stringer bell

I don't think Pavano, Liriano, or Baker will be back. The year after rehab is typically poor for TJ patients so getting anything from Baker would be a stunner. He will be a free agent, as well. An innings eater coming off a season when he didn't eat innings is of little value. I don't expect many will offer much for Pavano, but the rebuilding Twins shouldn't take an interest unless he is truly dirt cheap. If Liriano isn't traded, he will probably net the Twins a draft pick, but I can't see the Twins outbidding everyone for Francisco on the open market and it would make zero sense for Frankie to sign an extension with free agency so close. I think Gibson will have a chance to make the rotation out of the spring. If his recovery is complete, he will go the the AFL and if he pitches acceptably, he'll be in line to compete for a spot. My plan for rotation 2013: Diamond is there. The best of the rotation for the balance of 2012 (De Vries, Walters, Deduno, Blackburn ) gets the edge for a spot. The Twins sign one guy in free agency who gets a spot and trade for a guy this month who is pencilled in for a spot. The final spot comes from the farm with Gibson the favorite if healthy and effective for the balance of 2012.

Plouffe hasn't homered since before the All-Star break and considering how many he hit in June and early July, one would have to consider this a drought. However, he is carrying a 16? game hitting streak and has fielded his position better and better (IMHO). In my view, things are normalizing. He will hit home runs, but I doubt he'll approach 40 and he may not even hit 30. The batting average is going up and his OBP is remaining reasonable. Without home runs, of course, the slugging is decreasing, but I think he is now moving toward the reasonable range there, rather than the inflated number he had two weeks ago. So far, the disappointing thing has been his performance with runners on base. I think he might be getting himself out too often and the pitchers aren't going to feed him a meat fastball. Overall, I think the Twins have lucked themselves into a good third baseman after the total disappointment of Danny Valencia #22.

Surprised and excited to see that Joe Benson is back at New Britain and has started out 2-3 with a double. Benson has always been one of my favorites and it appears he has recovered from his injury. He's hitting well, so he might be back at Rochester soon. Benson has played in the GCL, for the Miracle in the Florida State League, for the Rock Cats in New Britain and for Rochester. If he returns to form, perhaps he can play at five levels this year.

Liriano has been erratic and unreliable. He will be a free agent after the season with no guarantee that the Twins will sign him. Please, Terry Ryan, get fair value.

Diamond wasn't very good in the majors in '11, but he wasn't very good at Rochester, either. Hendriks has great numbers at Rochester, while not giving the Twins a chance in almost all of his starts in Minny. Perhaps next month Liam will get his third chance this year (after a Liriano trade?). Maybe he will take advantage of the opportunity as Diamond has.

Sell low candidates: Morneau, Pavano, Valencia. Don't trade them because they bring back only a fraction of their real value. Sell high candidate: Willingham--don't trade him if you want FAs to come to Minnesota. However, I can't see him sustaining his slugging for the whole year. I think that if the Twins can get fair value for Liriano, Span and Capps, they should pull the trigger on all three.

I expect Span, Capps, and Liriano to be gone. If Pavano gets back and pitches effectively in August, they may trade him at the waiver deadline. Morneau's injury history, performance and contract probably make him untradeable.

According to what I can find, Hendriks has the lowest ERA and WHIP of any pitcher in the IL with more than 60 innings. His ERA in the American League is exceeded by only Blackburn and Marquis of those with over 30 innings. So basically, he is the best starter in the IL and the worst in the American League. BTW, that is a sweet 130+ innings contributed by Blackburn, Marquis and Hendriks. 135.2 IP 197 H 46 BB 65 K and a WHIP of over 1.8

Here are the lines of four starting pitchers who have split time between Rochester and Minnesota: Diamond Roch-- 34.2 IP 1.21 WHIP 7 BB 26 K 2.60 ERA Minn-- 79.0 IP 1.18 WHIP 12 BB 45 K 2.62 ERA Hendriks Roch-- 60.1 IP .85 WHIP 14 BB 48 K 1.79 ERA Minn-- 38.1 IP 1.75 WHIP 10 BB 23 K 7.04 ERA De Vries Roch-- 70.0 IP 1.21 WHIP 10 BB 50 K 4.37 ERA Minn-- 30.0 IP 1.10 WHIP 8 BB 21 K 3.00 ERA Walters Roch-- 42.1 IP 1.20 WHIP 8 BB 29 K 2.76 ERA Minn-- 36.2 IP 1.53 WHIP 14 BB 23 K 5.40 ERA Diamond has basically done just as well with the Twins as with the Red Wings. De Vries has done better with the Twins. Walters has better numbers with the Red Wings, and the difference for Hendriks is dramatic. He looks like a world beater at AAA and has been terrible as a major leaguer. All four guys throw not much better than an average velocity fastball, have limited free passes and feature a mix without an outstanding pitch. Why has AAA success carried over for Diamond, but not Hendriks? How has De Vries managed to put together a few good starts with the Twins? I do realize the sample sizes are pretty small. Hendriks Rochester numbers and Diamond's Twins' numbers are fairly substantial. Walters' Twin numbers were skewed by a zero out multi-run outing in which he left with a disabling injury.

Terry Ryan is not young (h#(( he's my age) and his length of stay as GM is undetermined (I believe he's still officially interim GM) so I think the Twins will want to bolster their roster for 2013 with an eye on the years after that. As shanewahl said, they need to acquire a pitcher with a chance to be a starter in trade either now or in the offseason and it's probably easier to pry a near-ready starter from a team now. They also need to sign somebody who is at least a step up from Marquis or today's Blackburn and then take their chances on what is in the system. I think Liriano is gone one way or another, I think Diamond gets a spot in the rotation unless he is injured and the Twins have to finda couple of guys from their organization.

Two things, Liriano is a free agent. The Twins will have no control over Liriano. They can make a qualifying offer, which would guarantee them a draft pick, but they also would be on the hook for a $12M salary, which I think is too much for the enigmatic Frankie. It makes zero sense to count on Baker for anything in 2013. Traditionally the year after TJ is ineffective and inconsistent (Joe Nathan last year, Liriano in 2008). Gibson is going to be at this point this summer and fall and we should expect him in top form in the spring of '13. Baker has an expensive option that should not be picked up. If the Twins want him for 2014 and beyond, they will have to offer him a multi-year deal in his TJ recovery year.

Not that it really matters, but I think it would be somewhat of a revolving door, with Doumit, Mastro and Parmelee all getting time there. Carson and Wilken Ramirez are doing pretty well at Rochester and another good month from Hicks might be enough to give him a shot. I am for Parmelee getting more major league at-bats although I don't think it will do any harm to give him another 200 PAs at Rochester.

While I am beginning to despise having Butera catch Liriano every time, I have mixed opinions about Mauer. IMHO, how much Mauer catches is a much tougher call. If Mauer is behind the plate too much, he misses games because he gets beat up, If Mauer catches too little, his value at a premium defensive position is not maximized. Gardenhire has used Mauer about 50% of the time as a catcher, I guess I'd like to see him there a bit more. The nonsense of Butera being Liriano's catcher should stop, but in a lost season, it bothers me a bit less.

Diamond has been a nice revelation. The jury is out on the other guys called up from the minors, but De Vries was very impressive against Texas and Walters has had a couple of moments. I didn't see Deduno's first start and since he is 29 and in his third organization in two years, I have to be skeptical, but it appears he has enough stuff to get big leaguers out. Hendriks has been a disappointment. The five guys slated to be the rotation are probably history to the Twins by Opening Day 2013 (Blackburn might be around because he's under contract), so the task is to basically rebuild a whole rotation to be ready by the opener in 2013.

I think the Twins will get Lombardozzi at some point in the next 12.5 months. He's actually a pretty good stopgap, who could make Casilla and Carroll obselete. The point, though, is pitching. They would have to get Lombardozzi in addition to an arm.

Why not mess with the lineup? This team is going nowhere. For the team to have any chance of contending next year, they need more pitching. Trade the most expendible pieces and get pitching.

Get Frankie his starts vs. bad offenses. Maybe his value will go up so that the Twins can get a useful starter for the last half of this decade.

Long term, Parmelee should be a 1B, but given what exists right now, if he is ready for the majors he will probably have to play RF. In the almost three weeks until the trade deadline, perceptions can change. Right now, I don't know if there is a functional replacement for Revere in RF. However, by the 31st we may have four or five guys knocking on the door. Long term, there are a lot of good prospects to fill the Twins outfield. One has to believe that enough of them will pan out to part with a pretty nice asset (Span) in order to strengthen the pitching. J-Dog, regarding the Twins' power and power hitters: They are near the bottom in team home runs. They are the only team in MLB with two players accounting for more than 50% of their home runs. Mauer and Doumit, despite having enough at-bats to qualify are in single digits in homers past the middle of the season and only in Minnesota can that be considered a power hitter. The Twins are carrying two guys who haven't homered in more than 500 at-bats (Carroll and Revere) and have Span and Dozier who don't project to get double digit homers in this season. They need more power from more places and I think RF is the most logical place to acquire/promote someone. BTW Oxtung, Doumit has 111% of his homers at DH, RF and C! Sorry, couldn't resist.

Tosoni is runnerup to Benson for the "worst year of my career" award. He is going backwards in the org, suffered injuries and not hit anywhere, except for his last day in AAA, when he went 5-5 and then was demoted.

If Span is moved, I wouldn't mind seeing how Parmelee can do in RF. Other candidates off the top of my head--Wilken Ramirez, Matt Carson, Plouffe, Doumit, and Mastroianni (another light hitting speed guy). I was hoping Joe Benson would be ready at midseason this year, but his year has been a disaster and he's trying to get it going with the Miracle.

Clear a spot in the outfield for a hitter The Twins currently start two outfielders, Span and Revere, who have good batting averages but slugging percentages under .400 and very low power numbers. It is my belief that they can't be serious about contending with two such starters in the outfield. Also, they have substandard to nonexistent power at other positions--2nd base and SS--so that too high a percentage of their home runs comes from two players--Plouffe and Willingham. They need extra base power from both corner OF spots and they won't get it with Revere. Span is a prototypical leadoff hitter, a speedy runner, and a good center fielder. He hits lefties very well, so that he isn't a candidate to be platooned. He has a long-term contract that is regarded as "team-friendly" and he is 28 years old. Span has shown that he can play any of the outfield positions well. He missed a lot of time with concussion/vertigo issues last year, but those problems appear to be in his rear-view mirror. Revere is an aggressive swinging singles hitter with tremendous speed. His speed helps him get on base, disrupts opponents when he gets on base, and allows him to roam far and wide to run down balls in the outfield. He also carries two big negatives--he doesn't drive the ball often enough for outfielders to play him honest and he has a weak throwing arm allowing others to take extra bases. This season, Revere is hitting well over .300 and has shown he can go get 'em in the outfield. I think that Revere has shown enough that the Twins should proceed with trading Span. They need to get good value in what comes back, hopefully in areas of need. Revere would succeed Span as the leadoff guy and while he wouldn't work the count like Span does, he has shown the ability to get on base and he has shown he can steal bases and distract opponents. For the short term a Span trade would get Revere's superior range in center field and most likely a less adept fielder in right field. Long term, the Twins have several candidates for center and the corners who could provide more punch but still provide good defense and range. A Span trade would put Revere in his natural position, potentially add talent to a position of weakness, and provide a position for another hitter with power on the team. Unless Revere goes in the tank or no one offers enough for Span, I think the incumbent Twins' center fielder should be moved.

It is a value judgement that Carroll is outplaying Casilla. The difference between them is OPS is so small that an official scorer's ruling or a lucky bounce could give Casilla a higher OPS. I would say that Casilla has played the best defense of the three middle infielders and his prowess on the bases is worth a bit more. Carroll's hitting numbers are pedestrian and powerless and his best years have been augmented by batting eighth in NL lineups and getting walked more than he otherwise would. The quote from me was that Carroll had never been a major league regular at one position and I believe that is the case. According to baseball-reference.com the most games he ever started at one position in one season is 102 (less than 2/3) and that was when he was 32. I like Florimon. I hope he learns to hit at the higher levels and can force himself into the argument for playing time in the middle infield. Just like Casilla, he hasn't had to climb past Ripken and Cano to get to the majors, but unlike Casilla, he has only had a cup of coffee in the big leagues at age 25. As for Carroll--he brings great versatility and durability to the table--despite minimal talent, he has carved out an admirable major league career. He has been a very good utility infielder because of those traits. I just don't think he should routinely be starting especially for a noncontender at 38 years of age.

It makes Casilla injury prone and/or disappointing. However, the gulf between a soon-to-be 28 year old and a 38 year old is pretty wide. Can Carroll honestly be expected to get better? Carroll may have played in more games, but he has never, ever been a regular at one position for even half a season. Has anyone had a career arc where they become regulars at 38 and have their best years then? Casilla could be a late bloomer--at almost 28, there is a small chance that he will improve to the point where he is pretty good. Florimon, at best, looks like a Casilla, but at shortstop. He's 2.5 year younger, but has eight big league at-bats and only this year cracked AAA.

Duensing throws mid-90s when coming out of the 'pen. I haven't seen him throw it that hard when starting. To me, that is a major difference. We have seen the same phenomenon with Perkins. Duensing has a three pitch mix and IMHO profiles more as a starter. I also believe that his value is much higher if he can successfully start. Regarding getting RH hitters out, I detailed his splits this year and last. In '09, he had a .269 BA against and a .742 OPS against and in 2010, he had a .282 BA against and a .751 OPS against. In summary, versus righthanders, this year seems about average. While those numbers aren't good, I don't think they make Duensing a LOOGy either. Given the dearth of good options for the rotation this year and beyond, I don't think the Twins should dismiss Duensing based on three strarts where he was stretching out .

It looks to me like Florimon's upside would be a low OBP, good speed and defense, bottom of the order guy. He isn't allergic to XBH, but he doesn't make solid contact often enough to put up good power numbers. That doesn't scream MLB regular. I still am holding out hope that his hitting improves to a point where he can be in a big league lineup and wow us fans with his defense. Back to the Alexi/Jamie/ Brian trio. We all know what we can get from Carroll--versatility, steady defense, OK OBP and no power. That absolutely says "utility infielder". It makes sense to me to decide whether Casilla is worth keeping in 2013--as noted above he hasn't played in over 100 games in a season in his career, but so far he's been healthy. Carroll could start once a week at short and once a week at second to rest the two younger players. If Dozier continues to spiral, especially on defense, start Carroll or Florimon there and if Casilla can't get it going by the end of this month, make the decision that he's not part of the future (DFA him whatever). Maybe Alexi can make himself tradeable, maybe he can get a contract for next year or maybe he gets nontendered in the winter.