stringer bell

To further illustrate my point about starting, Greg Gagne was the SS for both the '87 and '91 Twins. He never put up a single-season OPS+ of 100 in his career. His lifetime OPS+ was 83. Escobar (only 700 PAs) is a lifetime 85 OPS+ and in over 450 PAs this year put up a 102 OPS+. Gags was probably a superior glove to Esco, but not by much. I would say Escobar is "good enough". However, Santana and a couple of other minor league shortstops have a chance to be much better than good enough.

Disagree with your assessment Ash. I think Escobar is good enough to be a regular shortstop on a playoff team. However, it would be as the 8/9 hitter and someone that would be replaceable i.e. not a building block. The good news is that Escobar is reliable and versatile defensively and he took a giant step ahead offensively last year. The downside is that he's never been a selective hitter, he doesn't have much power and only average speed, which limits his defensive ability and eliminates the stolen base as a weapon in his arsenal. I think this limits his overall upside to above-average at best. Santana could be what Escobar is not. He has great speed and looks like a possibility as a top of the order hitter. He might have the ability to make the spectacular play. He could be a star. that potential opens doors that Escobar can't open. However, I'm not sure if he can be a good defender at the crucial position of shortstop. I think he needs to show he can handle the position defensively. Rather than move Escobar around, I think Santana could develop into an infielder/outfielder who could cover any of four or five positions short term including both shortstop and center field.

I know that Santana defied gravity somewhat, but there is no way a guy who hit well over .300 in over 400 plate appearances is going to start 2015 in the minors or on the bench. If Molitor wants to start him at SS, fine. However, there needs to be a backup plan if he struggles (hitting or fielding).

I think that if the Twins are committed to Santana at short, Nuñez' chances of staying a Twin take a big hit. A second utility guy with a rep as a below-average glove really doesn't cut it. I like what Nunez has to offer (speed, some pop), but if he's backing up three guys who figure to play every day and also behind Escobar, he isn't needed.

The three best hitters on the team appear to block EE, or maybe it is the three best players. He played a quality major league SS and hit very, very well and his reward is utility duty? Further, because the three guys manning second, short, and third were the three best players last year, his chances of getting a lot of starts aren't that good unless there is an injury. Finally, Escobar hit well from the right side. That would present a great chance if he was an outfielder or first baseman, but Plouffe, Dozier, and Santana all hit left handers very well. I think we've seen his ceiling, which is pretty good. If someone offered a good pitcher, maybe the time to trade him is now. Personally, though, I think EE will get his time on the field, just not right out of the box.

The general plan is fine. I think the prices for Santana (including a draft pick) and Rasmus will be too high. I think picking up a stopgap who can play center would work, and it probably should be a right handed hitter. Bourgos from the Cards, maybe, or Ruggiano from the Cubs. Denorfia is a free agent who is a plus fielder. The pitcher I'd most like to see the Twins land is Masterson. Another might be Anderson, who pitched for the Rockies last year.

It seems to be a knee-jerk reaction to sign an ex-Twin for every vacancy. I enjoyed Torii while he was here and respect what he has done since, but the Twins don't need guys deep in their decline phase.

Did I mention "pitching and defense"?

I don't think the Twins are that far away. Their top ten problems last year: 1) Pitching 2)Outfield Defense 3) Pitching 4) Pitching 5) Defense 6) Situational Hitting 7) Fundamentals 8) Pitching 9) Defense 10)Anderson. I expect rebounds from Milone and Nolasco with some regression from Hughes. I see big transition in the bullpen, but overall improvement. They can have a winning record or better in 2015.

I am neither pro- nor anti-Molitor. I know that he is very smart and knows his baseball. He will be a better interview than Gardy, but might wear on everyone faster if the Twins continue to be a losing franchise. I understand that the pitching needs to be upgraded, but finding an ace isn't easy. If it were, every team would have one. I personally don't think free agency is the answer. Most top-dollar contracts for pitchers just don't work.

The last two years, the Twins' bullpen has been incredibly stable. They've also been regarded as quite effective, especially when compared to the starting rotation. During the last leg of the season, the bullpen was neither effective nor efficient. I'm going to discuss the players who were on the club for most of the season.Six pitchers spent all season with the Twins and threw almost all of their innings in the bullpen: Swarzak, Burton, Fien, Duensing, Thielbar and Perkins. They all threw between 47 and 68 innings, with Swarzak again logging the most frames and Thielbar the least. With so many measures to view overall effectiveness, it is really hard to summarize the group, other than to point out that five of these six relievers gave up more hits than innings pitched. Only Glen Perkins struck out more than one batter per inning and all of their ERAs were over three. As a relief staff, the Twins didn't strike out many, but also didn't walk many. This wasn't a bullpen that overpowered hitters. As a group they were effective when they hit their spots and the balls hit into play found the gloves of the Twins fielders. Here's a brief thumbnail of each along with a projection for 2015: Thielbar: After having a fine rookie campaign, Caleb Thielbar pitched a pretty anonymous 47.1 innings. He was close to equally effective against left or right. Like most Twins relievers, he weakened at the end of the season. Thielbar is not eligible for arbitration, which increases his value. I expect that Caleb will be a member of the coming year's bullpen. Duensing: The WHIP is up, K's are down. Duensing was the only all-season reliever to have his ERA outpace his FIP by a substantial amount. I have liked Duensing because of his versatility and durability, but since he will be arb-eligible, he is a strong candidate to be non-tendered. I, for one, hope that the Twins find a way to keep the veteran lefty, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he is traded or non-tendered. Perkins: Publicly, the Twins are saying that Perkins is an All-Star closer and that his pitching arm is fine. While I am glad that there isn't something seriously wrong with his arm, I'm not convinced that his performance going forward won't become an issue. Perkins got his swings and misses and his strikeouts in 2014, but even before his dismal September, his velocity was down and he allowed a lot of hard-hit balls, not all of which should have been caught. He allowed 32 hits in 32 innings from June-August before his (injury-fueled) drop-off in September. Just about every stat went the wrong way in 2014. At the very least, Perk will have to make some adjustments. Swarzak: He won points with his manager and pitching coach by taking the ball when asked. In 2015 however he wil have a different coach and manager. Swarzak's role is long relief and they just aren't very valuable unless they can evolve into a late-inning role or a spot in the rotation. It looks to me like long relief is Swarzak's only role. Swarzak garnered four starts, with mostly unimpressive results and wasn't much better in higher leverage situations. The numbers say he regressed to the mean after a very good 2013. His WHIP was up, walks up and strikeouts down. Since he's arbitration-eligible and out of options, I expect Swarzak will be pitching for someone else next year. Burton: Burton was a solid performer in 2012, less solid in 2013, and started out horribly in 2014. He pitched better as the season wore on, and by the end of the season he was the Twins most reliable reliever IMHO. The warning signs started in 2013. His velocity was down, and it lessened the effectiveness of his out pitch, the change-up. The numbers point the wrong way--WHIP, hits per IP and BBs up, K's down. Burton was victimized by base stealers, unable or unwilling to keep runners close. The Twins pretty much closed the door on his return by buying out his 2015 option. The 33 year old Burton will be a free agent and I doubt the Twins will seriously try to re-sign him. Fien: Like Burton and Thielbar, Fien was picked off the scrap heap. His performance when called up in 2012 was excellent and surprising. He started strong in 2013, but faded. That script was followed in 2014. Fien was the principal eighth inning guy and did well holding leads. In his few attempts to close games, he couldn't get it done. Fien's two-pitch mix requires excellent command. If he's a little off, the ball can travel a long, long way. He allowed slightly more hits than innings pitched, struck out far fewer batters than previously and yielded some big innings. At 31, it is doubtful that he can improve much. Much like Swarzak, Duensing and Burton, it seems likely that we've seen the best these men have to offer. It makes sense to move several of the bullpen guys and replace them with younger guys with power arms. This concludes my "Postseason Reviews". To summarize, there are a lot of pretty good players already in the majors. The talent needs to be augmented by an improved pitching staff and maybe some premium talent that is getting close to arriving. Click here to view the article

I like Rosario a lot, but this off-season stuff shouldn't be given too much credence. It is a great opportunity for Eddie to regain his top prospect status and so far he has really taken advantage. There is a gaping hole in the outfield, and Rosario could be the answer. I'd like him to finish strong in the AFL and then have a good (or better) Spring Training before I reserve a spot for him on the team.

I just checked today's AFL game and Eddie Rosario got a double in his first at-bat. We Twins fans shouldn't get too worked up about minor league baseball played in Arizona in October and November. However, there isn't much else Twins related to follow, so all of a sudden it becomes important that Eddie Rosario is hitting .400 in off-season ball. Having said that, Rosario is following the script he needs to follow to make his Twins' debut early in 2015. He is undoing the tough season he had in AA and showing that he can play and excel with the best American prospects in baseball. As I write this, Rosario leads all AFL hitters in batting average. He is on the leaderboard in hits, stolen bases, and OBP. Most reports have him playing a more than respectable left field, with a couple of games in center. He has hit both lefties and right handers. To further his chances, Rosario needs to continue to hit in the remainder of the AFL and carry those results forward to Spring Training. I still think it would take a "perfect storm" for Eddie to break camp with the Twins, but with each success in the off-season, the perfect storm becomes more likely. I have said before that Aaron Hicks' two partial seasons with the Twins should not provide him with a leg up in making the club in 2015. His offensive performance was too dismal and his defense was adequate, certainly not enough to justify a roster spot. If Rosario outplays Hicks in the spring, he should be in front of him for promotion or for making the club. The Twins need to have more than Hicks and Rosario competing for a starting spot. With all the flux in the Twins' outfield, there is a chance that Eddie Rosario can undo all that went wrong in the past 12 months and claim a starting spot at some point on the 2015 Twins.

I don't think Mauer will put up MVP numbers, but I think he'll be far better next year. My one prediction is that one of Arcia, Santana or Vargas will be sent to the minors sometime this year.

Does anyone have a good idea what the level of the Venezuelan Winter League is? I looked at a few box scores and didn't recognize many names, so I am guessing it wouldn't be AAA+ or better. I know that the major leaguers often wait until later in the season to play, but right now it doesn't look more advanced than the AFL, that is my guess.

I like Turner a lot. He would profile as a regular catcher and Gold Glove (mitt?) contender. I suppose he would be a bottom-of-the-order hitter, but I think he could be a league-average hitter.

I saw Goodrum this spring and he's certainly long, but not bulky. He has plenty of speed and I think he has shortstop range and arm. It was always presented that he moved to third to give Polanco a long look. It probably enhances his value, as well.

Romero is older and has no positional flexibility. Romero's offense is okay, but probably no better than Escobar or Nuñez and he's pretty lousy with the leather. He might have had his chance when Nuñez and Plouffe went on the DL the same day, but he wasn't on the 40-man and the Twins are averse to losing someone for a two week or less call-up.

While I agree that checking on Maddon is the proper thing to do, I don't think it will make as much difference to the team whether he is hired or not. Inside the industry and amongst the die-hard fans, Maddon has a reputation (a very good one), but I think any manager candidate that the Twins have interviewed has a good reputation and some good ideas. As far as firing up the fan base, the part of the base that is still caring about the Twins (basically Twins Daily regulars) is going to be excited, but Maddon is not a big enough name to interest casual fans.

Regarding the Royals trading for Shields--is he an ace or a high-quality innings eater? They gave up a top prospect but ended up getting Davis and Shields for Myers (and Odorizzi). What that teaches me is not whether a team on the upswing should "go for it", but rather that pitching is the currency of the realm. The Twins, this year, and Colorado, seemingly every year, show that putting up good offensive numbers matters little unless you have sufficient pitching. This postseason is also proof that defense is important, it is just tough to quantify. Finally, if the Royals hadn't made that improbable comeback from down 7-2 in the eighth, would we be using them as a template? I don't think so.

The last two years, the Twins' bullpen has been incredibly stable. They've also been regarded as quite effective, especially when compared to the starting rotation. During the last leg of the season, the bullpen wasn't effective or efficient. I'm going to discuss the players who were on the club for much or most of the season. Six pitchers spent all season with the Twins and most of their innings in the bullpen: Swarzak, Burton, Fien, Duensing, Thielbar and Perkins. They all threw between 47 and 68 innings, with Swarzak again logging the most frames and Thielbar the least. With so many measures to view overall effectiveness, it is really hard to summarize the group, other than to point out that five of these six relievers gave up more hits than innings pitched. Only Glen Perkins struck out more than one batter per inning and all of their ERAs were over three. As a relief staff, the Twins didn't strike out many, but didn't walk many. This wasn't a bullpen that overpowered hitters, as a group they were effective when they hit their spots and the ball hit in play found the gloves of the Twins' fielders. Here's a brief thumbnail of each along with a projection for 2015: Thielbar: After having a fine rookie campaign, Caleb Thielbar pitched a pretty anonymous 47.1 innings. He was pretty close to equally effective vs. left or right. Like most Twins' relievers, he weakened at the end of the season. Thielbar is not eligible for arbitration, which increases his value. I expect that Caleb will be a member of the coming year's bullpen. Duensing: The WHIP is up, Ks are down. Duensing was the only all-season reliever to have his ERA outpace his FIP by a substantial amount. I have liked Duensing because of his versatility and durability, but he will be arb-eligible, he is a strong candidate to be non-tendered. I, for one, hope that the Twins find a way to keep the veteran lefty, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he is traded or non-tendered. Perkins: Publicly, the Twins are saying that Perkins is an All-Star closer and that his pitching arm is fine. While I am glad that there isn't something seriously wrong with his arm, I'm not convinced that his performance going forward won't become an issue. Perkins got his swings and misses and his strikeouts in 2014, but even before his dismal September, his velocity was down and he allowed a lot of hard hit balls, not all of which should have been caught. He allowed 32 hits in 32 innings from June-August before his (injury fueled) drop-off in September. Just about every stat went the wrong way in 2014. At the very least, Perk will have to make some adjustments. Swarzak: He won points with his manager and pitching coach by taking the ball. However, his coach and manager will be different in 2015. Swarzak's role is long relief and they just aren't very valuable unless they can evolve into a late-inning role or a spot in the rotation. It looks to me like long relief is Swarzak's only role. Swarzak garnered four starts, with mostly unimpressive results and wasn't much better in higher leverage situations. The numbers say he regressed to the mean after a very good 2013. His WHIP was up, walks up, and strikeouts down. Since he's arbitration-eligible and out of options, I expect Swarzak will be pitching for someone else next year. Burton: Burton was a solid performer in 2012, less solid in 2013, and started out horribly in 2014. He pitched better as the season wore on, and by the end of the season was the Twins most reliable reliever IMHO. The warning signs started in 2013. His velocity was down, and it lessened the effectiveness of his out pitch (change-up). The numbers point the wrong way--WHIP, hits per IP and BB up, Ks down. Burton also was victimized by base stealers, unable or unwilling to keep runners close. The Twins pretty much closed the door on his return by buying out his 2015 option. The 33 year old Burton will be a free agent and I doubt the Twins will seriously try to re-sign him. Fien: Like Burton and Thielbar, Fien was picked off the scrap heap. His performance when called up in 2012 was excellent and surprising. He started strong in 2013, but faded. That script was followed in 2014. Fien was the principle 8th inning guy and did well holding leads. In his few attempts to close games, he couldn't get it done. Fien's two-pitch mix requires excellent command. If he's a little off, the ball can travel a long, long way. He allowed slightly more hits than innings pitched, struck out far fewer batters and yielded some big innings. At 31, it is doubtful that he can improve much. Much like Swarzak, Duensing, and Burton, it seems likely that we've seen the best these guys have to offer. It makes sense to move several of the bullpen guys and replace them with younger guys with power arms. This concludes my "Postseason Reviews". To summarize, there are a lot of pretty good players already in the majors. The talent needs to be augmented by an improved pitching staff and maybe some premium talent that is getting close to arriving.

Buxton had his best day, nice to see. As long as he's not striking out a ton, I'm not too worried about his AFL stats, but it is always better when your top prospects excel.

Another productive day for Rosario: 2/4 with 3 RBI and 2 SB. He continues to lead the AFL in hitting at .435 and is second in steals (8). Despite only one XBH, Eddie is tied for fourth in RBI (10). Buxton had two singles and a run scored and Kepler had an RBI double and a walk in 4 PAs. Reed pitched a 1-2-3 inning, but Zack Jones walked three batters while retiring only one.

There was a lot of dissing of Kepler on the minor league thread, based on his "bad" year at Fort Myers and "slow start" in the AFL. Kepler finished pretty strong in the FSL (a pitcher's league) and his AFL numbers look pretty good now (much better than Buxton). He's young and he's missed much playing time with injuries. When I saw him in Florida, taking BP with Sano and Buxton, he looked every bit as impressive as the two mega-prospects. Of course, that was two and a half years ago.