stringer bell

After the back-slapping is done at Twins Way, the general manager should have time to take a long, hard look at the season that just played out. The Twins won 83 games and were competitive. The season was highlighted by one fine month (May) and a pluckiness that kept them from sinking too far when times got tough. The Twins pitching improved more than their metrics indicated while offensively the team scored more runs than their numbers indicated. The Twins scored 695 runs, while the league averaged 710. In 2014, the club scored 715 runs, ranking in the top half of most offensive statistics except for home runs. What changed? Plenty. In 2014, the Twins had better than average performance from a player at all nine positions. In 2015, they managed to have players with an OPS+ above 100 at three positions, and only one player (Miguel Sano) whose numbers could be classified as well above average. The team was dead last in on-base percentage and their top hitter had a batting average of .265. The 2014 had more than 100 more walks than the 2015 team, while accumulating 65 more strikeouts. Somehow the 2015 group finished in the middle of the pack in runs scored, but overall offense took a severe downturn. Part of that can be explained by personnel--the Twins got more than 450 at-bats from Eddie Rosario, who provided first-rate defense in the outfield corners instead of playing lumbering DHs and first basemen in the outfield. Regression hit the Twins hard as well. 2014 newcomers Santana and Vargas along with Oswaldo Arcia all struggled and were banished to the minor leagues, with Arcia not even being recalled when rosters were expanded. Full-time regulars Dozier and Plouffe saw their seasons fall off after seeing career bests in 2014. 2014 All-Star Kurt Suzuki came back to earth with a BA 40 points lower and his OPS+ falling from 104 to 67. Pitching was more of a mixed bag. The Twins' rotation wasn't great, but wasn't the embarrassment that previous editions had been. Only Kyle Gibson made it through the season without missing a start, but every starter had good moments. The bullpen, which all along seemed to be a weak link, was aided by the addition of a couple of guys via trade and one guy via demotion from the starting rotation. Also assisting in the staff's improvement was better, more athletic defense, particularly in the outfield. Still, the Twins still ranked last in strikeouts and first in hits allowed while yielding the second-fewest walks, a continuation of the much-maligned "pitch-to-contact" meme from previous seasons. Looking at the roster, it is a combination of veterans and young players with a couple (Dozier and Plouffe) in between. Suzuki, Mauer, and Hunter are all in the second half of their careers, while youngsters handle the other positions. The pitching staff had many over-30 guys pitching, including almost all of the bullpen. In general, the offense needs to improve by getting on base more. Too much of the team's power is concentrated in right handed hitters, and more speed would help. On the mound, more power arms are needed. There are specific questions that need to be answered, as well. Here are five questions that need to be answered in the off-season and my takes on each one: 1) What will Trevor May's role be for the 2016 Twins? May is one of the top arms on the Twins. While he wants to start and profiles to be a good one, I think he should be in the bullpen as the eighth inning guy, and perhaps as the closer. His stuff "played up" in the bullpen and he had several outings that were dominant. 2) How can the Twins augment the catcher position? Kurt Suzuki had a 67 OPS+ and his backups were dreadful at the plate. Suzuki was among the worst at throwing out base stealers (his pitchers didn't help much) and there were too many unblocked pitches. I think there are two options--acquire a backup from outside the organization or get a starting replacement also from outside the organization. I don't know who that player is, but I think a lefty hitter who is respectable defensively. Ideally, Suzuki should either share time or be the backup. 3) What of Torii Hunter? Hunter was a valuable presence who provided 22 homers, but he hit .242 with a .701 OPS at a premium offensive position. Hunter has stated that he doesn't want to be a part-time player and the Twins have top prospect Byron Buxton and minor league Player of the Year Max Kepler perhaps ready to help next year. Oswaldo Arcia also figures in here. 4) Is it time for Trevor Plouffe to be traded? He has led the club in RBIs the last two years, provided steady and improved defense and has become a team leader. However, Miguel Sano looks the part of a superstar and shouldn't be a DH at 22 years of age. I think that it is in fact time. Plouffe is a good player, but he shouldn't stand in the way of Sano. The Twins could perhaps fill the catcher gap by trading Plouffe. 5) Rick Nolasco is still under contract for two more years. He's been a total disappointment for the first two years of his contract. Can the Twins get out from under his contract? It would be great if Terry Ryan could slough off the contract, but I doubt it. I think Nolasco enters the 2016 season as one of the guys in the Twins rotation. That, in my opinion, seals the deal that May starts in the bullpen. It also indicates that JO Berrios and Tyler Duffey will have a mountain to climb in order to make the rotation to start the season. While it seems silly not to have the best arms starting the season, every rotation goes through changes over the course of the season. I see only eight guys on the short list of starters in the Twins' organization, including May. That isn't too much depth and might not be enough.

I don't think it's fair to judge Nolasco in a meaningless game. He hasn't been healthy for most of his two seasons. Also, I'll admit that he's made it damn tough to like him. He has at times seemed arrogant, disinterested and unhappy, all while making maximum money for his resumé. He's been a decent pitcher in the past and he hasn't put many innings on his arm for two years. It isn't out of the realm for him to come back and be effective next year.

If Plouffe isn't traded or if Hunter returns, it will be tough to shoehorn Vargas onto the roster. I'm not sure on his number of options remaining, but I'm pretty sure he can be optioned, so he could go down to Rochester again replaced by someone like Hunter.

Rather than editing, I'll comment on my own blog entry. I wrote this about two weeks ago and didn't publish until the last day of the regular season when the Twins' fate had been determined. No real changes to make, but I'm more in favor of new blood for a left handed reliever, rather than re-signing one of Cotts/Duensing. Also, with the struggles of Dozier and Plouffe noted, perhaps it would be good to have a true utility guy to fill in for them throughout the season. I guess Santana could fill that bill. I understand he has played second in winter ball. I'm pretty sure both Dozier and Plouffe would have benefited from a few more days off over the course of the season.

The Twins will enter 2016 after recording their best record since 2010. They have added several young players, most of whom are here to stay. As of today, they have some gaps, but overall have a decent team returning for next year. Four players are slated to be free agents--Mike Pelfrey, Torii Hunter, Brian Duensing, and Neal Cotts. Perhaps a player or two will be non-tendered. Candidates would be Casey Fien, Eduardo Nuñez, and Blane Boyer. Here is my current projection for the Opening Day 2016 Twins. It will have no rookies making their debuts and no trade acquisitions and I will assume that only one free agent is re-signed, either Cotts or Duensing. Pitchers: (12)--Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, Tommy Milone, Kyle Gibson, Ervin Santana, Tyler Duffey, Ryan Pressly, Alex Meyer, Cotts or Duensing, Trevor May, Kevin Jepsen, and Glen Perkins. Catchers: (2)--Kurt Suzuki and Chris Herrmann. Infielders: (8)--Kennys Vargas, Danny Santana, Eduardo Nuñez, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Trevor Plouffe and Miguel Sano Outfielders: (3)--Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, and Eddie Rosario Some of these predictions will look pretty silly, I'm sure. I expect Oswaldo Arcia to get a last chance to be a productive player. This along with Byron Buxton's poor offensive showing at the close of 2015 will be enough to get Buxton more AAA time. I would expect he will be patrolling center field before Memorial Day. Another candidate to make the team would be Max Kepler, who probably needs some time in AAA, but before 2016 is over will have a regular spot on the club. The backup outfielders would be the backup infielders and perhaps Escobar and I think it won't be long before an outfielder is promoted. I have Nuñez surviving another spring. He has had a good year in 2015. He's a pretty good hitter, has some speed and defensive versatility. It is very possible the Twins will choose to go another way with that roster spot. I have youngsters Vargas and Santana as bench players. I'm pretty sure Vargas has an option, so he could easily not make the team, but if Trevor Plouffe is traded, current DH Sano becomes the third baseman and Vargas could be the primary DH. Backup catcher is a problem. The usual suspects from this season appear, but perhaps Stuart Turner will hit enough to bring his strong defense to the majors. I don't expect it on Opening Day, but I think it will happen sometime in 2016. Three starting pitchers have long-term contracts. Until and unless they are shown to be ineffective beyond repair when healthy, they are in the rotation. The best starters then are Milone and Gibson. That leaves the heralded JO Berrios to spend some more time in AAA, which would also be a smart business decision. I have listed Duffey as a bullpen option, despite his good work in the last quarter of the 2015 season and Trevor May as a big bullpen arm. Taylor Rogers could convert to to relief and take a spot I've given to Duensing/Cotts. The Twins also could go with O'Rourke, more of a pure LOOGy. I think Ryan Pressly had an underrated season before getting injured and my hope is that Alex Meyer has found it as a relief pitcher--he's been effective for the last several weeks. Meyer, May, Jepsen, and Perkins could be a very effective game-closing combination. I didn't list Casey Fien or Blane Boyer, veterans who have performed quite well this season, and in Fien's case for several seasons. Unfortuanately for them, their stuff doesn't play as well in this high-velocity, high strikeout bullpen era.

How about a six run first?

See the permutation thread. If the Twins are Option B, they would go to Option A (probably Houston) and, if they won, entertain the LAA of A.

Hicks is my most improved. It shows how bad he was when this year's stats are considered so good. I still have questions whether he will ever hit enough to be a regular corner outfielder, but he has established that he can hit and field well enough to be a starting center fielder.

Sano is already a fine player, but I don't think he's the MVP or Twins Rookie of the Year. My vote for MVP is Dozier, Rookie of the Year Rosario and Pitcher of the Year would be Gibson.

Great point about the back end starters. Looking solely at ERA, here is the Twins rotation:Gibson 3.96, Milone 4.04, Pelfrey 4.09, Santana 4.10, Hughes 4.43. No dominant starter for the season, but no embarrassments either. I left Duffey and May off on purpose--too few innings, but they were both good (Duffey better than good) in their starts as well.

Cleveland is basically dead. Now roll over the disappointed Tribe. Big win! Let's go Oakland, Seattle and Detroit (up 6-1 in the sixth)!

A little more than seven months to go.

Molitor is a genius!

Geez, I was kidding!

Perkins for the eighth? Ducks flying objects thrown!

Hicks is very good coming in, throws well, but going back? Not so much.

Kluber out after 6. He lost his last start to the Twins and is down two with three innings to go. What are the odds that he doesn't win a game or perhaps loses both, when facing Hughes coming off a wobbly three inning start and Milone as an emergency starter coming off a shoulder injury.

Should be a short leash for the soft-tossing left hander.

For sure! I think it will take a 6-1 or 7-0 week to make the playoffs. Most likely 6-1 might mean a Game 163. 5-2 might get them to a play-in game to the play-in game, but that is probably it.

I wonder if the Tribe were 75-79 if Kluber would be pitching.

Why would Milone have a high price tag but no trade value? If he has produced, he has value. If he hasn't he doesn't. The fact that he is cost-controlled should add to his trade value.

The Twins have one week remaining in a regular season which has seen them stay relevant throughout the entire season. One thing that has transpired in the course of the season is that a regular lineup has developed. The nine players with the most plate appearances on the year fill the nine positions on the field and in the batting order and these nine players are the ones getting the bulk of playing time during the stretch drive in September. I looked at yesterday's box score and made a couple of mental notes. The first was "no .300 hitters" and the thought was no one is close. Three players that won't qualify for the batting championship (Sano, Escobar, Rosario) could have the best batting average of the nine regulars. The likely high qualifier is Joe Mauer and he's hitting only .266. The next note to myself was "no truly bad hitter". The lowest average (.240) belongs to Dozier, who slugs and draws walks, so his OPS should be decent. Kurt Suzuki is toward the bottom (.244), but he's a catcher and not many catcher compile good hitting stats. Here's a look at the Twins' nine regulars for 2015 and where they rank in selected offensive stats: Name PAs BA OPS OPS+ OPS rank Sano 300 .277 .940 153 1 Escobar 420 .268 .767 106 4 Mauer 636 .266 .716 95 12 Rosario 450 .265 .744 98 10 Hicks 365 .259 .727 97 9 Plouffe 608 .245 .744 100 8 Suzuki 464 .244 .622 70 11 Hunter 540 .242 .712 91 11 Dozier 673 .240 .771 107 8 For those devotees of WAR, here are the numbers courtesy of BBRef: Dozier (3.0), Plouffe (2.3), Rosario (2.3), Sano (2.1), Hicks (1.6), Escobar (1.5), Mauer (1.5), Suzuki (0.5) and Hunter (-0.5). Here are my conclusions: Recalling Sano, Rosario, and Hicks and making Escobar the regular shortstop earlier might have won another ballgame or two. Outside of Sano, there are no standouts here--Dozier had an All-Star first half, but despite the 28 homers, his numbers are off from last year. The Twins' offensive numbers have taken a step back, but for the position players, the biggest improvement has been defense.

Hi everyone! It looks like the Eddie and Pelf show tonight. I have some advice. Don't give Pelfrey much rope. Edit: No rope at all!

Confidence is a big part of it for Perk. I said on another thread that he's got two above-average pitches, but neither of them are dominating. He has to have great command and trust his stuff. Even with that, sometimes he will get hit. It seemed that most of the hard-hit balls in the first half were at someone, not now. To the question in the title, I trust Perkins to be a reliable bullpen arm, but he's not elite.

Well, no. Bert was pitching for the Rangers then and he had left Minnesota firing double barreled one-finger salutes to the few fans left in the stands for Twins' games. My daughter was born that day and I got home just in time to hear it mentioned that Bert had pitched a no-hitter.