Strombomb

Projected Starter: Jorge Polanco
Likely Backup: Donovan Solano
Depth: Kyle Farmer, Nick Gordon, Willi Castro
Prospects: Edouard Julien, Jose Salas, Austin Martin, Tanner Schobel
THE GOOD
In the 2021 season, his first spent playing second base, Polanco ranked fifth among MLB players at the position with 4.2 fWAR, instantly establishing himself as an elite player at his new infield home. 
He launched 33 homers, drove in 98 runs, and was an easy choice for Twins Daily MVP. Polanco provided middle-of-the-order production from a middle-of-the-infield spot, which is a recipe for huge value. The Twins will hope to get him back there in the season ahead.
Polanco's absence in September last year was jarring: he's one of the few Twins players who has been able to avoid the injured list in his career, ranking second only to Max Kepler in plate appearances for the franchise since 2017. 
If Rocco Baldelli can reliably write Polanco's name into the lineup on a regular basis, he'll feel confident in what they're getting from second base. Polo's been a good if not great hitter almost every year, including 2022 when he was 17% above average, and he's still not yet 30. His switch-hitting ability makes him an everyday staple.
The loss of Luis Arraez during the offseason subtracted a key depth piece at second, but the Twins backfilled with a couple of veterans in Farmer and Solano, who would both be capable if uninspiring regulars at the position should Polanco miss time. 
Adding to their depth here, the Twins have a handful of near-ready infield prospects who could factor at second base in the short term – most notably Julien, who's seen plenty of time there this spring while really impressing with the bat. Martin and Royce Lewis are also realistic candidates to see time at second this year.
THE BAD
Polanco's lengthy run of durability came to halt in the latter part of the 2022 season. He didn't play after August 27th, plagued by a nagging knee tendinitis issue he couldn't shake. According to Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press, Polanco spent much of his offseason rehabbing the injury. 
He's been noticeably slow to ramp up in camp. The 29-year-old still hasn't appeared in a spring game, and while that's not quite yet a red flag, it will be a week or two from now. As with so many other players on this Twins team, it is the ambiguity and lack of information around Polanco's health situation that makes it so inscrutable.
What was true at first base is also true here: the Twins have enough credible depth to sustain losing their starter, but such a scenario would also entail a huge drop-off in upside. The idea of Alex Kirilloff and Polanco holding down the right side of the infield is exhilarating. Alas, we've yet to see either of them on the field this spring.
THE BOTTOM LINE
A healthy Polanco is an excellent piece to have at second base. He has played at an All-Star caliber level in two of the past three full MLB seasons and could easily be one of the team's most critical fixtures this year.
But the lower-body injuries have clearly taken their toll on Polanco, who's undergone multiple ankle surgeries in the past. He's in his last guaranteed year under contract, and as mentioned, there are several young middle infielders in this system on the rise, so the coming season could be a pivotal one for the longest-tenured Twin's future with the franchise. 
Catch Up On Our Position Preview Series:
Position Analysis: Catcher Position Analysis: First Base

In recent weeks, there has been a lot of analysis of team and player projections here at Twins Daily. Not all of these models are perfect, but it gives fans a sense of reasonable expectations for each player and the team. Some players exceed their expected performance every year, and others struggle to meet expectations. Here are the weakest positions on the Twins roster and how they may impact the club in 2023. 
3. Right Field- Projected WAR: 2.7
Max Kepler's name was in the rumor mill for most of the winter, but the Twins seemingly didn't get an offer they liked, so he's set to be an everyday player. There's no question that Kepler is one of baseball's best defensive right-fielders. Last season, Kepler hit .227/.318/.348 (.666) with 18 doubles and nine home runs. Minnesota has other options in right field if the Twins need to use Kepler in more of a platoon role, including Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. It's an important season for Kepler because the Twins have a $10 million team option for 2024. He'd need to outperform his projections for the team not to buy out his contract for $1 million.  
Reason for Optimism: There is some optimism that Kepler will benefit from the limits on defensive shifts. He has already picked up a few hits this spring that might have been outs if defenders were allowed to have more exaggerated shifts. This spring, he has already discussed how he won't need to overthink in the batter's box with three infielders on one side of second base. Reports also have him in a good mindset after spending the offseason overseas to mentally reset himself while recovering from a toe fracture. 
2. Left Field- Projected WAR: 2.1
Left field ranks close to the top for the Twins in early season projections because Joey Gallo is coming off his worst professional season. In 126 games, he posted a 79 OPS+ with 163 strikeouts. If Gallo can't improve, the Twins have depth in left field with players like Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. Out of that trio, only Gordon projects to make the Opening Day roster. Larnach and Wallner will head to Triple-A and need to hit their way back to the big leagues. Other top prospects like Royce Lewis and Austin Martin are options to take over a corner outfield spot later in the season. 
Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Gallo has a bounce-back season and can be closer to the All-Star level player he was in the past. FanGraphs projects his OPS to increase by 93 points, which would still be lower than his career mark (.794 OPS). Left field is the easiest position for the Twins players to exceed their expected performance, and it is the position I am least worried about on this list. 
1. First Base- Projected WAR: 1.9
FanGraphs recently ranked the weakest positions on every contending team, and first base came out as the low spot on the Twins. Alex Kirilloff is a question mark at first base since he has averaged just over 50 games in the last two seasons. Projection systems won't help Kirilloff because he has tried to play through his wrist injury, and his on-field performance has suffered. The Twins won't rely solely on Kirilloff at first base. Kyle Farmer, Joey Gallo, Jose Miranda, and Donovan Solano can all play first base if Kirilloff is forced to miss time again in 2023. 
Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Kirilloff's surgery to shorten his ulnar bone will put him back on track to where he was as a top prospect. Fans have seen flashes of him being an elite hitter, but his wrist injury saps power from his swing. If this most recent wrist surgery is a long-term solution to his wrist woes, he can be one of the club's best overall hitters. 

Luckily, all the Twins' weakest positions are in corner spots which can be easier to address during the season. As the trade deadline approaches, first basemen and corner outfielders are usually easier to acquire and have lower acquisition costs. The Twins also have multiple top prospects close to the big leagues that can step into an everyday role if the club feels like they are ready. 

Do you agree with these rankings? Is there a reason for optimism at each of the positions? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
 

As I looked at numbers for Jose Miranda's stellar rookie campaign, something about it seemed quixotically familiar. This gap-to-gap line-drive hitter with a below-average walk rate and a below-average league strikeout rate reminded me of a season another young third baseman had several years ago, 2013 Manny Machado.
This may initially seem bewildering, but give me a chance to explain, because while similarities exist, it’s the (somewhat hidden) differences that highlight the contrast between the two players. But they also point out why Twins fans can be so optimistic about Miranda.
Miranda was never the prospect that Machado was, but they did end up having similar hit and power grades. On Fangraphs in 2012, Machado was given a 60-hit 50-power, and Miranda had a 50-hit 50-power. The difference in the overall ranking had much to do with other tools Machado possesses that Miranda does not. We will get to that later.
For now, I want to focus on the similarities between 2022 Jose Miranda and 2013 Manny Machado. While not identical, Machado and Miranda were aggressive, quality bat-to-ball hitters in their first full seasons. Machado posted a 4.1% BB rate and 15.9% K rate, and Miranda had a 5.8% BB rate and an 18.8% K rate. Their BB/K was 0.26 for Machado and 0.31 for Miranda, so while the rates were slightly different, the ratios were very close. 
The approach of Machado and Miranda wasn't the only similarity. Their line drive rates and power numbers are what stuck out to me. Let's take a look at some categories where Miranda and Machado performed similarly:
2022 Miranda vs. 2013 Machado 
HR: 15 vs 14
OBP: .325 vs .314
SLG: .426 vs .432
OPS: .751 vs .746
ISO: .158 vs .148
wOBA: .329 vs .325
LD%: 20.3% vs 20.6%
Fastball RAA: 2.5 vs 2.3
Machado logged over 700 plate appearances in 2013, while Jose Miranda had fewer than 500, so volume totals will look significantly different. Still, this was a fun thing to research, given what Machado has developed into as a hitter. 
The differences in the seasons are relatively obvious, but we should look at them anyway. First, Machado played his 2013 season at age 20, whereas Miranda played in 2022 at age 24. That doesn’t mean anything in the value of that year, but it means a tremendous difference in what that year means to their future projections. So to be clear, the fact that their years were similar offensively, doesn’t mean that the players should develop in a similar manner. Jose Miranda is not on pace to become Manny Machado.
There is another glaring disparity between these seasons that does affect the value of that particular season: their defense. Miranda's defensive struggles at first base have been well documented, and it seems to be deemed a success if he turns into an average third baseman. 
On the contrary, Machado is one of the best defensive third basemen in the history of baseball. In that 2013 season, Machado netted 27 defensive runs saved, tops among all third baseman and fifth among all positions. His 20.8 UZR ranked first among all third basemen and first among all positions. 
Machado also finished first among all non-catchers in defensive runs above average at 23.2, a defensive stat that takes into account position value, which is a particularly impressive accomplishment given third base is not considered a premium defensive position. For some context, Miranda had -9.3 defensive runs above average last season. He was penalized for being a below-average defender and additionally penalized for playing most of his innings at first base. 
The differences in defensive value, along with the volume disparity, were enough to give Machado a 5.0 fWAR season compared to Miranda's 1.1 fWAR. Still, it should also be noted that Miranda's offensive production came in a much unfriendlier run-scoring environment. Not only was Camden Yards one of the most hitter-friendly parks in MLB, but changes to the baseball and the progression of pitchers also played a part. 
The difference in these factors is shown in wRC+ and OPS+, which consider the hitter's environment. For both of these stats, the league average is 100. Miranda's and Machado's OPS were nearly identical, but Miranda performed much better in wRC+ at 117 than 2013 Machado at 102. OPS+, which compares a player's OPS to the league average, shows the same with Miranda at 116 and 2013 Machado at 102. 
Jose Miranda most likely doesn't have the talent to become the player Manny Machado has developed into. Still, there are enough parallels in their early career hitting performances that there might be more upside in Miranda's bat than initially perceived. I don't want to imply that Miranda will match Machado as one of the premier players in the game; even in Miranda's highest standard deviation of outcomes, he doesn't become the player Machado is. But as someone who began writing this piece a little lower on Miranda than public perception, I am more optimistic about the Twins' starting third baseman for the years to come.

It encourages us to give into our inherent bias and forget the things that really matter. There isn’t a lot of drama in “this guy is on the 40-man roster” and “this guy doesn’t have options.” But those are the things that matter, not giving up a grand slam on March third. (We’ll get back to that.)
So your best bet for deciphering a roster battle is to start with your assumptions before spring training started, when you were soberly and objectively evaluating the probable 26-man roster. And when I did that (call it version 0.0), here’s what it looked like.
(Green means pretty much locked in. Yellow means I think I know? Red means I don’t know.)
C Vazquez   SP Gray 1B Kirilloff   SP P Lopez 2B Polanco   SP Mahle 3B Miranda   SP Maeda SS Correa   SP Ryan LF Gallo       CF Buxton   CL Duran RF Kepler   RP J Lopez DH Larnach   RP Jax       RP Thielbar Bench C Jeffers   RP Pagan Bench OF Taylor   RP Alcala Bench IF Farmer   RP Moran Bench  Gordon   RP Megill Let’s walk through the changes that are and are not happening, in order of greatest impact.
Donovan Solano is knocking out one of the position players.
When the Twins signed Donovan Solano a major league contract two weeks ago, it likely meant one of the position players who has options was doomed. There aren’t that many: Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Ryan Jeffers. Jeffers is a catcher, so he’s safe. We haven’t seen Kirilloff in a game yet, but he’s supposedly on track to return early.
Trevor Larnach was scratched from the lineup with a lower body injury last week but is supposed to play left field on Tuesday. But if everyone is healthy he would probably be the odd man out. So we’ll leave him off the roster, and put Kirilloff in yellow to reflect the dual challenges of getting healthy and beating out both Larnach for the last spot.
Long relief appears to be a priority.
It’s one thing for Twins manager Rocco Baldelli to say he wants to have a long reliever available for most games this season. It’s another to see the organization align to make that wish a reality. We’re seeing the latter.
Both Baldelli and Derek Falvey have discussed a group of pitcher that could be available in long relief. This is different than designating a long reliever, like the Twins tried to do with Randy Dobnak two years ago. This means having a pool of arms available so if the long reliever  throws 50-70 pitches – or maybe even 30-50 - they can be swapped out with a different option from St Paul for the next game.
This gets around a couple of challenges to the strategy. It allows a long reliever to pitch in back-to-back games if necessary. And it limits the impact of last year’s new MLB rule limiting each pitcher to just five back-and-forths to the minors. With more arms you have more options.
And the Twins have more arms. Cole Sands and Brent Headrick probably have the inside track because they are on the 40-man roster. Old friends Randy Dobnak and Aaron Sanchez might also be options, though that would require a further roster move. Josh Winder and Ronny Henriquez have also been mentioned by Falvey as options, though both are dealing with potential arm health issues in camp.
So we’ll adjust the roster by giving one spot to a long reliever, which crowds the other three guys into two spots. I’m also going to break my rule about overreacting to game performances, and add Emilio Pagan to that group, just because the grand slam he gave up on Thursday gave me a little PTSD.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but there might be some injuries
It’s early in camp, so I’m not going to adjust the any of the statuses, but we’re all keeping an eye on when we next see Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton, and Nick Gordon in a game. There is no indication that they won’t all be ready by Opening Day, so, again, no changes to the chart. But baseball is a “show me” game, and the color on those spots could change in a couple more weeks if we’re not shown something soon. If any of them don’t happen, Larnach might be back on the roster.
So here’s the new chart.
C Vazquez   SP Gray 1B Kirilloff   SP P Lopez 2B Polanco   SP Mahle 3B Miranda   SP Maeda SS Correa   SP Ryan LF Gallo       CF Buxton   CL Duran RF Kepler   RP J Lopez DH Solano   RP Jax       RP Thielbar Bench C Jeffers   RP Pagan/Moran Bench OF Taylor   RP Moran/Alcala Bench IF Farmer   RP Alcala/Megill Bench  Gordon   LR Sands/Headrick We'll have plenty more chances to overreact before I attack this again. Any new injury is that much closer to Opening Day, as is every game in which one of the regulars doesn't appear. We'll may see some big or clutch performances by Twins players playing in the World Baseball Classis, and their absence will absolutely create opportunities for other players trying to wedge their way onto the roster. 
So if you're disappointed that there isn't more change, stay tuned. The temptation to overreact and embrace drama only gets more heated going forward. 

Today's exclusive Caretaker-only audio content include John Bonnes and Nick Nelson discussing
Louie Varland's rough outing, but why he was encouraged and the feedback that Baldelli gave him afterwards An update on Caleb Thielbar, who we haven't seen in a spring training game Baldelli's thoughts on Jovani Moran's possible bullpen roles, and what he's looking at for the last four spots in the Twins' bullpen. Baldelli dunking on Nick but still revealing some of his thoughts on who could fill the Twins leadoff role. The problems the Twins had with the pitch clock in the game, and an update on whether it'll be used in the WBC. If you're a Caretaker, just scroll down for your exclusive content!
And if you're not, maybe consider becoming a Caretaker? You likely visit regularly, and that's going to become even more likely as the season gears up. Supporting something you value feels good, especially when it's been here feeding your baseball habit for over 10 years for free, right?
We're in spring training reporting because we love this stuff, and we want to share it as much as we can, so you can find lot of free content from Fort Myers other places on the site. But unfortunately, spring training is expensive, and that's especially true this year after Hurricane Ian damaged a lot of the lodging options. 
Plus, there are lot of other benefits, like a free Winter Meltdown ticket and early access for guest, special callouts on the site, and lots more inside or in-depth content like this. So please consider joining our little club. The money is going to a site you love, to support coverage you love, and writers you value. Thank you so much.  
Join Here to support Twins Daily and get your exclusive content!

In thinking about this year’s offseason, it is no doubt that the Twins have prioritized defense. Beyond the return of Carlos Correa, both Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano bring depth to the left and right of the diamond. But the story doubles in the outfield. Newcomers Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo might struggle at the plate, but both represent major upgrades in their defensive abilities. Although Matt Wallner might look major-league ready, he’ll remain in the minor leagues for now as no deal was enough for the team to part with Max Kepler. Trevor Larnach, Gilberto Celestino, and Nick Gordon might show up, but the depth of the outfield now accounts for injuries. And in recent seasons, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Griffin Jax, and Kenta Maeda have all been near the top of the fly ball list for MLB pitchers. Also, perhaps you have heard of Byron Buxton?
For what it’s worth, Derek Falvey and company have a plan in place. But they could also end up victims of the indifferent baseball gods that may send those balls sailing above their heads.
Ever since 2017, “juiced” balls have been a major topic of conversation within the league with discrepant years. At first, studies by Ben Lindbergh and Rob Arthur demonstrated a clearly new composition within MLB’s baseballs beginning in 2015. Theories about how and why the ball changed only increased with the league’s purchase of Rawlings, the company responsible for the balls in 2018. The Twins, for their part, took advantage in 2019, breaking open the single-season major-league record for home runs, a total that has yet to be topped.
But since 2019, the ball suddenly stopped flying. The shortened season impacted the data in 2020, but it was clear by 2021 that a new baseball was landing dead on the warning track over and over. MLB said nothing. 
This new ball has put a dent in numerous plans. Most teams had begun prioritizing a Three True Outcome approach, which became less useful when that most important outcome—the home run—became less likely to occur. Luis Arraez demonstrated that maybe it was time to go back to an old-school approach. 
MLB finally took responsibility after a notable study by Bradford William Davis and astrophysicist Meredith Wills proved that 2021 featured two different baseballs with different cores, resulting in wildly different results. 2022 went even crazier, as Wills and Davis found three different balls, including a “goldilocks” ball that just happens to appear most often on Sunday Night games and Yankees games, just as Aaron Judge chased his home run record. MLB admitted to the 2021 shenanigans but has forcefully denied the 2022 allegations. 
Whatever it means, the Twins have had to make a guess about how to construct a team for 2023 without any idea what ball might show up. If the ball’s drag keeps it in the park, the Twins will be in luck with a defense ready to shag balls all season long. 
But if the league decides that baseball needs more home run chases, the Twins might find their entire off-season construction to be built for an entirely different game. What’s the point of having an elite defense if all your pitchers do is serve up long balls? 
This is not to fault the organization for choosing such a route. If anything, MLB has refused to share with teams what they might expect from the ball, and their silence on the issue has only fueled conspiracies within the players about how they might be attempting to hurt their free agency. Manfred and company might not exactly know why the balls act the way they do before it is much too late. In 2022, they at least instituted humidors as a mandatory practice for all 30 league ballparks to help create some uniformity. But if they know more about the upcoming ball than teams do, why not let teams and players prepare?
One can at least hope MLB is hoping for a ball that might find some balance. With new rules in place specifically meant to increase “small ball” offense, this is the year to find a ball that might not make it to the seats but at least won’t die on the warning track. And yet, it is hard to believe that MLB has ever had a plan in place. 
The Twins can only pray they get the right balls for this comeback season. It would be a shame for a franchise playing a smart approach to the offseason only to be cooked by a complete disaster of an unknown. Until we get into the season and finally meet the ball, the answer to the Twins’ offseason tactics will remain a mystery.

Twins fans got to see Carlos Correa in his first Grapefruit League action on Wednesday afternoon as he batted second and started at shortstop in the Twins 4-4 tie with the Philadelphia Phillies. He singled in his first at-bat and felt good even before that. On his first swing he pulled a ball foul and then stepped outside the batter's box to reflect on how good his swing was. Then he remembered the new pitch clock. John Bonnes got the rest of the story from Correa. ⬇️🙃
correaclock-landscape.mp4  
 

It's not uncommon to hear that a pitcher's velocity is up early in spring training - right up until we actually see in-game radar readings. But we are seeing those now, and the velocity is sticking around. What's going on, and it a positive sign for the future? John Bonnes reports from Twins spring training.
export_1677674240147_landscape.mp4  
 

The Twins triumphed over the Atlanta Braves, 10-7, in Hammond Stadium in Fort Myers on Tuesday afternoon. It was Tyler Mahle's first game since shoulder fatigue shut down his 2022 season, but his stuff looked great, with velocity exceeding last year's average fastball velocity. The Twins jumped on an early lead thanks to two infielders - Edouard Julien and Willi Castro - who are likely slated for St. Paul. But the postgame talk with manager Rocco Baldelli revealed some injuries that were reflected in the game's lineup. John Bonnes has the details from the game.
twins-braves-landscape.mp4  
 

Nick Gordon got a lot of experience in the Twins injury-filled 2022, but he's also in line for a lot of time in 2023. John Bonnes explains why from spring training. 
nick-gordon-2023-landscape.mp4  
 

If you're familiar with the dynamics of spring training, then you know it's uncommon for established veteran regulars to make long road trips, and that was certainly true of this game, which featured José Miranda as the only regular present in the lineup. 
There were, however, several notable players involved in the game, including 2022 Twins Opening Day starter Joe Ryan, who made his first outing of the spring.
His performance ranked among the five most striking observations I came away with in a 10-8 Phillies victory at BayCare Ballpark.
1: My first impressions of the pitch clock
The addition of a pitch clock this year represents one of the most significant and impactful rule changes in Major League Baseball for some time, so naturally I was eager to see it in action. There's been a lot of early handwringing from various corners about how distracting and disruptive it is. 
To me it seemed like ... not a big deal?
It'd be tough to call the pitch clock unnoticeable, given the big digital countdown timer that now adorns the backstop, ticking off seconds from a starting point of 0:15, 0:20, or 0:25, depending on the game situation. The speedier pace of the game was definitely noticeable, especially in this case – a 10-8 spring training game is the kind of high-scoring affair that often drags on for nearly four hours, leaving everyone involved in a grumpy mood, but this one wrapped up in just over three (3:06, to be exact).
I definitely got the sense that both pitchers and hitters were more intentional about readying up and doing their thing, but no one seemed especially rushed. Ryan, who started for the Twins, has always moved at a pretty good pace and he was flying, typically delivering his pitches with seven or eight seconds left on the clock. 
2: Joe Ryan experiments with new pitches
Ryan's velocity was good in this outing, sitting in the 92-93 MPH range regularly on the stadium radar and reaching as high as 94.3 MPH, which he seemed very pleased with.
Of course, Ryan's fastball is not in question. It was the best pitch on the staff last year. Ryan's lack of overpowering secondary stuff is what limits his upside, and it's clearly something he's focused on addressing in his sophomore season, as he aims to refine a sweeping slider with more horizontal movement and a split changeup.
Ryan's outing was not especially smooth – he needed 40 pitches to get four outs before being removed in the second inning – but that's forgivable in his first spring start, and even more so with the experimentation going on. And Ryan seemed pleased on that front as well.
3: Edouard Julien bats leadoff
The big uncertainty in the wake of the Luis Arraez trade was ... who's going to replace what he brought to the table? Julien was a name that came to mind for many people (including myself) – he's been a lefty-swinging OBP machine in the minors, with no clear positional fit, harkening to Arraez in multiple ways.
Julien was fittingly in the leadoff spot on Sunday in Clearwater. As expected, he took a lot of pitches ... but not with successful results on this occasion. The second baseman struck out in all three of his at-bats, including on called third strikes in both of his first two.
For any prospect who draws way more walks than you'd expect based on his hitting ability, the question with Julien was whether his on-base skills owed more to patience or passivity. Games like Sunday's point toward the latter, and that's a perception he'll need to prove his way out of. But, it's only one game.
4: Big bases come in handy
The new larger bases are not conspicuous to the naked eye – at least not mine – but there's no doubt they will come into play throughout the upcoming season in very subtle ways. We might've seen an example on Sunday.
Miranda reached first base in the first inning, and seemed like he was inclined to steal second. During the next at-bat, he took a huge running lead on one pitch before Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto whipped the ball over to first in an effort to pick him off. Miranda scrambled back to the base, and seemed to be dead in the water. Yet, he was safe, getting his fingertip on the bag just in time to beat the tag. 
I feel confident in saying it's the first time a Twins baserunner has been saved by the bigger bases. I'm sure it won't be the last.
5: Trevor Megill struggles mightily
Outside of Ryan, the only projected member of the Twins pitching staff to appear in this game was Megill, but he's hurting his chances. 
There aren't many true position battles happening this spring, which detracts from the drama a bit, but Megill is certainly fighting for one of the last bullpen spots. The Twins love his power pitch mix, which was on display as his fastball reached 97 MPH multiple times, but the righty continues to struggle with execution, and his outing on Sunday was flat-out ugly.
Megill simply could not seem to find the zone, and when he did, he got crushed. While recording only one out, he gave up three walks and three hits, including two home runs – one of which was a grand slam. He threw only 14 of 33 pitches for strikes and mixed in a wild pitch for good measure. 
The first spring training appearance should be treated for what it is, but Megill isn't exactly on firm footing – he was a waiver pickup who posted a 4.80 ERA last year, including 7.66 after August 1st. His brutal first outing of the spring leaves him with a 162.00 ERA which will make it almost impossible to finish the exhibition season with decent numbers. And the timing of this clunker was especially bad on a day where the Twins brought in two new right-handed relievers: Dennis Santana (waivers) and Jeff Hoffman (minors deal). 
On Monday, Pablo López and the Twins face the Red Sox at JetBlue Park. We'll have plenty of coverage, with myself and John Bonnes both in the building. Make sure to check back and find all of the key takeaways from this one.

We're trying something new for Twins Daily's Caretakers: an audio report from John Bonnes on what he's seeing and hearing from players, coaches, and management inside Hammond Stadium. Today's report includes:
News on Jorge Polanco's slow ramp up in spring training, and whether is knee is already a concern Emilio Pagan's offseason, and why his first bullpen session was so encouraging Thoughts from pitching coach Pater Maki on camp and how the Twins are adjusting to the new pitching clock. If you're a Caretaker, just scroll down for your exclusive content!
And if you're not, maybe consider becoming a Caretaker? You likely visit regularly, and that's going to become even more likely as the season gears up. Supporting something you value feels good, especially when it's been here feeding your baseball habit for over 10 years for free, right?
We're in spring training reporting because we love this stuff, and we want to share it as much as we can, so you can find lot of free content from Fort Myers other places on the site. But unfortunately, spring training is expensive, and that's especially true this year after Hurricane Ian damaged a lot of the lodging options. 
Plus, there are lot of other benefits, like a free Winter Meltdown ticket and early access for guest, special callouts on the site, and lots more inside or in-depth content like this. So please consider joining our little club. The money is going to a site you love, to support coverage you love, and writers you value. Thank you so much.  
Join Here to support Twins Daily and get your exclusive content!

solano-signing-landscape.mp4  
 

Last season, the lockout forced MLB to allow teams to begin the year with 28-man rosters. The lockout forced a shortened spring training, and baseball was worried about an increased chance of player injuries. For 2023, teams must narrow their final roster to 26 players. Players listed below with the ** are on the bubble for the final roster spots. 
Catchers (2): Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers
Minnesota's catching duo has been set since the club signed Vazquez to a multi-year deal. It was clear from the onset of the off-season that the Twins targeted Vazquez and paid a premium to sign him. The Twins have six catchers among their non-roster invitees to spring training, including veterans Tony Wolters, Grayson Greiner, and Chance Sisco. Teams rarely rely on just two catchers for an entire season, so the Twins will likely need help from these veterans to play at some point during the 2023 campaign. 
Infielders (5): Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Alex Kirilloff**, Jose Miranda, Jorge Polanco 
Adding Correa to this group pushed Farmer to a utility role, which might be a better fit for his skill set. Miranda is getting the full-time job at third base after the team traded Gio Urshela earlier this winter. Polanco figures to get most of the playing time at second base, but it will be interesting to see if he feels any pressure from the team's top prospects. Kirilloff will get time at first base, but the team might have another option (see below) if the team wants him to get regular rest at the season's start. Top prospects like Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, and Austin Martin can add depth to this group in the second half. 
Outfielders (6): Byron Buxton, Gilberto Celestino**, Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon**, Max Kepler, Michael A. Taylor
By adding Taylor, the Twins have three former Gold Glove winners in the outfield and another Gold Glove finalist. Minnesota's outfield defense has the potential to be one of baseball's best, but all four players can't fit in the outfield at the same time. Gallo has logged over 746 innings at first base, so the team might be comfortable moving him to the infield so Kirilloff can slowly work his way back. Gilberto Celestino can start the year at Triple-A, a level where he has played fewer than 25 games. Nick Gordon is out of minor-league options, so the Twins will keep him based on his breakout performance in 2022. Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner add depth to the organization's outfield, but they will have to power their way from St. Paul to Minneapolis.  
Rotation (5): Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan
Some Twins fans were disappointed the Twins traded Arraez, but Lopez lengthened the Twins' starting rotation. Depth was needed because there are injury concerns surrounding numerous players in the rotation. Since the last projection, Bailey Ober got bumped to Triple-A because of the Lopez addition. Other young pitchers like Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Jordan Balazovic will be waiting for an opportunity. It is one of the deepest rotations the Twins have had in recent memory, and the club will have to rely on that depth if/when the injury bug strikes again. 
Bullpen (8): Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagan, Jorge Alcala**, Jovani Moran**, Trevor Megill**
Minnesota has done little to address the bullpen this winter, but that has been a common theme for a front office that relies on veterans and internal options. Since Twins Daily's initial roster projection, all of the above names have stayed the same. Duran and Lopez should get the bulk of the high-leverage opportunities. Jax and Thielbar will combine to be a bridge to the late-inning arms. Pagan is a wild card, but the Twins are hoping for a better performance from a player with good stuff. ZiPS projects feel like the Twins' bullpen is top-heavy, which makes sense considering the recent track record of players expected to be on the roster. Minnesota will have some decisions at the bullpen's backend with other 40-man roster options like Ronny Henriquez, Cole Sands, and Josh Winder.   

How do you feel about the team's depth at multiple positions? What changes will happen to the team's roster before Opening Day? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
 

Leading into the 2023 season, fans can analyze different projection systems to predict the performance of any big-league team. For this article, Steamer projections will be featured. According to MLB.com, Steamer uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. It also uses pitch-tracking data to help forecast pitchers. 
Steamer projects the Twins' top five position players as Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Jose Miranda, and Christian Vazquez. On the mound, the top five pitchers are all starters, including Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda. It would be easy to target any of those players and say they need to outperform their projections, but let's dig deeper into the roster. 
Joey Gallo, OF
2023 Steamer Projection: .188/.313/.393, 105 wRC+, 2.7 Off, -6.3 Def, 1.1 WAR
The Twins signed Gallo to a one-year, $11 million deal in hopes of him returning to the All-Star caliber player he was in previous seasons. He's coming off his worst professional season, as he posted a .638 OPS and a 79 OPS+ over 126 games for the Yankees and the Dodgers. His projected slugging percentage is 76 points below his career average, which is one area he will need to outperform his projection. His defensive total also seems extremely low for a player known as a strong defender. Last year, he posted a -1.3 Def, his lowest total since 2017. 
Trevor Larnach, OF
2023 Steamer Projection: .225/.306/.373, 96 wRC+, -1.9 OF, -5.3 Def, 0.3 WAR
Over the last two seasons, Larnach has dealt with multiple injuries, including a hand injury and a core muscle injury. When healthy, his powerful bat looks like it should be penciled into the middle of the Twins line-up. In 16 games last June, he posted a 1.077 OPS with six doubles and three home runs. Twins Daily's most recent roster projection has Larnach pegged to start the year at Triple-A. He will have to prove he is healthy and hit his way back to the big-league roster. Injuries will impact the Twins' outfield, and he needs to be ready when promoted. 
Jorge Alcala, RP
2023 Steamer Projection: 54 IP, 3.75 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.2 WAR
Alcala missed nearly all of the 2022 season after having arthroscopic debridement surgery on his throwing elbow. In 2021, Alcala posted a 3.92 ERA with 9.2 K/9 over 59 2/3 innings while earning opportunities in a late-inning role. The Twins didn't add anyone to the bullpen this winter, which makes Alcala's return even more critical. He's already produced more than 0.2 WAR in multiple big-league seasons, so that projection is the most significant discrepancy. If Alcala can outperform his projections, he may help to revitalize a core bullpen group that struggled through much of the first half of 2022. 
Jorge Lopez, RP
2023 Steamer Projection: 70 IP, 3.58 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.4 WAR
Steamer projects Lopez to provide the fourth-highest WAR total among Twins relievers. It's reasonable to think that the Twins would be disappointed in that result. Minnesota surrendered four pitching prospects (including Cade Povich) because they felt Lopez could upgrade the bullpen for multiple seasons. He struggled after the trade with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in 23 appearances. The Twins won't follow a traditional closer model, but Lopez will likely get save opportunities, primarily if Jhoan Duran is used in high-leverage situations earlier than the ninth inning. 
Which player is most likely to outperform their Steamer projection? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

For once, the Twins have some depth to their pitching staff with a mix of holdovers and younger arms in both the rotation and the bullpen. After a 2022 in which they turned Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax from starters to impact relievers, many have become interested in what struggling starting pitching prospect could be the next to follow that path. There are plenty of candidates to be fair. For now however, it doesn’t sound as though we’ll see those plans play out immediately.
Such a small piece of news but so much to draw from it. Assuming health, Bailey Ober appears to be headed for Triple-A to begin 2023 due to the MLB rotation depth. For once, however, the Triple-A rotation will be tons of fun with names such as Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson , and Jordan Balazovic behind him. It’s going to be a treat to attend CHS Field this summer to see some legitimate young arms throwing every day. With only limited spots in the Saints rotation, the Twins immediate plans to keep everyone starting is interesting.
Not being too quick to transition starters into the bullpen is good practice. Especially considering the health questions in the Twins rotation, it’s good to make sure there are as many arms as possible to step in if things go south. For now, it appears the last spot in St. Paul is a three-way battle with names such as Ronny Henriquez, Cole Sands, and Josh Winder. With a few injuries this spring, those three options for the #5 spot in St. Paul could all find themselves starting games consistently. It may quickly become an issue that works itself out.
It’s also just much easier to transition a pitcher from a starter to a reliever in a hurry than it is vice versa If the Twins health holds through the spring and they reconsider a few of their young arms, they could switch them over in no time as they did with Sands and Henriquez down the stretch in 2022. It may not have them as ready to relieve as they would be had they been preparing from Day 1, but some guys are able to flip the switch very quickly. Not committing young arms to those spots also opens up a few more possibilities.
The Twins may not have as much Opening Day bullpen depth with all of these young arms remaining starters, but they can go and get external depth to build up even more. As of February 15, players such as Royce Lewis and Chris Paddack can all be put on the 60-Day IL, opening 40-man spots. It’ll be interesting to see how the Twins choose to fill these spots, but it’s probably safe to bet on one addition to the bullpen at the very least.
The reliever market has been nearly bare for some time now, but a few fits still exist. They’ve already been linked to Chaska native Brad Hand, who’s far from the bullpen ace he once was but has continued to limit hard contact. Several other arms remain that they could take fliers on such as Will Smith or Trevor Rosenthal. They’re also due for their yearly waiver claim that makes the Opening Day roster. If they have any moves left to make, it’s easy to see at least one of them being a reliever because of the position-player logjam, and the Twins have at least two 40-man spots to fill if they feel inclined to make an addition.
It also may be too early to rule out a trade. It’s been reported that the Twins are likely to hold onto Max Kepler, but this could easily be posturing on the Twins part. The left-handed hitting outfield depth is to a point where it can be argued that it doesn’t make sense. They aren’t trading recently-signed Joey Gallo, and Trevor Larnach’s value is likely at a low point despite a hope that he can still become an impact hitter to pair with the plus defense that graded out in 2022. This still leaves Kepler as the likeliest player shipped out if a trade is made. As a "two-ish" win player who gets most of his value from defense at this point, he’s certainly a candidate to be sent out in a trade involving a reliever.
The Twins are left with a non-obvious answer for the next man up if one of the current MLB bullpen arms misses time. The Triple-A bullpen likely won’t have a young, obvious option to get the call if needed early in the season, although any acquisitions would likely push Jovani Moran into that spot once again (to this writer’s exhaustion). It’s likely that as the year goes on, we start to see some of these pitchers transition into the bullpen depending on the Twins MLB roster needs and how the young arms perform in the rotation.
Sands is noted as the closest one to making this switch after struggling all-around last season. Henriquez got hit far too hard as a Triple-A starter in 2022. Winder’s shoulder appears to be a chronic issue at this point. If any of these issues persist, look for the Twins to pivot quickly off of their preseason plans to keep these arms in the rotation. By season’s end, we’ll likely be seeing a few of them making appearances out of the bullpen.

Griffin Jax got a look as a starting pitcher down the inconsequential stretch of 2021. It didn’t go great as evidenced by his 6.37 ERA in 82 innings, but when his bright spots popped up, they were typically driven by a slider-heavy approach. 
While it can be rash to judge a starting pitching prospect when they struggle in their rookie season, the Twins opted to allow Jax to play to his strengths. In shorter stints, he could feature his wicked slider and complement it with a middling fastball that played up with a three mph increase in velocity. He went on to be a staple of the Twins bullpen, posting a 3.36 ERA in 72 1/3 innings. Could we see another Griffin Jax-type reliever in 2023?
Cole Sands
Sands became an afterthought to many in 2022 after being used to fill innings in several spots where the Twins were struggling to field a team. Never a prospect with a particularly high pedigree, it’s easy to see his ERA over 5.00 at both the Triple-A and MLB levels in 2022 and consider him as nothing more than a fringy fill-in type. The Twins however haven’t exhausted all of their options with Sands yet.
Sands’ carrying tool as a prospect has always been his huge breaking ball which received an excellent 70 grade by Fangraphs. He doesn’t excel in any other department, but there’s a world where the offspeed is good enough to make him a legitimate weapon if he can go out and throw it as much as he wants for an inning. The pitch was in the 88th percentile in spin rate in 2022 and stymied opposing hitters even as he was often used for multiple innings. With several other starting pitching prospects graduating into the depth chart, it may be time for Sands to make the switch.
Ronny Henriquez
Henriquez is listed at what has been described as a generous 5’10. Regardless of his size, he’s shown the ability to run his fastball into the mid-to-high-90s with impressive spin. In addition, he features a well-regarded slider and changeup as well. Despite these tools, Henriquez just didn’t show what he needed to in Triple-A, posting a 5.66 ERA in 2022 due to issues with the long ball. He made his MLB debut working as a multi-inning bullpen arm for 11 innings.
Henriquez could follow a similar path to Jax if converted to a traditional one to two inning reliever. He already featured his slider in his debut, throwing it about 46% of the time and drawing a 32% whiff rate. Like Jax, his fastball got absolutely pummeled. In a condensed role, it’s possible the fastball which debuted at 93.3 mph could gain a few ticks to help him get away with a few more mistakes. Unlike Jax, Henriquez appears to already have a solid left-hander equalizer in the changeup. If the Twins commit to the move for Henriquez at 23 years old, he has the tools to excel in short stints.
Bailey Ober
It may seem like a longshot for Ober to wind up in the bullpen, but he may be closer than many fans would like to believe. When it comes to the body of work for the 6’9 right-hander, it’s hard to complain about his performance. Ober has a sub 4.00 ERA across his first two MLB seasons and a legitimate four-pitch mix, making him a painful consideration to ever be moved to the bullpen.
It’s more about quantity than quality in Ober’s case, however. He’s had an injury-riddled career and has surpassed 100 innings just once in his five professional seasons. His lack of reliability likely played a big part in the Twins acquiring Pablo López, which appears to have pushed Ober out of the Opening Day rotation. Many would be surprised to know that he’s already 27 years old, and at this point, another multi-week IL stint will likely push prospects like Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson ahead of him on the rotational depth chart.
With his age, Ober not only becomes more of an injury risk every year, but his projectability becomes an issue. The idea of building up to even 140-150 innings is almost unfathomable following a 2022 season where he threw just over 70. At some point, the Twins may just decide that if Ober’s cap is 100 innings, he may be better off throwing 50-60 innings out of the bullpen and giving those bulk innings to younger starters who are still capable of reaching a starter’s workload. Ober’s already-sufficient pitch would most certainly play up in the bullpen, and it may even help keep him on the field.
Do you think the Twins have any more starting pitching prospects who could be headed for a successful bullpen job? Let us know below!
 
 

All player images are courtesy of ESPN.com

Heading into spring training, I put together an all-star team comprised of the best players at each position in the AL Central. Here's what I came up with.
Catcher
Winner: Christian Vazquez MIN
This position was a fun one to compare. With Yasmani Grandal, Salvador Perez, and newcomers Christian Vazquez and Mike Zunino, it was tough to pick the best overall catcher out of the bunch. Vazquez got the edge over the rest because of his defensive ability.
In 2022, Vazquez was among the league's best defensive players, accounting for 11 DRS. In comparison, Grandal had -5, Perez -4, and Zunino -2. At the plate, Grandal and Zunino are coming off down years, so it is hard to call either the best at the position. As for Perez… read on.
First Base
Winner: Josh Naylor CLE
First base is arguably the worst overall position in the AL Central. The position is chock-full with youngsters like Alex Kirilloff, Spencer Torkelson, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Andrew Vaughn, who could be excellent baseball players in the future. However, after a 20-home run season in which he produced 1.8 WAR, the 25-year-old Naylor gets the edge over the rest of the field in 2023.
Second Base
Winner: Andres Gimenez CLE
What a year it was for Andres Gimenez. 7.6 WAR and sixth in the MVP voting. Gimenez made significant strides in his game last year and cemented himself as one of the best second basemen in MLB. Jorge Polanco is the only other noteworthy second baseman in the division. While he is probably a top 10-second baseman in the MLB, he is still notably behind the skillset of Gimenez.
Shortstop
Winner: Carlos Correa MIN
The new $200M man put together another stellar season in 2022, earning himself a hefty contract extension that could span the rest of his career. MLB Network ranked Correa as the second-best shortstop in all the MLB, right behind the Phillies' new addition Trea Turner. Bobby Witt Jr.'s future is bright, but for the moment, the best shortstop in the Central award belongs to Correa.
Third Base
Winner: Jose Ramirez CLE
Third base was the biggest no-brainer of all. Jose Ramirez is among the best players in the league and has been providing top-level talent for Cleveland since 2016. There are some talented third basemen in the Central, but none were even close to Ramirez, a perennial MVP candidate.
Left Field
Winner: Steven Kwan CLE
Steven Kwan had an excellent rookie campaign for the Guardians, producing 5.5 WAR, finishing third in the AL Rookie of the Year race, and winning a Gold Glove. Kwan was a contact machine, drawing two more walks than strikeouts. Andrew Benintendi comes in second place here as the only other noteworthy left fielder.
Center Field
Winner: Byron Buxton MIN
Buxton is one of the best baseball players on the planet when healthy. He has every tool one could hope for in a star player. The only problem is Buxton has had a hell of a time staying healthy. Since he became an everyday player in the MLB in 2016, Buxton has played more than 92 games only once. Despite the minimal playing time, Buxton still has put up better numbers than the rest of the division and was ranked the second-best center fielder by MLB Network. If Buxton was to play 130 games, he could push for an MVP award.
Right Field
Winner: Max Kepler MIN
Right field is another relatively weak position. Kepler gets the edge here over the field. An elite-level defender, who has shown flashes with the bat, Kepler produced 2.1 WAR in what was considered a down year in 2022. Kepler is also a candidate for positive regression at the plate in 2023 with the banning of the shift.
Designated Hitter
Winner: Salvador Perez KC
While Perez doesn't have it defensively behind the plate, he can still swing the bat with the best of them. Perez hit 48 home runs in 2021, and while injuries limited his production in 2022, he still produced 23 home runs, 76 RBIs, and 2.7 WAR.
Starting Pitcher
Winner: Dylan Cease CHW
One could argue for Shane Bieber, but Cease was undoubtedly better in 2022. Cease was unstoppable, producing 6.4 WAR, second in the Cy Young voting, and 22nd in the AL MVP race. Just entering his prime, Cease should only get better in the coming years and terrorize the division for years.
Relief Pitcher
Winner: Emmanuel Clase CLE
Emmanuel Clase is nightmare fuel for opposing hitters. Clase wrapped up 2022 to the tune of 42 saves, a 1.36 ERA, and 2.8 WAR. He was voted MLB Networks' best relief pitcher, so it was hard not to choose him as the best relief pitcher in the AL Central. However, I should also mention another relief pitcher who produced 2.8 WAR in 2022 and has similarly nasty stuff. Jhoan Duran put together quite the rookie year for the Twins and should continue to thrive in his role in the back end of the bullpen.
Totals
CLE: 5 
MIN: 4
CHW: 1
KC: 1
DET: 0
Debate on! Where do you agree? Where do you disagree? Let me know in the comments!
 
 

We’ve received more straightforward news on the Max Kepler front these last few days. After speculation grew regarding the Twins possibly keeping the left-handed outfielder, Dan Hayes reports that Kepler sticking around is likely at this point. It’s been discussed how Max Kepler still has value in the right role to help the Twins if he stays. This news does make us second guess parting with Gio Urshela earlier this winter, however.
The Twins decision to trade Gio Urshela was straightforward at the time. Jose Miranda is getting a fair crack at being the everyday third baseman, and Urshela’s projected arbitration salary was a bit high for a player whose role wasn’t certain. They followed it up by signing Joey Gallo to a one-year, $11 million prove-it deal. This all but cemented the fact that Max Kepler was on the way out, as six left-handed corner outfielders on the 40-man roster is beyond excessive. With the addition of Gallo and Kepler apparently staying around, however, the Twins may have misplayed their hand.
It appears the plan with Kepler still being in the mix is for Joey Gallo to play a lot of first base in 2023. With Alex Kirilloff’s health being in question and Gallo having some experience there, it makes sense given the state of the current 40-man roster. Consider however that given Joey Gallo's recent offensive struggles, a fair bit of his floor value comes from his defense in the outfield. Perhaps his offense rebounds to passable levels for a first baseman, but his ability to cover ground and throw out runners on the base paths would be all but nullified by a move to first base. 
Make no mistake, the debate didn’t have to be Urshela vs Gallo for the first base platoon role. It seemed that the plan was to trade Max Kepler for much of the offseason. The Twins asking price appeared to have been high all along, but given the level of player Kepler is at this point and the context of the roster, it’s confusing why they’d play hardball on his price on the trade market.
Urshela was a far more valuable player than Kepler in 2022 by any Wins Above Replacement measure and was essentially given away for free because of his redundancy with Miranda moving over to the hot corner. The irony in this is that the Twins now have Gallo, Larnach, Gordon, Wallner, Kirilloff, and Kepler as left-handed corner outfield options and it appears they haven’t lowered their asking price at all. Kepler has a $10 million option for 2024, but do the Twins really plan on paying that if Kepler’s performance from the last two years continues?
The Twins current roster includes a massive left-handed logjam with players like Joey Gallo out of position where his skillset isn’t being maximized. Several young players such as Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner who should be nearing their chance to show what they can do are now pushed further down the line by the excessive outfield depth chart. They could have a better platoon partner for Kirilloff and one more right-handed bat in Gio Urshela for less money, but instead, they traded this scenario away for a 19-year-old pitching prospect in the low minors.
It’s hard to say there weren’t miscalculations on the Twins part this offseason. Looking at the roster now, it becomes clear that Urshela’s value to the team exceeded the value he carried on the trade market. This is further exacerbated by the Twins appearing to overvalue Kepler on the trade market despite the obvious lack of need for him on the roster. If they valued Kepler this highly, why sign Joey Gallo at all as opposed to keeping Gio Urshela or designating that $11 million to a right-handed hitter with more experience at first base?
It’s possible Max Kepler is still traded before the season and that the roster makes a lot more sense on Opening Day. As things stand now, however, it sure looks like dumping Gio Urshela for anything they could get was a mistake. Do you agree?
 
 
 

López, who will turn 27 in March, has five pitches, and he’s tinkered with his arsenal several times in the past few years, as he and the Marlins have tried to accomplish the ascension from mid-rotation starter with upside to ace. The Twins will try to further refine that mix. It all starts, though, with the two pitches that require little in the way of further polish: his fastball and his changeup.
When it comes to heaters, the Twins have a type, in more ways than one. Firstly, they like four-seamers, not sinkers. Only the Dodgers threw more four-seamers than did the Twins in 2022, and only the Dodgers threw fewer sinkers. 
Fastball Usage, MLB Teams, 2022
Highest Four-Seam %
Lowest Sinker %
Team
%
Team
%
Dodgers
43.9
Dodgers
6.1
Twins
42.3
Twins
6.9
Reds
41.7
Guardians
8.3
Astros
41.1
Reds
9.5
White Sox
40.1
Mariners
10.0
Source: Pitch Info, via FanGraphs
López has both pitches, and the Twins aren’t dogmatic about this, so it’s possible they’ll allow him to keep using each. (Sonny Gray, who came over from a team with similar fastball tendencies in the Reds, threw his sinker more than a quarter of the time last year–though he did throw the four-seamer more, for the first time since 2019.) On balance, though, they’re much more likely to have him eliminate the sinker, because (like Gray) he has a four-seamer with the other characteristic they love: a very flat Vertical Approach Angle (VAA).
In the world of pitching nerds, VAA is all the rage. It’s a statistic which requires multiple measurements of the position and velocity of the ball, plus a bit of physics knowledge, and it’s not as publicly available as velocities or spin rates, but it’s a very important piece of information about any pitch. 
It’s a product, mostly, of three things: velocity, release point, and the location of the pitch when it enters the hitting zone. López throws hard, and despite his 6-foot-4 frame, he has a low release point. His arm angle isn’t sidearm, exactly, but it’s certainly a low three-quarters delivery, and he sinks into his legs well. Of the 169 pitchers who threw at least 500 four-seam fastballs last year, Joe Ryan had the sixth-lowest vertical release point. Gray had the 28th-lowest. Nestled between them at 21st-lowest was López, despite the fact that he stands two and six inches taller than those two hurlers, respectively. 
Though his height doesn’t factor into the equation in the usual way, López does make use of his size. He gets down the mound and achieves near-elite extension through release, and in combination with his raw velocity, that means that López’s four-seamer has an average perceived velocity of 94.5 miles per hour, according to Statcast. That was good for 44th out of 143 qualifying pitchers last year. 
The velocity is a welcome addition to the Minnesota rotation, because they ranked 29th in average perceived velocity from starters in 2022, the lowest they’ve landed during the PITCHf/x Era. Given how long it took the team to prioritize velocity at all, that’s jarring.
All of this means that almost wherever he throws it within the zone, López has his fastball riding a bit more than does a typical pitcher. He doesn’t generate impressive spin rates or raw movement numbers, but because of the way he throws, those same quirks give him a flat VAA that makes his four-seamer highly effective. 
Fastballs with a flat VAA generally enjoy higher-than-average rates of both whiffs and called strikes, and they have a wider margin for error. López fills up the strike zone with his heat and still has an above-average whiff rate with it, and he gets an elite number of called strikes on the pitch. 
The Twins’ tweaks to the fastball, then, will be minimal. They’ll have him largely junk the sinker, but he already used that less often in 2022 than in the past, even with the sinker-happy Marlins. 
They’ll also try to help López attack the areas of the zone where he has more success with the four-seamer, and focus less on spots where his command gets a bit loose. He excels when he keeps the ball up and to the arm side (in on righties, away from lefties), regardless of which handedness of batter he’s facing. He also does well when working down and to the glove side (in on lefties, away from righties). Those are the locations where we would expect him to be most effective, too, based on his arm action. Consistently hitting those spots will allow him, eventually, to better set up the rest of his arsenal.
Speaking of which, we should talk briefly about López’s changeup, about which the Twins will have no notes. Hardly anyone could. Growing up in Venezuela, López got many chances to watch and admire both Johan Santana and Félix Hernández, aces who relied on changeups they could throw in any count, to same- or opposite-handed batters. He’s developed a similar weapon. No one threw more right-on-right or left-on-left changeups than did López in 2022, and it wasn’t especially close.
Most Changeups Thrown to Same-Handed Batters, 2022
Player
Number
Pablo López
481
Zach Davies
442
Logan Webb
344
Lucas Giolito
327
Ian Anderson
322
Source: Baseball Savant
Coming from that low arm slot, and with López’s impressive ability to manipulate his hand position, his changeup takes off to the arm side and has heavy sinking action. Of 140 pitchers who threw at least 200 changeups last year, López had more horizontal movement than all but seven, and more sink than all but 31. 
It gets above-average whiff rates and above-average ground ball rates, despite being compared to pitches used much more carefully and much less frequently. He can make it even more devastating, too, if he can turn the corner with the other two offerings in his repertoire.
Let’s remember that, as I wrote a few weeks ago in a discussion of Gray, pitching is really two different tasks in one. Pitching to same-handed batters requires different skills and a different mindset than pitching to opposite-handed ones. One reason for that is that relatively few pitches work well against both types of hitter. 
López has a leg up in that regard, since (as we’ve already said) his fastball and his change can both neutralize batters from either side. To be a front-of-the-rotation starter, though, one usually needs a third pitch for all opponents. For López, those complementary pieces are already in place, but there’s plenty of room to make them better.
Against lefties, López prefers to work high in the zone with his fastball, which is sound thinking. As we’ve already noted, his heat has characteristics that allow him to have success throughout the zone, but his best command spots are up and away and down and in against lefties. Even for such a good pitch, consistently going down and in on lefties is dangerous work. Climbing the ladder also has the salutary effect of setting up his changeup, allowing him to change eye levels. 
However, he can augment that approach by increasing and altering the usage of his curveball as a third thing for which hitters have to account. He started to do that a bit more in 2022.

The curve also took on more of a vertical shape last season, until it was more or less an 11-to-5 breaker. That’s pretty remarkable, considering the way he throws, even if it’s not the 12-to-6 that profiles best against opposite-handed hitters.
 The arm angle has been one limiting factor in the development of López’s curve. His inability to generate elite spin has been another. Even so, he’s had some success with the pitch. Last year, he only allowed four hits on the pitch–all singles. No other pitcher who threw at least 200 curves allowed as low a batting average as the .095 hitters managed against López’s, let alone doing so without giving up any power, and he did get 18 strikeouts with it. 
Unfortunately, he did so by throwing the pitch too selectively, and with too little conviction. Despite not getting hurt on it even once, he threw it for a strike less than any other pitcher in baseball, and he hardly ever threw it except when ahead in the count. In the past, he used the pitch to steal strikes on the first pitch of at-bats, but this year, that tendency disappeared.
Pablo López, Pitch Usage v. LHH, 2022

Partially as a result of that change in tack, López also stopped throwing the curve for a strike. No pitcher in baseball threw their curve in the zone less often than he did. Given López’s control, it’s inconceivable that he simply lost the ability to hit the zone with that offering. They say if you’re never racing to the gate ahead of the final boarding call, you’re getting to the airport too early. López needs to live a little more dangerously with his curve to neutralize lefties better, and the Twins will help him do so.
Against righties, the combination of his fastball and his unique confidence in the changeup make López tough, but his cutter is where his breakout potential lies. Last year, he began a transformation of that pitch, from a hard, short counterbalance to his sinker into something closer to a slider, with bigger break and a velocity differential of 5-7 miles per hour from his fastball. He also started throwing it more, particularly against righties.

As they get López targeting his most effective quadrants with the fastball, the Twins can help his cutter play up by having him play the pitch directly off of the heater. A heater up and in on a righty can set up a cutter running from the middle of the plate out to the edge. One located down and away can set up a strike-to-ball cutter off the plate for a chase and a whiff. The latter sequence could be especially effective, because hitters have to keep that filthy changeup in mind. 
Knowing that, they’re not likely to see the cutter well when it starts on the outer edge. They’ll identify that it isn’t the change and start their swing, but be fooled by the spin axis, which is nearly identical to that of López’s four-seamer. The movement difference comes mostly from seam-shifted wake, which hitters struggle to read. López only used the pitch to try to get ahead early in counts, but in the right sequences, he could turn it into a putaway pitch at times.
There are weaknesses in López’s game that cap his upside somewhere south of elite status. He’s an intelligent, multitalented hurler, though, and while he’s already shown the ability to be an above-average workhorse at the big-league level, the Twins gave up an All-Star and fan favorite for him because they have designs on making him even better than that.

The Twins paid Miguel Sano over $9 million for only one home run among five hits in 60 at-bats in 2022. And then paid him another $3 million to simply go away.
Much has been made of Sanó’s inability to stay healthy or in shape or, simply, not show up a few dozen pounds overweight.
Everything above is completely true. So true, in fact, that even those who look for silver linings aren’t going to have much of an argument to make. 
But I still think the Twins should consider bringing him back into the fold. 
The expectations surrounding Sanó were sky-high well before he made his major-league debut as a 22-year-old in the summer of 2015. And despite striking out in over a third of his plate appearance, he still managed to hit 18 home runs in 80 games, reach base over 38% of the time and put up an OPS of .916. He rarely played in the field as he was coming off missing the 204 season because of Tommy John surgery, but the vision of being the third baseman of the future was still bright.
Of course, we all know what happened the next year: someone got the wise idea that Miguel Sanó could be a right-fielder (while literally every not-as-smart person knew he couldn’t) and Sanó was back to playing third base exclusively by July 1. 
Getting jerked around caused him to struggle offensively, but still he managed 25 home runs and bounced back to be an All-Star in the 2017 season. 
The 2018 and 2020 seasons were both really bad, but sandwiched around a 34-home run year in 2019 where Sanó post a career-high .923 OPS.
You could take the 2020 season for what it was - short with a lack of time to prepare - add it to the 30 home run season in 2021 and think maybe, just maybe, Miguel Sanó could get back on track in 2022. But that train derailed before even leaving the station. 
A torn meniscus on April 26 and more knee issues almost immediately after returning in July caused an abrupt end to a short, disappointing season.
The Twins paid Sanó more than $34 million as a major leaguer and watched him strike out over 1000(!) times. And when his Twins career ended unceremoniously when they bought out his contract, many were happy to wipe their hands off him.
And that’s fine.
But as you look at the current construction of the Twins roster, you can’t help but wonder about the health and depth of first base. 
Luis Arraez - all 5’ 10” of him - is expected to be the Opening Day starter. Arreaz was fantastic in 2021 and led the league in hitting, but is not your prototypical first baseman… and he’s not exactly a model of healthy knees.
Jose Miranda played a lot of first base last year… but with Gio Urshela getting traded, Miranda is the primary third baseman.
Alex Kirilloff is a solution… if he recovers from having his arm shortened after battling wrist that cut short his last two seasons.
Max Kepler and Joey Gallo are both options in the sense that they’re bigger targets, but neither has played a lot of first base recently. But that’s an easy fix. Tell ‘em Wash.
And there’s where Sanó should enter the conversation. On a minor-league deal with an invitation to Spring Training. If he shows up overweight and out of shape, you can cut him. If he shows up a little overweight and in a shape other than completely round, you can send him to St. Paul to hit bombs and be a call away if the questionable depth fails in front of him.
Miguel Sanó doesn’t have to be the #3 hitter. There doesn’t have to be the expectations of being an All-Star or hitting 30 home runs. But any gas that might still be in his almost-30-year-old tank sure beats the idea of rostering the likes of the Curtis Terrys, Roy Moraleses and Tim Beckhams of the world.
It does for me anyway.
 
 

A recent report in The Athletic, which reads more like an off-hand comment than a groundbreaking revelation, purports that the Twins have expressed interest in RHP Michael Wacha.
Now, “expressed interest” is a favorite baseball term that can loosely define every style of relationship a team can have with a player. Thad Levine vaguely dreaming about Wacha could lead to the team “expressing interest.” The Phillies have “expressed interest” in Mike Trout for a decade. The term means nothing.
The connection makes sense, though. The Twins have yet to sign a major-league pitcher; Wacha is an arm capable of accruing outs between reasonable levels of runs scoring. With a bunch of theoretical payroll space and Carlos Correa probably still signing with the Mets, the Twins should spend their money on something. It’s a perfect pairing. 
But we’ve been down this path before. J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Dylan Bundy, and Chris Archer are four other arms who once possessed some nebulous upside, enough to convince a professional franchise to pay them money for their pitching labor. What happened after those players signed is well-known; we don’t have to tread that path again.
Wacha is his own man, though; it would be unfair—and illogical—to believe he would match those past pitcher’s sins just because he loosely fits their outline. The Red Sox, Mets, and Rays, teams run by baseball people far brighter than us casuals, looked at Wacha, glanced at his numbers, and believed in him enough to guarantee millions of dollars to the former Cardinal standout. These weren’t teams chasing a false promise; they fairly gambled that, with a few alterations, Wacha could provide enough production to bring their franchise value. 
The bet didn’t work for the Mets or Rays, but it worked enough for the Red Sox that one could generously declare their deal a success. 
So, Wacha could do the same for Minnesota; that possibility remains tangible. The issue is a baseball-specific sunk cost fallacy mixed with classic roster manipulation. Those past deals—beyond turning sour as each pitcher failed to play well—failed because the Twins continued to send those arms out to die. Bundy inhaled 140 real major-league innings. He’ll now slither into baseball obscurity on a minor-league deal with *insert team here.* Or he’ll become an ace. Baseball is funny like that.
The Twins told Bundy to go get 'em so often because, well, they were paying him $4 million, and people like seeing a return on their investment, but also because of flexibility. Or, rather, a lack of it. In a naturally conservative institution like baseball, hitting the eject button on a player is a nearly unalterable act. Without those tasty minor-league options, a franchise has to sneak a player by other teams, hoping that no one notices that a capable arm is now free for anyone to acquire. When that fails because the Diamondbacks need someone to throw slop for them, the team takes a vicious hit to their depth. So Bundy stays because he’s somewhat usable.
In that sense, Bundy is useful; every team unwillingly hands out innings to players they’d prefer to avoid starting—hopefully, Adam Wilk is enjoying life. It’s the nature of pitching. But Bundy also blocks others. Louie Varland remains in the minors because Bundy isn’t terrible; he certainly earned a few victories for the Twins, but is he so much better than Varland that the Twins should eschew the youngster in favor of the veteran?
This was the essential issue of the 2022 Twins; no one was truly horrifyingly bad, but instead existed in a mediocre haven, making it difficult for the team ever to cut bait. At least Shoemaker made it clear he was cooked. 
Wacha is probably not better than Varland; that’s the article. If you sign a pitcher with a good chance at being below-average—and without disrespect, Wacha fits that mold—you create fake depth; at least Varland can go to St. Paul if he starts pitching poorly. With Wacha, you just have to grin and bear it, only cutting bait once he reaches unforgivable status. Or, in Twins shorthand, if he “Shoemakers” it.
 
 

Last year, the Twins were 20.7 runs worse than an average team on the bases, according to FanGraphs. That was the second-worst mark in MLB. They stole (or even attempted to steal) fewer bases than any other team. They took the extra base on hits at a below-average rate, and they made outs on the bases at an above-average rate. 
That has been a pattern throughout the Rocco Baldelli era, too. The team will point out that the whole league is moving away from steals and aggressive baserunning, and that may be true, but the Twins still stand out like a sore hamstring. Since 2019, the Twins have stolen just 134 bases. The Red Sox have stolen the second-fewest in MLB, at 191. The gap between Minnesota and Boston is larger than the gap between Boston and the Yankees, who have stolen the 14th-fewest over that span. 
Baserunning is a nuanced art, and when a team does it poorly, the field staff always gets the heat. In this case, though, it’s pretty clear that the front office is driving the systemic failure. It’s a part of their broader strategy. There are good reasons underpinning that strategy, too. That said, the strategy sucks.
The two free agent signees most on the mind of Twins fans at the moment provide a perfect way to understand what the team is doing. Last winter, they surprised everyone by signing Carlos Correa, albeit on a short-term deal. Correa was and is a premium talent, with a long track record of brilliant play. There’s almost no weakness in his game–almost. 
Correa is a terrible baserunner. He’s actually quite fast, once he gets underway, but he’s so conservative on the bases (and so hesitant, after years of such overcautiousness) that he can’t avail himself of his speed most of the time. While an excellent player overall, he has hurt his teams by hitting into too many double plays and doing too little on the bases in each of the last two seasons.
Why is Correa so careful? The hiccup that triggered the final twist in his second tour of free agency illustrates it. He suffered a significant lower-leg injury running the bases in the minor leagues in 2014, and some reports suggest that the San Francisco Giants’ hangup in reading his physical exam traced all the way back to that injury. 
This is one huge reason for the broader trend away from emphasizing baserunning, and for the Twins’ philosophy of treading lightly. Everyone, and especially the Twins, now views the risk of injury as part of the break-even calculations required when deciding whether to attempt a steal, whether to try to score from first on a double, and even how to instruct players about their mentality on the bases. 
Just as importantly, though, the Twins have arrived at a conclusion similar to the one articulated at the beginning of Moneyball. They think speed is overpriced, and they view it as a secondary skill set. They would rather select players for their ability to authoritatively pull the ball in the air, for instance, than select them for speed or baserunning savvy, because most games are impacted more by what one does in the batter’s box than by what one does on the basepaths. 
That’s why the Twins, even if only fractionally, were more willing than other teams to overlook Joey Gallo’s falling Sprint Speed. Once a comfortably above-average runner, Gallo (whose pull power- and patience-centered approach at the plate fit the Twins’ philosophy like a batting glove) has lost a step over the last few years, and is now about as slow as his huge frame would suggest. He’s still a fine defender, thanks to good reads off the bat and a strong arm, but he’s a below-average runner in either corner outfield spot, and might not be viable in center field any longer. He’s tangibly slower than Max Kepler, whose role on the club he figures to take in 2023.
These things matter, because the Twins’ proclivity for accepting less speed is also why they’re perennially saddled with so many injuries, and why they often feel like a sclerotic, one-dimensional team. While it’s secondary in the degree to which it directly affects most games, speed is a primary indicator of a certain kind of athleticism. 
In baseball, there are two main categories of athleticism, and many players excel in one or the other, rather than both. One type is the explosive, rotational athlete. These are the guys who can throw 103 miles per hour, have excellent Bomba Rates, and generally have a knack for transferring massive energy from the ground, through themselves, and into the baseball. 
The Twins collect these guys. In their farm system, they train guys to be great in this sector of athleticism. They consider the batter-pitcher matchup, with its intensity and its potential for premeditation and tactical aggression, the center of the game, and they put their resources into being ready to win it as often as possible.
The other main type of baseball athleticism is the one people more often mean when they use the word. It’s not about unidirectional energy flow, but about proprioception and hand-eye coordination. It encompasses balance, looseness in the hips, the ability to make last-second adjustments, and comfort doing usual things at unusual angles. 
This is what allows a great hitter, when fooled, to flick the ball the other way for a double. It’s the extra dimension of movement that always seems to let Javier Baez creatively slide around a tag–and the anticipatory quickness that allows Baez to thwart would-be tag evaders when he’s in the field.
Straight-line speed actually belongs to the first category of athleticism, as much as the second. It’s not a coincidence that, as he’s worked out who he is as a player, Byron Buxton has become a lethal power hitter, adept at turning on the ball and driving it in the air. He uses much of the same extraordinary musculature and intuitive sense of leverage to generate both that power and his awesome speed, at full gait. 
Buxton, however, has become a mostly stagnant and ineffectual baserunner, because he hasn’t cultivated the other dimension of athleticism. He gets into trouble when trying to change speeds or direction suddenly. He gets hurt. While pure speed itself comes from the same place as power, speed utility—and the health benefits of being lithe and fast—comes from that second type of athleticism. Buxton, like virtually all of his teammates, is missing that.
The Twins are selecting baseball-specialized athletes too often, and training the guys already in their organization to focus too much on that area. They don’t want to pay for a skill that seems to make up so little of the game, and that helps them keep up with other clubs in the power department. 
The tradeoff leads to all kinds of problems, though, like having two guys with below-average range and quickness on the left side of their infield in the first year without defensive shifts. (Kyle Farmer and Jose Miranda each do what the Twins want hitters to do, but both are insufficient multidirectional athletes if they’re to be paired at their current positions.) 
It also leads to more injuries, because the players they’re acquiring and developing are stretching their bodies to their limits in short, violent bursts, and lack the capacity for the tiny adjustments that can avert disaster. That’s all on top of the most obvious problem, which is this: The Twins let runs go unscored because they simply don’t have guys who can put pressure on defenses and fully exploit opportunities.
 

Steve Cohen, the Mets owner, is stupid rich. He can afford to sign Carlos Correa as an afterthought.
All the other owners are also stupid rich. They could also afford to sign Carlos Correa as an afterthought. They opted out.
The Giants and Twins may end up being completely vindicated in exercising restraint. That plate in Correa’s leg may start malfunctioning like the one in Cousin Eddie’s head from Christmas Vacation. If he pees his pants rounding second because someone at Citi Field is microwaving salmon in the break room, the Mets can’t say they weren’t warned.
If Correa flames out, guess what? The Mets can still afford it. And they can afford to replace him with another generational talent at another astronomical price point.
This gets at the problem for the Twins, Giants, and everyone else, even the Pirates: They can all afford this, too. See above about being stupid rich. Their wealth is unimaginable. You really have no idea.
It’s not your money.
“We’ll lose (some number and a word that rhymes with Jillian) this season! We can't compete with New York!” Great. That’s a rounding error for them and a number they finessed to within an inch of straight up lying. If they want to impress me with real losses, invest in crypto.
If they decide that losing a fraction of their wealth on a professional sports team is not for them, the Phoenix Suns just sold for $4 billion. Buddy, there’s the door.
You don’t get points for not taking on risk. You don’t get games in hand for fiscal responsibility. You do get a reputation as a team that will do exactly this much to improve your roster, but not that much.
It’s not your money.
Every “small market” team is in a giant city with skyscrapers and bridges. The people who own that team own the skyscrapers and the bridges are named after the great-grandparent who got the money in the first place by inventing child labor or selling bayonets to a guy nicknamed “The God-Tyrant of the Eurasian Steppe” or something.
“The owners didn’t become rich by wasting money.” No, they became rich by being born into obscene wealth. Glad we cleared this up.
“The Pohlads are cheap” is inaccurate. “Most of the owners are content with the status quo” is accurate. The problem is, Steve Cohen is making the status quo look cheap. So I may have to revisit that “inaccurate” thing.
It’s not your money. It really, really isn’t.
The concessions at Target Field will be expensive regardless of who they sign this winter. Let’s say they decide to say "Bleep it" and start the rebuild now. You will still spend John Bonnes’ weekly craft beer budget on a hot dog and popcorn in 2023.
None of this is Carlos Correa’s fault. Anyone mad at him for taking the best deal (twice) instead of staying in Minnesota is a tiny baby. Yes, our lakes and amenities are nice, but I assure you that San Francisco and New York have water and restaurants too.
In conclusion, they should probably trade for some pitching.