mk

Cheap vs. disciplined is an interesting way to put it. What's the definition of disciplined? To never overpay for a free agent? To be the highest bidder for a free agent don't you need to overpay/overvalue the player in the eyes of 29 other teams?

Again, I get it. For me it went from what I thought was a clever homage to the Twin Cities aside from the broader Minnesota brand to just being more in your face and dumbed it down.

Yeah I guess. I get it. I just don't like it.

Overall not impressed. I do like the red, white and blue piping on the pants. "M" hats are boring. Hate the Twin Cities jersey. If they wear them on a weekend its a slap to all of Twins Territory outside the metro.

Agree the Twins offense also let them down in 2022. Losing 84 games is a team effort. I hope most of that was due to injury.

After thinking about this for a while and reading all of the interesting perspectives, I'm more convinced than ever that having an Ace is more about luck than anything else. That being said, the teams that have the best luck seem to put themselves in that position. Development seems to be the way most teams have acquired their top pitchers. It's also the least risky. Off the top of my head, the Guardians, Brewers and Marlins come to mind as programs to imitate. I think this is the path the Twins decided to take when they hired the current FO. Overall I think it's still a work in progress and we've seen a lot of good, not great. In 2023, I'm hoping for a little bit of luck to see one (or two) of the good pitchers become great.

You’re right, I could have mentioned Berrios. He was drafted in the supplemental round by the previous front office. Advanced quickly through the minors and settled in as a what I would call a good #2. Eventually earning 2 all-star appearances for the Twins. When the Twins knew they were not going to offer a fair market contract to Berrios the current FO traded him to the Blue Jays where he continued his solidly good production and then a 9th place finish in the 2021 Cy Young voting, Good, but still not what I’d consider an “Ace.” The Twins received what many believed to be a great return at the time in prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson. Maybe SWR develops into the Ace, time will tell. Then came 2022 and early returns would say the FO was right not to give a big contract to Berrios. There is certainly still time to prove his 2022 season is the outlier, but would he be regarded higher than Sonny Gray? I think no. If the Twins had kept and resigned Berrios, they’d still be looking for their “Ace.”

I would think with his yearly arm troubles that Canterino would be a prime candidate to move to the bullpen

I always thought a deGrom comparison was interesting as he had an arm injury early on in his career in the minors. The difference is that he was so far off the prospect map for the Mets that they didn't feel like they had a lot to lose if he got injured again. Duran, on the other hand, was moving up the prospect charts before missing a year of game development due to COVID-19 and then an injury severely limited his 2021 season. Duran was an essential part of the bullpen to start 2022 and by the end he was one of the best relievers in baseball.

No matter if your definition of an “Ace” is one of the top 5-10 pitchers in baseball or you’re talking about a #1 starter on a playoff team, in my opinion the Twins have been searching for a consistent “Ace” ever since Bill Smith traded Johan Santana prior to the 2008 season. How did the Twins get him? Santana was selected in the 1999 Rule 5 draft by the Florida Marlins and traded, with cash, to the Twins for Jared Camp. So, the tried and tested method for the Twins over the last 20 years is… extreme luck. After 20 years, the Twins may be coming due for some luck again. But short of that, in my mind there have been multiple reasons/explanations that have undermined the Twins quest to find another “Ace.” Draft: 2021: Chase Petty: 26th overall selection. Pitched 1 year in the Twins organization, traded to the Reds as part of a trade for Sonny Gray. With only 1 pitcher taken in the first round of the draft by the current front office, it seems clear they don’t view the draft as the best option to obtain an “Ace.” For example, pitchers Hunter Greene, MacKenzie Gore, or Kyle Wright could have been had in 2017 but instead the Twins went for Royce Lewis. If Lewis turns out, fantastic, but it still shows they weren’t comfortable gambling a first-round pick on obtaining an Ace. Development: In terms of development, a pitcher with “Ace” potential in the Twins minor league system has been hard to come by. There have been a few with “Ace” type stuff but the Twins haven’t been able to turn them into a frontline starter. Fernando Romero: Big fastball and a good slider put Fernando on the top of the Twins pitching prospects. Debuted in the majors in 2018 and it was a quick decline from there. Brusdar Graterol: Could be considered an exception as they did flip him for a frontline starter. Traded for Kenta Maeda, more to come on him. Doesn’t look like Brusdar will ever be an Ace, but still an above-average reliever. Jhoan Duran: Has the big fastball and secondary pitches that would give him “Ace” potential. But, arm problems in 2021 and utter dominance in the 2022 major league bullpen convinced the Twins brass he was too big of an asset to risk moving back into the starting rotation. There’s debate about the value of having an “Ace” to play out of the bullpen, but save that for another day. Others: Is there potential for Balazovic, Canterino, Winder, Woods-Richardson, Varland, or others? Maybe, but I don’t think anyone is thinking they will establish themselves as the next Pedro Martinez at this point. Trade Acquisitions: This has been the most successful avenue in the search for an Ace. But I admit these are more #1/#2 starters rather than a true “Ace.” 2018: Jake Odorizzi: Received in trade for Jermaine Palacios. Not an ace, but a very nice acquisition 2020: Kenta Maeda: Received in trade for Brusdar Graterol. Maeda finished 2nd in Cy Young Voting in 2020 and that performance warrants “Ace” discussion. Unfortunately things haven’t gone as well since 2020. Injured in 2021 and rehabbing for all of 2022. With one year left on his current contract, the Twins certainly hope he can get back to the “Ace” form he showed in 2020. 2021: Joe Ryan: Received in a deadline trade for an aging Nelson Cruz. Not an “Ace” but pitching very well. A 1.102 WHIP over his first full season and striking out more than a batter per inning. Doesn’t seem to have the raw stuff of and ace, but never say never and my fingers are crossed. 2022: Sonny Gray, Chris Paddack, and Tyler Mahle. Gray was received after dealing 2021 1st round pick Chase Petty. The Paddack deal involved Taylor Rogers and others. Mahle for trading a few prospects. Gray has been good, Paddack and Mahle have been hurt. Are any of them “Ace” pitchers? I would say no, as just about every Twins fan is still clamoring for the Twins to acquire a true “Ace.” Free Agency: Lance Lynn, Martin Perez, Michael Pineda, Rich Hill, Matt Shoemaker, J.A. Happ, Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer. I can’t bring myself to write anything about these guys except to say they DO NOT fall into the “Ace” category. On the other hand, while Twins fans wanted that clear-cut #1 starter in free agency, what has been available? Below are the free agent pitchers that have received more than $15MM average annual value since 2018. 2018: Yu Darvish: 6 years, $126MM Jake Arrieta: 3 years, $75MM 2019: Patrick Corbin: 6 years, $140MM 2020: Gerrit Cole: 8 years, $324MM Stephen Strasburg: 7 years, $245MM Zack Wheeler: 5 years, $118MM Madison Bumgarner: 5 years, $85MM Hyun-Jin Ryu: 4 years, $80MM Dallas Keuchel: 3 years, $55.5MM 2021: Trevor Bauer: 3 years, $102MM 2022: Kevin Gausman: 5 years $110MM Robbie Ray: 5 years, $115MM Max Scherzer: 3 years, $130MM Eduardo Rodriguez: 5 years, $77MM Carlos Rodon: 2 years, $44MM Justin Verlander: 1 year, $25MM Of these players: How many legitimately considered moving to the Twin Cities? I know at least Wheeler and Bumgarner had geographic requirements that didn’t include the Midwest. How many have a legitimate shot at a 2022 Cy Young Award? I count Verlander. How many would still be considered an “Ace” in 2022? Verlander, Scherzer, Cole. Maybe Darvish, Wheeler, Rodon, and Gausman. How many would have a hard time competing for a spot in the Twins’ 26-man roster for 2023? Arrieta, Corbin, Strasburg, Bumgarner, Ryu, Keuchel, Bauer, and maybe Rodriguez Conclusion: There are numerous ways a team can get an “Ace” on the pitching staff but there’s one thing for certain, getting an “Ace” on your team is hard. The Twins could draft the wrong player. Maybe Royce Lewis will be great, but if the ultimate goal was to have an “Ace” on your team, Kyle Wright is already in the conversation for one of the best pitchers in the league. A prospect can get derailed in development. Jhoan Duran had potential until injury limited his 2021 season. Who knows what might have been? He’s a dominant reliever but could he have stayed healthy and maintained his elite raw stuff for multiple innings to be an “Ace” starting pitcher? We will probably never get the chance to find out. The Twins could trade away a future “Ace.” Maybe that was Chase Petty. Maybe it was Steven Hajjar. Maybe that was Brusdar Graterol. The Twins did trade for Kenta Maeda who performed like an “Ace” in his first season with the Twins. Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan were good in their first seasons with the Twins. Is that close enough? The front office could sign an “Ace” in free agency. Easier said than done. Some are priced so high that only the teams with the very top payrolls have a legitimate chance. Some free agent starting pitchers just didn’t want to spend their summers in Minneapolis. And, many of the top starting pitchers on the market never lived up to their big time contracts. It seems, in the eyes of Derek Falvey/Thad Levine, the success rate of a high-priced starting pitcher just hasn’t been worth the risk of the big contracts. Of course, the ultimate goal of having an elite, “Ace” starting pitcher is to win the World Series – which the Twins were unable to do even with Johan Santana. Maybe as Twins fans we need to look back to the last time the Twins won the World Series. In 1991 Scott Erickson, Jack Morris, and Kevin Tapani finished 2nd, 4th, and 7th in the AL Cy Young Award voting. Scott Erickson was drafted in the 4th round and developed by the Twins. Jack Morris was acquired as a free agent. Kevin Tapani was acquired via trade and developed in the minor leagues by the Twins. If the 2023 Twins could put something like that together, I like their chances.

Taylor Rogers debuted with the Twins in 2016 at age 25 and made an immediate impact on the big league club pitching 61.1 innings to the tune of a 3.96 ERA, 107 ERA+, 1.288 WHIP, and over a strikeout per inning pitched. In total, Rogers compiled 314.2 innings showing an excellent SO/W ratio and an all-star appearance in 2021. With one year left before free agency, the Twins traded Taylor Rogers to the Padres who then traded him to the Brewers. It seemed a big blow to the Twins bullpen at the time of the trade and seemed even more painful after losing Paddack for most of 2022-2023 and the performance of Emilio Pagan. Did San Diego or Milwaukee do any better? Did any team “win” a trade involving Taylor Rogers in 2022? Taylor Rogers, according to Baseball Reference: April 7, 2022: Traded by the Minnesota Twins with Brent Rooker and cash to the San Diego Padres for a player to be named later, Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan. The San Diego Padres sent Brayan Medina (minors) (April 21, 2022) to the Minnesota Twins to complete the trade. August 1, 2022: Traded by the San Diego Padres with Robert Gasser (minors), Dinelson Lamet and Esteury Ruiz to the Milwaukee Brewers for Josh Hader. After the trades: Minnesota Twins: Chris Paddack: 0.2 WAR over 22.1 innings before injury ended his 2022 season and expected to miss most of 2023. Emilio Pagan: -0.5 WAR over a tortuous 63 innings and made a strong case for Cleveland Guardians June MVP. Brayan Medina: 19 years old. 6.46 ERA over 23.2 innings in Florida Complex League, rookie ball. San Diego Padres: Taylor Rogers: 41.1 innings, 1.113 WHIP, 4.35 ERA, 86 ERA+ Brent Rooker: -0.2 MLB WAR, before being traded to Kansas City for Cam Gallagher on August 2 CASH: $6,600,000 Josh Hader: 16 innings, 1.625 WHIP, 7.31 ERA, 52 ERA+ Milwaukee Brewers: Taylor Rogers: 23 innings, 1.304, 5.48 ERA, 73 ERA+ Robert Gasser: 23 years old. 3-3 record, 46.2 innings over AA/AAA in the minors Dinelson Lamet: Selected off waivers by the Colorado Rockies before playing for Milwaukee Esteury Ruiz: 23 years old. -0.2 WAR in 3 games

yes thanks. I tried to delete them but didn't see how. Also, the payroll under budget must not account for the dead money? I had Dobnak at 0.00 because he was in the dead money category.

Polanco: Trade Urshela: Sign and trade Kepler: Trade BUC: Receive in trade FA: Carlos Correa (10 years $330M). Solidifies SS for the next 7-8 years. Maybe moves to 3B on the FA: Aaron Judge (9 years $324M). RH hitting corner outfielder who can cover CF when Buxton is on the IL. Asking a lot of Kirilloff, Jeffers and Larnach to stay healthy. Bench UT is a Spring Training competition between Julien and Martin but should get enough ABs when resting Buxton and moving Arraez/Larnach/Kirilloff/Gordon around. A lot was committed in free agency, but hey, it's not my money. C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) 3B: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.00M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Aaron Judge ($36.00M) DH: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.70M) Utility: Edouard Julien ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Backup C: BUC ($0.70M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.70M) RP: Randy Dobnak ($0.00M) RP: Danny Coulombe ($1.00M) Payroll is 4.07% under budget

Love that the Twins made moves to win this year. Also love they didn't mortgage the future by overspending for SP rentals like Syndergaard or Rodon. SS is in as good of hands this year as ever. The hard truth is that even with production below what everyone dreamed on with Correa, it's better than what can be expected out of anyone else that would have been available so the time to try is now. The fact that Correa is earning big $$$ doesn't matter. If Correa didn't sign with the Twins I'd wager that $35MM "leftover" budget just doesn't get spent. I'm excited to follow the Twins for the rest of this year and with the rest of the division making minimal moves, the AL Central is theirs for the taking. Next year looks good too. Correa would be better than any other option, but even when Correa moves on, having his $35MM come off the books (as well as Sano's $12MM, Sanchez's $9MM, and Urshela's $6.5MM) the budget should allow for significant upgrades (or at least some interesting offseason blueprints).

Adding Rodon would have been great but SF not moving him indicates the asking price was too high - for any team to pay.

Am I way off base for thinking he shouldn't have been playing the outfield?

Was Correa eligible to come off the IL today?

Let's Go! The biggest problem will be moving to the 8-man rotation when Maeda and Dobnak come back later this year (joking) But you're right. For example, J.A. Happ had a 1.91 ERA after 5 starts last year.

I'd like to add that it's pleasant the Yankees are also struggling Josh Donaldson: .217/.288/.261 Isiah Kiner-Falefa: .059/.111/.229

I am hoping Bundy has the best year of his career, as do the rest of the Twins pitchers, and it's really difficult to decide who gets to start game 1 of the playoffs because they've all been so dominant.

The Twins lost plenty of playoff games with Joe Nathan at the backend of the rotation as well. Admittedly, I'm biased as I think a "proven closer" is vastly overrated.

I don't think relievers win playoff games.

If this helps the Twins can use less than 16 starting pitchers this year, this will be a success. I'd rather run Paddack out there than the likes of Beau Burrows, Luke Farrell, John Gant, et al. I hope the options they continue to bring in makes it so the Twins don't need to stick with a Bundy/Archer if they are ineffective for too long as they did with Shoemaker and Happ.

Getting Correa is very exciting and is a HUGE upgrade at SS but I wouldn't be dusting off the spot for the division title just yet. Looking just at the position players (because there's even more to think about regarding pitching), compared to the last-place 2021 Twins the opening day roster is downgraded at C, 3B, and DH. And the 1B and RF spots have a lot to prove if they want to be a playoff team again. They've all done it before and I'm optimistic. Hoping Urshela's 2021 performance was the outlier and his true self is the 2019/2020 version. Also, if Jeffers, Kepler, and Sano can be much better than their 2021 numbers, Kirilloff takes the next step to becoming a star, and Buxton stays on the field, the division (and maybe more) is definitely attainable.

A+ from me. I was a bit apprehensive about the no trade clause at first but if the Twins are bad what are the chances he vetoes a trade? Correa ends up with a bit of bargaining power and maybe the Twins don't reap quite as big of a return, but hey, they didn't trade anything away to get him so it only cost them $$$ to get a free prospect return. I hope the Twins are in the thick of the playoff chase so it's a moot point regardless.