GKuehl

I would ABSOLUTELY sign Duran to a long-term extension to buy out his arbitration years and his first 2-3 free agent years. We can say it’s a small sample size, but this isn’t some fluke — he throws 103 MPH with nasty breaking stuff. If anything, Duran should be even better this year than last year. He might be the best reliever in baseball. Injuries will always be a risk, but it’s not as if pitchers don’t consistently come back from TJ surgery in today’s MLB. Even if Duran needed TJ at some point, I’m guessing he would still come back as an elite reliever worth $12 million/year in 6 years, especially since team spending will only continue to increase.

No matter how the ball is flying, this year's Twins feel fairly well-prepared to handle it. If the ball is flying like 2019, Buxton, Gallo, and Correa are likely to hit 30+ homers and Miranda, Kepler, Polanco, and Kirilloff are likely to hit 20+ homers. If the ball is dead like it has been the last few years, our elite OF of Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, and Taylor will eat up fly balls.

I still strongly believe in Trevor Larnach as a potential #5 hitter for years to come. When he hasn't been trying to play hurt, he has looked like a hitter with substantial power to all fields who makes enough contact that he isn't the next Brent Rooker. Larnach's fielding is an underrated aspect of his game -- he's no Max Kepler in the outfield but he's a heck of a lot better than Delmon Young or Josh Willingham have been.

When I heard the Lux news, I wondered whether Farmer might be an option for the Dodgers, especially considering the Dodgers love versatile guys and Farmer would fill in nicely there. After the addition of Solano, Farmer seems a bit redundant considering Solano can play everywhere that Farmer can except for SS. However, that last part is probably key -- trading Farmer would leave the Twins without a true backup SS. It seems pretty clear the Twins don't want to use Gordon at SS, Polanco is nothing more than a "break glass in case of emergency" SS at this point, and Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee might not be ready for the Majors until mid-summer. A trade of Farmer seems possible if the Twins felt comfortable at all heading into the year with some combination of Gordon, Lee, Polanco, Solano as backup SS options; however, it seems unlikely we would want to diminish our overall depth considering the primary goal of offseason seems to have been to accumulate as much depth as possible.

I’m all for it. With Henriquez and Winder not 100% and Megill looking atrocious, maybe Hoffman can be the long guy we’re looking for or Santana can figure something out, especially considering he’s been really good in stretches and then looks like April/May-Pagan the rest of the time.

Though both are busts, the Cavaco and Sabato picks are polar opposites. We criticize the FO for drafting Cavaco as a toolsy prep infielder with massive upside if he ever put it all together, and we also criticize the FO for drafting Sabato as a high-floor, low-ceiling prospect who was likely to make it to the majors as a DH. Are we just blinded by hindsight? Maybe -- if Sabato was hitting like we all expected he would after we drafted him, the pick would make a lot of sense, especially considering how much this year's version of the team could use a righty power bat.

Really interesting work, thanks! 100% agree — fielders will have to field his grounders on the move (if at all), forcing them to make more difficult, rushed plays to throw Buck out at 1st.

Feels similar to the spot Smeltzer was in last year — a long way from the bigs. Smeltzer got a shot (and performed pretty admirably), but it took a glut of injuries for him to get a chance. With the added rotation depth this year, it would probably take 6 or more SP injuries for Dobnak to get a spot start this year.

Barring any injuries in Spring Training, the Opening Day roster is pretty locked-in. The only changes could come from a Bullpen move, whether that's signing someone like Matt Moore or keeping someone like Henriquez or Ober over Megill. The only possible position-player spot up for grabs is Trevor Larnach's, who could land in AAA to start the year if Julien or Martin look fantastic in Spring Training.

I've been wondering if we'll see Farmer hit leadoff like Garlick did at times last year against lefty SPs. As soon as they pull the lefty starter, we could insert Polanco, Gordon, Kepler, Kiriloff, Larnach, etc. (whoever was on the bench that day so Farmer could start) to get them an AB against an opposite-handed pitcher (included Polanco in here even though he's a switch-hitter because his numbers are better against RHP than LHP).

I would love a Moore or Chafin signing -- they raise the floor of the bullpen and relegate Pagan to mop-up duty (WHICH IS A GREAT THING). A top 5 of Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, and Moore/Chafin would be glorious, especially with the upside of Alcala and Moran as our 6th and 7th best relievers.

While the Dobnak story was a lot fun a few years ago, his chances of joining the big league club this year are slim unless our pitching staff is decimated by injuries (further lessening his chances to impact the Twins is that Dobnak is not on the 40-man roster). Rather than converting Dobby to a reliever (where his ceiling is a middle reliever at best), I would prefer we keep him stretched out as a staring pitcher in St. Paul. At this point, he's probably 11th in the SP pecking order behind Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, Ober, Paddack, Winder, Varland, SWR. He might even be behind Headrick and Balazovic, both of whom are on the 40-man. In the bullpen hierarchy, Henriquez and Sands would likely each get a chance before Dobnak as well.

The back end of our system feels deeper than it has for a handful of years. It feels like there's quite a bit of potential in this group, which is great to see from 21-30.

If Julien continues hitting, either in Spring Training or in the early on at St. Paul, he'll quickly find himself at Target Field. One of the driving forces behind moving Arraez outside of Pablo Lopez must have been the front office's confidence in the ability of the guys in the high minors to match Arraez's OPS+ production. Any of Julien, Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, and Michael Helman are on the cusp of the major leagues. With Arraez clogging up 1B and DH, there would not have been a role for these players to receive a real shot in the Majors, barring a handful of injuries. Now, we can plug in Kiriloff as our everyday 1B against RHP with Miranda taking over 1B for Kiriloff against LHP and Farmer taking over 3B. Additionally, if any of the aforementioned guys tear the cover off the ball in Spring Training, they now have a shot to make the team out of the gate, receiving 2-3 starts each week rotating in at 3B, 2B, 1B, and DH. This front office seems to love positional flexibility, and sadly, Arraez no longer offers much outside of 1B.

Based on the title, I really thought this piece was going to be about giving Royce Lewis plenty of time to recover to avoid rushing him back.