Karbo

In looking at the 2023 schedule a bit closer, the Twins schedule in April may be the most important month of the year. Not only, as it is every year, will it be important to get off to a good start, the schedule has some tough matchups, and, what should be, very winnable series as well. 
Here is a breakdown of the first month of the season: 
3 @ Kansas City Royals
3 @ Miami Marlins
3 vs Houston Astros
3 vs Chicago White Sox
4 @ New York Yankees
3 @ Boston Red Sox 
3 vs Washington Nationals 
3 vs New York Yankees 
4 vs Kansas City Royals 
 
I first wanted to look at the head to head record against these teams this past year. The Twins had a combined record of 28-30 against these opponents. They did not play against either Miami or Washington in the 2022 season. So against the other 6 teams, they had a losing record. While this might not be a great sign, if you take the Astros and Yankees out as well, the combined record is 26-19. 
So, as I mentioned, getting off to a strong start is important in wanting to win the division and make the playoffs. It appears the Twins are capable of finishing April above .500, but they will need to play well to do so. If they play as poorly against the Yankees and Astros as they did in 2022, they will have to be almost flawless against the other teams during the month, which is not a great recipe for success. 
Now let's break down what the Twins need to do to have a successful first month of the season this coming year: 
3 @ Kansas City: The Twins record against the Royals in 2022 was 12-7. This is the type of record they will need to have this coming year if they want to win the division again. It's hard to sweep a 3 game series, so a good start to the season would be winning 2 out of 3 in Kansas City. 
Record: 2-1 
3 @ Miami: The Miami Marlins went 69-93 this past season, but have improved in some areas as well (see Arraez, Luis). While the Marlins are an interesting team and have a pretty solid rotation going forward, they will likely be having their 4/5/1 starters going in this series. A 2-1 record feels realistic in this scenario. 
Record: 4-2 
3 vs Houston: Man, did the Twins play horrible against the Astros in 2022. In the 6 matchups, the Twins were outscored 11-36. The later matchups were closer, but they still lost all of them. The Astros are one of the favorites to represent the American League in the World Series in 2023. I would like to believe the Twins will play better against the Astros this year, especially in their first series at home, but it's not a given. I will say it would be great if they went 2-1, but would expect a 1-2 record instead. 
Record: 5-4
3 vs Chicago: The Twins and White Sox were pretty evenly matched throughout the year, with the Twins winning the season series 10-9. Both teams are hoping (and probably expecting) improvement from last year, but if the Twins can continue to have success versus Chicago and win 2 out of 3 in this series, they will finish the first homestand 3-3. This isn't ideal, but not bad given the matchups of Houston and Chicago to start it. 
Record: 7-5
4 @ New York: If you have been mildly paying attention to baseball for the past 20 years or so, you have probably noticed the Twins record is abysmal when playing in New York, or heck, playing against the Yankees anywhere. Maybe they should try playing on the moon or something? Anyways, the Twins have had very little success in New York since I can even remember, but going 2-2 on the road in New York would be a pretty solid matchup. Because it appears the Twins may be cursed when it comes to the Yankees, I am tempering my expectations and say they can go 1-3 in New York and still have a successful first month. 
Record: 8-7
3 @ Boston: The Red Sox are an interesting team in the sense that they have let moved on from stars, such as Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts, but have retained Rafael Devers going forward. They also signed Mastaka Yoshida, who I am excited to see transition to MLB and I think could be a pretty solid addition going forward. While I don't think they should have traded a generational talent in Betts, they deemed it the right move. Because the Red Sox are in a weird flux position and I'm not convinced they have improved enough to stay competitive, I will say the Twins are capable and need to win 2 out of 3 games in Boston to start off successfully in 2023. 
Record: 10-8
3 vs Washington: While the Red Sox moved on from Betts, the Nationals moved on from Juan Soto, who has received comparisons to Ted Williams. Soto is now in San Diego, and the Nationals are in a free fall from their championship in 2019. The Nationals went 55-107 last year and while their young guys are improving, it's not clear they will be a competitive team this coming season. Winning 2 out of 3 versus Washington will be key to the first month of the year. 
Record: 12-9
3 vs New York: It feels realistic to think the Twins could be 12-9 at this point, and facing New York will be another tough test, about 10 days after they played them first. After winning 2 out of 3 against both Boston and Washington, I would hope the Twins come in with some confidence and play well. To have a successful first month, the Twins will need to either split the 4 games in New York and/or win 2 out of 3 in this series a week and a half later. I will say they have to win 2 out of 3 to not have people wondering too much if they are for real or not. 
Record: 14-10
4 vs Kansas City: The Twins finish the month off versus the lowly Royals, who happen to always give the Twins a tough matchup it seems. 4 games series are always a little weird and it seems like the Twins always go 2-2 in those matchups, I think the Twins are capable of winning 3 out of 4 against the Royals, but I will say they only need to win 2 out of 4 with where they are at to have the first month be deemed a success. 
Record: 16-12
 
While a 16-12 record doesn't mean it would be a resounding success, with a total of 10 of those games being against the Yankees and Astros, this record would not be the worst possible outcome. While I think they could win 2 out of 4 in New York, or even win the Astros series, I think it's hard to say they will definitively do either of those things. While it's possible to not play well against the Yankees and Astros and still finish the month off with a winning record, it's not something Twins fans would feel great about if they get dominated by those teams that are considered favorites in the American League. (Note: This has the Twins going 4-6 against these two teams). Now that I see that, going 5-5 in those matchups could be a decent outcome. 
 
I am pretty confident that if the Twins finish the first month 16-12, or even 15-13, or better, they will be set up to succeed going into the dog days of summer. One thing I think that will be interesting is that they will play every team in the league this year, which means less games against their AL Central foes. The Twins went 39-37 versus the division last year, which they will need to be better than that to win the division, without a doubt. I would like to believe they will be better against Cleveland than they were in 2022 (6-13). 
 
Let me know in the comments if you think this is realistic in your eyes, or if you think I am too high or too low on the level of success the Twins need to have in the first month of the season. 

Kyle Farmer is a starting quality MLB SS will fill a bench role for the Twins this year. While he is valuable in that role, his biggest value might have just come in - as a trade chip to the Dodgers to replace Gavin Lux at SS after Lux tore his ACL yesterday.  The Dodgers other option is 34-year-old Miguel Rojas who they acquired from the Marlins before spring training. You have to think the Dodgers are looking for a starting caliber SS that's locked into a reserve role on another team, particularly one who can be a 1 or 2 year option while Lux recovers or they get a free agent next winter. Voilà! 32-year-old longtime starting SS Kyle Farmer seems to meet all of those criteria.
Interestingly enough, the Dodgers could also use a proven outfielder. They do have Mookie Betts in right, but are looking at an aging Chris Taylor and an unproven  Trayce Thompson to play center with a very unproven James Outman in left. It seems like a respected veteran like Max Kepler might be a good fit.

I think there's a real possibility that Kyle Farmer becomes a trade talking point between the Twins and the Dodgers. It would not surprise me if Kepler is also in the discussion. The Dodgers have a deep farm system particularly in pitching and catching. I do think there's a match. May be a Caleb Ferguson or Andre Jackson might be a good piece for Farmer. Add Kepler and maybe you can get Outman, Landon Knack, or Nick Mastrini or 1 of them plus someone a little farther down the list? Who knows, maybe there's a way to pry Ryan Pepiot away if you offer, Farmer, Kepler and maybe a solid AA guy.
I think there's a real opportunity here for the Twins to trade what are now somewhat redundant pieces - a 32-year-old starting caliber Shortstop who will be relegated to a reserve role for the one year he is with the team and a 30-year-old good fielding, roughly average hitting outfielder for whom there seemed to be adequate replacements. The Dodgers are a win now team that needs both those kinds of players. What you guys think?

This is one person's view concerning the possible upcoming free agency of Shohei Ohtani.
There have been many predictions that Ohtani may be the first $500M player.  The reaction of most people is that a price tag like that eliminates the Twins.  But, does it?
If Ohtani becomes a free agent, I think the Twins should make a quick offer of 8 years at a total of $480M (an AVV of $60M).  WTF? you say?  Why not?  You get a genuine "ace" and a top tier outfielder wrapped up in a single person.  The top three free agent pitchers in 2022 signed for an average AVV of $32M and the top three free agent hitters signed for an average AVV of $27M (or $59M combined).  The offer looks outrageous but it is in line with the going rate.  It also frees up an additional roster spot!  And, from what I am hearing on MLB radio and TV, the merchandise sales in Japan alone might cover the entire salary.  It is certainly worth taking a shot at signing Ohtani.  Tell his agent it is your BAFO (best and final offer) and is good only for 24 hours.  If he signs, great.  If he doesn't sign, you gave it your best shot.

Although the Twins are really hurting for viable future catching yet it seems like Ricardo Olivar is totally off the Twins radar. In '22, Olivar was named the MVP of the FCL, FCL post season All-Star catcher and FCL player of the month in July. Although he's listed at catcher, where he played the most of his games, he still played a lot of games at CF and some at 2B and cOFs. He's also good defensively w/ above average arm.
Season Team Level Age G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA   wRC+         2021 MIN FCL 19 34 59 1 5 5 3 13.6% 28.8% .143 .290 .204 .339 .347 .336   92         2022 MIN FCL 20 40 154 5 16 23 5 11.7% 21.4% .256 .430 .349 .442 .605 .480   181 He got drafted in '19 but didn't start pro ball until '21 because of covid. Like a lot of these prospects during this time their development stopped & they became stagnant. The problem is he turned 21 last Aug, & that's a little old for rookie ball. My hope is like Endy Rodriguez exploding this year going from A to AAA, Olivar will do this coming year starting at A ball. Endy was Rule 5 draft eligible this year & Ricardo will be next year.
Ricardo didn't even make TD's honorable mention but he's been on my radar & I'll be tracking him this coming year. 

Deciding the "Mount Rushmore" of any sports franchise can be hard to do. Most franchises have many great players who are deserving. Here are the four who make up my Minnesota Twins Mount Rushmore.
Harmon Killebrew Killebrew played for the Twins from 1954-1974. He was a 13-time All-Star, won the American League MVP award in 1969, and finished his career with 573 home runs. He currently sits at 12th in all-time home runs. With the Twins, Killebrew hit .256/.376/.509 with 559 home runs, 1559 RBI, and 1843 walks. He also won six American League home run titles and led the MLB in RBI three times. Killebrew finished his baseball career with the Kansas City Royals in 1975. When his career wrapped up, Killebrew finished 1st in Twins RBI, WAR+ and home runs. Killebrew was inducted as a member into the Hall of Fame in 1984. When Killebrew retired, he was one of the most feared hitters ever and one of the greatest sluggers in baseball history. All of these accolades earn Killebrew a spot on the Twins Mount Rushmore.
Kirby Puckett Kirby Puckett, in addition to being a fan favorite was a great player. Puckett batted .318 in his career, which is the highest in Twins history. Puckett won the AL batting title in 1989 with a .339 average, and he finished in the top ten in batting average eight times in his career. Puckett had 2,304 hits in his career, which is the second-most in Twins history. Puckett was a 10-time All-Star, which is tied for the most ever in Twins history. Puckett was a key part of the Twins' two World Series championship teams in 1987 and 1991. In the 1991 World Series, he hit .429 with two home runs and six RBI in the series. His most famous moment as a Twin was his walk-off homer in game 6 in 1991. Puckett won many awards during his career. These included six Gold Gloves, the 1989 AL batting title, and the 1991 AL Comeback Player of the Year award. Unfortunately Puckett's career was cut short due to retina damage in his right eye following the 1995 season. Puckett was named to the MLB Hall of Fame in 2001. Overall Puckett's combination of hitting, defense, and postseason success make him one of the greatest players in Twins history and earns him a spot on the Twins Mount Rushmore. 
Rod Carew Rod Carew was one of the best Minnesota Twins players of all time because of his performance both at the plate and in the field. During his 12-year career with the Twins (1967-1978), Carew hit for a .334 batting average, which is the highest in Twins history. He took home the American League batting title in seven of those 12 seasons with the Twins, including four consecutive titles from 1972 to 1975. In 1977, he hit .388, the highest batting average by any American League player since 1941. Carew was an All-Star in all 12 seasons with the Twins. Carew was the AL MVP in 1977. Carew was also a really good fielder. He won a Gold Glove in each of his last five seasons with the Twins. Carew was named to the MLB Hall of Fame in 1991. Rod Carew's greatness as a hitter, combined with his exceptional fielding ability, makes him one of the greatest players in Minnesota Twins history and puts him on Mount Rushmore.
Joe Mauer Joe Mauer wraps up this list. In his time with the Twins, Mauer played 15 seasons with the Twins (2004-2018). In that time he hit over .300 in nine seasons and finished his career with a .306 batting average. Mauer's defense was incredible, he was a Gold Glove-winning catcher 3 times during his career and was widely regarded as one of the best defensive catchers in the game during his prime. Mauer won multiple awards throughout his career, including the American League MVP award in 2009. He also won three Gold Gloves, five Silver Slugger awards, and was selected to six All-Star teams. Mauer's stats were excellent; he had 2,123 hits, 143 home runs, 923 RBI, and 1,018 runs scored. He also drew 939 walks and struck out only 877 times in 7,708 plate appearances. Mauer's career on-base percentage was .388, which is among the highest in Twins franchise history. Overall, Joe Mauer was a fantastic player who excelled on both sides of the field. His awards and stats all contribute to his legacy as one of the best players in Twin's history and earn him a spot on the Twins Mount Rushmore.
With players such as Johan Santana, Tony Oliva, Bert Blyleven and Torii Hunter being left off this list there is plenty of room for debate on who deserves to be on the Twins Mount Rushmore.
 

The Nelson Cruz for Joe Ryan trade should benefit the Twins for many years to come. This trade will give the Twins a quality pitcher for years, while only having to give up a 40-year-old Cruz whose career is on the decline. In return, the Twins acquired a player whose career is just getting started and will help the Twins compete for years to come.
Twins fans were sad to see fan-favorite, Nelson Cruz, get traded to Tampa Bay at the 2021 trade deadline. Cruz was a part of the 2019 Bomba Squad where he slashed .311/.392/.639 and hit 41 homers. He was a huge piece of the 101-61 first-place Twins. In 2020 Cruz slashed .303/.397.595 with 16 homers in 53 games and helped the Twins claim another first-place finish. During his time in Minnesota, Cruz finished 9th in MVP voting in 2019 and finished 6th in voting in 2020. In 2021 the Twins were struggling and at the time of the trade were sitting at 41-56. They decided there needed to be a change in the roster, so they flipped Nelson Cruz and Calvin Faucher in exchange for Joe Ryan and Drew Stroman. When Cruz got to Tampa he slashed .226/.238.442 with 13 homers. The Rays traded for Cruz to help them make a deep run in the playoffs and they ended up falling in the ALDS to the Red Sox. In free agency Cruz tested the market and signed a one year deal for $15 million with the Nationals. With them he slashed .234/.313/.337 with 10 Homers. Now Cruz signed a 1 year deal for $1 million with the Padres and with Cruz being 42, his career is going to come to a close soon. 
The prospects in the deal are minor pieces so I won't spend much time on them. The Rays acquired Calvin Faucher. At the time of the trade, Faucher had a 7.04 ERA with 42 strikeouts in 30⅔ innings for Double-A Wichita. He was selected in the 10th-round draft pick by the Twins in 2017.  Last year at the major league level he went 2-3 with an ERA of 5.48 in 21.1 IP. The player the Twins acquired was Drew Stroman. At the time of the trade, Strotman had a 3.39 ERA with 62 strikeouts in 58⅓ innings with the Durham Bulls. He was the Rays 17th-ranked prospect after being drafted in the fourth round in 2017. In 2022 the Twins DFA'd Strotman and he was later claimed off waivers by the Rangers. This offseason he signed a deal with the Giants.
Now let's talk about the major piece acquired for the Twins-Joe Ryan. At the time of the trade, Ryan was a 25-year-old who was about to pitch for Team USA in the Tokyo Olympics. He had a 3.63 ERA with 75 strikeouts in 57 innings for the Durham Bulls, the Rays AAA team. MLB.com put him in the No. 10 spot in Tampa Bay's system.. Ryan joined the Twins at the 2021 trade deadline and in that time he made five starts at the end of the season with 30 strikeouts in 26 2/3 innings. Now the 26-year-old pitcher is coming off a very good season last year where he went 13-8 with a 3.55 ERA in 147 innings over 27 starts. He also impressed with His Hard Hit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, and K%. They all ranked in the 63rd percentile or higher. Ryan also set the Twins’ single-season rookie record for strikeouts. Over his last 9 starts, Ryan was impressive and had a 2.81 ERA. There were some bumps in the road with Ryan last year such as how he allowed a .500+ SLG on every pitch but his fastball last season. He’s allowed an SLG% of .531 on his slider with a .368 expected SLG%. His .538 SLG% on his changeup is not a good number compared to his .443 expected SLG%. His curveball struggled last year with a .524 SLG compared to a .354 expected SLG. It is important to remember he is a fastball-reliant pitcher with him using it 60.1% of the time. With his fastball, he has allowed a .183 BA against and a .328 slugging %. With the Twins trading for Pablo Lopez, this year, I believe it will benefit Ryan as he doesn't have to focus on being the Twins front-end guy. He can build off of a good rookie season and help the Twins compete for years to come. It is important to remember that Ryan is just coming off his first full MLB season last year. He is young and still needs time to develop and reach his true potential. If he can improve his off speed numbers he could be a front-end starter for years to come. 
The Twins currently have team control of Ryan through the 2027 season. While Cruz was a fan favorite and it was sad to see him go, trading him sets the Twins up for success in the years to come.

What can we expect the Twins first base situation to look like this year? Right now the Minnesota Twins have two first basemen on the depth chart. Those two players are Alex Kirilloff and Jose Miranda. On opening day we can expect to see Kirilloff at first but with his health always being a concern, the Twins should be looking into alternative options for this upcoming season. I believe that there will be some in-house choices and a free-agency option for the Twins.
In-house options 
Alex Kirilloff  Joey Gallo Jose Miranda Kirilloff will more than likely be the Twins starting first baseman, even though his MLB numbers aren't extremely productive when he is at the plate. Through 387 plate appearances, he is slashing .251/.295/.398 with 11 HRs, 55 RBI, 4.9 BB%, 22.7 K%, and a 91 wRC+. For being one of the Twins top prospects for many years, it's disappointing to see him have such few plate appearances. But It's important to remember that most of the time he's spent on the field he's been fighting through wrist and elbow injuries, With this being said, he's only 25, and I still believe he's got plenty of time to develop into the player he was with the Saints last year. In 2022 he had 157 PA slashing .359/.465/.641, and a 192 wRC+ in AAA. As of right now, he's the best positional fit that the Twins have to be their Opening Day first baseman. 
  Alex Kirilloff Career stats The next option for the Twins would be Joey Gallo who will most likely be the backup first baseman this year, the new signing has 96 career games at 1B through 8 MLB seasons, as we know Gallo is an excellent defensive outfielder with Gold Gloves won in 2020 and 2021. We also know that Gallo can be an everyday first baseman as in 2017 while he was with the Texas Rangers.  He played 59 games at 1B that season. Throughout his total career at 1B, Gallo has 96 games played at first while having a .995 FLD% on 754 chances. That just shows how great of a defender Joey Gallo is at 1B, and will be a very quality backup for the Twins this season. 
 Joey Gallo 1B stats The 3rd option for the Twins this upcoming season will be Jose Miranda, more than likely he will spend his time over at 3rd and being a DH this year and will more than likely only be placed 1st if injuries start to hurt the Twins. Last year Miranda played 77 games at first, with a fielding percentage of .994, and had 505 putouts on 536 chances, while only having 3 errors in those 77 games. For Miranda, it's not the issue of whether or not he can play first, which we know he can, it's that we don't need him to play first. He fits better at 3rd and DH, He will probably play 3rd most of the time with so many of our infield prospects being in the Minors. As the season progresses, we may call some of them up I could see him going more to the DH role.
 Jose Miranda Defensive Stats Free-Agency option
Yuli Gurriel The best Free-Agency option at 1B for the Twins would be Yuli Gurriel, I believe the Twins should sign him to a 1 year deal that is a low risk/high reward deal. Obviously he didn't have his best season last year. In 584 PA he was slashing .242/.288/.360 with a 85 wRC+ which is a bit of a downgrade from his 2021 campaign where he slashed .319/.383/.462 and won the AL batting title. I do believe he can be a great depth piece for the Twins with Kirilloff being extremely injury prone. I believe his ability to stay healthy last year with the Astros, where he tallied up 584 plate appearances and played in 146 games could be huge for a Twins team that struggles to keep players on the field. Even though he is 38, which could be a factor for his health, If he can stay on the field like he did last year It could be a really nice depth addition. The Twins should know the player he is capable to be, and if he returns to his 2021 form it could be a really nice signing for the Twins.
 Yuli Gurriel Career stats With Opening Day more than a month away, the Twins have plenty of time to figure out their plans for 1B. 
     

Much of this off-season has been frustrating for Twins fans. Once again, the Twins failed to pick up a bona fide ace to front the rotation. They did however pull off a major coup by re-signing Carlos Correa for a contract valued will below what many predicted he would get going into the off-season. They also solidified the depth in the rotation by trading fan-favorite Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez. As we approach Spring Training, where do the Twins stand? 
Let us take a look at predicting the Twins' record based on WAR. Last year, the Twins totaled 36.1 WAR as a team, resulting in a 78-84 record. There is a strong correlation between team WAR and overall wins. 
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-wins
A team constructed of all 0 WAR players is said to be around a 50 win team. It could be argued that the Twins under-performed based on their season WAR total last year and probably should have been in the low to mid-80's for wins. A team war total of 45 or better should get the team to a win total in the 90's.  So how do the changes made by the front office equate to 45+ WAR for the 2023 Twins? Below is a projection for individual WAR values for the upcoming season. Each player listed below is followed by a projected number of games and their associated WAR (based on b-WAR). 
Starting IF (12.8 Combined WAR) Vazquez (105, 1.2), Kirilloff (120, 1.5), Polanco (140, 3.0), Correa (140, 5.6) Miranda (130, 1.5). The question marks here are Kirlloff and Miranda. Neither is projected to add huge numbers to the team's total and players such as Kyle Farmer and Joey Gallo can mitigate those two. Both Kirlloff and Miranda have the potential to produce higher WAR values than projected.
Starting OF/DH (12.6 Comined WAR) Gallo (120, 1.8), Buxton (60 CF, 60 DH, 5.0), Kepler (120, 1.8), Taylor (120, 2.5), Larnach (110, 1.5). There are several question marks here, starting with Gallo. The Twins obviously feel Gallo still has some of what he showed in Texas.  Kepler, Gallo and Larnach are all projected to be similar and if one slips, Gordon gives some additional protection. Having Michaeal A. Taylor to play 100 games in CF allows the Twins to keep Buxton healthy and potentially play 120 games in 2023. This could be done by a rotation of something like this every eight games:  CF, DH, Bench, CF, DH, CF, Bench, DH. Obviously projecting 120 G from Buxton is a gamble, but he did put up 4.0 WAR in 92 G in 2022.
Bench (1.9 Combined WAR) Jeffers (55, 0.7), Farmer (100, 0.7), Gordon (60, 0.5). While this may not appear a strength, this may be where this year's Twins may be set up to improve on 2022. They appear to have more depth and players not listed (Wallner, Celestino, Garlick, Lewis, Julien and Lee) potentially able to come up and fill in as needed.
Rotation (12.8 Combined WAR) Gray (3.0), P.Lopez (3.0), Ryan (2.4), Mahle/Maeda/Ober (4.4). Projecting games here was a bit of a challenge. Gray and Lopez's WAR values are in the range of their past two season and Ryan's projects a slight increase from last season (2.2). Mahle, Maeda and Ober all have health concerns, but the hope is that they can hold down the fort between the three of them.  Having Varland, Winder and Woods-Richardson in AAA as players ready step in also mitigates a huge drop in WAR production. There is no "horse" raising this group's WAR, just a bunch of solid contributors.
Bullpen (6.8 Combined WAR)  Duran (2.5), J.Lopez (1.5), Jax (1.0), Thielbar (0.7) Moran (0.7), Alcala (0.4), Pagan (0), Megill (0). The biggest concerns here are Lopez producing closer to what he did in Baltimore as well as Pagan and Megill being used in situations that do not produce negative WAR. This is one area the front office could still help the 2023 Twins. A Michael Fullmer signing makes a ton of sense.
Altogether, this projection gives the Twins 46.9 WAR as a group, enough to push them to 90+ wins for 2023. This should put them solidly into playoff consideration with the new playoff format. While some of the projections may seem optimistic, it could be argued that they are all well within historical performances and allowing for some development from younger players. This squad seems better situated to deal injuries than the past couple of years. The Twins have above average  backups for the three toughest defensive positions (Jeffers, Farmer and Taylor). While there may have been moves that the front office could have made this year to make this team better, it seems as though the floor for this squad is as high as we've seen for a few years. 
 
 

The Minnesota Twins in 2022 saw a lot of inconsistency in the pitching staff. First, pitching coach, Wes Johnson, left half-way through the season, then injuries started to expose the depth of the system. Now in 2023, the Twins have Mahle and Maeda back in the rotation, they added Pablo Lopez to the staff, and people like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober have much more experience. The bullpen also looks promising with the return of Alcalà and the breakout of Duran and Jax last season. If this staff can stay healthy, they can easily be top 10 in the MLB, but how far will they go? 
 
Rotation
Joe Ryan
After being acquired in the Nelson Cruz trade from the Rays, Joe Ryan dazzled in AAA and impressed after his September call up. Ryan had a strong start to 2022 before getting COVID-19 and turning into average the rest of the season. If Ryan can keep up his early season success, he has the potential to be in the Cy Young debate. 
Goals: Have an ERA under 3.00 and throw 170 innings. Prove that you can be a front of the rotation starter.

Pablo Lopez
Lopez was called up in 2018 with the Miami Marlins and struggled until the 2020 season when he pitched 11 games and had a 3.61 ERA. In 2021, he threw 102.2 innings and had a 3.07 ERA in his breakout year. Though he has struggled with injury problems in the years prior, he had his healthiest year in 2022 and threw 180 innings. However, Lopez steadily regressed each month in 2022, which is a big concern. Now in 2023, Lopez has a lot to prove, since he is playing for a real contender and potentially competing for the #1 rotation spot. 
Goals: Throw another 180 innings (and stay healthy).  Get your changeup back to 2020-2021 form. Have an ERA under 3.60 and be that guy who goes deep into games regardless of success. Finally, stay consistent all of the way through 2023 and do not start to tail off. 
 
Bailey Ober 
Ober made his debut in 2021 and (I’d say) impressed if you consider the situation. The 6-11 RHP continued his solid run in 2022 before running into injury problems. Ober will likely slot in at the sixth starter and will get plenty of opportunities. If Ober can stay healthy, he can be a solid replacement to either Gray, Mahle, or Maeda in 2024.
Goals: Pitch 125 innings and keep an ERA under 4.00. Keep your BB% under 6% and FIP under 3.50.
 
Tyler Mahle
Mahle is a very interesting pitcher to look at statistically. Don’t be fooled by his career 4.35 ERA. Mahle was formerly with the Reds, who have one of the most hitter friendly ballparks. Mahle’s ERA in Great American Ballpark is 5.00 in nearly 300 innings. In over 300 innings on the road, his ERA 3.76. Unfortunately, last season did not go how the Twins planned, as he only made 4 starts with them before an injury shut him down the rest of the year. If Mahle can rebound from his injuries, his ERA will look much closer to 3.70 than the 4.35 mark we have seen previously.  
Goals: Throw 140 innings and finish with an ERA under 3.50. Keep your WHIP below 1.200. Maintain your fastball velocity all the way through the year.
 
Bullpen
Griffin Jax 
If you look at Griffin Jax’s Baseball Savant page, you’ll see a lot of red. After Jax officially switched to the bullpen this year, we saw his average fastball rise almost 4 (!) mph. On Jax’s Instagram this winter, we saw him reach 100 mph. We can only hope that he keeps making these jumps. Last year, Jax had a 3.36 ERA and boasted a SO/9 over 9. Jax has tons of upside and if he continues to improve, he can certainly be a top bullpen arm in the American League.
Goals: Try and make your fastball be more effective. Keep your ERA under 3.50 and your FIP under 3.20.

Jhoan Duran 
Duran had the best Twins reliever season since Joe Nathan in 2006. The best part is that Duran was a rookie, and he was doing this against the opposing teams best hitters. Duran was acquired in the Eduardo Escobar trade from Arizona and so far, Duran is proving that he is worth it. He'll be challenged this year, as he likely won't be the designated closer, but will pitch when the opposing team's hitters come up in the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning. He has the chance to be the best reliever in all of baseball in 2023.
Goals: Prove that the 2022 season wasn’t a fluke. Stay healthy and consistent.
 
Jorge Alcalà
Similarly to Jax, Alcalà’s Baseball Savant page is mostly red. He’s in the 96th percentile for fastball velocity. Fans waited for his return in 2022, but injury kept holding it off until it was too late. Alcalà pitched well in 2022, appearing in almost 60 innings and having an ERA of 3.92. All in all, his floor is very high, but he must stay healthy.
Goals: Stay healthy! Have an ERA under 4.00 and throw 55 innings. Earn a meaningful spot in the big league bullpen.
 
I may be overly-optimistic, but I think that the Twins pitching staff has the potential to be in the top third of the league. It's inevitable, injuries will happen, but they have depth, and if you manage them well, they'll be fine. Don't be surprised if the pitching staff goes under the radar and shocks the rest of the world this year.

The Dynamic Duo have brought a creativity towards acquiring prospects that even Terry Ryan who was the master of acquiring prospects never thought of.
The first example is one of my favorites.  With Ohtani on the market and notifying the Twins they would not be one of the finalists for his services Falvine went and traded their extra international spending cap space for 2 prospects.  They traded 1 million in cap space to the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles for Pearson a 2nd round draft pick and OF.  The Twins also traded 1 million in cap space to the Mariners of Seattle for David Banuelos a 5th round draft pick and C.  Banuelos is still with the Twins and in AAA.  I hope to see him get in some games with the Twins just to make these trades a success, But we got essentially 2 high draft picks for nothing.
Another example was in the draft when the Twins followed suit from the Astros example and saved money on Royce Lewis to be able to sign another draft pick in the third round who had first round talent.  Today Enlow is one of our top 30 prospects in the system and being creative is how we landed him.  Granted he lost some luster as a prospect because of the lost 2020 season then Tommy John surgery in 2021, but 2023 should be the year he bounces back from that completely so hopefully we have another mid rotation starter being developed here. 
The trade deadline sell off.  Lets face it we were all mad when the Twins threw In the towel and traded several fan favorite players at the time for prospects.  The 2 big names were RP Presley and IF Escobar.  We netted Alcala, Duran, and Celestino from those trades, however.  The trade of Berrios was unpopular as well and we received Martin and SWR.  2 of our top 15 prospects.  For Cruz we got Ryan and Strotman who was a top 30 prospect before regressing. 
As much as I didn’t like the sell offs I did like this next technique.  Making a trade and a little bit more…. When the Twins traded Lewin Diaz to Florida, they got Romo and a little bit more in prospect Valimont (who was a top 30 prospect before regressing).  He is no longer with the Twins but this is not the only example.  When the Twins traded Garver to the Rangers for their SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa the Twins got a little bit more with Henriquez who is a top 30 prospect.  With the trade for Lopez the Twins got a lot (little bit more) with Jose Salas a top 15 prospect and Byron Chorio which is essentially an extra international signing. 
I actually forgot this and am now adding but they also got Severino when the Braves were penalized for their international signing practices and the Twins were able to swoop in and sign Severino away from the Braves for 2.5 million.  This added another in and out top 30 Twins prospect.  As Seth Stohs points out he should be in AA next season and 1 year younger then the average player at that level.  He also had a high OPS last year.  
The one creative way that is missing is the Rule 5 draft.  A favorite of the last regime, but not used by this one.   I am also leaving out the waver wire because most of our acquisitions have not been prospects per se.  Also I don't remember the full details on acquiring Cave from the Yankees I think we gave up Gil who is a great prospect for the Yankees and I don't remember what we gave up for Littell either.  If i remember correctly he was also a pickup from a playoff sell off with the pitcher we had for a week going to New York.  we trade Hnoa to the Braves for that pitcher so essentially a three team trade of Hnoa for Littell and a start by the other pitcher.  
Overall from their creativity we have a #3 starter in Ryan, 2 RPs in Duran and Alcala, a back up OF in Celestino, and 5 of our current top 30 prospects ( Enlow, Salas, SWR, Martin, and Henriquez) and 1 just outside the top 30 in Severino.

The 2022 Minnesota Twins looked like they were destined for success. They had great chemistry and were winning ballgames, they looked closer to their 2019 form than the disappointing 2021 form we had seen the year prior. However, injuries started to take place and the ballclub started to lose games. As disappointing as this was, we got to see a bunch of new prospects. Promising flashes from players like Jose Miranda and Nick Gordon had us itching for 2023. Now that opening day is less than 60 days away, here are some realistic player goals for some Twins Hitters. 
Byron Buxton 
Buxton’s career has always been riddled with health questions. He has played in over 100 games once, and that was back in 2018 when he played 140 games. The results were favorable as he won the Gold Glove and stole 28 bases. Last year we saw the best year of Buxton’s career, as he was named an AL All-Star, had a 138 OPS+, and actually gained some national recognition. The problem? He played in 92 games. If Buxton stays healthy, he is a consensus top-10 player and a huge part of the Twins' success.
Goals: Show you can stay healthy and play in 120 games, 80 of them in CF. Maintain an OPS of over .800 and hit 30 home runs.

Carlos Correa 
The Twins signed Correa to essentially a one-year contract last offseason, and expectations were set high. Correa struggled in the first two months, posting a .633 OPS. Was it the cold? The new home and clubhouse? Just a random bad stretch? Who knows, but he quickly recovered and played like a high-level All-Star for the rest of the season. Now that Correa is here long term, he should be one of the ultimate factors to the Twins success not only this year but in the next five.
Goals: Prove that you are worth over 30 million. Finish top 10 in MVP voting and be a finalist for Gold Glove. Help develop and mentor young guys like; Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, Brooks Lee, and Edouard Julien.
Jose Miranda 
Although he was never a top-of-the-line prospect, Miranda had a lot of excitement last year after his breakout 2021 season. Miranda was called up in May and, well, let’s just say he struggled. He posted a .532 OPS and eventually got sent back down to AAA. When he got another shot in June, he didn’t put it to waste. Miranda impressed in June, then impressed even more in July, and remained a steady anchor for the Twins lineup for the rest of the year. Miranda showed very promising flashes in 2022 and if he continues to develop, he should be a core part of this franchise for years to come. 
Goals: Show that you can stay at the hot corner. Prove yourself as a 4-5 hitter in the lineup and post a .780 OPS.
Alex Kirilloff
The former first-round pick had a lot of questions heading into the 2022 season. Will he stay healthy? The ultimate answer was no. Kirilloff has had constant injury issues, specifically ones with his wrist. If AK can stay healthy, he can cement himself as a key piece into the unproven Twins outfield. 
Goals: Prove that your wrist won’t be an issue in the future. Play in 100 games this year and prove that you have your power back by hitting 15 home runs. Post an OPS of over .780 and show that you belong in the future of this team.

Joey Gallo 
Joey Gallo was a star in Arlington, and he didn’t start to decline until his trade to New York. Some blame it on the pressure of a big market team. If this is true, Gallo could have a huge comeback season. So far, it seems like Gallo is enjoying Minnesota. If he can control his strikeouts and utilize the shift ban, he can be put back on the map for MLB stars.
Goals: Be the person you were in Texas. Be flexible on defense as you may see some 1B. Maintain a .200 average, have an OPS+ of over 100, and hit 30 Home Runs.
Nick Gordon 
Gordon was almost forgotten about as a prospect as some major injuries derailed him from stardom. Once a top prospect, he had a ton of upside, especially with his speed. Gordon got a ton of opportunities all over the field and proved himself clutch late in the season. Now with a guaranteed shot in the big leagues, Gordon finds himself with an opportunity to become a full-time big league player. 
Goals: Keep your OPS+ above league average and steal 10 bases. Prove to be more level at the plate: raise your BB% and try to minimize your strikeouts.
Royce Lewis 
Lewis was the first overall pick for the Minnesota Twins back in 2017. Lewis thrived until his 2019 season when he had his first down year. He rebounded winning AFL MVP in late 2019. Due to the canceled 2020 MiLB season and an ACL tear in 2021, Lewis had to be sidelined for two years. Finally getting back on the field in 2022, Lewis Dazzled in AAA and got a call-up. He rocketed past his expectations and looked like that first overall pick that we had seen prior. After suffering his second ACL tear in two years, Lewis is set to come back sometime in the mid-summer and has a chance to prove himself as a big-league player. 
Goals: Stay healthy through the 2023 season. Show that your 2022 stint wasn’t a fluke. Have an OPS+ over league average and a positive OAA. Show that you still have your speed and steal at least five bases.
 
These goals may be a bit aggressive, but I feel like these players have a lot to prove in 2023. Correa said he wanted to build a dynasty in Minnesota, and these players get to decide if that comes true this season.
This is my first blog post with Twins Daily, so please give some feedback! Keep your eyes peeled for 2023 Pitcher Goals. Thank you!

The St. Louis Cardinals non-tendered their once top prospect; since then, there has been little news regarding Alex Reyes. The former all-star has seen a lack of reported interest so far in free agency and could be a fit for any team looking for relief help, meaning every team. There are several reasons to and not to sign Alex Reyes. I want to examine his current outlook to see if he is a fit for the Minnesota Twins. 
Feature Image Via Jeff Curry - USA Today Sports 
The first thing you notice about Alex Reyes when you look at his career is injuries, injuries, injuries. And more injuries. Health has not been a blessing Reyes’ has received in his career and was likely the reason the Cardinals gave up on him. Reyes crossed the 20-inning threshold just twice in his career, in 2016 and 2021. Most recently, he missed all of 2022 due to a shoulder injury. His injuries prior to 2021 didn’t seem to impact his stuff much, but every injury is different. It is unknown whether or not he can be the same pitcher he was two years ago. Given his health track record, it is more likely he doesn’t pitch at all than he gives you innings, and it is very valid that teams are concerned about this. 
The other major concern with Alex Reyes is his control. His raw stuff can compare with the best in baseball but where it’s going is a different story. In his lone full season in 2021, he had the second-highest BB% and second-highest BB/9 in all of baseball. He also had 10 wild pitches in 2021, which would have ranked fifth among qualified starting pitchers. Alex Reyes, a reliever, pitched over 100 fewer innings than his counterparts in that category. His command issues track back to his early minor league days, so it’s likely this problem never goes away. 
So what about the good stuff? He walks everyone, and we have one season to base our entire case to bring him in; what’s the upside? As mentioned before, Reyes was an all-star in 2021, and for good reason. According to Baseball Savant, he was 95th percentile in xBA, 94th percentile in xSLG, 91st percentile in Barrel%, 95th percentile in whiff%, and 87th percentile in K%. Reyes is effective against both left-handed and right-handed hitters as well. Versus lefties, he had a .155 batting average against and a 26.9% K%; versus righties, he had a .195 batting average against and a 33.1 K%. He served as the Cardinals’ primary closer and recorded 29 saves for a team that won 90 games.
His fastball routinely crests triple digits, but I want to focus on his best pitch, his slider. Reyes has maybe the best slider in all of baseball. In 2021, among pitchers with 100 PA against, his slider generated the lowest RV/100 (run value per 100 pitches*) in all of baseball at -3.8, just ahead of Jacob deGrom. It finished top ten in batting average against (3rd .089), SLG against (9th .222), wOBA against (7th .196), swing and miss% (2nd 55.8%), and K% (2nd 56.9%). This is one of the most devastating pitches in all of baseball. 
Alex Reyes is about as big of a risk as you can take on a player. With his persistent command issues and colossal injury history, this could blow up as much as any reliever signing could (shoutout Joel Zumaya). Fortunately, Reyes isn’t set to make much, his arbitration projection, according to MLB Trade Rumors, was just under three million, so a one-year deal for two to three million would make sense. If the Twins were to pull this off, they would likely have a second-year option attached to it. Reyes might have the best stuff out of any Twins reliever, including Jhoan Duran. If Alex Reyes can stay healthy, he could be one of the most dominant relievers in Major League Baseball. 
 
*Run Value: http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/article/run-values-by-pitch-count
 
 
 

Ok, I am curious what your individual hopes are for the rest of the offseason, prior to opening day. What other moves or changes are you still hoping for, if anything.
*I will preface this by saying, hoping for a healthy roster doesn't need to be one of the ideas. That is one that everyone should hope for every player on every team, let alone your home team/favorite team that you cheer for.
 
Ok, if I am going to pick a few things that I want to have happen prior to opening day, here is how I would play out the rest of the offseason. 
1) Extend Tyler Mahle. I really do think he is an arm that you build with/build around. I'm hopeful for a 4 or 5 year extension. 
2) Acquire at least one more reliever who is setup level good. Someone who can slot in at least as a 7th inning (historically) level good. Bringing Fulmer back would work, but I'd be open to any number of the relievers still on the free agent market or via trade. If they want to bring in more than one guy at this level, great!
3) I still think they could use one more right-handed power bat. I will preface this by adding that I'm not truly in love with Voit or Gurriel on the free agent market, and I don't even truly have a name to go after via trade, but my hope would be it could be someone who could play either 1b/3b or a corner outfield spot occasionally. I'll also say that, I still believe there are too many guys on the 40 man who are left-handed hitters who would fit into this description, but I'd prefer someone with more of a track record. (IF you have a target on who this would work for, I'd love to hear it.) And no, Miguel Sano is not an option for me for this answer.
 
 

I cannot claim original ownership of this, I merely stumbled across this the other day.  However as we embark across another Spring with thousands of players readying themselves for the most humbling game I know of on this earth, I thought I would like to say a small prayer for our boys.  Not just our beloved Twins, but ALL young men who's drive and passion for this game bring us such profound and indelible feeling, emotions, and memories.  "God is in the details". A phrase that to this day holds a place preeminent in the baseball pantheon of lore.   My son's favorite phrase is Philippians 4:13 (it's even stitched into his glove).  
I realize that not everyone feels the same way, and I immensely respect that.  Faith is a truly personal journey and must be for each and everyone one of us to approach and accept in our own way.  To me, this is why faith is such an immense part of the game.  A person may choose to not be part of God, but God will never choose to NOT be part of us and the game.  He is simply part of the fabric of the game and life that makes it what it is.
"I can do all things through Christ, who strengthens me"
Php 4:13

"Baseball means dealing with failure. “There is more Met than Yankee in all of us,” as Roger Angell has poignantly wrote in The Summer Game.
Every person who has ever played the game of baseball has been a consistent failure. It has been more than 70 years since the Splendid Splinter, Ted Williams, finished the 1941 baseball season with a .406 batting average. Williams' failure rate of 60 percent means that he failed less often than any batter in the seven subsequent decades. In fact, only five other players in the live ball era (since 1920) have matched the success of his 60 percent failure rate. Babe Ruth, known for hitting 714 home runs, struck out 1,330 times in his Major League Baseball career. The Cy Young Award is baseball's most coveted honor for the game's best pitcher each season, yet the award's namesake lost 316 games as a major league pitcher.
Even the unofficial anthem of baseball, “Take Me Out to the Ballgame,” is a celebration of hope in the midst of managed failure. Singing “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” during the 7th inning stretch is a communal baseball rite of passage. Timothy A. Johnson notes how the song celebrates failure both musically and lyrically, “Instead of celebrating a run or a victory, the song celebrates the act of striking out, the batter’s utter failure. He continues, “There is no spectacular hit to drive in runners—no heroic walk-off home run, no victory for the home team—and the structural melodic line . . . aptly reflects this failure. Striking out is represented musically in a deep structural way, by the failure of the melodic line to reach it’s rightful goal—it’s home, it’s origin—through a proper descent to the tonic” (“I Never Get Back: How ‘Take Me Out to the Ballgame’ Succeeds in Celebrating Failure,” The National Pastime [2008], 143).
The reality that baseball is a game of managed failure for every player, even the great ones, is one of the reasons the game imbedded so deeply in the fabric of American culture. Baseball became the national pastime because it reflected the national character—a collective team endeavor that called consistently for individual responsibility and personal sacrifice for the greater good. John Updike asserted that baseball is “an essentially lonely game.” Once the batting order is set, there is nowhere to hide; a turn at the plate is coming. The fact that the whole team is counting on the each batter produces the possibility of personal exultation or humiliation. Unlike other youth sports, baseball doesn't permit a game to be dominated by a star player whose teammates are simply along for the ride.
I fear that one of the reasons for the waning popularity of baseball in American culture is not because the game has changed, but because we have changed. It takes time and patience to understand the game of baseball, and becoming a proficient player is difficult—very difficult. Natural physical gifting and innate athleticism are not predictors of baseball success. In fact, the baseball Hall of Fame extols the virtues of the game's greatest players, and the shocking reality is not the amazing size, strength, and speed of the game's heroes, but the almost comical diversity of body type and physical ability. The game's greatest players have been tall and short, skinny and fat, slow and fast, muscular and flabby, intelligent, and well, not so intelligent. But, they all have one thing in common; every one of them developed the emotional capacity to persevere in the face of frequent, chronic failure and occasional humiliation.
If my suppositions are correct, what was once seen as a part of the glory of baseball, learning to persevere in the face of consistent failure, is now perceived to be a reason to avoid the game. Parents simply looking for ways to keep their children busy and happy will choose sports that do not include the pressure and individualized responsibility that baseball has always demanded. Baseball requires a kind of moral courage that keeps persisting in the face of inevitable repeated personal failures. That is the sober, unalterable reality for Miguel Cabrera and every little leaguer as well. Thus, baseball demands a huge time commitment for fathers, not simply in teaching and repetitively practicing the fundamentals of the game, but also calling sons to the kind of moral courage the game demands. Rarely ever will a boy persist in baseball if his dad has little interest in the game. As Diana Schaub avers in her essay “America at Bat,” “Without fathers, there is no baseball, only football and basketball.”
Baseball does not fit well with the current trend of sports leagues that do not keep score and where the goal is for everyone to be successful and know that they are always a winner. Such a notion does violence to a game that is structurally committed to constant reminders of the participant's finitude and allows no room for such utopian fantasies. One of the reasons baseball has been so slow to embrace instant replay in the sport (and rightly so) is that a game marked by chronic managed failure propagates no delusions of human perfectionism in its players or its umpires. When a baseball purist asserts, “Bad calls are a part of the game,” he is saying something about the warp and woof of the game.
Only genuine baseball fans understood the reaction of Detroit Tigers pitcher Armando Galarraga during the 2010 baseball season when he was one out from throwing a perfect game (there have only been 23) and veteran umpire Jim Joyce made one of the worst big moment calls in baseball history. Joyce, inexplicably, called the batter safe at first base. When the next batter was retired, Galarraga was saddled with the most disappointing one hitter in the history of the game. How did Galarraga respond to the injustice? When it happened he offered a stunned grin and after the game he said, “He is human. Nobody's perfect…. I want to tell him not to worry about it.” That moment was a beautiful window into what makes baseball unique.
No baseball player can survive and thrive without hope. When Henry Aaron was asked if he arrived at the ballpark every day knowing he would get two hits his reply was, “No. What I do know is that if I don't get 'em today, I'm sure going to get 'em tomorrow.” Babe Ruth was fond of saying, “Every strike gets me closer to the next home run.” Persistent, daily plodding in the face of chronic managed failure, driven by future hope sounds a lot like my daily Christian walk."
The Apostle Paul wrote, “For I do not understand my own actions. For I do not do what I want, but I do the very thing I hate” (Romans 7:15). But he went on to write, “Thanks be to God through Jesus Christ our Lord! … There is therefore now no condemnation for those who are in Christ Jesus” (Romans 7:25a, 8:1). The reality of his persistent failure and limitations did not paralyze him because he knew his story fit into a larger picture of the story of Christ. In the Kingdom of Christ, “all things work together for good, for those who are called according to his purpose” and those who love God are being conformed to the image of Christ (Romans 8:28-29).
As players prepare for Opening Day, every one of them knows perfection is impossible. No team will win 162 games; no one will bat 1.000, and no regular starting pitcher will go undefeated. Nevertheless, they practice with a sense of hope that this just might be their year. Despite their constant failure, if they keep stepping up to the plate and heading out to their position in the field, it all might work together for something special, and if not, there is always next year.
The very existence of another baseball season, another 162-game, seven-month exercise in hopeful, managed failure is a faint echo of the glorious promise James offers to all who have put their faith in the Lord Jesus Christ: “Count it all joy, my brothers, when you meet trials of various kinds, for you know that the testing of your faith produces steadfastness” (James 1:2-3). Everyone has the tendency to compare the highlight reel of others' successes to our daily failures and lose heart. But baseball, for those of us who love it, provides a constant reminder that everyone (even the superstar) strikes out, but the game still goes on.
Like most years, I think this just might be the year for my beloved Atlanta Braves to win it all. But whether they do or not, I am thankful that the chill of winter is giving way to spring and umpires will soon yell, “Play Ball!” Angell was right, “There is more Met than Yankee in all of us,” and there is a glimmer of a greater glory that the Mets keep taking the field.

Coming into the 2023 Major League Baseball season we have seen plenty of graduations from the top of the Minnesota farm system. Players like Joe Ryan and Jose Miranda are now fully entrenched as big leaguers. With another year removed from the season wiped out by Covid, we have more development having taken place on the farm.
As the Twins head to Fort Myers in a matter of weeks, they will be looking for their youth to again be well positioned to supplement the big league club. Rocco Baldelli’s team is looking to compete in the AL Central this year, and there will at least be a name or two from this group that helps them to do so.
With the last update to this prospect list coming more than a year ago, it’s time for a refresh. Previous rankings can be found below:
2016 Top 15 Prospects
2017 Top 15 Prospects
2018 Top 15 Prospects
2019 Top 15 Prospects
2020 Top 15 Prospects
2021 Top 15 Prospects
2022 Top 15 Propsects
15. Tanner Schobel
A second round pick from Virginia Tech last season, Schobel made his professional debut and spent the bulk of his time at Low-A Fort Myers. In just shy of 30 games he posted a .670 OPS and showed a very strong set of on-base skills. He had a power breakout for the Hokies prior to being drafted, but this is more a solid bat and good fielder than anything.]
14. Matt Canterino RHP
Canterino has appeared all over this list in recent seasons. He threw 37 innings last season before needing Tommy John surgery. At this point he shouldn’t be starting, but he could certainly blossom into a late-inning reliever once returning to a clean bill of health.
13. David Festa RHP
Continuing to creep up prospect lists, Festa’s 2.43 ERA in more than 100 innings last year was impressive. It was his first real season of professional ball and the strikeout rates were nice to see. Festa looked the part of a legit starter at High-A Cedar Rapids, and continuing down that path this season for Double-A Wichita could have him positioned to debut in 2023.
12. Edouard Julien INF
The only reason that Julien isn’t higher on this list is that he’s extremely limited defensively. Julien tore up Double-A for Wichita posting a .931 OPS, and he continued to impress in the Arizona Fall League. There is a very good bat here, and it flashes with both on-base skills and power.
11. Louie Varland RHP
Making his Major League debut for the Twins last season, Varland continues to climb the prospect ranks. His ceiling may not be that of a number two pitcher, but he looks to be a number four at worst and can continue to develop a bit more. This has been an incredible success story.
10. Matt Wallner OF
Wallner made it to the big leagues last year, and it was largely because of changes he made at the plate. His arm has always been solid in the outfield, but reigning in the free-swinging profile to draw more walks and focus on doing damage was huge. There is Brent Rooker downside here, but patience has changed his trajectory some.
9. Yasser Mercedes OF
It’s hard to extrapolate too much from the teenagers playing during the Dominican Summer League, but Mercedes looks special. He posted a .975 OPS and did so with both average and on-base skills to his credit. He looks the part of a toolsy outfielder, and if the bat continues to play, this is a prospect that will keep rising the ranks.
8. Austin Martin INF/OF
It’s pretty clear that Martin is no longer a shortstop, and while he could play either second or third base, he may be best suited for the outfield. After failing to harness power Minnesota was trying to tap into, Martin’s stock could again rise by simply reverting to pure hitter tendencies. He’s not the can’t miss prospect that the Twins acquired from Toronto, but there is a big leaguer here.
7. Simeon Woods Richardson RHP
Acquired alongside Martin in the Jose Berrios trade, Woods Richardson made it to the show first. He distanced himself from the setback that was 2021, and looks the part of a Major League rotation piece. Woods Richardson should get plenty of run at Triple-A this season, and he’ll see time with Minnesota again as well.
6. Jose Salas SS
Part of Minnesota’s return for Luis Arraez from the Miami Marlins, Salas has plenty of unpredictability going forward. As he matures and grows, he could slide to second or third base, but he also profiles as an extremely talented offensive player. Just 19, Salas did post a .723 OPS across two levels of Single-A last season.
5. Marco Raya RHP
A fourth round pick back in 2020, Raya made his professional debut in 2022 after finally being healthy. His 3.05 ERA at Low-A Fort Myers paired nicely with a 10.5 K/9, and his stuff has always looked like he could be a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. More development for a kid that is just 20-years-old is needed, but there is plenty to be excited about here.
4. Connor Prielipp LHP
Taken in the 2022 draft, Prielipp had the makings of a first round pick before undergoing surgery. He likely represents Minnesota's best prospect chance at an ace, and he could conceivably be a top-100 prospect nationally by this time next year. The stuff is special, and doing it as a southpaw makes him that much more valuable.
3. Emmanuel Rodriguez OF
Playing in Low-A at just 19, Rodriguez turned heads in a big way last year. His 1.044 OPS in the Florida State League was jaw-dropping, and it was only injury that slowed him down. He should be healthy coming into 2023, and there is no reason another strong season couldn’t vault him into the top 25 of prospects lists.
2. Brooks Lee SS
Drafted for his hit tool, Lee did exactly that during his professional debut. He batted .303 with an .839 OPS and made it all the way to Double-A in year one. There is no reason why Lee can’t play for the Twins as early as this year, and he looks to be among the most polished players from any recent draft class.
1. Royce Lewis SS
Making his big league debut in place of Carlos Correa last season, Lewis looked the part of an All-Star shortstop. Another unfortunate injury got him, but the production for the Twins was enough to drool over. It has never seemed wise to doubt Lewis, but his ceiling remains as high as it has ever been.

Since Arreaz was traded for Lopez and a top 100 prospect and a lotto ticket prospect.  There are lots of people here writing how disappointed they were.  I am disappointed even though I know the trade was a good one.  With so many people not happy how will that affect the Twins and for how long?  Is there a bell curve to show how team revenues or attendance changes after popular players leave the organization after a trade?  Do the TV ratings drop as well?   I am sure some players wont change the needle much but could there be a drop of say 2500 in attendance for a month or two until the Twins are able to take a commanding lead in the Central division?  that could be a net drop in attendance close to 100,000.  would that affect us in 2024 payroll in some capacity?  What other factors would come into play in this calculation.  It just seems like there is something there that isn't being quantified or used in the trade valuation calculations.  Knowing this could help the front office make trades that not only help the talent level but increase the Team and Fan Morale as well.  
Another way to look at this.  is can the front office through marketing surveys know the popularity of a player and assign a WAR or some unit of value that can be used in negotiations for a trade.  
Another player example would be Joe Mauer.  How would we value him as a fan favorite over other players in a potential trade scenario?  I mean the front office never considered trading Joe because of the Fan Favorite value.  so how do we measure it so it can be useful in trade negotiations?

On December 10th, it was announced that a few Twins had changed their jersey numbers. Trevor Larnach from 13 to 9, Emilio Pagán from 12 to 15, Kyle Farmer from 17 to 12, Bailey Ober from 16 to 17, and Griffin Jax 65 to 22.
This is nothing out of the ordinary; a few players each offseason on any team will request a number change for one reason or another. However, this time, something peculiar happened shortly thereafter.
Joey Gallo was signed less than a week later, and he claimed the 13 number, his number in Texas and New York, which had conveniently been vacated by Larnach. Is this a coincidence? My money is on no; it's incredibly meaningful.
I did exactly what you have come to expect from old Gregg--I've scoured the list of remaining MLB free agents to see what this might mean for the rest of the offseason, and it leaves more questions than answers. Here are my findings:
#9 (Taken by Trevor Larnach)
The only remaining free agent who wears 9 is Dee Strange-Gordon, Nick Gordon's half-brother. Might there be a rift between Larnach and Gordon now that he's preventing his big brother playing for Minnesota? Probably. It's a good thing that Correa is back to try to help keep the locker room intact. Between this and fighting over left field playing time, things could get ugly.
#12 (Vacated by Emilio Pagán; Taken by Kyle Farmer)
Farmer really stepped on Pagán's toes here. It looks like Emilio may have been trying to open the door for Rougned Odor to don a Twins jersey, which makes sense given his history of sucker-punching opponents who homers off his pitchers. Having Odor at second base would definitely help keep Pagán's homerun numbers in check. Watch for a rift between these two teammates as well.
#15 (Taken by Emilio Pagán)
It's been a rough 24 hours in Twins territory with the last two #15 free agents signing elsewhere in Raimel Tapia and Brian Anderson. When will the team finally pull the trigger on the guys they really want?
#16 (Vacated by Bailey Ober)
This was the spot that showed the most promise, though with Trey Mancini coming off the board this week, the remaining pool is thin in Cesar Hernandez and Travis Jankowski. I would bet that the Twins were more in on Mancini than suggested, given that they clearly forced Ober to change numbers to attract him.
#17 (Taken by Bailey Ober)
Ober apparently looked Chris Archer in the eyes and said "This town ain't big enough for two five-and-dives" and took his number, preventing his return. Go get 'em, Bailey!
#22 (Taken by Griffin Jax)
Learned men like me know that there was no shot of the Twins getting Andrew McCutchen with this stunt pulled. Think of the team, Griffin!
This also rains on Jeremy Nygaard's hopes to bring back Miguel Sanó. Surely the big man wouldn't come back if he couldn't get his number back from a relief pitcher. To make matters worse, this also eliminates Robinson Canó from contention. Sure, he switched his number for Roger Clemens in New York, but Jax is no Rocket; he's Air Force, not Space Force.
This also removes Luis Torrens as an option. Sad day for those of you with Luis Torrens on your offseason bingo card.
#65 (Vacated by Griffin Jax)
There isn't even a potential free agent with Griffin's old number. So selfish.

With Kyle Garlick being dfa'd and Gilberto Celestino being far from reliable, who should the Minnesota Twins have as their bench outfielder? Free agent options such as A.J. Pollock and Andrew McCutchen have signed elsewhere; options are becoming thin for the Twins. Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham are available, but both are 34 years old and could be nearing the end of their time in the Big Leagues. I want to look at one option still in-house that could fill this role for 2023 that would be a practical choice for Minnesota; Max Kepler. 
Cover Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Yes, I am aware that Kepler hits left-handed. However, Kepler held his own against lefties in 2022; he had a 98 wRC+ in left-on-left matchups. I don't think a right-handed bat is as big of a need as the presumption is; Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Ryan Jeffers, and Jose Miranda should all serve as plus bats against left-handed pitching. It seems inevitable that the Twins will trade Kepler this offseason, but if they don't, there is no reason he can't be a very serviceable outfielder off the bench. Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Byron Buxton have all missed significant time the last two seasons due to injuries, so the Twins should be cautious to pencil in any of those guys for 150+ games. Kepler provides elite defense in RF, amassing a very impressive 46 DRS (defensive runs saved) and 51 OAA (outs above average) throughout his career; he should be comparable in LF as well. Kepler has also held his own in CF throughout his career. In just over 1,100 innings in CF, he has recorded 2 DRS and 8 OAA in his time there. Certainly a few steps below Buxton, but nobody is at that level.  
The frustration with Kepler from Twins fans has not come from his defense. Many point to a low batting average as a sign that Kepler has been an underwhelming hitter, but I do not believe that is the case. While not reaching the heights his batted ball data would suggest he is capable of, Kepler gives value in other ways at the plate. He borders on having both elite plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. This shows with Kepler ranking in the 88th percentile in K% and 84th percentile in BB% in 2022. He was also tied with Yordan Alvarez for 17th in BB/K rate among hitters with 400 plate appearances. 
Kepler could make some batted-ball adjustments as well. According to Statcast, in 2022, Kepler's ground ball% was 46.6% (league average 44.9%), a massive 8.9% jump from 37.7% in 2021. His flyball% dropped to 24.5%, down from 28.1% in 2021 (league average 23.1%), his lowest flyball% since 2017. As I'm sure you are familiar, Kepler is a very pull heavy hitter, ranking in the 74th percentile in pull% among hitters with 250 plate appearances in 2022 despite this being his lowest pull% since 2017. Unfortunately pulling ground balls is one of the least effective ways to get hits. In 2019, Kepler had his second-lowest career ground ball% at 35.9% and his highest career flyball% at 29.8%; if Kepler starts hitting the ball in the air again instead of on the ground, there may be a lot more room for improvement. 
I don't think Kepler should be a middle-of-the-order hitter, but that's what he has been for the last few years on the Twins. In part because of a career year in 2019 and in part due to necessity because of injuries. Throughout his Major League career, Kepler has taken over two-thirds of his plate appearances in one of the top 5 spots in the lineup despite being only a 101 wRC+ hitter. If Kepler is hitting seventh or eighth in the lineup, he is a much better fit. Even last season, a down year by almost all metrics, Kepler finished with a 95 wRC+, five percent worse than the league average. It is important to mention injuries got to him as well, as he put up a 116 wRC+ in the first half of the season and a 33 wRC+ in the second half, where he was playing much of it through foot and wrist injuries. Kepler can consistently put together quality at-bats and is very capable of hard contact; this makes for an ideal fit for a bench player who can play every day if (when) someone gets injured. 
I want to touch on a very underrated part of Kepler's game; his base running. Only once in his career has Kepler had a negative BsR season by Fangraphs, and it was in 2019 when he had his best season at the plate. I do think there is more base-stealing upside for Kepler. Although he only has 33 career stolen bases, hitting more toward the bottom of the lineup could make him more willing to run. He will not have hitters like Nelson Cruz or Carlos Correa hitting behind him, making the risk of stealing less penalizing. He does have 64th percentile sprint speed and stole ten bases in 2021. Under the right conditions, I think he has 20 SB potential. 
In totality, it seems that it is only a matter of time until Max Kepler is no longer a Twin. Still, it is worth considering the possibility of reducing his role and hanging onto him. For one, he is already under contract for 7 million, the same amount as A.J. Pollock received and only two million more than Andrew McCutchen. Kepler is a much better player than either of those two at this point in their careers. He has a team option for 10 million in 2024 as well. Kepler has been a remarkably consistent player year to year for the Twins, never having a season below 2.0 fWAR and never having a season below 93 wRC+. For reference, Nick Gordon impressed many people last year but only put up 1.5 fWAR in 2022. While frustrations have grown watching him hit in the middle of a lineup undeservingly, it's not fair to fault Kepler for that. If he can serve as a fourth outfielder and hit more toward the bottom of the lineup, I think Kepler still has a place on the Minnesota Twins this year and next. If they can land a good return for him, the front office will not hesitate to pull the trigger, but they shouldn't treat him as a salary dump. He isn't making very much, and he still has a skillset to help a team win games.
 

The Minnesota Twins have recently re-signed Carlos Correa if you have yet to hear. Re-sparked trade rumors surrounding Max Kepler and Luis Arraez are swirling. I understand packaging these two players to acquire a high-end starting pitcher. I would have to be mesmerized by a deal to trade Arraez. His abilities and skillset are too unique.
Here are the top 10 comparisons on baseball-reference.com and when they played Major League Baseball.
Fred Tenney (1894 – 1909 and 1911)
Jo-Jo Moore (1930 – 1941)
Roger Bresnahan (1897 and 1900 – 1915)
Ethan Allen (1926 – 1938)
Arnold Statz (1919 – 1928)
Sam West (1927 – 1942)
Tony Gwynn (1982 – 2001)
Jim O'Rourke (1872 – 1893)
Gene Robertson (1919 – 1930)
Rich Rollins (1961 – 1970)
Of the ten players listed, three are Hall of Famers, and one, Tony Gwynn, is considered by many to be one of the purest hitters of the 1980s and 1990s.
Let's also notice each of these player comparisons eras. Some, like Jim O'Rourke, played in the Pre-1900 era when overhand pitching became legalized in 1872. The rules we understand today were absent when Jim O'Rouke played. 
Others like Fred Tenney and Roger Bresnahan played in the Dead Ball Era between 1901-1920, when spitballs were allowed, and they used one ball per game. Fred Tenney and Roger Bresnahan probably could not even see the ball after their first at-bat.
Players like Jo-Jo Moore, Ethan Allen, Arnold Statz, Sam West, and Gene Robertson played in the Live Ball Era, which began in the 1920s and saw an increase in home runs and changes in the baseball ball used. 
Rich Rollins played in the Expansion Era when the number of teams in MLB expanded from 16 to 24.
And then there is Tony Gwynn. Compare Tony Gwynns and Luis Arraez through their age-25 season.
Luis Arraez: 

 
Tony Gwynn: 

If Luis Arraez has more plate appearances, he is right with Tony Gwynn for hits. Tony Gwynn had 559 hits in 1889 plate appearances. Arraez checks in with 444 hits in 1569 place appearances. 
When comparing Arraez to these players, it's clear that there's something very unique about him. Is he a unicorn in the modern game, and we have not seen a hitter like him not named Tony Gwynn since nearly the turn of the century? 
Is his skill set not well suited for the modern game, and he won't be able to sustain being the same player in the future? In other words, is his value at its all-time high?
Wouldn't it be fun to find out exactly what we are seeing? Is it Tony Gwynn 2.0 or Rich Rollings 2.0? Like everything in life, it's probably somewhere in between, but I want to watch it play out in a Twins uniform.

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that Blayne Enlow passed through waivers and has been outrighted to AA. I thought he might be part of a trade package or get picked up by a lesser team. Guess the FO knew better than I or many of us here did. I don't like everything they do but you have to give them props when they take a calculated risk and it works out. 

For months, there has been speculation that the Twins may trade Luis Arraez to bolster their rotation. The Twins need at least one controllable starter as they will lose three starters to free agency next season and could definitely use rotation help in 2023.
There are some baseball reasons to trade Arraez, as the Twins have a surplus of left-handed hitters who play corner positions in the infield and outfield. Bringing back Correa makes the infield even more crowded, and the looming additions of Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, and Royce Lewis make trading Arraez very reasonable on paper. 
However, if the Twins trade Luis Arraez, the price has to be right. Beyond his fantastic hitting and solid defense at first, Arraez means so much to the fanbase and clubhouse. If the Twins pull the trigger on an Arraez trade, it must bring back a true frontline starter. Otherwise, you're not getting nearly enough for such a special player and person. 
Arraez the Guy
Luis Arraez is fun. Fans love him, and his teammates seem to as well. He plays the game with vigor and joy, and his at bats are appointment-viewing. 
You could see his teammate's support for him when he was named an all-star, as they all celebrated with him and were thrilled to enjoy his moment with him. Like Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, he is at the heart and soul of this team. 
We’ve seen the front office emphasize character more since their failed signings of Lance Lynn and Josh Donaldson. Trading Arraez would be a costly departure from that emphasis. 
Arraez, while fun and joyful, is also the consummate professional who, in any interview, will emphasize that, while he enjoys his individual accolades, his top priority is helping the team win. 
The Twins' sparkplug isn't all talk, either. Arraez has shown a terrific work ethic during his time with the Twins. In fact, as I write this, he is in the Dominican Republic working on his craft with Nelson Cruz, which you can occasionally watch on Cruz’s Instagram. This work ethic has been vital in establishing himself as a premier hitter in the league after being overlooked as a prospect. 
This work ethic and baseball savvy enabled him to find a comfortable home at first base in 2022. Despite being small in stature for a first baseman, he was well above average there in 2022 by Defensive Runs Saved. That is extremely impressive because he had never played first base in the majors before that. His success at first base defensively is a testament to his willingness to do what he needs to do to help the Twins win. 
Arraez's character is exceptional, and the Twins will miss it if they trade him. 
Arraez the Ballplayer
Beyond the person, Luis Arraez, the player, is awesome. From his aforementioned first base defense to his batting title, he was hugely productive for the Twins in 2022. 
Arraez fulfilled his dream of winning a batting title and played in his first career All Star Game. We don’t always put that much value into those accomplishments alone in 2023, but advanced metrics confirm that he had a great season. 
The fan-favorite accumulated 3.2 fWAR and a wRC+ of 131, which means he was a 31% above league-average hitter. These topline numbers underscore a terrific player that any team would be lucky to have. Not only that, Fangraphs' Steamer projects him to just about repeat those numbers, projecting a 3.1 fWAR and 126 wRC+ 2023 season.
Digging deeper, Arraez tailed off in the second half of 2022 with a wRC+ of 106. His hamstring ailments, which could be an issue moving forward, held him back. On the flip side, his first-half performance, where he put up a 150 wRC+, indicates that a healthy Arraez can be an elite hitter.
Further, Arraez is your man with runners in scoring position. Arraez hit an unbelievable .366 with RISP in 2022. Success with RISP isn't usually indicative of future performance in these spots, but Arraez's success makes sense, given his approach.
To be clear, Arraez is not a perfect player. He has struggled to stay healthy, can only really play first base, and is a league-average hitter against lefties. 
These limitations are legitimate issues with Arraez, but his distinct style is helpful on a team that values slugging as much as the Twins. Beyond just his unusual style for the modern game, Arraez has been highly productive by any metric and should be coveted as a player. 
Arraez's Futrue with the Twins
Like everybody in Major League Baseball, everybody has a price that can be paid to trade for their services. In Arraez’s case, that price should be extremely high, and they should be asking for more than Pablo López, who the Twins reportedly have a strong interest in acquiring. 
If they are adamant about trading Arraez for a starting pitcher, they should bundle Arraez and a couple of good prospects to get a true frontline starter. It’s hard to predict trades, but some guys who could be available if they went that route could be Brandon Woodruff, Zac Gallen, or Nestor Cortes. 
We will see if any pitchers of that caliber become available before spring training, and if they do, the Twins would be sensible to trade Arraez for a true frontline starter. They cannot trade him for anything less. Before pulling the trigger on any Arraez trade, the front office must take stock of what he means to the fanbase and clubhouse, on and off the field.  
 

I believe that injuries to outfielders could be greatly reduced if the outfield padding at Target Field were replaced with high tech padding.  
One option would be to replace the existing padding with much thicker padding that has a layer of low density foam on the outside (facing the players) and thicker densities closer to the concrete wall. I have a mattress that came in a box that has this arrangement and believe that this approach could be adapted to baseball to cut the trauma from hitting the wall by 80% or more.
Or the Twins could borrow from Hollywood stunt people and use technology based on the air bags and crash mats that lets stunt people fall from high places without injury.  https://fall-pac.com/news/fall-protection-for-stunt-men/
Based on some rough math, I believe that for $500,000 of R&D, $1 million of manufacturing cost and $500,000 of installation costs, the Twins could have an outfield wall that could cut the injury rate by more than 50%, perhaps more than 90%.  This would be peanuts compared with the loss of value if Buxton gets injured on the current wall.  To me this is a lot like adding roll cages to race cars -- a small cost for a lot of safety.  
What value of WAR will be lost if Buxton gets injured by the wall?  And I firmly believe that Royce Lewis would not have been hurt at all last year by his wall collision if the high tech wall had been in place.  
One small side benefit would be a slight home field advantage -- balls that hit the padding would tend to stick and die there, not bounce back into the field of play.  The Twins players would develop expertise in dealing with that.  Players from other teams would have to learn how to adapt, like with the ivy at Wrigley.  Another side benefit would be that players could be more aggressive when they are near the wall, knowing that it is by far the safest wall on the planet.
I believe that eventually all teams will have this.  Why not get out in front of it and maybe even develop some patents to make other teams pay to get it?
 
 
 

Per Reports, the Twins have signed Carlos Correa to a 6 year, $200 million deal. The deal includes vesting options. 
 
502 plate appearances in year 6 - $25 million dollars for year 7. 
Total value can increase to $245 million if an 8th year happens. 
 
This is per Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic and Jeff Passan of ESPN. 
 
Reminder - This is pending a physical. 
 
What do people think?

We've reached the point in the offseason where the free agent market has dried up and - aside from Correa - there's no one left for the Twins to target.  If the Twins are looking to upgrade their roster prior to opening day, they will have to turn to the trade market. The front office of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have made numerous trades over the past couple of years, with mixed results. Giving up an aging Nelson Cruz to acquire Joe Ryan turned out to be an instant success. On the other hand, the acquisition of Emilio Pagan and Chris Paddack has been anything but. Given the amount of trades over the past five years, one of the most influential deals has flown under the radar: the 2018 Eduardo Escobar trade. 
Coming off of 2017, in which the Twins snuck into the wildcard after beating out the weak American League, the Twins looked to improve upon a young core consisting of players such as Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios. After the Twins got off to a poor start, they were not able to recover and found themselves sellers at the trade deadline. After all was said and done, the Twins traded Brian Dozier, Ryan Pressley and of course, Eduardo Escobar. 
In return for Escobar, the Twins received 3 players out of high A ball: 22 yr old Ernie De La Trinidad, 19 yr old Gabriel Maciel and 20 yr old Jhoan Duran.
At the time of the trade, Escobar was slashing .274/.338/.514 with an OPS+ of 129. With his defensive flexibility, he also provided the Diamondbacks with some much needed infield depth. Despite never taking the Diamondbacks to the playoffs, Escobar was solid during his time there. 
Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 2018 29 ARI NL 54 223 198 30 53 11 0 8 21 1 1 18 35 .268 .327 .444 .772 102 88 5 2 0 5 2 5/H   2019 30 ARI NL 158 699 636 94 171 29 10 35 118 5 1 50 130 .269 .320 .511 .831 111 325 8 3 0 10 3 *54/HD   2020 31 ARI NL 54 222 203 22 43 7 3 4 20 1 0 15 41 .212 .270 .335 .605 63 68 5 2 0 2 4 *5/D4   2021 32 ARI NL 98 400 370 50 91 14 3 22 65 1 0 29 85 .246 .300 .478 .778 107 177 1 0 0 1 1 54/H6 Over the course of roughly four years, Escobar posted a 102 OPS+ and a WAR of 5.6
Now on to the Twins.
Ernie De La Trinidad played in the Twins organization until 2021 and reached AA. Gabriel Maciel also played in the Twins organization until 2021 and reached A+ ball. 
As for Jhoan Duran, he was arguably the most beneficial player for the Minnesota Twins in 2022. 
Before looking at his stats, it's hard to miss his stuff. His fastball was the fastest in the MLB, averaging 100.8 MPH and topped out at 103.8. His famous "splinker" was also the fastest in the league at 96.4 MPH. On top of that, his 88 MPH curve held opposing batters to just a .120 batting average and has gotten a swing and a miss almost 50% of the time. 
As you dive into his underlying metrics, it just keeps getting better. 

His chase rates and K% are elite with 89 strikeouts over 67.2 innings pitched. Duran has also done an incredible job at throwing strikes with just 16 and a 2.1 BB/9. His chase% and whiff% are both 10% above league average. 
Duran excelled at keeping batter's exit velocity and barrel percentage low, as well as forcing a groundball more than 60 percent of the time. All of this allowed for Duran to have great home run rates, something the Twins struggled with in 2022. 
As a team, the Twins' bullpen ranked 18th in win probability added at +1.26. Duran alone had a +4.56 WPA, good for second out of all relivers this past year. While it may be hard to quantify, it's no understatement to say that Duran singlehandedly kept the bullpen afloat this past year. 
In terms of overall value, Duran had a 1.5 Fwar, which Fangraphs valued at 12 million dollars. In comparison, Eduardo Escobar posted a 4.9 Fwar during his time in Arizona. It is important to note that the Twins have Duran through at least the 2027 season and he should be a prime candidate for an extension. The Diamonbacks however, got less than four years with Escobar before trading him to the Brewers. 
While it is difficult to directly compare Escobar and Duran because of their different positions, the overall value and talent that Jhoan Duran will provide to the Twins seems likely to greatly exceed what Escobar provided to the Twins. 

Fan morale is at a low, and a part of that is the front office and their lack of spending and big moves. But when they make a move that clearly worked out for them, it is important to recognize and acknowledge it. 
Because of them, we get to watch Duran pitch for the next five years.  

Two and a half weeks after Carlos Correa agreed to terms with the Mets, he remains a free agent, and the Twins now seem to be re-entering the fray opportunistically. As the rumors of the Twins' serious renewed interest emerged this weekend, many Twins fans expressed that they no longer desire an improbable Correa-Twins reunion.
There are a few common arguments Twins fans against Twins pursuing a long-term deal with Correa use: he “wasn’t special in 2022,” he doesn’t want to be in Minnesota and is just “using us,” and that he’s a “damaged good.” Those arguments are all wrong or flawed.
Correa wasn’t that Good in 2022
This argument is the least common, but I’ve seen it enough that I had to address it. It’s an argument that largely hinges on batting average and RBIs, which we know are not great measures of offensive production. There is also a somewhat accurate perception that Correa wasn’t very “clutch” in 2022.
By any measure, Correa was awesome in 2022. Correa put up a 4.4 fWAR, 5.4 bWAR, and 140 wRC+- which means he was a 40% above league average hitter. That's a superstar, especially considering he plays a premium position very well and was the platinum glove winner in 2021.
Beyond his outstanding performance in 2022, Correa is projected to be even more productive in 2023, with Fangraphs steamer projecting him to put up a 5.7 fWAR season in 2023.
While these numbers are great, some Twins fans claim he wasn’t that clutch. That is partially true. His wRC+ with runners in scoring position in 2022 was 109, much lower than his outstanding 140 wRC+ on the season, but still 9% above league average. He also put up a 1.26 Win Probability Added, meaning that based on his situational production, he added 1.26 wins for the Twins in 2022.
If none of these advanced metrics do it for you and you still care more about RBI, Correa is 6th all-time in postseason RBI and is the active leader, 10 RBI ahead of Jose Altuve. That’s pretty good! Let’s hope he can add to his total as a Twin in 2023.
Sometimes it takes a deep dive to evaluate a player's production. That shouldn't be the case with Correa, but I hope my short analysis clarifies what should be obvious: Carlos Correa is an excellent ballplayer.
He’s Using the Twins/Doesn’t Want to be Here
I do not care if he might use the Twins for leverage in his Mets negotiations. A free agent is "using the Twins" until they are not. There's no way for the Twins to know if he is or isn't using them for leverage.
The only way to find out a free agent's intentions is to enter the negotiations in good faith and make strong offers, which the Twins reportedly did this weekend.
Now, there are two ways this could go. One way is that he signs with the Twins for around nine years and $275 million. Great. The Twins have signed a player with the early makings of a Hall of Fame resume, and he will play the remainder of his career in Minnesota.
This outcome could be an issue if a player who is unhappy to be in Minnesota doesn’t buy in and is just upset about how free agency went. We've seen that be an issue before, as Minnesota is rarely players' number-one destination in free agency.
These concerns are unfounded with Correa. By all accounts, Correa was a great teammate and member of the organization in 2022. This was on essentially a one-year deal after his free agency was a huge disappointment. So, we have to imagine that his leadership and “buy-in” would be as good or even better after signing to be with the Twins for the rest of his career.
Alternatively, and far more likely, the Twins' offer will allow Correa to get more money from the Mets or more favorable terms around his ankle injury. That outcome is acceptable too. Given how great he was as a leader and teammate in 2022, I’m happy for the Twins to help him to get a better deal, and I won’t be sad about him holding Steve Cohen’s feet to the fire, either.
Either way, the Twins re-engaging and maybe "being used" is completely fine. Hopefully, it results in him signing with the Twins, but the alternative that he gets a better deal does not negatively affect the Twins at all.
Damaged Good
First off, no baseball player is a damaged good. They are baseball players, but they are also human beings. They are not goods.
It is, however, extremely reasonable to be concerned about the Twins potentially signing long-term a player whose medicals have caused two big market teams to rethink their major free agent signing. I am especially sympathetic to this argument, given how injuries derailed the 2022 season.
The Twins saw his medical last year, though. And while they weren’t evaluating his ankle for a long-term deal, they should at least have some idea of what is going on with his ankle. Given that he missed no time for the injury in 2022, it’s hard to imagine the situation has changed that much. If the repaired ankle has deteriorated, the Twins will at least be able to see an MRI before actually signing Correa.
I am also hopeful that with a new training staff that will bring a new approach, the Twins generally will manage injuries better and have fewer and shorter injuries in 2023. They should have full faith in the new training staff they brought in to properly deal with Correa's ankle as best as possible.
While I also don’t feel great about Correa’s health, I am hopeful that if the Twins sign him, they know what they are signing up for and are ready to handle it.
Another aspect of the failed physicals is that they may provide the Twins a rare opportunity to sign an elite player in free agency. There will never be a perfect free agent, and if there were, they wouldn’t likely choose the Twins. So, the Twins are correct to try to take advantage of this rare opportunity, even if it’s a massive risk on the health front.
At the end of this saga, it seems that Correa will more than likely be a Met. If that's the case, it won't have affected the Twins that he "used" them at all. If he does end up in Minnesota, Twins fans should embrace the risk they will have taken and be excited that the Twins will have an elite player for most of the next decade.