stringer bell

Not part of the problem.

It is fun to see youngsters Sano and Buxton both hitting. IMHO, success in 2016 was predicated on All-Star performance from these two a la Lindor and Correa, but they struggled as 23 year olds often do. Add to that the complete meltdown of the pitching staff and you have a disaster. I do think the 2017 Twins will score plenty of runs and hit a large number of homers. They absolutely need to get to the middle of pitching stats. They have allowed more than 100 runs more than the next worst staff. No one should be safe on the pitching staff.

Let me preface what will undoubtedly be a long entry by saying I am a Dozier fan. I have spoken to him at Spring Training a couple of times and like the young man. I believe he has been the Twins MVP for each of the last four seasons (counting this one) and I have no doubt that he is the team's best player at this point. Certainly, he isn't flawless, but the Twins need more players like Brian Dozier, not less. Over the course of this long, horrible season, Brian Dozier has often been a hot topic of conversation in Twins Territory. He isn't shy about stepping up to a microphone, my wife and daughters think he's good-looking and he's been a regular with the club as their second baseman for four years. If someone casually follows the Twins, they know who Dozier is, so it figures that he would be a topic of conversation. Let's see why Dozier has been discussed so much and what I think should be the conclusion for the topic: First of all, as the Twins started the season, Dozier couldn't get it going. After a bad second half in 2015, Dozier came out of the gate slow in 2016. Through all of April and May, Dozier barely reached .200 and the signature power was lacking. Had the league figured him out? Was the 28 year old (turned 29 in mid-May) regressing already? Should he be benched or put at the bottom of the order? My thought, then and now, was that it is a long season. If a guy is a good player, he'll come out of a funk. Robbie Cano had a similar stretch at the end of 2014 and beginning of 2015 and Cano might be a Hall-of-Famer. Along for the ride early in the season was the question whether BD was too pull-happy and if he used the whole field, he would be a more consistent and productive hitter. My thought was that Dozier needed to be able to hit the ball with authority when he was pitched away and as the season has progressed, he has accumulated some oppo hits and several to the middle of the field, the key being that he hit the ball hard, not a lazy popup or routine fly ball. Moving on, Dozier has spent most of the season hitting #1 or #2. Many have thought it wasn't ideal for a guy whose calling card is big power for his position to hit first or second. My thought then was that the Twins simply didn't have a better option. Dozier takes some of the longest at-bats on the team, he's walked a fair amount since arriving in the majors and he's a good base runner who doesn't clog the bases for those behind him. Ideally, he should have hit lower in the order to make a few more of his homers multi-run shots and I think that where Dozier hits in the lineup in 2017 will be a hot controversial topic if he is in a Twins' uniform next year. As the season rolled toward the All-Star break, the call to sell and rebuild the Twins included Dozier's name prominently. He had some value and the club is/was going nowhere in '16, so cashier him for a prospect or two and let Jorge Polanco handle second base. In June and July, Dozier recovered from his slow start. He put up a great line in June, posting an OPS for the month in excess of 1.000, he slowed in July, hitting only .240 but still putting up an OPS of .824. Trade Dozier at the deadline? Didn't happen and IMHO shouldn't have happened. He hasn't slowed down much since his monster June and with a team-friendly contract and relative youth, his value should only be higher in the off-season or at next year's trade deadline. Another topic that has emerged is defense. After a truly stout year in 2013, Dozier's defense has been categorized as below average by most metrics. While I don't believe Dozier is elite defensively, my eyes tell me he is in the average range. He makes a few outstanding plays (probably more than any other Twins player) and doesn't get to some balls he should, perhaps because of shifting, maybe because the position of shortstop has been in flux since he became a second baseman, maybe because in three of the last four years, the team never had a shot at contention. I don't know. In checking BB Ref, Dozier lags in zone rating, but is above average in runs saved. I see it as a wash, making Dozier average in the field. I'm waiting for someone to refute this, but in the final analysis, defense probably is an "eyes of the beholder" topic. Since the All-Star break, Brian Dozier has been en fuego. He's hitting .320, with an OPS of 1.091 and a mlb-leading 21 homers. I guess that puts to rest the "first half player" meme that was circulating among the diehard fans remaining. The question that stems from his performance both the cold April and May and his elite performance since is what to expect going forward. I have turned over in my mind what the most likely trajectory of Dozier's career figures to be. One extreme is Dan Uggla, who like Dozier wasn't highly regarded, got a chance in his mid-twenties and became a star in large part because of his power numbers. Uggla fell off a cliff in his early thirties. An opposing example is Jeff Kent. Kent was an okay player, but not even a full-time regular until he was 29. Starting from age 30, Kent won an MVP, was an All-Star five times with three different teams and posted OPS+ numbers over 119 every year until he was 39. This seems to be the extremes for power-hitting second basemen. Is Dozier going to be productive for most of another decade or is regression going to meet him around his 30th birthday? My answer is that no one knows for sure. It appears to me that Dozier has made adjustments to become a more complete hitter without diminishing his best asset--home run power. IMHO, it makes him a candidate to sustain high-end performance, although the end of 2015 and April-May of this year give a good argument that he could turn into a pumpkin at any time. In the last few weeks as the tumult in my life has moved Twins baseball on the back burner, I've managed to check the box scores, cluck over the disastrous pitching and watch highlights of games. Dozier has been front and center continuing his power surge. He now projects to exceed 40 homers and if he hits just one more long ball, he will have hit more in a single season than any Twin since Harmon in 1970. 40 homers would be a Top Ten season in franchise history dating back to the Senators who started playing at the turn of the 20th century. Only Harmon and Roy Sievers (once) have ever hit 40 homers in a single season in franchise history. Dozier is projected to score and drive in over 100 runs, also a rare feat, especially for guy who has hit first or second most of the season. He may or may not make 40 homers, 100 RBI or 100 runs, but on such a bad team those numbers stand out big and bold. Although I'm not a big fan of WAR, it does represent a quick and dirty assessment of value and Dozier's 5.6 WAR for this season is in the Top Ten in the league. Because the season has been so bad, I don't think Dozier has gotten the attention he deserves for his huge season. He won't win a Silver Slugger or MVP, he won't win the HR championship or set any other records, so there hasn't been any national coverage, but his overall season and particularly his production since June has been off the charts. Now in the season's final month, most Twins fans are thinking about the future (with good reason). Augmenting a terrible rotation is Priority One and trading Brian Dozier to get pitching help makes sense, since his value should be at an all-time high. This argument is buttressed by the play of Polanco, who has hit over .300, showing good on-base skills, but a questionable glove at short or third. I believe Jorge Polanco is best suited to second base and I believe adding him for Dozier wouldn't be all bad since Polanco is a switch hitter and wouldn't be prone to long slumps with his swing and approach. However, unless the payoff is monumental, Brian Dozier should be the Twins second baseman next year. He has had a season for the ages despite the wreckage around him, he's only 29 and if the last 100 days are an indication, he might get even better. Finally, he's been a solid citizen off the field. If the club wants somebody as the face of the franchise, they could do worse than Mr. Dozier. Just a couple more thoughts before I summarize--Dozier has been durable. Since becoming the team's second baseman, he hasn't been disabled and has missed only a handful of games with injuries. Secondly, my observation is that he is a good teammate. He doesn't sulk, cheers for his mates, appears to like their company off the field (loved the State Fair video) and despite having strong religious views, doesn't put that in the face of his teammates or the media. I have mentioned many of these thoughts in previous threads on the forums of Twins Daily. I find this player to be fascinating, especially in light of his minor league career and low status when drafted. I think Brian Dozier is a fine player who hasn't gotten the appreciation he deserves for this, his best season. I will continue to be a Dozier fan, hopefully as he continues to be a Minnesota Twin, but even if he's traded. In the event that he is traded, I will be pulling for the players acquired in return and hope they make the Twins better.

Wimmers career to date reminds me of former first round pick Kyle Waldrop, who had a brief, forgettable career. I hope Alex has more success.

Good for Wimmers. His wife was at ST two years ago. She is an attractive lass IIRC. They called Alex' control problems "Steve Blass disease" at the time, I don't recall if it turned out to be something physical. Then came the TJ surgery. I guess baseball humbles almost anyone who plays, no matter what the pedigree.

Nice to see a well-executed inning where the Twins maximized their runs without hitting a homer.

I believe "Colour my World" was the Prom theme for both proms I attended.

I have pondered publicly whether he might be another Dan Uggla (fell off the cliff in early 30s) or perhaps Jeff Kent (went from solid to near HOF in his 30s). Certainly it is most likely that he is somewhere in between, but if he keeps getting better ala Kent, then it would be smart to keep him, but if he turns into a pumpkin, it is probably best to sell high. IMHO, there are indications both ways. Dozier's bread and butter is driving middle-in fastballs and if he can't turn on them, his whole makeup would have to change. However, this year BD has been able to hit the ball to center and right with more authority, thus getting more hits that way and keeping defenses somewhat honest. Without the data in front of me, he seems to be hitting more ball farther to left-center and straightaway center and hitting fewer 360 foot homers down the line. That bodes well for his future. I think most hitters pull grounders and Dozier is no exception--I haven't seen him roll many through the vacant right side--but I've seen a pretty good increase in hard-hit balls to the gap and right field. He's made himself into a star and at 29, he doesn't seem to have reached his peak, so maybe a bit more like Kent than Uggla.

I am driving the Dozier bandwagon. I think he should have been team MVP each of the last three years. I also think his overall defense is average, despite subpar metrics. Having said all that, he isn't indispensable. If the Twins can get a big enough return, they should trade him.

You're missing the point. Both Uggla and Kent were hitters with plus power, especially for the middle infield. Kent was a good player until his early thirties and became a borderline Hall of Famer because he mashed well into his thirties. Uggla fell off a cliff. With Dozier also being a "power for his position" guy, I've wondered if he might fall off the map if he couldn't catch up with a good fastball or if he could adjust as Kent did. I do lean toward the sustained fine performance for Dozier, maybe not at the level of Kent, but certainly above average. Kent's top OPS+ season through the age of 29 (Dozier's age now) was 111 in less than full-time play. Starting in 1998 (age 30) he was an All-Star five times for three different teams with an OPS+ of 119 or better for each year for 10 years. I'd venture to guess that Dozier's OPS+ today is superior to Kent's at age 29, but I'm not that good at math to say for sure.

Good take Nick. Both sides of the Dozier argument have been laid out for a long time, but his performance since June 1 has put BD back in elite territory. Any return for him should be more than substantial. I would say one "can't miss" or established player plus a couple of good to premium prospects. The team can build around him or build from what is returned for him. I lean toward keeping him, because he has shown he can make adjustments to keep improving and he is durable. Early in the season, I was contemplating whether his career would be more like Dan Uggla or if it would be more like Jeff Kent. I am now leaning to Kent.

Gomez is a shadow of his former self.

Pretty sure Dozier's best season for WAR (and just about everything else) was 2014. Brian tailed off dramatically in 2015 after being named to the All-Star team.

For you young 'uns, the Twins had a platoon third baseman named Mike Cubbage, who threw lollipops to first much like most of Dozier's soft tosses to the first baseman. There were comments that his throws to first were measured in hang time, but on balance he was an okay third baseman. If Polanco's arm isn't quite up to speed for short, he still might have enough to be an adequate third baseman.

I agree that it can and should be done. I guess i won't be upset if Polanco isn't in the lineup every day. IMHO, this is an audition for a utility role next year. If Dozier were moved, or Sano can't hack third base, Polanco could be an everyday alternative as soon as next year.

Don't have time to read the whole thread, but I heard Molitor's comments about Polanco. His best position is second, and second best is third. Dozier and Sano will play most every day, so I guess Jorge will have to move around to get his starts.

On one side of the game, the Twins could easily have enough to contend, Offensively, the upturn of the last few weeks has been fueled by players who haven't come close to reaching their peak and have outstanding potential buttressed by players the Twins have control over, who shouldn't be on the down side of their careers. Pitching and defense are the big concerns and the Twins need help both in the bullpen and especially the rotation. IMHO, if no changes are made, only Gibson and Santana are locks for a rotation in 2017. Bullpens are always year to year, but based on performance so far this year Kintzler, Rogers, Pressly, and Abad should have golden tickets for 2017 leaving at least three spots there. Defensively, the current 3B has been historically terrible (SSS) and the tandem at SS has been far below average. Catching is also a defensive weakness and the regular catcher probably won't be back next year. Could the Twins acquire and promote enough pitching to contend? It is a long shot, but I don't think it is totally out of the realm with the young, talented nucleus of position players. If they truly want to contend, they need to trade their parts that don't fit or have relatively higher value (Suzuki, Nunez, Kintzler, Abad) and bring back players that could help as soon as next year. They have room on the 40-man and plenty of prospective vacancies on the pitching staff.

It is like Danny Santana at shortstop, both players have the raw tools, but neither have the consistency or focus to be even average at their "natural" position. I have to say, Sano has been brutal at third, with small dollops of astounding. I am coming around to Miggy being a first baseman, but there is the Mauer contract.

At the All-Star break, the Twins sit with a terrible 32-56 record and it is only that good because they've won the last three series against three AL West clubs. For most of the season, the Twins have scored the fewest runs in the AL while allowing the most. I wasn't totally surprised that the Twins pitching staff was bad, but it just doesn't seem right that they would be last in runs scored justifiably because they weren't getting on base and not hitting when they did manage to get runners in scoring position. With good work of late from their offense, the Twins have improved in offensive categories. They rank 10th in runs scored, 8th in OPS and slugging, 9th in OBP and 10th in homers. I would expect those numbers to continue to rise. There's plenty of talent and a lot of them are starting to realize their potential. Certainly, the pitching needs to improve, both the rotation and the back end of the bullpen. However, some guys have stepped up. Fernando Abad was brilliant for the first quarter of the season, but has faded. Brandon Kinzler was signed to a minor league contract, but recalled this spring and has been pretty good. Taylor Rogers looks like he belongs in the bullpen and Ryan Pressly and Michael Tonkin have shown enough to hold spots in the Twins bullpen. There is enough offense to be a good team soon. There isn't enough pitching. The Twins don't have an ace and their most consistent veteran is supposedly on the block. I am of the opinion that every trade made by the Twins from now until they are a true contender has to bring back pitching or catching. It is my belief that the Twins will be good again when their staff is better than average. I'm willing to bet the members of that staff will be homegrown or acquired in minor deals or the Rule V Draft. Signing free agent pitchers is like going against the house in Vegas. You might win once in a while, but long term the house always wins. Ryan has attempted to sign pitchers to eight figure (per year) contracts and it hasn't worked out. I expect the Twins to be more competitive in the second half of the season. I sincerely hope they trade a couple of veterans to allow the kids to play. Chargois and Berrios can cut their teeth in the major leagues. Some of Suzuki, Plouffe, Nuñez, Santana, Nolasco, and Abad should be sold off. I really don't think they are that far away, if they can get middle of the pack pitching. The other factor, which I think is overlooked in the Twins demise this year is defense. The pitching staff has enough trouble getting three outs in an inning and too often, because of misplays, a fourth or fifth out has been donated to the opponent. If the Twins get a new catcher or catching tandem, I would hope they get a solid defender who can limit opponent's running game. Also, another glaring deficiency has been shortstop. Eduardo Nuñez is below average as a shortstop and Eduardo Escobar has had a poor year playing short IMHO. A trade of Nuñez would probably net better defense at short

Grossman is young (26), cheap and under team control for four years after this one. Keep him around!

I agree that Santana is the best of the free agent veterans and that the Twins should have a veteran in the rotation, but Hughes and Nolasco are both under contract next year and even if Hughes can't pitch right away (or ever) there's still Ricky. If they can get something for Erv without paying his entire salary, it is probably best for the player and the team.

I think avoiding 100 losses is an achievable goal. I am with the optimists that believe there is quite a bit to build on and I don't really think the Twins are that far away from contention. The young outfield of Rosario-Buxton-Kepler, with Grossman as the 4th OF, looks really good to me. The Twins need better pitching and that's what should come back if any of their roster is traded at the deadline.

Yep, the Twins are bad. They almost certainly will lose 100 games and finish last in the AL Central. Management has been trashed regularly on Twins Daily and has deserved the scorn of the fan base. Articles have been written and several threads have discussed trading just about every veteran on the roster. I submit to everyone that the position players aren't that bad and not that much needs to be done. There is enough talent to score plenty of runs. Pitching, on the other hand, is a problem. The only home grown pitcher in the rotation for more than a year is Kyle Gibson. Tyler Duffey has had a couple of moments, but his numbers this year don't inspire confidence. There is talent but I don't know when or if it will ever develop. The bullpen has evolved a bit this year. The supposed end of the bullpen has imploded almost completely--Glen Perkins has a career-threatening injury, Kevin Jepsen was just DFAed, and Trevor May has been both injured and ineffective. I think that reforming the pitching staff is Problem #1 and Problem #2 is defense. All of that has to do with suppressing runs. Last year, for whatever reason, the rotation and bullpen performed much better than it had in all of the 90-loss seasons. They ranked in the middle in runs allowed. This year the Twins are last by a long ways in runs allowed. They are something like 1-34 when they score less than four runs. Too many veterans occupy spots in the rotation and too much money is invested in them. Some of those guys need to go. They are over thirty and most likely will never be better than they are now. The Twins bullpen has traditionally carried several guys who depended on their defense to make plays behind them. The bullpen has evolved somewhat, but isn't that effective. What transactions need to happen? I think at least one of Nolasco/Santana has to go. The live arms in the minors need to be tried, even if they aren't that effective. On the trade front, several players could go. I just saw an article on mlbtraderumors.com that lists Kinzler as a sneaky trade candidate, Abad could be on several team's radar and several position players might be gone--Nuñez, Suzuki, Plouffe (if healthy), perhaps Grossman--and most of this is addition by subtraction or moving on to the next season. The team could get better fast in scoring runs if Sano, Buxton, and Kepler live up to the hype and become solid regulars or better than that. Maybe the pitching and defense can get better fast. IMHO, it's harder to project pitchers than position players. I don't think it's a rebuild, it is a recasting.

OK, what happened there? There is an infield fly rule, so if it was really of pop fly, shouldn't Butler be out?

I forgot about Butler on the A's bench. Hmmm, maybe the Twins could pick him up, DH-1B can't have enough of those guys.