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MACKDI

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  1. Like
    MACKDI reacted to Cody Christie for an article, Reevaluating the Twins Designated Hitter Strategy for 2023   
    Throughout the Twins' history, some tremendous players have filled the designated hitter role. For some players like Tony Oliva, the shift to DH was necessary because of mounting injuries. For other players like Paul Molitor and Jim Thome, it was a line-up spot to fill near the end of a Hall of Fame career. The Twins don't have a player like that on the 2023 roster, so their approach to the DH role will look similar to recent seasons. 
    Rocco Baldelli told reporters, "We're going to rotate the DH. You could probably almost name every guy out there in the regular lineup that's going to have some time at DH. There's a lot of them. We're going to have some options." He went on to say, "I actually think it's a good way to
    use the DH slot. If you have Nelson Cruz like we've had or David Ortiz and a few guys that really fit in that spot well, you're going to go with guys like that. But I think for most clubs the best way to do it is rotate that thing around."
    Keeping Players In the Line-Up
    Since Nelson Cruz's departure, the Twins have left the DH spot open to provide a partial rest day for a player while keeping his bat in the line-up. Last season, Minnesota started 15 different players at DH, including Luis Arraez (34), Byron Buxton (34), and Gary Sanchez (32), starting more than 30 games at DH. Arraez and Buxton were battling injuries, so it was a way to take stress off their bodies on the defensive side of the ball. 
    Buxton made it clear this spring that he doesn't like serving in the DH role. "Mentally, it's very hard," he said because he has to stay warm between at-bats. He's not just watching the game from the dugout and waiting for his turn to bat. Buxton is down in the cage, taking more swings than if he were playing in the outfield. Even with this disdain for the role, Buxton will likely lead the team in appearances as the DH. The Twins are a better team with him in the line-up, and the DH spot allows him to make sure his body is prepared for the rigors of a 162-game schedule. 
    Besides Buxton, plenty of other veterans will see time at DH in 2023, including Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, and Nick Gordon. Those players are the tip of the iceberg for the DH role, especially if the Twins want to employ different line-up strategies. 
    Platoon Options
    The Twins can also utilize a platoon strategy depending on the pitching match-up. Nick Gordon showed tremendous improvements with his power numbers in last season's second half, as his OPS improved by 76 points. As a lefty, most of his damage came against right-handed pitchers by hitting .289/.329/.465 (.793). Gordon is out of minor league options, so he will be on the Opening Day roster, and DH at-bats might be one way to get him into the line-up regularly. 
    Other infielders can benefit from being used in a platoon situation. Kyle Farmer looked to be the team's starting shortstop before the club re-signed Correa. Now a bench player, Farmer will get starts around the infield, but he should be in the line-up whenever the team faces a lefty. Last season, he destroyed lefties by hitting .309/.380/.568 (.948) with 19 extra-base hits in 139 at-bats. 
    Minnesota officially added Donovan Solano to the big-league roster in the last week. The 35-year-old has averaged around 90 games per season over the last two years. As a righty, his OPS was 66 points higher (.770 OPS vs. .704 OPS) when facing left-handed pitchers last season. The Solano signing has multiple facets, including him getting time at DH and first base. 
    Other DH Options
    The Twins have a trio of young corner outfielders trying to earn time on the big-league roster. Alex Kirilloff is penciled in as the everyday first baseman, but he is slowly returning from offseason wrist surgery. Minnesota will be cautious with him throughout the spring, and there's a chance he will need regular days off to start the year. After the Twins signed Solano, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner seem destined for St. Paul. Both bats will impact the big-league roster this season, and some of those appearances will come in a DH role. 
    Leaving the DH spot open provides the Twins with flexibility, but there isn't a player that would be considered a big bat off the bench. This DH strategy may work for the Twins, but they have to hope it can keep more players healthy in 2023. Outside of Buxton, who do you think makes the most appearances as the designated hitter? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
     
  2. Like
    MACKDI reacted to Ted Schwerzler for an article, Second Base Is Twins Most Intriguing Position in 2023   
    Short of Alex Kirilloff not being healthy and failing to open the year at first base for the Minnesota Twins, all eyes should be on second base for Rocco Baldelli. Carlos Correa was brought back to be Minnesota’s shortstop for at least the next handful of years, and he’ll be flanked by both Jose Miranda and Jorge Polanco. We don’t yet know how Miranda will hold things down taking over the hot corner for Gio Urshela, but Polanco and his role couldn’t be more under a microscope.
    In 2019, as a member of the Bomba Squad, Jorge Polanco was named an All-Star starter and received MVP votes. He blasted a career-best 22 home runs, and his .841 OPS was substantially above what we’d seen to that point. He followed that up with a disappointing 2020 season and then underwent another ankle surgery. In 2021, he rebounded nicely hitting an even better 33 dingers, and his .826 OPS had him again looking like a superstar.
    Unfortunately, injury was the theme last year for Polanco, and he played in just 104 games after dealing with knee tendinitis. Recently talking to The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, Polanco said, “I don’t feel anything. I think it’s part of the process. It’s why I’m going slow, so I can start building up from there and I start doing more things. Once I start doing that, I think I’ll be ready to go. … I feel good right now. It’s just the plan. We’ve got a plan. I’ve got to get my knee ready. We’re just going with the plan to start slow and build up until I’m ready to play.”
    It’s great that he doesn’t feel pain, but it’s not exactly comforting that he’s coming off the season he had and entering the final year of his five-year extension. Polanco will need to be more of what he was in 2019 and 2021 if Baldelli can count on him at second base this year, and availability could be the chief concern.
    As Correa now has shortstop locked down into the foreseeable future, it’s Polanco’s second base where any number of prospects could contribute for the Twins. Royce Lewis looked like a big leaguer during his brief cameo last season, and he should be available sometime this summer. Brooks Lee blitzed through the system after being taken in the first round, and Austin Martin focusing on hitting for average again could have him making a short stop at Triple-A as well. Each of those names appears more likely to factor in on the dirt, and taking over for an absent Polanco seems relatively straightforward.
    Playing in his age-29 season, Polanco will be looking to put up good numbers heading into free agency. He does have a $10.5 million vesting option with the Twins should he reach 550 plate appearances this year, but that’s not something he’ll sniff if there is any significant amount of missed action. As the Twins look towards the future and must figure out how to shift their infield following the presence of Correa, this year could not be any larger for Polanco.
    The front office has the benefit of starting a guy who has shown to compete at a very high level. Polanco has already proven what he’s capable of, but the Twins need to see that return to the forefront immediately in 2023. Each of the depth options behind him will certainly be pushing for their opportunity on the farm, and having realistic options is a great problem to have. Minnesota added to the possibilities earlier this week when they signed veteran Donovan Solano to a one-year deal as well. He could get plenty of run at second base, and has been a starter at the highest level there previously.
    Whether Minnesota would prefer for Polanco to be on the Opening Day roster in 2024 remains to be seen, but he can answer a lot of those questions on his own simply by being healthy enough to compete. Polanco hasn’t seen a substantial defensive boost moving to the opposite side of the diamond, and while that isn’t the outcome that was hoped for, his bat can carry him just like it did his predecessor Brian Dozier.
    If there is a place on the diamond for Minnesota to have in the front of their minds as they evaluate how to get the best from the roster this season, it will be second base as a reflection of which Polanco is present.
  3. Like
    MACKDI reacted to Cody Christie for an article, 4 Players the Twins Need to Outperform Their Steamer Projections   
    Leading into the 2023 season, fans can analyze different projection systems to predict the performance of any big-league team. For this article, Steamer projections will be featured. According to MLB.com, Steamer uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. It also uses pitch-tracking data to help forecast pitchers. 
    Steamer projects the Twins' top five position players as Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Jose Miranda, and Christian Vazquez. On the mound, the top five pitchers are all starters, including Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda. It would be easy to target any of those players and say they need to outperform their projections, but let's dig deeper into the roster. 
    Joey Gallo, OF
    2023 Steamer Projection: .188/.313/.393, 105 wRC+, 2.7 Off, -6.3 Def, 1.1 WAR
    The Twins signed Gallo to a one-year, $11 million deal in hopes of him returning to the All-Star caliber player he was in previous seasons. He's coming off his worst professional season, as he posted a .638 OPS and a 79 OPS+ over 126 games for the Yankees and the Dodgers. His projected slugging percentage is 76 points below his career average, which is one area he will need to outperform his projection. His defensive total also seems extremely low for a player known as a strong defender. Last year, he posted a -1.3 Def, his lowest total since 2017. 
    Trevor Larnach, OF
    2023 Steamer Projection: .225/.306/.373, 96 wRC+, -1.9 OF, -5.3 Def, 0.3 WAR
    Over the last two seasons, Larnach has dealt with multiple injuries, including a hand injury and a core muscle injury. When healthy, his powerful bat looks like it should be penciled into the middle of the Twins line-up. In 16 games last June, he posted a 1.077 OPS with six doubles and three home runs. Twins Daily's most recent roster projection has Larnach pegged to start the year at Triple-A. He will have to prove he is healthy and hit his way back to the big-league roster. Injuries will impact the Twins' outfield, and he needs to be ready when promoted. 
    Jorge Alcala, RP
    2023 Steamer Projection: 54 IP, 3.75 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.2 WAR
    Alcala missed nearly all of the 2022 season after having arthroscopic debridement surgery on his throwing elbow. In 2021, Alcala posted a 3.92 ERA with 9.2 K/9 over 59 2/3 innings while earning opportunities in a late-inning role. The Twins didn't add anyone to the bullpen this winter, which makes Alcala's return even more critical. He's already produced more than 0.2 WAR in multiple big-league seasons, so that projection is the most significant discrepancy. If Alcala can outperform his projections, he may help to revitalize a core bullpen group that struggled through much of the first half of 2022. 
    Jorge Lopez, RP
    2023 Steamer Projection: 70 IP, 3.58 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.4 WAR
    Steamer projects Lopez to provide the fourth-highest WAR total among Twins relievers. It's reasonable to think that the Twins would be disappointed in that result. Minnesota surrendered four pitching prospects (including Cade Povich) because they felt Lopez could upgrade the bullpen for multiple seasons. He struggled after the trade with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in 23 appearances. The Twins won't follow a traditional closer model, but Lopez will likely get save opportunities, primarily if Jhoan Duran is used in high-leverage situations earlier than the ninth inning. 
    Which player is most likely to outperform their Steamer projection? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
  4. Like
    MACKDI reacted to Adam Neisen for an article, Was the Bomba Squad Overrated?   
    In 2019, the Twins put together one of the greatest seasons in franchise history. They won 101 games - second-best in Twins history - and cruised to a division win. Known as the Bomba Squad, the team broke numerous home run records, including MLB’s team record of 307, and they had five players hit 30 or more home runs. It looked like a youth movement was leading the way, but sustained success eluded them, both in the postseason and in subsequent years.
    In the postseason, the Yankees swept the Twins. pushing their playoff losing streak to 16 games. People look back at that team as one of the few times the Twins could be considered "true contenders," but in reality, they are blinded by nostalgia. The failures of the team all come down to sustained success. 
    Sustained success is something that has been echoed time and time again since Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over the team in 2016. The reasoning behind it is simple: anything can happen in the playoffs. The more times you make the playoffs, the more chances you have to go on a World Series run. 
    The primary way to achieve this level of success is through team control. When trading at the deadline, players are often acquired as rentals. But trading for players with a year or two of team control gives the receiving team much more value. The same goes for signing team-friendly contract extensions. The Twins have committed to this philosophy in recent years through multiple moves.
    Pablo Lopez - traded for with two years of team control Chris Paddack - traded for with three years of team control and then a contract extension Tyler Mahle - traded for with 1.5 years of team control Jorge Lopez - traded for with 2.5 years of team control Gio Urshela - trade for with two years of team control Controlling players for multiple years solidifies parts of the team while also giving the organization the financial freedom to build around these players. In 2019, however, the organization ditched this idea.  
    2018 was a disappointing year, and in the following offseason, the Twins decided to fill their gaps with one-year rentals. It started in November when the Twins filled their first base gap by picking up CJ Cron off of waivers. Then they signed Jonathan Schoop to a one-year deal at second base, followed up by a one-year deal (plus a team option) to aging slugger Nelson Cruz. In February 2019, the Twins acquired Marwin Gonzalez for a two-year deal. To "fix" their issues in the rotation, they signed Martin Perez to a one-year deal. 
    Notice the pattern here? It would have been easy to write off the season, except all those rentals started off hot and propelled the team into playoff contention. It became even more complicated as the season went on.
    By midseason, the one-year rentals were already starting to decline. Cron got hurt and had a bad second half. Perez had a hot start but got rocked the rest of the season. Schoop had a bad month in June and was mostly replaced by the up-and-coming Luis Arraez. Only Cruz continued to shine and was awarded the team MVP as a 39-year-old. 
    By the time the trade deadline rolled around, either the front office felt that the early season success truly was sustainable despite warning signs, or they felt pressured to make a move to push the team further into contention. They added Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson. Romo was decent to finish the year, and the Dyson trade is arguably one of the worst of Derek Falvey's time. In the end, the acquisitions didn't matter enough, and the Twins fell short of the Yankees in the ALDS.
    The 2019 team produced great memories but had a lack of substance behind them. When one takes a step back and looks at the whole picture, one realizes how deceptive the year was in evaluating the Twins' future. The 2019 Twins were entertaining to watch, but when it comes to their effect on the franchise, people are blinded by nostalgia. 

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