and in long stretches in the majors before for 2018's performances to be representative. Grant them a fresh start in the new year and I'm betting that Twins fans will be rewarded.
 
Trust Sano at third base: Good fielding has returned as a emphasis for the Twins, with Kepler, Buxton, and now Rosario helping out in the field, but to those names you can lighly pencil in Miguel Sano, who is just fine at third base, and far more valuable there than at DH. The Twins should keep Sano at third till it is utterly obvious that he shouldn't be playing there, and we seem to be a long way from that. Presuming that the Twins infield will be shifting much more than in 2018, the coaches will have to work out how best to play him--he can't be roaming in short right field like we saw Travis Shaw or Justin Turner do in the playoffs--but there is flexibility here and the coaches can make it work.
 
Sign a good-hitting second baseman: No, don't re-sign Logan Forsythe. The Twins need a very good hitter at second base more than they need a good-fielding shortstop. I'm not sure that Manny Machado is even a good fit nor nearly worth the money. I'd go with Jed Lowrie or Asdrubal Cabrera as free agent signings, but also look for someone arguably better on the trade market, like a one year rental of Scooter Gennett. The Twins have several in-house options for 2020 and beyond, so a one- or two-year commitment here makes a lot of sense.
 
Trade for a real slugging first baseman: There are a few disappointing options at first base on the free agent market, but there's a obvious name that might be gettable in a trade: One year of Paul Goldschmidt. I'd beware a bidding war, but trades for no-doubt mashers are not often regretted. If that doesn't work, a trade for Justin Smoak or Carlos Santana could be arranged, but the Twins should also look at taking on longer contracts if a good deal can be had for Wil Myers or Brandon Belt. But plan A should be Goldschmidt.
 
Sign a designated hitter: Picking up Logan Morrison didn't work out, but it was the right idea. Matt Adams or Lucas Duda could be a relatively inexpensive boost to a lineup that has been missing a go-to DH for years, though I still expect that Willians Astudillo and Tyler Austin will get starts at DH as well as corner infield positions throughout the year.
 
Plan on using Jake Cave often to keep Kepler, Buxton, and Rosario fresh. If any starting outfielder gets a nagging injury, put him on the disabled list without hesitation and keep him there till all are confident he is recovered.
 
Say goodbye to the hall-of-famer, has-beens, and almost-weres: Joe Mauer seems all but retired, and the Twins shouldn't entice him back unless it is for a true bargain on a one-year deal. Grossman, Gimenez, and Belisle should also retire and the Twins shouldn't feel forced to bring them back. Sadly, Danny Duffey doesn't seem to have a way back. I have no problem keeping him in Rochester in case he truly earns it back, but I wouldn't plan on it happening.
 
Better, stronger, faster
 
Improvements to the pitching staff need to emphasize faster fastballs, sharper curve balls, and above all, clear-cut quality. Lance Lynn or others like him should not be an option for this team unless they come even cheaper than last year. Also, the bullpen can't continue to limp along--the Twins are way behind in getting an advantage out of their relievers and it is time to end that.
 
Sign an almost-ace: I can't quite use the term "ace", as a pitcher in the top echelon is nearly impossible to get, but the the Twins need a clear-cut top-notch pitcher, and there's several to choose from. My pick is Nathan Eovaldi. With a 100 mph fastball and a tendency to avoid walks, he will give Twins fans both excitement and winning immediately. Trevor Cahill is another good option, or Patrick Corbin if you want to aim a little higher
 
Stick with what works: Trevor May might become great, we know Rogers and Moya are capable, and I mentioned staying faithful to Addison Reed. This gives the Twins four pitchers they can rely on--maybe not to be the top of the bullpen, but to at least stick around for the year.
 
Bring in expensive talent: I figure the Twins need two new top relievers in 2019, as well as one depth acquisition. Trading for any of these may be an option, but I think the bullpen is the best area to spend the deep pockets the Twins have starting this year. I'd target Jeurys Familia and Kelvin Herrera, and pick up a lefty like Jerry Blevins for good measure.
 
Manage the rest carefully: Hildenberger, Magill, and Busenitz haven't inspired confidence yet, so keeping them in Rochester till needed isn't a bad idea. Make sure they are trusted as true contributors in the majors before trusting them with a roster spot. Of course, we all hope that Hildenberger is very close to earning that trust, but there was much to cause doubt in him in 2018.
 
So here's my 2018 season-long roster, comprised of the 30 most important players, along with somewhat optimistic hoped-for WAR numbers for each. These numbers add up to a bit over 100 wins for the 2019 Twins. Most of these players will not hit these "hope" numbers, but some will, and others will come close, and a few will exceed them enough to make the Twins a contender in 2019. Join me in my optimism; a AL Central title and thus a World Series is within reach.
WAR 2017 2018 2019 hope CF Buxton 5.1 -0.4 5.01B Goldschmidt 5.2 5.1 4.53B Sano 2.5 0.0 3.7 LF Rosario 1.7 3.4 3.5 2B Lowrie 3.6 4.9 3.1RF Kepler 2.4 2.6 2.6SS Polanco 2.1 1.3 2.0C Castro 2.5 -0.2 1.5DH Adams 1.2 0.8 1.2 4O Cave 0.3 1.3 1.5CI Astudillo 0.7 1.4BC Garver 0.7 1.3 1.3MI Adrianza 0.9 0.5 1.0CI Austin 0.1 0.4 0.7SP Berrios 1.7 3.3 3.5SP Eovaldi 2.2 3.0 SP Gibson 0.2 2.8 2.6SP Odorizzi 0.1 2.6 2.1SP Pineda 1.1 1.7SP Romero 0.7 0.5RP Rogers 0.4 1.9 1.5RP Familia 0.3 1.8 1.0RP May 0.5 0.8RP Herrera 0.1 0.4 0.5RP Hildenberger 0.8 0.0 0.5RP Reed 0.9 -0.2 0.5RP Moya -0.1 0.1 0.3RP Busenitz 0.1 -0.8 0.3RP Magill -0.3 0.2 TEAM WAR 36.8 28.8 52.0Wins 85 78 100

The one sport that stands to benefit most from advances in technology is America’s Pastime. My colleague Ben Beecken shares that sentiment and understands baseball’s big problem and how to solve it. But as a semi-traditionalist baseball fan, I’m not ready to take the umpires off the field in favor of robots.
 
This was originally published at Grandstand Central.
 
Something must be done, obviously, and Major League Baseball owners are apparently pushing Commissioner Rob Manfred to make “bold” changes to address what they believe to be a pace-of-play problem caused by the increased employment of defensive shifts. But baseball doesn’t have a pace-of-play problem; it has a lack-of-action problem that an electronic strike zone can solve without taking umpires’ jobs.
 
Increased Action Makes Pace of Play Irrelevant
“Time flies when you’re having fun” they say, and that goes for a three-plus-hour-long baseball game, too. Shortening the game or speeding it up isn’t going to make the game more appealing to young people. You need action to appeal to the all-time low attention spans of young people, or they’ll just find their entertainment on that computer in their pocket. MLB isn’t providing that action and hasn’t for a decade or so.
 
Thus far this season, MLB’s collective batting average is .248 — the 21st-worst league batting average since 1871, according to Baseball Reference. Runs are down to 1956 levels, but on-base percentages, upon which run production depends, have remained steady, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney. But there’s never been more strikeouts in the bigs.
 
The league is on pace to break the strikeout record set last year, and the year before that, and in each of the eight years prior. That’s a decade’s worth of record-setting strikeout totals, so no one should be surprised by how often professional hitters are failing to hit. And you can’t blame defensive shifts for strikeouts.
 
This idea that the increased employment of defensive shifts has forced hitters to alter their approach at the plate to increase their “launch angle” and “exit velocity” to hit over the shift is ridiculous. Defensive shifts don’t force hitters to do anything except exactly what hitters have been expected to do since the game’s inception: hit it where they ain’t. If any professional ballplayer could bunt these days, and every one of them should be capable, or if managers valued baserunners over extra-base-hit potential, defensive shifts would all but disappear except for pull-happy, power hitters who aren’t paid to bunt — ever. The defense is the one taking a risk by shifting; most hitters risk nothing except their batting averages trying to hit over the shift and into the stands. We shouldn’t want more hitters bunting, however. We should want more action occurring from hitters hitting — or better yet, driving the ball.
 
Some of those hitters, like the Cubs’ Daniel Murphy, have explained why they don’t bunt against the shift despite having a gimme single if they can get it in play past the pitcher on the vacated half of the infield. Murphy’s reasoning is that he’s more valuable to his team pursuing extra-base hits rather than occupying first base and waiting for another two teammates to hit singles to score him given his lack of speed. “It’s really difficult to get three hits in one inning,” he told ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, citing “how good pitchers are now” as a reason.
 
The Evolution of Pitching is to Blame for Baseball’s Problem
Young fans are avoiding baseball because it’s boring. Hitters can’t hit because pitching is too good. Many hitters, like former MVP and batting champion Justin Morneau, say a hitter can expect one hittable pitch per plate appearance, and hittable pitches are fewer and farther between in today’s MLB than ever before.
Batters aren’t looking to get the ball in the air more often to avoid hitting into defensive shifts. Batters are looking to get the ball in the air more often because there are fewer pitches thrown they are physically capable of hitting hard in the air. There are fewer pitches thrown that have extra-base-hit potential.Since 2002, swings on pitches outside the strike zone have increased 12.7 percent, resulting in an all-time low contact rate and all-time high swing-and-miss rate.
In 2010, 50.2 percent of all pitches thrown in MLB were in the strike zone, according to FanGraphs. This season it’s down to 47.9 percent, and despite the percentage of swings at pitches in the zone at an all-time high over the 11-year history of this research, the contact percentage on those strikes is at an all-time low. Contact on pitches outside the strike zone is also at an all-time low, but why?
 
Reliance on Relief Pitchers Contributes to Baseball’s Problem
Before defensive shifts became the norm and launch angle was ever uttered, the approach to pitching had already evolved immensely in MLB. John McGraw had a dedicated relief pitcher on his New York Giants roster as early as 1905, according to the research of Bryan Soderholm-Difatte for “America’s Game.” That tactic became more popular in the 1920s after Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown’s career was shortened considerably having served as the Cubs’ ace starter and ace reliever from 1908 to 1911.
 
Even though the lengths of MLB pitchers’ careers were shortened by the now-incomprehensible number of innings pitched over a hundred years ago, there are still pitchers calling for starters to go longer in games and ignore pitch counts.
 
Hall of Fame pitcher Bert Blyleven reminding MLB’s aging audience that starters were expected to finish games as recent as the 1980s should consider how effective he and his peers were the third and fourth time through a lineup instead of calling it evidence that throwing more pitches leads to fewer injuries.
 
Real research conducted by real physicians found that throwing fastballs, not curveballs, is linked to Tommy John surgery, according to Sports Illustrated’s Ian McMahan. Blyleven made his living with his curveball, which is why he’s a terrible spokesperson for getting rid of the pitch count and treating today’s starting pitchers like it’s 1971.
 
Over his career, Blyleven allowed an OPS of .679 when pitching to opponents for a third time and a .711 OPS when seeing hitters a fourth time in a game. That’s respectable, but according to Total OPS+, or tOPS+, Blyleven’s teams, on average, would have been better off had Blyleven never pitched to a hitter a third or fourth time. That is, of course, if there was a relief pitcher on the team with a better tOPS+ when facing hitters for the first time in relief than Blyleven’s tOPS+ when facing hitters a third or fourth time in a game.
 
In 1971, at age 20, Blyleven’s tOPS+ against batters in their third plate appearance of a game was a fantastic 77 (the further below 100 the better a pitcher was in that particular instance). Only Minnesota closer Tom Hall was more effective in his first time facing batters as a reliever than Blyleven was facing batters a third time as a starter. And while Blyleven struggled a bit when facing batters a second time (107 tOPS+), he certainly had a good feel for his curveball when they stepped to the plate a third time.
 
Blyleven’s struggles the second time through lineups persisted throughout his career, but he actually got better as the game went on because he was throwing mostly curveballs, not fastballs. In 1986, Blyleven allowed an .853 OPS to hitters in their second plate appearance. But in their third plate appearance, opponents’ OPS was down to .733 and back up to .828 in their fourth look at Bert. So Blyleven, besides a knuckleballer, is the last person who should be calling for today’s pitchers to go longer in games because he was spending the early innings “finding” his curveball so he could throw it more often and more effectively late in games while pitchers today are throwing far more fastballs and fast breaking balls than he or anyone else in his era was throwing.
 
Reliance on Velocity Contributes to Baseball’s Problem
Since the 1980s, when the curveball gave way to the slider as the breaking ball of choice, pitchers have been throwing more fastballs and are understandably less effective against hitters a third and fourth time given that approach, losing their velocity and, in turn, movement. A curveball is difficult to track regardless of inning, but a fastball can be timed in a single plate appearance and exploited in the next. Sliders and cutters slide and cut less with less velocity, which is lost by pitchers faster in games these days due to the volume of fastballs and fast breaking balls thrown.
 
Since pitchers have been relying on fastballs more so than breaking balls, and rather effectively given the aforementioned statistics, pitchers ought not throw as many pitches as a curveball specialist given the medical research previously cited. Hence the advent of the pitch count.
 
Managers want to keep their starting pitchers healthy and able to start every five days, and the pitch count provides them with a guide for attempting to do so. But managers’ number one priority is winning ballgames, and throwing four or five electric arms at a lineup instead of one or two increases their chances to win games and preserve the health of their pitchers. But it doesn’t matter how fresh the arm or how electric the stuff if pitches thrown in the strike zone aren’t called strikes. Reliance on Humans Contributes to Baseball’s Problem
Baseball purists like my attorney and Blyleven think it’s the human element home plate umpires provide that makes the game of baseball great. Each home plate umpire having his (and “his” sadly is the proper pronoun, at least in MLB) own unique, strike zone does make the game great. It sparks dugout chatter and builds camaraderie as teammates badmouth that day’s enemy behind the plate while trying to figure out the one 60 feet, six inches in front of it.
 
Then questionable calls lead to looks of “whoa” directed at the home plate umpire, culminating in confrontation and eventual ejections followed by the truly inspired, laid-bare performances in response, as if these men, like all great thespians, forget they have an audience. Now that’s drama.
 
There’s nothing more entertaining in baseball than a player or manager getting their money’s worth after being tossed from a game. Maybe a three-homer game or a straight steal of home could rival Ron Gardenhire’s red-faced rants or the legend of Lou Piniella’s interpretive, dirt dances, but hitting for the cycle pales in comparison. An ejection can invigorate both a team and crowd for the entirety of the game like winning a fight in hockey. The cycle climaxes with a curtain call lasting a few minutes, while the ejected entertainers, also deserving of a curtain call, make for a lonely locker room to find some semblance of solace in a cold shower and comfort food.
 
Frankly, I think the decline in ejections has been detrimental to baseball and contributed to baseball’s problem attracting young fans, who have gravitated toward the soap operatic drama of soccer instead. Bad actors with no respect for the theatre of sport are taking advantage of baseball’s dwindling drama thanks to a surplus of soccer drama performed by characters like The Zlatan — too unreal for even MTV’s Real World.
 
The advent of replay has scrubbed the sport of baseball relatively clean when it comes to disputing plays on the bases, and that’s an unfortunate but necessary sacrifice to get the calls right. An electronic strike zone will have a similar effect, removing some of the drama that makes a baseball game both joyous and enraging for all involved.
I like when an incorrect call goes my team’s way as much as the next fan, and I scream at the television when an umpire or official misses one. Officiating-hating is part of the fun for fans of all sports. There’s a problem, though, when pitches outside the strike zone are called strikes in a game where even the best players fail seven out of 10 times. It makes a game ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian calls “the hardest game in the world to play” even harder for hitters.
 
Reliance on Spin Rate Contributes to Baseball’s Problem
Pitches these days are harder to hit than they’ve ever been. On average, they’re being thrown harder than they’ve ever been. Fastballs, split-finger fastballs, sinkers, sliders and even change-ups are being thrown harder in 2018 than they have since 2007, which is where FanGraphs’ dataset starts. Pitches are moving more, too. Sliders, on average, have more horizontal movement than ever, with a focus on spin rate making pitches move more and making it harder for hitters to recognize pitches.Not only has fastball velocity increased almost annually in MLB, but almost every pitch is being thrown faster than ever before.
So not only are we expecting MLB hitters to hit the nastiest pitches ever pitched, but we’re expecting them to hit the highest volume of nasty pitches despite an inconsistent strike zone that changes everyday, or twice daily for doubleheaders. The players are quite literally playing by different rules every game, and while Babe Ruth and Ted Williams dealt with similarly subjective strike zones in their eras, neither they nor the umpires of the day had to track an exploding slider or sinking and cutting fastballs thrown in the mid-90s all game, every game. Williams was subjected to defensive shifts, though, and they didn’t ruin the game back in the 1940s and won’t now.
 
The Solution to Baseball’s Problem
Baseball is a contact sport in that it requires contact between bat and ball to provide audiences action. “Strikeouts are boring. Besides that they’re Fascist,” as Crash Davis correctly claimed in Bull Durham. “Throw some ground balls. It’s more democratic.” Contact equals action, and a lack of contact is a lack of action.
 
Baseball’s problem attracting young fans is a result of that lack of action, not pace of play. You could shorten games to a two-hour time limit and without contact, the game would still be boring to young people. But the game wasn’t boring when Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire were launching steroid-fueled bombs into the stratosphere back in the 1990s because we had contact — epic contact.
 
Since ending MLB’s performance-enhancing drug policy is unlikely, using technology already available and already being used to train umpires to provide players with a consistent strike zone will lower chase and swing-and-miss rates, increase contact rates and, in turn, increase action. If baseball wants to attract young fans, instead of Commissioner Manfred altering the rules to limit defensive shifts or defensive positioning, he should consider implementing an electronic strike zone that’s consistent from game to game, umpire to umpire.
 
The most fun I have watching the lowly Twins is when Logan Forsythe runs out to left field from second base to serve as a fourth outfielder and then running back to the infield. Players are probably getting more exercise than they ever have in the history of the game, and movement is action.
 
Defensive shifts are the most interesting thing baseball’s had to offer since the Steroid Era. That is until Tampa Bay’s use of relief pitchers to start games becomes the norm so starters can relieve the “openers” and face hitters during their higher-leverage plate appearances the second, third and fourth time through the lineup. But instead of hitters figuring out a starting pitcher in their second or third at-bat, they’re figuring out a new pitcher in their second at-bat. If you thought strikeouts were out of control now, just wait until flamethrowing relievers are facing hitters at their most vulnerable — their first plate appearance — and then starting pitchers come in and make hitters relive the horror of their first plate appearance all over again.
 
Not only do both hitters and pitchers have to figure each other out throughout the course of a game, but they have to figure out the home plate umpire as well. Pitchers test the edges of the plate to see how wide the umpire’s strike zone is that day, resulting in plenty of pitches thrown out of the strike zone slowing play to a halt. A ball off the plate that doesn’t entice a swing is a complete lack of action, and a ball off the plate that does entice a swing tends to result in poor contact and little action. Until pitchers are forced to throw strikes, why would they? Greg Maddux carved out a Hall of Fame career pitching out of the strike zone, and he didn’t have the velocity or wicked movement pitchers feature today.
 
So what’s the answer to baseball’s problem? No, not robots, but technologically enhanced umpires. I’m not talking about creating special headgear that projects the strike zone on a see-through visor like Google Glasses and makes blue look like RoboUmp, although that’s a cool option. That way home plate umpires still feel useful and in control of the game, with technology assisting the umpire in calling a consistent strike zone instead of dictating balls and strikes. Technology is a tool humans should use to do work better; it should not be a means to do away with work altogether.
 
A less cool but effective option would be to put a microphone in the ear or a buzzer in the pocket of home plate umpires that indicates when a pitch is thrown in the electronic strike zone, and the technology is close to doing so accurately. That way hitters come to the plate every game knowing exactly what a strike is and is not, so they swing at more strikes instead of chasing balls incorrectly called strikes, which will result in more contact, better contact and fewer strikeouts despite defensive shifts. It will also give managers one less reason to argue with umpires, which, unfortunately, might be one of the last reasons left. But the electronic strike zone will make a three-plus-hour game more appealing to the short attention spans of young fans.

The Minnesota Twins employed the best catcher in baseball up until 2013, and over his tenure behind the plate, Joe Mauer proved to be one of the five or ten best to ever play the position. Since then however, the role has become somewhat of a black hole for the organization. With Jason Castro shelved in 2018 more question marks have surfaced. The biggest unknown going forward is what do Derek Falvey and Thad Levine do now?
 
Castro will return in 2019 on the final year of a three-year, $24.5 million deal. He'll be coming off a knee surgery that allowed him to play in just 19 games this season. At 32 years old he'll have spent 699 games behind the dish, and the likelihood that his best days are behind him remains real.
 
Initially billed as a framing wizard behind the dish, Castro ranked just 15th in baseball per Baseball Prospectus' Framing Runs metric for 2017. While not awful, that's hardly what the Twins had hoped given the hype around that being his best asset. Castro's .720 OPS last season was 29th among major league catchers with at least 130 plate appearances. To summarize, there was plenty to be desired on both sides of the game even before the injury.
 
Fast forward to 2018, and the Twins catchers have combined to post a .607 OPS. That number comes in 6th worst in all of baseball. Bobby Wilson, who has been the main starter behind the plate in Castro's absence, owns the 6th worst OPS among 55 catchers with at least 100 plate appearances (.507). Mitch Garver has been a significantly better bat, and Willians Astudillo profiles as such also, but neither have been trusted with the gear on.
The lack of belief behind the plate really points to the crux of the Twins issues.
 
Regardless of what form Castro is in when he returns, Minnesota has virtually no one else they're willing to turn to. Astudillo has posted strong framing numbers at Triple-A, and held his own throwing out 35% of would be base stealers. In seven games with the Twins (and nearly a month on the roster), he never once drew time behind the plate. Garver has been on the 25 man for the balance of the season, yet has been called upon to start at catcher just 45 times.
 
There's plenty of reason to believe that the Twins should compete immediately in 2019. Projecting another year of virtually everything going wrong seems like a poor bet, and the division should remain plenty open with the only other talented team being the Cleveland Indians. Before they get there however, the Minnesota front office needs to figure out a better blueprint at catcher.
 
Down the stretch, Garver should be prioritized over Wilson. Whether or not he's deemed an acceptable catcher shouldn't matter in a lost season. Figuring out to what degree he can be counted upon is a must. Astudillo seems like a career minor leaguer, and probably isn't the answer either. Should the results point towards a different direction than Garver, the Twins will need to get creative over the winter.
 
Castro could be presumed the starter out of the gate again, but a free agent could be brought in to take away those duties. Potential names on the open market include Yasmani Grandal, Wilson Ramos, and Devin Mesoraco. Should the Twins decide not to supplant Castro, another Chris Gimenez type might make sense in place of Garver.
 
Stepping further away from the situation, the reality is there's a ton of moving pieces and very few certainties for Minnesota. Catcher isn't a position rich in value across the big leagues right now, and while the Twins have two intriguing prospects in Ben Rortvedt and Ryan Jeffers, neither are close enough to make a difference any time soon. The role can't continue to be a revolving door for a team with postseason aspirations however, and driving towards a real answer needs to be a goal sooner rather than later.
 
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(Entry photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
 
Fogo de Chão, a Brazilian steakhouse with all-you-can-eat tableside-carved meats, was attributed by Eduardo Escobar before this season as a big reason for his success in 2017, according to an interview by the Star Tribune.
 
Reportedly, Eduardo Escobar is unwilling to be traded to any team whose home ballpark is not located near a Fogo de Chão. Namely, of the teams still in playoff contention this year, this will entirely rule out St. Louis (Cardinals), Cleveland (Indians), and Milwaukee (Brewers). It will likely also rule out the Los Angeles Angels, whose stadium is in Anaheim, 2 hours away from the nearest Fogo de Chão.
 
We reached out to Escobar, and he stated “Hey man, I really like Fogo de Chão. No Fogo de Chão would be no bueno. Big meat equals big hits.”
 
Of all the divisions in baseball, only the NL West has Fogo de Chão locations in every city, meaning likely suitors for Escobar could be the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, or Giants (who have a 90%, 45%, and 12% chance of reaching the playoffs in 2018, respectively, according to Fangraphs as of July 5th).
 
On the year, Escobar, a utility infielder who has mostly played third base this year, is hitting .277 (.867 OPS) with 13 homeruns and 50 RBI. Eduardo Escobar will be a Free Agent at the end of the 2018 season, after earning $4.85M this season with the struggling Minnesota Twins.

During the final game of the last homestand against the Rangers, after the Twins dropped the first three games of the series to the Rangers, many fans noticed a change to the familiar Minnie and Paul celebration sign in center field.
 
As an apparent gesture of the Twins performance this year, likely in particular that of the offense lately, Minnie and Paul had paper bags placed over their heads. Minnie and Paul are well-known for their friendly handshake over the Mississippi River.
 
Minnesota Twins Senior Director of Ballpark Development and Planning Dan Starkey said, “We felt this was the correct gesture to ensure that Twins fans have the right mentality when coming to Target Field to cheer on the Twins this year.” He added, “We are considering making additional changes to the famous Minnie and Paul sign. For example, after Joe Mauer leaves the Twins or retires, we’re considering changing the handshake to some kind of fist bump to appeal to current players and millennial fans.”
 
We asked Starkey if they had any additional plans around Target Field, other than with Minnie and Paul, to commemorate the failing Twins season. “Well if the Twins are truly going to continue being a bad team this year, why not embrace that and find ways to enjoy it? When the Twins are officially eliminated from playoff contention, we are planning on hosting a paper bag giveaway sponsored by Cub Foods so every fan can watch the game from the comfort and security of a paper bag over their head with some eye holes poked into it. We’ll even have mini paper bags for the kids,” Starkey said.

Prior to the news of the Minnesota Twins re-signing veteran reliever Matt Belisle, I had every intention of writing a piece on the curious usage of Matt Magill. Paul Molitor has routinely been lackluster when it comes to bullpen managment during his time as Twins skipper, but things got even more confusing today. After revamping the relief corps going into the season, Thad Levine, Derek Falvey, and Paul Molitor have found a way to make a relative strength into a revolving door.
 
Needing a fresh arm at the tail end of April, the Twins turned to Matt Magill. Prior to that point, Magill last pitched in the big leagues during the 2016 season. He had just 32 innings under his belt, and at 28 years old, he was a relative flier. Now having been on the 25 man roster for 40 games, he's been used just 13 times in that stretch. Without knowing his numbers, it may not seem egregious given the lack of history to build off of. The numbers though, well they're very good. In 20.2 IP with Minnesota, Magill has posted a 1.31 ERA with a 7.4 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9.
 
It wouldn't be a terrible thing to Magill to be largely unused if the Twins found themselves avoiding a need to go to their bullpen. However, in that 40 games timeframe he's been with the club, Ryan Pressly has been ran out to the mound 21 times, while Addison Reed has been called upon on 19 occasions. In the 21 games Pressly has appeared in, he has a 6.11 ERA and is allowing an .886 OPS to opposing hitters. Reed's 19 appearances have equaled out to a 3.38 ERA (compared to a 2.57 mark prior), and an .895 OPS against. To say they are running on fumes is an understatement. It being only June makes matters worse.
 
Then comes the news of Matt Belisle.
 
Not only is Paul Molitor not using his full relief corps currently, but he's now been given a veteran arm that the worst bullpen in the big leagues (Cleveland) decided to give up on even at Triple-A. Belisle filled in admirably as the Twins closer down the stretch last season, but his fastball velocity has declined to a career worst 90.9 mph. He's also ceded runs in three of eight appearances at the highest level this season. Molitor hasn't given Magill the opportunity to spell his horses despite Matt proving worthy of a chance, now he'll have an arm that should be utilized in a similar vein to Tyler Kinley or Phil Hughes before him.
 
Sure, there's a value to clubhouse presence, and that will be a notion disseminated freely when referencing Belisle's signing. That's more a cop out than anything however. Addison Reed, Zach Duke, and Fernando Rodney were intended to be the veteran presence brought in over the offseason. All solid clubhouse guys, they effect Belisle has in the matter should be well represented in the doldrums of Target Field. By spinning an odd fit with the clubhouse tag, Minnesota should and does likely alienate more deserving players toiling away at Triple-A.
 
Tyler Duffey noted frustration when he was recently optioned back to Triple-A. While he's had poor stints with the Twins this year, he was perfect in his recent opportunity and likely deserved better. Most egregious in all of this is none other than Alan Busenitz. Across 24 Triple-A innings thus far, Busenitz owns a 0.38 ERA, 10.5 K/9, and 1.9 BB/9. There's no other way to put it except that it's a massive mistake to have him be wasting bullets in Rochester. No longer a prospect at nearly 28 years old, Busenitz has proven he's well above the Triple-A level, and he should be working his way into a back-end role with the Twins.
 
The signing of Matt Belisle on its own isn't some terrible decision. Given the factors at play however, it's one that Thad Levine, Derek Falvey, and Paul Molitor should all be questioned for. The bullpen is currently mismanaged, internal options likely provide a higher impact, and a negative message is sent throughout the organization. While the front office deserves to be commended for how they handled the offseason, the roster moves since the games began are puzzling at best.
 
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