DFlow

Trading Gurriel will come at the cost of trading Kepler (unless Falvine decides that are not pursuing any bullpen help for some reason). Since the deals will be pretty similar, I feel like the Twins maintain more flexibility with just keeping Kepler. If they do trade Kepler, I'd prefer two medium leverage or better receivers anyways over Gurriel.

I think this would be a mistake to do so this year. Balazovic does not have the injury history that Winder and Duran had as starters. He's averaging close to 100 innings per year right now, and never really was right coming out of spring training. Let's go through a full offseason program and have a goal for 130 innings this year. If he flops, then move him to the bullpen. If not, you may have your #5 starter next year. With Maeda, Gray, and Mahle set to depart, we will likely see some combination of Ober, Winder, SWR, and Varland holding down at least two spots.

With no salary cap in baseball, this is the pathway for the Twins to win a championship. It's not fun or sometimes fair, but taking these gambles on elite players in free agency finally gives us the chance for young cores to have better roster balance. Next step is actually investing in pitching.

The brutal truth behind Sano is that he has two month spells at time where he is completely useless and it happens every year (sometimes twice!). Everyone understands the ups and downs of baseball seasons, but for someone with no positional value, it's imperative that your bat carries you. Sano's just does not and holds up a roster spot. I'd rather gamble on Kiriloff's wrist.

MLB: Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, A-Rod, Kevin Brown all come to mind. Plenty of other cases in NFL, NHL, and NBA that have worked too. It's pretty clear that plenty of locker room problems have won rings or made it to the big game. If you make a problem the leader, then its an issue. Donaldson signed a fat deal and flopped as a leader. If others in the locker room take the reins than it can work (all of the MLB guys above have rings). If it doesn't work you just DFA him obviously which would effectively end his career. Again- this should have been hashed out in FA with a quality frontline pitcher. Now that we are here, it's better than Dylan Bundy/Chris Archer.

Great clubhouses matter when you have the personnel to make it matter. For the past 17 years, the Twins have not invested in frontline playoff pitching. We have had wonderful clubhouses and people who were on those teams to absolutely zero success. Even with Correa, this would only be a playoff team due to a garbage division. The Correa parade blew the Twins chance to land impact starting pitching on the FA market, and it's unlikely the Twins can acquire the type of starter they need in a trade (again Pablo Lopez is not an upgrade). Further- whoever takes Bauer moving forward can be his last chance moving forward with one slip up. He's not going to blow that if given the chance. I hate that its come to making a decision like this for the 17th straight offseason, but it's better than wasting 10 million on Dylan Bundy/Chris Archer.

Would like to point out that "clubhouse vibes" are extremely overblown. The Twins and Wild have had great locker rooms over the past few years to achieve........nothing. The reality is that with Correa, the Twins are still the 15th best overall fWAR team all included. Unsurprisingly, it's ugly when isolating just the pitching staff. They don't have immediate prospects or remaining free agents who could improve those number substantially. Barring an unforeseen major trade unloading prospect capital, we need to make some decisions as we have given up a lot of prospect capital as it stands for 2023 (see Gray and Mahle trades). I'm not a big fan of Bauer, but the Dodgers are paying his salary this year already. For 2-3 million from our end, you get substantial value that could meaningfully benefit your roster without sacrificing the prospect pipeline. I personally wish we could have closed Rodon and not be in this position at all, but we wont win in October with this rotation as it stands. There is also not an arbitration level pitcher who would be better than Bauer (no Pablo Lopez is not better).

With this ridiculous payroll flexibility and no big name free agents to spend it on (thanks to Falvine), let’s shore up the bullpen. Chafin and Fulmer would cost around 13 mil and would give us six or so strong options out of the bullpen. This would also allow guys like Winder or Alcala to surprise you in the two remaining spots which would clear up a lot of uncertainty out there. I doubt Kenta starts the year in the rotation. I think he starts in long relief and takes over his rotation spot in May/June as a way to build him back up. I could see the Twins go after someone like Wacha on a one year deal (which will go as well as the other one year pitching deals we have done). Finally- I think Falvine will seek out some additional power in the lineup. I wouldn’t be surprised with a JD Martinez deal for one year with a club option to shore up the middle of the lineup. With Correa gone, someone has to fill that power vacuum in the middle of the lineup.

If Falvine came into the offseason with no Plan B in the event that Correa signed elsewhere (which now seems apparent), then we have to pivot fast. Per usual, the Twins misread the market and the last marquee free agent (Rodon) is unlikely to come to MN. We can: A) Pickup two good bullpen arms (Fulmer/Chafin for 13 mil), sign a middling free agent pitcher to a one year deal (we know how this goes), and sign JD for a one year deal (12 mil plus club option). We raise the floor of the team and if we make the playoffs we get swept out of the playoffs. This is the likely scenario (60% chance of happening). B) Have some balls and sign Rodon + two decent bullpen arms (same as above). This is the only remaining move that elevates the teams ceiling this year from a FA perspective. We can finally match up pitching wise in October. 5% chance of happening. C) Flip the guys in the last year of their deal unless they agree to Falvey friendly deals. Start another soft rebuild. 35% chance of happening.

If it were up to me, I would: -Go head first for Rodon 5/140 (Saves about 7 mil from Correa fall off) - Extend Gray for 2/28 mil: He's a solid #2 and I think he would appreciate stability as he goes further into his 30's and doesnt change the cap too much from his current hit long term. - Extend Mahle 4/64 mil: This is a gamble but we have to gamble on the upside which is a very good #2 pitcher - Put Kenta in long relief or stacked starter role until June -Trade Kepler (won't return much) and retain Gio At this point, the Twins have the team on paper to seek an ace who can change there fortunes. They will have to outbid everyone though. This would frame the Twins up with a Top 7 Rotation in MLB with depth: Playoffs: 1) Rodon- rock-solid ace who can pitch against Verlander, Cole, etc. 2) Gray- rock-solid #2 pitcher who could go head-to-head with Nestor Cortes or Framber Valdez 3) Mahle - A #2 pitcher who would be pitching out of the 3 slot. Would beat most teams #3's. 4) Ryan- A solid #4 pitcher who would be in his correct role. Hopeful for continued offspeed pitch growth 5) Ober/Maeda - Wildcards who provide good upside and depth. That is a rotation that can win in October and would give us close to our current cap hit for the next few years. Offense would be: C- Jeffers- Slightly below average catcher overall 1B- Arraez- Above Average 1B 2B- Polanco- Above Average 2B SS- Gordon until Royce is ready- Below Average overall 3B- Gio - Average DH- Miranda - Above Average with opportunity to shine (will take over 3B full time in 2024) LF- Larnach - Average CF: Buxton-Elite when he plays RF: Kiriloff or FA who can provide some power I would be surprised if this didn't amount to a Top 12 offense. Top 7 Pitching Staff + Top 12 offense = opportunity for a playoff run. Bullpen CL: Duran SU: Jax SU: Lopez High Leverage: Theilbar Medium Leverage: Fulmer (retain for 2/8 million) but would be happier with a better addition. Long Relief: Maeda Low Leverage: Moran (it's time to give him a shot) Last spot: Josh Winder - I think he could be a multi-inning threat out of the pen and he doesn't stay healthy while starting. This group would probably be middle of the way, which would be huge for the Twins.

Rocco has been at the mercy of the team of the team given to him. There is some running and semantics you can claim but that's only going to manufacture a win or two over the course of the year. Falvine needs to get serious about pitching if we want to win playoff series. A major factor you see on good teams is that they are able to develop there own #3-5 starters meaning they can use payroll to acquire more higher end pitching. We currently have Mahle, Ryan, and a quality #5 starter who will all be pre-FA next year which is finally an exciting output. Here is what we have next year for the roation: #1 - Open, we have no ace #2- Sonny Gray - a completely fine #2 pitcher #3- Tyler Mahle - when healthy, probably a #2 pitcher that will be pitching on the third game of a playoff series #4- Joe Ryan - if Joe Ryan is your #4 starter, your rotation is looking healthy. A guy you can project to be a playoff starter during a 7 game series #5- Bailey Ober/Josh Winder/ Louie Varland/Kenta - Ober has the most upside and would be a well above average #5 starter. Good chance Kenta is slowly built up in the bullpen (long guy) and flexed later in the year to start if needed. I typed this out as we need to talk about actual playoff strategy from the rotation. If every guy on this current rotation is asked to be pushed up a playoff game slot (which has happened to Twins teams for the past 12 years), they are likely worse or equal to the opposing pitcher. Focusing on someone like Rodon in FA (with the Correa money) will make a playoff series pitching matchups swing in our favor. #1-Rodon- equal or better than the majority of aces #2- Gray is probably equal to the other #2 pitchers #3- Mahle should beat most #3 pitchers #4- Ryan should beat or at least be equal to other #4 pitchers Much of the offensive side of the ball will be figured out in my opinion. It really will come down to the FA strategy on the pitching side that will determine if this team will ever do something in October. It's all about matchups, and we can't ask guys who has a nice year or who are Randy Dobnak to go against guys like Gerrit Cole in a playoff series. We have great upcoming depth in pitching on the backend, which should open up funds for front line guys.

I think the Twins should play this all the way to the deadline. This team is an enigma with great offense (that sometimes doesn’t show up), two frontline starters (but the rest are sketch), and a weak bullpen (that at times has over performed). Right now- they are probably the ninth or tenth best team in the league, and we need more information on where this team will go before we push the chips in. That being said, if we can open up long term extension talks with Correa, I would be all for it. 8/280 I would think would get the deal done and he’s young enough where we will get plenty of prime years.

Getting rid of the juiced ball of 2019 was a terrible idea. The two basic "renaissance" seasons for baseball in the past 25 years were 1998 (Home run race) and 2019 (juiced ball season) where fans across baseball were actively engaged. For a sport that is becoming increasingly unpopular, it's unimaginable that you can't see that more home runs means more money for MLB.

I just don't see them being active in the pitching trade market unless a no-brainer hits them in the face like in the Odorizzi deal. We have an over abundance of 2B/3B's right now, but I dont think anyone is trying to bail on any of them right now so who could really give us back anything meaningful? I'm very curious if we could see stacked starters next year with some of the young guys. The minor leaguers I think will be plagued for a second year with lack of workload, but could see valuable experience in there rookie seasons potentially being stacked in the same game with another guy. 1) FA/Trade Acquisition (I would not be shocked if they did a one year deal with Pineda since next year is probably a washg anyways). 2)Bailey Ober 3)Joe Ryan 4)Dobnak 5)Jax (5 innings)/Barnes (4 innings) for all nine innings OR Jax/Winder for all nine innings I think the stacked starts could be really beneficial for young guys to get controlled innings each game, while also giving the bullpen some relief. It's also pro analytics considering it would limit young pitchers from going three times through the order. Balazovic could be ready by the middle of next year as well, which could shake some things up.

I think it's hard to speculate on Polanco's raw leadership skills since so much of the spotlight has been drawn on Cruz for the past few years. That being said, he has a chance to shine being the offensive leader of the team right now. Also, the critics who wanted to trade him this trade deadline are out of there minds. Polanco may be on one of the most team friendly deals in all of baseball over the next few seasons. At this point, there's little reason to suggest he cannot maintain a 3-4 WAR average per year. For the people worried about Arraez, I think you'll see Donaldson either moved to another team or to DH. Arraez will probably be your long term 3B.

It sounds as though there was no market for Simmons at the deadline, which does not come as a surprise with a .560 OPS. My thoughts on Pineda is that Falvine stuck to there high return guns similar to how they handled Cruz and Berrios. This totally worked in those cases where the Twins received premium returns. My guess is the Twins were asking for a 6-12 prospect and no one wanted to keep giving the Twins an overpayment for Pineda. My initial reaction was similar to yours in that this could be a miss. In reflection though, the overall strategy Falvine had at the deadline was excellent, so I don't blame them for keeping it consistent.

I think these points are not anything to be too worried about at this point. Contact: I don't think it's overly surprising for Martin's strikeout rate to increase being thrust straight into AA. He's more than held his own at AA as a 22 year old and think his offensive profile as an OBP machine has not changed. Let's get more of a minor league sample size without the injury before we worry too much here. Impacting the Baseball: This to me will be something to keep an eye on, but I think it's still too limited of a sample size (including the hand injury), to overly speculate with. If he can get to Starling Marte level power then he will be a very helpful player. His college exit velos were excellent, and there's no reason one year away should change that perception too much. Keith Law mentioned that his swing with the injury has caused more of an inside out swing, which naturally would create less power. Let's see where things go once the hand injury heals in the offseason. Defense: I think we have a tendency to over analyze defense on these forums to the point where we begin playing a player who can't hit just for the sake of SS defense. I think Martin has a lot of utility (like Arraez) to have defensive flexibility at CF/2B/3B/LF. He does not profile well as a corner outfielder, but would still be a great addition for days where Kepler/Larnach need a day off. Polanco and Arraez will probably be in the ballpark of 3+ WAR players for the forseeable future, but leveraging where they play with Martin could create an incredible top of the lineup. Even if we re-sign Buxton, we know he will miss time so this is a nice player to have who can be a 2-3 WAR swiss army knife who may be a slightly better version of Arraez. In my opinion, Martin (like Arraez) fits a huge need for the future offense in having table setters for our power hitters. The 2020 and 2021 Twins have had issues with having to out-homer there competition, which to me is not good baseball. I think Arraez, Polanco, and Martin will be excellent future compliments to the way Falvine wants to build out the middle of the order, and I don't think these shortcomings listed by scouts are anything to be too worried about at this stage.