Supfin99

No way I would trade him now. Saying he has a 4 ERA is a little misleading. He’s been a sub 4 ERA pitcher in all 3 of his full seasons with an ERA + of 112 to 122. Only 2 outliers were his 1st year getting his feet wet and last season. His career stats are skewed somewhat by a very rough beginning to his career. I’d rather have a proven sub 4 guy that only never misses a start for the season and 2 thirds. We can still get a draft pick for him then. Twins are going to contend this season and next and will need a pitcher like Berrios.

There is still plenty of time to make moves. I like that the Twins are waiting out the market. Especially in the bullpen where year to year performance is so hard to predict. I believe there is a very good chance that teams that struck early like Mets for May and White Sox for Hendricks and Astros for Báez are going to be very disappointed when they see what’s other quality relievers end up settling for in early Feb. My prediction right now is that the Twins get 2 guys who perform better than May in 21 for about half of what he will be paid.

The WAR from their relievers comes 90% from Hendricks. I wrote an article about this yesterday. Yes Hendricks is worth about 1.5 WAR more than Colome but the games are still played. Last year the White Sox were perfect in games that Colome pitched, meaning that Colome never was responsible for a loss. The 3 games they lost when Colome pitched, 2 were in extra innings where Colome pitched a perfect 9th to send it to extras. Hendricks peripherals may give them a higher WAR but it is hard to better than perfect as far as actual wins and losses.

So ESPN and Jeff Passan just published an article saying the White Sox are the team to beat now in the American League. He feels that way now due to them signing Hendricks. Now Hendricks is a very good reliever and might be the best closer in all of baseball. But how much better did he actually make them? If the White Sox had a bullpen like the Phillies last year and still only last out to us by 1 game I might buy all this hype but they didn’t. Alex Colomé pitched great as a closer last year and that is who Hendricks is replacing. Last year Colomé pitched in 21 games in the regular season and the White Sox went 18-3 in those games with Colomé saving 12 of those wins and having no losses. Of the 3 team losses, 2 were in extra innings where Colomé pitched a shutout ninth to get the games into extras. How much better could anyone have pitched in the closer position for the White Sox last year? They couldn’t have because Colomé was not responsible for the losing runs scored in any of the 21 games he pitched in. I know that Hendricks peripheral numbers were all better than Colomé but at the end of the day it is still about wins and losses. How much can Hendricks really improve them when Colomé was basically perfect last year from a win loss standpoint? Are the White Sox a definite challenger for the AL Central? Absolutely they are. Are they the favorite for the AL? Maybe, but not because they just signed the best closer in the baseball. They already received “perfect” production from the closer position last season and all they can do is go down from there.

I just read the ESPN article about possible super teams or teams that will win 100 games. The locks listed were the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers. In the American League the Rays were the teams listed as the Prime Contender and the wild cards were the Twins and the Angels. The fact that we were listed with the Angels, a team that won 72 games last year, is a story for anther post. The question on the Twins was"if their pitching works out". Last time I checked we won 101 games last year and I don't see how our lineup is not at least as good if not even better this year with Arraez and Buxton for a whole year and Donaldson replacing Cron. So let's discuss our pitching. We have Berrios and Odorizzi back, and I will discuss them in greater detail shortly. The next players that pitched the most innings were Kyle Gibson, Martin Perez and Michael Pineda. Pineda will miss almost exactly a quarter of the season but has a good chance of matching last years innings total of 149 or at least coming close. Big Mike also gets to pitch only in the warmer months which seemed to be his best part of last season. So the staff comparison really comes down to replacing Gibson and Perez. Those 2 combined to make 58 starts and pitch 325 innings last year. Gibson had a 5.12 ERA and Perez had 4.84. They both had WHIP around 1.5. That is what we are replacing. That is not exactly Koufax and Drysdale. Even if the Maeda trade falls thru the leading candidates to replace those 2 are Homer Bailey, Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe. For Dobnak, Smeltzer and Thorpe their respective ERA's were 1.59, 3.86 and 6.18. Both Dobnaks and Thorpes ERA's were a little misleading. The respective FIP for those 3 was 2.90, 4.58 and 3.47. For comparison sake Gibson and Perez came in at 4.26 and 4.66. Thorpe takes a huge jump due to his excellent SO totals and an unsustainable .438 BABIP. Where is this huge drop-off that would cause our win total to plummet? If anything it looks like we would be slightly better if those 3 combined to eat up the innings pitched by Perez and Gibson. Homer Bailey pitched decent last year after 4 years of not pitching much or well. His 163 IP was the most he had managed since 2013. It was his 1st time with an ERA below 5.5 since 2014. Martin Perez was coming off a similar 2018 in which he didn't much but when he did he was terrible. If Bailey can repeat his 2019, his numbers across the board would be better than what Perez was able to do last season. However you look at the candidates at the back end of the rotation I don't see how you can make any sensible argument that we are worse off then we were last year at this time. Knowing now what we received from Gibson and Perez and seeing what the peripherals were for the candidates to replace them, it would be hard to not acknowledge that we are at least as well off going into this season if not actually in a better position than last year. Now let's look at Jose Berrios. I think he will continue his improvement and will climb to be one of the top 20 pitchers in baseball. Last year Jose's overall numbers took a slight downturn from his previous season even though his ERA ended up slightly lower. His H/9 and K/9 were both slightly better in 2018. But a big reason for this very slight downturn we due to a very bad 6 game stretch in Aug and the 1st week of Sept. His numbers during that 6 game stretch were truly awful. 6 G 31.1 IP 47 H 29 R 15 BB 36 SO 8 HR Those numbers equate to averages of 8.33 ERA 13.5 H/9 4.31 BB/9 10.35 K/9 1.98 WHIP 2.31 HR/9 His number in his other 26 starts were ACE level performance 26 G 169 IP 147 H 53 R 36 BB 159 SO 18 HR This lead to averages of 2.82 ERA 7.72 H/9 1.91 BB/9 8.46 K/9 1.07 WHIP 0.96 HR/9 So before Aug 1 Berrios was having a season that would have put him among the very best pitchers in baseball and would have definitely garnered him Cy Young votes. Now I know you can't cherry pick numbers and every start counts. But I do think that Berrios had a bad stretch that somewhat misleadingly brought down the rest of his numbers. This was a time when maybe his arm was tired, or he had a little bit of a confidence crisis or maybe just some bad luck. Could have been a mixture of all 3. I love Berrios' work ethic and I feel certain he sent this entire offseason working towards finding a solution for his late season fade. It really is the last step for him to becoming a truly elite pitcher. He may not be the ace of a Verlander or Cole level, but who is. There are maybe 5 pitchers in all of baseball who are at that level. Where Berrios can slide into is the next tier of the top 20 pitchers in baseball. Not sure what everyone else's definition of ace is but I think top 20 is pretty close. If we do acquire Maeda, it isn't even comparable to last season. He would immediately be a vast improvement over Gibson and Perez.

At what cost though? Also what are the chances that Graterol or Balazovic becomes a 1 or a 2? Or Cole Sands or Blayne Emlow or Jhoan Duran? All 5 of these guys have either pitched in AA or will this year. That means they are closet being in the majors. At least on and most likely 2 of these guys will have to be included to get a top of the rotation starter. This team is built to contend for easily the next 3 to 4 years with the current crop plus Kiriloff, Lewis, Larnach, Rooker and company are close to making their debuts. I'd rather keep all my pitching prospects for another year and see where we are. Graterol and Balazovic could be pitching in our rotation come July of this season.

Hey Jeremy this is by far the best blueprint I have seen. Contract for Wheeler makes sense, he’s the FA pitcher I want the most. Might be a little low on the annual salaries to get some of these guys to sign Like Odorizzi, Wheeler and Rogers but we will see.

Or another way to look at this season is that the Twins have starters age 27 or younger at all 3 outfield spots, 3B, SS, 2B and C. They a 2 time All-Star pitcher that is 25. They have 1 of the best relievers in baseball with 3 years left of team control. They have top prospects coming up in OF/1B (Rooker, Kirilloff, Raley), SS/2B (Lewis, Gordon), C (Rortvedt, Jeffers), Starters (Graterol, Duran, Colina, Gonsalves, Ober, Balazovic, Sands). Everyone of these players has played at least at AA except for Balazovic who has spent most of the year at High A and will most likely start next season at AA. I don’t think the window is closing real soon.

I have tickets available for tomorrow’s game against Royals. 4cseats in sec 120.

Only 3. 5 hours to game time. I don't want the tickets to go unused. If you want to go to the game tonight let me know.

Hey everyone I just bought 4 season tickets for 20 games the rest of the season. I live in Dallas and will be going to just a few games when we come home and I will give some away to friends and family. I also want to use some of the games to raise money for a cause I feel strongly about, as former military, the Wounded Warriors Project. I’m hopeful that we will auction off tickets to raise money for WWP. The first game I have available is for tonight. I am still working out the logistics of doing an auction on Twins Daily with Seth and the gang so tonight will be on the honor system. If anyone knows a veteran or would be willing to donate $100 to WWP the tickets are yours. Just respond in the comments and I will send you the tickets. My seats for tonight’s game are Section 107, row 7 seats 11 thru 14. They are really nice seats. Please take photos of you at the game and post to Twins Daily. I really want to raise awareness for the 1st auction. The link for making a donation https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/Default.aspx?tsid=10043

I’m guessing we will hear shortly that Steer and to some extent Gray signed for below slot. Then the Twins will use that extra money to grab a few guys who slip. Then some of the Twins fans who can’t help but see the sky falling can take a breath.

First let me say I realize that this article will probably disappoint most fans because I am going to list out all of the internal options the Twins have versus trading away prospects. One of the biggest reason I feel this way is that for all the groaning I read in the comments section about our bullpen, it has been really good for a vast majority of the time. Some of the fungible pieces that the Twins have rotated thru the bottom of the bullpen such as Austin Adams, Chase DeJong and Andrew Vasquez have given up a lot of runs. Those 3 alone have given up 12 runs in only 3.2 innings. Taking just those 3 out gives the bullpen a 3.59 ERA. The top10 pieces in the bullpen which I list as B Parker, T Rogers, T May, R Harper, M Magill, M Morin, T Duffey, F Romero, T Hildenberger and Z Littell have combined for an ERA 2.92 of over 130.1 innings. They have allowed 119 hits and 40 walks for a whip of 1.22 and struck out 133. Those are all excellent numbers. It shows we don't need to rush into a deal and give away prospects for relievers. Reason number 2 is my list below. These are all internal options who should be given a chance. 1. Cody Stashak Cody is domination AA right now and is deserving of a promotion to AAA any day. He has 35Ks against just 3 walks in 23 innings and only has allowed 14 hits. Cody basically pitched the entire season last year in AA also with excellent numbers. He's ready for AAA and could soon be ready for the majors. The prospect handbook says his FB sits in low 90s with good life and has a good CB and changeup. 2. Kohl Stewart The Twins may have the same idea as me when it comes to trying some of these starters have been decent but not outstanding at AA and AAA and see if they can squeeze just a little better stuff out of them by moving them to the bullpen. Zack Littell came up and looked really good last night. The same could happen for Stewart. Stewart numbers have been OK as a starter at AAA, 71.1 IP between last year and this with an ERA of 4.13 on 75 hits allowed and 28 BB. His K/9 is 7.95. His FB sits in low 90's but he can hit 96,97. Only having to pitch an inning or 2 should allow those upper 90's FB to become more consistent. 3. Lewis Thorpe Thorpedo has looked very good in his last 3 outings. In his last 16 innings he's given up 5 runs on 15 hits with while his K/BB is 19 to 1. His FB sits 92-94 but he could also get a bump by moving to BP. He also would provide a second lefty. 4. Brusdar Graterol I think there is a very good reason that the Twins are limiting his IP so far this year. In looking at the boxscores it looks like Graterol has been on an 80 pitch limit in games. This has limited his IP to an average of 5 per game. I think the Twins have every intention of Graterol pitching at Target Field later this season. That could be in a 5th starter role to replace Pineda or replacing someone that is injured. Or he could take the Johan Santana route and get his feet wet in big leagues as a reliever. Out of the bullpen Graterol would most likely sit at 99/100. His changeup and slider are good pitches. He would be a dynamic weapon out of the pen in Sept and Oct. We know speed plays up when the weather turns cold in Oct. I doubt it is fun to hit a 100MPH FB when it is 45 degrees in Minneapolis in Oct. There are other starters who this might work for such as Jorge Alcala and Devin Smeltzer. A few other relievers who might be options are Jovani Moran, Tom Hackimer, who has been lights out this year and was recently promoted to AA and Jake Reed. Moving a few of these starters to the bullpen for a playoff run is not a permanent switch. I absolutely Brusdar starting games next season but if he can help us compete in the playoffs this season by pitching out of the pen I am all for it. With all of these options I would love too see a few of them get a shot before we start shipping out prospects to rent a reliever. With all of this said I am still absolutely hoping the Twins sign Kimbrel. Not just make a run but outbid everyone for his services. After next weekend it costs us nothing but money. Even if you have to go 3 years and almost 60 mil it is worth it. The Twins have very little salary on the books in the next 3 years. They can absolutely afford to pay Kimbrel 18 mil a year for the next 3 seasons and still make a run at Gerrit Cole in the offseason.

Talking about the Indians. When I looked at the opening lineup card I actually thought it was a post from a spring training game. That lineup is putrid. The great thing is the only person they are really missing is Lindor. Lindor is fantastic but he can’t make up for the rest of the poopoo platter that the Indians are going to trot out there on a daily basis. The Indians are going to be great at 2 spots with Lindor and Ramires and average at another with Santana. There is a good chance they will be below average to bad at the rest of the spots in the order. Even with that rotation, it’s hard to win every game 2-1. I wrote about this earlier in the spring, what happens if Lindor or Ramirez miss time or just simply aren’t as great as they’ve been the last 3 years? Then this lineup becomes one of the worst in baseball which is what we saw yesterday. Seriously Tyler Naquin batting 3rd? He wouldn’t even make the Twins roster. Lindor now has to wait for his ankle to heal then basically start spring training over again. He may miss the entire month of April. This division is absolutely for the taking. This isn’t an over reaction to 1 game. And don’t tell me they were missing Jason Kipnis also. Kipnis has been below average for 2 years.

I agree with what you are saying. I get why the players are mad but at this point it is kind of like screaming into the wind. Clubs have adjusted, they don't want to play for declining years. But players are still insisting on this. That isn't going to work. What they fight for is earlier forays into free agency. This can happen in the next CBA. A solution that also takes care of the service time issue at the beginning of players MLB career is a set amount of time from draft or signing. Say 8 years after draft for a high schooler and 6 years for a college player. This ensures that all players are free agents by 26 to 28 and have numerous years of prime earning years left. It also motivates clubs to not mess around and get their best players to the majors as quickly as possible.

Players are upset because nobody wants to pay them when they are 35 any more. It's just common sense to not pay someone for their declining years. A vast majority of these long term contract have been bad if not outright disastrous for the clubs. If Machado and Harper had been willing to sign 5 to 7 year deals they would have been signed months ago. It isn't the owners fault that the players have not adjusted their demand to meet the current climate.

Name me 3 teams in MLB that don't have question marks on 40% of their rotation? The Indians might be the only team that you can look at as being 4 deep. But the nice thing about the Indians is that as great as their rotation is that's how bad the rest of their team is minus Lindor and Ramirez. Their entire outfield, right side of their infield and catcher are all below average and could be terrible. Thru the top 6 players, the Indians are as talented as any team in baseball. The only problem with that is what happens if just one of those guys gets hurt and misses a substantial part of the season?

So I posted this 3 years ago almost to the day. It’s funny to look at some of these theses names and see how wrong I was. But also how some remain true. Still waiting on Buck and Sano to figure it out. Man was I wrong about the bullpen as None of the arms I listed made it except for Rogers. I think we may have a few of the secondary stars in Rosario, Polanco and Kepler. I think Berrios is a 2 and Gibson is a solid 3. Still need another # 2 caliber pitcher ( please be Graterol or Romero) or Berrios to develop into a true ace. The things that needs to happen for the Twins to win a title in the next few years. I break it down into 4 points. 1). Sano and Buxton need to emulate the Army and be all they can be. Both these guys have been at the top of prospect rankings for years. If the Twins are going to win a championship or 2 they have to become the studs they have the talent to be. For Sano this means becoming a prodigious power hitter. Sano needs to become a guy that regularly hits 35 homers and 35 doubles a year. I'm not saying he needs to be like Miggy and bat .330 also. We know he is going to strike out a lot but we will take that as long as we get the power and the patience. Buxton needs to become one of the best CFers in baseball. We know Buck has the tools to be the best defensive center fielder from day one. The bat needs to develop also. He needs to be a .300 hitter with some power and patience. A .300/.350/.475 with 15 homers, 50 steals and 100 plus runs every year. They need to be our Mauer and Morneau, potential MVP candidates year in and year out. 2) They need 7 points or less out of top 3 starters in rotation. I assign points to a starter according to their status as a number 1, 2 or 3 starter. Lower the point the better. The traditional way is for this to have a 1, a 2 and a 3. A true ace or number 1 starter, a very good number 2 and a solid number 3. I think teams like the Royals have shown that you can get by without an ace if you have several 2's and 3's. So out of the group of Gibson, Duffy, Berrios, Gonsalves, Stewart and Thorpe we need to get a true number 1 or at least a couple of 2's. I am a big fan of Kyle Gibson and believe he is already a 3 with a chance to go to a 2 if the SO ratio from the end of last season continues in 2016. I also believe Berrios will be a at least a 3 with a very good chance of being a 2 and at certain times to look like a 1. We need 1 more guy to hit the level of a number 2 starter. I still like Stewart's chances and I'm intrigued by Gonsalves, I really am hoping for Thorpe. If he can recover from TJ surgery and continue on the path he started on he may be able to still reach that level. 3). 3 bullpen pieces need to become lights out. In my post from last week I talked about not wanting to sign overpriced veteran arms. This is the reason why. We need these guys to have room to pitch in the majors. There is a large talented group of bullpen arms who are close to being ready for the big leagues. Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Tonkin, Meyer, Perterson, and a few others from the right side and Melotakis, Rogers, Booser from the left. 3 of these guys need to become lights out shut down relievers. My hope would be that the 3 ends up being Burdi, Melotakis and Chargois. 2 righties and a lefty that all throw 97 plus. A top 5 out of the pen with closer Perkins, May the set up man and then these 3 to pitch the 6th, 7th and eighth looks outstanding. 4). 2 additional secondary stars need to develop out of remaining cast You can't win with 2 stars and then nothing else in your lineup. You have to have depth so they don't just pitch around Buck and Sano. There is a plenty of potential names. Rosario, Kepler, Walker III, Park, Gordon, Polanco and others. We have Plouffe and Dozier already in place. I don't think they're stars but are very solid players but will they still be here in 3 years? Can Rosario build on his rookie year and keep his power stats while developing better patience? If he can truly become an annual 5 by 15 player (homers, triples, doubles, steals and assists) then he doesn't need to get on base at a .330 clip but at least an OBP of .300 is needed. Can Kepler become a big leaguer with stats that approach what he did last year for Chatanooga? Can Gordon become a SS that can hit .300/.350/.400 while playing good defense? Can Park's power translate to MLB and annually hit 25+ homers? We need at least 2 of these guys to develop into borderline all stars. SO that is a lot of good things that need to happen to win a World Series. The nice thing is there are lot of options. In the BP there are 8 or 9 guys that have potential and you just need 3. There are numerous good starting pitchers in the system and we only need 1 or 2 to hit the high end of their potential spectrum. There are quite a few position players who have performed at a very high level in the minors and we just need a coupe to continue that production. I know there is a very high failure rate with prospects, that is why you need to have so many options. I believe there is enough pieces currently in our system for a few of them to become these type of players. If we can roll out in 2018 with 2 potential MVP candidates in Sano and Buxton, a top 3 in the rotation of Number 1 Berrios, Number 2 Thorpe, Number 3 Gibson, borderline all stars in Rosario, Kepler and Gibson and lights out bullpen the Twins will win a World Series in the near future.

Very insightful.

What significant talent are we going to bring in right now? Harper? Honestly is he going to sign here unless he gets 10 years and 350 mil? I doubt it. Keuchel? I'm guessing he is going to want 4 years if not 5 to come here. Is he worth 5 years 100 mil when his peripheral stats have declined for 3 straight years and he's 31? If he was why wouldn't his own club, who knows him better than anyone, be making some sort of effort to resign him? The Astros potentially will lose both Cole and Verlander after this season but have made no move to resign Keuchel. Seriously what does that say? And signing guys isn't just about money. It also takes up a roster spot and costs the Twins draft picks and signing pool money. When do we give a serious chance to perform to the 7 young pitchers who have already pitched at least at AAA if not the majors? Kimbrel? This is the one I'd give serious consideration too. But according to one report the Twins have made an offer to Kimbrel for 3/45. It is still up to the player to say yes.

Everyone assumes the Indians are a slam dunk to win the division again this year. But should they be runaway favorite? Looking at their roster I see a couple of huge advantages. The rotation might be the deepest in baseball, accumulating 5 plus War form 3 starters, 4 guys were above 3.9 WAR, which is where the top Twins starter, Berriios, resides. Their 5 started accounted for just over 20 WAR last season. The Indians also have the best left side of the infield in baseball with Lindor and Ramirez. Those 2 combined for just under 16 WAR. So just from rotation and left side of the infield the Indians are already at 36 WAR. That’s amazing and it already puts the Twins at a huge deficit.. But let's look a little deeper and play the what if game. I'm not seeing really any regression from the rotation or from Lindor and Ramirez. They are all proven commodities and very talented. But word just came out that Lindor strained his calf and will most likely miss the beginning of the season. Maybe he misses a little time and even when he comes back it takes a little while to get his feet under him. Maybe this makes him a 6 WAR player. Lets look where the Twins will be in these same positions. Last year Berrios came in at 3.9 WAR. His peripheral stats were very similar to Clevinger who came in at 5.2 WAR. Clevinger stats were 200.0 IP 164 H 71 R 67 ER 67 BB 207 SO 13 W 8 L 1.16 WHIP 3.02 ERA. Berrios was 192.1 IP 159 H 83 R 82 ER 61 BB 202 SO 12 W 11 L 1.14 WHIP 3.84 ERA. As you can see IP, H, BB, SO and WHIP are all very similar. Their FIP was 3.52 to 3.84 and BABIP was .267 to .263. They were very similar pitchers. My point is that Jose is not very far from being a 5 WAR pitcher. Jake Odorizzi came in at 1.6 WAR last season. Jake seemed to struggle for most of the season and had career highs in walks and WHIP. But he still had less hits than innings pitched and and the 2nd best k/9 rate of his career. Jake could easily improve to a 3 WAR player which he has done twice in his career. Michael Pineda is a complete unknown coming off surgery and only pitched 12 innings last year. When healthy he has been a 1.5 to 2.5 WAR player. Lets say he stays moderately healthy and outs up a 2 WAR season. If Gibson pitches like he did last year he will produce a 4 WAR season again. That puts the Twins at 14 WAR thru the 1st 4 spots in the rotation. Now at 20 to 14 in WAR it doesn't seem so bad. This is also assuming full health form all 4 Cle starters. They have all been very healthy and consistent in their careers but that also means they have pitched a ton of innings over the last few years. Kluber has pitched nearly 1100 innings over the last 5 years and will turn 33 in April. Bauer has pitched nearly 900 innings over the last 5 years. Carrasco is at 850 innings over the last 5 years and will turn 32 before opening day. I'm not predicting injury or fall off but it happens. Even without it the Twins have too make up 6 WAR. So based on the assumptions above the Indians will get roughly 14 WAR from Lindor and Ramirez. What can the Twins get from Polanco and Sano? Jorge was a 1.5 WAR player for half a season. He slashed ..288/.345/.427 for a .772 OPS. I really think that is what he can do over a full season. Sano has had 2 season above 2 WAR in his career. Now if Miguel comes all the way back to what he did as a rookie we are looking at a 4 to 5 WAR player but I think that is too much to ask. But if he can be solid, draw some walks and punish mistakes a season like 2017 when he was .264/.352/.507 is possible with 30 to 35 homers. That brings in 2.5 WAR. That would leave the those 2 at 5.5 WAR combined. Still along way from the 14 that Lindor and Ramirez put up. Thru these spots I have the Twins trailing by roughly 15 wins. So where can they make it up? Well I believe the Twins are better at every other position. The Indians outfield right now is scheduled to be one of the worst in baseball. The 4 players predicted by MLB.com to get a majority of their starts are Leonys Martin, Tyler Naquin, Greg Allen and Jordan Ludlow. Huh? Who? Martin is a speed guy who turns 31 before the season starts and has played more than 95 games in a season just once in the last 4 years. The other 3 are complete unknowns who have no track record either in the majors or the minors of being anything more than league average. If they get 5 WAR combined from this group it will be a blessing. The Twins on the other hand could have one off the better outfields in baseball. In 2017 Buck played 140 games and put up a .727 OPS and still was a 5 win player. For Buck the only stat that matters in games played. If he can play 150 games it means he stayed healthy and produced at least enough at the plate to stay in the lineup. at 150 games played he is at least a 5 WAR guy because of his amazing defense. Kepler came in at 2.8 WAR last season and his OPS was only .727. Nearly everyone in and out of baseball believes that Kepler has more to offer. His peripheral stats all point toward to a better season. Cody Bellinger was worth 4+ WAR last season with an .814 OPS and 25 homers. Kepler is a better outfielder and in a good season at the plate can out up at least those numbers. Getting 4 WAR out of Max is very possible. Eddie put up a 3.6 WAR last season and that should be his career average. That puts the Twins at 12.5 WAR from the outfield and doesn't account for the fact that our 4th OFer, Jake Cave would most likely be the best option on the Indians. Our 5th OFer, Lamont Wade would almost assuredly start this season for the Indians. Just from the outfield the Twins have already cut the WAR deficit to the Indians in half. Now lets look at the rest off the lineup. The Indians projected starters at 1B, 2B, DH and C according to MLB.com are Jake Kipnis at 2B, Carlos Santana and Jake Bauers will share 1B and DH and the catching positions will be platoon between Roberto Perez and Kevin Plawecki. Like the OF there is a staggering lack of talent here for a contending team. The Indians traded Yan Gomes who had the 8th best OPS for a catchier last year at .762 and 7th best WAR of 2.6. Replacing him is the duo of Perez and Plawecki, neither of who has ever been a full time catcher. Perez career high for at bats in a season is 248 in 2017 and that produced an OPS of .664 and a WAR of .8. Plawecki high was 238 AB and an OPS of .685 and WAR of 1.3. Best case scenario has these 2 combining for 2 WAR and it could be a lot worse. Perez produced a negative .5 WAR last year in 179 AB. Carlos Santana produced the 2nd lowest WAR of his career last season at 1.7 but still had 24 homers and drew 110 walks so he has value. He could bounce back to be a 3 win player but also turns 33 in April. Jake Bauers is a young guy acquired from Tampa that really struggled with average and getting on base but showed some pop with 11 homers and 22 doubles in 323 AB during his rookie season. It seemed curious that Tampa would give up on Bauers so quickly but we have learned from our own experience with them that they tend to be right in cutting ties with young players. (See Young, Delmon) At second is Kipnis who I thought was on his way to being a star 5 years ago. He has not and his last 2 years have nearly identical OPS of .704 and .705 and a total WAR of less than 2. He turns 32 in April so a big bounce back is doubtful. The combined WAR of these 3 positions will be less than 7 and could be much worse. If Santana and Kipnis' last years are just the beginning of the decline they could both be less than league average. The catching platoon has the ability to also be less than average. Bauers may never learn to hit for enough average to be a regular. On the Twins side we will have Schoop at 2B, Cron and Cruz at 1B and DH and Castro and Garver splitting the catching. Schoop struggled in the Baltimore cess pool and then really struggled after the trade to Milwaukee. Schoop is just 1 year removed from being one of the best 2nd basemen is baseball in 2017 putting up a .841 OPS with 32 homers and 35 doubles for a WAR of 5.1. Even during last years struggles he still his 21 homers. His 2017 season may prove to be an outlier but a return to .270/.310/.470 seems very probable. Jed Lowrie produced an .801 OPS last year with 23 homers and that was worth 4.8 WAR. I think the possibility of Schoop producing at least 3 WAR is very strong with a good chance at 4 or higher. Cruz has been at least a 2.9 WAR player every year for the last 5 years. Now his stats were all down last year but that is from 3 excellent years prior and he still produced an OPS of .851 with 37 homers. Both of which would have led the Twins. He will turn 39 half way thru the season but unless he just falls off a cliff a 2 win season is probably the floor with a 3 win season much more likely. Cron had a career year last year with an OPS of .816 and 30 homers and a home run every 16 at bats. It may not be a complete outlier as his previous 2 season produced OPS of .792 and .742 with home run rates of 1 every 25 at bats and 1 every 21 at bats. The home run rate did improve this last year but it is part of a 3 year trend for him. He may not hit 30 again but with 500 AB 20 to 25 is definitely possible to go with an OPS in the upper 700's. That should put him right around 2 WAR again. Lastly the catcher spot where Castro is returning from a knee injury which is not good for a guy turning 32 at that position. Castro has been a .700 OPS guy for his career and is an excellent pitch framer. Garver is has his own injury concerns after suffering a concussion that ended his season. Garver was playing excellent and put up a .749 OPS during his rookie year. I think these 2 at least have the ability to be equal to the Indians catchers and put up a combined 2 WAR. Adding it up I think the best case for the Indians is they get 7 WAR from these 4 positions and for the Twins the worst case scenario they get 9 WAR. I say the Twins receive a total 4 additional WAR from these spots than the Indians. That leaves the Indians ahead by roughly 3 to 4 wins before we look at the bullpen. The Indians have a great 1 in Brad Hand but the rest of their bullpen has question marks after letting Andrew Miller and Cody Allen leave in FA. The Twins have Taylor Rogers who nearly matched Hand last year in value. The Indians will be relying on a 34 yr old Dan Otero who was terrible last year and 37 yr old Oliver Perez who was fantastic. The Twins will be relying on Trevor May who was brilliant in a small sample size but is now 2 full years removed from Tommy John surgery. Hildenberger and Reed both struggled but have definite chance for improvement. Reed has been a very good reliever for most of his career and is only 30. His speed on his FB was down last year so lets hope it was due to an injury. Hildenberger was terrible in the 2nd half last year with an ERA of 9 and a .325 average against. Prior to that in his 1st 90 innings his career ERA was in the low 3's. I like the Twins chances of having a better bullpen when all is said and done. Their bounce back candidates are much more likely due to history and age. There really isn't a regression candidate unlike the Indians who heavily relied upon Perez last year and will so this year. I know that WAR is not a perfect measuring too and it can differ across websites but I think this is interesting. I would have the Indians as about 3 wins better than the Twins right now. But almost all of the Indians WAR is tied up in just 6 players. If any one of them suffers a season ending injury that would kill their chances. Lindor is already off to a bad start with the calf injury and he is instrumental to their success. Most of their pitchers have thrown a ton of innings the last 5 years and 2 of them are in their 30's. The rest of their team will be average at best and could be down right bad. From the farm I believe the Twins are set up to be able too call on reinforcements if needed. There are many options to fill the rotation or bullpen including Stewart, Thorpe, Romero, Mejia, Littrell, Gonzalves. The Indians don't have this. Their top pitching prospect in Triston McKenzie and he could be dynamic but he has made just 16 starts above high A. The Twins also have lineup replacements that could be ready either by May or August in Gordon, Rooker, Wade, Raley and maybe even Kirilloff. The Indians have 1 OFer, Oscar Mercado who may be able to help. I know the Twins have a lot of What If questions that have to go right for them to win the division. But they aren't Hail Mary type of What Ifs. Kepler needs to take the next step, Berrios needs to continue his progression, Buck and Sano need to bounce back to just being decent again at the plate or in buck's case even below average will do. May continues to look like last year as he moves farther away from his surgery. Gibson and Rosario repeat their years. Schoop have a little bounce back. Polanco produces over a full year. Not all of these will happen but I definitely think enough could, since like I said we are only hoping for either a return to career averages ir some to take the logical next step.

He had a bad 3 months in his first exposure to AAA in the second half of the season. All I'm saying is have a little patience before we just write guys off. Gordon will play this entire season at 23.

I don't think I said that the entire season rests on comebacks from Buxton and Sano. I believe I mentioned about 7 or 8 items that are crucial to the Twins winning the division this year. But yes 2 of the most important are decent seasons from Buxton and Sano. If Buxton and Sano repeat seasons from last year I think it will be very difficult for them to win. To overcome that it would require huge seasons from most of the remaining question marks. At some point don't we want to see what Romero, Gonsalves, Littell, Stewart, Thorpe, Reed, Vasquez, Moya, Mejia can do? Is Keuchel really better than Thorpe or Mejia? Maybe this year or possibly next. But 4 years from now when Keuchel is 36 and we still owe him 18 mil?