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Even before the Twins decided to spend $11 million on one season of Joey Gallo, there was reasonable expectation that Max Kepler’s days with Minnesota may be done. He is basically a known commodity at this point in his career, and while that’s not necessarily a bad thing, the front office likely isn’t worried about being burned by future development.
In 2019, when Rocco Baldelli’s club went Bomba Squad on the season, Kepler posted a career year. His 123 OPS+ was easily a high water mark, and well above the 101 OPS+ he owns as a current career average. He had blasted 20 home runs just once previously during a season in his career, and he nearly doubled that with 36 in 2019.
Kepler’s bugaboo offensively over the course of his career has been the way in which he contacts the ball. He makes solid contact and drives the ball, but his launch angle and swing path routinely generate the least desirable outcome. He gets very little lift on the baseball, and so even with the banning of the shift, he doesn’t stand to benefit a substantial amount. Generating a greater slugging percentage would require a change in approach, and Kepler has previously stated a desire to drive the ball towards the ground.
Obviously his offensive profile limits his overall value, but defensively he’s nothing short of a Gold Glove caliber defender. Despite never having won the award, he fares well by both Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved standards. He’s somewhat stretched in centerfield, at least at Target Field, but he’s exceptional as a corner outfielder. In and of itself, that should have value.
When considering trading Kepler, Minnesota is likely doing so to create room and opportunity. In line to make just $8.5 million in 2023 however, dumping him for nothing is probably not a desired path to take. In seeing how the Arizona Diamondbacks benefitted from moving talented outfielder Daulton Varsho, there’s reason to believe Kepler’s return may be misstated.
Yes, Varsho is five years younger than Kepler and has already posted a better fWAR than the Twins outfielder ever has, but their game is not all that separate. Results are truly what divides the two, but Kepler has equal or better inputs at the plate. Defensively, Varsho is an exceptional outfielder while also having the ability to catch, but as stated Kepler is no slouch with his glove either.
The New York Yankees have been tied to the Twins as a potential trade partner for Kepler, and that has made sense from the time it was reported they wouldn’t go to great lengths for Andrew Benintendi. Gallo didn’t work for Aaron Boone’s club last year, and while Aaron Judge returns, the outfield remains largely in flux. Aaron Hicks is a consistent injury concern, and Giancarlo Stanton isn’t an ideal defender. Harrison Bader is a great defensive talent, but has never shown a consistent offensive ability. There’s certainly a need that could be filled. Even if it isn’t the Yankees, reports have suggested Minnesota will have no shortage of suitors when it comes to Kepler. That doesn’t mean the return is necessarily going to be earth-shattering. Likely, the front office is targeting prospects in return for their current starter. What Kepler’s desirability could do though, is create an opportunity for the Twins to choose the best package from any number of teams that come calling.
Don’t expect Minnesota to net a top 10 prospect as the Diamondbacks did in Gabriel Moreno, but moving Kepler certainly isn’t just a way to clear salary or open a position. It may have been fair to suggest that going into the offseason, but the right fielder’s market doesn’t seem to be shaping up that way.

Minnesota saw multiple prospects break out last season, including Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, and Simeon Woods Richardson. Based on those performances, all three players are expected to impact the big-league roster in 2023. Even with these players, the Twins' farm system ranks in the middle of the pack compared to other organizations. Minnesota's farm system can continue to improve if these three players prove something in 2023.

Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF
Current Twins Daily Prospect Ranking: 3
Rodriguez needs to prove that his shortened 2022 campaign was legitimate. Last season, he hit .272/.493/.552 (1.044) with five doubles, three triples, and nine home runs in 47 games. As a 19-year-old, he was over two years younger than the average age of the competition in his league. Few Twins prospects have power like Rodriguez, and his numbers are expected to improve as he continues to improve and add to his frame. 

National prospects rankings have started to take notice of Rodriguez, who has all the tools to be considered one of baseball's best prospects. To do that, he must compile strong numbers as he moves up the organizational ladder. He has the chance to be a superstar player, but he has a long way to go before reaching Target Field. 

Connor Prielipp, SP
Current Twins Daily Prospect Ranking: 4
An argument can be made that Prielipp is facing one of the most crucial development seasons in recent Twins history. He needs to prove he can be a top of the rotation starter after only pitching in seven college games since the start of 2020. The Twins will likely take it slow with Prielipp when he makes his professional debut, but the left-handed starter has the potential to be an ace. 

Prielipp will likely get most of his innings in Fort Myers, where he will be closer to the team's training facilities. His performance may dictate a second-half promotion, but there is no rush to get him to the big leagues. For Prielipp, the 2023 season is about proving he is healthy and has the potential to be Minnesota's best starting pitching prospect in quite some time. No pressure, kid. 

Austin Martin, SS/CF
Current Twins Daily Prospect Ranking: 6
Entering last season, Twins Daily ranked Austin Martin as the Twins' top prospect. From there, things couldn't have gone much worse for one of the key pieces from the Jose Berrios trade. In 92 games, he hit .241/.368/.317 (.685) with 19 extra-base hits and a 55-to-49 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Luckily, he ended the season on a high note and carried that performance into the Arizona Fall League, where he posted a .936 OPS. Over the last two seasons, he has played at Double-A, so expectations are for him to make his Triple-A debut in 2023. Can he prove that he is still one of Minnesota's top prospects? 

It's easy to look at the Twins' top prospects and have hope for the future. Minnesota's farm system will be sitting in a much better place if these three players take the next step in 2023.
What can these three prove next season? What other prospects have something to prove? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
 

All three of these players made their debuts in 2021 after taking different routes to the big-league level. Now entering their sophomore seasons, will they be able to avoid a slump? 

Gilberto Celestino, CF
Twins fans will remember Celestino floundering during his big-league debut last season, but that is only part of his 2021 campaign. Injuries forced the Twins to call him up with no experience above the Double-A level, and this was on the heels of a non-existent 2020 minor-league season. Transitioning to the big-league level can be challenging, but Celestino is a better player than his debut performance. 

After his struggles at the MLB level, he settled in nicely for the Saints and hit .290/.384/.443 (.827) while playing above-average defense in center. The chances are that Byron Buxton will be injured in 2022. When that happens, Celestino can rely on his success in the high minors to start transitioning that success to the big-league level. He has the tools to settle into an above-average fourth outfielder role with the Twins. 
Ben Rortvedt, C
Rortvedt made his MLB debut last season after Minnesota's two-catcher rotation was unsuccessful. Entering 2022, the Twins have the same three catchers on the roster, so what has changed? Mitch Garver and Ryan Jeffers are penciled in to be the starters, but Rortvedt has some solid defensive skills that make him a more than capable backup. Scouting reports praise his work behind the plate and his ability to manage the running game. 

If one of the primary catchers is hurt, he is more than capable of handling the backup duties. His hit tool will never make him an everyday catcher, but he has some pop in his bat when he makes contact. At Triple-A, he hit .254/.324/.426 (.750) with 11 extra-base hits in 34 games. There's still a chance the Twins trade one of their catchers for starting pitching, and then Rortvedt takes on an even more critical role. 
Nick Gordon, UTL
Twins fans know Gordon's name well because he was a first-round draft pick and considered a top prospect for multiple seasons. In 2021, he made his big-league debut at age-25 and hit .240/.292/.355 (.647) in 200 at-bats. Gordon was great in June. He got on base one-third of the time and posted a .765 OPS. Fans wanted to see more of Gordon, especially at the club's end of a terrible season.

The Twins had little desire to play him at shortstop, his defensive position for his entire pro career. Instead, Minnesota used him at all three outfield positions and second base. Gordon's future value is tied to his ability to play multiple defensive positions while finding a way to get on base regularly. Other Twins prospects have developed power later in their career, but Gordon's ceiling seems more likely to be limited to a utility role. 
Which player do you think has the most significant impact on the 2022 Twins? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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Whenever a team signs a star in their prime, the pressure automatically mounts. Not just the stress of success, but the heat on how the team will build around that star. Will the Angels ever give Mike Trout enough pitching to win? Can the Phillies build enough strength around Bryce Harper? 
There’s a constant clock tick, tick, ticking. Trout, 30, has nine years remaining on his deal. How many more years can the Angels expect healthy, MVP-level production? Harper, 29, just won MVP for a Philadelphia team that missed the playoffs once again. 
$300+ million contracts considerably impact spending, even for teams like the Phillies, Angels, and Yankees. For one, that’s a lot of money on the books for a long time. Additionally, teams must supplement the stars they sign with other All-Star level players. 
For the Twins, a club that just handed out the second-largest contract in team history, the situation is the same. On a per-game basis, Byron Buxton is in the same tier as his $300 million counterparts. The only thing keeping him from that status is his injury history. 
Now that Minnesota decided Buxton is the building block, the front office must work to avoid wasting his prime. Buxton, 27, will never combine his elite speed and power more than now. In other words, this is likely the best version of Buxton we’ll ever see. 
Consider this scenario. The Twins continue to sit around in free agency and on the trade market and fail to muster enough pitching to compete in 2022. Let’s say, on top of that, Buxton plays 140 games and wins MVP. This situation is plausible. While Buxton is one of the most impactful players in MLB, he is only one player. See Harper, Bryce and Trout, Mike. 
By signing this deal, Buxton commits to a team coming off a last-place finish with an unknown road ahead. If he’s healthy, a gamble the Twins have already decided to make; they have to make it matter. Here’s how they can:
1. SIGN CARLOS RODÓN
Rumored to be involved in his sweepstakes, the Twins have an opportunity to add an ace for a cheaper-than-usual price tag. Rodón’s injury history is enough to scare off even the riskiest of teams. He barely got through the 2021 season with dwindling velocity and more arm problems. The healthy version of Rodón was the best pitcher in the league, posting a 2.37 ERA and 35% strikeout rate in 132 2/3 innings. He’s the exact type of gamble a team like the Twins should make. 
2. TRADE FOR CHRIS BASSITT
Bassitt has the American League’s lowest ERA over the last two seasons (min. 200 innings) and is reportedly available. He works with a deep repertoire of pitches with clear room for improvement. He’d immediately join Rodón as a duo rivaling Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito as the best in the division.
3. RE-SIGN MICHAEL PINEDA
Pineda had some hiccups over his three years with the Twins, but he was rock-solid and often gave them a chance to win. Pineda’s 3.80 ERA since 2019 is enough to run back for more. A top three of Rodón, Bassitt, and Pineda would enter the season as one of the best the Twins have ever had. (at least since the season they had Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios and Michael Pineda atop their rotation)
What do you think? Does the Byron Buxton extension put more pressure on 2022? Do you like these moves? Comment below!
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