mlhouse

I fail to see any "aggressive promotion" that you speak of. Baddoo? He spent two years at the Rookie level and then advanced one level a year in 2018 and 2019. Miranda? He spent two years at the Rookie level. He got promited to A+ second half of last year but then restarted there. Here is news for you, this "aggressive promotion" isn't aggressive promotion. It is at best normal promotion. The task of minor league baseball lisn't that they "do well" at a level, it is to develop them as players. The Twins have done a piss poor job of that all the while moving their players slowly through the system.

I often demonstrate how the Twins minor league system is much more conservative in player movement than other organizations. Lots of people disagree, but I want to show side by side two players that pitched in yesterday's AA game: Devin Smeltzer and Cody Stashak. Here are links to their minor league stats to follow along: http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=656970#/career/R/pitching/2019/ALL http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=664054#/career/R/pitching/2019/ALL Both players were college draft picks. Stashak by the Twins in the 13th round in 2013 and Smeltzer by the Dodgers' in the 5th round one year later. They both pitched in their draft short season in the Rookie League. They both began their first full professional season in A ball. After 10 starts with a 3.78 ERA Smeltzer was promoted to A+ ball and made 15 more starts at that level. Stashak was likewise promoted to A+ level but after 17 starts at Cedar Rapids and only made 3 starts at A+ level. It is here were they diverged. In his 3rd professional season, Smeltzer was promoted to AA and when the Twins acquired him in the Dozier trade they kept him at that level. In Stashak's 3rd professional season the Twins returned him to Ft Myers to repeat A+ level, calling him up to AA to make 3 relief appearances. In Stashak's 4th season the Twins again started him in A+ ball, but this time moving him to AA after just 2 appearances to AA were Smeltzer would join him later after the trade. Of course, the Twins being the Twins, the kept Smeltzer at AA in his 4th and he is joined by Stashak, starting his 5th campaing. But Stashak is almost a full year older than Smeltzer and is pitching at the same level with significantly less experience at the level. Their minor league performance is very similar, if anything Stashak has a slightly better statistical profile. But, I would argue that if the players would have switched the teams that drafted them, Stashak would have advanced faster rather than Smeltzer, In Smeltzer's career, brief as it is, the Dodger's advanced him at least a level every season. The first season that Smeltzer did not advance a level from the year previous, he was in the Twins organization. Stashak followed the Twins normal: repeating levels and slow promotions. I get that some will claim I am "cherry picking", and I used this example just because both players pitched in the AA game yesterday. But, the fact is this is a consistent pattern the Twins organization uses.

Is 2017 7th rounder Ryley Widell going to pitch this season?

Shows you why looking at Spring Training stats is meaningless.

One of the biggest problems the Twins had starting in 2011 was that Ron Gardenhire was the manager. I get that they were not going to fire him after the 2010 94 win season. That was probably a very good managerial job. The problem was after the 2011 63-99 season it was so obvious that the team needed a manager that could rebuild the squad and Gardenhire wasn't it. Keeping him on the job for 4 consecutive 90+ loss seasons was a huge mistake that set this franchise back. Where is Aaron Hicks career if he doesn't start with a manager that had absolutely zero patience for young players and their mistakes? I would also argue that even though Molitor pulled 80+ win seasons in 15 and 17, almost miracles, he also wasn't the right guy for the job for a rebuilding team either. So, the fact is, the Twins for the past 8 seasons have not hired correctly at the top. I think they finally have this season, but that remains to be seen.

1. I think the defensive metrics for catchers, particularly "pitch framing" are way over rated. 2. Whatever Castro's net defensive value over Garver is, at best it is cancelled out by Garver being the much better hitter. 3. I personally do not think that all of the statistical measures are essentially additive. In baseball, most events are chains. One guy singles. Another moves him to 2nd on a FC. Another guy gets a hit and drives in the run. So, a team that has 7 strong hitters can afford to have a couple of limited hitting elite defenders (Castro is far from elite) because the top 7 hitters will statistically make many more combinations of events that will create runs. But on weak teams, you just cannot afford to have such negative value hitters. 4. Giving Castro much credit for the 85 win season is a stretch.

One other note... It was really irritating that the scoreboard had every non-roster Tampa player's name up on the board, (although they did make a mistake on a guy), but didn't have that information for the Twins non-roster guys. Not a big deal because they announced the substitutions, but I thought it a bit disrespectful to our scrubs.

Fun ST Home Opener last night. Buxton's home run was really encouraging. It was with 2 strikes against a pitcher that although he was a lefty seemed to have some crafty stuff, throwing 94 then 74 off speed. Bux adjusted and drilled the home run. His single was also hard hit. Rosario's two hits were also well earned, as in both of those ABs he fouled off pitch after pitch before getting two he hit very well. If the team does not bring WIllians Astudillio north it is their mistake. This guy makes stuff happen. He is a good hitter with a good approach at the plate (although he could walk more). The guy is just a smart, smart baseball player that brings added versatility. One game observation sample in spring training, but he absolutely controlled the running game. He threw out a runner at second and with snap throws kept the runners that were on base honest. Hard to evaluate pitchers since they only pitched one inning. Kohl Stewart started and I thought looked pretty good. He three 91-93 fastball with reasonable day 1 control. Slider was at 86. He missed some bats with his slider, which was a good sign for him. Did not throw any offspeed pitches. Lewis Thorpe inning was a struggle. He seemed to have good early control of a 74-76 mph curve that he threw for strikes. His fastball was just mediocre though, 89-91 and he did not have good command of it. He was hit pretty hard. He looked in better shape on the mound than when I had watched him previously with the Miracle. Trevor Hildenberger looked pretty good. He kept the hitters off balance with a 74 mph off speed pitch and everyone was behind his 89 mph fastball. If he can step back into form that would be a good thing for the pen. But, the pitcher who looked absolutely dominant was Fernando Romero. He hit 97, was consistent 95-97 with his fb, his slider looked unhittable, and the one hit was a little seeing eye bouncer. I am loathe to move a guy who is a starter to the pen, but Fernando's stuff looked so dominant I think if he can demonstrate the right approach he just needs to be penciled in as our closer, and he could become one of the best ever with his stuff.

I watched him pitch one game in Ft Myers and he was terrible. His velocity wasn't in the 95 range, more in the 91-93 range and he did not have the same command of his fastball as Kohl Stewart in the games I saw him pitch. Like you said, he did not appear to be athletic at all, and he made a terrible play on a bunt that just made him look bad. He looked out of shape and really labored on the mound. Maybe that was connected to the fact that he was injured and missed all of 2015 and 2016, but the Twins have been real conservative with his innings and pitch counts which could make some of his statistical success a mirage. But, then, he only gave up 27 runs that year (2017) in Ft Myers in 16 starts so maybe the game I watched was an aberration.

In many cases I think the Twins should "rush" their prospects quicker through the minors as part of the rebuilding process. But, that view isn't a blanket across every prospect. I think players like Baddoo should be moved slower because the baseball skills are not as fully developed as the athletic skills. The OBP - SLG trade off is one symptom of this claim. Give the kid time tof figure it out a bit in the minors and he might be able to combine the two. At the same time, I think the minor league competition can develop bad habits that you can get away with against lower competition but becomes apparent in the big leagues. So, moving a guy like him up the ladder one step at a time makes sense.

No way do I give up Kirilloff for Realmuto. IF the Twins are ever going to be good, Kirilloff needs to be good. Realmuto is a good catcher, but a team that has him as their best hitter is a 58-103 team. So, if you trade away the best pure hitter in your minor league system for this level of a hitter/catcher I just don't think that is the best utilization of your assets. The only way I do a trade like that is if it isn't centered on Lewis or Alex. Rooker is about the best player I would include and that is debatable, and the only reason I trade him is that we "stacked" the defensive spectrum Rooker fits to the extent that he isn't going to see the majors this season, and it can also be argued that getting ost of CJ Cron's 2018 is about what our expectations for ROoker should be. So, maybe Rooker, Arreaz, and a mid-prospect arm would be a respectable trade.

Well, by the time the Twins get done "developing" guys like Stashak and Alcala they will be about 34 years old. Stashak will turn 25 by mid-season and has only reached AA. Since he started last season at FTM, the Twins will almost certainly keep him in AA for the entire season. Sean Poppen, Randy LeBlanc, Tyler Jay, Tyler Wells are in the same boat. Because this team has not "processed" through the current wave of Romero, Gonsalves, Moya, Mejia, Stewart, Thorpe, these guys really have nowhere to go. Tyler Wells is a guy that has a career minor league ERA of 2.82 with 288 strikeouts in 255 innings. A college draft pick in 2016, he is already 24 years old. Randy LeBlanc is a 2014 college draft pick and he will turn 27 in March. He has a 2.92 career minor league ERA and his highest level in the Twins organization is AA. Stashak's career minor league ERA is 3.14. I guess I see this as a huge problem for the Twins. Having too much talent isn't a problem, but if you are not going to maximize the value of your farm system it is a problem. Although I see a few Miracle games a year, you see some pitchers and not others. I have never seen Wells pitch so I cannot comment on his stuff. But, statistically I cannot see how any rebuilding organization with a lack of arms would not have him on the cusp of a major league debut, but with the Twins he is probably several years away. And, as always I will repeat my refrain. If I were an agent for a college draft pick, I would request the Twins not to draft my players and if they did, I would advise them not to sign. The Twins move their older draft picks, and all of their draft picks for that matter, too slowly through the minors and do not do enough development of their players in the system. Each year you spend repeating levels of the minors you were successful at the year before is an injury risk you take before you ever get a chance of a major league contract; each year they deliberately leave you behind is another year you have to wait to get to free agency. They would rather bring in players like Matt Belisle and this year Martin Perez than give their own drafted players a shot at a major league spot. The facts do not lie on this matter.

Duensing signed a 2 year, 7 million contract before last season after he has a 68 appearance, 2.74 ERA in 2017.

The future of this team is the Lewis-Kirilloff-Berrios core with the hope that prospects from the set of Rooker, Gordon, Romero, Thorpe, Gonsalves, Enlow, Larnach, Jeffers, Arraez amongst others can play strong supporting roles. Then hope that at least a couple of the previous highly touted group Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco can join Rosario to fill out that team. Make a smart trade here and there, find a gem in Rule 5, add a hustle guy like WIllians Astudillio and that is the team you hope has a chance. If those prospects were selected well and we get some good luckwith the other players, then we have a chance to put together a competitive team. If they were not selected well and/or we have some bad luck, then it might be a continuation of the same. But, we are not going to build a team on these discards. That is what you wait for once you get your group of prospects established to fill holes. Using historical Twins, guys like Chili Davis, Carl Willis, Juan Berengar, Shane Mack, and Brian Harper.

I have been raising the upside point for years. In my mind you have two options. OPtion A: Bring up the young guys, acknowledge your team is going to be bad. Let them develop and hopefully they are actually good players and we will become a truly competitive team. Option B: Keep bringing in these mediocre players on short term contract, pushing back the time for your young prospects to get experience, and have great 82 win seasons and think that is just great. I guess there is an argument that you can blend the options, but the problem with that is there is only one ball. We can't have Stephen Gonsalves starting games if Martin Perez is. And if Gonsalves isn't starting and getting the development/experience now, he is going to have to do it later. Right now, we have so many pitchers in the same spot: they have moved through the minor leagues relatively successfully and they need the opportunity to get experience at the next, and highest levels. Gonsalves, Romero, Meija, Moya, Stewart, Vazques have only been given brief glances at the MLB level. Lewis Thorpe and several others are sitting just outside that door too. Give them a chance to show their stuff. Keep them if they demonstrate they can compete at the level. Move them if they can't. The point I will make, again, is that players like Perez and most of the other "free agent" signings we have made ARE ALWAYS AVAILABLE. Every off season. So, lets go full rebuild NOW, get this over with, the "new" FO will have a couple more high draft picks, and then go add these mediocre veterans competitive teams need for depth and innings.

Just amazing. The more I look at this Front Office the more I ask myself "What are these guys thinking". This guy is a mediocre pitcher at best. Check out his minor league career. Compared to Adalberto Mejia or Stephen Gonsalves, Perez's minor league statistics do not hold water. If Martin Perez would have been in the Twins minor league system it is doubtful that he would have even made the major league level yet, much less make it as a 21 year old international signing. the Twins have a long, long list of guys that are both starters and relievers they need to give a pronounced opportunity to before they should hand this guy the ball and $3.5 fn million dollars. Every one of the following players has significantly more upside than Martin Perez and should be given every opportunity to achieve that. Fernando Romero Stephen GOnsalves Adalberto Moya Kohl Stewart Lewis Thorpe Gabriel Moya Andrew Vasquez Every one of those guys has minor stellar minor league careers compared to Martin Perez. Give them the chance to LOSE a job on the pitching staff. Then when we build a more competitive team through development and evaluation, if you need a left hander in the rotation or bullpen, guys like Martin Perez are always around. Save the $3.5 million. Give the guys, many of htem with HUGE FN upsides the chance. WHY COMMIT TO MEDIOCRITY AT BEST? IS THAT WHAT THIS FRONT OFFICE IS PROMISING US OVER THE LONG RUN?

And the Indians had a team that could compete. So having a veteran pitcher on their staff actually made sense. When the Twins picked Belisle off waiversin 2018, they were not a competing team and having a 38 year old pitcher made Zero sense. When Belisle pitched terribly, it made even less than zero sense to keep him on the staff. And when he continued to pitch beyond terrible, how does it occur to the manager and front office to continue to bring him into the game????? Seriously, how can I have respect for a front office that does this? If I pitch John Curtiss in those right handed relief appearances instead of Matt Belisle I actually GAIN something for the organization even if Curtiss is as bad as Belisle. And since he probably wasn't going to be as bad (a 9+ ERA) we probably come out statistically better anyways. Again, why does the organization have patience with a 38 year old guy who has zero future with the team, giving him 25 appearances he, to use a phrase others use, "did not earn" while they appear the be beyond anxious to kick prospects WHO HAVE EARNED THEIR WAY TO A CHANCE AT THE MAJOR LEAGUES, out the door????? Between that and not giving other prospects even a chance, I have to wonder what these people are trying to do? WE are not going to build a competitive team signing 30+ year old players on the abject downside of their careers to one year deals.

It isn't a contradiction at all. I was convinced that Garbe did not have the bat speed to play in the majors within 4 at bats. But, I wasn't going to cut him after 4 at bats either. I wasn't going to not give him a chance at higher levels of the minors by putting some 30+ year old has been in the Quad Cities outfield so our A minor league team could win a few additional minor league games. I am going to understand what the objectives of the team should be, and trying to develop and evaluate Garbe was really important. I think the Twins did the proper course with Garbe. They moved him each year from A, to A+ for two years, and a final season in AA. They gave him 2,500 of minor league plate appearances, let him reach his level of complete ineptitude and gave him a substantial amount of opportunities at that level. In that game, a Twins prospect I thought had way more potential than Garbe was Kevin West. West was our 16th round draft pick in that same 1999 draft. A huge guy at 6-2, 225 West developed into his power potential as a minor league player. Moving slowly through the minors, by 2004 he had a season mostly in AA were he hit 29 home runs with a ,899 OPS. He followed that season up by hitting 20 home runs in 425 at bats in AAA Rochester with a .832 OPS. I would think that a guy that developed that level of power with a .350 OPB would have at least got a look at the end of the 2005 season on a team that was 16 games out? Fifteen at bats or so. WHat does that hurt? Would the team have lost 81 games instead of 79 if they brought West up and at least gave him a cup of coffee. West was injured the next year. Left the organization and never played as well as he did in 2004 or 2005, never got a chance at thebig leagues.

Yes, I am a hopeless optimist with my prediction.

The main problem with the baseball draft is that the level of competition is varied. A guy like B.J. Garbe might look like a future major league all-star because he is playing against high schoolers in the state of Washington and it is virtually impossible to extrapolate from that performance. When I watched Garbe in rookie league ball (Elizabethton vs. the Danville Braves) I could tell he was limited in four at bats. Now, instead of inept high school pitchers he was facing drafted players only and you could see he did not have the bat speed. At the same time, you could see that Tim Spooneybarger had a future because he not only had a draftable fastball, but could change speeds with control. Spooneybarger was a 29th round draft pick. BJ Garbe the 6th overall. But it was Tim that was in the major leagues 2 years later and Garbe never got above AA. What I think major league baseball should do is draft from the Rookie leagues. Instead of drafting in June, once a player is eligible for the draft they would be assigned to a rookie league team. THe major leagues would pay them to play from a common fund. Then, at the conclusion of the short leagues, the teams would draft based on the scouting a league were the players are all of a "draftable" quality. I get there are some things that would have to be worked out. For example, most of the top level players would refuse to play and I have actually talked to a couple of former major league executives and htey hate the idea. Their position is that they have their own draft secrets and don't want them exposed. For example, the Twins drafted Justin MOurneau in the 3rd round the year they drafted BJ Garbe. But, in the end, what would have happened is that instead of drafting Garbe 6th overall and giving him $1.5 million, they would (or could have) selected Mourneau there and given him the bonus and Garbe would have been a later round.

1. Not sure how they are convinced that Curtiss isn't a MLB caliber player in just 15 innings stretched over 2 seasons. I get that they have a good idea, but to be convinced that is stretching it. 2. This is the same front office that had some idea that 38 year old Matt Belisle is a MLB caliber player and gave him the ball in 25 games (15% of their total games, much more because he was picked up mid-seaason) to a stellar 9.13 ERA. Again, why not give the ball to a young guy like Curtiss and Andrew Vasquez and see what they can do. YOu already know what Belisle will do. THen, if you give each of them 25+ appearances you can be convinced. The other thing, why do they have such patience with a guy like Matt Belisle, a 38 year old journeyman who will not impact the future of this franchise, and such little patience with John Curtiss, and no patience with players like Luke Bard??? It is baffling to me.

For those saying this is a lottery ticket: LOTTERY TICKETS ARE FOR SUCKERS. John Curtiss is just another in a line of players the Twins have never given a proper shot. They only gave him 15 total innings spread over 2 season. I get that the Twins goal is to sign every declining free agent above tha age of 33 to one year deals, and I am not claiming that John Curtiss is the next coming of Lee Smith, nor that Daniel Ozoria has zero percent chance at becoming a servicable player (it is about 1.23%), just that the Twins front office is not doing much to prepare this team to be a competitive team in the future. TO become a competitive team, we need a guy like John Curtiss to step up and become a viable piece of the bullpen. Maybe Curtiss wasn't the guy, but Parker isn't either even if he has a good year this year and if Curtiss wasn't the guy then we needed to plug in the other minor league relievers and see if they pan out.

Here is the other issue: What is the point of a one year deal? If he sucks, then it was money wasted. If he doesn't suck, he earned his way out of Minnesota purgatory and will get a better deal somewhere else. Maybe we can dump him for peanuts at the trade deadline but that is a waste of $14 million..... Instead, the better route to go is trying to develop our own internal closer. But, the sad fact is, this organization has done a piss poor bad job of developing closers particularly so since we used high level draft picks on hard throwing college relievers with absolutely nothing to show for. The next best route is to make a trade, maybe even a prospect for prospect trade with another organization, and give that guy the opportunity to hold the job. Notice I did not say "earn". Finding another arm off the scrap heap on a one year deal does nothing to move the needle forward.

1. The Berrios, Franks Viola, and the comments about debut's stinking is why I favor rushing prospects in a rebuilding environment. Get them up quicker so you can be more patient with their initial exposure to major league competition. Since you are losing games anyways, why not. It took Frank Viola two year of poor pitching and ERA's above 5.00 to become Frankie Viola, WS MVP and Cy Young candidate/winner. But because he did not spend much time in the minors and the team was truly competitive, they could afford to keep putting him out there. The Twins are in the same position now. 2. All of these glowing reports on Lewis Thorpe, I must have watched him pitch his poorest games of his career. When I have seen him his fastball wasn't anything special and his command of secondary pitches non-existent. He also looked remarkably unathletic and botched plays in the field. Then I see his overall stats and his reviews, and wonder how he is the same guy

It is true that this was mostly the previous front office, but not all of it. In addition, the current front office is repeating most of the previous groups actions. As far as not knowing what was addressed, true. But again, whatever was addressed and how htey did it failed. That this is a common result for Twins prospects has to be troubling.