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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    Right, so there is only one spot despite the way you tried to portray the situation just a few posts back. But even more than that....do you really believe that if they are better pitchers through March, April, or even May....that the Twins will just go to them? Mind you, we've seen lopsided evidence to the contrary on this. I want to believe it, but damned if I can.
  2. TheLeviathan
    I'm fine with all that. I'm even ok with the first year approach of clearing the deck for Hicks to start. My question is, why do we do that for hitters and the exact opposite for pitchers?
  3. TheLeviathan
    I'd like to feel that they actually have an equal shot as Milone, Pelfrey, and maybe even Nolasco. Do you honestly feel like they will?
  4. TheLeviathan
    I would suggest they cleared the path intentionally for Hicks. They did the same for Mauer, Morneau, and many others going quite a ways back. The Twins' methods with hitting prospects vs. pitching prospects is almost Dr. Jekyl/Mr. Hyde. It's clearly some kind of organizational philosophy, but what it is and why they do it I'm not sure.
  5. TheLeviathan
    It's interesting to see the Twins' tendencies in comparison to other teams. It might just have been that five year sample of talent, but it does reinforce the perception that most fans have. Thanks for the link!
  6. TheLeviathan
    I'm ok with that, you won't hear me calling for anyone's head based on prospect timelines. I might grumble about wanting to see one guy over another (see: Gibson vs. PJ freaking Walters) but I understand how readiness involves a lot of factors beyond us as fans. I also put a lot of value on guys getting exposure to the next level and tempering expectations about that. All that said, this team is very willing to clear out the roster (to a fault) for Aaron Hicks but Alex Meyer and Trevor May have spin straw into gold before they get shots at a rotation spot? I'm more baffled by the approach than anything. That's why I use the QB "battle" as an example. Everyone knows the backup could go 28-30 with 4 TDs and he's still riding the pine and I get that feeling a lot with young Twins' starters.
  7. TheLeviathan
    Are there really five spots or are four already sewn up short of injury? There is one spot. And again, this isn't about needing depth or injuries coming up or anything like that. It's the belief that these guys will truly be on the team when they are most deserving. I am hopeful that the team is willing to make that bold stride but too often under Ryan it is not the most talented players, but the veterans or those with the most invested in them financially. The notion that Alex Meyer or Trevor May have one of five spots open to them is just ridiculous. They have one spot open to them and they are competing with each other, Tommy Milone, and Mike Pelfrey at the very least.
  8. TheLeviathan
    This is exactly the point I was opposed to and it was clearly imbedded in your previous point as well. His performance as a rookie shouldn't be held against his "readiness" - rookies struggle, even ones that go on to be brilliant players. It's a poor gauge for whether or not they should be up or not. (That goes for the reverse too - a hot start doesn't make them any more ready either as evidenced by Arcia and many, many others)
  9. TheLeviathan
    I really cannot understand this belief that rookies should only come up if they won't struggle. Not only does it not make sense on a number of levels and completely contradict volumes of evidence to the contrary, but this very team consistently calls up hitting prospects far less "ready" all the time. Young players struggle to adjust at every level of advancement but you still have to advance them to know what you have.
  10. TheLeviathan
    I expect Vargas to be this player long-term, certainly. I also expect him to have happen to him what Arcia had in 2014. Guys like Vargas tend to go through a tough adjustment in their second year and I expect that from Vargas this year.
  11. TheLeviathan
    If it's Mike Pelfrey that might be in name only. I just have a hard time sitting here and hearing people say "they'll get their shot!" when it seems like we're talking the clear runner up in the QB "battle". But hey - I thoroughly hope Molly and the new staff prove me wrong.
  12. TheLeviathan
    BABIP alone seems to be a poor way to make such judgements. I'd contend the better case for Escobar and Santana is that multiple years of minor league play indicate last year was an anomaly. I hope I'm wrong because Santana is a fun player to watch and a favorite of mine already, but the vast majority of the time a guy wildly outperforms his track record it isn't something to bet on.
  13. TheLeviathan
    If we want to talk about Gibson, then 2014 isn't the example that would illustrate my point. That would be 2013 when he was passed over in favor of the likes of Pedro Hernandez, Cole Devries, and the immortal PJ Walters.
  14. TheLeviathan
    No, it's not and I didn't mean to imply that it was. I understand how people could disagree within reason on that. What I don't get is why people are harping on posters who think this team is still a non-contender. The Twins have all but acknowledged as much themselves and there are a host of valid reasons to agree with them.
  15. TheLeviathan
    I want to quibble a bit with this. All of us who are Twins fans should hesitate to embrace this just because the organization has shown a strong tendency to not view these as true options. There are default settings that prevent guys like May and Meyer from getting an equal shot at a spot. It reminds me of an NFL coach telling the press there is a "Position Battle" at QB when everyone with a functioning brain stem knows who the starter is. The Twins have to prove to me that they will truly opt for the young kid pitching his butt off over the higher paid veteran before I'll believe it. I want to hope that a new manager will maybe be a change in this regard, but far too often there has been deference to veterans over young players. The only time this team has ever given jobs to young players is when they clear the path for them ala Hicks. So yes, having depth is nice - I just hope the Twins entertain the idea that the depth in AAA is Pelfrey and Milone and not Alex Meyer. (Should he truly earn it and be ready)
  16. TheLeviathan
    The list of regression vs. progression isn't favorable: Regression Worse: Suzuki (significant), Santana (Possibly crazy amount here), Vargas, Escobar Regression Better: Arcia, Mauer I think we're a bottom half offense next year, with a mediocre bullpen, and an improved rotation. That, however, is not the ingredients to contend. And even if Buxton and Sano come up we should temper how quickly we declare them the missing ingredients of a top ten offense. Rookies struggle the majority of the time and to expect differently is a bit naive. That isn't to write off the possibility, but it seems kind of silly to always talk of forecasting in the most pollyanna sort of way.
  17. TheLeviathan
    If people think this top 5 offense is sustainable then I have a bridge to talk with you about.
  18. TheLeviathan
    I don't think it would be impossible, I just don't believe the total sum of talent on the team is enough yet. It's getting closer though.
  19. TheLeviathan
    Um, how about Kansas City and Yordano Ventura just last year? (Who, by the way, had similar AAA numbers to Alex Meyer) Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha perhaps? At some point you need to allow your rookies to play and, you know, not be rookies any more. I'm not saying that I necessarily think Santana was a bad signing because he blocks anyone, but the notion that this team shouldn't rely on young players right now flies in the face of the kind of rebuild that is being done. If you know you aren't contending, that's PRECISELY when you should season young talent. When, if ever, do these guys come up if you have to know with 100% certainty they are going to be good to great? That seems like an impossible bar to reach in AAA given how subjective the idea of "readiness" is and how frequently the target gets moved.
  20. TheLeviathan
    On the flip side, you have to give players a chance to show you one way or the other. Competent players making the league minimum are extremely valuable to a club. I'm not worried about Santana blocking someone necessarily, but it puts more of an onus on last year when there was opportunity but the team declined (for whatever reason) to use it.
  21. TheLeviathan
    I agree, but I would suggest teams that add assets through all means have that reflect in their payroll eventually. Usually sooner rather than later.
  22. TheLeviathan
    Again, how is that any different or worse than any single other way of projecting? The very nature of predicting the future is devoid of real analysis all the time.
  23. TheLeviathan
    Woofta. First, they're not posting to the decimal point to show off or pat themselves on the back, it's just how they crank out their numbers. Second, neither Steamer nor the poster here has pronounced themselves Vegas-proof and the new Nostradamus. They don't have to be 100% accurate, but they are right often enough that consulting their projections is at the least a sometimes sobering and sometimes encouraging ballpark to work from. I mean, I don't ignore you because you get things wrong sometimes and aren't 100% accurate, I'm not sure why I would ignore a mathematical projection system either. I'm also not betting my mortgage on what you project Phil Hughes to be, but nor am I doing so by Steamer. And nor, as far as I can tell, is anybody else. The problem comes from these silly overreactions to them both pro and con.
  24. TheLeviathan
    You just set a Twins Daily double negative record and I think you lost your own point in it. You can do nothing and hope to get better but it's far less likely than actually trying to add assets to get better.
  25. TheLeviathan
    I remember some lengthy whining about this same thing in regards to Joe Mauer last year and the starting pitchers and how did that turn out?
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