jay
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Everything posted by jay
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Second paragraph, spot on and I won't both trying to cite any reason. First paragraph, partially true but I do see them as different. Are the Twins less aggressive with promotions than a team like the Mets? Yes, that's reasonable to conclude... but I wouldn't use that study to make the other statement. In either fashion, the study doesn't prove either approach to be advantageous.
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Not all teams lost 90+ games for the last 4 years with league-worst rotations. I can agree with the more reasonable "less aggressive" than "a definitive pattern of delaying our young players longer than any other team". I guess I don't see handfuls of prospects that have been held back. The "less aggressive" piece has maybe meant a few months for a few guys, but I don't quite buy it to be as big of an issue as it's made out to be. Either way, here's to seeing May pitch for the Twins in April (and May, and beyond).
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"Defend" is too broad for my intent. "Context" would seem more my intent. You also name Gibson, Meyer and May like their 2015 versions are the same as their 2013 versions, which isn't true. A BP study from several years ago to declare "demonstrably" is a stretch. I've seen that study before and it misses the context of viable prospects to promote. The win-loss results from 2011-2014 are a demonstrable example that the Twins didn't have prospects or talent worth promoting rapidly in that timeframe. If the AAAA guys is a repeatedly self-inflicted wound from which you want to see different behavior, isn't that what the Twins are doing here? Adding better talent so we aren't relying on AAAA guys as soon as there's a need? Meyer, May, Pelfrey and Milone are all better names to look at than the list you provided. I think their doing exactly what you're asking for and it's still in how you're looking at it. If Pelfrey goes north in the rotation over a healthy May... yeah, we'll both be pissed.
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I'm avoiding the rest of this thread, but have to point out that is a poor and lazy utilization of WAR. Edit: LaRoche appears to be taking over Dunn's spot as primary DH / occasional 1B. Simply comparing their offense would be more appropriate. Last 3 seasons, average wRC+: Dunn = 111 LaRoche = 118
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The difference between Meyer and the guys you've cited is blatantly clear when you look at their MiLB track records. While Meyer's stuff is electric and he has potential, we need to get past this falsehood of what other young aces have done. Meyer quite simply hasn't done that. I agree with your concepts around development. I don't agree with making conclusions that Meyer is doomed to the minors and May won't get starts either. Those are some HUGE jumps requiring some big assumptions around ALL the veteran starters.
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One spot out of spring training. A few posts back, we were talking about the backup QB -- i.e. the guy who doesn't win the job out of spring training... And he'll have FIVE "QBs" he can replace, not just one like a football team. Not making the rotation out of spring training isn't nearly as dire as being a backup QB. If you're the #6 guy, you ARE going to start at some point that season. We've seen the Twins change up the rotation every year recently for injury or poor performance. Also, in those years, I think the Twins had AAAA guys they wanted to look at and the argument of a prospect being ready to pitch wasn't as strong. I think the evidence is lopsided only because of the way you're looking at it.
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Where is Twins Daily headed over the next year? Any plans for additions, special features, new partnerships, etc?
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I'm a prospect guy. They excite me. However, I don't quite understand what the issue is here. It's impossible to say the Twins have blocked out opportunity for their top pitching prospects. There's still a rotation spot available for whoever shows they should have it. There's still the inevitability of injury or poor performance. What's the issue here? May and Meyer should both be guaranteed a rotation spot this spring no matter what? Really?
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Torii has certainly been consistently better with the stick, although that is subject to change with 39-40 year olds. Alex is probably faster and better in the field, although ankle injuries don't tend to help there. I don't see enough difference between the two to really worry about it. The Twins were able to get Torii to sign to play here. Hard to know if Rios would have been interested. Pretty clear that it would've taken more than 1/$11M. I think both got more $$ than I would've expected. Same for Brett Anderson.
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Who is going to have a big season in 2015 and why?
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With the addition of a corner outfielder and a starting pitcher so far this offseason, what's the biggest remaining need? How should they address that need?
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The parts about $50M, dead weight, underperforming assets and payroll allocation sound pretty financial to me... To be perfectly honest, this feels like trying to discredit a dissenting opinion.
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I'd add the distinction of ANY FO, nothing specific about the Twins. However, the important part is that doesn't stop all of us from sharing our opinions. I would agree though that the common refrain around the front office of (x franchise) being full of un-informed, illogical idiots whose experiences pale to our opinions is far overplayed.
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Assessing the plan and moves is great. When that turns into "they had the money and didn't spend it", it starts to sound like the #payrollwhiners that Mackey talks about.
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So they had money and didn't spend it? Hmmmmm.... No one on this thread has argued that......That isn't at all the point anyone here is making.......
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Great. Does that mean there is some similarity in the approach they took to rebuild, despite the Cubs capacity for significantly higher payrolls?
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I disagree. Payroll and talent acquisition methods are pretty closely intertwined. We can't criticize the Twins for not signing Cubans (or others) without recognizing there's a connection to payroll (and whining).
