kab21

It's pretty clear that you haven't followed hardly any prospects from the minors to the majors. BA usually drops and it usually drops a lot. Throwing out a projection that is 4 pts higher than his best season ever is WAY over optimistic. Why is Sano's scouting report at all relevant to Hicks? Sano has struggled to hit for average for one season and he actually is a special prospect. Hicks has struggled to hit for average for 3.5 seasons and that is a relevant sample size. At the very least do you have a scouting report that suggests that Hicks will hit for average? Here are career MiLB and MLB BA's of most of the Twins that have succeeded at the MLB level in the last decade. I hope I don't need to tell you what the trend is. Mauer MiLB BA = .330 and MLB BA = .323 Kubel .320 - .268 Cuddyer .291 - .271 Morneau .311 - .280 Span .286 - .284 Hunter .270 - .277 - the only player whose average went up Koskie .288 - .275 Bartlett .299 - .271 Jones .295 - .277 Lecroy .290 - .260 Ortiz .310 - .285 Guzman .278 - .271 Hicks career MiLB .271 Do you have any idea how much of a statistical outlier it would be for Hicks to hit .290 in the majors? Like I said before .260's is what Hicks will likely hit and it could be much worse based on how much BA typically drops for MLB hitters.

.290 isn't a reach despite the FACT that he has NEVER hit .290 in full season ball? Your projections are nothing more than looking at a players ultimate upside and then adding some to it. The only time that Hicks has posted halfway decent BA's were in seasons where he had high BAPIP's. Typically those high BAPIP's go away in the majors due to better defenders and field conditions. Hicks is more likely a .260's hitter since BA's in the majors are typically lower than the minors. This year I'm just hoping he hits .250 and I'm not very optimistic.

I think you just make stuff up when you do your projections. Hicks is a .271 career hitter with 30 HR's in 3.5 full season ball seasons.

I don't understand why there is preference that the Twins go into complete firesale mode. The players in question still have trade value and I think they will be traded during the season. One critical step in rebuilding is to open up starting spots for prospects. The Twins did exactly that with their two trades this winter. Perhaps you could make a case that they also needed to open up a space this winter for Arcia but that would also require the Twins to start 3 prospects in the OF with very little depth if one of them stumbles. As of right now there aren't any prospects that are truly blocked. Someone might say Gibson but as a realist there is no way that the Twins rotation survives to July w/o losing one pitcher due to ineffectiveness or injury. The same is true for Arcia. I also find any criticism of the Indians moves overblown. Which good prospects are blocked by Swisher or Bourn? The Indians managed to add a couple of good players at positions where they were extremely weak MLB and MiLB. it's likely that these moves can result in a future trade to add more young talent to the Indians and these players only cost money. At the end of the day they added talent to org and aren't blocking decent prospects. Overall I think the Twins view 2013 as a wait season. they didn't add anything significant in FA or even attempt to and they continued to stockpile prospects. I don't think the Twins will do a burn it to the ground rebuild and I don't think they should but I think we'll continue to see a veteran traded here and there.

Can't see much from the video but the ball gets in there quick.

One of my favorite all time Twins and he just went on record for wanting tougher PED penalties.

I was CF for my HS and legion team. A lot of swing and miss but I could run down any ball in the OF.

I would make the trade but it's not going to happen. Boston has basically nothing at SS and Bogaerts has been considered untouchable by them. I'm not sure criticizing the Twins for lack of Curacao players is worthwhile. In the last 5 years the Twins practically completely reversed their int'l approach and are actually spending significant money now. They also are heavily scouting countries that have very little MLB presence.

I think it's okay to worry about this issue in 2020 or 2021... The pitching is abysmal now and I don't think you pass on a guy with his skills unless an equally good prospect also drops to #4. It will be interesting to see how the next couple of months shake out. Right now the draft is about 3 very good college pitchers and a few toolsy OF'ers. At this point the pitchers have to be at the very top of the list but the Twins pick #4. It would be interesting to know if the new CBA did away with inserting a first season MLB call up similar to Chris Sale a few years ago. As far as I know it didn't. I know they got rid of MLB contracts stretching the bonus over a number of seasons but I'm unsure if a mandatory call up was also eliminated. It's one area that agents can still game the system or at least even the field against GMs gaming service time.

Arcia will get his chance even if Willy is healthy.

He's just trying to be one of my new favorites isn't he?

Actually it's still the opposite. People just need to stop acting like prospects all succeed. If you adjust your expectations as the analysis shows the future Twins are still in good shape but there could be holes pretty much anywhere to fill. As fun as it is to write in a 2015 lineup with every prospect succeeding is a little too optimistic. It also shows that prospects are a great currency to trade when you want to go for it.

I think Appel likely has the floor of a big league starter which is a pretty good floor of someone that hasn't played any professional ball. He's definitely good but to say anyone (leaving out the Strasburg level prospects) have a floor of a #3 starter is silly. It's like worrying about where the Twins are going to play Hicks, Arcia, Buxton, Kepler and possibly Sano/Rosario in the future. This board seems to be overrun with the optimism that almost all prospects work out. Great draft picks and prospects have a habit of finding ways to fail. It happens and Appel is no different imo,

Appel is not at worst a #3. I like him and he absolutely deserves to be picked in the top 4 at this point but if was as good as you say he would be the #1 overall pick in either draft and he would have gotten paid.

Are you scared they might break an NRI? Perhaps it's not in Contreras best interests though.

Probably #2's with high floors. If the draft featured 3 collegiate future aces then it wouldn't be considered a fairly weak draft. As of right now they are probably somewhere in the neighborhood of Gausman, Appel and Zimmer last year. And certainly well below Cole, Hultzman, Bauer and Bundy (a HS'er), the top 4 picks from 2011. that draft was ridiculously good.

tbh - If I'm ranking systems I don't really care if every prospect plays the same position. I care about talent and the Twins have a lot. #2 is still a little high because I'm a little more cautious than KLaw with lower level prospects though.

A) I think people greatly overestimate how strong the Twins bullpen is. One injury, disappointment or trade could result in a 2011 repeat. I'll take Contreras on an NRI. He was sneaky good when he moved to the bullpen. C) I'm loving that this Lara obsession hasn't subsided yet. I can't wait for weekly (daily?) updates in spring training.

At this point if Manaea and Stanek are off the board then you take Appel if he's there. The worst case is getting the 2014 #5 pick in what could be a better draft. but who knows what players could emerge during the spring HS and college seasons.

Most think that Nate Roberts is a nice potential 4th OF'er. it is a little frustrating that he hasn't been promoted at least one more level. Kepler should absolutely stay in the OF until he gets close to the majors and 1B is the only place with an opening. I wouldn't be against having him play 15-20 games of 1B each year though. Moving IF to OF is a relatively easy transition. Moving from OF to IF (even 1B) is not as easy as some make it sound.

Is Guerra incapable of pitching with runners on base? He's had very good K:BB ratios the last two seasons but he has a 5 ERA in that time. At this point I think he looks like a guy that just underperforms his peripherals but I'll still give him a chance. I have always been interested to see where his velocity bumped up to in the bullpen. I remember that he came from the Mets with a probably exaggerated low to mid 90's FB but after the Twins tinkering and maybe an injury he was throwing in the mid to upper 80's.

I get frustrated whenever I see an article like this and people immediately think that the article says Sano has a zero chance at staying at 3B. This article is focused on the reality of whether or not he realistically will stick at 3B. I see a kid that is already as big as the biggest 3Bman in the league although a few weights are underreported. I expect him to grow and it's pretty likely that he's 6'5" and 270 by age 25. Realistically I think the odds are getting pretty low that he will stick at 3B regardless of how athletic he is or "how much he wants it" (quote from the other thread). I was at 50/50 earlier in the offseason but I think I'll put his odds at <25% that he sticks at 3B past age 25. What odds do you give him? Are you willing to slow his promotion to the majors by 1-2 yrs so his defense is simply bad at the MLB level? The Royals and Nats faced this issue with Myers and harper at catcher and both chose to move them to the OF. 2013 will definitely be spent at 3B to see how well his defensive tools (they are very good) translate to actual defense. The big decision will come next offseason. If he can stay at 3B if would be awesome for the Twins but Sano could be awesome at any position.

I'm in the same position with Arrieta, Wood and Bass.

The ratio of baseball games that are on TV here. MLB - 2x: Taiwan league - 1x: Japanese - 0x: Korean - 0x Taiwanese baseball isn't very good at all. They're skinny and I really don't bother watching tbh.

Just be a Twins fan and then casually cheer for whichever team interests you at the moment. Being a baseball fan doesn't mean that you can only have one favorite team or that you have to live close to your favorite team. I live in Taiwan as a comparison.