Thrylos

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
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The Twins announced that they have added LHP Taylor Rogers, RHP JT Chargois, OF Adam Brett Walker, LHP Randy Rosario, RHP Yorman Landa, LHP Pat Dean, and LHP Mason Melotakis to their 40-man roster. This leaves 41 players unprotected.
Here is a list of each of the unprotected players along with an risk analysis with the possibility that each player will get selected by another team:
 
RHP Jose Abreu
Age: 23
Height: 5' 11"
Weight: 170 lb
Highest Level: Rookie/Elizabethton
Acquired: Dominican Free Agent
2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 23th in 2014
Last season: 17 G, 26.2 IP, 6.8 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 3.71 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 1.39 WHIP, .272 BABIP
Summary: Very raw player with control and command issues, but extremely tantalizing fastball with a lot of movement. Secondary pitches are work in progress and has declined last season after missing 2014 with Tommy John surgery. Interesting to see how he will bounce back. Highly Unlikely to be taken in the draft
Risk %: 5%
 
 
RHP Jason Adam
Age: 24
Height: 6' 4"
Weight: 225 lb
Highest Level: AAA
Acquired: Traded from the Kansas for Josh Willingham in 2014
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season: Did not play/recovering from surgery 2014 AAA/AA: 29 G, 19 GS, 120.1 IP, 7.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 4.71 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, .345 BABIP
Summary: Was the Royals' 9th prospect according to Baseball America when traded. Mid 90s plus fastball complemented with an above average curve and works in progress slider and changeup. Starter potential. Unlikely to be taken in the draft because of the risk of the postsurgery unknown, but definitely has upside
Risk %: 30%
 
RHP Nick Anderson
Age: 25
Height: 6' 5"
Weight: 195 lb
Highest Level: A
Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent from Independent Leagues in 2015
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A): 9 G, 0 GS, 12 IP, 9 K/9, 0 BB/9, 0.75 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 0.83 WHIP, .1945 BABIP
Summary: Minnesotan. Recent Independent League signing. 97 mph Fastball, but 2 years too old for the league and not too great secondary stuff. Definitely a project. Was there for the taking by any team and was not. Unlikely that he would be taken in the draft, unless someone sees him as a MLB-level project
Risk %: 15%
 
RHP Luke Bard
Age: 25
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 195 lb
Highest Level: A+
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round (42 overall) in 2012
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A): 28 G, 0 GS, 52.1 IP, 8.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 2.41 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, .303 BABIP
Summary: Once (2012) the Twins' 10th best prospect according to Baseball America. One of the many relievers the Twins drafted in high rounds with the hope to turn into starters and ended up having Tommy John surgery. Bard was out all 2014 recoving. But has regressed in every level previously. Last season he was adequate at A ball, but 2 years older than the average player there. So far a dissapointment, and not sure that there will be any takers.
Risk %: 10%
 
 
RHP DJ Baxendale
Age: 24
Height: 6' 2"
Weight: 190 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 10th round in 2012
2015 Prospect Rank: NR; highest: 15th in 2014 offseason.
Last season (AA) : 23 G, 21 GS, 118.1 IP, 7 K/9, 3 BB/9, 3.80 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, .317 BABIP
Summary: Baxendale is all about Command and Control. If that works, he is great, if it does not, he is not. Repeated AA this season at an age a bit younger than average. His fastball has been hittable by more advanced hitters, and this has been his main problem. Cannot make it as a junk ball righty. Lots of potential there, and has some history as a reliever, but I don't think that it is enough for anyone to spend a 25 man roster spot on him.
Risk %: 30%
 
 
RHP Omar Bencomo
Age: 26
Height: 6' 1"
Weight: 170 lb
Highest Level: A+
Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent from Independent Leagues in 2015
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A+) : 3 G, 3 GS, 18 IP, 2.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.50 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 0.90 WHIP, .196 BABIP
Summary: Another one of the Twins' Independent League signings. Started 3 games at a 26 year old at Fort Myers. Organizational depth and more of a candidate for release than a risk to be drafted
Risk %: 5%
 
OF Edgar Corcino
Age: 23
Height: 6' 1"
Weight: 210 lb
Highest Level: A
Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent from Independent Leagues in 2014
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A) : .273/.340/.376; 373 PA, 4 HR, 9 SB, 34 BB, 91 K.
Summary: Yet another one of the Twins' Independent League signings. Started 63 games as a RF and 17 as a CF for Cedar Rapids. Not a prospect and not MLB-ready
Risk %: 15%
 
 
RHP Sam Gibbons
Age: 21
Height: 6' 4"
Weight: 190 lb
Highest Level: A
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Australia in 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A) : 15 G, 15 GS, 90.1 IP, 6.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 2.89 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 1.185 WHIP, .196 BABIP
Summary: Gibbons has been improving each season and jumping a level a season. High A ready, but not MLB-ready. Little risk of being taken in the MLB portion of the draft, might want to protect him in the minor league portion of the draft.
Risk %: 25%
 
RHP Miguel Gonzalez
Age: 21
Height: 6' 1"
Weight: 180 lb
Highest Level: Rookie (GCL)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Dominican Republic in 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (Rookie/GCL) : 15 G, 3 GS, 39.2 IP, 9.1 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 1.59 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 0.981 WHIP, .271 BABIP
Summary: Third time is the charm, since threepeating the GCL, Gonzalez have found himself, by improving his mechanics and control. Still very young. Little risk of being taken in the MLB portion of the draft, might want to protect him in the minor league portion of the draft.
Risk %: 15%
 
 
IF Niko Goodrum
Age: 23
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 167 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 2nd round of 2010
2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 27th in 2014
Last season (AA) : .244/.332/.392; 238 PA, 5 HR, 18 SB, 28 BB, 51 K.
Summary: Goodrum is still young, but the expectations for the former second round draft pick have been higher than his performance so far. Declining performance at 3B, where he switch from SS, but adding CF to his repertoir and seeing more (and better defensively) games at SS in 2015. Someone might pick him up as a utility player/PR, but he is not ready to perform with his bat.
Risk %: 35%
 
1B Bryan Haar
Age: 25
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 215 lb
Highest Level: A+
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 34th round of 2012
2015 Prospect Rank: NR.
Last season (A+) : .249/.317/.323; 284 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, 21 BB, 61 K.
Summary: Organizational depth at this point, and as a 25 year old in high A ball, he is more of a candidate to be cut than drafted.
Risk %: 5%
 
OF Travis Harrison
Age: 23
Height: 6' 1"
Weight: 215 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round (50th overall) of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: 14th
Last season (AA) : .240/.363/.356; 479 PA, 5 HR, 3 SB, 65 BB, 102 K.
Summary: Harrison has been taken a step up in level every year in his professional career, but also has been taking a step back in performance. Last season was his worst so far as a pro. Still more than 2 years young in AA, he is in the top prospect conversation and he might be a season or two away from a breakthrough; however, he is not major league ready at this point and I cannot see someone drafting him, but the potential is there.
Risk %: 40%
 
 
1B DJ Hicks
Age: 25
Height: 6' 5"
Weight: 245 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 17th round of 2012
2015 Prospect Rank:NR, 2014: 24th
Last season (AA) : .227/.320/.351; 259 PA, 6 HR, 1 SB, 32 BB, 66 K.
Summary: Hicks' strongest tool is his power, and he has seen a drastic decline as he has been climbing minor league levels, something that he did with regularity. Bothered with injuries this season. It is unlikely that he will be drafted, he needs another good year to be MLB-ready.
Risk %: 25%
 
LHP David Hurlbut
Age: 25
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 221 lb
Highest Level: AAA (one game)
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 28th round of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A+/AA/AAA) : 20 G, 19 GS, 119 IP, 5.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.78 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 1.333 WHIP, .311 BABIP
Summary: Hurlbut had a decent AA season, he is left-handed and a pitch to contact guy. Someone might think that converting him to a reliever might improve his numbers. As with any lefty, there are always some possibilities that someone will pull the trigger, but there are better options out there.
Risk %: 45%
 
RHP Cole Johnson
Age: 27
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 200 lb
Highest Level: AAA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 44th round of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A+/AA/AAA) : 35 G, 0 GS, 52 IP, 8.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 3.18 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.404 WHIP, .331 BABIP
Summary: Cole Johnson is MLB-ready. Heavy singer sitting at 89-92, good slider. Command of his fastball is crucial. Tale of 2 places season, better at AA than AAA. Might be due to the fact of game calling by catchers at AAA as well. Can be in a major league pen right now.
Risk %: 70%
 
RHP Zack Jones
Age: 24
Height: 6' 1"
Weight: 185 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 4th round of 2012
2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 2014: 19th
Last season (A+/AA) :45 G, 0 GS, 51.2 IP, 11.8 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, 4.53 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 1.277 WHIP, .288 BABIP
Summary: Zach Jones is a fireballer with a major league 99 mph fastball, but with iffy control due to his mechanics (which have been the source of nagging injuries,) and an average slider that sometimes is much better than average, but it is an inconsistent pitch. Much better performance at Fort Myers than at Chatanooga. Still can strike people out and non contenders with pitching coaches who would love a challenge might wink at that heater.
Risk %: 75%
 
RHP Felix Jorge
Age: 21
Height: 6' 2"
Weight: 170 lb
Highest Level: A
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Dominican Republic
2015 Prospect Rank: 29th
Last season (A) :23 G, 22 GS, 142 IP, 7.2 K/9, 2 BB/9, 2.79 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 1.056 WHIP, .267 BABIP
Summary: Jorge has 4 pitches that can be plus at different times. He just has not put it all together. Second time at Cedar Rapids (still at an age younger than league average) was better. Fastball used to live around 95 earlier in his career, but endurance had been an issue. This kid has a lot of potential. He is not major league ready by any means, but the Twins are betting nobody pulls a Santana on them. However someone might.
Risk %: 50%
 
OF Marcus Knecht
Age: 25
Height: 6' 1"
Weight: 200 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Signed as a Minor League free agent in 2015
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (A+/AA) : .221/.320/.310; 465 PA, 2 HR, 15 SB, 51 BB, 103 K.
Summary: The definition of organization depth. Not sure why the Twins re-signed him. Cannot see a team taking a chance for any reason
Risk %: 2%
 
LHP Brett Lee
Age: 25
Height: 6' 4"
Weight: 206 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 10th round of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (A+/A) :22 G, 22 GS, 134 IP, 4.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 3.16 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 1.239 WHIP, .277 BABIP
Summary: Even though Lee posted before average numbers, his stuff is pretty average, other than pitching to contact, which is his bread and butter. Very low strikeout and walk numbers, so his success (or lack of) would have to depend on his ability to induce ground balls. And he is not ready for the majors at this point. But he is a living and breathing lefty. On the other hand, there are better option for those as well...
Risk %: 30%
 
RHP Kuo-Hua Lo
Age: 22
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 195lb
Highest Level: Rookie (Elizabethton)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Taiwan
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (Rookie) :19 G, 0 GS, 31.1 IP, 12.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.44 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 0.734 WHIP, .213 BABIP
Summary: Lo repeated the Appalachian League in his fourth season with the Twins and had remarkable success closing games. However he is 2 years older than the league average player and has faced players who grabbed a wooden bad for the first time in their lives. Might get himself into prospect conversations, but he is not close to being Major League ready
Risk %: 10%
 
C Joe Maloney
Age: 25
Height: 6' 2"
Weight: 190 lb
Highest Level: A+ (in 2013)
Acquired: Signed as an Independent League free agent this off-season
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (IL) : .337/.432/.559; 433 PA, 14 HR, 18 SB, 57 BB, 106 K.
Summary: Intriguing IL numbers last season, so the Twins took a chance on him. More about him here. Not the kind of player you draft on Rule 5 draft.
Risk %: 5%
 
IF Aderlin Mejia
Age: 23
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 170lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent for the Dominican Republic
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (A+/AA) : .231/.313/.285; 305 PA, 1 HR, 7 SB, 34 BB, 37 K.
Summary: Had some flashes in the past, but last season was his fourth season that he spent at least some part at Fort Myers. He is a fan favorite there, but a utility player. More of a release than a draft candidate.
Risk %: 5%
 
SS Heiker Meneses
Age: 24
Height: 5'9"
Weight: 200lb
Highest Level: AAA (2014)
Acquired: Signed as a Minor League Free Agent in 2015
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (AA) : .259/.317/.300; 386 PA, 0 HR, 15 SB, 24 BB, 72 K.
Summary: Re-signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent again this off-season. More about him here. Definitely there is some intrigue and potential, but not enough to get drafted
Risk %: 25%
 
2B Levi Michael
Age: 24
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 180lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round (30th overall) of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: 22nd
Last season (AA) : .267/.369/.434; 264 PA, 5 HR, 18 SB, 31 BB, 53 K.
Summary: Never played below high A, was over-slotted and over-assigned when drafted. But he got better each and every season. Better than average defender after his move to second base, his challenge has been staying healthy. However second basement with .804 OPS in AA and excellent judgement of the strike zone do not grow on trees. The exact kind of player a team (especially in the National League) would not mind spending its last roster spot over.
Risk %: 75%
 
RHP Alex Muren
Age: 24
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 200 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 12th round of 2012
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (A+/AA) :44 G, 0 GS, 71.1 IP, 6.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 3.53 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 1.206 WHIP, .273 BABIP
Summary: Muren is organizational depth at this point. He does have his moments but are not enough for someone to draft him.
Risk %: 10%
 
C Carlos Paulino
Age: 26
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 175lb
Highest Level: AAA
Acquired: Singed as a Minor League Free Agent in 2015
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (AA/AAA) : .262/.328/.337; 193 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, 17 BB, 15 K.
Summary: Re-signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent again this off-season. Despite being the Twins' de facto number 3 in depth catcher as of today, he does not fit the profile of someone who will be taken in the Rule 5 draft.
Risk %: 25%
 
RHP Greg Peavey
Age: 27
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 185lb
Highest Level: AAA
Acquired: Selected from the Mets in the Minor League portion of the Rule 5 draft in 2014
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (AAA/AA) :27 G, 27 GS, 147 IP, 5.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 5.02 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 1.354 WHIP, .287 BABIP
Summary: Peavey is a pitch to contact control artist who can be really good on a good day and really bad on a bad day. And he had more bad days than good last season. Hard to see him drafted, but it is not impossible. Not unlike the starters that the Twins have drafted in the rule 5 draft this decade
Risk %: 40%
 
C Michael Quesada
Age: 25
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 205lb
Highest Level: A+
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 24th Round of 2010
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (A+) : .151/.239/.198; 240 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, 21 BB, 73 K.
Summary: Quesada had an abysmal season at Fort Myers at an age 2.5 years older than League average. Has been digressing every season; add a suspension because of drug use and it is a wonder he still is in the Twins' organization. Will not get drafted, unless something freezes over.
Risk %: 1%
 
RHP Dereck Rodriguez
Age: 24
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 180lb
Highest Level: A+
Acquired: Drafted in the 6th round of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (Rk/A/A+) :15 G, 14 GS, 75.1 IP, 7.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.35 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 1.235 WHIP, .306 BABIP
Summary: The son of Pudge was drafted as an outfielder and now is being converted into a pitcher. Played mostly Rookie ball at Elizabethton with 2 games with the Miracle and 1 with the Lookouts. He is a project; a project that looks good, but not MLB-ready by any means.
Risk %: 20%
 
C Jairo Rodriguez
Age: 27
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 180 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Signed by the Twins as an International Amateur Free Agent from Venezuela
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (AA) : .221/.284/.244; 96 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, 8 BB, 15 K.
Summary: Has been in the Twins' organization for 9 season and was re-signed again this off-season, for his 10th, after a pretty bad performance at Chattanooga. They like him for some reason, but his is a performance that only a parent team would like...
Risk %: 2%
 
1B Reynaldo Rodriguez
 
 
 
Age: 29
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 200 lb
Highest Level: AAA
Acquired: Signed by the Twins as a minor league Free Agent in 2013
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (AAA) : .255/.307/.446; 551 PA, 16 HR, 13 SB, 39 BB, 82 K.
Summary: Re-signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent again this off-season. A little older than the traditional rule 5 picks, his skills translate well in the majors and could be picked by a team in need of RH bats at the 1B/OF/PH/DH positions.
Risk %: 55%
 
LHP Dan Runzler
Age: 30
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 210lb
Highest Level: MLB (2012)
Acquired: Signed this off-season as a minor league free agent
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (AAA) :39 G, 0 GS, 37.2 IP, 9.6 K/9, 6.7 BB/9, 5.26 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 2.018 WHIP, .285 BABIP
Summary: You can read a lot about Runzler here. A very intriguing situation and the only thing that makes me think that he might not get selected is that if a team wanted to give him a 40-man position, they could have done it. However, things change in a month.
Risk %: 45%
 
 
RHP Tim Shibuya
Age: 26
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 190lb
Highest Level: AAA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 23rd round of the 2011 draft
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (A+/AA/AAA) :33 G, 4 GS, 63 IP, 5.3 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 3.57 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 1.222 WHIP, .295 BABIP
Summary: Shibuya, despite his impeccable control is organizational depth at this point. Hard to see any takers
Risk %: 25%
 
RHP Matt Summers
Age: 26
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 205lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 4th round of the 2011 draft
2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
Last season (A+/AA) :26 G, 1 GS, 44.2 IP, 6.0 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 3.63 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 1.187 WHIP, .266 BABIP
Summary: Pretty much the same that was said about Shibuya. However, Summers was a higher round pick in the same draft and did not go that far.
Risk %: 25%
 
 
RHP Todd Van Steensel
Age: 24
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 190 lb
Highest Level: A+
Acquired: Signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent in 2014 (previously pitching for them for 2011)
2015 Prospect Rank: 34
Last season (A+/AA) :46 G, 0 GS, 66 IP, 11 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 2.32 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 1.288 WHIP, .310 BABIP
Summary: In his first full season as one of the Miracle closers, Van Steensel put good enough numbers to move up to the Chattanooga pen next season, but not good enough to be drafted. He in an interesting prospect who might be a couple seasons away if his fastball plays against better competition, but he is not there yet.
Risk %: 25%
 
UT Logan Wade
Age: 24
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 190 lb
Highest Level: A+
Acquired: Signed by the Twins as an International Free agent from Australia
2015 Prospect Rank:NR; 2014: 37
Last season (A+) : .258/.296/.374; 366 PA, 3 HR, 3 SB, 20 BB, 63 K.
Summary: Wade is an average utility player at Fort Myers who can play all over the field. Not sure that he is ready for AA, much yet for the majors.
Risk %: 5%
 
 
LHP Jason Wheeler
Age: 25
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 255 lb
Highest Level: AAA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 8th round of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (AA/AAA) :25 G, 25 GS, 137.2 IP, 5.9 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 5.43 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 1.467 WHIP, .323 BABIP
Summary: Typical Twins' minor league middle of the rotation starter. Pitch to contact pitcher with above average control, hoping to induce ground balls that the defense behind him will turn to outs. Much better success at AA than at AAA last season. He is a lefty. Maybe someone things that with a couple few pitches and a few ticks higher in his FB might turn into an acceptable reliever in the majors. Maybe.
Risk %: 55%
 
UT Stephen Wickens
Age: 26
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 170 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 33rd round of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank:NR
Last season (A+) : .254/.352/.333; 310 PA, 1 HR, 16 SB, 36 BB, 45 K.
Summary: Steady utility player who has played every position except CF and C. Has value on resting starters for a good minor league team and not hurt the team with the bat or the glove, but that's about it. I do not see him getting selected.
Risk %: 15%
 
LHP Corey Williams
Age: 25
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 205 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 3th round of 2011
2015 Prospect Rank: NR
Last season (A+/AA) :29 G, 0 GS, 33.12 IP, 7 K/9, 4 BB/9, 2.43 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 1.110 WHIP, .247 BABIP
Summary: Williams is a lefty in the Twins' system with closer staff, but command issues. He was on a quick trajectory to the majors that got derailed with a Tommy John surgery and the loss of all 2014. He returned in 2015 and put good but not great numbers. The Twins know his medicals better than any team, but Williams is the type of guy you add to a 40-man roster because if healthy he can help a team down the stretch better than the likes of Aaron Thompson and Ryan O'Rourke. Also this is exactly the kind of guy who might get drafted for the same reason.
Risk %: 75%
 
RHP Alex Wimmers.
Age: 27
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 212 lb
Highest Level: AA
Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round of 2010 (21st overall)
2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 2014: 40
Last season (AA) :30 G, 18 GS, 115.1 IP, 7.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 4.53 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 1.387 WHIP, .325 BABIP
Summary: Wimmers is the poster boy of the players who get drafted in the Rule 5 draft. Another season removed by Tommy John surgery he put respectable raw numbers in AA and pitched the most innings in his career. A control artist with ground ball tendencies and a strikeout breaking ball, might need a change of scenery. The potential is there and now that he has proven that he can handle the work load, he will find a taker. Surprised if the former 1st Round selection is with the Twins at the conclusion of the Winter Meetings.
Risk %: 85%

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
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Earlier this week, and lost among winning the rights to negotiate with Buyng Ho Park, trading Chris Herrmann for Daniel Palka, and Aaron Hicks for John Ryan Murphy, the Twins signed LHP Dan Ruzler to a Minor League Contract. I broke the news here, but did not have much time for analysis, since the other events happened, so here it is.
 
The transaction seems pretty unremarkable, reading something like this: The Twins have signed LHP Dan Runzler from the Sugar Land Skeeters of the Atlantic League and have assigned him to AAA Rochester Red Wings. Dan Rusler is not Andrew Albers or Kaleb Thielbar, a couple of unremarkable Twins' minor league free agents originating from the independent leagues and playing in the majors during the Twins' recent dark years. Who is Dan Runzler and why I am so sure that he might actually be a factor? First things first:
 
Dan Runzler is 30 years old, listed at 6'4" and 230 lbs (but his physique looks a lot like that of former Twins' Tyler Robertson; think NFL defensive end.) He is from Santa Monica, CA, and was drafted by the San Fransisco Giants from the University or Riveside, CA, in the 9th round of the 2007 draft. At Riverside in his junior (last) season, he was a swingman, staring 10 games (including a complete game) and relieving in 12. He did have an electric fastball in college and added a devastating slider in the Giants' minors, allowing him to make the jump in the majors in 2009, just 2 seasons after he was drafted. After that season he was listed as high as number 4 in the Giant's prospect lists. Baseball America had him at number 5 with Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Zach Wheeler ahead of him. So he was a highly regarded prospect.
 
2010, the season that the Giants won it all, he was an integral part of their bullpen and has a World Series ring to prove it. The local press held him in the same regard (as a potential closer) with Sergio Romo and Jeremy Afeldt. Not a shabby company to have, especially if you can back it up on the mount with a plus plus 95-97 mph Fastball and a 85-88 mph slider, producing a 25.7% K-rate (resulting to 10.2 K/9) and a 2:1 ground ball to fly ball ratio. Think of Fransisco Liriano before elbow problems. That season he had a 3.03 ERA and 3.14 FIP. So what happened? A couple of things: Ruzler has always been somewhat wild and the command of his slider has been inconsistent. Even in the 2010 season, he had a 5.5 BB/9 and 1.500 WHIP (even with a below average .250 BABIP.) Later in the season he had a knee injury that made him go to a couple of rehab stints and was caught in the numbers game for a team that was after (and won) a World Series. By 2011 he was bypassed in the depth charts in a highly competitive team and a bad shoulder and lat injury, in his words, "subconsciously made him change his mechanics". In the same piece he called his command problems in 2010 and before, "mental issues".
 
At that point he was demoted. Regardless the source of his problems, he never made it back, optioned a couple of times and finally outrighted on September of 2013. The Giants released him in July of 2014 to play in Japan. For some reason he never made it. Last season he hooked up as a free agent with the Diamondbacks where he pitched in 39 games (37.7 IP) for the AAA Reno Aces of the Pacific Coast League. His ERA was 5.26 (3.86 FIP), WHIP 2.02 (but an outlandish .407 BABIP.) He walked 28 (6.7 BB/9) and struck out 40 (9.6 K/9.) Encouragingly, his K% was 21.6% and he was close to 3:1 in Ground outs : Fly outs. He finished the season playing 19 games (17.1 IP) with Sugar Land of the Atlantic league, where he put insane (but almost irrelevant) numbers: 0.52 ERA, 3 BB (1.6 BB/9), 20 K (10.4 K/9), and 0.865 WHIP. The one number that is of interest here is the walk number, which is stellar. And this is a number for which competition does not matter than much because you either throw strikes, or you don't.
 
I think that Runzler might be a great signing for the Twins. Clearly, his issues with command are mechanical and mental. And he admitted that. The fact that he was not throwing as many balls while playing at Sugar Land, makes me think that he was not thinking too hard, and just throwing in that level. Can he do this come Spring Training, and hopefully in the majors, for the Twins? Can the Twins help his mechanics? Two very important questions to answer, but lefties who throw 97 mph Fastballs and 88 mph Sliders do not grow on trees, esp. when that repertoire results in 11 K/9 and 2-3:1 GB:FB out ratio and a .212/.282/.263 slash line (his career number) from left hand hitters.
 
http://www1.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Dan+Runzler+San+Francisco+Giants+v+Houston+mSyT7FYmdcll.jpg
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The guys discuss the Twins' busy offseason so far and share what they think the team might look like going into next season.
 
http://www.spreaker.com/user/sbarnard4/the-breakdown-ep-16-slow-week

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
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Earlier this week, and lost among winning the rights to negotiate with Buyng Ho Park, trading Chris Herrmann for Daniel Palka, and Aaron Hicks for John Ryan Murphy, the Twins signed LHP Dan Ruzler to a Minor League Contract. I broke the news here, but did not have much time for analysis, since the other events happened, so here it is.
 
The transaction seems pretty unremarkable, reading something like this: The Twins have signed LHP Dan Runzler from the Sugar Land Skeeters of the Atlantic League and have assigned him to AAA Rochester Red Wings. Dan Rusler is not Andrew Albers or Kaleb Thielbar, a couple of unremarkable Twins' minor league free agents originating from the independent leagues and playing in the majors during the Twins' recent dark years. Who is Dan Runzler and why I am so sure that he might actually be a factor? First things first:
 
Dan Runzler is 30 years old, listed at 6'4" and 230 lbs (but his physique looks a lot like that of former Twins' Tyler Robertson; think NFL defensive end.) He is from Santa Monica, CA, and was drafted by the San Fransisco Giants from the University or Riveside, CA, in the 9th round of the 2007 draft. At Riverside in his junior (last) season, he was a swingman, staring 10 games (including a complete game) and relieving in 12. He did have an electric fastball in college and added a devastating slider in the Giants' minors, allowing him to make the jump in the majors in 2009, just 2 seasons after he was drafted. After that season he was listed as high as number 4 in the Giant's prospect lists. Baseball America had him at number 5 with Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Zach Wheeler ahead of him. So he was a highly regarded prospect.
 
2010, the season that the Giants won it all, he was an integral part of their bullpen and has a World Series ring to prove it. The local press held him in the same regard (as a potential closer) with Sergio Romo and Jeremy Afeldt. Not a shabby company to have, especially if you can back it up on the mount with a plus plus 95-97 mph Fastball and a 85-88 mph slider, producing a 25.7% K-rate (resulting to 10.2 K/9) and a 2:1 ground ball to fly ball ratio. Think of Fransisco Liriano before elbow problems. That season he had a 3.03 ERA and 3.14 FIP. So what happened? A couple of things: Ruzler has always been somewhat wild and the command of his slider has been inconsistent. Even in the 2010 season, he had a 5.5 BB/9 and 1.500 WHIP (even with a below average .250 BABIP.) Later in the season he had a knee injury that made him go to a couple of rehab stints and was caught in the numbers game for a team that was after (and won) a World Series. By 2011 he was bypassed in the depth charts in a highly competitive team and a bad shoulder and lat injury, in his words, "subconsciously made him change his mechanics". In the same piece he called his command problems in 2010 and before, "mental issues".
 
At that point he was demoted. Regardless the source of his problems, he never made it back, optioned a couple of times and finally outrighted on September of 2013. The Giants released him in July of 2014 to play in Japan. For some reason he never made it. Last season he hooked up as a free agent with the Diamondbacks where he pitched in 39 games (37.7 IP) for the AAA Reno Aces of the Pacific Coast League. His ERA was 5.26 (3.86 FIP), WHIP 2.02 (but an outlandish .407 BABIP.) He walked 28 (6.7 BB/9) and struck out 40 (9.6 K/9.) Encouragingly, his K% was 21.6% and he was close to 3:1 in Ground outs : Fly outs. He finished the season playing 19 games (17.1 IP) with Sugar Land of the Atlantic league, where he put insane (but almost irrelevant) numbers: 0.52 ERA, 3 BB (1.6 BB/9), 20 K (10.4 K/9), and 0.865 WHIP. The one number that is of interest here is the walk number, which is stellar. And this is a number for which competition does not matter than much because you either throw strikes, or you don't.
 
I think that Runzler might be a great signing for the Twins. Clearly, his issues with command are mechanical and mental. And he admitted that. The fact that he was not throwing as many balls while playing at Sugar Land, makes me think that he was not thinking too hard, and just throwing in that level. Can he do this come Spring Training, and hopefully in the majors, for the Twins? Can the Twins help his mechanics? Two very important questions to answer, but lefties who throw 97 mph Fastballs and 88 mph Sliders do not grow on trees, esp. when that repertoire results in 11 K/9 and 2-3:1 GB:FB out ratio and a .212/.282/.263 slash line (his career number) from left hand hitters.
 
http://www1.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Dan+Runzler+San+Francisco+Giants+v+Houston+mSyT7FYmdcll.jpg
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Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
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After the trading deadline passed and with the Twins' having the league's worst record in the last couple of months and their lead for the first and then the second wild-card position was getting smaller and smaller, there was hope that Terry Ryan will do something to improve the team in the 3 biggest positions of need, shortstop, catcher and the bullpen.
 
But he did nothing, other than trading the teams' 18th and 25th prospects (and that is from this off-season) for a 30 year old middle reliever with another year of arbitration in the middle of a 4.22 FIP and 1.333 WHIP season (and aided by a .254 BABIP.)
 
 
The Twins' fans feel that have every reason to be upset because of Ryan's inactivity. On the other hand, they should not be, because Ryan himself said exactly what he was going to do.
 
“I have every intention of trying to improve this club and find a piece here and a piece there,” 7/31
 
The "a piece here and a piece there" should had clinched that Ryan will be up to his usual dumpster diving.
 
 
“There’s nobody that’s more sensitive about that than me. They’ve done a hell of a job getting to this point, and we’re in a good position, and now it’s my responsibility to help the cause,” 7/31
 
It was his responsibility, but if nobody holds him accountable for not doing things he is responsible, might well be anyone's responsibility...
 
“I’m aware that one correct move by me could help that cause immensely because it’s going to change that attitude in the clubhouse. I don’t want them thinking a white knight is coming around the corner, because it might not be. But it also is a possibility that you don’t have to tinker with this too much to get us going back in the right direction.” 7/31
 
Here you have it. Clearly; "might not be". And you don't have to tinker too much, just get a mediocre reliever who is slightly better that the awful ones that are with the club. "a piece here"; not a white knight; not an All-Star reliever. That would be too much tinkering.
 
And here is the kicker:
 
“We’re not going to mess around much with this major league team,” 7/31
 
And he didn't. True to his word. And you don't have to read between lines.
 
It was all there. Why hope that Ryan will not be Terry Ryan in 2015, since he had been Terry Ryan since 1994 (with the small break of "retiring" to let someone else deal with the Santana and Mauer contract and the Ballpark situation, before returning.)
 
This is Terry Ryan.
 
And unless he goes away, the Twins' fans will not see another parade downtown Minneapolis. And if the Twins' owner cares about the Country Club more than winning, he should tell the team to one who cares about winning.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
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After my visit to Fort Myers was said and done about a year ago, I gave my prediction about how the Twins will do in 2014 and the main reasoning behind it. You can find that here (and, yes, I did predict that they will finish 70-92, but that's not something to be happy about.) During this Spring Training, I took a risk: I suggested that the Twins can actually compete, if they do three things: Fix their bullpen, fix their outfield, and fix their attitude. Here is reiterrating that reasoning from the first part of that series of posts:
 
First: In order to make significant, measurable and effective change, you cannot focus on changing 20 things. Too many balls in the air, some will drop. Focusing of few things that you can change and make an effort to do so, is much more effective. Second: I do believe that with the changes this off-season, the Twins removed a huge barrier to their success: Breaking ties with Gardernhire, Anderson, Ulger and Steinbach (even though they did not go far enough in my opinion, but this is all another matter,) is the equivalent of starting the seasons with (at least) plus five wins.
So that next number in that loss progression looks more between 83 and 87. So those three things that need to be done, if done correctly and effectively, will be enough to give the Twins an extra 5-7 wins, putting that total loss range to 76-82 and that is not a losing record. The top number of that range (86-76) is close to a wild-card number and likely, if the Twins get there, they will compete for the title in a weakened and more balanced Division.
 
 
So there are the parameters. And in each of the above linked posts, I explained in detail what I was looking to see when I was down there at Fort Myers, and, here is what I saw, and will try to put into win-loss numbers:
 
First of all, I am standing by that underlined statement up there. So, if all things are the same, the baseline record of the 2015 Twins is 77-85. Take it to Vegas. Of course that is pending major injuries to 3/5ths of the rotation and 3/9ths of the position players (but that is, yet, another story.)
 
How much higher than that can get? Let's take those three things one at a time and see:
 
The bullpen: Here are my thoughts before my trip to Fort Myers, and here is what I think now: It still is incomplete. Happy to see that Blaine Boyer and JR Graham will likely make the team. They will be an improvement. It looks like Mike Pelfrey will make the pen, but not sure in what kind of role. Caleb Thielbar might be optioned. That's on the positive side. On the negative side Tim Stauffer might be a disappointment, or at least a mop-up vs. a set-up reliever I thought that he would be. Also, Casey Fien looks like a lock again, based on small sample size. Glen Perkins' velocity topped at 93 mph, which is a concern, even though command and control was there. One wonders whether he will be ready to be a lights out closer in the beginning of the Twins' season at Detroit... Tough to quantify, but I would say, taking Perkins' health risk into account, plus 1 might be right here. So the new baseline is 78-84. Next:
 
The Outfield Defense: Here are my before thoughts, and this is what I saw: Nah. Not yet. Let me start with a (bonus) prediction: The Twins will have the following 4 outfielders in their roster (L/R) : Oswaldo Arcia, Jordan Schafer, Torii Hunter. Shane Robinson will be the fourth outfielder, platooning with Schafer at CF against LHP and Eduardo Nunez will play LF as well. So 4.5 outfielders with Aaron Hicks and Eddie Rosario optioned to AAA. What I saw at Fort Myers was somewhat disturbing: a. the positioning of the outfield was way too shallow (not sure who is the Twins' OF coach these days or who is responsible for that), b. Hunter is a teenager at heart but not in body, which means he wants to do above and beyond, but he comes short in a bad way, over-running balls and over-throwing cut-off men. c. Hicks will not make the team and he is a better defender than Schafer. Have to give this a zero right now. Baseline still 78-84. Next.
 
The Attitude: Here is what I said about that. And I will be brief. Is this a team for which I got a gut feeling that it expects to win each game? No. But, is this a team that is paying more attention to detail, seems happier as a bunch, and actually talks to each other on the field about what they should do more than last season? Heck, yeah. Hard to quantify, but I think plus 2. So the new baseline is 80-82.
 
Conclusion: This will not be another 90 loss team, unless something weird happens. 80-82 is the baseline. Another factor: I did get some 1987-like excitement there, like this might be a magic year (like that one.) But I think that they are one year away. So my prediction for 2015 is that the Twins will have the same record as their Pythagorean in 1987: 79-83. But, yes, this year feels a lot like 1987, and you never know what is going to happen...
 
 

Heading out this morning. Yesterday, there was minor league action plus BP for position players who didn't make the trip to Clearwater. Ervin Santana pitched the first four innings of the Triple A game and was unspectacular, one run in four innings-probably a half dozen strikeouts. It was home run derby on the AA side with Twins' farmhands connecting for five long balls.
 
I finally met TD's own Halsey Hall and a couple of lurkers, whose names will be withheld to protect them. Nice people all around. I truly enjoyed my time in Florida. Needless to say, it has gone fast. I will write a longer summary tomorrow unless I spend too much time shoveling snow!

Originally posted at The Tenth Inning Stretch
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Today the Twins were playing against the Philadelphia Phillies at Clearwater, so it was a back field day at Fort Myers, to have a better look at the Twins' prospects. Blustery and overcast day, which rained up in Clearwater enough to delay the Twins-Phillies start time and later in Fort Myers to wash everything out in the back fields at around the 8th inning.
 
But there was some great action: At field three, the AAA players were playing against the Orioles AAA team and at field four, the AA players against another Oriole team. Later at field two the Twins high A and A teams had a scrimmage. Because of the weather situation at Clearwater, Ervin Santana stayed at Fort Myers, to join the AAA team, and it was the focus of attention. I am certain that there will be reports about his pitching, LEN3 was there, among others, and was watching carefully, but my attention was at field four at the Chattanooga team. I did see Santana throw 4 sliders in a row, which left a wide-eyed Orioles played unable to do anything but strike out looking (one was in the ground for a ball) and I had enough.
 
For the Lookouts, the starter was DJ Baxendale, a pitcher who pitched the single most dominating game I have ever seen two years minus a day ago, and made it all the way to number 15 in my 2014 off-season Twins prospects list, but struggled mightly once he reached New Britain, so I was eager to see how he was pitching. He pitched with mixed results. His fastball was from 88-92 with excellent movement and excellent command in the first 3 innings. He threw (not enough times) a low 70s curve that did make knees buckle and he commanded it pretty well. However his high 70s slider was lacking command and his low 80s changeup was inconsistent. I am not sure whether that slider is a new introduction to his repertoire (did not have it back then) but it does not seem like it is working. Some of the changeups were great, with a lot of tailing movement away from LHBs, but others were on the ground. Most of the mistakes were on hanging sliders, and one happened with 2 outs, after Niko Goodrum dropped an easy double play ball while trying to take it out of his glove. I think that Baxendale has shown flashes, but was not the same commanding pitcher I saw previously.
 
Staying with the pitching side for the lookouts, he was replaced by Madison Boer who was once a borderline Twins' top ten prospect, but looked really tentative. His fastball was at 89-92 with not much movement, but did induce a couple of fly outs, and was supplemented by a violent mid-80s slider that has a lot of bite and the makings of a really filthy offering, but at this point it is not a well commanded pitch. This season is a make or break season for Boer, I believe. With a couple more miles on his fastballs and command of his slider, I do see him as a potential reliever, but the problem is that the Twins have at least half a dozen more ready righty pen arms at this point. Tim Shibuya relieved Boer and did not change my mind from what I wrote about him a couple days ago here.
 
This Chattanooga team is a powerful one. There were 5 home runs hit at that game. Two, one from Michael Gonzalez and Adam Walker (the Twins' number 31 prospect, who had a second one to the right field) hit the middle of the batter's eye at dead center, beyond the 405 feet fence, with Walker's being a screeching line drive, while Gonzalez' a monster fly. DJ Hicks added another one to the right center, which landed at the next field and Jason Kanzler, who is doing all he can to impress while keeping Buxton's Centerfield position warm, until the major league CF job is done and the AA outfielders get demoted, hit a fifth over the left field fence. Even though the home runs were impressive, I think that the best plate appearance was by the most powerful member of the Lookouts' team and it was not a home run: with Terry Doyle, a familiar face, on the mound for the Orioles, Miguel Sano went 0-2 on a questionable inside looking strike one and a swinging strike two. He took the next four pitches (all balls and some close) and walked right before the DJ Hicks' home run. This shows that Sano is maturing as a hitter and recognizing the strike zone, which is a great thing to see from the Twins' top prospect who has been criticized about "striking out too much" by some.
 
 
 
..

 
A few interesting sightings at Field Two:
 
Felix Jorge was back on the mound throwing his pitches with good velocity and excellent command after a fairly disastrous season split between Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids.
 

 
Also at hand was the Twins' number six prospect, Amaurys Minier who played left field. He made an excellent fielding play at left on a ball that was caught by the (by then really heavy) wind and moved towards the infield and his swing can generate a lot of power. He has a very powerful build, but still a lot of athleticism. In a way similar to Sano at that age, he appeared like a man among boys in that field:
 

 
 
A couple of parting thoughts from Field Four about the Twins' number 2 and 3 prospects: Jorge Polanco made a couple of difficult plays at shortstop look routine. I am not sure how the rumors about him not being a good shortstop fielder are spread and why, but every time I see him, I am looking at an above average shortstop play. Byron Buxton has a hard time with off-speed pitches. His last plate appearance went like this: FB- Looking Strike, CH - Swinging Strike, CH (dirt in front plate) - Ball, FB (high) - Ball, FB (inside) - Ball, CH - Swinging Strike - K. Interesting situation in the outfield involving Mike Kvasnicka who played left and Buxton: There was a play at left close to center and both were going for the ball, with Kvasnicka, very loudly yelling "I got it" and Buxton letting him get it. Good to see that the lesson from the last time those guys went after the same ball was fully learned.
 
You can find all the 2015 Spring Training coverage from Fort Myers and beyond, here.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
----The Twins has a couple split squad games today, against the Rays at Port Charlotte and at the Hammond Stadium against the Orioles. Here are my notes from the home game:
 
After Alex Meyers' demotion yesterday, there are only 3 pitchers left in the battle for the 5th rotation spot: Mike Pelfrey, Tommy Milone and Trevor May. The last 2 started the respective games today, with Milone taking the node for the home game. While May ended up pitching a no-hit 4 innings at Port Charlotte, Milone had an adventurous start in Fort Myers. He is a pitcher who really needs to be spot on and if he is not, it is like a batting practice, and the Orioles showed that in the second inning, when they timed perfectly his 83-87 mph Fastballs, hitting them all over the park, and one (by former Twin Steve Pearce) off the staircase that leads to the RF berm, for a HR. He complemented his fastball with a 79-81 mph change and a 73-75 mph curve that were hit and miss. Totally unimpressed with Milone, maybe because I do not think much about LH junk ball pitchers, but I think that after today Milone took a step back from Pelfrey and May in that competition.
 
To be noted: in the Orioles 4-run second inning, Josmil Pinto was hit three times! by Adam Jones' back swing on the head and left the game after the inning was over. Mildly surprised that the Twins' pitchers did not retaliate for their catcher, but the next pitcher who faced Adam Jones, was Glen Perkins... Perkins had a decent outing, other than hanging an 82 mph slider to Delmon Young for a HR in the 5th. 9 pitches, 6 FBs (90-92,) 3 SLs (81-82) all but one strikes, but a strike was a long one too. He was pounding the zone, but he is at least 4-5 mph with both of his pitches from where he needs to be.
 
Brian Duensing pitched 2 scoreless innings and he seems in mid-season form with all 4 of his pitches working: His Fastball was 89-91, threw 2 curves at 73, one for a looking strike, got a ground out and a couple of looking strikes with a mid 80s change and his slider was fairly lively at the low 80s, inducing a couple of jammed pop ups. Watching JR Graham pitch was a treat and I think that the Twins have found a good one. Will be very surprised if he does not make the team. He pitched 2 scoreless innings, and here is the sequence of his pitches (fastball unless mentioned) : First inning: 91-ball ( B ), 93 swinging strike (SS), 94 ground out (GO). 94 fly out (FO). 94 Foul (F), 84 (SLider) Looking Strike (LS), 86 (SL) SS. Second inning: 92 Hit. 95 B, 91 B, 93 LS, 94 F, 95 F, 81 (CHange up) B, 93 LS - K. To Mr Parmelee: 91 B, 96 F, 85 (SL) B, 84 (SL) F, 85 (SL) SS - K. 95 SS, 92 B, 95 B, 96 GO. Very good movement with the fastball, and, as you can see, he does very his speeds. Changeup is not his stronger pitch and he threw only one, but his slider is above average. Looking forward to seeing him this season with the Twins.
 
As far as position players, disappointed with Torii Hunter who killed a couple of Twins' rallies, the first by hitting into a double play with the bases loaded and one out on the first and the second by striking out with runners in scoring position and one out. If you read the box score, you'd think that Danny Santana had a good day with two hits, but what the box score does not show is a couple of awful swinging strike outs and a dropped ball when Rohlfing tried to throw the runner away that ended up moving the runner to third. I think that the battle for the starting Shortstop position is neck to neck as far as Santana and Eduardo Escobar are concerned. Hicks had a bad day at the plate and had a mishap (took a bad route and the ball dropped inches from his foot, but was too shallow) at the outfield that went for a double and a trapped ball that he could have caught. Between the four centerfield contenders nobody has really pulled ahead at this point. Eddie Rosario is hitting .242/.235/.515, Shane Robinson .269/.345/.385, Hicks .222/.313/.370 and Jordan Schafer .217/.357/.261. Pick your poison. Oswaldo Arcia had a good play with the glove on a shallow fly ball that he aggressively called Hicks away and fielded cleanly; that ball would had been an adventure for Willingham last season.
 
Really impressed with the improvements at Hammond Stadium, but there are a few things sorely missing: A couple of (small) infield boards; one to indicate balls and strikes and outs and the other pitch velocity. The main board is not visible from all outfield seats well. But there is always next year.
 
Tomorrow and Monday, there are no home games for the Twins, so expect full coverage of the action at the minor league fields.
 

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
----The Twins has a couple split squad games today, against the Rays at Port Charlotte and at the Hammond Stadium against the Orioles. Here are my notes from the home game:
 
After Alex Meyers' demotion yesterday, there are only 3 pitchers left in the battle for the 5th rotation spot: Mike Pelfrey, Tommy Milone and Trevor May. The last 2 started the respective games today, with Milone taking the node for the home game. While May ended up pitching a no-hit 4 innings at Port Charlotte, Milone had an adventurous start in Fort Myers. He is a pitcher who really needs to be spot on and if he is not, it is like a batting practice, and the Orioles showed that in the second inning, when they timed perfectly his 83-87 mph Fastballs, hitting them all over the park, and one (by former Twin Steve Pearce) off the staircase that leads to the RF berm, for a HR. He complemented his fastball with a 79-81 mph change and a 73-75 mph curve that were hit and miss. Totally unimpressed with Milone, maybe because I do not think much about LH junk ball pitchers, but I think that after today Milone took a step back from Pelfrey and May in that competition.
 
To be noted: in the Orioles 4-run second inning, Josmil Pinto was hit three times! by Adam Jones' back swing on the head and left the game after the inning was over. Mildly surprised that the Twins' pitchers did not retaliate for their catcher, but the next pitcher who faced Adam Jones, was Glen Perkins... Perkins had a decent outing, other than hanging an 82 mph slider to Delmon Young for a HR in the 5th. 9 pitches, 6 FBs (90-92,) 3 SLs (81-82) all but one strikes, but a strike was a long one too. He was pounding the zone, but he is at least 4-5 mph with both of his pitches from where he needs to be.
 
Brian Duensing pitched 2 scoreless innings and he seems in mid-season form with all 4 of his pitches working: His Fastball was 89-91, threw 2 curves at 73, one for a looking strike, got a ground out and a couple of looking strikes with a mid 80s change and his slider was fairly lively at the low 80s, inducing a couple of jammed pop ups. Watching JR Graham pitch was a treat and I think that the Twins have found a good one. Will be very surprised if he does not make the team. He pitched 2 scoreless innings, and here is the sequence of his pitches (fastball unless mentioned) : First inning: 91-ball ( B ), 93 swinging strike (SS), 94 ground out (GO). 94 fly out (FO). 94 Foul (F), 84 (SLider) Looking Strike (LS), 86 (SL) SS. Second inning: 92 Hit. 95 B, 91 B, 93 LS, 94 F, 95 F, 81 (CHange up) B, 93 LS - K. To Mr Parmelee: 91 B, 96 F, 85 (SL) B, 84 (SL) F, 85 (SL) SS - K. 95 SS, 92 B, 95 B, 96 GO. Very good movement with the fastball, and, as you can see, he does very his speeds. Changeup is not his stronger pitch and he threw only one, but his slider is above average. Looking forward to seeing him this season with the Twins.
 
As far as position players, disappointed with Torii Hunter who killed a couple of Twins' rallies, the first by hitting into a double play with the bases loaded and one out on the first and the second by striking out with runners in scoring position and one out. If you read the box score, you'd think that Danny Santana had a good day with two hits, but what the box score does not show is a couple of awful swinging strike outs and a dropped ball when Rohlfing tried to throw the runner away that ended up moving the runner to third. I think that the battle for the starting Shortstop position is neck to neck as far as Santana and Eduardo Escobar are concerned. Hicks had a bad day at the plate and had a mishap (took a bad route and the ball dropped inches from his foot, but was too shallow) at the outfield that went for a double and a trapped ball that he could have caught. Between the four centerfield contenders nobody has really pulled ahead at this point. Eddie Rosario is hitting .242/.235/.515, Shane Robinson .269/.345/.385, Hicks .222/.313/.370 and Jordan Schafer .217/.357/.261. Pick your poison. Oswaldo Arcia had a good play with the glove on a shallow fly ball that he aggressively called Hicks away and fielded cleanly; that ball would had been an adventure for Willingham last season.
 
Really impressed with the improvements at Hammond Stadium, but there are a few things sorely missing: A couple of (small) infield boards; one to indicate balls and strikes and outs and the other pitch velocity. The main board is not visible from all outfield seats well. But there is always next year.
 
Tomorrow and Monday, there are no home games for the Twins, so expect full coverage of the action at the minor league fields.
 

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
-----
 
Today the Minnesota Twins played against the Rays at Fort Charlotte, which meant minor league side by side double-header action of Rochester and Chattanooga against the Red Sox' AAA and AA squads at fields 4 and 5 of the Complex.
 
The much anticipated moment today was the return of Glen Perkins who got the first inning with the AAA club against the PawSox. Based on reports from people who were at Fort Charlotte, he did not feel any pain. He was carted to and fro field number 4, which is the furthest away from Hammond Stadium and he threw warmup tosses to Kyle Knudson, who was also the starting Catcher for the Red Wings. During the game, he threw 14 pitches, most strikes. His fastball was sitting at 90-91, hitting 92 and 93 once each. His slider was at 81-82, all figures that are a good 4-5 mph below his season form, but it is still the second (he pitched against the Gophers) game for him. During his warm ups he did seem to throw a couple of changeups, but could had just been slow fastballs. All in all a good appearance, but he has to ramp up pretty quickly.
 

 
 
The second biggest name, as far as players are concerned, was Miguel Sano who played at Field number 5 with the Chatanooga squad. His agent, Rob Plummer, was on site and had a change to have a very enlightening (but off the record) conversation with him. Interesting guy and he seems really proud of the fact that he signed Sano when he was 14. Miguel answered with a three-run monster home run that likely broke a window or two at the subdivision past the fence, with this swing, off William Cuevas :
 

 
 
As a side note, Sano appears fitter than last season.
 
Speaking of celebrities, Tom Kelly was at hand and had a chance to meet with one of his former pitchers, Paul Abbott, who pitched for Kelly's Twins from 1990-1992:
 

 
 
 
I had a chance to see several other prospects and here are quick notes:
 
Greg Peavey was selected by the Twins from the Mets in the AAA portion of the Rule 5 draft last winter. He came in to pitch after Glen Perkins in the AAA side and was pretty impressive. He has three pitches: A 90-91 mph Fastball, a low 70s slow curve and a low 80s change. Pitching mostly with the first 2, but his change did produce strikeouts. Good control and command of all his pitches, very fluid motion; he is definitely a dark horse. A mature pitcher. Also in the AAA side of things, Cole Johnson made a good appearance. He is a fastball slider pitcher with his FB hitting 94 but his slider location was inconsistent. Pretty early in Spring training for that.
 
On the AA side of things, both Nico Goodrum and Michael Gonzalez appear different. Gonzalez appears much fitter and for the 27 year old, this might be his last chance in a Twins' uniform. Goodrum has been working with a personal trainer this off-season and he got some muscle. He is also taking much more robust at bats, than last Spring Training. If you squint really hard, you might confuse him with Byron Buxton, as far as physique goes:
 
 

 
As far as the pitchers at the AA side went, Tyler Duffey started, but I chose to look at Glen Perkins and Greg Peavey next door. I did have a good look at Jeff Reed, who was unhittable at the Arizona Fall League and was really impressed. His fastball was at 95-96 this early and his slider at high 80s. I will not be surprised is he and Nick Burdi are with the big club come August or so. Interesting 3/4 delivery with a fairly aggressive motion. Tim Shibuya pitched a couple good innings. He is really deceptive and one of those "rubber arm" guys. Good repeatable mechanics, good control and command, I really see him as the long man in a major league bullpen some day.
 
It was a treat seeing Jorge Fernandez, my 19th Twins' prospect, to catch today. Really good hands , excellent feet (he got a guy out on a difficult high bounce off the home plate) and very good receiving ability. I never had any doubts about his bat, but really liked what I saw with the glove today. He is a guy who is not considered a prospect, does not get many praises, but I really enjoyed watching Stephen Wickens play today. Good fundamentals and instincts on both sides of the ball, good glove and versatility, might get the 26 year old into the big leagues some day, if he gets his contact rate and plate discipline a bit higher.
 
As a parting shot, here is Sam Perlozzo, the long time major league coach and manager, who started his playing career with the Twins, having an 1 on 2 base-running tutoring session with the Twins' number 2 and 3 prospects.
 

 
Tomorrow the Twins are hosting the Pirates at Hammond Stadium and I will be there. You can find all my 2015 Spring Training posts here.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
-------------
Today the Minnesota Twins hosted the Pittsburgh Pirates at Hammond Stadium. As usual, before the game I trotted by the minor league fields that today were hosting a celebrity from the baseball world:
 

 
A dad watching his kid pitch a bullpen:
 

 
And then walk with him after he was done:
 

 
Interesting enough, not many fans had an idea of who the dad was. And he was about as humble as a baseball superstar as I have seen. He had his picture taken with fans and shook his head and smiled when I told him that his kid has a great arm, from one dad to another. And Derek Rodriguez does have a great arm. He was tossing nice crisp fastballs when he got his mechanics right. But his mechanics were all over the place to begin and his pitching coach was there talking to him pitch after pitch, and Derek incorporated the feedback. I think that making the transition to pitching will be hard, but I think that he has the determination, the tools and the family and Twins support to do it. Will likely start 2015 in Extended Spring Training, but I fully expect him to see him progress fast.
 
Every Spring Training there are a couple of players who are relatively unknown, but do make an impression to me. The first one I will point this year is Jack Barrie, a 19 year old Aussie First Baseman who made his pro debut last season with the GCL Twins. This kid has Kennys Vargas written all over him. Great plate presence, quick wrists, one to keep an eye on. And I bet you never have heard of him.
 
Back to the big boys playing the Pirates. Kyle Gibson started for the Twins and after his recent discussion about adding velocity, I was betting that we'd see at least one 95 mph fastball on the (2 mph or so) fast Hammond Stadium radar, and we did. The problem with Kyle today was that his 93-95 mph fastballs were lacking the movement and the downward break his 90-92 mph fastballs did. Also his slider was not there (he threw 2 in the first innings, including the first HR to Cervelli). In the third inning, he seems that he threw all sliders and change ups. At least he was working the kinks out. No worries about Gibson.
 
In a tale of two who are fighting for the 25th man spot on the roster. Eduardo Nunez beat out a cleanly-fielded ground ball to the SS (our own Pedro Florimon, btw) for an infield hit and managed to steal second two pitches afterwards. Shane Robinson (who is fighting for the same spot,) drove him in with a scorcher on the first base line and then, after Dozier was hit by a pitch to fill first, was thrown out at third on a double steal that found Dozier safe and sound at second. Robinson had some decent plays at left today, but I still think that Nunez is probably fighting with Herrmann (who did not play) for this spot as is now...
 
Back to arms. Blaine Boyer came in to pitch in the middle of an inning and was effective. And then pitched another inning and was effect, but in his second inning his velocity picked up a few notches. His fastball moved from 89-90 all the way to 93-94, his curve from 73 to 76 and he threw some change ups at mid 80s (all well commanded, btw,) which made me think that indeed there might be some pitchers who are different (and better) if they come up with no outs and no ons on the top of an inning. Michael Tonkin and Stephen Pryor followed. Tonkin, who have since been opted, topped up at 94 and so did Pryor, who really did some nifty glovework in a comebacker, which made me think whether there are any real fastball pitchers left on the roster, since that gun is 2 mph or so fast and these 3 are pitchers touted to hit high 90s. Maybe too early, but still somewhat concerning...
 
In another note, it was great to see Toper Anton again, and meet Steve Lein and John Bonnes. See you guys around the next few days.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
---------
 
Today was my first full day at Fort Myers and the Twins had a split squad duo of games, with the half of the team hosting the Orioles at Hammond Stadium and the other half a few miles away playing the Red Sox at Jet Blue Park. This was the second year in a row as far as renovations went for the facilities, and the Hammond Stadium looks really great. The front facade is extended to both broaden the concession place plaza and put a roof over it and to host a couple new elevators and gift shops. There are 4 gift shops in all now, which are much better than the single closet-size one that was there 3 years ago. The main one, which about the size of an average AA ballpark gift shop, even had Miracle T-shirts.
 
For some reason there was no pregame batting practice on field number six, as it has been the norm the seasons before; I suspect that it has to do with the split-squad games today. Joe Vavra was throwing batting practice to someone's kid in the under-stadium cages. Not much activity in the minor league parks also; Sporadic batting practice at the Chattanooga, including Miguel Sano and DJ Hicks hitting some good ones off Stew Cliburn, who looks scarily like Rick Anderson these days. Jorge Polanco and AAA infielders had bunt practice at the Rochester field. Nothing much there as far as minors go, other than Nick Burdi was surrounded by a whole slew of autograph seekers when he showed up. No home game tomorrow, so I will be able so spend a full day with the prospects.
 
As far as the game today went, there were a few things of note:
 
In the first inning, Joe Mauer hit a routine soft grounder to the shortstop, who had a hard time fielding it, dropped it, recovered it and threw to first to get a slow trotting Mauer out. This was not a great thing to see from the Twins' highest paid player. Had he run full speed, he would had been safe. I hope that these kind of plays do not happen again. On the other hand, the subsequent inning Eduardo Nunez beat out a non-trivial cleanly fielded infield single to the shortstop; hard not to see the contradictions between someone who has a job and someone who is fighting for one.
 
Torii Hunter is a yeller at the outfield. And this is a good thing. And he does not only yell "I got it". In couple of situations, a fly ball to right center and a shallow fly to the right, he yelled for Schafer and Dozier respectively to go and get it. And it worked. That was a good thing to see. Eddie Rosario was great with the glove at left. He did throw out Delmon Young when he tried to stretch a single, but even more importantly (and you cannot see that on the scoreboard) he took a triple away from an Orioles hitter with a great route and a great below the knee catch. He made it look so easy, that I bet that most of the Stadium thought that it was a routine play. It wasn't. Speaking of routes, I am not sure that Jordan Schaefer is the best one out there. Had a long fly really misjudged and hit the wall, allowing eventually Torii Hunter to make the throw to the infield. That ball was catchable. Being a left hand throwing Centerfielder might have some disadvantages.
 
As far as pitching went, Stephen Pryor really surprised me. He pitched fine, but there were earlier reports about him being healthy and being back with his mid- to high-90s velocity. He topped at 92 in Hammond Stadium's (fast) radar today, which is not extremely thrilling, to say at least. For comparison's shake, Ervin Santana hit 93.
 
Back there tomorrow morning and expect a full report on the prospects, tomorrow evening.
 

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
----
This is the third and last, but not least, segment in this series. You can find the first segment (fixing the bullpen) and the rationale for the series here, and the second segment (fixing the outfield) here. I think that the most important (and some times the hardest or the easiest) thing to fix for the Twins to win, is the team attitude.
 
How do you measure attitude and how does attitude prevent some one to win, and what is that "attitude" thing anyway. Isn't that thing that your parents and teachers talked about when you were growing up, or something else. Well, as far as baseball goes, I will let former Twins' player and Texas Rangers' manager Ron Washington describe it in this 30 second video. To borrow Washington's words from there, a winning attitude is when you "expect to win" and "do everything you need to do to win". Arguably, the Minnesota Twins the last couple of decades has as motto (at their best,) do all you can do (aka bust your tail) and you win some, you lose some. Those were exactly the words of a smiling Michael Cudduyer at the Twins' dugout, on September 30, 2008, after the Twins lost game 163 at the White Sox (and part of the reason was that Cuddyer did not do what he needed to do to win, colliding with and forcing the ball out of AJ Pierzynski's glove to score.)
 
And giving it all and being "good enough" has been the Twins' motto. And the majority of the fans were ok with "good enough", winning the title of the weakest division in baseball about half of the time, going belly up during the post-season and when they played the AL East, in the 00s. And if the fans are happy with "good enough", you get a brand new ballpark and brand new season ticket sales and that is more that "good enough" as far as revenue goes, when it is not broken, why even bother to think about fixing it? That was the Twins' past decade of "Glory", in half a paragraph. And then it went South.
 
What happened? Well, the Twins did not even do all they could do in the ballpark; add that to a culture of favoritism in the clubhouse, where it did not matter to whether the veterans did all they could do, but when people outside the inner circle opened their mouths were thought under the proverbial bus; add that to not expecting to win, to start with, and you got 99 + 96 + 96 + 92. And most importantly, no excuses for even the most single-sighted fans to believe that this team can win, thus a drop in tickets, thus a drop in revenue, thus...
 
To win, a team needs a leader who expects to win and make sure that his players and coaches do everything they need to do to win. Here was the most common expression of the previous Twins' leader during games the last several seasons (hanging on to the dugout railing optional) :
 

 
Is this the expression someone who is doing all he needed to do to win and lead by example. Is this the expression of someone who expects his team to win? Or is this the expression of someone who looks defeated and solemn? Rhetorical question.
 
There was not a more obvious time for me to see that the Twins players not only doing what they needed to do, but not even all they could do, and was fine with the manager and the coaches, than this particular game last spring training. Before I went down there last season, I did have hopes that with the changes they made in the rotation, plus some players improving, had a chance to break even and have an 81-81 record. But after what I saw, I predicted that the Twins will end up the 2014 season with a 70-92 record.
 
That is the past, and tomorrow I am landing at Fort Myers where I will be for more than a week and be able to see how thing are, but I have a good feeling that they are heading the right way. Other than getting rid of their manager and pitching coach, which by itself is adding 10 wins pretty much, and replacing them with good baseball people and a Hall of Famer as manager, they brought back Torii Hunter. It did not make much sense at the beginning, and I think that they guy is a prick, plus he left the Twins' in free agency just for money and he added insult to the injury, by singing with the biggest division rival in his second free agency, but there might be something positive: As I indicated here, Hunter can help the young players (who were tainted by the Twins' clubhouse attitude, it is no secret) realize that they have to at least give it all and lead by example.
 
I have seen signs from Molitor that he is leading his players towards doing what they need to do. First example, was the no-cell phone policy during game days, which was awful last season. Players need to focus in the game and not in their social media during game day. Second, he benched Aaron Hicks during a game for losing track of outs; a gesture that has not happened during a Twins' Spring Training since 1965, when Sam Mele, the Twins' manager, took Zoilo Versalles (the eventual 1965 MVP) out of the lineup because of lack of effort. And you know what the Twins did in 1965. Also, after a couple of mishaps in short fly balls and lack of communication between infielders and outfielder, Molitor had extra drills of those circumstances with the whole team. The whole team. In previous years, veterans and the inner circle would be excluded and only few would participate in similar drills.
 
There are a lot of positive signs about (at least) a realization that the teams attitude needed to change to win, and actual steps taken this direction. I will be able to know more about how things will play out in this department, in 10 days or so, after I return from Fort Myers and see the team play this Spring. Last year I predicted that 70-92, based on what I saw, I hope that this year, it is the reverse...

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
----
This is the third and last, but not least, segment in this series. You can find the first segment (fixing the bullpen) and the rationale for the series here, and the second segment (fixing the outfield) here. I think that the most important (and some times the hardest or the easiest) thing to fix for the Twins to win, is the team attitude.
 
How do you measure attitude and how does attitude prevent some one to win, and what is that "attitude" thing anyway. Isn't that thing that your parents and teachers talked about when you were growing up, or something else. Well, as far as baseball goes, I will let former Twins' player and Texas Rangers' manager Ron Washington describe it in this 30 second video. To borrow Washington's words from there, a winning attitude is when you "expect to win" and "do everything you need to do to win". Arguably, the Minnesota Twins the last couple of decades has as motto (at their best,) do all you can do (aka bust your tail) and you win some, you lose some. Those were exactly the words of a smiling Michael Cudduyer at the Twins' dugout, on September 30, 2008, after the Twins lost game 163 at the White Sox (and part of the reason was that Cuddyer did not do what he needed to do to win, colliding with and forcing the ball out of AJ Pierzynski's glove to score.)
 
And giving it all and being "good enough" has been the Twins' motto. And the majority of the fans were ok with "good enough", winning the title of the weakest division in baseball about half of the time, going belly up during the post-season and when they played the AL East, in the 00s. And if the fans are happy with "good enough", you get a brand new ballpark and brand new season ticket sales and that is more that "good enough" as far as revenue goes, when it is not broken, why even bother to think about fixing it? That was the Twins' past decade of "Glory", in half a paragraph. And then it went South.
 
What happened? Well, the Twins did not even do all they could do in the ballpark; add that to a culture of favoritism in the clubhouse, where it did not matter to whether the veterans did all they could do, but when people outside the inner circle opened their mouths were thought under the proverbial bus; add that to not expecting to win, to start with, and you got 99 + 96 + 96 + 92. And most importantly, no excuses for even the most single-sighted fans to believe that this team can win, thus a drop in tickets, thus a drop in revenue, thus...
 
To win, a team needs a leader who expects to win and make sure that his players and coaches do everything they need to do to win. Here was the most common expression of the previous Twins' leader during games the last several seasons (hanging on to the dugout railing optional) :
 

 
Is this the expression someone who is doing all he needed to do to win and lead by example. Is this the expression of someone who expects his team to win? Or is this the expression of someone who looks defeated and solemn? Rhetorical question.
 
There was not a more obvious time for me to see that the Twins players not only doing what they needed to do, but not even all they could do, and was fine with the manager and the coaches, than this particular game last spring training. Before I went down there last season, I did have hopes that with the changes they made in the rotation, plus some players improving, had a chance to break even and have an 81-81 record. But after what I saw, I predicted that the Twins will end up the 2014 season with a 70-92 record.
 
That is the past, and tomorrow I am landing at Fort Myers where I will be for more than a week and be able to see how thing are, but I have a good feeling that they are heading the right way. Other than getting rid of their manager and pitching coach, which by itself is adding 10 wins pretty much, and replacing them with good baseball people and a Hall of Famer as manager, they brought back Torii Hunter. It did not make much sense at the beginning, and I think that they guy is a prick, plus he left the Twins' in free agency just for money and he added insult to the injury, by singing with the biggest division rival in his second free agency, but there might be something positive: As I indicated here, Hunter can help the young players (who were tainted by the Twins' clubhouse attitude, it is no secret) realize that they have to at least give it all and lead by example.
 
I have seen signs from Molitor that he is leading his players towards doing what they need to do. First example, was the no-cell phone policy during game days, which was awful last season. Players need to focus in the game and not in their social media during game day. Second, he benched Aaron Hicks during a game for losing track of outs; a gesture that has not happened during a Twins' Spring Training since 1965, when Sam Mele, the Twins' manager, took Zoilo Versalles (the eventual 1965 MVP) out of the lineup because of lack of effort. And you know what the Twins did in 1965. Also, after a couple of mishaps in short fly balls and lack of communication between infielders and outfielder, Molitor had extra drills of those circumstances with the whole team. The whole team. In previous years, veterans and the inner circle would be excluded and only few would participate in similar drills.
 
There are a lot of positive signs about (at least) a realization that the teams attitude needed to change to win, and actual steps taken this direction. I will be able to know more about how things will play out in this department, in 10 days or so, after I return from Fort Myers and see the team play this Spring. Last year I predicted that 70-92, based on what I saw, I hope that this year, it is the reverse...

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
----
This is the third and last, but not least, segment in this series. You can find the first segment (fixing the bullpen) and the rationale for the series here, and the second segment (fixing the outfield) here. I think that the most important (and some times the hardest or the easiest) thing to fix for the Twins to win, is the team attitude.
 
How do you measure attitude and how does attitude prevent some one to win, and what is that "attitude" thing anyway. Isn't that thing that your parents and teachers talked about when you were growing up, or something else. Well, as far as baseball goes, I will let former Twins' player and Texas Rangers' manager Ron Washington describe it in this 30 second video. To borrow Washington's words from there, a winning attitude is when you "expect to win" and "do everything you need to do to win". Arguably, the Minnesota Twins the last couple of decades has as motto (at their best,) do all you can do (aka bust your tail) and you win some, you lose some. Those were exactly the words of a smiling Michael Cudduyer at the Twins' dugout, on September 30, 2008, after the Twins lost game 163 at the White Sox (and part of the reason was that Cuddyer did not do what he needed to do to win, colliding with and forcing the ball out of AJ Pierzynski's glove to score.)
 
And giving it all and being "good enough" has been the Twins' motto. And the majority of the fans were ok with "good enough", winning the title of the weakest division in baseball about half of the time, going belly up during the post-season and when they played the AL East, in the 00s. And if the fans are happy with "good enough", you get a brand new ballpark and brand new season ticket sales and that is more that "good enough" as far as revenue goes, when it is not broken, why even bother to think about fixing it? That was the Twins' past decade of "Glory", in half a paragraph. And then it went South.
 
What happened? Well, the Twins did not even do all they could do in the ballpark; add that to a culture of favoritism in the clubhouse, where it did not matter to whether the veterans did all they could do, but when people outside the inner circle opened their mouths were thought under the proverbial bus; add that to not expecting to win, to start with, and you got 99 + 96 + 96 + 92. And most importantly, no excuses for even the most single-sighted fans to believe that this team can win, thus a drop in tickets, thus a drop in revenue, thus...
 
To win, a team needs a leader who expects to win and make sure that his players and coaches do everything they need to do to win. Here was the most common expression of the previous Twins' leader during games the last several seasons (hanging on to the dugout railing optional) :
 

 
Is this the expression someone who is doing all he needed to do to win and lead by example. Is this the expression of someone who expects his team to win? Or is this the expression of someone who looks defeated and solemn? Rhetorical question.
 
There was not a more obvious time for me to see that the Twins players not only doing what they needed to do, but not even all they could do, and was fine with the manager and the coaches, than this particular game last spring training. Before I went down there last season, I did have hopes that with the changes they made in the rotation, plus some players improving, had a chance to break even and have an 81-81 record. But after what I saw, I predicted that the Twins will end up the 2014 season with a 70-92 record.
 
That is the past, and tomorrow I am landing at Fort Myers where I will be for more than a week and be able to see how thing are, but I have a good feeling that they are heading the right way. Other than getting rid of their manager and pitching coach, which by itself is adding 10 wins pretty much, and replacing them with good baseball people and a Hall of Famer as manager, they brought back Torii Hunter. It did not make much sense at the beginning, and I think that they guy is a prick, plus he left the Twins' in free agency just for money and he added insult to the injury, by singing with the biggest division rival in his second free agency, but there might be something positive: As I indicated here, Hunter can help the young players (who were tainted by the Twins' clubhouse attitude, it is no secret) realize that they have to at least give it all and lead by example.
 
I have seen signs from Molitor that he is leading his players towards doing what they need to do. First example, was the no-cell phone policy during game days, which was awful last season. Players need to focus in the game and not in their social media during game day. Second, he benched Aaron Hicks during a game for losing track of outs; a gesture that has not happened during a Twins' Spring Training since 1965, when Sam Mele, the Twins' manager, took Zoilo Versalles (the eventual 1965 MVP) out of the lineup because of lack of effort. And you know what the Twins did in 1965. Also, after a couple of mishaps in short fly balls and lack of communication between infielders and outfielder, Molitor had extra drills of those circumstances with the whole team. The whole team. In previous years, veterans and the inner circle would be excluded and only few would participate in similar drills.
 
There are a lot of positive signs about (at least) a realization that the teams attitude needed to change to win, and actual steps taken this direction. I will be able to know more about how things will play out in this department, in 10 days or so, after I return from Fort Myers and see the team play this Spring. Last year I predicted that 70-92, based on what I saw, I hope that this year, it is the reverse...

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
----
 
A great article was written today by Jonathan Judge and published at The Hardball Times, called FIP in Context, introducing an new metric, called cFIP, or contest-adjusted FIP that attempts to "estimate the pitcher’s true pitching talent during a particular season". Always interested in new pitching metrics development, and not only because I have partaken myself in the endeavor. this is an interesting one, albeit much more complex than PE and xPE. It also correlates well with SIERA, which along with xPE (because it is easy to calculate) are my 2 favorite predictive metrics regarding pitching performance.
 
I will not steal Jonathan's thunder, please read that excellent article, but I will present his framework and then present his work regarding the Twins' pitchers (he calculated cFIPs for every pitcher in the league the past 4 years, including Jamie Carroll.) The cFIP scale is normalized to 100 for average, just like OPS+ and ERA+, but it is a minus scale, meaning that less is better, like ERA and FIP and SIERA and all similar metrics. Should have been called cFIP-, but that is a different story. So 100 is average and less is better. Jonathan Judge has the following buckets of pitchers, according their cFIP:
 
 
<70 nbsp="" p="" superb="">70–85 Great
85–95 Above Avg.
95–105 Average
105–115 Below Avg.
115–130 Bad
130+ Awful
 
Let's put the 2014 Minnesota Twins' pitching staff in those buckets. For reference, players that are not still with the team are in (parenthesis). I am also including the 2015 cFIP numbers of the newcomers this off-season. They have an asterisk behind their names, that would have made Barry Bonds jealous:
 
Superb:
Phil Hughes 70
 
Great:
Glen Perkins 74
 
Above Avg.:
Casey Fien 89
Tim Stauffer 91*
(Yohan Pino 94)
 
Average:
Aaron Thompson 98
Logan Darnell 99
Ricky Nolasco 100
Trevor May 101
Ervin Santana 101*
Michael Tonkin 102
Caleb Thielbar 103
Blaine Boyer 103*
Lester Oliveros 105
 
Below Avg.:
(Jared Burton 106)
(Kris Johnson 106)
(Sam Deduno 107)
Stephen Pryor 108
Kyle Gibson 109
(Anthony Swarzak 111)
A. J. Achter 112
Ryan Pressly 112
Brian Duensing 114
Tommy Milone 114
 
Bad:
(Matt Guerrier 116)
(Kevin Correia 119)
 
Awful:
Mike Pelfrey 132
 
A few obsevations:

According to this, the Twins had a superb pitcher, Phil Hughes, a great pitcher, Glen Perkins, and 13 total (I am not counting the newcomers) pitchers (that is a full MLB staff, ladies and gentlemen) who were average, above average, great or superb. Mike Pelfrey (who tied for worst in the majors in this metric) was the only awful pitcher in the Twins' staff
But, The Twins had the second worst bullpen in the majors according to xFIP and SIERA and the third worst rotation in the majors, according to SIERA (fourth according to xFIP)
Other than Yohan Pino, who was an unfortunate loss, The Twins' front office seems to behave pretty well according to this metric: The pitchers they let go, are all bellow average or beyond. They did keep a few below average pitchers, and they did keep Mike Pelfrey, who is better suited for the pen and was injured. Other than Duensing who had a down season, the below average pitchers are all young.

Big issue in the big picture here: The Twins had a whole staff worth (13) pitchers who were average and above, yet they managed to be almost at the bottom of the league in pitching. Those things seem pretty conflicting.
 
Let's dig deeper and check out the 2013 Twins' cFIP buckets that Jonathan Judge calculated. For reference purposes, players who left after 2013 are in parenthesis and I added Ricky Nolasco (with an asterisk) as well
 
 
Superb:
Glen Perkins 63
Casey Fien 67
 
Great:
Nobody
 
Above Avg.:
Jared Burton 91
Caleb Thielbar 91
Ricky Nolasco 93*
Michael Tonkin 94
 
Average:
Anthony Swarzak 97
Brian Duensing 97
(Shairon Martis 105)
 
Below Avg.:
Mike Pelfrey 109
(Liam Hendriks 110)
Ryan Pressly 111
(Cole DeVries 114)
(Andrew Albers 115)
 
Bad:
Kevin Correia 116
Samuel Deduno 116
(Josh Roenicke 118)
(P.J. Walters 122)
(Vance Worley 124)
Kyle Gibson 125
(Scott Diamond 129)
 
Awful:
Nobody
 
This is some really interesting data. Here is what I see:

I think that I either underestimated the Twins' Front Office use of metrics in personnel decisions building the team or Jack Goin should buy me a beer next week at Hammond Stadium, because this tool really describes what the Twins are doing regarding personnel decisions: The tend to get rid of below average and below pitchers and add average and above pitchers. Hughes was around 100, but I did not add him here. This is a stop the presses type of statement, me coming close to shake my head in approval of what the front office is doing...
This tells a tale of 2 cities: All the Average and above pitchers were relievers. All starters were bellow average or worse but not awful. And Pelfrey was the best.
Enough with 2013. What happened in 2014, comparatively to 2013? Every single reliever from Perkins down regressed, while the starters (save hurt Pelfrey and replacement level Correia) improved. This is fundamentally interesting, because it kinds of breaks some old school axioms. And the one excuse for the decline of the Twins' pen in 2014 was that, they were worse because they were too tired because the rotation was so bad. This data, turns this upside down: The Twins 2013 rotation was worse than the Twins 2014 rotation, and the 2014 Twins' pen made the 2014 Twins rotation worse. So a bad pen can make a rotation worse. Like a reliever coming in with 2 outs and the bases loaded to give a grand slam and 4 runs to the starter. What a concept...

I am starting to really like this metric... So (and this is really hard for me to say) the Front Office did some improvements for 2014, that actually seem to be supported by real data, but the pitching tanked compared to 2013. Why?
 
I'd love to hear your theories after this, and this is what I am thinking:

Look at that 2014 list up there. In your mind, normalize it for playing time. That would shift the buckets heavier to the below average. How many games did Pino or May start compared to Pelfrey, Correia, Deduno? Why was Burton used in high leverage situations over better relievers? Yes. Do the same normalization for playing time for the 2013 data. And you are looking at evidence of what has been written here loudly and clear about mismanagement of the Twins' pitching staff by Gardy and Andy for ages.
This has to be part of the reason cause for the pen decline in 2014, and the root causes are described within there. And they have to be fixed. And, yes, metrics can be devised to normalize and approximate defense independent pitching, but I have not yet seen one that could estimate the madness of the Twins' 2014 OF (what is the range factor of a bucket?)

 
This actually makes me more hopeful, because it seems like the Twins are doing an effort to address some things. So, what do you say?
 

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
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Today is the seventh installment in the top 40 Twins' Off-season prospects countdown, and the descriptions of the player and rationalization of their rankings continue to a bit more detailed. You can find all installments here in reverse chronological order. Previous rankings: 36-40, 31-35 , 26-30 , 21-25 , 16-20 and 11-15. You can find the 2014 off-season summary list here In these listings in parenthesis, I am including their ranking in the last prospect list, which was the 2014 mid-season list, with "--" if not ranked. You can find that list here. Before I start counting down the top 10, I need to mention the names of the players who dropped from the mid-season top 10 (along with their rankings in that list in parenthesis) : Nico Goodrum IF (22), Matthew Koch C (28), Zach Jones RHP (31), Sean Gilmartin LHP (32); and not only because he is not part of the organization any longer, Brian Gilbert RHP (33), Argenis Silva RHP (34), Sam Clay LHP (35), DJ Baxendale (37). Now that we established that Nico Goodrum is not one of the top 10, here are the prospects 10 to 6, with a couple of surprises:
 
 
 
10. Nick Burdi RHP (14) RHRP, DOB: 1/19/1993, 6'5", 215 lbs.
 
Nick Burdi was the Twins' 2nd round draft pick in 2014 from Louisville. This was what Nick Burdi did in relief in 2014: Louisville: 37 IP, 65 K, 10 BB; Cedar Rapids: 13 IP, 26 K, 8 BB; Fort Myers: 7.3 IP, 12 K, 2 BB. Total: 57.3 IP, 103 K, 20 BB. His K% was 43.6% in College, 48.2% at Cedar Rapids and 42.9% at Fort Myers. A high 90s nasty fastball that often reaches triple digits, complemented by a low 90s even nastier slider, and there is no wonder than many, including the author of this, were wondering why Burdi did not start his pro career in the majors, since he is the best RHRP in the Twins organization at any level, since he was drafted. But this is not the way the Twins are thinking. The 22 year old had nothing to prove in a league whose average age was 2 years + older. He will likely have nothing to prove in Chattanooga and be called to the majors by mid-season to serve as the Twins' set up man or even the closer. He is not on the 40 man roster and has not been invited to the MLB Spring Training camp as of yet.
 
9. Lewin Diaz 1B (24) LHB, DOB: 11/19/1996, 6'3, 180 lbs.
 
Lewin Diaz is an unknown name among most Twins' fans, but it will not be so for long. He was signed as a 16 year old in 2013 from the Dominican Republic for a $1.4 million bonus. 2014 was his Pro debut in the DSL where he hit .257/.385/.451 with 5 HRs and 24:26 K:BB in 174 PA as a 17 year old. He was about 1.5 years younger than the league average and hit well in a pitcher's league where the average slash line is .245/.339/.331. Five HRs might not seem like much, but Diaz hit all but 2 of the DSL HRs and had the same or more HRs than 3 of the Leagues' teams. His is stronger (and bigger) as a 17 year old than both Miguel Sano and Kennys Vargas at that age. His glove is a work in progress at 17 and will likely end up at first base. Will likely move to the GCL in 2015, where he will make his presence known to most of the Twins fans. Here is a picture of Diaz from 2013 with David Ortiz, when Diaz was on the Dominican elite travel team (and Diaz was just 16 years old) to get an idea about the size of this kid:
 
http://dplbaseball.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/2013-DPL-Elite-Travel-Team-tour-Ortid-Diaz-700x463.jpg
 
8. Eddie Rosario OF (10)
 
Eddie Rosario was the Twins' 4th round pick of the 2010 MLB draft from teh Rafael Lopez Landron High School in Puerto Rico. Rosario has been a top Twins prospect since he hit .337/.397/.670 with 21 HRs in 298 in Elizabethton as a 19 year old (1.5 years younger than League Average) in 2011. In 2012 he hit .296/.345/.490 in Beloit where he suffered a broken jaw as result of being hit by a pitch, and in 2013 he hit .329/.377/.527 in Fort Myers and .284/.330/.412 at New Britain. Baseball Prospectus twice named him top 100 prospect (#87 in 2012 and #60 in 2014). Last season was a trying season for Rosario. Suspended for 50 games for street drug use, changing position from 2B to full time OF, he never found his swing. He hit just .237/.277/.396 at New Britain and .300/.382/.300 in 8 games at Fort Myers, where he started the season.
 
So why is Rosario ranked so high, if he apparently has contact problems at AA? It is because of his past and his potential (for pretty much the same reason that Sano and Buxton are still top prospects, even though they had worse seasons that Rosario in 2014) and because of what he did in the Arizona Fall League where he hit .330/.362/.410 with 10 SB in 105 PAs (his highest SB/PA rate ever.) I take it as a clue that the 23 year old has put his bad couple seasons behind him and he is on his way of realizing his potential. I'd like to see more doubles as well, but he is getting there. He is on the Twins' 40 man roster, and unless something bad happens, he will be called for a cup of coffee in September, maybe sooner depending on his performance and the MLB team's needs. His stock as a prospect dropped when he moved to the outfield from second base, but still Rosario would had been a top 5 prospect in most organizations out there. Will likely start 2015 as the starting Centerfielder for the Red Wings (the assumption is that Buxton will have that position for the Lookouts,) unless he gains a major league job out of Spring Training.
 
7. Kohl Stewart RHP (7) RHSP, DOB: 10/7/1994, 6'3", 195 lbs.
 
Stewart was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 1st round (4th overall) of the 2013 from St Pius X (Houston, TX) High School. Other than a single game started in Elizabethton (4 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 8 K) he started his pro career in the GCL at age 18, where he pitched in 7 games (4 GS) for 20 innings, walking 3 and striking out 16. He had a 1.69 ERA and 0.938 WHIP. Last season was not Stewards best, when he was promoted to Cedar Rapids. There he started 19 games and looks like he was bitten by the pitch-to-contact bug of the Twins' organization. His K% dropped from 23.2% in the GCL (which is not great for someone with his stuff to begin with) to a mere 17.2%, putting his K rate to the Blackburner. His 2.59 ERA and 1.14 WHIP might look encouraging before someone takes a look at his 3.73 FIP and .270 BABIP. Still Stewart was a full 3 years too young for the league at 19 and has been battling shoulder issues pretty much the whole season.
 
Stewart has 4 pitches that he commands well: A plus to plus plus mid 90s fastball that peaks at 97-98, a close to plus mid to high 80s slider, an above average high 70s to low 80s curveball and a very good mid 80s changeup. In August his fastball was barely hitting 90, which is an indication of injury. He is still young, he has a lot of potential as long as the shoulder is strong. If that happens and if he can start to miss bats, he could be a top of the rotation pitcher. Right now, he is the third best RHSP prospect in the Twins' organization.
 
6. Amaurys Minier 1B/3B/OF (11) SHB, DOB: 1/30/1996 6'2", 190 lbs
 
Amaurys Minier might be slighted by this ranking (and it is the highest I have seen him ranked in any of these lists.) He was signed by the Twins as a 16-year amateur free agent ($1.4 million bonus) out of the Dominican Republic on July 2, 2012. In his first pro season in 2013 at the GCL he hit .214/.252/.455 (which other than the power numbers, is pretty bad) and then, he had shoulder surgery in the off-season for batter's shoulder. Recipe for disaster. Everyone thought that it will be a lost season. But what did Minier do? He played a full season in the same GCL as an 18-year old (2 years younger than the league average) and hit a mere .292/.405/.520 with a 29:52 BB:K ratio in 205 PAs. To put this into perspective: Minier had shoulder surgery, is 3 months younger than Nick Gordon (the Twins' 12th prospect), who in most lists is a top Twins' prospect, and out hit him in any possible way in the same team (Gordon's numbers: .294/.333/.366, 11:45 BB:SO, 256 PA.) If you have 2 players the same age, one coming from a surgery and outhitting the other by that much in the same team, there is no way to justify not ranking them in this order. Or is there?
The one issue with Minier is his glove. He was signed as a SS (a position he never played professionally and likely will never play,) played an awful third base in 2013 and a better 1B and so-so LF in 2014. A lot of people think that Minier might have the most power in the Twins' organization (and this includes his compatriots Sano and Diaz and the MLB stars in making Vargas and Arcia; Sano's GCL slash line was .291/.338/.466, for comparison. With these 5 players mentioned, the Twins might have locked the corner IF and OF and DH positions for a while. But this while will not start as soon as for the others, for Minier and Diaz. Definitely exciting to see how these young powerful guys develop for the Twins.
 
 
http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5152/7098789651_02fb66b359_z.jpg

You can download the new Talk to Contact (@TalkToContact) episode via iTunes or by clicking here, and if you want to add the show to your non-iTunes podcast player, this is the RSS Feed.
 
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rZl6xXzEO6k/VJrNsvxH7yI/AAAAAAAAKds/tW7cZWGDkBk/s1600/phil-hughes.jpg
 
Phil Hughes renegotiated a contract adding three more years to his deal and keeping him in Minnesota through 2019. This was such a momentous occasion that we asked the Twins Hangouts fellas, Seth Stohs and Jeremy Nygaard, to join us.
 
 
I'll warn you up front that E Rolf had his potty mouth out again, and that the beer was flowing on the podcast, so if you have children, or sensitive grandparents in the room, you may want to go elsewhere to listen.
 
We talk about Phil's new contract, and try to figure out exactly what the Twins acquisition of Tim Stauffer means for the organization going into 2015. For starters it means that Eric Fryer has been removed from the 40-man roster, but that might not be such a bad thing, depending on who you ask.
 
We discuss the recent minor league manager assignments, and some other minor league news before jumping into our winter series reviewing the roster. This week we take a look at Casey Fien, Lester Oliveros and Eduardo Escobar.
 
Thanks for listening and enjoy our show.