cjvirnig

This proves definitively that the Twins were never really "in" on Correa. As the dust settles on the Carlos Correa chapter, I'm still left with one overriding question: as fans, how can we really trust the judgment of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine at this point? Their sin isn't coming up (woefully) short on their Plan A of signing Correa. Rather, their sin was having a totally incorrect and unrealistic Plan A, to begin with. By allowing themselves to be bamboozled down a rabbit hole from which there was no escape, Falvey and Levine ruined their opportunity to make the 2023 Twins a better baseball team (and severely compromised the club's chances of competing for a division title in the process). When you get something as catastrophically wrong as they did with the Correa Sweepstakes, why should we trust them to suddenly get it right next time? Of course, this looks even worse now that we know how Correa ended up with the Twins in the first place. It was actually Scott Boras who approached the Twins, not the other way around. The Twins were Boras's mark right from the start. And wouldn't you know, Falvey and Levine became wooed by the shiny object -- like a star-crossed lover. It's very difficult for me to see how this front office comes back from this. Sure, they'll make some trades. And by virtue of playing in MLB's weakest division, the Twins will probably have a chance to make the playoffs. But none of that absolves Falvey and Levine for this embarrassing boondoggle of an offseason. A year from now when they're formulating their new Plan A -- there's a pretty decent chance that it'll once again be the wrong Plan A.

Obviously, Rocco's use of the pitching staff is the biggest point of contention. Assuming the Twins continue to strategically pull their starters after 4-5 innings, it's absolutely paramount for the front office and coaching staff to get together and completely re-imagine the workflow of the staff. Namely: they need an iron-clad plan that will allow them to effectively bridge the middle innings to get to Lopez and Duran at the end. Option 1 would be to have clearly defined roles for everybody in the bullpen. This is unlikely, however, given the Twins' reliance on analytics and playing the matchups game. Option 2 would be to take a page out of the LA Dodgers playbook and re-think how the rotation and bullpen work together. My suggestion would be for the Twins to have a regular four-man rotation -- with the fifth spot and long relief roles being grouped together. I personally believe the Twins should sign (or trade for) another impact starting pitcher, but for the sake of this example, let's just go with who they currently have on the roster. Under this premise, their 2023 rotation could consist of Mahle, Gray, Ryan, and Maeda. After that -- Ober, Winder, and Woods Richardson would then be grouped together. Based on matchups, each of them would get to start some games in the #5 spot. But more importantly, they'd each be used in long relief to cover most of those middle innings. For some historical context, the Dodgers did this a few years ago when they had Maeda, Ryu, and Urias paired together this way. Sometimes Maeda would start. Sometimes Ryu would start. And sometimes Urias would start. But the most important aspect is that when the starter was removed, Dave Roberts had a very high-quality option to come in and bridge the game to Jansen at the end. Regardless of the specifics (maybe Ober is the #4 starter and it's actually Maeda who would get paired with Winder and Woods Richardson) -- the Twins need a much better process. In 2022, they had no such plan, other than removing the starters early and then simply relying on individual matchups night after night. As we saw, that approach failed miserably.

Still, nobody should downplay what a disaster the 2021 season has been. It has been arguably the most disappointing season in club history relative to expectations. The front office not only whiffed on its free agent pitching acquisitions, but it also whiffed on a few prospects that were traded away only to immediately find success with other clubs. By no means should anyone be fired -- and only rubes would be calling for that at this point. But a couple of key points certainly ARE debatable at this point. 1) This team has fallen light years behind the White Sox and while the Twins are living proof that fortunes can change quickly, it sure seems unlikely that the Twins are going to be able to supplant Chicago for at least 2-3 years. And, 2) Given how disastrously the 2021 season has gone across the board, it's also fair to question the idea that this front office has what it takes to be one of the truly elite units in the game. As Nick points out, they've proven to be wholly competent. And that's worth something, to be sure. But by no means have they proven themselves to be the type of elite front office that can usher the club to consistent quality year after year. Despite the high points of their tenure (2017, 2019, and probably 2020), there have also been a couple of terrible years (2018 and 2021). I suspect we'll learn a lot about the fortitude of this group over the course of the next 12 months.

It's not nihilistic, it's simply looking at the quantitative evidence and realizing that they've gotten quite a bit more wrong than they've gotten right during their tenure. 2018 was a dumpster fire. 2019 was awesome (despite their botching the trade deadline by getting an injured Sam Dyson instead of trading for a desperately needed starter), 2020 doesn't really count, and 2021 is a Chernobyl-like nuclear meltdown. If nothing else, the total lack of consistency from season to season and the violent ups and downs paints a picture of an administration that isn't in very firm control. Certainly, Falvey and Levine should not necessarily be buried for every single one of these missteps, but when it's all taken together as a whole, it's a pretty damning indictment. And if they're just going to let both Berrios and Buxton go for prospects -- good luck selling that to Twins fans.

I'll admit that my take on the front office is through a pessimistic lens whereas yours if from a more optimistic lens. But I still contend that when you add everything up, they've gotten quite a bit more wrong than they've gotten right. -- and that slide is only deepening at this point. In terms of internal prospects they undervalued -- it's more than just Baddoo and Wade. In fact, the ones that REALLY hurt are the pitching prospects they let get away. According to Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic, former Twins pitching prospect Luis Gil is now the #4 prospect in the Yankees organization. There is also Nick Anderson of the Rays, who has turned into a stud. And, finally, there is Huascar Ynoa for the Braves, whom the Twins traded in the infamous Jaime Garcia deal. What hurts is that these are all pitchers who are either succeeding at the Big League level -- or are either at (or near) the top of the farm system for their respective teams. And this comes at a time when the Twins entire pitching staff (particularly the bullpen) is a total disaster. And do we even need to revisit the Ryan Pressly trade that Falvey and Levine consummated? As for free agents, again, I'm just not as optimistic as you are. Sure, Michael Pineda has been a fine addition. But let's not forget that he also is chiefly responsible for sabotaging the team's 2019 playoff run with his 50 game PED ban. And while it's true that Falvey and Levine had nothing whatsoever to do with that -- it IS true that the front office made one of its most egregious errors by deciding to not add a proven arm at the 2019 trade deadline. That was a mistake many of us were lamenting in real-time because it was the exact same mistake Terry Ryan always made during the Gardenhire-era. That failure to bolster the rotation at the deadline crippled the Twins when Pineda got popped with the suspension. So much so, that unproven rookie Randy Dobnak was forced to make the start in Game 2 at Yankee Stadium; something that should've been totally unthinkable for a 100+ win club. That was such an unforgivable blunder that my SF Giants buddies STILL rib me about that to this very day. JA Happ, Matt Shoemaker, and Alex Colome have quite literally been three of the worst free-agent signings in the history of the franchise -- and those were Falvey and Levine's biggest FA additions of last offseason! And again, we can attempt to let them off the hook by doing a deep dive into looking at the analytics, but if a pitching-starved team like the Angels let someone like Shoemaker walk away, there's probably a good reason for that. Ditto for the Chicago White Sox letting Alex Colome walk away. And as for Josh Donaldson -- I guess I can give them some credit for that...but again, it needs to be emphasized that Donaldson was NOT the Twins primary target. In fact, it was only because Falvey and Levine totally whiffed on signing Zack Wheeler that they ended up overpaying for Josh Donaldson (who 100% would've stayed in Atlanta had the Braves matched the Twins offer). At the end of the day, this front office will have every chance in the world to prove me wrong. Perhaps they will end up increasing their offer to Byron Buxton and succeed in signing him to an extension. But if both Berrios and Buxton are traded -- then it's undoubtedly true that the team is going into the cellar for a full rebuild. And I personally have very, very little faith that this front office has the acumen or wherewithal to turn the franchise around.

I take no pleasure in saying this, but it's certainly beginning to feel as though Falvey and Levine are losing control of the franchise. Other than the Nelson Cruz signing, this front office has been pretty abysmal. They've made one horrendously bad free agent signing after another, routinely undervalued their own prospects only to see many of them flourish in other organizations, and are now on the verge of completely and utterly botching contract extension talks with the club's two best players: Berrios and Buxton. The ugly truth is that the one-off success of the 2019 season covered up what has been a mostly inept administration. There's no chance anyone is going to be fired or replaced -- so these guys will have the opportunity to conduct what's looking like will be a near total rebuild. But for my two cents, I can't see how a front office that has been so wrong on so many different fronts is going to successfully pull this thing off.

It's logical to assume the Twins will only be able to acquire futures for the likes of Cruz, Pineda, or Happ. However, any trade package for someone like Jose Berrios needs to cross a certain bar. Namely, the Twins have every right to expect a package containing a replacement pitching prospect who is near MLB ready. If Berrios suitors fail to cross that bar, then he should absolutely not be moved.

31-29, third place.

Even if the Twins are basically done adding position players, there's no reason why they couldn't (or shouldn't) use some of their excess payroll money on a couple big name relief pitchers. Also, it's been extremely disappointing to see that the Twins do not seem to have any interest in entering the JT Realmuto sweepstakes. Certainly they'd have to gauge his interest and whether he'd be willing to sign an extension, but addressing the catcher position and the bullpen are things that could be done while still engaging in a mostly "stand pat" strategy everywhere else.

Bank on Victor Martinez regressing in 2015. Last year was a career year and there's nowhere for him to go but down. In general I'm a huge seller on the Detroit Tigers.

Totally agreed. Obviously there is politics involved here. Pelfrey was already plenty sore at being demoted to the bullpen last week. If the Twins had called up Trevor May, it likely would have created an issue in the clubhouse. But since Santana's suspension is unpaid, the Twins could afford to eat Pelfrey's salary and ship him out if necessary.

It's extraordinarily disappointing that the Twins have opted for Mike Pelfrey over Trevor May. In general, this spring has been extremely worrisome in terms of the Twins being backed into roster decisions based on economic considerations. This is an organization that owes its fans more than that. Unless the club genuinely feels that Mike Pelfrey gives them the best chance to win (in which case I'd be worried about their sanity), I would expect them to add the best player available. Santana's suspension is a crushing blow, but it could also be a huge opportunity for a guy like Trevor May. Or even Alex Meyer.